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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Delayed, but still gets the job done. Lots of ice for coastal areas
  2. olafminesaw
    I'm definitely worried the phase will just keep getting delayed and it will only be a storm for Wilmington to VA beach
  3. olafminesaw
    Definitely more east, but still fairly amped. Supports the continued idea of a big hit for the coastal plain
  4. olafminesaw
    Still...not totally caving.
  5. olafminesaw
    Maybe 80% chance of happening. Storm isn't really supposed to get going until mid-day, even for the more amped solutions
  6. olafminesaw
    I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27th
  7. olafminesaw
    Lol, the triad went from 12" to 2" of snow on the UKMET. Definitely supports the idea not only of more suppressed, but also for significant coastal impacts
  8. olafminesaw
    GEFS looks more amped through 90
  9. olafminesaw
    Seems like Rocky Mount may end up doing better than the Triad. I have a feeling that although we will have long duration and less mixing issues, dry air may reduce the max potential from playing out
  10. olafminesaw
    Ok so far we've got Euro and NAM in the amped camp; GFS, icon and RGEM in the suppressed camp, and UKMET and CMC somewhere in between
  11. olafminesaw
    The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification.
  12. olafminesaw
    Certainly bad news for central VA. However, the GFS has taken big steps towards more amped, so I think the I-85 corridor is looking good for now
  13. olafminesaw
    She's a beaut (GSO)
  14. olafminesaw
    Yeah, I've definitely noticed this on the less amped solutions. Could end up as a SE VA special, depending on the timing of the phase.
  15. olafminesaw
  16. olafminesaw
    At the same time, we saw models bit by bit, speed up the timing of the changeover to sleet. Of course this had mostly go do with the storm slowing down and the ULL cutting west of the Apps. I do think in general, the models had a reasonable grasp on the temp profiles in the end. Point is, I think most of the time outcomes have more to do with the track of the low, strength of the high, etc. than bad physics of the model
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    Ice for many. Still, very long duration
  19. olafminesaw
    Just keeps reloading
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Looks like it's developing something in the gulf for the weekend though
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah, a big advantage to these type of setups is it's pretty easy to score a light to moderate snow event. A big hit, however is a bit more of a thread the needle scenerio. If a lp system develops along the boundary and deepens, it can bring in warm mid level air and cause mixing issues along the southern fringes. There is a fairly narrow jackpot zone, and the northern fringe struggles with dry air, but gets nice cold powder
  23. olafminesaw
    Yeah, just really jumped all over the place. Showed the range of outcomes which was helpful I think.
  24. olafminesaw
    The icon looks good for a long duration moderate event for the climo favored regions of the central NC Piedmont (the Icon is trash I know, but better than discussing, well... not weather)
  25. olafminesaw
    Considering how the GFS ensembles have a tendency not to vary too much from the op, it's encouraging to see a bunch of members with decent hits
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