weatherwiz

Sea-breeze hasn't really made it far inland either? Seems to be confined right along the coast or just onshore. But we'll see what happens after 5-6 PM...nice blow up of convection across PA which could not only scrape southern sections of the region but yield additional development ahead of it

Surprised they still have trees in Kent...they seem to get crushed all the time

Not shocked...looked like the core was right over Kent...was a beast

it's been horrific this entire warm season lol

Was just looking at that...nasty looking cell with a good core

Pretty good hail CAPE in place. Perhaps the high levels result in alot of melting so any hail reaching the ground is pea to 0.50" but with MLCAPE ~2000 and mlvl lapse rates ~6 the more vigorous updrafts have a shot

Shear may be a bit too weak, however, I would not be surprised if we get some cells that drop 1" hail today.

I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see some widely isolated stuff develop during the early afternoon but it's probably after 4-5 when we would really see stuff develop. The mesos are really all over the place so they probably won't be helpful today. My guess with this is because the forcing is on the weak side so it will be localized influences aiding in the development of convection (orographic, for example). Mesos do target along where the sea-breeze will be, but I think the degree of development along the boundary is underdone. In airmasses like today we tend to be active along it.

Tomorrow should be interesting too. Again, not a tremendous amount of forcing but the NAM/GFS have a nice little speed max at 500 developing across the region which contributes to ~30 knots of bulk shear. Residual outflow boundaries from today could be a focus for tomorrow. May have to watch for convection to blossom overnight tomorrow with some better forcing approaching and adequate jet streak across the region.

Not sure really...first time ever going and it was a gift from my girlfriends parents for her birthday this weekend. From my understanding though they aren't "terribly expensive"

same

Has anyone ever gone on a cruise this time of year...what are the odds of seeing distant lightning during the night? Really hoping to see some

It will be a bit more inland than that

It is going to be quite active right along that sea breeze today. Today is a day where people scream bust because their backyard saw nothing, meanwhile you have a swath of flash flooding and localized wind damage

We're going to see some flash flooding today EDIT: should say more this evening

I think precipitation amounts (as well as sky cover, wind, temperature) are just populated from a grid and there probably isn't much human manipulation in those point-and-click forecasts. I wish I could remember all this better because oceanstatewx has explained all this in great detail several times how this process works . I think this is why you'll often see forecasts saying "mostly sunny" when it ends up being filtered sun behind high clouds...I know at least NBM does better with this but I believe MOS won't report or forecast clouds above like 10,000 feet (or 12,000 feet)? But for QPF amounts with convection, I would assume in the grid its just averaging whatever is falling within that grid and that's how it determines the ranges? But I also think oceanstate has said that the wording used in the forecasts is based on QPF totals and visibility? So showers versus heavy rain wording will be tied into the QPF range and with snow light versus say heavy is tied into rate/visibility.

ehh I don't think it's fair to say the system underperformed. I am assuming you are referring to July 3? Based on the reports received and on the SPC page, the watch certainly verified. Remember, there is nothing in the definition of a watch which measures or accounts for how widespread wind criteria/hail will be. The definition just relates to having ingredients favorable for thunderstorms to become strong to severe. But in terms of the rainfall, when it comes to thunderstorms things can become extremely localized and there just aren't enough reporting stations to fully capture what can/may be ongoing at a local level. For example, one town could get slammed under a thunderstorm and get 0.50"...0.75"...even 2" of rain while a town or two over just on the edge barely get 1/10th of an inch. Sometimes too with thunderstorms, it isn't about how much rain falls as much as it is about how much rain falls in an x amount of time. 0.75" of rain total may not be much but if that is falling in like 30 minutes...that could lead to some brief problems.

Yeah timing not particularly favorable and instability will gradually wane during the evening. Probably going to be another big nowcasting day...the mesos have been extremely awful here in terms of convection. Will have to do a good ole fashion synoptic analysis in the morning and try to highlight local boundaries...that's where we'll see convection probably fire early afternoon (albeit isolated). Shouldn't have an issue reaching the convective temp tomorrow.

Overall the forcing is on the weak side, but its going to be quite unstable so it will be interesting to see how the convection plays out. There are subtle height falls through the day too. One thing which I think could be a wildcard too is the mid-level lapse rates aren't as terrible as you would think given the setup. Usually in these setups we're dealing with mid-level lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM or even less...we could be around 6 tomorrow...that's still not great but it may be an added boost.

You know what I've been thinking about...the term "showers" in say like scattered showers and thunderstorms or isolated showers and thunderstorms...showers doesn't even do it justice anymore. Need to start communicating them as downpours and thunderstorms. When you have dewpoints well into the 60's and especially 70's...these aren't just your regular showers anymore.

Curious to see how widespread activity will be during that time frame...seems like there will be a weak west-to-east boundary within the region (maybe just a sea-breeze lifting north?) and that will be the focus for convection. Which if this pans out there will be a concern for flash flooding. Could see some training storms across northern CT into RI and probably just south of BOS.

Tomorrow looks prime for multiple wet microbursts. I suspect we see an upgrade to slight at some point.

Looking at some of those river gauges the rises were unimaginable...so many gauges that literally shot up like 20 feet in less than an hour. Absolutely horrific.

Flying down to Florida Thursday and going on a cruise from Saturday - Monday. Forget where it leaves from but going to the Bahamas...hoping to see thunderstorms from the boat or at least lightning in the distance at night.

WOW. Had that happened last summer. That was close!