weatherwiz

Euro starting to load in on weathermodels

I've noticed the euro has been a bit late the past several days (at least on weathermodels). Even the 12z GFS bufkit was late on pennstate today

Verbatim on the GFS I think you would see a major band well up to the Mass Pike. Imagine if we were to pop at 700 low...damn

dendrite should just create an algorithm that blocks the posting of snow maps

I would also have to think too that processes involved in the evolution of this whole system across the southern states and across the East would end up far outweighing any influence of the MJO. I actually can't wait because this very subject is on the agenda in my advanced forecasting class

Interesting how the HRRR is a bit aggressive with some snow squalls tomorrow. Not sure we have enough moisture to generate anything but the environment is conducive so if anything were to pop they could be quite hefty with maybe even some lightning

Crazy...looks like they dropped like 5 degrees around 4-5. Gotta love these nights with clear skies and HP

Was looking around at some overnight lows last night and saw ABE put up a -9 lol...no way that can be right?

Let's do it, this is what dreams are made of. It's what we've been waiting for.

What a fun assessment of overnight models...can't say I'm totally shocked LFG This is the stuff where you need to tape two yardsticks together. Going to home depot to get a few yard sticks before they sell out.

I don't think we would see any scenario where anyone has to worry about sleet. Any concern would be more related to subsidence

Verbatim I think the Euro has the look of what would result in significant snow band well into SNE

Not speaking for our region necessarily but I've found the GFS to really struggle in these setups. This is going to be like the 5th winter in a row with a major winter storm event across a large part of the deep South...IIRC with these previous years the Euro crushed the GFS, both in lead time and event evolution. Not sure what it means here exactly but when you see how the Euro tries evolving this later in the weekend, I think it bodes more well versus not for us

That is gotta be closing in on one of the most devastating ice storms on record for parts of the mid-Atlantic there into GA where they CAD well.

Something to be extremely careful with and I've seen a bit of this on X is you have to be extremely careful just using QPF trends as a means of seeking out north/south trends. Ultimately, that is a practice that shouldn't be used in the first place but that holds especially true in this setup. there are many other factors at play with this which will impact QPF...not just total QPF but northward extent of QPF. You can increase the dynamics and forcing aloft WITHOUT having a bump north in the sfc low which can result in both increasing the QPF and blossoming QPF north. There is room for a quite a bit of PVA into the region with favorable upper-level dynamics and we may continue to see increasing QPF into the region which is independent of storm track

There would be a good chance for a heavy band well north

Which I don't think should have been a big surprise. That's how these setups tend to typically evolve. This is a setup in which I am very curious how the AI camp would perform...there is alot of physics at play here and even the traditional modeling can struggle in that sense...not to the fault of the models but more of a product of just a lack of more powerful computing (que quantum computing). If I had to guess, I think we continue seeing more bumps...I don't see a whole lot arguing for keeping this too far south (big change from what I was thinking a day or two ago).

Where convection develops and blossoms too is going to play a big role in where sfc low either re-develops or rapidly begins to strengthen. If convection can develop rapidly off the SC coast and be more consolidated (MCS like) this would bode very well for pumping up heights northeast of it. I kind of think this may be in the ballpark of what the 0z Euro was doing...but there is also the whole northern branch to consider. There is just so many moving pieces with this and so many smaller scale processes which are going to play big roles.

Confluence is always a PITA to forecast but I think right now, I would favor a track more north. As modeled, the bulk of the confluence being more north I think favors potential for additional northern pushes. But we also have room to continue building the heights northeast of this. The degree and intensity of CAD into the mid-Atlantic may also play a big factor

Should also see some squalls move across the region tomorrow...particularly along the Mass Pike. Timing late afternoon and evening

The biggest challenge in all of this is going to be how far south the Arctic boundary can get before stalling. This is always a big challenge...the past several winters dealing with these scenarios I think there has been a tendency for models to be not aggressive enough with how far into the South the boundary gets. Also, in this case it is very feasible the sfc front gets deeper into the South while say front around 850 is held back as it pushes against stronger mid-level ridging from the strong ridging east of Florida. This would play a big role in where cyclogenesis ultimately develops but looking at the pattern over the Northeast I think we would stand a good shot at building this north enough to at least get a significant event to the coast.

One thing to watch too is this will likely heavy (heavy) precip well north of the sfc low...more north than you would typically expect

This is definitely concerning in terms of a widespread ice storm within the mid-South, however, with that the north trends that have been ongoing are very noteworthy and should not be dismissed. I would not be surprised if the sfc low actually developed a bit faster and farther west than what the GFS had (6z run). It might be difficult for interior but coastal New England could be in play for some significant snows

I need around 84-85” to hit 100” so really need these next few weeks to step it up

yup...iPhone weather app. He just told me.