weatherwiz

Getting a little excited for some thunder later tonight

meh I don't think ENSO state is particularly dominant or a major driver right now. If anything, there may be quite the hangover from last years EL Nino. I was looking back and this December ended up playing out how I thought last December would

I can't remember which one it was...maybe it was 2013? But I remember getting royally screwed in West Hartford...I mean I think I still got around a foot or so but a far cry from the 18-24'' expected. I remember alot of pissed off people that night because the radar was just so bandy...it was like looking at a tropical system.

yes, thanks.

If precipitation becomes too banded then you're dealing with too many subsidence zones. There were a few big ones I think this happened with in the early 2010's. Areas that got into the subsidence zones got screwed mightily.

I’d prefer something in the 980’s. Any lower (hell even in the 980’s this could become a concern) you start to worry about precip shield becoming more banded…which has screwed us in the past. Really hoping this period around the 10th works. edit 70’s to 80’s

?

I would imagine it would be difficult to muster up warm anomalies to beat those, even with the climate regime we're in. Even in the warmest of patterns, we're likely to at least get at least a few strong(er) FROPAs to push through where, even if brief, it's enough of a cold shot to really damper the anomalies.

That's a massive area of -45C to -46C 500mb temps...can't recall too many times seeing that within the CONUS

Was curious what the record low observed 850 temp was at MIA. Looks like -5.4C 12/24/89. That would stand a solid chance of being broken if this cold shot is legit lol

A friend of mine and I were down in New Haven once and we wanted to get some pizza to go from I think it was Sally's...there was a 9 hour wait. Would have been so worth it though.

Have to find the link for airmass trajectory but I wonder if that modeled airmass has any traces back to like Siberia. Looks like it's just about as cold, if not, colder at 925 than it is at 850 under the core cold of the airmass. Isn't that like a staple of airmasses with Siberian origin?

Just seems like no matter what, we get screwed Can't wait to we eventually get out of this

I sacrifice Zadorov

yeah that's something I've thought about too. When we have an abundance of shortwaves it creates chaos with guidance and one reason for the struggle in the short-term but on the other hand...you would think with the abundance of shortwaves that eventually regression to the mean will work in our favor.

I am becoming extremely impatient and quite honestly, I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the last February event where I thought for sure I would get around a foot and only ended up with 3.5''. Maybe it has become a defense mechanism to just poo-poo extended range when it looks good for fear of being disappointed but I really am fed up with these garbage winters.

I certainly hope so! I am dying to do this Fair

Agreed on that but more often than not, storms come at the onset of pattern changes. When we get lucky, we can get the pattern to setup right and drill us with multiple storms in the span of weeks but that's not what this upcoming period looks to be. Look at even the last several winters...we have been in a terrible rut where we're lacking cold air ahead of storms but we have no problem getting cold in here on the backside of systems but once the next system approaches, we warm. This upcoming stretch looks like we get very cold, but lack an active pattern. There is that one period in the 10th-12th where teleconnections seem like they could line up to favor a storm within the East but the overall pattern seems absent of an abundance of shortwave energy.

These are two totally different scales and aren't comparable. Convection is mesoscale and severe is generally extremely localized.

These two statements are said 2-3x per winter and more with the second statement.

I often debate with myself...would I prefer an active period where you get several events but they're small to medium or one event that is a blockbuster. I never had a good answer for this. The blockbuster is great, especially because of the adrenaline rush leading up to and during the event, but that eventually does wear off and if there is nothing else going on...well it kind of sucks lol. I'm the same way with summer...do I want an active period with many thunderstorm events (mostly just general thunderstorms with lack of severe storms) or would I prefer one higher end event? I think I lay more towards active versus blockbuster winter event/higher end severe weather but it's tough lol

depends on the day

You obviously want to see good/favorable patterns modeled in the extended range but it's also important to get an idea of what is going on within the modeled pattern...how are things moving. This looks pretty meh to me outside of a few periods.

I have...looks boring. Not much in the way of shortwaves moving through...just elongated strung out vorticity and flow doesn't seem to offer much room for any type of amplification. The best shots for anything really are the period Tip highlighted and the 10th-12th. Outside of that it looks dry and boring. But the 10th-12th shouldn't be slept on.

Cold, dry, and boring...everyone's favorite. At least it will be staying light out later each day and we'll soon be gaining light in the morning.