weatherwiz

Late overnight and tomorrow morning is going to be 100% nowcast. If we can sneak the instability gradient a bit farther east we could see something roll through but this may be just too far west. If anything can form along a residual outflow boundary (again west) later in the day...that sucker could be huge...will have rising heights to contend with though

When I went to Florida my first time ever 3 years ago to visit my girlfriends parents we flew into FLL…when I hit that wall…it was amazing.

All these advisories for heat and here you have winter advisories in Montana and Idaho

It's extremely intriguing. These type of setups are absolutely brutal to forecast in the northern Plains/upper-Midwest (where I think they are "most common") so imagine how much of a pain for us. Obviously there is going to be a hell of a cap in place plus we will have heights rising...but this could be offset a bit in a NAM solution. But this is something where if you're just looking at QPF alone...you could totally miss/disregard any convective potential and all of a sudden inside 12 hours mesos start going wild.

Sunday has to be watched closely though. Either with MCS timing or if the MCS is north any outflow acts as a boundary but that is about as volatile of an airmass you'll see here with tremendous shear.

Crap had a spider crawling on my leg. This is why I hate shorts...they expose skin. I felt something on my leg and thought it was one of those weird looking flying white things so I slapped it off and then saw it starting to crawl and it was a spider.

What I think also gives this more support is the NBM doesn't look to be overmixed wither...still has upper 60's to lower 70's dewpoints. The NBM tends to be lower with dews. I guess though if we end up seeing dews more 72-73 versus say 68-71 then we may be more 99ish versus 101-102ish.

Here are the percentiles. This is a pretty damn good signal for highs to get into the 100's in the hottest spots. Not sure how much this applies to our area but in these anomalous heat patterns...those 70th-90th percentiles usually work out. This has with some of those big heat events within the West anyways...again not sure if that can be applied here.

I'm waiting for some trees/limbs to start snapping.

Brutal. The 3km pretty much nailed the whole evolution in the midwest the day prior while the HRRR was awful...I thought maybe that was a good omen for yesterday...nope. The pre-frontal really screwed us yesterday and not having the steep lapse rates as advertised. Maybe if we did have the steep lapse rates that stuff with the pre-frontal would have been more intense.

These gusts are insane. Have to be gusting 40-45

Clouds quickly leaving here...getting into strong sun now!

ahhh...I thought that looked extremely odd when I saw that. I didn't catch there was an error.

I was shocked seeing this

Could be a wild evening and early overnight that way, probably a 1-2 hour window for some big TORs too.

It actually kind of sucks. Figured I'd work outside and wear shorts today but its cloudy and cool. Put on a little light jacket and may have to switch to long pants.

3km has some violence later today

so the HRRR screws up in the midwest but then it ended up being spot on for here (talking about how yesterdays runs didn't show much). SCREW YOU HRRR

eh screw it...just going to go home. nothing else looks like it is popping and the stuff going on is coming down

Not a bad idea, but traffic may be miserable getting there lol

Probably going to go hang in North Branford for a bit in the field next to police station. It's a nice open spot. But that still may be just a bit too much into marine influence. Maybe I'll do Wallingford.

Yeah 6.5 C/KM is respectable. Of course steep lapse rates aren't a requirement for severe weather, they are when you're talking about the potential for widespread and high end severe weather but you can still get severe with weak lapse rates, its just more very localized and typically not high end.

Yeah we see stuff pop more easily but the trade off is weaker activity. This is why pre-frontal troughs hurt us more often than not...once we get the convective temp reached we start popping too early. This is one reason why those EMLs are so important. they keep a lid on things until the strongest forcing can arrive

probably producing hail west of Bristol

ughhh I think it has ticked east a bit...maybe be along the NY/CT border. well at least we'll start seeing more pop