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About Quincy

  • Birthday 02/03/1987

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    Oklahoma City, OK

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  1. That ABR sounding looks insane with the severe weather parameters, but what stands out to me is relatively weak/sub-marginal winds in the mid to upper levels. Particularly 700-500mb, where winds are <30 knots. The 00z BIS sounding is arguably more impressive, but it's in close proximity to the cold front. It showed a large capping inversion, but even stronger deep layer year. Another thing to note is that >30 knot deep layer shear is not uncommon at all in the Northern Plains in late June. In fact, sounding climatology suggests that mean 0-6km shear for 00z 6/30 at ABR is 35 knots and 38 knots at BIS. One of my favorite times of year and places to storm chase would be the Dakotas in early to mid-summer. The ABR low-level lapse rates are not bad, but near-term point forecast soundings for the enhanced risk zone in central/eastern North Dakota show relatively weak 0-3km lapse rates of near or <6 C/km. It looks like there was no sustained convection in the area until just the past hour when a storm initiated near Jamestown, ND. Even that storm is struggling at this point. One of the issues with the Northern Plains this time of the year is that cap busts are fairly common. All you need is extreme instability to juxtapose with marginal/modest shear to see severe weather parameters go off the charts.
  2. The 5% tornado threat area did not produce anything tornadic, but I was able to witness this supercell in north-central Kansas, in Courtland, last night:
  3. There may be some elevated severe potential toward the middle/end of next week as a more robust jet is progged to eject into the central/northern Plains, but until then the pattern appears relatively quiet for mid-June standards. Given the orientation of a trough across the eastern half of the country, it is noteworthy that the southern Plains, south of I-40, will see some severe threats today and tomorrow. Areas near the Red River are well past their peak season and usually don’t have much severe activity this late in the year.
  4. The overall pattern looks unseasonably quiet across the Plains through at least the next 5-7 days. This is reflected well by the CFS severe weather guidance dashboard, which has blue boxes in the coming days, something that is very unusual for early to mid-June. The Northern Plains area into the Upper Midwest may see some severe thunderstorm activity this weekend, as a trough ejects eastward. What happens with that trough next week is the glaring issue. Medium-range guidance and ensembles are fairly consistent with broad troughing across the Missouri Valley/Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity through much of next week. In uncharacteristic form for mid-June, instability appears limited through at least the middle of next week and possibly the end of the week as well. Northwest flow events tend to become more common into July and sometimes even mid to late June, but with modest instability, at best, that does not bode well for severe thunderstorm prospects via NW flow next week. As we approach next weekend, there have been signs that the pattern shuffles and there could be a return to at least near average severe thunderstorm activity for the third week of June. European ensemble data and the weeklies, to a lesser degree, show a more zonal flow-type pattern across the northern tier of states by next weekend or early in week 3. (roughly the June 15-18 window) The potential may exist for one or perhaps a few shortwaves to impinge on the northern High Plains/Northern Plains vicinity with an uptick in severe potential there. This is also highlighted by the CFS dashboard, although it does not take much in the way of wind shear to throw blanket regions of elevated SCP values in June when there is seasonably-typical instability in place. (The CFS dashboard is based on supercell composite parameter / SCP values, either over a broad area or elevated in any area) On the other hand, the latest Euro weekly data seems to imply that any pattern shift is short-lived and that more Upper Midwest/Great Lakes troughing could set up by the middle or end of June week 3. As we go deeper into June, the Great Lakes/Midwest vicinity could experience northwest flow severe threats, but that type of pattern needs instability in place. The trends suggest that moisture is going to be scoured south and east (quite a feat for June), even when there is appreciable upper level flow in the northern states. Who knows, maybe that could result in an unusual late season threat across the Mid-South, but that's speculation on an already conditional scenario. Any way you slice it, the prospects for severe thunderstorm activity in the Plains in the near future are very slim. Sure, you can get some High Plains magic here or there, but that's to be expected, even in the quietest months of June. I'd be cautiously optimistic about prospects for June week 3. On the bright side, that period (June 16-22) has featured some significant events over the past decade. Almost each year seems to have at least one noteworthy event in that window, but we'll see.
