weatherwiz

If that first low can help set the stage for the subsequent systems I'd sacrifice that being more of a mix or even rain.

Transitions from Nina to Nino usually good in the severe department too

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense

That would absolutely be a wild card but I think its more likely the TPV is going to end up on the other side of the hemisphere

Yup...once you get into about mid February through mid March the swings can be pretty enormous. It's unlikely any one pattern regime truly dominates for more than several days just because of the changes which are going on within the hemisphere. In terms of temperatures and next week, I think its a very difficult signal. I think overall, the AO/NAO/PNA structure point towards more average to slightly above average...but that isn't a bad thing when talking about the potential for an increasingly active pattern. Some of our best snows and stretches come in that sort of regime.

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow.

Should be an interesting ride the back half of February probably right into at least the first week of March. After about the second week of March or so I will be game to start looking for warmer weather. Until then lets pile it on

how far north cirrus gets

very generous!

Well you need to write a thesis statement of all the "ifs" that need to happen...chances are it isn't happening

This made me laugh too hard

I don't know if this is necessarily about bringing the storm more north as much as it is building a precipitation shield farther poleward due to better dynamics. That's probably something to watch for. There really is little to support the storm bumping north, however, if we can increase the dynamics a bit (with assistance from a better northern stream) we might be able to build some light precip into the region.

Nothing like that really. This is also probably more WOR. Someone though could probably pickup 1/2-1" or so.

I like the color blue

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates

Telling Will which model to use

Another thing to factor into the Sunday/Monday ordeal too is this is really going to be the first system in quite some time that is convectively active across the deep South and that is something that could negatively influence the northern side of the storm and have much moisture/QPF is really available.

I've been very confused about this. Where has all the talk come from about muting warm ups all winter? Outside of that stretch we had in January, I don't think there's been any [realistic] signals of any "warmups". I mean I suppose you can quantify this week as a "warmup" though its still below climo. Where between January and up until now has there been any true warmups signaled? And 2m temperature anomaly maps from a few OP runs

If we could shift that ridge maybe a couple hundred miles west and pump the heights up a bit more (speaking about pattern beyond the Sun/Mon). I really don't think the second half of the month is totally lost but we'll just have to hope something can work in our favor in terms of overall evolution

As they say at the DMV, "NEXT"

Had my first severe weather dream of the season last night. There was a large severe risk from the Plains through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region into the mid-Atlantic. I was deciding on and where to chase. The SPC had wording saying around Detroit would be great and somewhere else. I think an eventual moderate risk came out (a big one) and there were even 5% TOR probs I think which got into SNE. Don't have clear visions or memory of all the details though. But this is always a great sign we're getting closer

Whatever happens though, this period has been well discussed since really the beginning of the month. Obviously it's going to suck big time if this doesn't pan out but it goes to show that 1) Periods of potential can be sniffed out beyond 10 days 2) How the pieces move and evolve ultimately play a significant role in the outcome

Stranger things have happened and it seems like a long shot but we'll need an awful lot to work in our favor. That was definitely a weird evolution on the 0z euro as dendrite mentioned. Still have today and even tomorrow we really sort this out though we'd probably want to see big jumps on all guidance today.

That's a great point that need to be added on. If I was expecting 20-25" but only got 10"...well the tone may be different

That mindset is so foolish...no wonder some are always disappointed, too worried about what somewhat else got instead of enjoying what they got.