weatherwiz

The map I posted is mixed-layer CAPE and the color shadings correlating to CAPE values (with increasing values left to right) which is a measure of energy (J/KG).

Can't wait until we start getting some greens and yellows/oranges over us

Too much

It's March...we enjoy the nice guys and suffer through the shitty days...but these shitty days with clouds/rain early in spring are needed so we don't burn come summer.

Best part about April is playoff hockey and baseball regular season begins. Unfortunately, we only get one of those this year.

Short-term guidance is laughable tomorrow from the OV through the Northeast/mid-Atlantic

It's a Monday and we need the rain so can't complain too much, as awful as the day is.

I would say the extended HRRR is out to lunch with some showers and flakes mixing in for the higher terrain tomorrow night but the Euro has it too.

Should be pretty snow squally up north tomorrow

I wouldn't be shocked if we are able to sneak in some super warm days for sure.

These signals though for some impressive ridging into the Inter-mountain West/Great Plains region makes me a bit nervous. Wouldn't take too much to get omega blockish.

I don't know about past the second week of April or so, but I don't see any "torches" upcoming, unless one wants to count a brief period ahead of a FROPA. I mean we'll still end up on the + side of departures but I don't see anything for prolonged or sustained torchy weather (which I would define as highly anomalous). With the way the northern hemispheric flow has been we really need to watch FROPAs too because we could end up wedged in and maybe even start introducing cutoff potential.

Cold, overcast, and gross out.

Actually much better now than it was even an hour ago.

Yeah it’s pretty chilly. Was going to do a few things outside but it’s not even pleasant in the sun.

This is some of the coldest, wind driven rains I think I’ve ever felt.

Had a gust that had to have been 50-55

Holy wind…it’s like a tornado outside

At St. Patty’s Day Parade in Holyoke…what a day. Was worried we would be clouding up quick today with that shortwave/front but hung out to sun much later. High clouds only filled in

Beer?

I love how the slide leads right into a puddle of water!

Sun breaking out here and wind is beginning to crank

I think alot of it is touching a dangerous line. Is there use and benefit with AI, absolutely, 100%. But at the same time I think there is a dangerous line with it.

Pretty soon there will be 500 different AI models out there and all it is going to do is cause even more confusion and a wide range of forecasts. You'll have the companies or whoever producing these models robbing people and industries blind because they will claim their model is "the best" and they can do it cheaper and faster. "Ohhhh my model hit a thunderstorm that hit West Palm Beach and it showed potential for tree damage on whatever Boulevard and that's exactly what happened".

I'm always happy to read the papers on this stuff but when I do I always find a ton of red flags. First off, because everyone is so interested in AI and there is alot of money to be had, it is extremely easy to suck people in and its even easier to align a presentation or paper in a way that is easily going to do that. Alot of these papers will tell you about the successes but then beat around the bush when it comes to the failures. "Oh such and such did extremely well with this past storm and nailed it 6 days out and blah blah blah"...then its painted in this glorious light and all of a sudden people are hooked. There are so many red flags out there on this stuff but because its all lead with faster, cheaper, better...those are words which are meant to draw in an audience and from there you can easy manipulate and then just provide them with whatever they want to hear.