weatherwiz

Bahama blues here. Great looking satellite out ahead of this stuff. Have to wonder though if that mid-level dry air moving in will really hurt, despite the building lower CAPE

Have to watch for rapid destabilization out ahead of the line given the sky conditions and rapid jump in temps...may have a similar affect to parcel acceleration that you would see with steeper lapse rates because the air is becoming less buoyant rapidly.

You gotta be careful with TVS in setups like this with very strong shear. I don't think Radarscope does this but these are probably elevated TVS signatures...so there are probably 2 or 3 bins (forget the minimum requirement...think its 3) on successive scans meeting shear threshold and above a certain distance above the ground.

Nothing is really standing out in terms of rotation. OF course much of this stuff is in some awful radar coverage but going up a tilt or so, nothing is really impressive so a sign anything llvl is probably minor as well. Don't think there is enough instability right now to really get something spinning. May actually have to watch into Berkshire County...some higher sfc vorticity there per mesoanalysis with increasing 3km Cape.

cells firing east or the Berk as the airmass begins to destabilize and MLCIN has eroded.

Kind of shocked we haven't seen a downstream MCD or watch extension yet

You get enough MLCAPE or 3km CAPE in this and you could be looking at the potential for a stronger tornado

The valley probably does but that is going to be the product of mid-level air advecting in which is also going to negatively impact potential for thunderstorm development down this way as well. However, its been noteworthy that the CAMs have become more aggressive and have remained consistent with developing convection, even down into CT later this afternoon. We'll see...too much mid-level dry air can really screw things...not too mention its rather warm aloft too

That line is looking pretty good with some very noteworthy rotation. Erode the MLCIN out ahead of it and boost up those values and this may be an interesting afternoon in NNE. Looks good for some clearing out ahead of the line too

We'll see what can happen south of Rt. 2 and especially getting towards the Pike and farther south...mid-level dry air going to be a big concern and tough to overcome. With this said, that would keep anything that develops more isolated so if something pops and can get a robust enough updraft, it will have an environment all to its self. Will be tough this...instability won't be sufficient I don't think

yes

There is a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates in NY advecting northeast. This may weaken but something to watch to lead to some instability enhancement for eastern NY into VT/NH

Quite the storm down in Louisiana.

Unfortunately unable to chase tomorrow.

mesos are definitely becoming a bit more intriguing with tomorrow

This is just round 1. Round two is going to ignite within this area and we'll see a line of supercells quickly fire up in the next 2-4 hours. Big instability building within this area and will build downstream as the clouds break and temps skyrocket with steepening lapse rates

I don't think so. The idea of multiple rounds has been modeled quite well with this round expected to be quite intense as well. This will certainly impact things on a mesoscale level and may result in some shifts in best potential for later as this could influence how far north the warm front gets. But you can see it will (well already kind of is) rapidly intensity from east-central Missouri into south-central Illinois and that air will lift north as the warm front does. If anything, this MCS may lead to further enhancement for some localized strong/violent tornado potential with residual outflow boundaries and enhanced local vorticity

Definitely going to need those temps and even if we can push the dews into the lower 70's. LFC looks pretty high tomorrow so definitely going to need extra support

12z HRRR a bit more intrigued with tomorrow

I don't think there has been a situation ever involving a nearby boundary and GFS based products or NBM based products actually throw out numbers suggestive of not warm sectoring. This is going to be a big problem when its basically just NBM for a text based product

But at least when the cap breaks you are rapidly transporting moisture into the troposphere!

drier air aloft also looks to be an issue down this way

MAV 76 for BOS tomorrow MET 66 (and thats the evening) NBM 81 must be a front or something nearby tomorrow

I wonder if we see a small high risk on the new D1. That is a wild environment that will be evolving today. That is a very elongated line of supercells which develop ahead of the cold front later and not to mention supercells which develop along and ride parallel to the front and will be ingesting destabilizing air from the south.