weatherwiz

yeah has a nice little axis of precipitation from E CT on east

HRRR remains quite aggressive for tomorrow night into Sat

Let's get all of the cold and snow now and through the first half of February then we can roll right into a good ole Morch

Almost seems like each clipper subsequently enhances potential for the following one

Progress

Probably going to be the good ole compromise where we see the Euro probability amplify a bit more, but we see the GFS back up on any phase or interaction. That is going to be difficult to do within the flow but this could still dig a bit more

Still might happen. NE MA could be in game between 3-6 PM for some intense squalls

Impressive snow squalls for sure!

I don't think comparing model performance for the last storm has any bearing on what to expect from guidance on this storm. They are two totally different setups. In retrospect though, all guidance really struggled with the last storm. Every model, every run, was yielding a totally different look and evolution of the 500mb energy but given that regime that should be expected. Also, when it comes to potential phasing events its all about timing. The slightest difference in the timing of the phase can mean a SLP of weak sauce with nothing or a full fledged nor'easter. Even on the Euro there is more room for the northern stream to dig given the jet streak associated with the trough but subtle differences can result in big changes to the sfc output.

Euro doesn't look bad IMO.

Even on the lesser guidance...the signal for a 70-80 knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough as the trough is getting ready to swing across New England...pretty good signal for at least some degree of amplification.

As discussed the other day, these are the ones to watch for. When you have fast flow with an abundance of shortwaves...too many people get all caught up looking for D10 HECSs and miss these potential systems.

I don't think the GFS should be totally tossed. Its idea of amplifying that northern stream has validity. Whether there is some phasing is another story but I'd watch this

GFS much sharper with that northern stream s/w sunday night

yeah IDK...I don't get it...there is so much out there you see stated that is either incorrectly stated or just flat out wrong.

Actually...the only time sun angle matters is...summer. Think about going to the southern latitudes during the summer. It could be be just as hot/humid here but it feels WAY more intense at the southern latitudes with the sun directly over your noggin. When my girlfriend and I were on our cruise to Bimini in July...that was absolutely intense stuff. The nearly overhead sun angle is a killer

The sun angle and warm ground stuff is the biggest nonsense out there. It is only a factor when you're talking abut light rates and when intensity is too light to readily accumulate. When they go from 85 to 26 (in the same day!!) in Denver does the warm ground stop them from getting a foot? No, it does not

I wonder if the GFS is a bit more aggressive Sunday night because its a tad sharper with that shortwave and perhaps acquiring a bit more in the way of moisture off the Lakes?

Maybe for Australia. JB gets excited about whatever will get him more clicks and subscriptions. JB could craft a post about how a family skunks spraying a dog in Colorado will translate to EC cyclogenesis and he'll gain 300 followers and re-posted information all over social media

Looking quickly, after peaking mid-November, the SOI seems to have been on a rapid decline but this could also be due to local weather patterns and system influencing Tahiti and Australia. But let's say that is not the case...based on SSTA trends, an argument could be made the La Nina has already peaked (at least for this season). But this is just a very quick, basic assessment. but not sure what point he was trying to make posting a daily contribution to the SOI value

I'll have to go look at the latest SOI now but something about what he posted doesn't make sense. A prolonged period of negative SOI would typically coincide with EL Nino conditions while a prolonged period of positive SOI coincides with La Nina. A tanking SOI would imply either going towards EL Nino or an ongoing EL Nino event would be strengthening.

13th I have something in Stamford, CT at 6:00 PM so wouldn't be able to make it

Correct, southern Oscillation Index. It's a measure of the SLP pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia which can in turn be used in conjunction with ENSO as one metric to assess how coupled the atmosphere/ocean are. SOI alone doesn't hold significance or weight on the pattern (at least in terms of influences here) but it can enhance the effects an ENSO event will have on the pattern across the PAC which could have some downstream bearing here. SOI (along with Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI)) can provide a more accurate assessment of the true strength of an ENSO event versus ONI alone.

I'd be careful just using a daily SOI value to assess. Not saying it isn't tanking (haven't looked lately) but those daily values can be heavily influenced by local weather phenomena and weather systems.

Mid-month is very interesting. As tip alluded to yesterday, that 500mb features lots of shortwaves digging and amplifying slightly south of Long Island...you keep feeding a constant supply of shortwaves and something is bound to give. I will say though and I know this leads to debate, but I would feel MUCH better if we had some southern stream involvement. If there was some southern stream feeding energy we could probably say the odds are almost certain something would happen.