weatherwiz

might be what to watch for upstate NY/VT in the next 3-5 hours

I'd watch the 10:00 PM - 1:00 AM window. If the HRRR is right with that evolving cluster there may be some significant wind damage (assuming storms can root surface-based). That's some insane DCAPE values Very high derecho composite parameter too. Suggestive of increased potential anything becoming organized may develop an organized cold pool, enhancing wind potential.

The main show was always supposed to be after 7-8 PM lol. Anything before then was tied into the potential for discrete supercells. That obviously didn't happen because of the cloud debris/smoke and just too much capping to over come. But you have the front and shortwave moving into the environment. Things are going to take off

Front/trough continue advancing south EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed

This is probably going to be the area of focus. Mesoanalysis (using the RAP) erodes SBCIN and MLCAPE in this region over the next 2-4 hours

18z NAM gone wild in upstate NY. That hodographs is nuts. About as perfect of winds turning with height as you'll see lol...maybe would want just a tad more southerly component to sfc wind. But over 4000 J of MLCAPE in this kinematic environment

whoops... Not the first time a part of Maine has been in 10% tor, first time for 10% hatched. But this is the farthest north for 10%. @Winter Wizard I think posted a map a page or two back showing the data from Iowa St

@CoastalWx post earlier about watching southwest of where SPC has is looking good. Hourly runs of the HRRR are beginning to get a bit more aggressive with activity back across upstate NY, northern VT, and norther NH. Stuff may even get closer to central VT/NH. May see a southward expansion of the enhanced at 20z

Not sure what the brown shading implies but I'm sure a tornado watch would be most likely. Kind of shocked though only 60% chance of issuance...but that is covering any potential for stuff to pop later afternoon. I think the real concern is more evening and early overnight so may be too early for a watch on that stuff. So we may see a watch soon and then more later

MCD out...60% chance for a watch

I wouldn't be surprised if that areas gets more tornadoes than what's realized. Dual-pol will make this easier but I bet if we had the data there would be a secondary max (if not overall max) of severe weather instances across that part of Maine, its just it does unreported because of population density. They probably end up with an overlap of favorable ingredients more times than the remainder of the region. Far enough north to be influenced by the stronger jet dynamics/shortwaves and far enough south to tap into warmer/humid air.

No, this is the first time its happened since SPC introduced that.

Going to the Sox game on Sunday. May be dodging some t'storms

For sure. Tons of CAPE up in the hail zone

I just can't get over the environment. 50-60 knots of bulk shear per mesoanalysis with >40 knots of effective shear. Forecast is for ~200 m2/s2 of of effective helicity with MLCAPE approaching and exceeding 2000-2500 J/KG. Forecast hodos. Based on what CAMS are spitting out its very difficult to believe we will come out of today without any significant severe. Hopefully anyone camping or out in those areas is aware and has shelter plans.

The same can be said anywhere really when it comes to lapse rates. There was a setup in the midwest a few months back which was flagged with higher tornado probabilities and potential for strong and long-tracked tornadoes but that never materialized...and it was a setup in which they had relatively weak lapse rates. It truly is hard to get a full fledged higher end severe weather outbreak without the present of steep lapse rates. The lapse rates here that day were horrible...but I recall they weren't modeled to be as bad as what actually transpired.

I was sitting in the McDonalds parking lot across from BDL when the tornado warning went out and was hoping something would drop

One of those two weekend days had a big microbust in CT and the other was up near Boston

Tornadoes no but I think that was the day of the big microburst or macroburst near Boston...either this day or the next.

12z NAM supports that idea

We've had 10% hatched before but this is the first time with the CIG additions which only became operational some months ago

That looks like it has a nasty hail core per ZDR. Probably dropping some big ones

I knew a 10% would eventually come

I've read that if that tornado had either started a bit sooner or just tracked a few miles different the death count would have been substantially higher. Just missed a more concentrated populated area by a few miles

Certainly possible the smoke could have an impact on surface temperatures but with an elevated mixed-layer moving in and dewpoints climbing instability shouldn't be an issue. Also, in terms of the MCS...this may sort of set the boundary for where the corridor of highest severe weather potential exists. This will probably leave behind some residual outflow boundaries and also have to watch out for a strong differential heating zone which may become established. But once the MCS passes things should begin destabilizing quickly. Big question I think is going to be do storms pop during the afternoon (like HRRR has). These would be more discrete/supercell and pose the greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes