weatherwiz

Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant severe weather event either late Tuesday afternoon or evening/overnight across northern New England. Daytime temperatures are expected to climb well into the 80's within the region and probably some spot 90's with dewpoints pushing into the lower 70's. This combination under the presence of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by mid-level lapse rates on order of 7+ C/Km will result in an extremely unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values pushing or exceeding 3000 J/KG. While the timing of this event may be more evening or overnight, instability values will drop off due to the loss of daytime heating, however, MLCAPE values should remain around 1500+ J/KG. With the region on the northern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge that is centered over the northern Plains, strong flow will overspread the region with 60-70+ knots of 500mb flow, aiding in the potential for bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots. In addition, a strong surface cold front will be diving south. The combination of instability and wind shear ahead of the approaching cold front will set the stage for the development of one, or perhaps multiple clusters or lines of thunderstorms across Quebec which propagate across northern New England late in the day or during the evening or overnight. Given the ingredients, the potential exists for a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts (perhaps some significant wind gusts), and if any supercells develop there will be a risk for large-to-very large hail, and even the risk for a few tornadoes (though this is largely dependent on storm mode and whether surface winds can remain more southerly ahead of the front.

No trees left in the Greens Mountain's?

Wagons north for this potential

more like way, way north

We are going to get skunked next week ughhhhhh

yup...just caught that.

Same here. Watch it be so anomalous that it has the complete opposite effect of what we'd think and it results in historic cold/snow across the country

Gotta say...definitely impressive how the guidance for such an anomalous event have not backed down. About to have another impressive WWB too http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif EDIT: this is July not June

I don't think storm chances were ever particularly high for today. Always seemed more isolated

I still don't understand how ideas can be drawn on how a summer will be based on the concept of what *may* occur in terms of an ENSO event which is in the stages of development.

meh just a little warm

At WestConn we still had to use PowerPoint for our broadcasts because the school refused to pay for WSI and didn't care how important it was. I'm pretty sure they still use PowerPoint to this day.

It's going to be too much to ask to get something to time right in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, isn't it?

I can certainly imagine lol. Its interesting how the human brain works

Wish this concept was more easily grasp by the population

the headlines with severe weather are a joke. "Tens of thousands under the gun for severe weather". CNN and NY Post loves to do this. Then you have clowns like Ryan Hall and Max Velocity who have to use that headline and that have their stupid looking face making a stupid reaction in their thumbnails.

I really hope we can time an EML plume with the front next week but not looking particularly favorable right now...but we are a bit far out.

Made a comment on this a while back but isn't this sort of a product of the declining +AMO as we transition to a -NAO regime?

12z HRRR yesterday did a nice job with the idea today and then NAM followed suite. Been steady all day but has been heaviest over the past hour. Breeze picking up too

Concern for some localized flash flooding, sure. But some of what was going around made it seem like flooding was going to be a large or widespread issue. But this is becoming a big problem in forecasting when it comes to some of these products. Folks see ensembles going crazy and all of a sudden alarm bells are sounded without fully divulging into all the data and then you have these products like extreme forecast index which further adds to the alarm bells. Yes, sure when you have these products showing something extreme there definitely should be concern, but they can't just be taken at face value nor should they be. Same goes with severe weather and winter weather...even in the west, a ton of events will get all hyped up with talk of tornado outbreaks and strong tornadoes because supercell composite parameter/significant tornado parameter forecasts are "through the roof" then the event comes and there are barely any tornadoes, let alone strong ones. And of course winter...D12 snowmaps show widespread 20-30" storms and here goes the social media hype for a massive blizzard. While sure there were guidance throwing around widespread 4-8" rain amounts and isolated higher totals, it was pretty clear that was not going to be the case and any amounts that excessive would most likely be extremely isolated or confined closer to where the warm front would be and it was also clear these totals would be spread out over a longer duration. Overall flood risk appeared low. Like I said earlier, watch in a few weeks we will get a setup with produces flooding and there will be little talk of the potential. For whatever reason it seems anytime talk of flooding is possible it never pans out, then we get setups where there is little mention of flooding possibility and you have problems all over.

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?). One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming

Were there even any major flood reports or any flooding reports outside of the typical low street or poor drainage? All that was going around on social media you would have thought disaster was coming lol. Meanwhile in 3 weeks we'll get a setup with no flood watches, no WPC area for flooding, and half of the Merritt and stretches of 95 from CT into RI/SE MA will be underwater with cars trapped

Have to head to the store later and grab a few things...definitely switching from shorts to jeans. going to suck

Yeah but nothing near the widespread 4-6/5-7" that was floating around on some of the guidance. And the overall flooding risk seems relatively low...I don't think the moderate was necessarily needed by the WPC. This was a long drawn out steady rain (and kind of in chunks). Will be worse off to our south. Definitely a much needed rain for sure but overall this was below a much more concerning flooding risk

Noah almost cancelled his plans in Heaven to come down and build an arc when he saw all these crazy ensembles and high extreme forecasts index. Good thing he decided not too