  5. It’s still early in the day and most CAMs don’t show warm sector development until this afternoon. The watch only goes until 1 p.m. and it will probably be replaced by a new downstream tornado watch.
  6. The low level jet is much more favorable for tornadoes. Moderate risk-caliber? We'll see. The combination of instability and shear along the High Plains is pretty impressive. Early storm initiation may be the limiting factor again, but any storms that can remain at least semi-discrete will pose a legitimate tornado threat, particularly after 21-22z.
  7. Today has two areas of interest, in my opinion. Iowa/northern Illinois: Assuming the early day MCS does not overly disrupt the environment, you should see modest to moderate instability develop by mid-afternoon. Wind profiles look very favorable for supercells. Any storms that can interact favorably with the warm front/convectively reinforced boundary, will have the highest (relatively) tornado potential. West Texas toward the caprock/southeastern Texas panhandle: Wind profiles are not great right now, but there's a weak boundary in place along a SW-NE axis between Amarillo and Lubbock. This should be the focus for storm initiation later today. Although the orientation is roughly parallel to the deep shear vectors, most guidance increases the low-level jet this evening, supporting fairly rapid enlargement of hodographs right around or shortly after 00z. It might be too little too late as storm modes could be messy by then, but I'd suspect there will be at least a couple of tornadoes in this area. In between these two areas, storms are probable over a wide swath from Kansas/Oklahoma to Missouri. The main threat will probably be flash flooding in this region.
  8. It may be a bit elevated, but still that's pretty impressive that it's been more or less maintaining intensity for so long.
  9. I haven't looked super closely at later today, but just glancing at data in more depth now - there will probably be several more tornadoes and a swath of heavy rain across KS/OK again. Thankfully it's a bit farther west than the areas hit hardest on Wednesday/Wednesday night, but still... Wind profiles are impressive for so far south this late in the season, but SW/SSW upper level flow suggests there may be some veer-back signatures aloft. Convective mode should be mixed and most guidance initiates convection relatively early, later this morning. As convective advects north and east, you'll probably see renewed development by early to mid-afternoon across the panhandles and western Oklahoma.
  10. I eluded to this yesterday about the 5/9/03 analog, which was a pretty close match. It's a fine line and if mid-level temperatures were just a touch warmer today, but might not see anything on radar at all south of I-40. Obviously, that's not the case.
  11. The 20z OUN sounding, when compared to other area soundings/observations, suggests the cap has mostly eroded across the OKC metro area. Low-level wind shear is not overly favorable in the area yet, but it should gradually improve with time.
  12. The low-level shear is not very favorable in the SW portion of the watch. Seems odd, but maybe it was a CYA decision for that cell going up. Regardless, the environment becomes increasingly favorable for significant severe with northeastward extent, especially from OKC metro and points northeast.
  13. A bit surprised with "several strong tornadoes likely," but there are some key ingredients that are in better alignment than Monday. The best convergence/forcing appears to be north of OKC along the moisture gradient and that's where models just about unanimously agree on convective development later. I'm not quite sure why this watch is displaced to the south, but maybe they are considering a different watch for up north.
  14. With that said, convective initiation is underway just northwest of Wichita Falls, of all places. Mesoanalysis shows an area of locally steeper low-level lapse rates there. We'll have to see the convection evolves and if it can sustain itself.
  15. Such a delicate setup. The 18z OUN surprised me a bit with so much warming at 700mb. An increase from 5.2C at 12z to 9.0C at 18z. Notice warm layers between 800-650mb. The model solutions with widespread/robust convection near and south of OKC metro seem overdone. This combined with the latest HRRR run implies any storm coverage will be very isolated, particularly near and southeast of a Oklahoma City to Joplin line, or roughly I-44. Any storm that does fire will likely become severe, rapidly, with a high probability of producing very large hail and tornadoes.