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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Hilary was forecasted at 105 kts on it's first advisory (skipped straight to 35kt TS). Pretty similar in terms of model consensus for a powerful hurricane at this range.
  2. olafminesaw
    Not a lot of steering in the medium range, it's crawling on the Euro at around 150 hrs. May make for a tricky forecast wrt the timing with the trough.
  3. olafminesaw
    Wild to think of all the water that would push into the bay of Fundy
  4. olafminesaw
    I've noticed the GFS has a bias for making hurricanes way too large. Can anyone back that up? Not really going to matter if it stays off shore, but if it does approach the East Coast, it's something to keep in mind as the hype machine gets going.
  5. olafminesaw
    Still, cloud cover making a difference early. Yesterday's GFS had us at 93 at 11 am, it's currently 79.
  6. olafminesaw
  7. olafminesaw
    Wowzers
  8. olafminesaw
    Will we reach 100 on Friday? NWS doesn't think we quite get there. The EURO, GFS and (long range) HRRR are all above 100, with the GFS hottest at 105. The UKMET, ICON, and NAM are all in the mid to upper 90s. I am inclined to believe the GFS is too hot of course, but reaching 100 remains at least a realistic possibility. Thankfully a relatively dry heat thanks to mountain downsloping, with dew points in the low 60s.
  9. olafminesaw
    I know! Don't think I've ever seen that, even with hurricanes that are already cat 5s
  10. olafminesaw
    The Euro and GFS both have temps over 100 on Friday at GSO (102 and 105). This would be the first 100 degree day since 2012 and the latest in the season since 1954. On average GSO reaches 100 about once every 5-10 years.
  11. olafminesaw
    Just in general I think the past few years. Going back to 2018, the highest temp of the year has been 95 or 96 every year.
  12. olafminesaw
    Smol
  13. olafminesaw
    Models did pretty well at handling QPF for Socal.
  14. olafminesaw
    Weenie alert issued for New England. Preposterous GFS runs possibly posted on Twitter over the coming days.
  15. olafminesaw
    In a pretty rugged area. Wonder if it triggered any landslides.
  16. olafminesaw
    Definitely wouldn't think the upcoming period will be totally dead
  17. olafminesaw
    Kinda looks like it's starting to orient more N to S, which would be bad news bears for whoever gets stuck under the band.
  18. olafminesaw
    The first real push of moisture of the main event making it's way into the high risk area. I would imagine the boiling hot waters of the Gulf of California will only intensify banding as the event progresses.
  19. olafminesaw
    Lots of fish activity
  20. olafminesaw
    Already flash flooding in southern Nevada
  21. olafminesaw
    May just miss peak. It's about to move over much cooler waters.
  22. olafminesaw
    Isla Socorro, which is about 80 miles East of where the center passed, recorded sustained winds of 45 mph and gusts of 70 mph
  23. olafminesaw
    Seems the inner core is still quite small
  24. olafminesaw
    Climo is beginning to work in our favor, about 2/3 of the time the prior two weeks are hotter than the upcoming two weeks.
  25. olafminesaw
    As much as it's disappointing to have missed the peak, this is vital data in terms of determining how quickly Hilary will regain strength. I suspect it's mixing out a bit of dry air ingested during the ERC and is just now starting to restrengthen, since the ERC completed several hours ago
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