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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Was just looking at 700mb RH but it's not necessarily dry air on a better look...RH is still like 85-90%. I thought it was lower. But I have no complaints with the NAM...love where we sit on it. I would maybe like to see it occlude a bit farther north though, especially since it seems to really crawl. That would end up nailing with with a CCB but may also assist in pushing it farther north instead of sitting and then pivoting through? idk...kind of minute to worry about now but just a thought
  2. weatherwiz
    Actually looks like the NAM is wrapping in some dry air
  3. weatherwiz
    Let's Blizzicane it
  4. weatherwiz
    The NAM is going to go absolutely nuclear. Can see that happening at 60
  5. weatherwiz
    Definitely encouraged by the Euro. Would like to see it get tugged a bit more but overall (for western peeps to get into the best goods too)...for where we stand time wise that is definitely doable. No complaints on this run either though. Keep it going tonight please
  6. weatherwiz
    BOX rolling out some watches
  7. weatherwiz
    These snowflakes are absolutely MASSIVE
  8. weatherwiz
    As long as we melt by April 30
  9. weatherwiz
    Think I need around 65" to hit 100. Hoping to get that down to around 62" today and then around 40" Sunday into Monday, maybe get that down to 25" end of week then finish off the rest in March and early April if needed
  10. weatherwiz
    Well after the brief pulse up then pulse down its been ripping very good and even beginning to stick. Time to re-freshen the pack a little bit and then add another 1 to 2 feet Sunday night
  11. weatherwiz
    GEFS looks pretty damn good.
  12. weatherwiz
    and it just shut down as quickly as it ramped up
  13. weatherwiz
    snow coming down pretty good here! intensified pretty quickly.
  14. weatherwiz
    snow has started!
  15. weatherwiz
    I am not so sure I would classify this as a tick southeast. Obviously, looking at this face value that's the take, HOWEVER, that is also tied into where the GFS believes the brunt of the CCB will traverse and impact. So in this regard, the QPF isn't necessarily reflective of trends in storm track but trends in CCB (which we know models don't do great with until ~24hr or just inside). BUT...this does provide a very good proxy of what you can probably expect for max QPF
  16. weatherwiz
    Yeah he's been quite spot on with diagnosing the trends and how things may evolve so I definitely think there is some additional room too but being cautious on the extent
  17. weatherwiz
    Absolutely nothing to complain about on that GFS run. Just have to hope we see a bump in that direction from the Euro too. You have to wonder though if this is the far western edge of the envelope of if there is some additional room for a bit N and W, if this is the western envelope I'd def be a little concern for those shuffles which of course wouldn't be good for western folk
  18. weatherwiz
    That is some serious dynamic cooling going on too. This LLJ is absolutely insane...imagine the moisture being tossed into this and look at those temps
  19. weatherwiz
    IDK...this looks pretty damn good to me with getting heavy banding across much of the region. That 700mb low development and track is pretty solid. Maybe not perfect but strengthening just to our south with a bit of ENE movement.
  20. weatherwiz
    70 days to go!!!
  21. weatherwiz
    Yup...can't believe I forgot to mention that and this probably supersedes what I mentioned in terms of importance. The NAM does have alot of strengths and unfortunately its weaknesses really suck but at least those are very easy to spot and understand.
  22. weatherwiz
    I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations
  23. weatherwiz
    Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear
  24. weatherwiz
    Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction.
  25. weatherwiz
    That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on.
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