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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. Quincy

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    The issue with a slowing/stalling hurricane is going to be upwelling, plus the water depth gets shallower closer to the coast. Major hurricanes have been known to have sometimes wild fluctuations in intensity (ERC, as one example), but it's hard to see this thing strengthening much, if at all, beyond Wednesday.
  2. Quincy

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    It's really hard to put this into context since there hasn't been a storm that has evolved anywhere near what's expected with Florence. You can look at Emily in 1993, as that was a category 3 hurricane that slowly curved out to sea, but came close to an Outer Banks landfall. Flooding would be even worse this time around and over a more populated area, while rainfall amounts would be substantially greater. You can't really make the comparisons to Hugo and Isabel, since those storms tracked steadily northwest after making landfall. Storms like Floyd and Irene were relatively fast movers as well, so it's safe to say that the area hasn't really experienced anything like what's about to come, even in the "best case scenario" of a weakening storm staying just offshore. Even without a direct landfall, most of the Outer Banks are going to be heavily inundated, if not completely underwater due to a prolonged easterly fetch and increasing size of the storm. A stall and/or a drift to the W/SW would cause major to catastrophic impacts to larger population centers, like Wilmington and Jacksonville, and quite possibly Myrtle Beach as well.
  3. Objectively, this was one of the most volatile environments of 2018, it's just interesting how none of the CAMs picked up on convection in that area. Regardless, with the amount of forcing coming in from the west, a rapidly increasing low-level jet and an extreme CAPE/high shear environment, any cell that could intensify and remain isolated was going to have potential to produce significant severe.
  4. Low-level shear may be on the lower end of the spectrum, but with 5000 J/kg MLCAPE, 50-60kts of deep layer shear and >100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH, the downgrade seems a bit odd. It doesn't help that convection allowing models have been inconsistent for the eastern portion of the threat zone, but the potential for intense supercells seems unusually high (given local climatology) for eastern Montana into western North Dakota. I'd think very large to possibly giant hail may be the biggest threat, but even with modest low-level shear, the thermodynamic profile alone coupled with more than adequate deep layer shear suggests an "enhanced" tornado threat.
  5. Looks like a do over for the last North Dakota moderate risk, plus this is a bit farther south. While this has early day convection like that day, today's morning convection is exiting the area along a warm front and should have little to no negative affect on the environment, based on timing and observational tends. Cautiously optimistic that there could be a few tornadoes today and possibly a strong one given the degree of instability coupled with substantial deep layer shear. Storms interacting with the outflow reinforced warm frontal boundary in western to central ND should pose the greatest supercell tornado risk. The threat for a potentially significant MCS increases tonight in the same general area.
  6. Thursday looks interesting in the northern Plains, but can someone else spare me the agony and discuss all the caveats/red flags?
  7. In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall.
  8. Outflow is surging south across the Texas panhandle and should reach I-40 in the Amarillo vicinity shortly. Would have to guess that most areas east of US-83 are game over for anything significant. It's unclear if the panhandle outflow will be detrimental, period, or if the atmosphere can recover and use the boundary as a focal point late this afternoon.
  9. You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected.
  10. The low-level jet signal is pretty intense given the latitude this late in the season. Yes, there's some convective feedback, but LLJ is progged to reach 50 knots by 03z (near the solstice, that's only an hour after sunset around here) all the way down into Oklahoma with 50-60+ kts in Kansas. Have to imagine a big wind producing convective system evolves late, but earlier day is more of a question mark. It may be a convective mess with the degree of instability with storms just firing all over the place. Who knows. I can't say I've chased long enough to see a similar setup south of I-70 in late June. It will be interesting, but this year especially has taught me to not get too excited about a forecast two or more days out. The fact alone that we're seeing noteworthy upper level flow this far south for 2-3 days is intriguing. Beyond this weekend, such flow (probably even stronger) looks to return for much of next week from the northern Plains to Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. The severe season is not entirely over... yet...
  11. The season is cooked for anywhere near/south of I-70. Mega death ridge reigns for the next 7-10 days, but the pattern could favor some AOA severe activity from Idaho/Montana/Wyoming into the Dakotas. The week two period favors more Great Lakes troughing, so that would tend to suggest an MCS/derecho pattern from the Upper Midwest into the Lakes vicinity.
  12. There's pretty solid reliability in the end of May. Even in a bad year, odds favor that more than half (sometimes all) of the days should feature at least something worth chasing. This year has been abysmal for tornadoes, but there was the Wyoming event yesterday and several other days have featured supercells and "interesting" storm structure. The window during which one chooses to go on a chasecation does seem a bit risky. If you go before the final week of May, odds increase that there will be several down days and possibly a busted period. Go before May 15th and you're doomed, unless you get really lucky. Wait until June and while the ceiling may be higher for at least one or two higher-end days, there's also increased odds that there will be down time. I guess if tornadoes are all that you're after, it's a bit risky. At least it has been this year and last year as well. Unless we're really moving into a new pattern (I doubt it), late May is king and produces well in the vast majority of years.
  13. Today's northeastern Colorado is a fairly typical 10% day in late May. (Could be big or could be slop) Shear is there and so is moisture, but lingering clouds and concerns about storm mode/mergers suggest this could just as easily flop as perform. With that said, climatologically favored upslope trajectories with ample moisture suggest that there probably will be at least a few tornadoes. Will they be seen or last longer than a couple of minutes? We'll see.
  14. I didn't chase either and I'm more or less local. Of course now there's a big hail-producing elevated thunderstorm in northern MO, at midnight, outside of the MRGL risk area.
  15. Agreed about UH tracks @nrgjeff, plus the HRRR hasn't been perfect lately. It's struggled a bit and part of that may be some initializing gaffes. Plus, we've been in some nuanced patterns, so it only takes a slight deviation in initial conditions to throw off model evolution. (even yesterday afternoon, the HRRR couldn't convect anything over the Oklahoma panhandle until a couple of hours prior, while the NAM/HREF caught on to the idea earlier. As SPC mentioned, boundary layer moisture was underestimated by some of the CAMs.) Going back to the HRRR "challenges," they're nothing major, as I still think the HRRR is solid overall with the big picture. One has to dig deeper into meteorology and observed conditions in the moment for finer-scale details. I like the HRRR in the morning to get an idea of possible scenarios, but it's mostly obs/radar/satellite from midday out. Today is still not clear-cut, but I guess it depends what one is looking to chase. If it's a relative higher probability of a tornado and climo-support, then go for the northeastern Colorado vicinity. If more robust, isolated storms are your thing, go farther south into southwestern Kansas/panhandle region. It may be a bit conditional there and the tornado threat is minimal (although I would argue that there may be a narrow window between 00-02z, assuming storms remain isolated), but I would think structure prospects and the potential for longer-lived discrete convection are evident there. With backing near-surface winds, dew-points in the lower 60s and substantially increasing low-level shear toward sunset, don't rule out some panhandle magic (or southwestern Kansas). I haven't given Friday too much more analysis since yesterday afternoon. I'm waiting to see how tonight evolves, as outflow may be a key player tomorrow. Nonetheless, my initial thought is that Kansas is the place to be, but that is still up for debate. For tornadoes, yes, let's drive dews well into the 60s. If it's structure you're after, the High Plains can work with mid/upper 50s, like what we should have to play with today.