danstorm

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by danstorm

  1. Congrats Will, you are the envy of snow weenies everywhere
  2. This is a healing thread for snow-starved weens around the Megalopolis. I'm taking my family up to Lake Placid/Saranac Lake this weekend and can't wait to get out in the depths. I need some snow in my life and I have no problem traveling for it.
  3. what's the current rate? i'd imagine you are pushing 3/hr
  4. Hey man, looooong time!!! I'm good, living the dream in the NYC suburbs with my wife and two beautiful kids - Levi is almost 6 and Sadie is 3. Not working as a met though I still have a side business I founded in the space. Work in analytics in the city for a financial services consultancy. Too many hours but what can you do, Montclair is expensive. How are you? Was up in your neck of the woods a few weeks back meeting with a few of our asset management clients in Boston. What a shit-tastic winter we are having, eh? My town lucked out with 6" (local max for the NYC Metro) from the early Dec storm that hit CNE very hard, then had a large ice storm later that month... since then, it's been a fight between rain, torch, and just regular above normal temps. Of course you guys know that as you've been experiencing the same.
  5. A state legislator fed up with CT seat belt laws?
  6. I shouldn't have wasted my time on the initial response.
  7. Yeah, because scientists are trained to lie. Makes sense. Of course you aren't noticing it - it aligns with your Moscow/200 year point.
  8. Just curious, do you ever follow day to day weather or do you wake up dreaming of the GEFS temperature projections relative to normal? Doesn't it get old?
  9. Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis. However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal? Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint. Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?
  10. Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves. Same well-worn tropes day after day.
  11. This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover. Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?
  12. I actually gave up on it, you're right, there is a period of snow at 51-57 hr that may salvage a decent event. We'll see - certainly doesn't seem to come together fast enough
  13. That 500 mb pattern is NOT one that screams boring.
  14. Indeed, and you don't need a particularly strong one. 13-14 - in a similar pattern to what's being depicted - saw several 4-8/10" storms on ~0.4-0.5" of liquid with temps in the single digits/teens. Mostly, these storms snuck up on us, being shown as suppressed or moisture starved in the medium range. I distinctly remember SN+ with a temperature of 7 during the wee hours in Forest Hills. We squeezed 10" of pixie dust. My first child arrived that March, my second August 16. No more midnight traipes for me!
  15. Does the block impact the indices or are the indices causing the block? Good lord, that is one crazy West Coast ridge!
  16. Revisionist history. 1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average. Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above. 2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes. In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal. NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below. And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month. You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month. Not happening, not even close. 3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.
  17. That actually was a pretty good month not far from the Coastal Plain. I was a Junior in HS at the time in Ridgefield, Ct. and we had two storms within a 3 day period that produced 4-6" of snow. Both were rain -> snow deals. Further inland got significantly more. That was the famous first Jim Cantore thundersnow shot (which as been since replicated several times) from Worcester, Ma.
  18. It feels wonderful... That exhilarating first rush of winter!
  19. If this were a month later, would have been a surprise 4-8" NAM special.
  20. Pushing 2" in Montclair - this area of NE NJ been a mini jackpot this afternoon
  21. I can't tell if sarcastic? That's horrible consensus this close to the event! Clearly one model is an outlier...
  22. Awesome, congrats for them. I'm talking west of the Hud and the 5 boros