weatherwiz

Tomorrow I will be. Up around Albany

HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building

This afternoon looks quite interesting across CT. CAMS get some low-topped action going

I was clueless on Friday. I also thought we were in the divergent portion of the ULJ which was quite strong. Wednesday isn't ideal but the potential is certainly there. I do think the main forcing could lag just slightly but we'll see

I couldn't believe we were in a D3 slight for Friday...did not see any potential at all this far east. With that said...Wednesday looks intriguing

South coast loves these setups

Quite the day down in VA

Don't sleep on tomorrow morning. A brief spin-up is certainly possible somewhere. Pretty strong LLJ moves overhead as a warm front approaches with some modest MLCape.

Oh nice! Are they meteorology majors?

From the little I know about hurricanes those were two factors I did know and thought about often as the week progressed. How often do we really see slow moving systems strike the EC as a major hurricane? As for the dry air I looked alot at mid-level WV imagery and low-level WV imagery...I noticed low-level had tons of dry air around...are both levels extremely important to look at or is any one level more important than the other?

Anyone making the trip up?

Two weeks away! Anyone going?

Two weeks until the conference! Anyone going or plan on going?

Tropical is very challenging...especially with regards to forecasting intensity. When Lane was going on and I was doing briefings every day in the public advisories it would state weakening would occur within 24-hours and it kept strengthening to a 5 lol. That's not a knock on the CPHC...just using that example. Our knowledge of the processes involved within tropical systems is still on the limited side. For now we just rely heavily on models and sometimes I think folks either disregard, don't understand, or don't realize the biases the models have. With tropical systems there is just so much latent heat and convection its easy to see how intensity can be mishandled. Plus (and I see this at school alot and social media) all the focus gets put into SLP maps and what the GFS shows for SLP at 192 hours out...there is so much more to it than that. There was something else I was thinking about with regards to that shear which seemed to develop out of nowhere...could that have been due to a strengthening pressure gradient between Florence and the amplifying ridge to the north?

This is very interesting and something I want to explore. I'm taking an elective tropical meteorology class right now...perhaps we can go over something like this. I've never really done with with tropical forecasting before but this past week has really been intriguing for me...doing briefings for Florence, Isaac, and Olivia and paying attention to weakening/strengthening, etc. Going to what you said about ERC's there was something I was thinking about...on Wednesday when I did my school broadcast I had the IR up from the AM and based on the presentation it had along with cooling cloud tops I thought it would strengthen further but it did just the opposite...started weakening. Is it possible that when it was under going the numerous ERC's that during these processes the combination of dry air and strong shear prevented the strengthening aspect after the completion of an ERC? Basically what I'm trying to get at is if not for the shear/some dry air after the initial ERC Wednesday morning would strengthening had ensued? Or was it the constant ERC's which led to the weakening? (As a note weakening should be in quotations b/c I totally understand that the aspect of the weakening is very minute)