weatherwiz

The wave was designated with medium probabilities but was lowered as it never really became organized and is moving into a more hostile environment. It's listed with 0% because the 8 AM update lowered it from either 10% to 0%...that's why it was still listed.

Both updates from Colorado State and NOAA a few weeks back maintained an above average season and didn't decrease anything from their previous update. I was a little shocked by this but there must be confidence from the experts the second half will get busy. Caribbean and Gulf could really be something to watch. Waters there (as per what's been the norm lately) are running above average and have largely been undisturbed and we're still a bit away from peak climo for SSTs. We'll also start getting more fronts to progress into the deep South (and stronger fronts).

That's pretty wild the GFS has nothing in its run...obviously some waves here and there but the overall background is not not conducive for anything outside of some brief development. Have to see if things begin to change more quickly as we near peak.

Must have been auto correct lol. Must have typed wrong, didn’t check, and it autocorrected

More like past the first round lol

I hope they did a field sobriety and drug test on the pilot

I have not seen many yellow jackets over the last few years. Went to Red Robin for dinner and sat outside and had one fly around our food but that legit may have been the first I saw this year

Just had a big spider race across the bed…came out from under the blankets. That sucker was flying. Now I’m all freaked out there might be another. Not even sure what kind it was…didn’t have my glasses on. Hoping it wasn’t a wolf spider

What the heck is this thing? It’s on my wall. I hope that isn’t a tick. It’s not a spider, not enough legs.

Our summers are more deep than our winter snow packs now

80/45 is summer 80/53 is summer 80/62 is summer 80/68 is summer 80/75 is summer 93/77 is beautiful summer

I'm super pumped for this severe weather class. Skew T's, Log P's (don't know much about those though), thermodynamic review (prob screwed there). shear, hodographs, soundings, and so much more and final project is a case study

Based off this morning, I am inclined to believe the track here on out will be towards the eastern edge of the cone. It took longer than I expected (mainly because the storm slowed to a crawl) but we're finally seeing the rapid shift north and northeast.

Next week will be a mid-to-late beautiful sky (assuming no wildfire smoke). Looks like we swing some cold pools through. So we could have a scenario of blue sky to begin the day with crisp and bubbly TCUs developing by mid-to-late morning. Moisture is limited but probably see isolated showers/thunder (particularly high terrain).

I also wonder if environment in the wake of Erin will be a bit too hostile for the follow up wave? Or at the very least wind shear may be unfavorable...GFS doesn't look great in this department.

Yeah we'll have to see if Erin either tries to re-strengthen some as it moves north or at least re-develops a better structure. But these two factors, particularly the later could have big impacts on what transpires across the outer banks of NC and even Nantucket. In addition to the shear and dry air you have to wonder if just sitting over the same area for so long is playing a factor too. It's even difficult to pinpoint the centers exact movement too. Almost looks like it could be more of a NNW heading but the center is also kind of jumping around a bit.

I see they upgraded to TS warnings for Cape Hatteras but the structure of Erin is getting destroyed and everything is essentially into the eastern quadrant of the storm. I know the wind field will expand and reconfigure as Erin grows but its entirely possible they barely get to TS force winds even to Cape Hatteras.

Yeah a nice swath from within NJ across Long Island. Maybe even potential for a brief tornado across southern NJ and some waterspouts off the coast.

I can see what he means though for down into NJ (especially southern NJ). It will be more unstable down that way and better chance for convection. There certainly could be some localized significant flash flooding in those parts tomorrow, especially if any cells train over a specific area. For us though I think flooding potential is very low.

I am back and forth on potential for any flash flooding. I am not sure if we will really see heavy enough rainfall rates. Doesn't look like there will be much in the way of convective rainfall. Thinking mostly just a steady enough rainfall to where drainage systems aren't being overfilled and the ground should absorb.

Erin taking a beating today

Crazy we're only a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season and about a month away from pre-season hockey. Where did my summer go

The clouds are crying over the lack of dews

Outside with shorts and short sleeved shirt…not too bad actually. The coolness isn’t bothering like I thought it would. But I do miss 95/73

I think the NAM has validity. Drawing some moisture northwards from Erin and you have alright dynamics and a warm front approaching aloft. Lift isn't too bad. There could be a swath of a nice steady rain...nothing too crazy, perfect for the ground actually to soak it in.