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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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  • Location:
    Moore, OK

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  1. Friday looks potentially potent. Tomorrow looks like a sloppy mess with nearly front-parallel shear, cold front undercutting storms and relatively weak low level wind fields. I may be dragged out to chase since it’s local, but OKC should stay out of the main threat, as the target area trends farther south.
  2. It might be latching onto the residual outflow boundary… still looks like a grungy HP supercell with mainly a hail threat in the short term.
  3. True. Then there are times when all of the ingredients are off the charts and nothing happens. Severe weather is so complex.
  4. Wonder if this may affect the tornado potential a bit around the DFW area:
  5. Early convection quickly weakened and seems to be elevated. It is reinforcing the baroclinic zone. The cap should hold on until at least early to mid afternoon. Could see an intense supercell or two over southern Arkansas later. I wonder if today will end up having more discrete storms than tomorrow. It’s certainly possible.
  6. Have to wonder if this early convection lays down an outflow boundary for renewed storm development this afternoon in northeast Texas. At the very least, it will reinforce the frontal boundary and probably keep afternoon storms a bit further SE than some earlier progs were showing. Tomorrow, the models looks increasingly like an I-35 mega QLCS as the main show, although isolated warm sector activity cannot be completely ruled out.
  7. The potentially alarming thing about Thursday in Arkansas is the placement of a warm front/boundary along the Arkansas Valley. This is a locally specific setup that results in geographically enhanced channeling of backed low level flow near I-40 from Fort Smith to Little Rock. Such setups have produced some significant, long track tornadoes. Think 75-100 knot, SW 500mb flow backing to SE near-surface winds, along with a southerly LLJ increasing to over 50 knots with sufficient instability. Yikes.
  8. Another potent, compact shortwave, this time with better quality moisture (than yesterday). Forecast soundings from GFS and the Euro pretty alarming across parts of central/east Texas. The signal has been fairly consistent. This will likely trigger another moderate risk from SPC, unless something drastic changes.
  9. Wild 03z special sounding from OUN. Despite huge CIN, a tornado evolved just moments later.
  10. Have had some time to take a deeper look at the setup. Seems like damaging winds will be the main threat and despite substantial surface-based convective inhibition, QLCS spin ups seem inevitable. 100 knot 0-6km shear? 75 knot LLJ? 500mb jet streak of 125 knots? Pretty wacky wind fields, bordering on historic. I think it leads to complex storm modes with embedded, hybrid supercells possible. Not favorable for storm chasing, but favorable to produce damage. Whether it’s 70 mph straight line winds or brief tornadoes, it almost doesn’t make a difference with it happening at night. Hopefully the threat wanes before reaching the more populated areas along I-44 and I-35 in Oklahoma.
  11. I’m in Oklahoma and I’m not even sure I’m going out. There may be a small window near the Caprock around sunset, but storm motions will be fast. Of course there’s always the potential for fluky, brief tornado farther north, but models show very little MLCAPE north of I-40. Where they do some marginal instability (generally less than 500 J/kg), it seems like a capping is an issue. Wind fields may be near climatological records, so it won’t take much. Even if we’re just talking QLCS circulations.
  12. NAM 12km and high res look very marginal with poor moisture return. Euro and GFS are more aggressive with dew points approaching 60 in western Oklahoma at 00z Monday. I’m not sold yet, especially with antecedent cold, dry air in place. Average T/Td in the ENH area this morning are 18/5.
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