weatherwiz

Great stuff, are all these plots from the University of Miami. I love these wind shear/instability plots

I was doing some digging last week and some of the extended guidance seemed to want and relax wind shear across the MDR a bit, however, I wasn't particularly sold and was wondering if that was a product of guidance in the extended favoring climo and wanting to decrease shear as we get closer to peak climo. Waters in the MDR are also pretty meh. Will continue to be a focus for home brew, especially as we start getting more active with fronts.

Water temperatures are way too cold once you quickly get north of NC and there will be a lot of upwelling early next week. You would need probably a high end 3 or 4 approaching the Carolina coast and rapidly accelerate northward to get a cane hit here. Otherwise any system is would transition to extra-tropical or sub-tropical extremely quickly.

Yup...have to see exactly how quickly the front moves and where it stalls. Just based off the look its possible GFS may be a bit too fast with it...although the 6z GFS might be hedging towards something I'd lean towards. But that is a stout LLJ with PWATS well over 2" region-wide.

Yup. That's a setup to where you have to worry about flash flooding being a concern over a greater area.

wow

McDonalds overall is awful now...not that it was ever particularly great but its extremely overpriced and significantly worse quality. Can let to to like Applebees or Chilis and get a better burger dinner for only a few extra bucks. The McDonalds across from BDL isn't bad though. Had a double quarter pounder from there not long back and it was great.

Now you have me craving that. Haven't had one of those in a while.

Dumping here in Windsor. Was hoping we could get a lightning strike out of this

Yes, but that was within the area of where the highest potential for the greatest rainfall totals. Serious stuff there but rather localized and confined to one area. Basically a much needed rain for everyone with little flooding outside of some usual areas in Fairfield County around Bridgeport.

Very slow moving cold front becoming parallel to the upper flow and potential for a wave to develop along it. Deep southerly flow out ahead of it so a continuous fetch of moisture. See what happens but these is how you can get widespread 3-4" rain amounts and get those areas of 6-7"+

Now Sunday into Monday is something that can be a legit flash flood concern

I think mosquitos have evolved to the point to where they don't care anymore. As long as its above 50 they will be out looking for blood. Dry conditions, humid conditions, don't matter to them anymore

Was intrigued in potential for a strong or two within CT today should anything pop but I wonder if there is a window early afternoon for a localized damaging wind gust or brief tornado across SE MA.

An flooding yet outside of some random Bridgeport roads where the drains are clogged from McDonalds wrappers and bullet shell casings?

That's some serious heat for the desert Southwest later this week

Just dropping by to add this

I think what's important to note though is a good chunk of that is tied into its prediction of scattered or numerous downpours during the afternoon tomorrow and again on Thursday (that only goes to 15z but speaking to the run as a whole which goes to 18z Thursday). I still highly doubt at the end of the day totals that substantive are that impressive but definitely need to watch the Berks and Greens for that. Most from this slug tonight see 1-3" though probably 1.5-2 is the most common...and then its just going to be whoever can catch in on pop up convection the next few days to pad on totals. I still don't think the risk for flooding is all that widespread with the greatest flooding risk in typical flood-prone areas.

That does have a bit of a llvl meso on it...relatively weak but worth watching

Looks like this stuff was fueled by a pretty tight theta-e gradient and on the edge of some pretty decent MUCAPE. MUCAPE values of 2000 J surging north through SNE. That's not too bad...I don't recall guidance having MUCAPE that high

In Windsor and getting a hefty downpour currently

I was hopeful we could sneak in another period of very hot temperatures into the region towards the end of the first week of August but not so confident on that anymore. Seems like the more favorable look is now pushed out into the second week. And when you have to start chasing dates...never usually a good thing, especially when working downhill from peak climo.

Not so sure about that Some of the maps being posted around makes it seem like Noah needs to make another appearance from heaven Great to be getting some of these setups lately. Giving people much needed rain without the concern for significant flooding issues. I know there was the flooding within SW CT last week but these events are perfect to tackle the deficit without cause for major concern

There is still a quite a bit of uncertainty in how the whole thing evolves for sure. I mean if you look at the latest NAM's, there is actually some potential we get enough drying and maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow (especially in CT) that we could pop isolated thunderstorms with potential for localized damaging wind gust or even a brief tornado. I was thinking the greatest max would be west of here...Hudson into NJ but its possible you may see the max zone be something like northeast CT into northeast MA and southern NH and then a few local maxes elsewhere.

Seems like the initial slug of heavy rain is trending a bit more progressive in nature and then its more of a daytime heating, convectively driven pop up showers/thunder during the day tomorrow and Thursday. We'll see if that slug can get a widespread 1-3" of rain but anything exceeding that is going to be quite localized and tied into convection. A good soaking rain for the ground