weatherwiz

The other thing with Monday is there could be some robust convection moving across the Gulf Coast states late Sunday and early Monday...that is going to rob moisture north. Something that may even hold back accumulations within portions of the Ohio Valley (Indiana/Ohio)

What about solar activity...there is a correlation between solar activity and blocking so I wonder what, if any, influence solar activity is having. Perhaps it isn't necessarily influencing the structure of the blocking but it very well could be. The atmospheric chemistry isn't something I understand well (though that was a fun course...wish we got more out of that class) but chemical reactions occurring within the stratosphere could be helping to shape the stratospheric PV. Just kind of thinking out loud here. I wish I could retake atmospheric chemistry...that wasn't the name of the class...maybe it was remote sensing but that was interesting stuff.

This is what I was trying to say Friday...maybe what we perceive as "great" or "perfect" isn't so great after all. I mean how many times can something look "great" and not produce before one takes a step back and says, "well geeze, maybe this isn't as good as thought"? But we can keep labeling these great because at some point the pattern will produce and it will elicit, "it finally worked" or "told ya so" :or "its all about patience"...but this is aiken to playing the lotto and playing the same numbers over and over, eventually the number is going to hit. We are probably skewed because of the larger storms than can be a product of these patterns, but what is the return rate on these patterns? If you were to play these patterns 100 times and maybe only 5 times does it elicit a big storm or a snowy period...can you really say the pattern is "great"? I mean the big question is...what is that return rate on this pattern and what return rate constitutes "great"?

I only looked quickly, but verbatim I think the Euro is too warm there

just had a mini snowicane here

Flakes falling here

might have to move the Cowboys playoff g....oh wait

Agreed, I have doubts on how far north too. In fact, with this system I think focusing on the edge of the precip shield is very misleading to thinking there is a "north trend". The bulk of the QPF is going to be tied into where forcing/ascent is strongest and that is in the mid-Atlantic. IMO, we would have to see a good couple hundred mile shift north of the ENTIRE system for anyone in SNE to even sniff out flakes.

Obviously any farther north track would negate that but I would presume there will be a sharp cutoff on the northern edge between something like 2-3'' and barely 2-3 flakes lol

Might be mostly virga though verbatim

yeah certainly could sneak in something this evening. Kind of reminds me of some weeks back when we had those heavier snow showers moving through during rush hour

A friend of mine flew into BDL from Florida last night and said there was a quite a bit of turbulence upon approach.

Not sure if anything can sneak into southwestern Connecticut tomorrow late afternoon, but there could be some good squalls moving across parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey though this is more likely too far southwest to give anyone here a shot.

Probably a good cross wind going on there for the main runway. What kind of flights were diverted? Could be too big for the smaller runway there.

That was a wild month for sure...that winter/spring were pretty crazy. We even had some smaller accumulating snow events early in April and I remember we even had a looming threat during like the 3rd week of April which I think higher elevations of NNE cashed in on...and then a month later 5/15/18 happened

Anytime you have confluence around and it could be a major player, you can't let your guard down, even inside of 24-30 hours. This rings true whether models are consistent with a big hit or something more of a brush. Remember back in I want to say winter of 2017-2018, I think it was second half of winter, there was that big storm and models underestimated the confluence and what was looking like a good 1-2 feet for Connecticut ended up being a Long Island special.

The second half of the month seems much more favorable to me than this period was for us given how the structure of the NAO may evolve. I know you and Will touched upon that last evening, but I always felt our prospects are much higher when the core anomalies associated with the -NAO are poking into Greenland or you have a nice anomaly center just east-northeast of the tip of Greenland...assuming you have some cooperation from the PAC...a terrible PAC with this look can screw us greatly.

I don't totally mind it but it's usually on full blast

I've done it when it's super cold...like single digits or below zero but my girlfriend also likes to sleep with the fan on so I usually bury myself under the blankets. Heat is set to 69.

Cold is cold...tired of having to wear a winter hat every day inside. Sometimes I even sleep with it on

This is the type of -NAO I like to see. What it comes to NAO correlating with snow here, especially larger storms…forget what the raw index is, structure is important and this is what you want to see

wouldn't that be funny

Just imagine...6-10'' of snow in Atlanta with EF3's ripping across Florida

Is it me or does it seem like local governments or investing less finances into winter mode resources? For example, growing up in West Hartford, even after large snowstorms, the roads were in great conditions very quickly. Meanwhile you went over a town to Hartford...disaster. While I haven't lived in West Hartford in several years, I am still there often and even after some winter events...it doesn't seem like they care for the roads like they used to.

This right here. There is a lot of money to be had in the private sector of meteorology and people/businesses willing to pay good $$$$ for it. In that sector, nobody wants to hear words like "Potential", "This looks god but....", They don't want or care about the ifs. This is where the confidence is the forecaster is immense and how the forecast is communicated is huge.. If they wanted to or cared about the "ifs" they could just get that freely from social media or other outlets. They are paying for skill and paying someone to differentiate for them when there is real potential/concern versus the "hype". If you're in the private sector and forecast for people or a business that can have operations severely impacted by winter weather and everyime you're telling them the pattern looks favorable for snow because of pretty blue colors and they start changing operations to prepare...you're going to cost businesses a ton of money and have some very angry people to deal with.