weatherwiz

turned into a hot chocolate day

things will fill in across Connecticut so most should get a decent little drink but the flooding stuff will be south

that cell is spitting CGs in the inflow notch haha. starting to looks like a Plains supercell

there's the warning

that actually may be a few scans away from a TOR

interesting looking cell headed towards EWR

I'd watch the potential for a tornado or two across the Connecticut shoreline and especially Long Island.

Seems like the risk for any significant flooding is on the low side. It's looking like everything is going to be more progressive but where stuff trains you could develop some issues. But overall the rates shouldn't be anything too out of this world.

may see a few pop up showers/thunder across the high terrain tomorrow

Humidity needs to be factored in as well, especially considering how humid it has been this summer and how often we had oppressive dewpoints. Not dismissing the temperature data and what the rankings are but in terms of capturing the entire picture, humidity needs to be factored in to provide full context and perspective.

ahhhh I didn't know that...I take my statement back.

Thanks. hmmm kind of weird products

Is @OceanStWx around? what the heck is this stuff?

maybe a few tornadic supercells are southern PA tomorrow...though 0-1 shear ay be a bit weak

I am still very torn on this. I mean it's certainly going to rain and I think at least a general widespread 1-2" is likely but am very skeptical on something like a widespread 2-4" with a strip of say 4-7". I think the NAM may be overamped with the degree of the 925 jet and despite how juiced the NAM is, there isn't a ton of convective precip. I also think we're going to see robust convection across where the SPC has the marginal (probably eventually upped a a slight risk) and that is going to (negatively) influence areas north of that.

I think what's cool about grass is you can see a dogs pee pattern in it.

Actually some good llvl dynamic cooling on the NAM

Nice good soaking. Could be a solid damaging wind event across Maryland and Delaware tomorrow.

There should be robust convection which develops across PA/MD tomorrow...I would have to think that is going to be a huge player and rob a good deal of moisture which should scale back potential for significant flooding concerns. Dynamics don't even look as impressive as they once did

This might be more of a beneficial, widespread soaking rain than anything. Localized flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas where there is greater convective enhancement.

By the time someone reads that post in an impacted area they’ll be swept away

Forget how how to do the embeed tweet thing and it’s too much work https://x.com/nwsgrandforks/status/1950377134565785933?s=46

All have been along the ring of fire. I’d be nervous if I was in CA lol

Revised to 8.8

Wow