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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
  2. olafminesaw
    Getting a bit of a "halficane" look
  3. olafminesaw
    Not a nice fresh delicious cinnamon roll. The one that's been sitting in the case at Panera all morning, growing steadily more stale.
  4. olafminesaw
    Fair enough. I feel like we've been spoiled by a lot of RI hurricanes lately
  5. olafminesaw
    Looks like it took a big gulp of dry air
  6. olafminesaw
    Bermuda is a tiny target to hit. It fits nearly within the DC beltway with room to spare. Bermuda has had a number of brushes with major hurricanes and a handful of direct hits. But never a cat 4 plus. With SSTs being way above normal, it is not outside the realm of possibility for Bermuda to have a strike from a cat 4.
  7. olafminesaw
    Pretty neat graphic, you can watch an animation of the obs across the island as the storm approaches https://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=ISLAND_AWOS&user=
  8. olafminesaw
    Yesterday's high of 73 is the coolest since May 15th! This morning felt refreshing as well
  9. olafminesaw
    Evident eye on radar. Puerto Rico getting pounded with rain
  10. olafminesaw
    That's 20+" of rain for Bermuda over the next few days, primarily from a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event).
  11. olafminesaw
    It appears Debby did cool waters somewhat significantly right at the coast, but should recover quickly
  12. olafminesaw
    Keep it in your pants East coast!... sometimes I think they do this on purpose
  13. olafminesaw
    I am guessing rain will be on the low side of forecast in the triad. Many approaching 3", but if the HRRR is to be believed, heavier rain bands will be more hit or miss from here on out. Still many hours to go. On the other hand wind way over performed. The NWS was calling for gusts under 30 mph, but GSO has reported 5 out of the last 6 hours with gusts over 40mph and one gust to 47
  14. olafminesaw
    For the triad a dry slot approaches. Remains to be seen how much it fills in.
  15. olafminesaw
    Some homes in that area but not a heavily populated area. May have been a direct hit on the solar farm though. (Didn't realize we had anything at that scale in NC)
  16. olafminesaw
    It's really picked up speed. At this rate she will make landfall by late afternoon/early evening
  17. olafminesaw
    Wow, up to 60mph, I wasn't expecting that at all after the NHC reduced landfall strength to 50mph
  18. olafminesaw
    Seems to be trending West with the track after landfall. May be a big event for upslope areas especially near the VA border
  19. olafminesaw
  20. olafminesaw
    Yeah I mean think of the most extreme example, Harvey. Obviously a totally different situation, but most of the extreme rainfall fell after if dropped to a weak TS/TD. I remember reading somewhere that the majority of fresh water flooding from TCs comes from TSs and TDs
  21. olafminesaw
    It's been a bit of a trend in that direction, but hard to buy into the GFS when it's such an outlier from all other models.
  22. olafminesaw
    The 11 am advisory has Debby right at the coast just south of Tybee island. It is still expected to reach 60 mph before landfall and maintenance TS strength deep into central NC. Keep in mind even though the track makes it look like Debby won't spend much time over water, it won't make landfall again for another 36-48 hours
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems like every flood event there's somewhere that's supposed to get crushed that doesn't and somewhere that's on the fringe that gets way more than expected. It's near impossible to predict where so the forecast is always smoothed out, and an unrealistic depiction of reality. Which frustrates the general public, but there's not a great alternative.
  24. olafminesaw
    It does seem like most of the coastal areas will get a dry slot as the center passes. A lot of models push a lot of the moisture to the west side of the storm once the storm has made it back over water and starts moving inland. This is where the bad flooding will occur. Probably impacting the SC coast the most.
  25. olafminesaw
    Raleigh now in the high risk of excessive rainfall day 3 (Thursday), the Triad in the moderate.
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