weatherwiz

I just read the last 8 pages of this thread and have zero clue what I read. If someone were to test me on the last 8 pages and to write a few paragraphs detailing what I read, the only words I'd be able to muster are, "W.....T.....F"

Going to be interesting around this window. HRRR generates just enough sfc based instability to warrant the potential for any convection to tap into these winds. I wouldn't be surprised if BDL got close to 50 knots tomorrow.

Definitely no argument with that. If we want to incorporate the CAA aspect that is certainly king

Ride the wind back home!

With sfc temps 60-62 and dews 58-59 there is going to be little issues with inversion.

Well just talking about *if* there is anything with a forced line. That would probably be OUR (not talking about eastern sections) BEST chance for maximum wind gust potential. I see tomorrow being windy due to sustained winds but we may struggle to get impressive gusts (above 40-45) because of how much rain there will be which stabilizes things. Just inland away from the immediate shoreline would do better.

Same thing with summer time squall lines...unless you have such an intense line that involves producing a microburst or macroburst or a derecho...the strongest winds are going to be either along the gust front or right at the onset of the heaviest rain. But because there is more instability to work with and stronger downward transfer of momentum you can fluctuate with some very strong gusts while as a setup like this you're more than likely to go calm quickly due to stability.

That's because even after all these years nobody can still seem to grasp the lines themselves don't produce big wind...it is always along the leading edge of the torrential rain. You get a massive gust of wind then a brief lull of quietness then it pours cats and buckets which quickly stabilizes the atmosphere.

Yeah...would probably have to go a bit inland...like interior southeast Mass? a bit away from the water. Looks like the 12z GFS did tick a few degrees warmer too...more in the 60-62F range versus 58-61F...subtle but could be a big difference maker. The other thing too with those eastern areas is they may be a bit more "unstable" with the heavier rain west. So they could get greater impact from that line as it moves east. Some decent signals the line could intensify as it progresses east.

The Cape is going to get smoked. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 60-70 mph gusts there during the evening.

The best winds will probably be from along 91 to Springfield and then north and east. Hi-res guidance is pretty impressive looking with the forced line, you could almost argue that should a line organize, it may not be that low topped. This would probably impact central Connecticut up to about Hartford and then points northeast and east from there. Remember...the line itself will not contain wind, it would be along the leading edge or just ahead of it. Big question though is with so much rain out ahead of it, will it be too stable to maximize gust potential?

Time is flying. Pretty soon it will be spring training

I'm hoping we get a severe thunderstorm watch tomorrow. Outside of northern New England it would be Severe Thunderstorm Watch: 1 Winter Storm Watch: 0 in meteorological winter hahaha

It is quite unstable too...lots of convection embedded...even ahead of the fine line

Haven't checked the 0z guidance but I thought we would see a 2% TOR area somewhere...likely northern NJ into SW CT but reading some of the posts that the 0z NAM was a bit east could explain for some of that reasoning.

3km NAM with widespread 50-60 knots of wind ahead of the squall line

MARGINAL RISK!!!!! Called it...knew it...LET'S GO!!!!!!!! WOOOOOHOOOOOOOO. YESSSSSSSSSSSS

There is a little inversion just above the sfc. Probably would limit the gust potential to an extent. Would need convection to maximize gust potential.

For sure, definitely increasing confidence for some damaging winds/power outages.

Should be getting 12z gfs bufkit soon. Something exciting about waiting for new bufkit profiles

I find it interesting that the HRRR/3km NAM appear to be the "warmest" of guidance. 12km NAM is pretty cold though and the GFS is similar to the 12k NAM...I find this pretty telling...sometimes the GFS struggles with the cold tucks so for it to be hitting on it is pretty big IMO.

Some interesting differences on the NAM versus GFS and one of the noteworthy differences is temperatures. At 0z Thursday the NAM is mid-to-upper 50's while the GFS is upper 50's to lower 60's. This may not seem like much but that delta could be a big difference in what is realized in wind potential. I would side with the GFS on this and if you put those temps with the NAM's evolution that is a major wind event for most.

Holy shit you're right...I see that at 7:00. That would probably be just before the main line would be approaching BOS too. Just checked the 3km and it has a pretty solid line. You may actually see the line strengthen as it moves west-to-east across the region with the enhanced upper support.

Just checked 6z GFS for bufkit at BOS...that is pretty wild at 9:00 PM Wednesday night. Though if you toggle the Momentum Xfer from 10 to 1 you can see that it is probably a bit overmixed. My early thoughts with this is we'll see some decent sustained winds across the region but if you're going to want gusts above 50 mph you're going to need the assistance of convection. Without convection the gusts may be difficult to come by (and for what you said...showery stuff stabilizing things). And good note about the wind with lines in these setups...important to understand the strongest winds occur just out ahead of the line and just prior to the arrival of the heavy rains

Going to be one heck of a forced line with wind damage.