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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon
  2. weatherwiz
    That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that
  3. weatherwiz
    I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so.
  4. weatherwiz
    This is going to be a weird one tonight. Outside of parts of New Hampshire and Maine I don't think we're going to be seeing anything uniform tonight. I could see many not even picking up 1/2" of snow while some are lucky and puke out 2-3". Lots of convective elements within this and pockets of stronger lift. For those with snow, the ratios are going to struggle too outside of those pockets of stronger lift so I don't think this is one where we "ratio our way" to 3".
  5. weatherwiz
    Let's shoot for 5 But lets say this convective band is true, I don't think its all snow...I think its a mixture of snow and sleet or maybe more sleet than snow.
  6. weatherwiz
    I believe models are known to actually struggle with precipitation initialization so it's probably not something to put alot into
  7. weatherwiz
    I've been pretty intrigued by that...it's been a signal on mesos for a bit now. Even the awful RRFS has had it
  8. weatherwiz
    HRRR hints at some lighting possible with that convective stuff moving across southern CT tonight
  9. weatherwiz
    80 days to go!!!
  10. weatherwiz
    The Sierra's are certainly going to be making up their snow deficit
  11. weatherwiz
    Kind of wondering if there will be two favored areas for the best lift. One up your way and a second area into southwest CT...maybe even along the CT shoreline
  12. weatherwiz
    The second half of this month is going to be quite interesting. The pattern is going to become much more active, in fact, it's already making strides in that direction. Details TBD and folks can muster that up to fit their backyard mold but it certainly will not be a dull second half of the month
  13. weatherwiz
    2.5"
  14. weatherwiz
    I was hoping we could get 1-1.5" so certainly was a nice little surprise in that regard.
  15. weatherwiz
    Pretty wild...I always thought it would be like early afternoon when they got really crushed. Still looks like there is a bit to go before this is even maximized there. The totals are going to be absurd. Someone is going to pull off 20+" though once wind whips up good luck measuring
  16. weatherwiz
    yeah may end up being the case.
  17. weatherwiz
    Still hoping we see some thunder/lightning there
  18. weatherwiz
    Wind starting to pickup a bit here
  19. weatherwiz
    I think it’s pretty freaking awesome how guidance not only picked up on this localized max but was very consistent.
  20. weatherwiz
    2.5”!
  21. weatherwiz
    I think the parade reference is should the Patriots win the Super Bowl. But also saying it's actually not terrible weather for a parade (compared to what we've had anyways).
  22. weatherwiz
    Can't even get TTs like that during the summer
  23. weatherwiz
    Someone in Gloucester or Rockport is going to get lucky enough and probably pull off 8-9". Someone is going to be pulling off 3-4" per hour rates for a time with thunder/lightning going on. This signal has just been way too consistent and across multiple forecast models.
  24. weatherwiz
    GFS bufkit is nuts for Boston. Definitely supports warning criteria potential
  25. weatherwiz
    That is pretty insane to see. That would probably be a legit thunderstorm with 4" per hour rates lol. Maybe some waterspouts too
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