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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. Sandy's wind field exploded even larger along the East Coast.
  2. Max wind gusts in mph around the time of landfall:
  3. Yeah, the tornado threat is really going to ramp up tonight. Low to mid level wind profiles will become increasing favorable tonight and a nocturnal tornado threat will be a major concern. An outbreak of relatively short-lived tornadoes seems like a realistic possibility tomorrow over central/South Florida given the degree of low level shear and favorable positioning on the right side of the storm's track. 12z 3km NAM:
  4. Via WeatherBELL:
  5. Yeah, none of the global models have handled it well. Not even the mesoscale models either, really. Not totally uncommon for such a deep cyclone, but model trends (strengthen/weaken) can still have some value.
  6. It's actually a bit west compared to 12z at 18hr. Track is odd though as it jogs due west from 12-18hr.
  7. Not that huge a jump Euro had 950s, so, lol.
  8. Cuba radar shows the eyewall barely skimming the shoreline and only directly passing over the keys. The core remains largely intact.
  9. HRRRX for what's it worth. The model consensus has more or less converged.
  10. Nah. Looks on track. High res Euro is actually just offshore at 12z Saturday as well.
  11. GFS verbatim drops 12.4mb from 36-42 hours as it approaches for peninsula landfall.
  12. Plus category 3 sustained winds, if not stronger.
  13. The 3km NAM track and wind depictions don't seem all that bad. A fairly widespread area progged to experience winds over 100 mph, including Miami. Courtesy WeatherBELL.
  14. Latest SREF has quite a spread for potential hurricane/low center positions for early Sunday morning:
  15. For the record, the 12z Euro progged a 12 hour MSLP rise of 16mb between 00z Sat and 12z Sat. More or less, that model's forecast track has been verifying. Unless Irma cuts deep into Cuba, the models haven't been far off at all.