danstorm

Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis. However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal? Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint. Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?

Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves. Same well-worn tropes day after day.

This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover. Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?

I actually gave up on it, you're right, there is a period of snow at 51-57 hr that may salvage a decent event. We'll see - certainly doesn't seem to come together fast enough

NAM is a strung out POS

That 500 mb pattern is NOT one that screams boring.

Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one. 13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens. Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range. I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills. We squeezed 10" of pixie dust. My first child arrived that March, my second August 16. No more midnight traipes for me!

Does the block impact the indices or are the indices causing the block? Good lord, that is one crazy West Coast ridge!

Revisionist history. 1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average. Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above. 2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes. In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal. NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below. And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month. You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month. Not happening, not even close. 3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.

That actually was a pretty good month not far from the Coastal Plain. I was a Junior in HS at the time in Ridgefield, Ct. and we had two storms within a 3 day period that produced 4-6" of snow. Both were rain -> snow deals. Further inland got significantly more. That was the famous first Jim Cantore thundersnow shot (which as been since replicated several times) from Worcester, Ma.

It feels wonderful... That exhilarating first rush of winter!

If this were a month later, would have been a surprise 4-8" NAM special.

Pushing 2" in Montclair - this area of NE NJ been a mini jackpot this afternoon

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event! Clearly one model is an outlier...

If you're gonna bust, you might as well bust spectacularly.