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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall.
  2. Outflow is surging south across the Texas panhandle and should reach I-40 in the Amarillo vicinity shortly. Would have to guess that most areas east of US-83 are game over for anything significant. It's unclear if the panhandle outflow will be detrimental, period, or if the atmosphere can recover and use the boundary as a focal point late this afternoon.
  3. You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected.
  4. The low-level jet signal is pretty intense given the latitude this late in the season. Yes, there's some convective feedback, but LLJ is progged to reach 50 knots by 03z (near the solstice, that's only an hour after sunset around here) all the way down into Oklahoma with 50-60+ kts in Kansas. Have to imagine a big wind producing convective system evolves late, but earlier day is more of a question mark. It may be a convective mess with the degree of instability with storms just firing all over the place. Who knows. I can't say I've chased long enough to see a similar setup south of I-70 in late June. It will be interesting, but this year especially has taught me to not get too excited about a forecast two or more days out. The fact alone that we're seeing noteworthy upper level flow this far south for 2-3 days is intriguing. Beyond this weekend, such flow (probably even stronger) looks to return for much of next week from the northern Plains to Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. The severe season is not entirely over... yet...
  5. The season is cooked for anywhere near/south of I-70. Mega death ridge reigns for the next 7-10 days, but the pattern could favor some AOA severe activity from Idaho/Montana/Wyoming into the Dakotas. The week two period favors more Great Lakes troughing, so that would tend to suggest an MCS/derecho pattern from the Upper Midwest into the Lakes vicinity.
  6. There's pretty solid reliability in the end of May. Even in a bad year, odds favor that more than half (sometimes all) of the days should feature at least something worth chasing. This year has been abysmal for tornadoes, but there was the Wyoming event yesterday and several other days have featured supercells and "interesting" storm structure. The window during which one chooses to go on a chasecation does seem a bit risky. If you go before the final week of May, odds increase that there will be several down days and possibly a busted period. Go before May 15th and you're doomed, unless you get really lucky. Wait until June and while the ceiling may be higher for at least one or two higher-end days, there's also increased odds that there will be down time. I guess if tornadoes are all that you're after, it's a bit risky. At least it has been this year and last year as well. Unless we're really moving into a new pattern (I doubt it), late May is king and produces well in the vast majority of years.
  7. Today's northeastern Colorado is a fairly typical 10% day in late May. (Could be big or could be slop) Shear is there and so is moisture, but lingering clouds and concerns about storm mode/mergers suggest this could just as easily flop as perform. With that said, climatologically favored upslope trajectories with ample moisture suggest that there probably will be at least a few tornadoes. Will they be seen or last longer than a couple of minutes? We'll see.
  8. I didn't chase either and I'm more or less local. Of course now there's a big hail-producing elevated thunderstorm in northern MO, at midnight, outside of the MRGL risk area.
  9. Agreed about UH tracks @nrgjeff, plus the HRRR hasn't been perfect lately. It's struggled a bit and part of that may be some initializing gaffes. Plus, we've been in some nuanced patterns, so it only takes a slight deviation in initial conditions to throw off model evolution. (even yesterday afternoon, the HRRR couldn't convect anything over the Oklahoma panhandle until a couple of hours prior, while the NAM/HREF caught on to the idea earlier. As SPC mentioned, boundary layer moisture was underestimated by some of the CAMs.) Going back to the HRRR "challenges," they're nothing major, as I still think the HRRR is solid overall with the big picture. One has to dig deeper into meteorology and observed conditions in the moment for finer-scale details. I like the HRRR in the morning to get an idea of possible scenarios, but it's mostly obs/radar/satellite from midday out. Today is still not clear-cut, but I guess it depends what one is looking to chase. If it's a relative higher probability of a tornado and climo-support, then go for the northeastern Colorado vicinity. If more robust, isolated storms are your thing, go farther south into southwestern Kansas/panhandle region. It may be a bit conditional there and the tornado threat is minimal (although I would argue that there may be a narrow window between 00-02z, assuming storms remain isolated), but I would think structure prospects and the potential for longer-lived discrete convection are evident there. With backing near-surface winds, dew-points in the lower 60s and substantially increasing low-level shear toward sunset, don't rule out some panhandle magic (or southwestern Kansas). I haven't given Friday too much more analysis since yesterday afternoon. I'm waiting to see how tonight evolves, as outflow may be a key player tomorrow. Nonetheless, my initial thought is that Kansas is the place to be, but that is still up for debate. For tornadoes, yes, let's drive dews well into the 60s. If it's structure you're after, the High Plains can work with mid/upper 50s, like what we should have to play with today.
