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Quincy

Meteorologist
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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    http://www.quincyvagell.com

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOKC
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. While there are some broad upper level similarities, the approaching shortwave was more robust. There was also an extensive warm front draped from OK to GA, where widespread severe/tornado reports where seen. The atmosphere over OK was largely uncapped by midday. Despite a stronger cap progged for this time around, relatively high confidence in extreme buoyancy, i.e. CAPEs over 4000 J/kg, would still highlight a threat for something significant going up. In fact, delayed initiation would further allow the atmosphere to destabilize to high-end values given the time of year and location. The key difference here is that the setup looks more strongly capped and significant severe will be more conditional, pending mesoscale details.
  2. Thursday looks like a severe threat in the western Kansas vicinity, even though boundary layer moisture may be modest, i.e. mid-50s Tds, and relatively weak 0-2km winds. Can't overlook a lower 990s mb surface low in the central high plains in late May. Analogs also show a fairly high incidence of Kansas severe reports with similar setups. Beyond that, Friday and Saturday look like big CAPE days with solid potential, but too many details to work out to get focused on specific placement and severity. When you see high CAPE/modest shear setups as far south as as the southern Plains/Ozarks in late May, watch out. We know we've had some intense/violent tornadoes in such scenarios.
  3. There is somewhat of a gap in western Oklahoma in general when it comes to long track and/or intense tornadoes, that dates back to the beginning of reliable records. Maybe population density plays a small role, but adjacent areas of the Texas panhandle, Kansas and Oklahoma have had more such events.
  4. Stick a fork in any kind of widespread tornado threat today thanks to an ongoing MCS across Texas. Sure, the complex may pose a renewed damaging wind, hail and brief QLCS tornado threat late this afternoon in the DFW vicinity (and areas northeast into eastern Oklahoma), if it can reintensify. There may also be some threat for warm sector cellular activity immediately ahead of the MCS, but any such convection should tend to be undercut by the system, limiting residence time Modest updrafts would appear possible in three regimes by late afternoon: 1. Along/near outflow related boundaries left in northwest Texas from the departing MCS. There may be a conditional threat for a rogue supercell, but disrupted environmental conditions should limit the scope of such a threat. (Meaning that you could see one "decent" cell, but widespread severe seems unlikely.) 2. The southern flank of the MCS could, eventually, foster a few stronger semi-discrete updrafts in central Texas. 3. North-central Oklahoma to south-central/southeast Kansas may also see renewed storm development, but the MCS will likely cutoff more favorable airmass recovery. The overlap of supportive CAPE/shear should be confined to a relatively small area, somewhat fragmenting the warm sector, so a robust severe threat seems conditional at best.
  5. 21z SREF calibrated severe probabilities are about the same as they were today. The most apparent red flag is the potential for mid/late morning convective contamination, however.
  6. High risk downgraded to enhanced risk.
  7. It's interesting what happens when a strongly unstable environment is fragmented like Swiss cheese, while shear profiles continue to improve. It's like an increasingly small and randomized target on a dartboard.
  8. Hodographs continue to enlarge, see VNX below. Too bad surface temperatures have cooled into the ~upper 60s.
  9. I wish CIPS still updated their PPF realtime page. Any event with a close cluster of reports could easily yield MDT/HIGH risk "verification". It seemed overdone to some. Especially storms impacting at least relatively populated areas. Or just spots with a lot of spotter reports.
  10. The airmass is overturned and surface-based convective inhibition is increasing.
  11. Why are we giving a troll so much attention that they want in the first place? Let's move on.
  12. Another consideration, storms were too close together, for the most part, as by 21z, there was environmental overturning, cell interactions, increasing CINH and warm front storms both merging AND interacting with cool air to the north of the front. this, plus a lack of early afternoon low-level shear, are probably the two biggest red flags I can see. The initial storms were nice and discrete, but likely just a bit too early to capitalize on a priming environment. Recall forecast discussions mentioning initially elevated activity and how some posters commented on seemingly high cloud bases at first?
  13. Bottom line regarding the HRRR: It outperformed the NCAR/SSEO suite that showed classic high-end outbreak type intense UH swaths up and down KS/OK. It outperformed the NSSL-ARW that showed only one lone cell over SW KS and most of the more intense storms over southern OK. It had fair agreement from the 12z 3km NAM that had a decent grasp on the general evolution by that 12z run Did it nail today? That depends on your perspective. Considering a very complex setup with multiple areas of discrete cells and storm clusters with cell mergers and interactions, it gave us the generally right idea all along (starting with the 12z WED HRRRX), from my analysis: Discrete/semi-discrete storms transitioning relatively quickly to clusters and bows by 22z with a few supercell structures remaining into early evening. Not many intense UH tracks and only slight time error (when considering model bias, I don't even consider it a big error) with initial storm development. If one had hugged any other model/ensemble and disregarded the HRRR, the forecast would have simply been less accurate than the general HRRR depiction. We're talking about model guidance. It guides us to a possible outcome or set of outcomes. The HRRR led us in generally the right direction, unless you want to argue about 1 hour time differences or slight model bias with respect to somewhat overdone convective elements (OKC "bow). You can't simply say 60kts deep layer shear + 3500 J/kg CAPE = numerous long-track, significant tornadoes I personally expected a 10% hatched outlook at 06z with probable increases to 15% as mesoscale details became more clear. I have no problem with erring on the side of caution, but I cannot see how one can argue that the HRRR didn't guide us in generally the right direction with the scope of this event.
  14. A bow just passed through the east side of OKC in the 22-23z time frame. No model is ever going to be 100% perfect, but considering all the various model outputs and potential scenarios, the HRRR was relatively consistent and generally had the right idea with relatively long lead time. Maybe it initiated an hour or two too early, but that's a known model bias in most events.
  15. Today will go down as a great example of an impressing parameter space (high-end, climatologically) not equaling a slam dunk, long-track tornado outbreak. Storm mergers, early initiation, disrupted inflow, cool air north of the warm front, etc. HRRR really nailed it, even from the beginning with early 24+ hour HRRRX progs. Sure, several tornadoes and a few long-lived supercells, but not really a high risk-caliber event. Tomorrow has potential as well, but one peek at the HRRRX does not excite me. (Morning MCS across OK/TX with messy storm modes over KS again) Not only that, but the Plains pattern grinds to a screeching halt for at least a few days, beginning Saturday.