weatherwiz

Screwed up earlier...I think I said uncapped Thursday but in fact, we may end up capped given how warm it is aloft. Best chance for anything during the afternoon may be the northern Hudson Valley actually into NNE where the forcing will be stronger and mlvl temps a bit cooler

You're correct in that thinking and I am idealizing it that way. Adding perspective to this thinking though, the reason why I am idealizing it that way is because it works. But you're 100% correct, we don't do that around here, or extremely rarely. But it isn't proper or really correct to try and compare our environments or setups to those of the Plains. We all know why the Plains get higher-end/widespread outbreaks - EML. As you know, when it comes to getting severe weather or tornadoes - an EML isn't necessarily important (if you want widespread/high-end severe it is). So, I guess the jest of the series of posts is to try and put out there that in our discussion of this potential, we aren't calling for widespread severe or higher end severe...so if we only get a handful or svr reports or a tornado some aren't screaming "bust"...a handful of svr reports and even a tornado would fit the mold of what the most logical outcome is from this setup. This will be a mesoscale assessment for sure. We get dews 73-75F and bring about some cloud breaks...that would provide enough instability to perhaps fire a few cells and make those cells interesting.

Setups with off the charts wind shear tend to not really produce just because sufficient buoyancy tends to be limited. If setups of this magnitude had a tendency to produce, our average tornado numbers would be significantly higher. These very large hodographs with the veered llvls imply a great deal of llvl warm air advection, which is great, but not when its a theme through the entire troposphere. With this said, these setups always need to be closely watched and monitored because even one tornado or pocket of wind damage is likely disruptive to life/property. We'll have to see how much buoyancy we can develop but when 500mb temps are only progged to be ~-7C or -8C...big flag you aren't getting much in that department, particularly enough to provide parcels with additional acceleration once past the LFC.

The one drawback in this type of scenario too is you can often get a ton of clouds/precipitation...this is where something along the lines of an advecting EML because it allows for rapid clearing and capping behind the WAA driven precip. The other problem with Thursday too is the degree of shear is so strong and the lapse rates are so weak that it will be difficult to develop mature enough updrafts to really utilize the shear and be strong enough to continue growing vertically and not get toppled over.

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though

Yeah sure is. This could potentially be a high risk scenario depending on how the details evolve. Could have significant tornado potential depending on storm mode and in fact, there could be two rounds of tornadic supercells; one in the morning then again later in the day. Tornado potential may be a bit lower with round 2, however, if linear mode dominates in which we'd probably see a significant wind event.

Save 80/65 for Christmas. bring on 99/75

For sure the upcoming weekend will be on the cool side behind the system but the week should be right around average and Thursday quite a bit above. For BDL, I wouldn't be shocked if they hit 80-81 on Wednesday

Another tally mark under the "AWT" category

Great, now there is a whole lot of media hype about the "cold blob" of water south of Greenland. Isn't that this the manifestation of the AMO heading towards the negative phase?

I am going to guess the NAM is a bit overdone with the mid-level lapse rates which could put a bit of a damper on the potential in terms of higher-end potential stuff, but that would still probably be a tornado outbreak across PA/southern NY into NJ.

Heavy violence across PA on Thursday via the 6z NAM

Looks like some training supercells in Maine

We're def getting widespread rain and at least embedded thunderstorms. Just a matter of whether there will be any embedded strong/severe storms, and if so, is it rather localized or more scattered?

I wonder how much elevated CAPE we can get into the region tonight. There will be some sfc CAPE but there also will be an inversion probably so we probably or may not tap into the sfc instability. The NAM tends to overdo elevated CAPE but if it were to be right...it will be a very loud night, at least across CT, RI, and SE MA.

It's certainly intriguing for sure, especially given the shear forecast. If we aren't going to get steep mlvl lapse rates then hopefully we can get dewpoints into the lower 70's and at least increase potential to push MLCAPE values ~2000 J. Too early to really worry about CAPE potential but if we can muster 1500-2000 J of MLCAPE in this environment, there would be some nasty storms for sure.

best chance of severe yes. But we do have great dynamics and potent shortwave moving through with strong height falls so I think precip. will be expansive. What kills our severe potential with this is the lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and/or stronger cooling aloft. Having those present would yield stronger instability, despite the loss of heating. We will destabilize though after sunset just from increasing dewpoints though but don't think it will be enough to maintain svr potential outside of super localized

I do think we'll see widespread precipitation with thunderstorms moving through the entire region but risk for any strong or even localized severe I think is extremely low.

I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.

It’s hard to get overly excited for organized severe weather or a higher end severe potential without any signals of an EML. But if we can get dews into the 70’s with strong shear and height falls we can get swaths of wind damage

The timing Sunday looks awfully late...not good. Was a bit shocked to see the risk for for east with the D3. Was kind of hoping maybe we would start seeing some faster timing but 0z NAM is even slower

Actually it worked out well! Wasn't really expecting anything wild or out of the ordinary. Part of the fun on this is picking a location and then adjusting as needed. Because of the road network here and limited visibility with trees and hills, our preference is to always be at a spot well ahead of the storms, particularly for shelf cloud views. I tend to prefer not chasing the storms as they're ongoing (unless its being out ahead of them) because I don't want to risk encountering a flooded road or something like a tree falling if driving along roads which are heavily forested. I'd say today worked out as could have expected. Big winds or even hail is just an added bonus.

Ended up going north and catching 84 in Newtown and following storms along 84 into Waterbury. Wind wasn’t much but some lightning, a few loud booms, and very heavy rain.

Debating on going more north to Danbury and parking at the mall but thinking we just stay put. It’s about 25-30 minute drive and don’t want to fight traffic

Any day that ends with Y blows. Add in the fact people are absolute lunatics make it worse