This weekend is likely more just showers versus a widespread steadier rain. There will probably be a narrow axis, however, where there is some steadier/heavier rain but that will likely be confined to somewhere in NNE.
In Enfield at my nieces for a cookout. Absolutely awful out. Wish when ours have held onto the weather we had in the morning. Wasn’t great but better than this
Tuesday and Wednesday should be quite warm next week (though obviously nothing like this week). Wednesday though we'll see a front moving south so there will be a gradient within the region so northern areas may only be a one day ordeal.
There were a few of us who mentioned we would see a flip to significantly warmer weather (even some heat and humidity) moving into the second half of May
HRRR has been all over the place so can probably toss that. Interesting how the 3km NAM at 12z was very similar evolution to the HRRR yesterday. There is good convergence along the shoreline so I would not be surprised if things took off a bit as the front nears
was unsure if they would go with the watch or not. I could certainly see so a bit southwest but might be a stretch for southern CT...although no choice but to throw entire counties under the watch.
you might be in a good spot in Fairfield. Looks like greatest potential is right along the shoreline. Most of the action though may end up crossing the Sound
The 7z run knocked BDL down to 92 for today but gotta say...the NBM did quite well for yesterday's temps.
In the case of today, the only thing I can think of is there was a good bit of guidance perhaps slower with the cold front. I want to read more into what changes were made with NBMv5...I briefly did this a few weeks ago and there was mention this version was even more accurate with temperatures. I think the NBM may have a more "accurate" mixing capability versus traditional MOS and also isn't as scaled or tied into climo.