George001

No, high end moderate to strong. I don’t think it will quite get up to super, but a 1.4-1.8 ONI El Niño is no joke.

Paul Roundy thinks a super nino is coming. He’s not always right but the Nino is indeed building from east to west like he said, it’s already +.4 and not even June yet so there is plenty of time for the nino to drastically increase in strength. What is your current thoughts on the expected peak? I’m thinking a range of around +1.4 to +1.8.

In that case it holds even more weight. We are seeing more signs that indicate it’s worth getting excited about this nino, like the rapidly rising PDO, crashing SOI etc.

That has a warm bias I believe but it did not back down at all. Even if it’s too warm by 1C, that would still be quite a strong nino.

Good ol Joe, his forecasts are about as reliable as the Celtics and Bruins!

I’d go by NOAA instead. 55% chance of at least strong, 80% chance of at least moderate, and only a 5-10% chance of no nino at all. Super nino is unlikely but regardless the nino is expected to grow and become quite powerful. There are increasing signs that the dynamical guidance is on to something, and they are favoring a strong peak. Like you said, the statistical guidance is on crack with a couple of the models saying we are getting a 4th Nina. Too early to say what the implication for winter is but I understand leaning snowless and warm until proven otherwise.

The may IRI update has even more spread than the April one did

Still thinking we get an early peaking strong east based (EP) nino, but not super? I’m skeptical of a strong solution but it is looking more likely than it did a couple weeks ago. The 3 and 3.4 regions warming up is a positive sign for El Niño development.

If the ONI is over 2.0 I’m going to set my expectations for another ratter and start looking to the 2024-2025 winter.

I get the argument for an east pacific (EP) event, but for strength the PDO being strongly negative is a red flag that I don’t think should be ignored. If it were a weakly negative PDO that would be one thing, but this is an extreme PDO event. How many strong ninos historically have developed alongside a -PDO of this magnitude? The -PDO is as negative as it was in 2010-2011, which was a strong Nina. I do think we get a nino, but I’m skeptical of the stronger outcomes. Weak ninos and moderate ninos developing alongside -PDOs are more common.

The latest IRI Enso forecast still has a wide range of outcomes with 2 camps. One camp is clustered around a low end strong peak, the other is forecasting a weak nino peak. The moderate to strong camp is bigger than the weak camp, and a uper nino and no nino at all are extreme outliers. If the models are correct it looks like this El Niño is for real, but it’s not going to be anywhere near historic in strength. Moderate to strong? Sure, there is plenty of model support for that outcome. Super? Nope, there is more model support for a weak nino than a super nino.

I disagree that PDO is independent. While you are correct that it’s not always -PDO = Nina and +PDO = Nino, it does have an impact. It is possible that we get a strong or super nino and a -PDO like 1972-1973, but that is unusual (same with 1995-1996, +PDO and moderate La Niña). They are possible, but it’s best to hedge against unusual and or extreme outcomes until proven otherwise (Ive gotten burned by this quite a bit). If it was even a weakly (-1 or so) negative PDO the argument in favor of a big nino would be stronger, but it is a very strong -PDO and hasnt shown signs of increasing yet. The -PDO is why I’m leaning towards a moderate peak rather than strong or super. Due to the -PDO I’m also leaning towards an eastern pacific (EP) event, and a mild east coast winter for 2023-2024.

It’s definitely a realistic possibility, if it’s going to peak at strong we will start seeing signs soon, such as the PDO increasing rapidly.

Historically (coming off a big multi year Nina event) there is some support for a very strong nino to develop, but the latest obs aren’t all that impressive. Warmth mostly confined to enso 1.2 (which is by far the smallest zone in the enso region), subsurface fairly warm but nothing crazy (+ .9), and the -PDO. If anything, based on the latest obs I would think no El Niño at all is more likely than a super Nino. I’m starting to think it will peak at moderate, not strong.

BOS breaking 90 today? 82 degrees already.