weatherwiz

the purple/yellow box denote the snowgrowth zone (I always forget though what the difference between the purple/yellow are). The red contours are omega (rising motion). you want the best omega right within the snowgrowth zone (crosshair signature). This is a great signal for heavy snow with intense rates.

BDL - I'll take this come verification

To Tip's point about getting totals that high, that band will be zipping along

The speed of the storm could certainly be a factor in obtaining those higher ranges. That always needs to be factored in when thinking go big or go home type ordeals. Not setting that potential into stone yet, but something I think is viable if everything falls together correctly. IDK...probably more likely it can be discounted but I'm not going to do so just yet. I'm giving until 0z/6z guidance before totally dismissing it. I mean even at this stage we're seeing large spread within the northern stream and still some differences with the southern stream.

Yeah I would certainly be concerned for that as well if I were you. But given how the band should be pretty large, hopefully that would result in your area getting into it too. Still lots to iron out through the weekend.

While I am getting excited I am still nervous that this could end up south and we get skunked. I don't think that should be discounted yet.

I'd watch for Monday to be a bit colder than guidance, especially if thick cloud cover gets in here earlier in the day.

I think a 12-16'' max zone is absolutely doable with this and I agree with Kevin in that it should be entertained.

The differences in the speed of the northern stream between the 18z/12z are insane.

This is almost over my fanny but I'm too skinny to get directly over my fanny. Not bad!

One thing that may help alot of people out with this is that deform band isn't going to be some narrow zone. It's going to be a pretty large (in terms of geographic coverage) band.

The changes in the evolution of both the northern stream and southern stream over the past 24 hours have been astonishing. With the way this looks now I would not be surprised if the deform band ended up farther north than guidance is pinging currently. I guess one thing we really need to hope for too is that southern stream amplifies or digs as so otherwise this could turn into an ugly strung out ordeal very quickly. I am a bit nervous with how things have trended speed wise. Expectations still in check for now.

Indeed, the duration of the storm as a whole may not be that long, but the period of high intensity could be pretty wild. I don't mind having this arrive during the daylight others either, don't have to kill yourself staying up all night and losing sleep

Been trying not to have much in the way of excitement or expectations for this yet given how much uncertainty there has been but looking over things this morning I am starting to get quite excited. Still lots to iron out and I hope we get some more consistency but you can't hate what the past 24 hours have looked like in the modeling field.

@dendrite can you add an angry emoji to the reaction list?

I'd rather have 37 and drizzle on July 4

This is a great point, but this also raises conflict. If you're discussing this stuff taking a scientific approach, you can't have a million definitions and criteria otherwise there is just mass confusion. I suppose though having a ton of different definitions is fine, but the criteria needs to be established and there also needs to be sound reasoning.

It still boggles my mind, even after all the discussion this summer, how some still think that a strong EL Nino mean no snow or little snow. We have had strong EL Nino's with plenty of snow. There are also plenty of EL Nino's with lots of snow and plenty with little snow.

True...to some extent the ocean can certainly give the Midwest a run with the winds. I would love to experience a true Midwest blizzard though, I would have to think its something that would be more epic than what we ever see here. I mean how often do we see portions of 84/91/95 close due to a winter storm? Portions of I80, I90, I94, I29 will close multiple times per winter and sometimes for multiple days. Conditions just get too dangerous to even have plows going out.

It would be sick if we got the winds they did in the Great Plains with their major storms. That's what really separates their storms from ours in terms of impact.

Thank God for brooklynwx99. It's great to see comparisons at H5 to illustrate differences in either model run to model run or model to model vs. using snow maps to illustrate trends/differences.

Well even if this one doesn't work out, at least through much of the remainder of the month both the northern and southern streams look active. I think the northern stream being active in we can get good storms from northern stream alone. I like the southern stream being active, and coincident with the northern stream, in that it offers potential for significant cyclogenesis off the EC. chances will not be limited.

What really sucks about this too is, if these discrepancies remain over the next few days there isn't a heck of a lot we can do. It's not like the error is resulting from sampling or lack of sampling. It looks like its just a result of how quickly the southern stream reaches maturity and exactly how strong the jet streak gets as it rounds the base of the trough and when this starts to occur. There are so many factors which can play into this that we may not know for sure until real-time Monday morning.

Yeah the divergence in the southern stream around that time is pretty eye opening.

If we're comparing GFS to that then I would still feel much better having Charlie Brown behind the football than Chad Ryland in terms of our hope for a hit.