weatherwiz

Well with how wet the ground is and how damaged the trees are, we're primed to level forests in 6-7 weeks when we hopefully get a derecho to blow through. They better prepare the power grid now.

can't upload without power or internet

For sure.

Agreed. That's why these snow maps and depth maps whatever need to be used with extreme caution. Sure they may "nail" some areas and maybe capture cutoffs and gradients but on the whole picture...they suck. Mid-level structure, evolution, lift, etc are all extremely critical at the end of the day and the snow maps don't factor that stuff in. I am curious what PWM is at right now. I know yesterday both NAM/GFS bufkit were yielding over a foot of snow at PWM using cobb. Actually even using max temp in profile wasn't too far off from cobb.

Do any vendors use cobb technique for displaying snowfall accumulations or is 10:1 and Kuchera the methods of choice?

what a f'ing disaster driving down 91 this morning. Thankfully I use maps so I was aware of the accidents and did detours but people are freaking ridiculous. Driving 80 mph and swerving in/out of lanes.

will you be pulling the trigger on any blizzard warnings?

yeah it shuts things off pretty quickly with the best lift north

Looking pretty good for a several hour period of 1''+ rates in Portland. This can sometimes be a bit wonky at times with snowfall but this would be disastrous when combined with the wind

That is very possible. I wonder if we see blizzard warnings fly with the afternoon packages

It is going to be wild in Portland and especially west during the early morning

yup going to be interesting to watch that evolve later on

Not too long until we start seeing those

This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in.

60% of the time I go conservative every time

given the steep lapse rate you would think the neat sfc freezing temp is probably a very shallow layer and then quickly cooling but yeah there certainly is room to cool the column further. Can you recall seeing a winter storm potential where bufkit was spitting out 65-70 knots atop the mixed layer? I'm sure it's happened but that seems quite anomalous for these parts.

NAM bufkit for PWM early Thursday morning. This is a true blizzard. Blizzard for the ages

The best use the snow maps will be for this storm is printing out thousands and thousands of copies and using the paper to help keep wood stoves and fire pits going with the mass power outages coming to those up north.

been there, done that

Coastal areas are going to get rocked by wind and even into the interior. Low-level lapse rates are quite steep. I wonder if coastal Maine/New Hampshire could gusts 70-80 mph.

This area is going to get demolished if this verifies. check out how long the banding just sits and rots over this area.

portions of extreme northern New England could even tack on another multiple...perhaps several inches of snow Friday

Thunder sleet still on the table. Hope we get lase rates like this in the next few months

Well technically you're under the purple since 5,000 feet is still above you

This is some insane inflow ~80 knots feeding into -7C to -8C air at 850...oh my