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About weatherwiz

  • Birthday 10/28/1988

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    northeast Springfield (near Wilbraham line)
  • Interests
    Weather, sports, ?

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  1. Thank you! Love that price…that’s what I was hoping for
  2. What’s the best “dirt” to get to fill holes in the yard (like gopher holes)? Only thing I can think of is like planting soil but Lowe’s or Home Depot must have something else
  3. The best bet for forecasting temperatures on days like today is using Bufkit and tossing the NAM. With Bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights which is fun to do. Miss doing that with the weather challenge
  4. Cold and rainy and had some sleet. Great day to watch the Bruins and Lightning beat each other up
  5. Some of those EPS members, combined with the OP's evolution at 500 is enough to keep interest in the game
  6. sweet! If I get some time in the upcoming days I want to do an average vs. average with outliers removed. Will be fun to see the difference. The differences though aren't really going to be drastic.
  7. To get the true average outlier seasons should be removed from the calculation of the mean. What really sucks is I have no clue where to go anymore for historical snowfall records. The data blank from the mid 90's to early 2000's sucks and that threadex or whatever page I think that has it had completely different numbers for several stations that I had written down that the NWS had listed like 10-years ago. I wanted to compare the long-term average at all stations and then do a calculation with outliers removed and just curious to see what the difference comes out to be. BUT THE RECORD KEEPING IS ABSOLUTE TOTAL DOG SHIT
  8. This is probably the type of setup we need to actually get something
  9. GFS with a sneaky event Monday night
  10. If snow maps didn't exist 99.999999999% of storms in the D6-10 day range would get little, if any, attention.
  11. Well started making some "headway" with EL Nino composites. Below is a list of EL Nino winters I generated using Eric Webb's Ensemble ONI and the CPC's ONI. I have yet to break down these events into strength b/c I'm not really sure what criteria to use. Majority of EL Nino events peak before the official winter season. Not sure if I want to do peak EL Nino strength or do the strength during the OND or DJF period. Also it's very challenging to do a structure breakdown...from my perspective anyways, the majority of EL Nino events look east-based, but that is using SSTA's. Maybe OLR would be a better proxy
  12. Right, you never want to just take one model and run with it. Understanding which model may be performing the best in a given pattern regime can help provide some great guidance too. But I think we've become so fixated on threats in the D6-10 and beyond range these last several years that expectations have just been cut to shreds and if some D8 "threat" doesn't verify all of a sudden a model or models are trash.
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