weatherwiz

even mesos are a mess for us, yes but I am looking at more of the region as a whole (including just to our south. I would have to think any north guidance with the heavier axis is wrong but we do get some increasing diffluence aloft late with PVA so we may see showers blossom (just not heavy rain...maybe coast gets heavier rain).

What an absolutely colossal joke guidance is with tomorrow night. Who event wants to forecast precipitation events 4-5 days out? It's been absolutely terrible. I can only wonder how many storms we'll see on guidance 4-5 days out and the snow maps of 8...10...12+ inches start flying out only for significant reductions inside of 48 hours. Or who knows...maybe we'll get some in the other direction where it looks like crap and then we're forecasting 6-10" all of a sudden

There was alot of ice in my freezer this morning too, more than usual. that's because I turned on the ice maker

Who uses an umbrella when its windy?

6th (I think) or 20th work for me. Let's make this happen

Can't even get good agreement on models on how tomorrow/tomorrow night evolve

The sky is so clear. Couldn’t get this for the big aurora show???

If we keep pushing back I can have fun with the running joke... pattern is changing by December 1...no December 10...christmas...New Years, definitely mid January, Feb will be big...hello spring! This is a great visual for context, thanks! MJO could be a factor too...just looked at euro/gfs forecasts. Both have a robust wave propagating into 6/7. Obviously MJO forecasting is extremely iffy at this range, but when you look at the GFS/euro evolution around/shortly after Thanksgiving...its a pretty damn close match to what you would expect for a transition from 6 to 7. So if the MJO signal ends up being overplayed...you may see significant changes to guidance for this period.

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December?

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly

We definitely want to watch the progression of the progression of the stratosphere too. The good news is, we already have a warming event ongoing and across the Canadian Arctic If you were to follow this progression on Dr. Lawrence's site, its a longer duration event too with the peak occurring somewhere in the 300 hr time frame This is important (when the peak occurs) because this would likely result in a PV split, which begins to occur towards the end of the run Getting a PV split will be critical because the main PV looks like it could end up over Europe, but if it splits, then we could get PV displacement onto our side of the hemisphere.

Let's really, really hope the PAC plays out and evolves like that. But even if it doesn't...if it can at least evolve to a degree where we can continue to further develop that later in the month...that would be a big change. I also wouldn't mind maintaining a stronger SE ridge...coastal peeps may not want that and of course that could be playing Russian Roulette but that would at least help with an active storm track with ejecting shortwaves from the southwest...then we just hope for a perfect trough axis to our west.

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging).

Ahhh good thought, I do still have that in there. I also need to remember to shut off the valve to the outside water faucet.

Had heavy frost on the car this morning. Apparently I guess my windshield washer fluid was empty and my scrapper broke, so I had to waste 15-20 minutes waiting for window to defrost so I could drive

2003 was so much fun. That was my freshman year of high school and during lunch I'd be outside playing frisbee in the snow

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is.

catching up on late afternoon. What is the definition people are using when it comes to wire-to-wire. I thought it was referring to getting slammed in back-to-back winters, but is that not the case?

The HRRR I think is out to lunch. I was curious to see what the soundings looked like in the vicinity of the precip on the HRRR...did see some moistening of the profile but there is a quite a bit of dry air to overcome and being on the northern fringes of the precip shield...don't think that's going to do it. But maybe portions of Fairfield county are clipped with some better lvl moisture

Gotcha...yes. We definitely need to see this

The inconsistency may not be a terrible thing though. Sometimes inconsistency can be a signal that things are being shaken up and will change. But I think if we are to see things change it will be more towards mid December than early. I haven't paid attention much to the stratosphere stuff lately but what brooklynwx posted earlier was nice to see. Stratospheric warmings or a coupled stratosphere don't necessarily mean anything for us (this could just as easily have a greater impact on Europe depending on configuration/evolution) but getting something like this earlier in the season could be hue for us. I feel like some of the more recent, stronger episodes happened second half of winter, so by the time the lower troposphere felt the impacts, it was too late for us

That missing snowfall data pisses me off. I always forget what happened...it had to do with the switching from something to something but 1995-1996 was like 115.2" and I'm pretty sure 2002-20023 was over 80" or maybe 90" and I think is second highest on record for BDL..

maybe it was 03-04 and 04-05...or maybe it was like 02-03 good, 03-04 sucked, then 04-05 was great. Can't find my notebook. Guess I'll look online but the handling of the snowfall and tornado databases frustrates the hell out of me.

Wasn't there a back-to-back period there where BDL put up like 90" then 70"+?