olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Joaquin being the premier example (although ultimately the hurricane went OTS)
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Ian is about halfway across Cuba and seems to be holding up well this far, although it is just now getting to the higher terrain (about 1,500 ft hills)
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The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario
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Starting to move into shear, but as other have said, a more easterly movement would mitigate
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Yeah, sometime winds take a while to respond to improvemants on structure, but I suspect by the time they make the first pass, it will be at least 85 kts
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And just like that, a couple of hot towers firing near the eye
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The takeaway here is the turn towards the coast that the GFS has as well. Not good indeed
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Seems to be merging/consolidating eyewalls, but as you said, it's hard to tell based on radar quality
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Hard to tell, but seems like it's trying to form an eyewall inside the larger original eyewall, kind of like what would occur during an EWRC. I'll be curious if this dissipates as the outer eyewall contracts, or if it becomes the dominant eyewall and they meld together
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One thing to note is that winds aren't actually pushing into the bay from the south until Thursday afternoon, due to approach angle. This may mitigate a GFS solution somewhat as the storm is starting to weaken. Probably too little too late, but still
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The GFS is a hair east through 57.
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Gotta love the NAM
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Updated surge forecast upped to 5-10'
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Per radar, Ian is still trying to close off the eyewall. Judging by the past few hours this will likely take at least a few more hours to occur. Until it does so, Ian may maintain only modest strengthening. At the very least, land interaction may end up tightening the core starting in 12 hours or so.
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Structure from a few hours ago
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Yeah, I think we will still have a good amount of track until it passes over Cuba. Meanwhile it appears that the structure has degraded somewhat, perhaps ingesting some dry air
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Yep, I think largely due to initializing stronger. Pretty close to the GFS track, maybe a little quicker
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One bit of good news for Tampa is the new moon was yesterday
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There are some 1,500 ft mountains for Ian to traverse, it will be interesting to see how this may impact the storm. It may tighten up the core Neat how the convection around the eye lines up with the radar which shows the eye trying to close atm.
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Stalls out and crawls NNE from here. Not only is surge a factor of strength and proximity to the coast, but also where the stall occurs
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The whole cone is pretty uniform as far as climo goes
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Euro ens north of the OP, with a cluster into Panama City. Still, a tight cluster right around the OP as well
