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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. Large dew-point depressions as well, although an area of upper 50s dews over north-central Kansas as of 19z should advect into southern Nebraska. A locally enhanced severe threat may develop in this vicinity where the shear/instability overlay will be more favorable than points south.
  2. It's still a long way out, but have to wonder if Thursday may feature an early season west-of-I-35 threat from the Texas panhandle into the central Plains. Wind fields strengthen ahead of a trough ejecting east from the Desert Southwest. Even the Euro shows an area of mid to upper 50s dews with convective precip ahead of a dryline. The quality of moisture return appears to be the biggest question at this stage. Friday seems like the best threat day at this point, especially if models slow down a bit more as they already have over the past few days.
  3. Elevated WAA thunderstorms are ongoing across southeastern Kansas, feeding from a plume of 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE. It will be interesting to see if this convection leaves an outflow boundary that could influence afternoon storm development, and/or if this convection eventually becomes near-surface based as it spreads east into Missouri. Either way, fairly rapid moisture return is noted with a 10F dew-point increase at JLN over the past two hours. Based on the trajectory of these storms thus far, they should have little if any negative effects to afternoon convective development
  4. NCAR ensemble guidance is rather bullish as well with instability:
  5. SPC has delineated 5% tornado probabilities for the immediate AR/KS/MO/OK border region, including Joplin, for today. Assuming morning convection doesn't destroy the environment, some of the higher end model forecasts for instability (locally 2000+ J/KG) should be realized to about as far north as PPF-SGF. Early day convection could persist and become routed in/near the surface by afternoon/early evening. This has been shown in several consecutive runs of the HRRRX/HRRR and recent 00z NSSL WRF. A conditional chase day continues, as the terrain and road networks remain favorable for the first few hours of robust storm development, before convection moves into the more hostile Ozarks through the evening.
  6. Thursday PM is gradually becoming more interesting with respect to a localized severe threat across the southeastern KS/southwestern MO/northeastern OK/northern AR vicinity. The large scale pattern is not particularly interesting, but a wave of low pressure is modeled to develop over eastern Kansas Thursday afternoon and drop southeast into the Ozarks Thursday evening. The more conservative 12z EC and 00z GFS show a plume of modest instability, on the order of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, streaming into southeastern Kansas by 00z Friday amidst mid to upper 50s dew-points and 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear. At face value, this supports at least a localized severe threat. The usually more bullish NAM brings dews into the lower 60s in the same area with CAPEs around 2000 J/kg. Low level winds around south-southwesterly are still favorable given a vertically veering wind profile, as winds in the upper levels veer to WNW/NW Thursday evening. Forecast hodographs in the 0-3km layer become enlarged immediately ahead of the system with an increasing low level jet. A subtle vorticity wave in the progressive flow regime appears to be allowing a wave of low pressure to form along the front. With respect to severe, the convective mode is complex, as elevated storms may form just ahead of an effective warm front Thursday afternoon, displaced from more favorable moisture to the south. A cluster of storms may initiate in the vicinity of the surface low shortly after peak heating, with a lack of large scale forcing. The 00z 4km NAM solution drops a broken line of storms into the Ozarks Thursday evening, but this may be overdone due to bloated moisture return/instability. Otherwise the shear profiles are favorable for severe, so if overnight model runs continue the trend of better moisture return, the SPC could introduce a slight risk area in upcoming day 2 convective outlook(s).
  7. substantial 0-2km shear sampled with the 03z LZK RAOB:
  8. A very narrow window may exist for a few supercells ahead of the cold front from northeastern OK into eastern KS and northwestern MO before the storm mode becomes linear, but the greater focus for prefrontal cells should lie from AR into much of MO and perhaps even IA. The HRRR has been ramping up parameters in the narrowing warm sector of the lower Missouri Valley and even as far north as southern MN. I'd watch two areas in the warm sector: Northern MO and southern MO/northern AR. This is also a setup that could feature a rogue supercell or two in eastern OK, although CAMs have been inconsistent with initiation there.
  9. New day 1 outlook has one of the most expansive 2% tornado probability areas I can recall:
  10. Cell interaction is about to take place in the Joplin vicinity...
  11. A beastly environment too:
  12. Low level shear is gradually increasing, though winds are still south or just west of south in the vicinity.
  13. Sitting in Mayflower now, as the past hour has been eerily similar to how a certain late afternoon transpired a couple of years ago. We'll see what the tail end of the storm cluster does as it approaches I-40.
  14. The cap continues to erode away at LZK via 21z sounding, but I agree that the best window for severe is still at least a couple hours away, closer to 00z.
  15. Very favorable wind profile via 21z ILX sounding: