weatherwiz

This isn't bad for D3. I'm not huge into these products but assessing everything you can see the potential is there and when you supplement with this product its certainly a real signal.

Saturday could be a pretty good widespread day of storms with some strong-to-severe storms

Won't have any time to dig into winter analysis but I really am curious how this winter will go. I do find it extremely hard to believe though this will not be a well above average for much of the U.S. With how expansive the 28-30C waters are (and still growing) expansive ridging is going to be too dominant. Hard to see anything really combating that. Probably be dealing with a raging jet too...but with that, maybe we get something and we benefit in a big way from a powerful jet

Instability pretty large tomorrow. Shear certainly doesn't look great so probably looking at some pulse type. Will probably see a ton of lightning in any storms and a localized FF risk where storms occur.

Monday could be a decent severe setup too. Going to be an active several days in the convective department. Certainly going to start seeing some increased flood concerns too. Time to toss those drought maps

I am surprised we don't have at least a marginal risk for Friday

got a marginal just off to the west with the new D3

#4 seems like it was already perfect as is.

May even have some decent severe potential next week

I'm actually not so sure we really see dews mix down during the day on Thursday. Well...I should say, not mix below 70. Probably would start the day 73-76F but mix down to like 71-72

This month will most likely finish above average, especially if the signals for the second half of the month verify

May have to watch out for a few (rather isolated) strong storms across western MA/CT late Thursday afternoon

I enjoy his posts and discussions. Extremely knowledgeable and doesn't try to hype things up...just tells it exactly the way it is.

Almost looks like a similar transition to the pattern we had a few weeks back. That is some ridge being modeled second half of the month...that is a massive area of 600+ dm heights on the GFS.

Much of next week is going to be quite warm with high dewpoints, at least until the front moves through sometime second half of the week. We definitely encounter a period of around average temperatures with low humidity, should that western ridge become as stout as some guidance suggests and we end up with a NW flow. We'll see how long that holds though...may get one more run at big heat/humidity following that period.

Thought this even looked good last Thursday or maybe it was Friday. Front is actually moving more quickly than I thought but when you're ripping a 40+ knot LLJ ahead of a slow moving front with sfc dews >70 and 850 dews into the 60's, PWATS > 2" and a totally saturated profile...great way to great prolific rain rates and over a large area.

AWT

Some knew

This rain is insane. Can’t even take a shower this morning because there’s been thunder and lightning. Have to go to a doctors appointment soon too

The big difference in this versus the previous setups is this rain isn't spread out over a long duration. This will be the type of stuff that produces 2-4" in 1-2 hours versus several-plus hours.

Rainfall rates will be quite impressive tomorrow and the initial round of rain is going to be on the widespread side and then we see what we can develop during the day in terms of convection. You have a stout southerly LLJ into the region with 8850 dewpoints +16 to +17C and PWAT values between 2.20" and 2.40". There is no capping and you have the LFC right about the same height as the LCL. The radar is going to be lit up with rain and continuous development of downpours and embedded thunder throughout the day and this will train across a large area.

I'm shocked there aren't flash flood watches out or flood watches. I bet tonight into tomorrow evening has more reports of flooding than the past few setups combined.

Not a bad looking core. Surprised at least no SPS on it

Thundering here!!!!

I'd actually be shocked if the ICON wasn't