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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. My guess is that over half the ensembles will be OTS, based on the more northern track early on this run.
  2. Really just a function of being a typical peak season letter.
  3. They're going to need to retire the letter I
  4. I guess at this point a further south track in the mid range means higher odds of landfall somewhere in the US, and beyond that is a crap shoot.
  5. The trough is lifting out quicker than last run.
  6. The trough is lifting out quicker than last run.
  7. That is obscene. A landfall in the NE would bring on a lot of comparisons to Sandy, but Sandy was such a truly unique storm.
  8. Something I've always wondered: Why do ensembles tend to group together so much, if the purpose of ensembles is to simulate chaos? Is it because there is an error (or errors) they're all missing which might have huge downstream implications?
  9. Thank goodness the Euro only goes out to hour 240.
  10. Joaquin is fresh in my memory. Storms just have a way of escaping land. 12z models should be interesting.
  11. Possibly looking like Chesapeake Bay demolition run, part 2.
  12. Maybe 10 minutes behind Tropical Tidbits.
  13. Sorry for the borderline banter, but boy oh boy would this member be about worst case scenario.
  14. I'd say the odds of a Major making landfall in the US are over 50% at this point. Which is obscene at this range.
  15. Already a beast, Irma is going to be a huge ACE producer.
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