weatherwiz

Not sure if anything can sneak into southwestern Connecticut tomorrow late afternoon, but there could be some good squalls moving across parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey though this is more likely too far southwest to give anyone here a shot.

Probably a good cross wind going on there for the main runway. What kind of flights were diverted? Could be too big for the smaller runway there.

That was a wild month for sure...that winter/spring were pretty crazy. We even had some smaller accumulating snow events early in April and I remember we even had a looming threat during like the 3rd week of April which I think higher elevations of NNE cashed in on...and then a month later 5/15/18 happened

Anytime you have confluence around and it could be a major player, you can't let your guard down, even inside of 24-30 hours. This rings true whether models are consistent with a big hit or something more of a brush. Remember back in I want to say winter of 2017-2018, I think it was second half of winter, there was that big storm and models underestimated the confluence and what was looking like a good 1-2 feet for Connecticut ended up being a Long Island special.

The second half of the month seems much more favorable to me than this period was for us given how the structure of the NAO may evolve. I know you and Will touched upon that last evening, but I always felt our prospects are much higher when the core anomalies associated with the -NAO are poking into Greenland or you have a nice anomaly center just east-northeast of the tip of Greenland...assuming you have some cooperation from the PAC...a terrible PAC with this look can screw us greatly.

I don't totally mind it but it's usually on full blast

I've done it when it's super cold...like single digits or below zero but my girlfriend also likes to sleep with the fan on so I usually bury myself under the blankets. Heat is set to 69.

Cold is cold...tired of having to wear a winter hat every day inside. Sometimes I even sleep with it on

This is the type of -NAO I like to see. What it comes to NAO correlating with snow here, especially larger storms…forget what the raw index is, structure is important and this is what you want to see

wouldn't that be funny

Just imagine...6-10'' of snow in Atlanta with EF3's ripping across Florida

Is it me or does it seem like local governments or investing less finances into winter mode resources? For example, growing up in West Hartford, even after large snowstorms, the roads were in great conditions very quickly. Meanwhile you went over a town to Hartford...disaster. While I haven't lived in West Hartford in several years, I am still there often and even after some winter events...it doesn't seem like they care for the roads like they used to.

This right here. There is a lot of money to be had in the private sector of meteorology and people/businesses willing to pay good $$$$ for it. In that sector, nobody wants to hear words like "Potential", "This looks god but....", They don't want or care about the ifs. This is where the confidence is the forecaster is immense and how the forecast is communicated is huge.. If they wanted to or cared about the "ifs" they could just get that freely from social media or other outlets. They are paying for skill and paying someone to differentiate for them when there is real potential/concern versus the "hype". If you're in the private sector and forecast for people or a business that can have operations severely impacted by winter weather and everyime you're telling them the pattern looks favorable for snow because of pretty blue colors and they start changing operations to prepare...you're going to cost businesses a ton of money and have some very angry people to deal with.

It's measured in tears

The Pacific doesn't really seem terrible moving forward and I would much rather have this NAO block relax some and the NAO signal to be skewed negative, but closer to neutral. I think in this scenario (with a favorable PAC) we keep cutter concerns at bay but introduce a more active storm track. I would love to start seeing a more active southern stream involvement. I know Ray and I kind of disagree on this but I think I would much prefer to roll with that at this point.

Elevated instability can do wonders and when you have inversions in place help with those deep, loud rolling sounds of thunder.

It was kind of fun tracking thunderstorms last night. Too bad lapse rates were better than anything we'll get this summer.

A friend of mine said his girlfriend in Philly had small hail

Maybe a nice little light show? Looks like the edge of the elevated instability is pushing towards the shoreline. Wonder if there could be some small hail in these

BOOM. My girlfriend is on the FaceTime with a friend who lives in New Jersey in a highrise building and he has the camera facing outside and we saw a sick CG!!!

Right

made a thread! Who doesn't want to begin the year with damage

As one of Eminem's songs states, "Cold Wind Blows" and it will be blowing on Thursday. An area of deepening surface low pressure moving northeast across the region Wednesday into Thursday, combined with a large high pressure system building into the mid-South yields a strong pressure gradient across the Northeast Thursday. 925mb winds are expected to be greater than 40 knots region wide with 850mb winds exceeding 50 knots (while weakening through the afternoon). Forecast models indicate the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates region wide with a lapse rate within the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere up around 9 C/KM, indicative of strong low-level mixing. Bufkit model soundings from both the GFS and NAM indicate the potential for widespread wind gusts of 55-60+ mph with sustained winds anywhere from 15-30 mph. While widespread wind advisories are already in place, I would not be surprised if we see some upgrades to a high wind warning over the next day. While the trees are bare which will limit the potential for damage, due to the magnitude and duration of strong winds, scattered power outages are likely along with some downed trees and limbs. There also may be a nice localized pocket of light-to-moderate snow within the Greens of southern Vermont Thursday which could net several-plus inches of accumulation. 12z NAM bufkit for BDL Thursday afternoon. Don't see NAM outmix the GFS too often

This is one of the more impressive wind signals we've had in a while I think. The trees are bare so that limits damage potential but there will be some power outages and downed trees.

Thursday is going to rip. I also don't recall many times seeing the NAM outmix the GFS. Wonder if we eventually see wind advisories converted to high wind warnings. BDL