weatherwiz

Yeah there's alot with the 700 low that has me nervous. I think this is going to be a nice storm but still lots of questions to resolve.

I'm not sure how I feel about these elongated llvl + mlvl lows. This is going to be an insanely difficult forecast. There will be busts in the higher direction and the lower direction I think and I'm not even sure how you portray that within a forecast.

Yes, there is a great deal of uncertainty with it and there is no way to know for sure right now exactly where it holds up. That's why I've held off on making any type of forecast at this point. But what I'm looking at is as we get closer, how will the modeled band be in relation to what occurs? My thinking is at verification time, the banding is going to end up being northwest of where the models are pinpointing. Looking at where the models show the highest QPF axis 12 hours out and saying that is the sweet spot may not work out that way.

I really hope there won't be much subsidence south of the band. Haven't divulged too much into those details yet but that is always a concern. I am also a bit nervous by this placement b/c the most intense banding (I think in this case) would be displaced towards the northwest side of this fronto...so the highest totals would be like S VT/S NH....then south of there could have several different issues going on.

yeah that's what I'm thinking...that's why I think it is going to be difficult to exceed a foot with this, though not impossible. Right now though I'm thinking 10-16'' for max zone but I'll do a forecast tomorrow.

what does 15z look like?

bufkit has some decent winds down at HVN

boom

Does anyone who have Weatherbell (or maybe Storm vista) have access to EPS at the 700mb level? Weathermodels doesn't have it but I am curious to see what the EPS do with the mid-levels

Art least for my spot, I feel somewhat confident I may end up in the range of higher totals from this but I'm getting a bit worried the most intense banding is going to be even north of me.

Trying to get a feel for ratios right now. Obviously the farther south you go, the ratios won't be as great but I think ratios for the most part should be relatively good for most. Maybe right around 10:1 for most and then under the intense banding, maybe 13:1 to as high as 15:1? Again, where sfc is a bit more marginal, ratios probably a bit less than 10:1.

I'm in the general thunderstorm line

I didn't even see your post...we must have posted at the same time But my post wasn't in reference to what you were saying at all, the way the posts lined up it looked like I was refuting your post but that wasn't the case. I agree with you, that is the high end tease...maybe we can slow this down a bit and achieve that.

This thing is hauling. It may be difficult for anyone to achieve more than a foot. I was thinking a 12-16 or 12-18 was certainly doable but that is going to be very difficult I think.

Adorable

The only use mesos will be with this one is helping pinpoint banding and intensity of banding.

I am starting to like the increasing consistency with the GFS/Euro, at least with some of the pieces involved. Not sure or really interested what the snow maps or showing. Based on how this would likely evolve, however, I would think that the best banding and heaviest snow is going to be quite north and west of the sfc low...so even if there was a track which favored say NYC or the south coast, the heaviest banding would likely be north. I think things tighten up too late to really get the banding to collapse south towards the center until eastern areas.

At this time I'm leaning towards an interior northeast Massachusetts for jackpot zone extending into northeast Connecticut (but not quite to tolland).

Let's go baby!!!

I actually should take some time and pull one of Steve's favorite chores...picking up dog poop. There's a few month surplus out in the backyard.

probably tomorrow start paying closer attention to snow growth, lift, snow ratios, etc. I feel like there are going to be alot of challenges with this one. Several red flags and several green flags (or whatever is used to refer to something good lol).

The NAM would deliver the goods to many.

Tomorrow is going to be a fun day. With temperatures around 60 I'm going to sit outside and watch the Bruins game...all while tracking a big snoowstorm...love it!!

Correct. sorry...misunderstood what you were asking.

The SGZ can vary. The snowgrowth zone is denoted within the level of the atmosphere in which temperatures range between -12C and -18C. This is the temperature rage where the best dendrites are produced. So in a colder airmass, the bottom of the snowgrowth zone will start at a lower height level within the troposphere. So you're seeing the SGZ lower there because the airmass is getting colder. Yes, time goes right to left.