danstorm

I realize it's complete puppy piss as a model but may be onto something given the CMC is flatter and the GFS just came in significantly colder, less amped, with a decent secondary forming in time for Pike North.

Nice - I grew up skiing there and it's perfect for my kids' levels (though my 8yo daughter is begging to ski the North Face) Snow was great over MLK weekend (if a big skiied off), hoping the ice overnight isn't too bad and that the weekend storm can stay mostly snow/sleet. Monday looks frigid, maybe it'll thin out the crowds!

GFS colder and seems like a transfer, though not super clean

18Z ICON (I know, I know) again slides this off NJ and keeps CNE mostly snow I care because I'm heading to Mt. Snow this weekend and would prefer not to track the kids while pinged with sleet or getting drenched with rain. Maybe wishful thinking.

I'm heading up for my second VT trip with the family this weekend. Had an absolute blast at Mount Snow over MLK, deep winter up there - driving through Albany with just a few inches on the ground to 18-24" as you climbed up into the Greens was awesome. I'd love to head further up to Stowe, Jay, et all but it's too far with kids so we're staying in Wilmington and hitting Snow again and maybe Okemo if we get ambitious. Kids are fairly new to skiing but i splurged for the Epic Pass and we've done about 10 days on the season...they have no trouble with blues so Snowdance, Ridge Run, Sunbrook are perfect for them. Worried about the Pres Day crowds and potential ice but encouraged by the latest modeling shifts (sans the Euro)... GFS is 36 hours of almost all snow capped by a great CCB Sunday evening... Let's hope!

Congrats Will, you are the envy of snow weenies everywhere

This is a healing thread for snow-starved weens around the Megalopolis. I'm taking my family up to Lake Placid/Saranac Lake this weekend and can't wait to get out in the depths. I need some snow in my life and I have no problem traveling for it.

what's the current rate? i'd imagine you are pushing 3/hr

Hey man, looooong time!!! I'm good, living the dream in the NYC suburbs with my wife and two beautiful kids - Levi is almost 6 and Sadie is 3. Not working as a met though I still have a side business I founded in the space. Work in analytics in the city for a financial services consultancy. Too many hours but what can you do, Montclair is expensive. How are you? Was up in your neck of the woods a few weeks back meeting with a few of our asset management clients in Boston. What a shit-tastic winter we are having, eh? My town lucked out with 6" (local max for the NYC Metro) from the early Dec storm that hit CNE very hard, then had a large ice storm later that month... since then, it's been a fight between rain, torch, and just regular above normal temps. Of course you guys know that as you've been experiencing the same.

A state legislator fed up with CT seat belt laws?

I shouldn't have wasted my time on the initial response.

Yeah, because scientists are trained to lie. Makes sense. Of course you aren't noticing it - it aligns with your Moscow/200 year point.

Just curious, do you ever follow day to day weather or do you wake up dreaming of the GEFS temperature projections relative to normal? Doesn't it get old?

Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis. However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal? Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint. Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?

Posters here are like cartoon characters of themselves. Same well-worn tropes day after day.

This is hyperbolic - you’re essentially griping about 4 consecutive winter months - Dec-Feb last hear and Dec this year without sustained snow cover. Do you realize how many times such a stretch has occurred in NYC in its history?

I can speak firsthand that it's a miserable place for snow. Quintessential nickle and dime. There is literally snow in the air for weeks at a time (the dying lakes squalls that get squeezed out over the big ridge to the west) that never accumulates.