weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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well at least it a NW flow and not off the ocean
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Only a few weeks away from the 384th hour of the GFS getting into May
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There is no more ice storm watch, just right into ice storm warning. I don't think there are any other advisories tied into solely freezing rain (though winter weather advisory could cover minor glazing).
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I think it will be very difficult for much of Connecticut to really warm sector (outside of Fairfield County).
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could see some strong storms into southwest CT tomorrow. maybe some transient supercells
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Looks like we're going out like a lion!!!!!
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maybe some localized strong storms Monday for western areas
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quite unstable too
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The Daily Climate Reports I think may have that info. EDIT: I meant NOWdata https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box Here's BDL
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This is a pretty complex situation. Almost looks like the wedge of cold is more focused up around 925mb and not even much wedging at the sfc. Hi-res has the coldest temperatures in the higher elevations versus within the valleys...opposite of what you would expect. Big key may be what happens with temperatures Friday night because there doesn't seem to be much room for temperatures to rise at all north of the boundary.
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If there are maps worse than snow maps...it's ice maps I would actually much rather snow maps than ice maps....ahhh I can't believe I said that. Someone put soap in my mouth
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@40/70 Benchmarknot sure hw much you're into datasets/updates but ERSSTv6 data has been released. Read through a good bit of the paper...really interesting stuff. I know you don't do much with ENSO pre-1950 but it seems this version helps greatly with some of the uncertainty and error with SST data pre 1950.
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Yup. My aunt lives like a 1 minute drive from the airport. When I was living with her I used to go on walks and walk along 75 briefly and then turn towards Old County Rd. You could easily feel the difference in temperatures from some of those side roads versus along 75.
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A good portion of Windsor Locks right along 75 there is nothing but concrete and pavement lol.
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Yup...not looking forward to them pulling off 83 while its 52, cloudy, and drizzle here
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Never!!!
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This is bull****. The deep south got a bigger winter storm than we did and now the PAC NW will get a better severe event than we will this summer. May as well just skip summer and try luck with next winter
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Going to see a few nasty S-N moving supercells in Washington State today. Don't know what the record hail size is in Washington but I say they break it today. There will be a >2" hail report...book it
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Ground temperatures get way too much credit. The ground is not water, the temperature of the ground can adjust very quickly to air temperature and can be heavily influenced by precipitation. If the air temperature is 38 and the ground temperature is the same or whatever and you have heavy precipitation falling, and in this case snow, both temperatures will adjust quickly. Will it impede some accumulation? Certainly...but it is going to be a very insignificant amount of accumulation it impedes.
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I feel like you'll have to really be a good like 75 miles into the warm sector to maximize the true warmth. There is a great deal of llvl moisture along and even just behind the front. If this was late May we could probably mix that out but that's a struggle in late March.
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Since I do like being technical, the more correct process here would be warm front lifting northward, then becoming stationary, and potentially retreating south as what would then be a cold front.
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I think the anomaly maps are kind of "useless" anyways for this. They aren't really providing any information that we don't know. If you warm sector, its going to be anomalously warm and if you fail to warm sector, it will be awful. The key is determining what the likelihood of either scenario occurring is and IMO a 2m temp anomaly map isn't going to do that.
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Is it really a backdoor front? I thought it was more a warm front lifting north and having its progression shunted....didn't seem to be much of a mechanism to continue driving the warm front northward until Sunday when the main SLP lifting across the Great Lakes region deepened a bit and lifted northeast.
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Looking at the sfc, its difficult to see the warm front making much northward progression within the region Saturday, though the Euro would probably favor this moreso - which is reflected within its output. If anything, there is a better chance for much of the region to warm sector Sunday, unfortunately it would be a dirty warm sector. Regardless, that is going to be one monster gradient Saturday...Great Plains like
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Don't see this often
