weatherwiz

I think there is a low probability of 1'' hail somewhere on the Cape later today.

I still think we see a few small hailers today.

9 days away!!!! Now that we're within 10 days we can do a daily countdown...it's like a slow motion New Year's Eve ball drop

Perhaps they're heavily tied into climo and then the forecaster just uses knowledge of the setup and past events to ultimately determine the percentages?

That's funny you mention this b/c I was just reading some literature on the SPC site on Friday which discussed this. I knew climo was a bit of a factor, but never really fully understood to what degree. I was trying to find some info too as to where the percentages are derived...like what influences a 2% risk or 5%...and so forth. For example...it seems like the risk categories are influenced by the SPC SREF severe wx probs.

Shear is garbage but lapse rates are quite steep. Freezing levels pretty low too. Certainly maybe nothing widespread, but these set ups often always produce at least something.

Don't think it's all day sun with this

Wow that's wild!!

Cold pool small hailers on Monday?

don't know how people can live there

I can't believe there is no watch...let alone an MCD for NC/VA

I would love to see some stations in Siberia lol

Wow...the average high at PANC drops 14°F between September and October

WOW...

There are times where some of the convective outlooks are a little scratching here where some events that shouldn't be overplayed are and ones that should be played up aren't. Heck...even 6/1/11 only had 5% TOR probs...so if you compare 6/1/11 and 6/6/2010 you would probably think you would see the 10% probs on 6/1 and 5% on the other. Anyways...if I remember correctly things looked quite impressive leading up to 6/6/2010 and things went to crap in the AM. I'm trying to remember what the models were showing for lapse rates leading up to 6/6. I think there were some hints at a pseudo EML