weatherwiz

Funny you post this because I did dap into the charts to see what the forecasts were for the NAO/PNA. I thought that was noteworthy, but like you said ens means were not as representative as what you would expect to see in terms of pattern across the country. One thing came to mind: As you know, the placement and structure of the anomaly centers are more important than just the chart. Here is the 12z GEFS 6-10 day mean. Excuse my terrible drawing skills but I'll try to explain what I'm getting at: 1. I wonder if the chart is being skewed by the highly anomalous High pressure center northwest of the Aleutians and the trough jut north of Hawaii. I believe this is the far western edge of the PNA domain but this could be providing enough weight to make the chart "quite negative". 2. Getting into the placement of the anomaly centers, you can see we might not be far off from significantly warmer temperatures. If the high center was more so over the Aleutians or maybe just south and the trough centered over Hawaii, would that maybe act to flatten the ridge there across the PAC NW and open the door to connect the trough over the central states with the western Arctic domain or at least tug the trough west? With the mean trough in the West as opposed to the central we may be able connect the ridge off the coast and bring that west

That's what I'm thinking. We're going to get our nice days, and some of us will get more than others and that's just the nature of our region's climo but I think we have at least another few weeks before we can say that type of weather becomes more consistent. I would not be surprised if the switch flipped in the flash of an eye. I mean that's what kinda of seems to happen here anyways but we'll probably go from 50's and 60's (with our days of 70's) right to 80's and torch spots hitting 90 with humidity.

perhaps end of May sure...but I was focused on the next few weeks really.

As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change.

Yup...we had a little back and forth going about the warm front and how far into the region it would push. I wish I spent more time looking into it but had alot of other stuff going on. Everything looked pretty impressive but I just harped too much on drier air aloft. But looking back I should have known that would be a non issue given the strength of the forcing approaching and increasing 850 theta e I think it was. it's not too often either we get supercellular storms riding along warm front boundaries in these parts. Even with some of the stableness around, I believe much of the storm inflow was coming from within the stronger warm sector.

Let's hope we can keep the EML's coming.

The only flashes I've seen are the flashes of brilliance from Swayman. Not sure why I haven't seen any flashes...but there is a ton of thunder.

3rd round of thunder today!

Another day another tornado emergency. Nasty tornado well south of Nashville. Debris up to looks like 10-15K

Great call today! I poo-pooed and got poo-pooed on

Another thunderstorm passing by.

I keep going back and forth at it. My initial reaction was straight line too because there was nothing glaring showing rotation (you had the green/red next to each other but they were moving conjointly) but it looked like there was a brief scan with a small area of rotation and a drop in CC. But it's probably nothing.

might have been a very brief TDS

yup same here. It was super weird. Per radar, I was under red echos...like smack in the middle and zero was going on at the ground. Was probably under those echos for a solid 5 min before anything happened lol

nahhh my girlfriend setup spider traps down there

ughhh lasted for 2 seconds

PEA SIZED HAIL!!!!

Saw a bright flash of lightning and right away it started to rain

I am under red echos but nothing happening...

super eerie here. may head to the basement

1.5'' hail marker over Westfield

let's go baby!!

quite a bit of thunder here. crazy...blue sky looking east and off to the west is the clouds with the storms.

Just erupted into blue sky in Springfield with severe to my west. GOING TO BE POUNDED!!!!!!

decent rotation over Blanford