weatherwiz

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow.

Should be an interesting ride the back half of February probably right into at least the first week of March. After about the second week of March or so I will be game to start looking for warmer weather. Until then lets pile it on

how far north cirrus gets

very generous!

Well you need to write a thesis statement of all the "ifs" that need to happen...chances are it isn't happening

This made me laugh too hard

I don't know if this is necessarily about bringing the storm more north as much as it is building a precipitation shield farther poleward due to better dynamics. That's probably something to watch for. There really is little to support the storm bumping north, however, if we can increase the dynamics a bit (with assistance from a better northern stream) we might be able to build some light precip into the region.

Nothing like that really. This is also probably more WOR. Someone though could probably pickup 1/2-1" or so.

I like the color blue

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates

Telling Will which model to use

Another thing to factor into the Sunday/Monday ordeal too is this is really going to be the first system in quite some time that is convectively active across the deep South and that is something that could negatively influence the northern side of the storm and have much moisture/QPF is really available.

I've been very confused about this. Where has all the talk come from about muting warm ups all winter? Outside of that stretch we had in January, I don't think there's been any [realistic] signals of any "warmups". I mean I suppose you can quantify this week as a "warmup" though its still below climo. Where between January and up until now has there been any true warmups signaled? And 2m temperature anomaly maps from a few OP runs

If we could shift that ridge maybe a couple hundred miles west and pump the heights up a bit more (speaking about pattern beyond the Sun/Mon). I really don't think the second half of the month is totally lost but we'll just have to hope something can work in our favor in terms of overall evolution

As they say at the DMV, "NEXT"

Had my first severe weather dream of the season last night. There was a large severe risk from the Plains through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region into the mid-Atlantic. I was deciding on and where to chase. The SPC had wording saying around Detroit would be great and somewhere else. I think an eventual moderate risk came out (a big one) and there were even 5% TOR probs I think which got into SNE. Don't have clear visions or memory of all the details though. But this is always a great sign we're getting closer

Whatever happens though, this period has been well discussed since really the beginning of the month. Obviously it's going to suck big time if this doesn't pan out but it goes to show that 1) Periods of potential can be sniffed out beyond 10 days 2) How the pieces move and evolve ultimately play a significant role in the outcome

Stranger things have happened and it seems like a long shot but we'll need an awful lot to work in our favor. That was definitely a weird evolution on the 0z euro as dendrite mentioned. Still have today and even tomorrow we really sort this out though we'd probably want to see big jumps on all guidance today.

That's a great point that need to be added on. If I was expecting 20-25" but only got 10"...well the tone may be different

That mindset is so foolish...no wonder some are always disappointed, too worried about what somewhat else got instead of enjoying what they got.

I would not.

I think we're definitely going to be introducing PAC air into much of the country but that doesn't mean we can't or won't snow nor does it mean we can get colder weather at times. The upcoming pattern though looks a bit volatile and active so there is that. I don't want to say we're looking at a gradient pattern but something along those lines is definitely possible. It seems there is higher confidence in how the Pacific evolves (though guidance has struggled with this) with lower confidence in the evolution of the Arctic which may be tied into the models toying around with SSW potential.

have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon

That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that

I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so.