weatherwiz

Friday night isn't really far off from becoming something more meaningful. Probably won't happen at this stage but damn it wouldn't take much...

35. I've been making changes the last few years but I certainly have a long ways to go. I think 3 or 4 years ago I joined MDVIP program. Insurance doesn't cover this and it's expensive (like $550 every 3 months) but I love the doctor and the program and with the costs this allows for additional testing with blood work and and reduced cost for various tests. Doctor is great...yearly physical consists of two separate appointments. One is blood work then its about 90 minute exam with the doctor's aid...EKG, eye test, hearing test, grip strength test, lung capacity test, etc. Then in two weeks you visit with the doctor and he spends about 30 minutes going over the blood work results and comparing results to the previous years then he does his physical. I am at risk for heart disease when I am older...it runs rampant in my family and I did this CIMP test when looks at the size of your veins and arteries which can be a good indicator of the potential for bad cholesterol to build over time. My latest test this year had improved results from the year prior and this was a product of changing diet. I've always had a horrific diet and I've worked on that but I really need to work on the exercise.

I've actually gained like 3 or 4 pounds in the last 18 months. Unfortunately, for me though any weight gain is going to have to come from muscle versus fat. My doctor said based on my "frame type" it's unlikely I gain much weight from fat. So I have to start working out...but this is a serious must for me because I have virtually become inactive and I am losing muscle mass.

On the shoreline and just went for a walk to Dunkin...I froze. Very misleading temperature with the wind. It's certainly better than 30 but my hands froze and I couldn't wear gloves because then I wouldn't be able to catch Pokemon.

Probably not. If we were to see any increase in that department it would probably be Fall setups where we get vigorous s/w to move through sound waters unseasonably warm.

Long stretches (stretches = years) below-average snowfall and little snow for the coastal Plain. It's what we have to get used too.

Since we don't get these anymore we may need to derive some acronyms for our cutters and rain storms.

wouldn't rule that out

Temperatures are going to be a huge issue but I would think on the guidance coming in we could see a narrow, intense fronto band and that may be enough to help overcome questionable temperatures. That's a pretty sharp gradient and with developing/strengthening sfc low there should be a potent fronto band.

There could be a narrow zone of some heavy, wet snow.

Perhaps for you. Down here we'll be in 70's and 80's and watching dews climb

Time to start gearing up for severe season. May is getting close

Won't really matter once California breaks away and floats westwards through the Pacific...or the entire state is engulfed in a wildfire.

Unfortunately Maybe the Sierra's will get another stretch where they get 500'' of snow in like a week lol.

Isn't there a link where you can see seasonal snowfall to-date compared to average? I would have to think even the West is below-average now...or if not many places will be soon.

Hopefully the NBM continues to be enhanced/improved too. That even seems to really suck...and in the same situations as NAM/GFS. I get its just a tool and you need to do more in-depth looking but if you're not in a position to be able to do that...oof that thing can really screw you. I do like though how the NBM at least indicates the presence of high clouds (above like 11,000 feet or 12,000 feet). This is probably why there are so many "busts" on sky cover...MOS doesn't report clouds above a certain height.

I don't know how much, if any, resources this eats up but why is a NAM MOS run? 99% of the time it's a piece of junk and laughable.

Data overload is certainly an issue. There is no realistic way for one to assess every piece of guidance for every available run. There are also way too many products available. This may seem like a good thing but it really isn't.

It is fun to have something to track but starting to track storms because of a D10+ OP run...oof. You'll be mentally exhausted after two weeks. Even when we get storms though, the forecasting has been exceedingly difficult. Very little model-to-model consistency and run-to-run consistency within 48 hours...this adds a whole new level of stress into the game, especially for those who do forecasting.

Yeah that's a good point haha. I mean I found myself a bit upset yesterday or Saturday night because I thought this upcoming Thursday had a chance and the evolution just flat out changed.

Does anyone else feel in a weird spot between time moving faster but also slower? October absolutely flew by as did November...but it seemed like time slowed a bit towards the end of November. It seems like December is going by quickly...but slowly at the same time. Not sure if the weather is factoring into that at all but think about this... We have not even officially hit winter yet and it feels like winter has sucked lmao. I mean...it's only freaking mid-December lol. It's like there is so much investment in OP runs looking at storms that pop up at 240+ hours that after like a month of being into the cool season, it's nothing but mental exhaustion. Reading some of the posts over the last week or two...you would think we're in like mid-February or late February and haven't had anything...it's only mid-December and we just hit that point. I gotta stop doing that too and breathe and realize its only mid-December.

Yup...often times guidance can be too quickly to break those types of patterns down. When you're getting deep troughs and potent lows into the GoA and that becomes reinforced, it is very hard to overcome that. You figure out peak winter climo for snow is like mid-January to mid-February...not a good look to see as we start to approach that period.

With the way things are looking to evolve for the end of the month moving into January...not a good sign at all. That isn't something that is just going to break down in a day or two either. Both the PAC and Arctic don't look to be doing us any favors...not a good sign to see moving into January.

meh I don't really buy into that whole ice growth/snow pack stuff. That is more of a reflection of the pattern versus something that is more of a pattern driver/builder.

Obviously this is just one piece to everything, but it can't be great seeing the PV becoming stronger and bottled up right in the Arctic. The entire northern Hemisphere virtually becomes above-average temperature wise and guess where the most anomalous warmth looks to occur...ahhh southeastern Canada. Almost looks strong Nino like upcoming