weatherwiz

End of the week certainly is a bit intriguing (only b/c something is being shown) but there are a ton of features at play. First, any shortwave that emerges could easily get sheared out then you have also the HP sliding north of it and this feature in SE Canada which could be a pivotal piece

I am a big fan of the WSSI.

Why are people having meltdowns? I'm confused. Do people think a storm has to be on a model at D10 and then expect the storm to hold on each subsequent run? Most of out storms don't even really become evident on the SLP graphics until like 4-5 days out. I think some need to keep in mind that while everything looks great in terms of pattern evolution we're still dealing with a pretty fast flow aloft. Those fast flows are a mess for guidance, especially when there are so many moving pieces (shortwaves). We're not going to see a scenario where models have a cyclogenesis bomb moving up the coast at D10 and having that be a consistent run-to-run solution.

Digging out of 1888

Not sure why the hostility after 12z. I mean nothing really seems unchanged...but there certainly could be some airmass concerns as as been stated with the lack of cross-polar flow. As long as we don't have a crazy garbage preceding airmass we don't need a -20C 850mb airmass either.

I wonder if this is driven by the lack of data points within the Pacific (especially northern Pacific). We can upgrade models and resolutions and physics all we want but if you're still lacking the quality data to ingest it doesn't really matter. Now...not sure what you can really do given its a giant body of water but it sucks nonetheless.

Spread and run-to-run variations should be expected and will happen. Obviously for many reasons, but perhaps one driving factor in that is the spread within the PNA. That's a pretty sizable spread and (especially when considering structure) could have substantial impacts overall.

I guess one thing I would really like to see become better established on guidance is a better configuration of the height anomalies in the EPO/PNA region and have the ridge axis oriented more S-N into the Gulf of Alaska. You sort of have that look in the medium-range (on the 6z GEFS) but the stout SE ridge and the ridging from the PNA ridge gets pinched off within the West. But getting a configuration would help substantially with establishing a cross polar flow.

Not sure about retrograding back into NS like that but we have see blocks positioned like that. Actually there are some -NAO's where the core of the anomalies extends so far south that parts of NNE actually feature above-average temps during those periods

Tempting but I think my girlfriend would send me packing

Too bad Only Fans wasn't around 10-12 years ago...I could have been rich.

I know when the PV is very strong and it can increasingly hard to disrupt and tear apart and that's why some winters when we're dealing with strong PV's early on it can take literally an entire winter to weaken, but does the same hold true when you establish strong blocks early on? that it's very difficult to break down the block through the season?

I'm kinda pumped/pissed at the same time. that thread I started late summer was actually driven by the potential for this type of scenario to occur (big blocking) and while the initial focus on the thread was ENSO one of my ultimate goals was to get into hemispheric evolutions during the fall prior to big block periods. But what I'm pissed at is things got hectic the past few months and all my work has stalled I haven't been following in-depth month discussion about the winter (from some of the threads here and bigger gurus on Twitter) but was there a strong signal or discussion for this to occur as far back as a month or two ago?

I don't disagree with that but I'm talking more about research aspect as opposed to a overview/review. what I'm referring too I think can enhance accuracy potential in an overview but obviously you wouldn't get into those details during an overview.

I've said this so many times but I wish I was smart enough to take the daily data that is provided and create weekly and bi-weekly averages and running means. The easiest thing would be to just take the sum of daily's for 7-day and 14-day periods and divide but that won't work. For example, if you take the daily values for a month and divide by the # of days in that month, you don't get the value what would be listed for the monthyl value.