weatherwiz

There were a few of us who mentioned we would see a flip to significantly warmer weather (even some heat and humidity) moving into the second half of May

What a stretch this week, called beautifully too back at the end of April.

HRRR has been all over the place so can probably toss that. Interesting how the 3km NAM at 12z was very similar evolution to the HRRR yesterday. There is good convergence along the shoreline so I would not be surprised if things took off a bit as the front nears

was unsure if they would go with the watch or not. I could certainly see so a bit southwest but might be a stretch for southern CT...although no choice but to throw entire counties under the watch.

you might be in a good spot in Fairfield. Looks like greatest potential is right along the shoreline. Most of the action though may end up crossing the Sound

Watch is out until 9:00 PM

you should be good...timing for anything there is after 4-5 PM...probably more towards 5-7

The 7z run knocked BDL down to 92 for today but gotta say...the NBM did quite well for yesterday's temps. In the case of today, the only thing I can think of is there was a good bit of guidance perhaps slower with the cold front. I want to read more into what changes were made with NBMv5...I briefly did this a few weeks ago and there was mention this version was even more accurate with temperatures. I think the NBM may have a more "accurate" mixing capability versus traditional MOS and also isn't as scaled or tied into climo.

I’ll take it too… if the 75-80 are dews

Unfortunately not.

Wow not bad. Just wait until we get a massive derecho to blow across the whole region one day

Just as long as things get active for my annual first two weeks of June storm chasing

Not a record for ORH? What’s the record

Izzy finally came home

Small microburst around Hudson

Does anyone know where the SSTA data for each Nino region was moved to? There was a link which went back to 1950 and I think one that dated back even farther (definitely looking for this one). EDIT: got it...had an error in my link!

Finally able to bring home the dog today but this is going to be a scorcher drive. I currently don't have A/C in my car and my gf car is in the shop. A little worried about this with the dog but we'll just have to drive with the front windows open and hope the drive on the highway will at least make it feel cooler in the car.

Let's shoot for 45

Hopefully one of many

I have to agree with this. Perhaps there is some sort of relationship with how EL Nino's evolve during the summer and what we experience during the summer in terms of big heat or not, but strong(er) EL Nino events don't really become mature until we're in the dead of summer or even back half of summer. If anything, I would think the correlation would start showing as we moved into Fall

NBM not backing down at BDL tomorrow...13z run still throwing up 95

One underrated aspect that is going to suck about the RRFS replacing the various meso models is it runs MUCH slower

yup...north today, south tomorrow. damn. NAM came back down to Earth too with the mlvl lapse rates...had a feeling it was a bit too aggressive with the steeper lapse rates. DCAPE not bad though...probably see some scattered wind damage reports tomorrow along that swath you mentioned

Not too mention the BL flow becoming a bit more westerly...which may be related more to a faster FROPA. Looks like better convergence towards the south coast

3km is a shutout tomorrow and the HRRR has development from eastern PA moving across NJ, southern CT, and southern RI lol. 3km probably ran using Breslow's algorithm