weatherwiz
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The HRRR doesn't look terrible at all, just judging by SLP track. Happy to see so weird lows or dual lows. The low is more elongated which may help with a more expansive banding/QPF field? A tighter circulation would introduce potential for more in the way of banded precip? This is where my overall lack of knowledge on winter storm climo bites me in the fanny...I knows its been discussed before about differences between a more elongated low vs. tighter circulation. -
Took a few longer swigs of beer to prevent hyperventilating
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Yeah I'm not sure why anyone would want to really do that, that analysis doesn't tell you anything at all. If you're seeing changes I would think you'd want to look at what the root cause is and look for any changes in evolution, structure, lift, etc. Sure the 18z GFS may be "south" but it was more juiced overall. That's a ton of QPF being thrown into some intense lifting.
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I'm not so sure the difference is north/south as much as it is structural/evolution differences. It's easy to say there is a shift just comparing the snow maps (which is awful) and QPF maps, but there may be much more it to than just shifting.
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Boston could get smoked. I just realized something...the big storm on 01/07 the Bruins played the Lightning in Boston and SMOKED them. Bruins play the Lightning again this Tuesday...Lightning may not be the only thing getting smoked in Boston Tuesday.
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Still pretty impressive stuff on the 18z GFS bufkit for BDL. 45 units of omega into the SGZ is pretty wild stuff. I am still a little nervous about getting widespread 12''+ (but did that anyways) given how quickly this race through. Cobb technique does have ratios under the banding around 13:1. If we can get ratios that high then 12''+ should happen
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I don't think there would be thundersnow. But I usually overplay it so now that I say there won't be we'll have thunder galore.
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Not as confident out towards the Cape. I always have low confidence out there since I never go into great depth looking. Spent alot of time trying to digest the banding potential and highest total swath. I almost didn't want to include that area and go with a larger range because its going to be very difficult to determine how that evolves.
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Forecast https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/02/tuesday-february-13-2024-winter-storm.html
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I wonder if the NAM is chasing convection here
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It is. The 3km NAM also aligns more with my thinking currently. I've never been big on the NAM for this type of system and was just more curious with how it would handle banding over anything else. The NAM has been more inconsistent run-to-run than most other models. I am inclined to toss it...but there is always that worry it "sniffs" something out. Working on a snowfall forecast now.
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the 3km seems nothing like the 12z. I've seen the two differ before but WTF
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no precip going on though.
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The upper end of totals is going to be held back just due to how quickly this is racing through. I think it's still a challenge as to what the upper range is but I would think it will be tough for even the hardest hit areas to get more than a foot.
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That is moreso down across northern CT into southern MA. Precip is knocking on the NH border at that time
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Yeah 3km does look a few degrees warmer. Interesting...not sure what to make of that. Seems slow to cool
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3km has a little warm nose around H7 within southern CT. Going to be some power issues right along the southern flank of these totals where the snow is wet...especially with some wind. Even BDL I wonder if they could gust 30-35 mph.
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Death band of fronto on the NAM.
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Was just looking at 6z GFS bufkit for BDL and its pretty wild. Should see a good 3-4 hours where rates are anywhere from 1.5''/HR to as high as 2.5''/HR.
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I’m thinking like 12” for me. Not 11.5, not 11.8, not 10.2, not 13.1, not 12.1”…but a nice solid foot
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For some yes…but I think there will be some downside surprises as well. It’s just natural in this type of setup.
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If that banding materializes quick enough I think Ray has a good shot for 15” or so. This one will have lots of surprises, on the high and low side. It will be what it will be
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Well considering I may get a foot of snow and wet snow I finally uninstalled the A/C in the bedroom.
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BDL 18z GFS bufkit...holy crap.
