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About Quincy

- Birthday 02/03/1987
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http://www.quincyvagell.com
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KOKC
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Moore, OK
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The outliers are shifting east and there’s more support for a wide right turn, than a rogue landfall left. I’d stick near the mean. Of course it could waffle a little either way, but there’s a higher probability for this to hit NS than for the Cape to see landfall. SREFs are going the same way. A few kept showing a left hook into SNE. Now those have tightened up to the east.
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Granted the track with Lee is unique, we’ve seen this same thing play out almost every year. A tropical system threatens the East Coast. It’s not unprecedented for landfall, but it’s relatively uncommon in most cases. Model noise shows a few runs that either make or threaten landfall and people start freaking out. I did play into the hype a bit, but it’s time to accept that any substantial westward trend is done What percentage of the model runs/ensemble members showed a New England landfall over the past 3-4 days? 10%? 20%? 5%? I still think there’s a legit possibility that the Cape and parts of coastal Maine are affected with tropical storm force conditions and some flooding, but anyone hoping for a repeat of Bob, Gloria or Sandy are going to be disappointed.
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You actually want slower movement now, so there’s less interaction with the initial exiting shortwave. Less opportunity to get tugged east. The models seek to be locking in. There’s some noise, but I don’t think there’s room for any major shifts west or east now that we’re getting inside of 72ish hours.
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Keep in mind, this thing is going to bend back N and possibly even NNE for a time around the Atlantic ridge, before a likely shift back N/NNW. Not seeing any interaction with an approaching shortwave across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. That will be key if there are any hopes left for a westward turn. I imagine it won’t go much more west than the current consensus, but you never know.