weatherwiz

Probably one of the most impressive line-embedded tornado potential I think I've seen for these parts tomorrow. Unusually when you're seeing 15% tornado probs, you are either talking about or looking for discrete cells (which of course are very possible tomorrow) but that degree of turning combined with sufficient CAPE in the layer and timing of the forcing...going to see some significant rotation embedded within that line tomorrow.

Tomorrow is one of the most impressive setups I think I've seen for line-embedded tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow. That is some serious turning in the lowest 3km with what looks to be more than sufficient CAPE, not to mention the timing of the strongest forcing seems to coincide quite well with the best ingredients.

Yeah this has serious potential down that way tomorrow. I imagine the power outages are going to be quite high

So close, yet so far

Easier said then done

Reading the blizzard warnings in these. would be epic to experience one of these midwestern blizzards one day. True blizzard stuff

yup...not sure what vendors use as an algorithm for those wind gust products but there are as bad as the snow maps

Monday doesn't seem overly impressive for winds...nothing out of the ordinary for these setups. Best bet would be getting a solid convective line to hold but looks like it falls apart quickly. 3km though does suggest there could be some embedded strong convection though.

Can’t wait to bake in June/July with some Sonoran heat releases

Maybe we can use uber helicopter and take measurements at H85

D3 45% area LFG

The upcoming stretch looks like spring in New England. Some mild days, some really mild days, then unsettled weather with FROPAS followed by some chilly days

Yeah I wasn't taking your post at 100% face value...figured there was some humor in there. I do agree though that the climate classification system could use some tweaking and maybe even introduce some micro-climate classifications (though I am positive there are...but they could probably use some tweaking too).

That is some serious early season heat building into the West. Bet we see some big wildfires get going

hey the classification system isn't perfect but aren't there like micro-designations anyways?

Actually its not really the timing that screws us, the trough sort of de-amplifies a bit and all the dynamics lift to our northwest

We'd probably see a marginal risk if not for the crappy timing

Technically as we are a continental climate type, our summers are defined as being warm and humid, so yes it will be a warm and humid summer

In about 15 or 16 days the CMC will get into May

Tuesday will be a day where mountains in VT/NH somehow pull off 5-8" with upslope

Highs well into the 90's to lower 100's within southern California Monday with teens in the upper-Midwest

yup doesn't seem to be any stations around POU reporting precip

just started sleeting here

It's not about what happens on May 1, it's about what it means. It's akin to like June 1 being the start of hurricane season...what happens on June 1 in terms of tropics? Nothing necessarily but it designates the start of the month where activity can start increasing. Outside of the Earth's tilt of the axis, what exactly happens on the first day of spring, summer, fall, winter...nothing really. It just marks a period in the transition.

Interesting note on the SSW (well lackof). One thing I find interesting this winter (based on the pattern) was the lack of a more active STJ (maybe that was a product of ENSO state?). Of course, when we did have the active STJ with the blocking in January, we saw what happens when those to coincide. I'll say this and this is going to yield alot of agree-to-disagree, but after the last few years or several years...give me an active southern stream versus an active northern stream any day of the week. Sure active northern stream comes with plenty of opportunities but we just try to will them a chance because of the probability (or potential game) with the mindset of, "well one of these have to work out". what does work out and I bet with high probabilities (or "higher") is throwing an active southern stream into the mix when you have blocking and the polar jet throwing PV lobes into our side of the hemisphere.