weatherwiz

yup. there is a misconception that climate change means no more snow or no more cold...that is totally untrue.

Yup...looks like we may be getting a little bit of a start on severe weather season. Pretty soon we'll be seeing these classic spring bombs with severe weather ripping through the midwest and blizzards from the central Plains into the upper-Midwest

@dendrite remember the January storm you brought up Earl Baker's isentropic surface analysis page and how it isn't working? This week we happen to be going over isentropic analysis (which is completely blowing my mind away, especially as I'm reading this 80+ page paper from the late 1980's which is pure gold) and I've been trying to find if any places provide forecasts. I came across this https://cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/ (under numerical models, forecast theta sfcs). Only has the NAM but is this similar to what Earl's page plotted? I can't remember what the plots had looked like:

good thought too

I want to say that was around the time the city started to experience it's development boom (well before the 70's) but would be a reasoning to explain the rapid increase in overnight mins (urban heating)...very similar to that of Las Vegas

gotta pin the May 1st thread, getting awfully hard to find it every morning to update the countdown

I believe there was a special weather statement

33

can't blame him

I got just over 1.5"

What fell this morning essentially has melted already with additional melting. Good...get the streets all clear

I wouldn't mind going out with a bang. But if we're getting something around or just after mid-month it better be a big one.

I think there may have been a SWS but we've had WWA issued for 37F and some specs of freezing drizzle that only freeze onto car tops and garbage bins

I'm fine with continuing with some winter storm threats until about March 15 but on or around then I'm going to be itching for warmer weather. Obviously I know how springs go around here...could be 70F one day and 38F with drizzle the next but you just take what you can until June or so.

I was thinking to myself yesterday, I was shocked there weren't WWA issued

There doesn't seem to be anything that could really support that solution.

Funny how the 12z GFS continues to be north

It's a huge weakness of the NAM where it can often struggle at initializing precipitation

12z 3km picked up a little more on the evening squall potential

Just a bit over 1.5" here so right about what I expected

Right on the back edge of this now (although some lighter echoes still west). Will go measure once this exists shortly. Going to say maybe 2" looking outside at the table.

Been very consistent with it. the 3km has shown it a bit but no where near as impressive as the HRRR. Models though do hint at a bit of instability with some steepening lapse rates moving through during the evening though. Some pretty strong elongated shortwave energy right across the region. HRRR probably too aggressive though

Some of the latest HRRR soundings, particularly across southern CT are pretty impressive...some really good lift just punching into the base of the DGZ

When did they start introducing 3 hour delays? It was always usually either 60 min, 90 min, or maybe 2 hours but I don't ever recall 3.

The HRRR is been horrible but its been very consistent with some hefty squalls this evening