weatherwiz

EF3 for Chicago later?

What a crushing in eastern Nebraska with thundersnow

That is a decent SWFE signal for interior New England Monday. One question is whether Sunday being convectively active in the mid-South ends up robbing alot of moisture but that may not be a concern here.

Have to look more closely but a quick glance...it's probably a cold rain for most. Snow probably above 1,000 feet. Adirondacks get smoked though and probably southern Greens and even maybe the Berks.

No doubt that tunnel can be long. I mean we've certainly had some terrible weather well past Memorial Day. It's a crap shoot around here.

I don't think its anyone rushing to that crap, but I do agree that these great days early in the season can sometimes make us forget how shitty spring can and usually is. but I don't think its anyone rushing to this...its more about knowing there will be these type of days mixed in and trying to take advantage of them. It's also a sign that, yes while we have crap, we are going through the tunnel and be out of the crap soon enough.

Friday could be pretty decent for the Adirondacks. Could get smoked pretty good actually.

Maybe the problem is just where it is being dumped. I know Ray has mentioned this several times, but we haven't really had any patterns favoring dumping the source region cold directly into our region. The dumps have been central Plains, upper-Midwest, and then those airmasses are moderating quickly as the move our way. Also, even this winter was seasonably cold here (I would at least term it that way), it seemed there was just a lack of that bitterly Arctic cold on this side of the hemisphere. There was that one period in mid-February where the central states got it. Ultimately though, from a research perspective, we may have to fine tune expectations or re-define the sensible aspect of weather as a result from the combination of teleconnections. What probably was a strong correlation in the 1970's and 1980's...might not be as strong anymore. And this could be from a variety of different reasons, including just from building the database itself....adding more scenarios to the picture.

I mean look at the backside of the past few systems that ejected into the Plains and lifted northeast along with the one for mid-week. For such strong and rapidly deepening low pressure systems, the cold spilling in on the backside seems lackluster. Its cold air wrapping into the system...as soon as these systems are ejecting out of the region, the warm right back up. It's not like these systems are bringing days and prolonged stretches of BN temperatures within the central states.

And when looking at any "cold shots" in the extended they are going to end up moderating as we get closer. I don't think there is much to suggest its a colder look or we're going to enter a BN regime. The teleconnections can say what they want but there is one thing we're lacking...a colder base across Canada. Just seasonably chilly, at best behind systems. However, if we get some wonky stuff where we're stuck in an onshore misery with extensive clouds and drizzle...that is a different story.

Any cold or below-average periods will likely be brief and the result of strong fronts moving through as opposed to any significant changes in the pattern. There will be some crap days for sure but the overall but as long as we continue this theme of rapidly deepening lows which eject into the central Plains and lift northeast, the warmth will outweigh the cold.

A precursor to the derecho we’ll see in a few months

Maybe more of an inversion down that way?

Some big gusts here…very loud.

just insane. I always get a kick out of the video out there of two people watching it come towards them and saying "it isn't that big" But this is just crazy to have such a visual in this region.

Can’t believe 2018 was already 7 years ago and 2011 14 years ago

Can’t wait until these are 30F higher

I’m sure the higher elevations will get another accumulating snow event before all said and done

Holy shit

I don't know how people can sit on ice. I would be EXTREMELY nervous that I would fall in. If I wanted my butt to be cold I'll just sit inside a walk-in freezer.

This is more like it

Curious to see how well that verifies. We all know there is a tendency this time of year for those cold shots to be overstated and this one may fit that mold. However, that isn't a good enough reason to justify this case but when looking at this you can see why it probably is overstated. First off, these are some intense cyclones undergoing rapid cyclogenesis crossing the Plains so they are drawing down some chilly temperatures on the backside. Hell, there could be a decent swath of heavy snow on the backside of this from South Dakota through southern Minnesota and even within the Ohio Valley they could get snow showers Wednesday night. Anyways, for us, these systems are also occluding extremely quickly and tracking well to our northwest...its difficult seeing any anomalously cold llvl airmasses truly advect into our area. But maybe the BN temps are more related to some local influences with onshore flow from the cuttoff in the ATL?

About as intense of wording as you'll see with this much lead time. Perhaps the scariest part of these next two days is great significant tornado is evening into overnight period when you get the additional ramp up of the LLJ. Sometimes you'll end up seeing potential lessened because of storm mode (quickly becoming linear) but the southern extent of the whole risk area is really primed for numerous discrete supercells based on wind profiles.

Thought we may see a high risk

Could be quite warm indeed just ahead of the front.