weatherwiz

3-3 OT in Olympics, particularly for a medal is absolutely insanely ridiculous

so many chances on both sides. what incredible PK by the US...whew

maybe it's me being a weenie but based on the mid levels I would absolutely bet QPF ends up being much higher across Connecticut. Unless things really do shut off that quickly but that mid level evolution and low tracks seem pretty prime to me for CT

I am inclined to side with this as well. I mean it does make sense if it occludes too quickly but you still have a good deal of 700mb VV on the northwest side of the low back across CT late Monday morning while NAM is winding down. I still think models are shutting things down a bit too quickly

That is going to absolutely crush from BOS down through Hartford into Southwest CT

That is going to be some absolutely epic banding

Absolutely salivating looking around at soundings. This one is New Haven, CT from 6z NAM

General line expanded north!!!!

That happened to me once I think in 2008. We were having a morning severe event (I think it was the day of the Swanzey, NH F2. I stayed up for like 2 days in a row excited for that morning and fell asleep as things were starting and I missed 1"+ hail at my house

I don't know if any of us can go that long without seeing the SREFs

Ahhh yes I see it now.

My initial thought was something along those lines but the soundings are absolutely nuts. Kind of reminds me of 2013 when we were seeing radar returns like that but it was all snow

This is absolutely disgusting on the Cape. That's 40+ dbz

ka-boom

the banding

I still think the models are breaking that down a bit too quickly

Gotta show some love to the WSSI

Talk dirty to me and whisper slowly next to me ear

Exactly!! I absolutely believe there will be some 4"+ per hour rates

Ultimately, I would really like to start seeing more signals for a pivot and maintaining of this intense fronto to really get excited and hopeful for widespread 18-24" but its more a quick south to north push and then it kind of fizzles. I think though there are signals which argue for that to occur and I wouldn't totally expect models to accurately handle this right now. But anyways...it is going to be absolutely epic for some hours. 18z NAM 18z GFS

This. Gotta be very careful with using QPF charts to diagnose banding. Intuitively it makes sense but this is where you have to look at mid-levels, how they're evolving, and how they're tracking. And with this that is part of why I think 18z GFS QPF is a bit underdone

I'm greedy and want/hoping for 2 feet even though I'm not getting it. Getting 2 feet would get me ~40" from 100 and then hopefully cut that to 20" end of the week

I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was actually a bit too low with QPF, especially along the QPF gradient (like Ray alluded too earlier) but too me it seems the GFS is way too quick in shutting down the CCB. I know the system has occluded but its shutting things down a bit too quickly with 850mb winds coming in at 50-60+ knots. Yeah its more of a northerly component but there is still a moisture fetch from the Atlantic.

I don't think that's chasing convection there. Just kind of a quick glance but at least one thing it looks like is it isn't as clean with the injection of all the shortwave energy on the backside.

Yeah it is a bit further south and east...I was just thinking it was noise but next few frame was definitely more than just noise. I think from here on out its really going to be about focusing on the CCB and how it evolves and does it pivot and where so...thats where we're going to probably see 2"+ QPF. Even though the valley shows less for QPF (especially just north in MA I don't think you can totally rule out the valley getting clobbered or even a scenario where the heaviest banding actually pivots across the valley