weatherwiz

So close

I was doing some reading on sting jets and I must embarrassingly admit, I had sting jet completely confused with something else. Skip forward...I poo pooed it

dandruff?

That is certainly lacking. It was more just in jest how this season there have been a few others named which were complete garbage looking. Remember the one that was named and like 3 hours later dissipated LOL

I can't believe it's not named yet. I mean they've named some waves that lasted like 5 hours.

some moisture way get suck in our direction

Potential Cyclone Sixteen looking pretty healthy on IR

What products can you look at to analyze eddy momentum fluxes and and flux convergences? I know I've seen some graphics out there. If you wanted to relate Rossby Wave Breaking and its impact on eddy momentum flux is that something you just visualize based on looking at 500 vort?

Yeah there was a meso for sure. Could see it on radar too. I think I posted an animation of it on social media...I still have it on my phone. I'll try to post.

Also was supposed to say king not kind But yeah...the period is highly intriguing and there is some historical correlation with that date (very similar to the period centered around 05/31 with siggy severe in the Northeast). There has been some pretty decent consistency in the PNA becoming more positive while the NAO becomes a bit more negative..good signal for something. We'll see if it leads to a prolonged pattern change too...not so sure its very prolonged but way too early and too much uncertainty to speculate on that.

I edited the topic...not sure why I put Low Topped Severe Weather Potential...should have been Low Topped Squall Line Potential

Excellent job sniffing out those details, and not only highlighting them but pretty much nailing down what may transpire. You're the king when it comes to gravity waves/meso lows

Right now lacking a stronger push of llvl theta-e air to contribute to some instability, but the dynamics are certainly there. At least we'll see more heavy rain. I sort of think Potential Cyclone 16 kinda screws with us a bit.

Just in time to see Tom Brady in the AFC divisional round looking for his 35th ring

Something I've really began to notice (especially the past several years) is how often tornado wording gets tossed around on *surprise* *surprise* social media every time we see a low pressure, triple point, or warm front set-up over the area. I totally get these can produce and "you never know" but the word gets tossed around so much people probably just disregard it. We're at a point now where there is enough research, coupled with meteorological knowledge, to have an idea of what variables and combination of variables must be present to truly warrant that risk. Yesterday in my opinion had like a 1%....probably even less chance of producing a tornado...is it really even worth mentioning it for odds that are so low?

Still have that low topped squall line potential too next week!! Just need to get some elevated CAPE into here.

Oh wow...totally missed those. That's pretty dang impressive. Winds were about that strong not far from the sfc so they seem reasonable.

Although garbage cans tipped over makes it easier for the animals to eat...bears, raccoons, and other creatures need to eat too

I saw garbage cans and recycling cans flipped over on the way to the highway this morning...considered stopping to pick them up but I was running late and y commute is an hour.

Great post..especially with regards to the spatial anomaly discussion. The system was certainly anomalous (defining this by 500 height anomalies as well as other anomalies involved), however, the output was not completely anomalous when you compare the output to the product responsible for the output.

If it were a sting jet though wouldn't we have seen a period of anomalous gusts? (Gusts that were much higher than the mean over a period of time?) If as that went through and there was a swath of gusts like 65-70+ mph I think you could certainly argue sting jet...but the magnitude of the gusts don't seem to be much of an outlier of what was experienced with the CAA and pressure rises.

That had absolutely nothing to do with a stinger...not even remotely close. Take a look at BDL's hourly obs...the winds began to crank as they switched to N and then NW. It roared all night b/c the winds shifted right around midnight...which is exactly what some of us said.

Just heard what was either 1) the neighbors banging (not physically...they’re always banging doors or walls) 2) transformer pop 3) tree fall power back on! Back to sleep...up in 90 min

Power just went out in Windsor Locks...right after I put my phone to charge

Major, major kudos to models for sniffing that out and being consistent with it as well. I feel like models have gotten much better with this particular feature over the past several years with model upgrades