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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Absolutely good storm tracks and the 540 line nearby they whole run. Of course 0Z was much less enthusiastic, so as you say we really need this to get inside 5 days to take seriously
  2. olafminesaw
    Even including the Dec 2018 snowstorm in the data, the last 5 years have been abysmal, with 38% lower than normal snow over that span. Mor than half of the snowfall in the last 5 years came from the 2018 storm
  3. olafminesaw
    Let's see if this one gains any traction. Not a typical system in our area, almost like a clipper
  4. olafminesaw
    True. 40 degrees drizzle wedge is what we do best!
  5. olafminesaw
  6. olafminesaw
    At least we won't have to endure storm threats 10 days out?
  7. olafminesaw
    Make or break is the first week of February
  8. olafminesaw
    For sure. it's currently 21/11 in Birmingham Alabama. Little Rock has been below freezing since Saturday afternoon. Also the projected difference in temps between just east of the mountains and just west is wild for tomorrow morning. Negative teens in Eastern TN and teens here, or 52 degrees below average in TN and 15 degrees below average here
  9. olafminesaw
    The 6z GFS features a period with 7 out of 8 days having measurable precip. Might as well just swap climates with Seattle
  10. olafminesaw
    Welp. Seems about right.
  11. olafminesaw
    What in tarnation is under these returns?
  12. olafminesaw
    Yeah I'm really getting deja vu on this one so that's not a good feeling. But I do think the orientation and Eastward progression of the cold air is better this time.
  13. olafminesaw
    Looking rather toasty around day 10-14. But signs of another pattern change after. We need a hard reset for early February anyway. Anything after the first week of February is normally drippy slop, which I'm not really about
  14. olafminesaw
    You just couldn't help getting premium so you could see how much we suck in fine detail
  15. olafminesaw
    The first system is more of a threat up close to the VA border. No matter where the band of snow falls it's going to be relatively light and unlikely to accumulate outside the mountains. The second threat looks actually somewhat promising for the coast where they may end up with a surprise inch or two due to better moisture/dynamics.. unless we can trend towards a stronger system, the triad may be left high and dry on this one
  16. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile Portland is getting a major snowstorm for the second year in a row.
  17. olafminesaw
    Dry as a bone
  18. olafminesaw
    So far it looks to me like the GFS is caving to the Euro
  19. olafminesaw
    While I don't think a cave from the rest of the models is likely, especially with the Euro ensembles being a bit more amped than the OP, my worry is if you average it out with the rest of guidance you end up with late development that crushed the NE, but leaves us with poor dynamics/warm surface temps. The counter to this fear though is, it's good to see the GFS generate decent moisture on the backside even after the low passes well to our NE. We want the LP to stay weak and ride the boundary.
  20. olafminesaw
    Yep, always a good sign when the Mid-Atlantic forum is starting to get nervous about suppression
  21. olafminesaw
    Get's squashed, but pretty close to something good.
  22. olafminesaw
    The UKMET is quite amped and warm, good to see the GEFS cold and suppressed
  23. olafminesaw
    Not a ton of snow, but streets would be a skating rink in that scenario for the Triad.
  24. olafminesaw
    This looks decent I think
  25. olafminesaw
    The 18z GFS is much more Euro-like in it's evolution. It's just a little too strung out/suppressed to get the job done.
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