weatherwiz

You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.

100% agreed.

There as actually a presentation similar to this at the Tri-State Weather conference this past Saturday.

Maybe a SYR special today? Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s.

You know you've entered Fall (or Spring) when MAV/MET differ by 7-8-9°F or more on forecast high temps (particularly when a warmer than average llvl airmass is in place).

That is a very robust shortwave digging into the region with some healthy moisture in place and rather steep lapse rates. Wasn't looking at LES in this case...just more elevated/terrain enhancement.

Would not be surprised to see multiple inches of accumulating snow for ski areas on Saturday and maybe even grassy accumulation accumulations lower elevations of NNE. Wonder if the Tug hill could pull off several-plus inches

Ughhhhh I knew this was bound to happen. They’re just getting bigger and deadlier here. Adapting to our climate and just relocating from other areas. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/venomous-spider-species-documented-in-connecticut-for-the-first-time/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_WTNH_News_8&fbclid=IwZnRzaAUzh-hleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBwZG9mBWZkaWQWUP0fgIBV4YT5gAujHlk__9yP03ilPXNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR46RL7csvZP_EevojJ70Jc8_yzDkguN2GZP_lfF_0i9ITCVH690hW3pJK0g_w_aem_afEitbdedFZMbV3_6lCdUA

I'll never understand how cold could be "fake"

It probably came on 3-4 times overnight and about 3-4 times in the 3 hours I've been up. I don't think its very well insulated. It gets crazy hot in here once it gets above like 65-70, especially the bedroom and super chilly in the winter. Also, doesn't help that the ACs are still in the living room/bedroom window. I think both have massive spider webs and spiders attached to them so I can't take them out until they go

Frosty morning, heat kicking on all night. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Upcoming stretch looks about as perfect as can be for Fall. We'll definitely get some chilly nights with HPs rolling through but temperatures will rebound nicely during the day. There certainly could be some unseasonably warm days mixed in if we aren't wedged but a very Fall like pattern...mild days with cool-to-chilly overnights.

Looks like the retirement of the NAMs/HRRR/HREF/etc and operational implementation of the RRFS has been delayed again, this time to November 3. An error was found within one of the ensemble members of the RRFS and was corrected, but I guess per policy they have to wait 30-days

NAM a bit more aggressive with the potential for showers tomorrow night, particularly along and north of the Pike

Sure did. Was standing outside with the dog when I took that picture and it felt like deep autumn and the sky had that late fall/winter crisp clear look. When I was outside last night and the wind was blowing I was thinking to myself, "I am not looking forward to any Arctic snaps where its 10F out with wind whipping"

What an early morning sky today. The moon instantly caught my eye with the “star” basically adjacent to the moon. I did not initially realize it was Jupiter, thought maybe Mars. You can also sort of see the un-illuminated part of the moon as the brightness of Jupiter is just enough to give an outline (though it’s obviously exaggerated in the photo)

Maybe even some risk for some localized damaging wind gusts tomorrow

Here's the general...AWT

Where are people getting these sunny forecasts from these past few days? Was always going to be clouds rolling in

Kind of surprised SPC doesn't have general thunder extending into the Northeast tomorrow

Just noticed PSU now has bufkit data for RRFS.

Since Thursday is October I'll just put this here Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM

Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM