weatherwiz

Had a gust that had to have been 50-55

Holy wind…it’s like a tornado outside

At St. Patty’s Day Parade in Holyoke…what a day. Was worried we would be clouding up quick today with that shortwave/front but hung out to sun much later. High clouds only filled in

Beer?

I love how the slide leads right into a puddle of water!

Sun breaking out here and wind is beginning to crank

I think alot of it is touching a dangerous line. Is there use and benefit with AI, absolutely, 100%. But at the same time I think there is a dangerous line with it.

Pretty soon there will be 500 different AI models out there and all it is going to do is cause even more confusion and a wide range of forecasts. You'll have the companies or whoever producing these models robbing people and industries blind because they will claim their model is "the best" and they can do it cheaper and faster. "Ohhhh my model hit a thunderstorm that hit West Palm Beach and it showed potential for tree damage on whatever Boulevard and that's exactly what happened".

I'm always happy to read the papers on this stuff but when I do I always find a ton of red flags. First off, because everyone is so interested in AI and there is alot of money to be had, it is extremely easy to suck people in and its even easier to align a presentation or paper in a way that is easily going to do that. Alot of these papers will tell you about the successes but then beat around the bush when it comes to the failures. "Oh such and such did extremely well with this past storm and nailed it 6 days out and blah blah blah"...then its painted in this glorious light and all of a sudden people are hooked. There are so many red flags out there on this stuff but because its all lead with faster, cheaper, better...those are words which are meant to draw in an audience and from there you can easy manipulate and then just provide them with whatever they want to hear.

yup...that's what I think anyways. And we may not even get that much...eastern areas maybe a tiny bit more. But that is a good shortwave coming through with sfc cold front, cold mid-level temps, steep lapse rates, and CAA.

“Aardvark reimagines current weather prediction methods, offering the potential to make weather forecasts faster, cheaper, more flexible and more accurate than ever before,” - This mindset is one of the downfalls of our society. All you have to do is tell someone you can do something for them faster and cheaper and its like dangling a carrot in front of the horse. This crap is food for the gullible. ”Tests of the Aardvark model revealed that it is able to outperform the United States national GFS forecasting system using just 10 per cent of the input data, leading researchers to say it could offer a “revolution in forecasting”. so one of the most important aspects of forecasting, especially for short-term, which is input data...you're just going to totally reject? So what's the method, Miss Cleo's crystal ball?

This stuff is getting so out of hand

Hell, actually I think we see some showers/graupel move across the region tomorrow.

Not only that but is there really any good opportunity for that shortwave to dig as much as GFS/Euro have hinted it? I mean we've seen that same crap all winter long. Something going on where in this range they get dig happy with that northern stream. The way I see it now its going to end up just a weak wave with some showers and maybe snow showers for higher elevations.

Yeah tomorrow morning may be sunny or have a good deal of Sun, but I think we cloud up quick. That's a pretty potent shortwave moving through during the day with very cold mid-level temperatures. 50's for highs though which isn't terrible...but would feel better with Sun.

Would like to be able to compare that to other climo periods too...would be interesting. At some point using terms like "below average" are going to mean nothing really. At some point below average temperatures in winter for us will be above freezing lol.

I wonder if this inconsistency and violent swings is an indicator that we may be headed towards much warmer times. We've been in what has been a seasonably cold pattern through the winter with some warmer periods in March which were really driven by intense central Plains cyclones. But this may be a signal that the hemisphere is rapidly going through the seasonal transition and for us that would be warmer times. Of course there will be local influences which screw us (BDCF, any cutoff low potential).

Clouds cleared quick...blue sky here...temps jumping

Good thing the Red Sox open in Texas. Red Sox will be playing in 85F weather while avoiding wildfire smoke while Fenway is getting buried.

Watch something finally work out in late March or early April

Definitely...but I think that's what makes pizza so great. I at least love both styles though I think I may be in the minority in that. It seems like everyone has their one preference, either New Haven, New York, or Chicago.

New Haven pizza is the best for sure. Just behind it I would have to go with Chicago Deep Dish...but from Chicago. When I went to Chicago like 4 years ago I had some and my uncle could not believe how much I ate. The "Chicago Deep Dish" you can get around here is fake.

That's probably the best digging northern stream we've seen this season Too bad models have been piss poor with it

Like 26 days until the 384th hour of the GFS gets into May!

Did someone say pizza