weatherwiz

I find the ENS-ONI intriguing, though I think its more designed to highlight ENSO events pre-1950. But it wasn't until I came across the ENS-ONI that I realized there are a ton of different methods and metrics to define ENSO events. Maybe this is good...maybe this is bad but I think this helps us to "think about the box". I debate though how much I want to involve ENSO events pre-1950. I don't think that data should be discounted, however, when creating composites and assessing it must be understood this data is all re-constructed and there are caveats. While it does seem like there has been a huge change in how ENSO events behave lately its very difficult to make this assertion because data coverage/collection is worlds better now...but even with this there could be inconsistencies, especially with satellite data/measurements.

Great thread, hoping to get more involved with the seasonal forecasting this year. I did last year but 2025 was pretty wild. Part of the problem is I get too much into my head. Anyways, I've gone back to the drawing board when it comes to creating ENSO composites. I've read made my lists of EL Nino, La Nina, and ENSO neutral using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI, however, I am not sure I want to go ahead and create a list breaking down by strength. Through the journeys and research and studies, there is a whole world of accepted definitions when it comes to ENSO and classifications beyond the typical ONI and SSTA thresholds we're all familiar with. When digging into strength classification I would like to incorporate more of the SOI and MEI into the classifications.

Even a quick look at some mesoanalysis products such as sfc obs/theta-e you can easily see the sfc warm front is well south of there. At least the kink in the warm front is correct

Hoping to see a strong wind gust this evening

well at least it a NW flow and not off the ocean

Only a few weeks away from the 384th hour of the GFS getting into May

There is no more ice storm watch, just right into ice storm warning. I don't think there are any other advisories tied into solely freezing rain (though winter weather advisory could cover minor glazing).

I think it will be very difficult for much of Connecticut to really warm sector (outside of Fairfield County).

could see some strong storms into southwest CT tomorrow. maybe some transient supercells

Looks like we're going out like a lion!!!!!

maybe some localized strong storms Monday for western areas

quite unstable too

The Daily Climate Reports I think may have that info. EDIT: I meant NOWdata https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box Here's BDL

This is a pretty complex situation. Almost looks like the wedge of cold is more focused up around 925mb and not even much wedging at the sfc. Hi-res has the coldest temperatures in the higher elevations versus within the valleys...opposite of what you would expect. Big key may be what happens with temperatures Friday night because there doesn't seem to be much room for temperatures to rise at all north of the boundary.

If there are maps worse than snow maps...it's ice maps I would actually much rather snow maps than ice maps....ahhh I can't believe I said that. Someone put soap in my mouth

@40/70 Benchmarknot sure hw much you're into datasets/updates but ERSSTv6 data has been released. Read through a good bit of the paper...really interesting stuff. I know you don't do much with ENSO pre-1950 but it seems this version helps greatly with some of the uncertainty and error with SST data pre 1950.

Yup. My aunt lives like a 1 minute drive from the airport. When I was living with her I used to go on walks and walk along 75 briefly and then turn towards Old County Rd. You could easily feel the difference in temperatures from some of those side roads versus along 75.

A good portion of Windsor Locks right along 75 there is nothing but concrete and pavement lol.

Yup...not looking forward to them pulling off 83 while its 52, cloudy, and drizzle here

Never!!!

This is bull****. The deep south got a bigger winter storm than we did and now the PAC NW will get a better severe event than we will this summer. May as well just skip summer and try luck with next winter

Going to see a few nasty S-N moving supercells in Washington State today. Don't know what the record hail size is in Washington but I say they break it today. There will be a >2" hail report...book it

Ground temperatures get way too much credit. The ground is not water, the temperature of the ground can adjust very quickly to air temperature and can be heavily influenced by precipitation. If the air temperature is 38 and the ground temperature is the same or whatever and you have heavy precipitation falling, and in this case snow, both temperatures will adjust quickly. Will it impede some accumulation? Certainly...but it is going to be a very insignificant amount of accumulation it impedes.

I feel like you'll have to really be a good like 75 miles into the warm sector to maximize the true warmth. There is a great deal of llvl moisture along and even just behind the front. If this was late May we could probably mix that out but that's a struggle in late March.

Since I do like being technical, the more correct process here would be warm front lifting northward, then becoming stationary, and potentially retreating south as what would then be a cold front.