weatherwiz

This was an absolutely confidence boost in taking AI more seriously in the medium range. Now, we can't assume that AI is just going to nail the medium range but the value this could provide is huge. Inside of 48 hours we just continue relying on the mesos and.

We'll see what happens. This is one of the more nail biting nowcast situations in a while. Hopefully that area of 700 fronto along Long Island is some indication of where we'll get better banding developing later and hints at stuff blossoming farther north and west. 850mb fronto is getting there so we should at least continue seeing precip blossom across the region later on

Yeah any warning amounts would probably be too isolated or localized to really justify a warning.

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible.

can see cloud tops cooling down near the Delmarva

12z NAM looks solid for BOS this evening

If referring to bufkit, both are separate. If you’re using cobb11 it’s deriving the snow ratios from 5 or 6 products. If you choose maxT in profile you can adjust the max temp to compute different ratios

Coating down so far

Noticed the same thing driving home earlier

Just going through some bufkit soundings but here is New Haven, CT 1. You can see the deep DGZ but also look at the time period around that AM stuff...ratios up around 20:1 with some strong lift then again during the evening. If this morning band verifies snow rates could approach 1-1.5" per hour

Anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM bufkit.

I'd feel confident about that should this occur. Starting to think it is gaining more legs though

Morning stuff could really overperform somewhere

northern CT. You can see how deep the DGZ is as Will alluded too. Pretty good lift here too. Can't wait to see this on bufkit

What a sunset

Probably won’t see a plow at all

Beautiful, looks like winter again.

4” here!!!

Lmao are those two ever in sync? They’re like a toxic Hollywood couple

yup...sucks when you get this convective chasing crap because there is no way to know for sure if its accurate until the event is unfolding. It also gets going just a tad too late...you can see if trying to recover and build NW at hr 30-33

outside of interior NE MA those rates are putrid. that's salt shaker snow

chasing convection again?

Anyways at least this looks like a good solid regionwide 3-6" event. Don't want anyone interpret the discussion of the mid-levels meaning this is cooked lol. Just moreso trying to gauge what's the upper ceiling we're working with here

That's the direction I am leaning towards. I've spent the past hour just looking at anything and everything relating to storm evolution and it's really difficult to come to a conclusion that the mid-levels develop in time to really produce. If it does happen...this is going to be a big overperformer and I would still expect that to be within the CT River Valley...but just not seeing enough to bite and expect it will happen.