weatherwiz

Sharon, CT heads up soon

Rain is absolutely nuts here

I think its hung up in central CT...probably very close to BDL

Its worth watching. Much different versus Saturday. Per mesoanalysis any CIN from the rain moving through has essentially eroded and instability is building quickly. Just have to probably push the warm front a little more east but western areas definitely need to watch this given how radar is unfolding. Pushing 1500 J MLCAPE into SW CT with 200 m2s2 of effective SRH.

Might have to consider a TOR watch at this point. Everything blossoming is rotating

one reported on the ground northeast of Scranton

ramping up the TORs in NY

watch be coming soon for western CT

It's a good thing there is minimal sfc instability or at the least sfc parcels aren't getting to the LFC. Also, thats some pretty hefty ZDR values around Monroe to Seymour to Oxford...definitely some FF concern

there was an even a report of wind damage in Shrub Oak, NY near Putnam Valley

It has a nice mid-level mesocyclone. If there was a bit more sf instability that would probably try producing. I wouldn't be shocked if some wind damage reports came in but perhaps its still a bit elevated so wind isn't mixing down. But there's also a big increase in lightning...a sign this is strengthening

warning went out for that after my post, but that is for the cell south of the one I was referring too

maybe because its a bit elevated but surprised no warning or at least a SPS on that cell heading towards Fairfield County/Danbury...decent wind signature on velocity

Could be a nice line that organizes early tomorrow afternoon for E CT and points east

Same here. I feel like I didn't even really get to enjoy the summer. I regret not setting up shop outside and working like I did the past few summers. But I got myself one of those towers with 3 monitors hooked up and it would have just been a pain to bring that outside each day/inside and then the power strip. But its been work/summer classes so haven't been able to do much. I try and sit outside during the evenings but we get destroyed with mosquitos.

Already dealing with the later sunrises and the earlier sunsets are getting noticeable too, it blows.

Yeah the duration is certainly a question, but then again, duration of higher heat events is always trickly here just because of our geographical proximity to Canada and vulnerability of fronts moving through. I guess the question would be, do any fronts completely alter the pattern or would it just be a case of multiple days of average temps before we blow another warm front through and bring in another round of heat? Magnitude isa challenge too, but that is a very large plume of ~+25C 850 temps being modeled into the OV...doesn't take much to really break some of that off and send it our way, especially ahead of a front or even build the airmass in if ridging expands east.

Tip made a post on it yesterday, but you can see signals in that likelihood. Matches up kind of well too climatologically where we can get big (kind of final) big heat pushes in early August. The longevity of it though will certainly be a question given the continued theme for troughing to our northwest, but if anything that at least keeps the door open for cold fronts/convective potential

Higher heat and humidity will be building in through the first week of August.

HRRR was a solid line moving through

what a sounding

Another decent looking setup when you look at dynamics, however, doesn't look like there is going to be any room for cloud breaks tomorrow. Quite the soupy airmass, warm front nearby, and no capping. Going to be lots of clouds and pop up showers. Timing of the front/forcing not idea either...but...there may be a shot for some strong storms on Wednesday, especially east of the River.

It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season.

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters.