weatherwiz

I sacrifice Zadorov

yeah that's something I've thought about too. When we have an abundance of shortwaves it creates chaos with guidance and one reason for the struggle in the short-term but on the other hand...you would think with the abundance of shortwaves that eventually regression to the mean will work in our favor.

I am becoming extremely impatient and quite honestly, I still have a sour taste in my mouth from the last February event where I thought for sure I would get around a foot and only ended up with 3.5''. Maybe it has become a defense mechanism to just poo-poo extended range when it looks good for fear of being disappointed but I really am fed up with these garbage winters.

I certainly hope so! I am dying to do this Fair

Agreed on that but more often than not, storms come at the onset of pattern changes. When we get lucky, we can get the pattern to setup right and drill us with multiple storms in the span of weeks but that's not what this upcoming period looks to be. Look at even the last several winters...we have been in a terrible rut where we're lacking cold air ahead of storms but we have no problem getting cold in here on the backside of systems but once the next system approaches, we warm. This upcoming stretch looks like we get very cold, but lack an active pattern. There is that one period in the 10th-12th where teleconnections seem like they could line up to favor a storm within the East but the overall pattern seems absent of an abundance of shortwave energy.

These are two totally different scales and aren't comparable. Convection is mesoscale and severe is generally extremely localized.

These two statements are said 2-3x per winter and more with the second statement.

I often debate with myself...would I prefer an active period where you get several events but they're small to medium or one event that is a blockbuster. I never had a good answer for this. The blockbuster is great, especially because of the adrenaline rush leading up to and during the event, but that eventually does wear off and if there is nothing else going on...well it kind of sucks lol. I'm the same way with summer...do I want an active period with many thunderstorm events (mostly just general thunderstorms with lack of severe storms) or would I prefer one higher end event? I think I lay more towards active versus blockbuster winter event/higher end severe weather but it's tough lol

depends on the day

You obviously want to see good/favorable patterns modeled in the extended range but it's also important to get an idea of what is going on within the modeled pattern...how are things moving. This looks pretty meh to me outside of a few periods.

I have...looks boring. Not much in the way of shortwaves moving through...just elongated strung out vorticity and flow doesn't seem to offer much room for any type of amplification. The best shots for anything really are the period Tip highlighted and the 10th-12th. Outside of that it looks dry and boring. But the 10th-12th shouldn't be slept on.

Cold, dry, and boring...everyone's favorite. At least it will be staying light out later each day and we'll soon be gaining light in the morning.

Looks like another round of significant LES upcoming otherwise Zzzzzzzz Gotta wonder if we actually see the Lakes freeze moving through January

Too this point though, at some point we all have to go back to the drawing board and better define or fine-tune what distinguishes a good pattern versus a bad pattern. I mean let's be honest here, over the last 2-3 years how many times has it been said, "the upcoming pattern looks great" and yet nothing happens. I mean the batting average on this is probably less than .100 and probably much less than that. Maybe there is just too much emphasis on patterns when it comes to defining not just storm potential but storm elements because at the end of the day, what's more important is how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern which can be independent on the pattern itself. During the spring, the severe crowd loves seeing big troughs digging into the West in April/May but deep trough digging into the West don't always correlate to widespread, high end severe weather events.

I beat the cold! Had to go outside earlier for a few minutes and wore Thermal socks, thermal PJ bottoms, jeans, a tee-shirt, then my light green jacket, hoodie, heavier jacket, a hat, facemask, and thick winter gloves. Didn't feel any cold hahaha Wiz - 1 Fake cold - 0 F/OT

90 is much better than this. I get those working outside don't like it but at least there are measures you can take to reduce the likelihood of heat related illness. But even when its hot, you can still be outside...you can find shade if needed, drink plenty of water, hit up the beach. There is nothing you can do in this type of cold...even if you dress in 50 layers...what can you possible do outside? Not too mention you have to put on 50 layers just to go outside for 5 seconds then the second you get inside establishments you die because the heat is cranked.

I hope this is the coldest airmass we'll see this winter. This is brutal...not fun at all.

Snowing here...already starting to whiten things up a bit. Hope the roads won't be bad later, heading to Hartford for the Wolf Pack game. And by bad...a rain drop or a snow flake somehow results in 800 accidents now.

I forget what year it was...but it was one of the years when the Wolf Pack were changed to the stupid Whale and they had the outdoor game in East Hartford....BRUTAL....BRUTAL. It was like 50F two days before and then the Arctic front came through. It was in the teens that day with strong winds. The game was 7:00 and I got there at like Noon. I couldn't even finish my 40 tailgating and by the time the game started I was frozen. Many of us spent much of the game in the bathroom where there was some heat. The game also went into OT. It took me like 3 days to warmup. I don't ever think I'll do an outdoor hockey game again because of this.

True story. The Thanksgiving prior to that seasons playoff, I got the biggest piece of the wish bone from the turkey. I forgot who I went against to pull it apart, but I got the biggest piece. Not sure why I did this but my wish was for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. During that game against the Raiders when the play happened with Brady and it went under review, I went to this little bottle that I kept the piece of the wish bone in and said, “remember my wish”. Moments after, they ruled Brady was in the process of throwing the ball and ruled it an incomplete pass. Well the rest is history. looking back, I deserve a super bowl ring.

One of my brothers is a raiders fan and went to that game. Security had to escort him out because fans were throwing beers, cups, and food at him. I wanted to go to the game but he said I was too young and it was too cold

Back when we used to get snow. Good times

I always forget that Titans game is in October…for some reason I always think it happened on Thanksgiving.

Oh I know what game he’s talking about. The game against Miami the pats defense shut Miami down and the fans were throwing snowballs in the air

Wasn’t that against the Titans? When he threw for like 5 or 6 TDs.