salbers

Meteorologist
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  1. Weird track for current blowup of storms SE of Taiwan. The disturbance came in from the NE, seemingly replacing a cloud cluster in this same area. This isn't yet on the list of warned systems. Could have been a Fujiwara effect betwen the two disturbances.
  2. I agree loud sounds are something to contend with in a hurricane. My earlier point is that absolute pressure is what matters, and this changes any time one climbs in elevation, even in weather outside of a hurricane. It seems that the equivalent height change in relation to a hurricane pressure drop is at a rate commonly encountered when one rides an elevator in a tall building, or drives up a mountain. The conversion is about 25 feet per millibar.
  3. Why should the pressure drop be any more painful than riding up an elevator or driving up a mountain?
  4. Looks like two swirls at low levels now on GOES-16 visible satellite. One farther NE of Cat Island near the larger convection and another bare circulation to the SW (maybe the old PTC - just W of Cat Island as mentioned earlier). This circulation has just a little bit of convection with it. The NE of Cat Island circulation seems slightly NE of the NHC position. Maybe later Euro frames will go back out to sea.
  5. As pointed out in Bob Henson's blog it's easier to beat Hazel's records with a weaker hurricane with the 0.7' higher sea level nowadays.
  6. Looks like improved enhancement around the eye here: Movement does seem to the north on the satellite loop.
  7. Convection is now appearing on the north side of the eye as well...
  8. A few overshooting tops on the WNW side of the eye now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
  9. Super Typhoon Manghut has 175mph winds and headed to the northern tip of the Philippines.
  10. Interesting in that paper that the Antarctic component is the part accelerating the quickest with about a 6 year doubling time. This component will thus become more dominant in the future.
  11. KMIS 63 kt gust, wind direction from 130 degrees. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at1
  12. Some central convection redeveloping...
  13. This really seems like a hurricane billiards game in the 00Z GFS. The upper level high in the Atlantic with Jose and Maria being the players. Will be interesting to see how the models continue to evolve.
  14. Compared with 00Z GFS run, the hit is farther north. This corresponds with more of a piece of the trough in the Rockies lifting out over the Great Lakes. It seems if we can get the trough to stay consolidated in the Rockies the downstream ridge would build up and steer it more south. This will be interesting to watch from run to run.
  15. As the 10 day GFS suggests, I wonder if the trough in the Rockies will be so slow moving allowing the ridge in the east to build up more.