Yeah the greatest aerial coverage of storms will be north of us. Timing kind of meh for southern area, plus the greatest forcing is north. However, I do think we'll see isolated strong storms into northern Connecticut during the early evening.
Outside of lapse rates, Sunday isn't a terrible setup. Have to iron out the timing and details a bit better but could have potential for a few tornadoes. Shear is pretty decent and instability looks beefy despite the weak lapse rates.
Yeah its been a while since we've seen a legit airmass like this. I was actually just looking off to the north and east and noticed how blue the sky is...haven't seen it this crisp in a while. Noticed the moon overhead too
It's insane. I mean we're supposed to get cold fronts that move through and bring in these type of airmasses. This is still summer weather for us. We aren't supposed to be 90/75 for weeks and months on end...this isn't the tropics lol. 85/59 is just as much summer weather here as is 92/70.
Cool breeze out there this morning. It kind of sucks actually. If you want a cool breeze just open and close your freezer door quickly for 5 straight minutes.
I follow him and talk to him every now and then. I think he just graduated HS a few years ago but for his age he is extremely smart. His posts are solid quality IMO
I wonder if we'll ever be able to get an EML/approaching shortwave to time during a period when its like 95/76 region wide and get MLCAPE 4000-5000 J/KG with 40-50 knots of shear. That's how we'd probably ever get a high risk again (well at least probably NY/PA and maybe extreme western sections of SNE). When I used to be bored I would write discussions with parameters like that here...this could actually verify one day.
Remember back in the days when (especially when looking at soundings for thunderstorm potential) the NAM would show 72-73+ dewpoints and it would be tossed for being too high
Was looking over SSTs and SSTAs in the western Atlantic and if we continue the theme of not getting cold fronts into the ATL we re going to be playing with fire come Aug/Sep.
I was explaining this to my girlfriends parents...though not sure they fully grasp it living in Florida. I think their takeaway was "oh my God that's chilly" when I talked about how lows should be down into the 50's within northern New England