weatherwiz

The Euro would be rocking for some MCS/derecho potential. Northwesterly flow aloft and I bet the sfc we're probably right on the gradient of rich theta-e air

I saw this the other day. While I am extremely skeptical with the AI stuff and the movement with AI within the field, this is something I think is worst investing resources in regarding AI...short-term/nowcasting, not medium-range. I think there is tremendous potential in this regard when it comes to improving lead times with severe weather and flash flooding. Glad you threw in there the caveat too...that is something that should definitely be made aware and realized by everyone reading the study. But I am excited for this.

Absolutely...if anything looks good into northern CT that's where I'll be. I'm a little upset...there is an empty lot in between the Spare Time Bowling Alley and that hotel. A friend of mine pointed it out 3 years ago and I started sitting there. It was great because you had a bit better view being a bit farther back from the building across from McDonalds on the airfield. But the lot is not blocked off with cinderblocks what I really need to do though is find a good viewing spot within Suffield towards Thompsonville. BDL is great for the views but I feel like more often than not the best stuff happens along Suffield/Thompsonville.

The usual caveats apply with poor mid-level lapse rates Friday, however, could be a few nasty storms around

Don't have to, the south climate is moving up here

I would expect that this deep into summer the EPO and especially the PNA would have minimal, if any, influence on the pattern at all. the other thing I think to keep in mind too (and this fits in with your bolded) is with this pattern upcoming, it is likely to be quite convectively active across the International border with potential for numerous MCSs and squall lines. Given we're downstream of this, the impacts (or how the models think downstream will behave) are going to be more pronounced over our region. I mean at some point we are going to start to see noticeable changes occur as we continue approaching the equinox, but we are a good 4 weeks or so before we start to see these changes take place.

A wild card too late next week and into the first week of August is the western Atlantic ridge. There is a possibility the degree of troughing across the East is overdone as well, especially if there is a greater connection of the southern ridge and WAR. Now, we'll probably see some sort of trough because there will be a weakness in the ridge and there will be shortwaves/developing FROPAs. But IMO, we are far more likely to see above average and well above at times versus anything else (again, outside for a day or two behind a FROPA).

It's an overall above-average pattern with brief cool shots mixed in which are the product of a post FROPA airmass but within 2-3 days of the FROPA any troughing flattens out and we begin building heights. The southern ridge has been flexing west/east for the last month-plus...deviations west/east in the ridge axis doesn't quantify as a pattern change. It's just like today/tomorrow...these are the product of ripping a decent FROPA through and is something which should be more common for us given our latitude. This isn't a "broken back" its our climatology.

The extended is slightly above-average and probably some days well above average as we would likely get pieces of max 850 temps shunted our way at times.

That was 2008

Back when we used to do widespread damaging wind events well. Those 90's years into the early 2000's had some memorable events. We would even do overnight severe well. August 9, 2000 was something...was non stop crashing thunder.

yup...this is what summer used to feel like in the 90's after our FROPAs...when we used to also get nasty squall line blowing across the region.

It will suck if we can't get one legit (like EML potential) severe weather threat in the upcoming pattern. The important details will be Where ridge axis is centered and how expansive (latitudinal) the ridge is - this will be important in terms of the strength of the mlvl flow and where that axis traverses along with strength of shortwave energy traversing the flow. We would want to see the pattern favor shortwave amplification over the Northeast. Where any plumes of EML air eject and whether they can maintain their integrity which will be dependent on convection and how overturned the airmass would get over the northern Plains and upper-Midwest. The synoptic look is something that could favor EML advection into our region, however, any EML advection could also easily get shunted to our southwest.

Won't mind sitting outside in October watching Bruins games. Hopefully we roll 80's and 90 right through October.

I'm still old fashion and like doing stuff in notebooks

The breeze drives me nuts because when I'm doing stuff in notebooks or trying to read it blows the pages and annoys the crap out of me.

It's pretty nice out...was debating on wearing jeans today but rolled with the shorts and I'm surprisingly comfortable. But have to deal with the annoying breeze.

The overall look upcoming is warm. You can't see a snip it of a specific time (whether that show reds or blues) and say that is a theme. We get cold fronts that move through. Again, this isn't the deep tropics...we get cold fronts that move through. Behind stronger cold fronts we're going to get much cooler airmasses. Turning cooler with pretty blues for a day or two behind a FROPA doesn't change what the overall look is. When those cool airmasses start lasting for several-plus days then we can say we're in a different regime.

Close…laundry

I should have just went to BDL ughhhhhhhh. Stupid, stupid, stupid ughhhh. Idiot

Ellington/Crystal Lake area have to be getting nailed. Bet there is wind damage reports from there shortly

Maybe another fakebado like 2013

Llvl probably just a bit too weak for something to spin up unless it catches some sort of boundary or there is some local enhancement

There’s the tornado possible tag!