danstorm

That 500 mb pattern is NOT one that screams boring.

Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one. 13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens. Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range. I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills. We squeezed 10" of pixie dust. My first child arrived that March, my second August 16. No more midnight traipes for me!

Does the block impact the indices or are the indices causing the block? Good lord, that is one crazy West Coast ridge!

Revisionist history. 1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average. Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above. 2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes. In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal. NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below. And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month. You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month. Not happening, not even close. 3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.

That actually was a pretty good month not far from the Coastal Plain. I was a Junior in HS at the time in Ridgefield, Ct. and we had two storms within a 3 day period that produced 4-6" of snow. Both were rain -> snow deals. Further inland got significantly more. That was the famous first Jim Cantore thundersnow shot (which as been since replicated several times) from Worcester, Ma.

It feels wonderful... That exhilarating first rush of winter!

If this were a month later, would have been a surprise 4-8" NAM special.

Pushing 2" in Montclair - this area of NE NJ been a mini jackpot this afternoon

I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event! Clearly one model is an outlier...

If you're gonna bust, you might as well bust spectacularly.

Awesome, congrats for them. I'm talking west of the Hud and the 5 boros

What a BUST! The bustiest bust in a string of them.

meh - enjoy your 0.53

No, it's not... but the majority are underperforming expectations. This is different from a classic convective event. The progs were for 1-3+ of rain over a widespread area for days. In a repeat of the last several events, most west of the city won't break an inch.

Training of what? Light/mod showers? You'll be lucky to crack 0.5"