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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Moore, OK

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  1. Witnessed a tornado in central Kansas a short time ago:
  2. Another derecho could be forming across northeastern Kansas. Pressure falls are noted ahead of the convective system. Topeka’s 00z sounding sampled 1432 J/kg of DCAPE.
  3. Been chasing the storm cluster in southwestern Nebraska. Keeping a distance to get some structure photos, but there may have been a brief tornado or two underneath there. (Via other storm chasers)
  4. To echo @Chinook, forecast hodographs look rather lengthy, thanks to the substantial shear mentioned above. If storms don’t get too clustered, you could see at least a couple long-track, intense supercells. Severe hail would be the most likely hazard. Low-level SRH is forecast to modestly improve after 00z, but I’m not sure the tornado threat will be fully realized. This is thanks to storms tending to merge and grow upscale, but a tornado or two could form. Other supercells seem probable across the Colorado Front Range and possibly northeastern New Mexico as well. Tuesday could be a rather active day across the region…
  5. It’s nice to see rain and storms across the southern High Plains. Hopefully the pattern continues so we can keep chipping away at the drought.
  6. Chased down in he Permian Basin today, because June decided to start off with another crashing cold front. Going to take a break from chasing for a while. The pattern looks below average anyway.
  7. Several semi-discrete supercells formed from the Texas panhandle into northern/western Oklahoma and southern Kansas on Tuesday. I had pretty low expectations going into the day, so I’d say the storms outperformed, despite being HP beasts.
  8. Started the day in Sioux City and made the decision to go south. It was a race against the clock, but I opted to target eastern Kansas. I chased (or attempted to) a couple of semi-discrete supercells in the Flint Hills, but with trees and lack of roads, I bailed south for isolated cells closer to the Oklahoma border. Those storms started to fade rather quickly, but I was able to get a couple of photos of the southernmost cell, before calling the chase off.
  9. Well, shear/instability are there. The parameter space in Minnesota is high-end with some anomalous values, but that doesn’t mean the setup was going to produce a bunch of discrete supercells. I suspect we see some QLCS tornado reports. Kansas is still iffy, but maybe they squeak out a tornado or two around sunset. Even there, storm modes have been mixed.
  10. Not really a big surprise. Also doubts down in Kansas, but the event is still young.
  11. Higher-end wind profiles for sure…
  12. Challenging storm chasing today and tomorrow, despite higher than average tornado probabilities. Today looks to be a close call with convective initiation prior to sunset in Nebraska. Do you drift west and hope for storms coming off the High Plains? Wander north into eastern South Dakota and hope storms can mature, despite weaknesses in the wind fields? Or hang in northeastern Nebraska until time runs out? Definitely reminds me of 6/17/14 in terms of timing. I don’t think storms became established until after 00z. First tornado reports were shortly after 01z. Tomorrow appears to have three plays: 1. Chase the SPC/parameter space bullseye near the MN/Dakotas border. Race east across MN with tornadic supercells likely, but storm motions will be fast and storms may ultimately form an MCS. 2. Play farther south, near the NE/IA border. Storm motion will be more W to E. Question will be how many sustained cells will persist into Iowa? IA has a bad rap for storm chasing. Seems to bust most of the time, but goes bonkers once in a while. 3. Kansas. The not-so-classic Kansas chase setup. Does a storm or two become established? Could play up near I-70 or even go for a Hail Mary down by the Oklahoma border. Good luck to all chasers!
  13. An interesting setup tomorrow with several nuances that make for a difficult forecast. I doubt we will have high confidence on details until at least mid to late morning. The synoptic setup shares some DISTANT similarities to the 6/16 - 6/17/2014 sequence. I am not calling for the same evolution, but I do recall the Pilger day and similar surface features. The difference here is that we're a few weeks earlier in the season and the moisture field may be somewhat fragmented, resulting in more capping and delayed initiation. Interestingly enough, 6/17/2014 was a late initiation day in the same general area (northeastern Nebraska), with storms not firing until only a couple of hours before sunset. Anyway, I attempted to roughly illustrate the current mean HREF surface map features, effective 21z/4 PM Sunday. The area to watch is likely the triple point, somewhere in central/south-central Nebraska. I wouldn't say it's a true front, but it appears as if a surface trough will drape south from an area of low pressure over eastern North Dakota, toward a low near the Kansas/Nebraska border. A dryline will probably intersect the low at an effective triple point. Low-level moisture fields appear to be fragmented, as a moisture gradient may exist, displaced slightly to the east, over Iowa. There, strong capping will likely preclude convective initiation prior to loss of daytime heating. Storms could fire along the trough (both across eastern Nebraska and farther west toward the High Plains), but it seems as if the best shot an initiation, perhaps only 1-3 hours prior to sunset, would be near the triple point. We could see early day storms also bring a hail risk to the Upper Midwest and might there be some warm front action across Minnesota/Wisconsin as well? Maybe even attempts at convective initiation along the trough over the eastern Dakotas? Definitely an odd, complex setup. Some models struggle to convect prior to 00z. If initiation is too soon, there may not be adequate boundary layer moisture recovery across Nebraska. The sweet spot seems to be somewhere over the eastern half of Nebraska, around 6-9 PM, assuming that the cap is breached and storms can form near/ahead of the triple point. If storms were to fire on the northwest side of the trough/low, they will be displaced from better moisture/wind fields in the lower levels.
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