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Everything posted by danstorm

  1. No, it's not... but the majority are underperforming expectations. This is different from a classic convective event. The progs were for 1-3+ of rain over a widespread area for days. In a repeat of the last several events, most west of the city won't break an inch.
  2. Training of what? Light/mod showers? You'll be lucky to crack 0.5"
  3. It was hard enough before climate change shortened our winters to 4 weeks
  4. This appears to be the latest in a string of major underperformers - by major, I mean like at or below the 10th percentile outcome for the majority of the area. Of course, this event is not over, but I wouldn't be shocked if the latest band passing through my section of NJ was more or less all she wrote.
  5. If one really uses one's imagination, you can almost envision a scenario where you post something other than long range temperature departures/CFSv2.
  6. When in doubt, temperatures will overproduce and precip will underproduce in this pattern. We spent a week tracking a period of light/mod rain from Nate...
  7. Whoa, tell us how you really feel... We get it. The storm had a few surprises on its approach to Florida... and each one was fortuitous for the state. Heaven forbid the NHC alert folks about the possible scenarios! We've seen the worst case play out many times. I will never understand the outrage over an evacuation that proves unnecessary. Take a breather, dude.
  8. Absolutely - I mean, what happens now to an island like St. Martin?
  9. The next 18-24 hours will also largely define our memories of this storm - she's sure been an amazing storm to track!
  10. There's been a ton of "NW turn" hallucinations in the last 24 hours but those last few radar frames feels like the real deal.
  11. The posts from this morning are eerily reminiscent of the bust posts we see prior to some of our strongest Nor'Easters during winter.
  12. If this were winter, it would be one of those events where we'd expect 1-2 feet only to have the south trend show up, cause mass toaster baths ... then we'd get a surprise band on the northern fringe that would give us 5-9".
  13. Jan 2016 was already trending positively this far from onset
  14. Yeah, it happens. First legitimate bust (not some silly premature yanksfan bust) of the season in the immediate metro
  15. Looks like NYC and immediate environs may get the ol' 7/10 split this afternoon.
  16. Absolutely not. Track the hourly rainfall rates - 0.5"-1"+/hr is headed right for you. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=OKX&loop=yes This is not some dying cold front that will feel the marine layer and go poof, there's circulation with this thing.
  17. I'd give you 5:1 odds that you'll crack 0.25
  18. The commute via NJT is literally taking years off my life. We are living with the in-laws in Westwood while we are doing construction on our house in Montclair. The bus/train from there is absolutely brutal. Bus took >2hr door to door the other day. Train requires a transfer at Secaucus that is a straight up Darwinian. Push and squeeze and rush all over each other - might as well be living in Shanghai or Delhi ... Port Authority/Penn Station are embarrassments to the city and the work that Amtrak is doing this summer is going to make everything worse. Thankfully, my employer lets me WFH frequently.