olafminesaw

Fairly strongly worded disco for a d2 slight risk from SPC. Just depends on capping will allow development while instability is higher. ..NC/VA... Low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across much of NC early Friday morning, with higher values near the coast. This moist air mass is forecast advect northward throughout the day amid the southerly low-level flow ahead of the approaching outflow, with the northern extent of this better moisture acting as an effective warm front. Isolated thunderstorm development along this warm front is possible, where wind profiles support supercells. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible with these storms if updrafts can mature. After this initial isolated threat, more widespread thunderstorm development is possible as the outflow moves into the region amid mid 60s dewpoints and moderate buoyancy. Damaging wind gusts within any more organized bowing segments are the primary severe risk.

Although it's been hot the past couple days, it's certainly been nice to soak up the sun. Let's lock in a stretch of weather like this with highs in the low 80s, dews in the 50s in mid July.

Probabilities for the Piedmont:

Hmmm

I would imagine there are quite a few similarities to a typical Carolina Alley outbreak, just further south.

I was able to find two cases: Galveston:https://www.tornadotalk.com/galveston-tx-tornadoes-september-12-1961/ Georgia: https://www.weather.gov/chs/TornadoOutbreak-May2008 There's a possible third in Tampa but I can't seem to find any info on it (I'm not counting the 1966 long tracker as F4 damage for that one was more inland). There are others that are more inland (one West of New Orleans) but I decided to research only truly coastal locations.

Is there any kind of precedent for violent tornadoes in coastal cities? I feel like they are extremely rare (the recent New Orleans tornado nearly meeting the criteria).

Covers a more populated region this time around, including Atlanta

The most classic a hook echo, supercell, cc combo I've seen east of the Appalachians. Holy cow that's not good

51 mph gust at GSO. Consistently gusting in the mid 40s with this slug of moisture

I've experienced more wimpy tropical storm warnings than what we've been seeing this morning (wind gust to 40 at GSO). Won't take much convection to mix 50-60 mph gusts to the surface. I'm not anticipating 60 +, but could be fun (although these high shear low CAPE squall lines always seem to be underwhelming)

As per usual at this range, some question as to whether discrete supercells will form ahead of the main line. Regardless, unusual to see the word "outbreak" this early in the SPC disco.

Looks like the only EF3+ tornado in New Orleans going back to 1980 was in 2017 (an EF3). That damage definitely looks like it could be in that territory. https://youtu.be/CygyZrLEyTo

About as incredible of nighttime footage as I've seen https://www.facebook.com/ScotPilieWx/videos/651457422801824/

More discussion on the Central/Western Sub-forum. It's kinda awkwardly between subs, especially with not many posters in AL/MS

This one must have taken some extra time to write A northern-stream and southern-stream shortwave will phase over the MS Valley on Friday night, with an associated surface cyclone moving northeast from the Deep South, deepening to 990-995 mb by the time it reaches north-central NC early Saturday morning. Deep southerly flow from this system will help draw plenty of low-level moisture from the Atlantic, with PW values of 1.25-1.75 inches. Thus bands of WAA-induced showers will move in from the south on Friday evening and Friday night, when POPs increase to likely and then categorical over much of the area. Not expecting any thunder during this period given a complete lack of instability with a low-level inversion in place. However, this changes in the late overnight hours into early Saturday morning, when southerly low-level flow really starts to increase as the surface low approaches and deepens. Thus outside of the far NW, temperatures and dew points will start to rise through the 50s and even lower-to-mid-60s, with MLCAPE reaching as high as 300-500 J/kg. Meanwhile a squall line associated with a strong cold front will be moving through the area around 09z to 15z. While instability will not be too impressive due to the time of day and widespread precipitation, some damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are still possible with the squall line given the very strong low/mid level wind fields and rich low-level moisture. The one exception is across the Triad region, where the cold front should probably arrive early enough to shut off any instability and threat of storms. The most favorable location for severe weather is in the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain, which will have the longest opportunity for WAA and daytime heating before the cold front moves through. This is also where 0-1 km shear and 0-6 km shear look to be at least 40-50 kts and 60-80 kts, respectively, which is more than enough to support supercells and tornadoes. Thus the SPC has introduced an enhanced risk for severe storms in the far SE, and has expanded the slight risk to include the US-1 corridor and points east. The slower the frontal timing the better the severe threat as it would give these areas more time to destabilize. Total rainfall of around 0.75-1.25 inches is expected on average across central NC. This isn`t enough to cause any significant flooding concerns, but some localized urban and poor drainage flooding can`t be ruled out. Widespread precipitation will come to an end from west to east with the passage of the cold front on Saturday morning. However, our region will be in a strong pressure gradient between the rapidly- deepening 970-980 mb surface cyclone just off the coast New England and high pressure building over eastern TX and the lower MS Valley. Thus strong NW winds gusting as high as 30-40+ mph are expected during the day and into the evening. This will result in temperatures initially in the 50s and 60s early Friday morning falling into the 30s and 40s through the day. As the mid/upper trough swings through on Saturday afternoon, models show potential for a few wet snowflakes to fall across the NE Piedmont and especially the northern Coastal Plain, as temperatures aloft will be falling to well below freezing. However, with surface temperatures still above freezing during the afternoon and having been well above freezing over the past week, ground temperatures should be too warm for any accumulations to take place

The hires NAM has temps falling from 52 at 5 am to 37 at 7 am. I'm suspicious that the cold will hang back, which will prevent all but a token flake or two. Anything that does fall will be unlikely to stick due to our usual March factors that shall not be named. Still, a little white rain will be a welcome sight before spring comes out in full force

Some indications of a snowflake or two Saturday morning/midday for the western/northern Piedmont. The wind chill would make Saturday afternoon frigid by January standards.

Looking forward to next winter ready? CPC to probs to dash your hopes and dreams (ok, I realize this is meaningless)

I found this video go be super helpful in understanding the situation. Covers everything but the ideological side of things

I've seen a ton of different takes on what the true motive behind the invasion of Ukraine is. My current impression is it has mostly to do with distrust and resentment of the West as well as a desire to be taken seriously as a nation (which also looks back at the USSR's former "glory" and even beyond). What's your take on what motivates Putin's actions?

Rather impressive soundings last night and this morning

Wedge in all her Glory

Yikes! They also reported 26 and zr two hours later and an hour after that 33 and heavy rain.The corresponding sounding at 0z.