weatherwiz

It's not far off probably from producing severe wind gusts by the time it gets to Tyringham. Probably needs a warning in a few scans

Thought we could see that potential today given forecast hodos yesterday.

I would be working outside today if not for the risk for storms too early in the afternoon. Outside with a laptop and electrical wires if a storm quickly popped up...not good.

may already have a low topped supercell entering Berkshire County

For pretty weak llvl winds the clouds are moving along a bit...weird. Not sure quickly but definitely notable for what mesoanalysis is showing. Must be driven by increasing winds in the upper-lower troposphere and mid-levels. Probably help yield some transient supercell structures if we can get anything good to fire

A nice CU field building on satellite though but struggling to get much vertical development. Actually have some nice towers looking outside

Yup...most models really nailed that yesterday. Far southeast Mass and the Cape still have a shot to get crushed if activity can organize dropping southeast. 1200 J of DCAPE there per mesoanalysis...not too shabby.

cold front dropping southeast, looks like the pre-frontal trough is moving into western Mass now. Today will be a southcoast ordeal (CT/RI/MA)

Looks like we have some dewpoint pooling beginning to occur. May be headed in a direction of an organizing line that forms probably just south and east of Hartford.

I mean yeah in that retrospect that could be a bit of a pattern change but if the ridge is just wobbling back and forth does that really count? The other aspect too is we've often seen this time of year (especially lately) where EPS gets a bit too aggressive with these changes. But yeah...these fropas will certainly mean business with a more refreshed airmass. But it is end of July now so we really aren't far off from beginning to see the subtle changes towards seasonal change. But I think its more likely than not the first half of August is quite warm/humid with a few breaks behind fropas. Have to watch that WAR...that will make or break probably.

Despite whatever pretty blues people want to find, the regime and theme is going to continue well into August which is above average and humid. Any pretty blues aren't from a change in pattern, its just the product of an airmass advecting in behind a FROPA which is then replaced with the overall theme once the heights reset.

I'm also hoping we can pull out something in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. This is going to require getting everything timed perfectly which is not the case right now but still a few days to watch. Problem though is best dynamics are just behind the front and that's not something that usually changes over time.

That's where the CAMs seem to hit at strongest theta-e advection and moisture pooling. You'll also probably have some sort of sea-breeze boundary to aid in forcing

That's probably the only hope. I guess the NAM is out to lunch with those dewpoints but if we can pool the dewpoints it may be a little more interesting. I still wouldn't be shocked if we were to see a line organize across southern CT into RI but yeah shear is weaker farther south...maybe just enough to help updrafts organize. Looks like convergence along the front is a big issue

GWWBT

it never left

probably be well west of here unfortunately.

Still need to watch for an EML event Tuesday

I would think we see at slight at 1730z. If these trends hold I could eventually see an enhanced with 30% wind but not sure that would be rolled out given how poor the lapse rates are

Tomorrow will be a fun test too. NBM is a few to several ticks warmer than MOS at several sites tomorrow.

No but I feel like I've been seeing more lately.

I am really torn on tomorrow...CT could be ground zero for greatest risk of damaging winds but I think this is highly dependent on the dewpoints. The HRRR really mixes dewpoints out and then increases them ahead of the front across southern CT and I guess its no surprise this is where the HRRR intensifies the line. Heck even the GFS mixes them out. But looking at the llvls...I don't see dews really mixing out. I'm inclined to side with the NAM here which would argue for a big day across CT.

I'm calling a Hamden microburst tomorrow.

He looks like Borat

I wonder if we may actually see a splitting supercell or even a left moving supercell tomorrow