thunderbolt

At least according to this graph this appears to be a basin wide El Niño by November Like everybody else says it’s just wait and see will definitely have a better answer by June or July in my opinion to see where this is possibly going

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that NOAA uses for classifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the eastern tropical Pacific. It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW). Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5o anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cool (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods.

El Niño - 26 La Niña - 25 Weak - 11 Moderate - 7 Strong - 5 Very Strong - 3 Weak - 11 Moderate - 6 Strong - 7 1952-53 1951-52 1957-58 1982-83 1954-55 1955-56 1973-74 1953-54 1963-64 1965-66 1997-98 1964-65 1970-71 1975-76 1958-59 1968-69 1972-73 2015-16 1971-72 1995-96 1988-89 1969-70 1986-87 1987-88 1974-75 2011-12 1998-99 1976-77 1994-95 1991-92 1983-84 2020-21 1999-00 1977-78 2002-03 1984-85 2021-22 2007-08 1979-80 2009-10 2000-01 2010-11 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2008-09 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2017-18 2022-23

I know it’s way out there I’m just showing example of a possible basin Wide But once again I don’t trust way too early

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I’m right around the corner from you in Levittown

14/15? The year 2013/14 was neutral

Really Give this guy a metal

Come on brother entertainment purposes only one can only dream it’s GFS 6Z plus it’s our 360

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Just like all the models at this time I think we proceed cautiously at least until May But you got To admit it would be nice for something different

CFS predicting a 2C El Nino by august with forcing concentrated over central pacific and sinking concentrated over Africa and the Indian ocean. this means the entire pacific ocean will be very active . On the other hand the Atlantic maybe in for near record low ACE if this 10:07 AM · Feb 21, 2023

Compared to this year