  10. Also for next week, the Euro is really ugly. The 500mb maps suggest virtually ZERO 500mb flow of 30+ knots in the Plains. A major failure of the calendar if it verifies.
  11. Friday looks to have the best potential (over favorable terrain) in the coming days, particularly over Kansas. Tomorrow looks like a mess up north (northern Plains), while the southern Plains may struggle a bit with storm longevity. Not to mention that outside of the Dakotas, deep layer shear appears marginal (only around 30kts in the 0-6km layer). You'll probably get some locally enhancement in climo-favored northeastern Colorado, but that's about it. (A conditional threat may exist along a warm front in the eastern Dakotas, but that seems fairly conditional) Saturday looks to be just a little too late/east. A closer look at a consensus of guidance (which I will lean more toward the Euro) favors increasingly unidirectional mid/upper level flow and capping issues. An area that may have the best potential will probably fall near the lower Missouri Valley (northern Missouri and surrounding areas). I'm not sure that the eastern Kansas dryline setup will work. Sure, if the system slows a bit and we see a stronger signal for backing of low-level flow, then maybe, but we've seen similar setups fumble this year in such a scenario. With respect to the CFS, that might be a hiccup, but when it shows such low "values" for SCP during peak season, that's a major red flag. Taken verbatim, the latest CFS would be pretty dull next week, although you'd probably still have at least a day or two thread the needle somewhere, either along remnant outflow or terrain-aided.
  12. Quincy

    May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

    I'm sure this has already been discussed, but can't understate the relevance of EML plumes with respect to significant severe weather in the Northeast. Not only did the 18z ALB sounding sample 7.7 C/km mid-level lapse rates (high-end, historically), but the expansive nature of >7 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates ahead of the entire line of storms yesterday was certainly impressive.
  13. I almost went to Colorado today (nine hour drive), but am glad I didn't. Kansas was in the back of my mind, but I wanted to save a few bucks. It's really not a surprise that a storm went up in that area. We've had a few days over the past week that were capped just a bit too much for something over Kansas, but it was close. Today was a fine line between modest shear to the NW and plentiful instability to the SE. Outflow boundaries created a non-traditional outflow triple point, but it was enough to get it done. CAMs showed some potential for discrete/semi-discrete storm modes in south-central Kansas, but you would have really had to pick the right area. At 4:45 CDT, I had a narrow opportunity to go toward the developing cell south of Wichita (from Oklahoma City). It's a good thing I didn't go, because GPS would have put me in the right area about a half hour too late. It was a relatively short-lived tornado event. Most of the photos even leading up to the tornado were very grungy, so one would have to have been very patient, or just lucky. As we get deeper into May, it doesn't take much to get it done. For those who regularly chasecation or take trips to the Plains, this was an example of most favoring Colorado>Kansas, only to bust. Sure, the models had a nice UH track across eastern Colorado (and they verified), but the quality of boundary layer moisture and low-end instability were red flags that hail was a much greater threat than tornadoes. Again, Kansas wasn't clear either and that's what makes storm chasing so difficult. As well as Kansas performed today, you could envision a similar setup on Wednesday or Thursday, except due to other reasons, Colorado ends up producing a tornado. Then you have situations like 2016, where if you stayed in western Kansas for each day in late May, you would have seen nearly endless tornadoes, even though targets greatly varied from Texas to Nebraska.
  14. Assuming we're near 320 right now and we finish May with only 323 (3 more tornadoes!), following 1991-2010 climo for the rest of the year would put us right at 1000. However, it doesn't quite work that well, as I mentioned earlier in the year, more than 50% of years and months finish with below "average" tornado counts. It's the big events/outbreaks/seasons that skew the average a bit higher. At some point, you do have to consider persistence and I do think if there was a year to finish with less than 1000, it was this year. We managed to pull off the feat in 2016, but peak season was fairly active that year. We also did it in 2013, but the second half of May was fairly active. I guess that speaks volumes, as if we stay slow, it's going to be that much harder to dig out of the hole. If things don't turn around in the next few weeks, this might be an even worse version of 2013. Imagine if 2013 was slow in May and didn't have November 17th, that's about as bad as it can possibly get...
  15. Last week, May 6-12, was a staggering 91% below climatology (based on preliminary reports) in terms of tornadoes with only six. The only such period that saw fewer since 1950 was four in 1987.