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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. The LSX / STL area vertical wind profile has improved quite a bit as the low-level jet has started backing.
  2. Which is what we’re just about seeing now:
  3. Better lapse rates aloft will help to some degree, but time will tell soon. High res guidance shows surface temps spiking up over the next 1-2 hours, so we’ll find out soon if that verifies.
  4. Ugly veer-back signature in the wind profiles right now across central Illinois. Think the early convection played a role. High res guidance does show improvement with time and that jives with mesoanalysis (better wind profiles advecting in from MO). It’s going to be a few hours before kinematics support sustained, organized severe storms in IL.
  5. It’s an ever-evolving setup, but I see two main areas to watch based on morning trends: 1. Eastern Iowa closer to the surface low. While low-level moisture and surface heating may be less impressive than areas further south, steeper mid-level lapse rates and stronger low-level shear should compensate. 2. West-central/central Illinois on the southern flank of lingering convection. Here, dew-points are likely to be in the mid to upper 60s. Despite less impressive lapse rates than points NW, stronger surface heating and quality low-level moisture should yield moderate to seasonably large instability. Low-level shear is a bit of a grey area, as models show less here, but one wonders if a reinforced warm frontal boundary in the wake of ongoing convection may help with locally enhanced SRH.
  6. Beware early day convection... I was a bit bullish last night. Not going high risk was the right call. Convection over the Ozarks is on a trajectory to move into central/northern IL by late morning and midday. The area most consistently progged to have the best environment may actually be southeastern to east-central Iowa. The area is aided by limited convective overturning and some dry slotting as the surface low winds up in the Missouri Valley. I could still see multiple scenarios yielding some tornado potential in northern Illinois: 1. Mixed/messy storm mode, but still a threat for embedded supercells. The tornado threat here would probably be more short-lived as the instability field is fragmented and/or storms interact with each other. 2. “Last minute” storms fire near sunset in a broken, arcing line. Models have gone back and forth with this, but it’s still a possibility. With respect to Chicago... I wouldn’t completely call off a tornado threat, but the combination of convective overturning and their easterly displacement from the greater risk zone leads me to believe they’ll probably dodge a bullet here.
  7. Oof. Granted it’s mainly 12z/00z data, but SPC climo doesn’t show any >63F RAOB dews at ILX until early April. For DVN, there are none until May. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/
  8. FWIW, NSSL WRF has some of that early day, elevated junk, then initiates across south-central/southeastern IA by 21z. To the east, it barely convects at all in NW IL until around sunset. A key difference with the HRRR is that it shows a trough-like feature ahead of the cold front, that initiates convection earlier and slightly farther NE.
  9. I didn’t realize there are already fairly widespread 66-68F dews across southern IL. Sure, the warm front may have trouble making much northward progress prior to midday, but dews in the mid to upper 60s in the warm sector look quite likely, barring some unforeseen massive junkvection in the morning.
  10. Verbatim, it keeps the warm front down around US-136 through about 19-20z. A lot of that early convection quickly advances over the warm front. Elevated convection/hail threat. Dew points are about 3F lower than the HRRR, but the parameter space around the NE MO/SE IA/NW IL area is still highly supportive for tornadoes.
  11. The synoptic signal is strong. Mesoscale and global models more or less in agreement that there’s at least modest destabilization ahead of the cold front. Even with the HRRR being a bit overdone with dewpoints, it still yields an eerily volatile setup. With low LCLs, fast storm motions and large low-level instability, expect multiple long track tornadic supercells. It’s hard to imagine this not going high risk, in my opinion.
  12. There may be a slight SW nudge, but if I’m looking at the data correctly, it looks like the occlusion process is slower/delayed. Testing this image embed:
  13. There has been a subtle trend from a model consensus of slightly slower/southwest. I think northern (possibly central) Missouri may be in play here more so than areas north of DVN. The HRRR is not backing down. In terms of warm sector moisture quality, the latest HRRR brings 67F dews to I-70 in Missouri by 15z. Assuming that warm sector is largely undisrupted, the result is impressive low-level moisture and instability for such a kinematic environment.