weatherwiz

At least with nothing modeled we don't have to endure D10+ snowfall maps from 750 different models after every run

I'm talking more about saying an upcoming stretch looks boring or quiet or writing off an upcoming stretch just because a storm isn't popping up on guidance. I would definitely wait until we're closer to get super excited and hopeful, but right now we stand in a good spot...much better than looking at a ridge in the east

100% agreed

IMO, this is one of the best modeled looks we have had in several years. I really hate saying that because that's been said multiple times each of the last few winters but not only is there consensus in how the teleconnections trend and align but how they become structured. That period around Jan 15th...I find it extremely difficult to believe there would not be something around...unless we totally lose the look. But as long as we maintain this look I think we are going to have 2-3 storm threats within a 10 day period.

When you dig deeper into the model analysis it's a pretty encouraging look IMO and should have folks interests peaked. I get part of the "fun" is just whipping out SLP and snow maps to see something but you gotta look beyond those.

I'm not even all that upset about this weekends cutter, that system is going to be a big player and setting up the pattern behind it for mid and late January. I want to see things hold through the remainder of the week and on weekend guidance before truly becoming excited but it's great to finally see a look which is more conducive for amplifying northern streams with some southern stream involvement. That 13th-15th period and 17th-19th period is very close to producing something

Also those anomalies are probably heavily skewed from the few systems bringing brief anomalously warm temperatures through the midwestern states and even here potentially this weekend if that system does indeed cut like that

Not sure I agree with that post. If anything, much of those anomalies, particularly central states are probably driven moreso by overnight temperatures. But the pattern moving towards the 2nd and 3rd week of January is looking conducive for some coastal storm potential. I don't think that look has changed all that much over the past several days.

My sister had it a few weeks back, ended up in the hospital for 2-3 days. They told her she was lucky she went in when she did

was looking at MOS/NBM for BOS and then bufkit and holy crap...think MOS may be way overshooting, not just today/tonight but through the day tomorrow. BOS may hover right around freezing through much of tomorrow...maybe a case of rising to like 35 or so late in the afternoon but bufkit is quite cold there

snowing pretty good here...great snow growth, covered everything quickly.

I think you misread, he said continental view, not continental flow.

That almost looks too perfect

I don't think I'd consider 40's a torch either, even during peak winter climo, although probably for northern New England I would. I guess though getting above like 47-48 may be a different story.

Hopefully because of this prolonged cold a number has been done on the tick population

Being held by the Statue of Liberty

Sometimes there is way too much focus on what phase a particular teleconnection is in or what the upcoming phase will be, however, there really is no right answer. It depends on what outcome or result you're looking for. Generally speaking, the most active weather is going to occur during the transition period, this is when you're most likely to see potential for stronger weather systems. This is why if you're rooting for a big dog, like a top percentile type of snowstorm along 95, you want to see the NAO becoming less negative with respect to time as a storm is riding up the coast. In the sense of the PNA you would probably want to see the PNA becoming positive (ridge building into the west) but ultimately, you would want the PNA to be progressive or transient because you want that trough to continue ejecting east which would then come with ridging building into the West (developing RNA). If you're looking for active weather you would want the pattern to setup and kind of remain a fixture for a period of time...this is something that can work extremely well for us and is how we get the periods like we did in like 1996, 2011, 2013. But because pieces are constantly moving globally it is extremely difficult to get such regimes to develop and maintain during the cold season. What you would hope is to get a great pattern to develop but be able to revert right back to that type of pattern after periods of relaxation.

Yeah you've been pretty spot on so far. It can be really difficult to forecast the extent of the more anomalous regimes teleconnections can become.

I can see why the frustration is there but it really is only January 2. If we were in a strong EL Nino regime then I would probably be in the camp of throwing away the rest of winter, however, I don't see any strong arguments or data that can make one say with a high level of confidence the remainder of winter is cooked. Sure, December could have been better as a region given how cold it was with the constant shot of Arctic airmasses, but what's the correlation to increased snowfall and storms with Arctic airmasses? I would wager not particularly high...those airmasses are usually quite cold and dry and more often than not, any bigger storms precede the Arctic air. We are also just beginning to enter peak climo which I would presume most receive the majority of their seasonal snowfall between mid January and mid February (obviously different the farther north you go). Yeah places finished under climo in December for snow but its not like December is a massive snow month in the climo department. Whatever negative departures a location has from not meeting December snow quota can easily be made up in January. This milder pattern we're about to enter, may not be a bad thing. Let's reshuffle things up a bit and go from there. There is nothing indicating this mild stretch is something that will be prolonged.

IMO, there is way too much instability and hostility to have a solid idea moving past mid-month. I agree that there are times and situations where someone who is incredibly skilled at long-range forecasting can accurately nail pattern evolution and regime looking several weeks down the road...I mean there are some meteorologists who make a killing doing such forecasts for energy companies. Anyways, there is just so much at play right now and so many factors. While we have an idea of how things may unfold over the next few weeks, there are still uncertainties and low confidence in this and because of that there is no way to gauge how the pattern evolves past that because it will be highly dependent on how the next few weeks evolve. But in these situations this is where analogs can provide tremendous value but when you're dealing with the wildcards such as the stratosphere...even analogs may not work too well.

We get fake cold, fake snow, and fake tornadoes. Ahhh this was fun but was May, not April. I can still feel the adrenaline rush

Let’s see what 2026 can bring. The best part of 2025 weather wise was the gustnado that came within several feet of me back in April. Should watch that video again.

Must be the hangover then

I think some have had wayyyh to much champagne

Yup...I am intrigued in that period too. Looks quite chaotic and that combined with the variance indicates the pattern should be more on the active side.