salbers

I like to see the satellite animations alternating with the text - fyi.

Spire's SRFS 12z model run has the track moving more to the NE actually passing over New Orleans.

Here is James Van Fleet's discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7239270198455783424/ I'll suggest a central pressure of 970-975mb. Perhaps that's close to a category 2.

James van Fleet video with SRFS model discussion: https://x.com/SpireWxClimate/status/1833165234900451340

Here's the story over the next couple of days with the RAP: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopUpdated.cgi?dsKeys=rap_ncep_jet:&runTime=2024090721&plotName=totp_full_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=52&model=rr&ptitle=RAP and RRFS Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=51&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1&resizePlot=1

ICON also has vigorous development after the merger: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2024090715&fh=loop&r=gom&dpdt=&mc= GFS is initializing the low at 12z south of where the satellite circulation center is for the former 90L.

The RAP shows this merger: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024090715&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=gom&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=rap I'll update the thread title to mention 90L & 91L. Both of these are still distinctly visible on satellite so it will be interesting to see how they can merge. https://col.st/hoN7H

It's a good website though for some reason Microsoft Teams flags it as a security risk. Perhaps Claude can help in tightening this up?

Is there a parent web site to the ATCF page? I'm having some challenges with the direct link. 35kt is enough for a tropical depression though it may have yet to be classified as such.

Discussion of this system in the Spire video with the SRFS: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7237851905635299330/

What we've been following in the NW Gulf since Aug 30 in the "2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season" thread. Looks like an energetic circulation on visible satellite here: https://col.st/i3X9I One coastal / buoy station (LUIT2) recently had sustained NE winds around 22kt.

Thanks GaWx - Fyi I've mentioned the Spire Hi-res model also showing this since last Friday (with a break over the weekend) as well. The model forecasts were discussed at the time in some online video presentations. This model (called SRFS) has been more consistently to the north than the ICON. One place to see a collection of these videos is here: https://insights.spire.com/jvf

La Nina is barely getting started it seems with the SST indices. We might want to give this more time for later in the season.

The system in the NW Gulf continues to spin up in the eyes of the Spire and HRRR Hi-res models over the next 48 hours.

FYI - both Spire's Hi-res model and the HRRR do some spinup of the Gulf low during the next 48 hours, keeping it more to the north. ICON brings it more to the south like yesterday's run.