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George001

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    Foxborough MA

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  1. My winter forecast ended up being a fail. There were some warning signs but I don’t know how the polar vortex was able to deepen so much. It was record strength, which screwed us late winter. This winter was decent in my area because of the blizzard, but pretty much everywhere outside SE Mass it was bad. I know the solar was more active than expected, but I would think to get the polar vortex to deepen so much it would take something extreme to do that. Maybe the volcanic activity earlier in the year? I read that the year after a big volcanic eruption there is evidence suggesting increased probability of a positive NAO. I hope the polar vortex shatters into a billion pieces next year.
  2. The low on the Canadian a few days ago went poof, just like that. Very unfortunate.
  3. Yes, we need to see the signal strengthen on the ensembles though. It is a long shot for sure.
  4. Too early to tell. If we do though, if the polar vortex doesn’t end up stronger than normal the winter should be better. The past couple of la ninas have done a good job cooling off the ocean, leading to a weaker pacific jet. La Niña with blocking is very good.
  5. Wouldnt the blocking force secondary redevelopment, leading to a Miller B? That happened during the big December storm a couple years ago that buried Binghamton NY. The low initially cut west and buried Wisconsin, but it redeveloped to the south and turned into a Miller B. Or at least an SWFE, I don’t get how all that warm air can flood north.
  6. How can it cut into the block? I’m not buying that, maybe it won’t be a snowstorm, but the low won’t just ram into the block.
  7. 12z euro extrapolated looked like it would have been an interesting solution for early April. I’m not sure how much if any of the precip would be snow, but it did look like a bowling ball was going to track under us.
  8. I have toned it down a bit. I still jump the gun sometimes but this I am willing to accept feedback. This post is a bit harsh, but completely fair and nothing you said here is really inaccurate so I’ll work on it. I probably shouldn’t have started talking about blizzards off just a good H5 look (I’ll edit the post so it’s toned down) but man it’s a really good look. I don’t entirely remember all the details of our last exchange, but I do remember taking offense to something you said and got defensive as a result. I don’t really want to make enemies here so I’ll forget about that and clean up my posts. Fair enough?
  9. Didn’t you get over a foot of snow in the Jan blizzard? I consider the difference between a bad winter and a true ratter to be no storms with a foot or more of snow. That’s the difference between say 2018-2019, which sucked but had one storm with over a foot of snow in my area, and 2019-2020 which was a true ratter. Also, it’s bowling ball season. We still have time for another blizzard, which could change the overall grade of the winter. I read that 1996-1997 had like 20 inches of snow the ENTIRE WINTER in Boston, until the early spring April fools blizzard brought the seasonal total up from ratter to average.
  10. I think we’re going to get a bowling ball, the only issue is wave spacing on the models right now. I do not think that will be an issue at all, as with the North Atlantic blocking in place timing shouldn’t be too much of an issue. There will be plenty of time for the northern energy to phase in and catch a piece of the southern energy. This time of the year thermals are a concern, but if the low location is good and it’s strong enough it will create its own cold air. A possible scenario is the storm starts as rain, but then as the low deepens it creates its own cold air via dynamic cooling, leading to the rain transitioning to some snow. The North Atlantic blocking in place ups the ante, leading to the storm slowing down. When combined with the bowling ball low closing off quickly, a storm loaded with QPF is very possible. The question is how much will be snow. Right now the surface maps have the low too far south, but the upper air pattern suggests that the low has room to come north.
  11. Upper air pattern on eps for next weeks nor’easter threat
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