weatherwiz

Moving into June (at least through the first week of June) should yield some potentially exciting weather (and the term exciting is just referencing the fact that it will not be boring). Moving into the final week of May, there is strong consensus for strong ridging to develop across the southeastern states (which may yield record heat across many areas) and for our region to be on the crest of the ridge. This could yield some potential for increased convective activity, perhaps in the form of ridge rollers in the form of MCS's. We will also have to keep an eye on any plumes of EML air that could work over the ridge. Perhaps the more intriguing signal on guidance are the very impressive and unseasonably strong s/w's modeled to swing down into the upper-Midwest and traverse the US/Canadian border...in fact it's almost like a bowling ball of s/w's. With this we will continue to see plenty of convective opportunities and unsettled periods. As far as temperatures go you won't really be able to make a specific quantification, we'll have periods (very similar to what we're seeing now, however, with the upward tick in climo the warmer periods will be...warmer) of rather warm (maybe even hot...depending on one's consideration of hot) weather characterized by 80's and even lower 90's in the typical torch spots. The only question is do we add in any humidity with this...maybe slight but we'll deal with that possibility when needed. Our cool periods though may be quite cool...especially NNE. I think over the next 2-4 weeks we should have a rather solid idea of how the weather pattern may set-up for much of the summer. Still some spread and uncertainties with this.

we're right in the beginning of our climo...our season is probably from like mid-June to mid-July before the curve starts dropping. Usually though we've had some events by now. Anyways though...looking ahead the pattern does hint at some solid potential...could become favorable for MCS's at some point.

I am starting to get a little frustrated about the lack of severe. WHERE IS THE SEVERE????

The Northeast just seems to be in a favorable location for amplification of troughs for the foreseeable feature. The Euro and GFS continue to advertise 50-70 knots MLJ streaks developing rounding the base of the amplifying troughs...that's a bit impressive for what's going to be moving into July. I kinda find it hard-pressed to believe though we don't see at least one significant severe weather event. If we can somehow reconfigure the surface while maintain what's happening aloft...it's also inevitable to not have at least the set-up there. Anytime you see a strong W to WNW flow aloft you gotta watch. If that ridge builds into the northern Plains and upper-Midwest we'll be on MCS alert.

Sort of seems like the best lift/forcing is south of us. Sort of tough to gauge but there even appeared to be some hints at some weak subsidence

eh...I would even say like lower 90's with mid 60's dews for oppressive or mid 80's with lower 70's dews. Anyways... there is no signals screaming sustained "heat". Part of the issue with this trainwreck of a thread is terms are being used that don't have clear-cut definition. There have been no clear-cut signals suggesting sustained heat either...unless you're just rip and reading 180-hr 2M temperature forecasts. Sure...maybe in the medium-range we've seen some signals of ridging well north but once the models correct the idea is tossed away...all you have to do is understand the northern hemispheric circulation...as long as there is that low/trough signals to our north no sustained heat is coming. In terms of oppressive humidity...not happening. Maybe a day or two hear and there but that is nothing uncommon and does not defined the summer as "oppressive". mT airmasses into our region are common during the summer. We are supposed to have conditons which are more humid than not and periods of oppressive humidity. What is uncommon, however, if to have sustained periods of oppressive humidity...and let's define oppressive as dews > 73F (it seems like the common threshold is 70-73). Climo now across New England is probably upper 70's to lower 80's for highs and somewhere in the range of 50's for low (mid-to-upper?). In terms of temperatures we've seen nothing special. What has been "special" about this pattern is the frequent rainfall opportunities and anomalous blocking.

Differences between the Euro and GFS, however, the synoptic pattern would be one which favors the potential for severe weather and significant severe weather across the Northeast; including New England Sunday. An unseasonably strong shortwave/jet push into the region and the synoptic look favors the potential for EML ejection into the Northeast. South of the warm front it will become quite unstable. Something to watch over the next several days.

Here's some heat

The GFS has 850 temps of like +2 or +3 across extreme northern ME on the 26th lol

gotcha. I can see the confusion from the statement but that wasn't my intention.

yes...should have explained that further but this explanation is very good.

I may be wrong but the point-and-click forecasts are not human generated. The human generated forecasts from the NWS are within the "Zone Area Forecast" option. I think one way which suggests the P&C is not human generated is by looking at the wind forecasts...sometimes you'll see random ranges like 3-6 mph or 7-11 mph...a human forecaster wouldn't really use such a range.

The overall look is rather strange indeed. I also completely agree that we've seen more and more teleconnection failures recently...too add on to your thoughts (I agree part of it related to the 'you know what') I think part of it too is we had a "false" understanding of them b/c the connections were more "linearly" based...and we've discussed these reasons before so no need to go into length but I'll use the 1995-1996 winter example...b/c that winter featured record snow the thought was weak La Nina's correlated to big winter's here...not true...on a linear correlation level anyways. In terms of the lack of rising heights across our neck of the woods I think it has to do with the structure of the anomaly field across the Arctic/Polar region...unseasonably strong anomalies leading to a strengthened jet and perhaps a uncharacteristically (in terms of the season) confluent zone. There is too much chaos going on in the upper troposphere and heights are not being able to respond as they should.

I just realized that the GFSX Mos from last Friday was a SUBSTANTIAL BUST for Oakland for this week...like a SIGNIFICANTLY HORRIFIC BUST.

I don't think we're looking at that. Now that we're getting into the beginning of summer and towards the heart of summer you can see how the hemispheric pattern is going to be configured. An unseasonably strong vortex looks to remain present at the Pole with seasonably strong ridging across the southern-tier of the country. We will likely remain in the middle of these two gradients which will be characterized by an unseasonably strong and likely zonal jet. Perturbations within the configuration will result in shifts of this gradient so we'll get some periods of some "heat" (90+ and high humidity 73+ dews) but this is not going to be a crazy hot and above-average summer. If you're a fan of active patterns though this pattern should be fairly active and we'll have numerous convective possibilities. Even in the south I'm not sure if they'll see crazy heat...591dm heights aren't anything to write home about as we move through summer. You start seeing 594+ dm show up...then it can be a different story. Just looking at the Euro though we don't even get the 582dm line in here...70's and 80's (as climo climbs so will the temps) will be the theme with this pattern.

We may not have high heat or excessively high dews but the second half of the month could be quite active with convective potential. You would have to think there will be potential to eject an EML this way...where that trajectory is remains to be seen...may be south of us...may be over us.

It looked like yesterday we could get into sun by mid-to-late afternoon. Pretty decent dry slot was advertised on the RH fields

I think the 1st line has been asleep longer than that Pouring out again...but sky is brighter!

I used to be able to do that. Not anymore

I went to sleep like 1:30 and woke up around 4:15

They decided to stop and dump

I planned on walking next door for lunch...rain stops RIGHT as my break ended lol

Took a nap in my car and holy crap was it coming down. That was some heavy rain