Pretty impressive low at GSO of 24. It was 27 at 4:30 and 4:45 and dropped 3 degrees and back up in those 15 minutes. Noticeable cold pockets north of the airport as well on my way to work this morning, about 3-4 degrees colder than near the airport.
The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas
I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently
It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field
Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size
The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development
It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.
The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall