weatherwiz

Looking at BDL on the NAM bufkit...NAM isn't bad for BDL. I was actually a bit surprised the ratio was as high as it is but the lift into the DGZ isn't too bad. This could be a case where BDL ends up with 2-3'' (which may be on the high side but I think its doable) while HFD ends up with like a coating.

Time to go freeze

Deleted other post...bad post. Anyways 0z HRRR looks quite iffy along 84 and even to BDL

If the Bruins score more than 2 goals tonight I may go make naked snow angels

What a sight

Let’s go baby

Overall modeling is substantially better but I think forecasting and forecasting skill is going downhill. At the end of the day, forecasting goes way beyond just quickly assessing various products such as QPF, snow maps, supercell composite parameters, etc. Forecasting is an art which requires a great deal of time. Unfortunately, in today's world nobody wants to spend time anymore...nobody has time. At the TriState Weather Conference there were a few presenters from NWS and TV one big hurdle for them is they are required to do so much social media presence...too make a long story short, people who work in forecasting are spending most of their time doing anything but forecasting. We're all on here quickly looking at H5 maps, snow maps, QPF maps between model-to-model and generating quick thoughts...but at the end of the day, for the most accurate forecast, multiple hours should be spent doing a diagnostic of the current state, taking current conditions and comparing to the models, then applying an understanding of each strength/weakness of a particular model, understanding the current pattern and using knowledge to gauge which model may be best at handling the current state and its evolution. But overall, I truly believe forecasting skill is going downhill because there is just so much running to and rip and reading specific products and not enough applications of meteorology to the process.

I love when there is weather going on because you can get some big time differences (at least with temperatures) from MOS/NBM, the 2m products, and bufkit. I should add with my comment, despite those differences, the end game isn't much different. Even on the "colder" guidance BOS is going to be too warm for snow but its just a difference of whether they can end as a mix or a brief period of all snow. I was looking at MOS/NBM for stations within the region...GARBAGE. Sometimes I think the NBM is a big time fraud.

Yeah these are certainly nail bitters. At least at this stage we have expectations for what will occur if the precip shield blossoms on the earlier side and what occurs if it happens to be on the later side. I think in terms of "gradient" from accumulation versus none is pretty set. along 84 is going to be iffy with little-to-any south and east of it. Not much else we can do at this stage with the blossoming aspect...nowcast for that like you said.

I think its more of a timing issue than anything else. The system is going to be juiced, its just a matter of how quickly does the precip shield blossom.

With at least a quick glance, I'm a little shocked the Euro doesn't have more QPF during that window. Looks like it is just a tad later with blossoming things?

Pretty interesting...NAM warms BOS through the overnight and GFS keeps them cold. Pretty big difference in the profile on bufkit nam versus gfs

It's the extended HRRR so caution applies, however, this is an intriguing scenario. Develops a squall line which races east and then interacts with the precip shield moving across the eastern part of the region which then allows for snow to blossom region-wide around the AM commute.

Like other methods, it accounts for temperature, moisture (relative humidity), but I believe the differentiator is it also factors in upward vertical velocity.

Not sure what vendors have for products but cobb method is probably the best to determine snow ratios.

ahhh... perhaps, would have to get lucky to be impacted by a snow shower since they'll be scattered but certainly could whiten the ground if lucky to get hit

Away from the coast and under the heaviet precip/lift...snow ratios probably a good 12:1-15:1. Using Cobb method and ORH bufkit from NAM ratio is generally like 13:1 it seems...even as high as 16 or 17:1 under best lift

I think I have a chance for around 2'' or so. I'm a bit nervous in the valley but I think one thing to watch for tomorrow which could help the valley's is how well do we mix through the day. It's going to get very cold tonight and if we struggle mixing tomorrow we may not see the valley warm too much. Even the mix happy GFS at CEF (bufkit) is barely mid 30's for CEF.

I think its going to rip pretty good in Worcester County right into northeast CT just west of where you have some initial BL concerns. Sufficient moisture into the DGZ with some pretty steep lapse rates aiding in instability. I would like to see a bit stronger lift on the RH sounding (at least from 12z NAM but we'll see what 12z GFS has) but I feel pretty confident in a 4-6'' zone and I would not be shocked to see a 7'' report in the highest elevations there (Worcester county). I could see 1.5''/hour rates for a good 2-3 hours...could even get drawn out closer to 4 hours.

certainly may be some enhancement across the southern Greens into the northern Berks with the initially due southerly flow

Nice shortwave coming through this evening with some mlvl moisture to work with

GFS looking juicy...ORH going to get a decent event out of this. Def going to be an area of 4-6''

Pretty decent ulvl divergence across the region and you have the nose of an increasing mlvl jet punching into the region along with a strengthening llvl flow (with core along/off the coast). Going to be some good moisture advection into the colder air coupled with enhanced lift from the divergence. We'll see how quickly this all blossoms but I like the NAM's idea of its wetness.

Yeah I do think Kevin is going to be on the border initially and that will cut down on totals slightly for him. I'm with you on the 2-3'' for him but I don't think 4-5 can be ruled out.

Thought we could see some intense snow squalls up north Thursday but there could be some decent upslope snows in VT