olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Really hard to predict track with the system behind it having some influence and possibly Fujiwara effect. A weaker system should come more south though and they are leaning hard on the Euro -
A slow ramp up but probably starting sometime between 3 and 5 am
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Area of highest winds seems to be expanding rather than increasing. Consistent with most models in this regard.
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Mostly clear with some thin cirus and a handful of little whispy clouds zipping along at a quick pace in Greensboro. Strange sunset lighting with more clouds cover to the East muting the blue sky. Rather breezier than I would have expected although the bendy oaks can be decieving. Hoping for a slower landfall and thus experience a little of the fun in the AM (even though it shouldn't get too exciting anyway)
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Yeah, doesn't look stacked at all (more evident on loop). Kinda neat though!
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Ophelia has a rather unusual trajectory, moving NNW at landfall. I can't find any TSs or Hurricanes in the NOAA database along the NC coast that are close. Most move NE, with a number of outliers moving more W or WNW
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Higher winds should be pushing inland through the afternoon
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The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh
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60 mph at landfall
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This is a good point, because reformation adds uncertainty to the track. Hopefully the 18z HAFS will shed some light on the evolution. Seeing all that lightning arcing around the circulation leads me to believe this is developing rather quickly.
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It will be nice to get the hurricane models in on the action as well
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Also moving more due N rather than NE, as depicted by the GFS, at landfall. Indicates more impact further inland. I think I95 East is a near lock for a moderate impact event. And between Raleigh and I95 is still up in the air depending on track. The Western piedmont should be relatively low impact as of now
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I really think it just feels this way. We've gotten a lot more detailed maps and so much more data to sift through over the past few years. Most of the time it's people paying too much attention to outliers. In this case I do think we have a lower confidence forecast than normal
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The 6z Euro is really keeping it weak and offshore
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First pass suggests current intensity of 90mph is about right. Need to wait for it to sample the southern eyewall, but they got 75 kts in the northern eyewall
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The GFS is quicker to develop, and well west. I think the faster it can develop the more chance it has to move inland.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023
olafminesaw replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Time to start paying attention to our next tropical(ish) threat. Whether or not it gains tropical characteristics, we could see higher winds than one would normally expect from a system of it's strength, due to the interaction with the high to the north. Heavy rain possible for the coastal plain, with the I95 corridor being the current cutoff for heavier rainfall (subject to adjustment East or west) -
2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
A little home brew weenie bait -
The Hellenic National Meteorological Service per wikipedia.
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Mmm. Cinnamon rolls
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Yep, 30 mph sustained winds at Hatteras and 10-15 foot waves. 2 to 4 feet of Coastal flooding as well.
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Storm total from yesterday 3.18 at the gauge about half a mile from my house. The 30 minute total of 1.8" and the 2 hr total of 3.16 are both about 25 years floods per the precipitation frequency server. I was driving home in it near peak rainfall rates, thankfully my route didn't have any real low spots, but it was some of the toughest driving conditions I've been in
