weatherwiz

It's definitely a concern, no doubt. But we have to start somewhere. When you're in such a rut like we're in, often things have to do perfectly....that philosophy even extends outside of weather. Look at sports, when teams are rolling sometimes it seems no matter what they do it works out beautifully but when you're in a rut...nothing can seem to go right.

Would like to continue seeing this as we get to our climatological peak period. Get this pattern to remain and we we continue to see wavelengths change in response to the season...sometimes that can be all the difference.

Comparing model runs beyond 180 hours and coming to the conclusion that the models "lost" the storm because 0z had a storm coming up the coast while 6z is 300 miles offshore is a head scratcher. I also don't understand how the OP can be defined as "bad" just because the SLP maps don't show something. But I think people know that and well...this is a good place to vent frustrations But when that bleeds into interrupting good discussion then it gets old.

Been assessing that this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another scenario, particularly in the valleys where it takes an awful long time to mix out. Hell, there even seems to be enough to keep some colder air wedged in even at 925. Some pretty strong WAA going on too so I wouldn't be surprised if the degree of QPF is a bit underdone too.

Portions of northern New England could get a nice event at the end of the week followed by another round of epic LES Friday/weekend.

If that snow map were to verify I will cancel all May 1st threads for good, never make a severe thread again, or ever mention the word thunderstorm or severe ever again.

Oh how we pray

It's been soooo long since we've seen a storm form off the Carolina coast and move up the coast far enough offshore to pound us. This is what I want to see...tired of seeing these storms blossom in the TN Valley or interior mid-Atlantic.

See what 12z GEFS show but at least looking at 0z I think I would feel a little better if that trough axis was modeled to be positioned a bit farther east into our region versus into the Ohio Valley. Until we shake this ridiculous regime of trough axes digging into the OV with cyclogenesis occurring well to our southwest we're going to risk cutters. But the position and orientation of the PNA ridge does seem encouraging at least

Terrific post. There is alot to be desired on how weather events are communicated but when it comes to relaying uncertainty, it's a whole new level of challenge. When it comes to most of our weather events (maybe this can apply across the country too) they aren't textbook setups. Most of our winter weather events are textbook KU's, most of our severe weather events aren't associated with EML's, and with our synoptic rainfall events...there is just too much with local terrain that influences flooding. I'm sure this is done behind the scenes but when forecasting these type of events and assessing the potential, just like you said, you can't dismiss because of past failures but you want to understand why the events that failed did and why the ones that produced ended up producing. But this is easier said than done because these setups aren't that textbook and more times than not they come down to how things evolve in the mesoscale.

Forgot one 5. The potential hazard type box on the SHARPpy soundings like you get on COD. "PDS tornado", "TORNADO", "WEAK TORNADO", "SEVERE", "MARGINAL SEVERE", The twitter severe community has a field day with this stuff

Nice line southeast of Long Island...actually several lightning strikes

The following products needs to be abolished from existence: 1. Supercell composite parameter, this includes these ridiculous accumulated supercell composite energy or whatever they're called maps I've seen floated around 2. Significant tornado parameter 3. Snow maps 4. wind maps

One thing too is I think the main sfc low development and strengthening ended up occurring much slower than what it looked a few days ago. I know Oceanstwx mentioned this but one factor favoring widespread gusts was going to be the increasing pressure gradient from the deepening sfc low as it moved to our northwest...but this is occurring much more slowly. This also could be a factor in keeping the valley wedged in...the sfc warm front really struggling. I think I made a post Saturday but I theorized we could see a wonky looking sfc warm front. But looks like there is progresses and starting to see the valley mix out now.

Any line is going to impact Rhode Island and far southeastern Mass.

The way things have been going, average is essentially epic for us

I always hold hope though that we will see an epic stretch from mid January to mid February. It's gotta happen again soon, right?

we're almost at the next phase of winter which is, "don't worry, the pattern is changing around Jan 1 but then once we get closer to Christmas that Jan 1 then becomes the 10th to the 15th".

That's what I am wondering too but it's kind to decipher. I mean looking at mesoanalysis it's possible the HRRR is too aggressive with how far east the core of the LLJ goes. I do think it will be east but not to the extent the HRRR has. Plus, even know the core is a bit east we still get decent winds back to the CT River

Touche Yeah my jaw dropped when he said that. I was able to watch the whole process happen right outside my window. It didn't seem that complicated, they had a machine which like cut the tree into segments and after each segment was cut some device just lifted it (but over the neighbors house...that was uneasy to watch) into the truck. I think it took a whole couple hours per tree but I believe they did two days of work (they cut the stumps out the second day).

100% agreed. And through my mini meltdown there, what I was trying to get at is this... If you have an individual who is a decision maker who is always going to hedge towards making a decision geared towards the "Worst case scenario" spectrum, then what is the point of having such an individual in place? I would think what one would want in a decision maker is someone who is going to make a sound, educated decision and someone that you would trust their judgement to make the best decision as possible when uncertainty is on the table. But if its always "worst case scenario", doesn't that defeat the purpose of having someone like that in place?

See what happens east of 91 across Connecticut in the next 1-2 hours. Getting convection (though don't see any lightning) developing south of Long Island. 925mb winds increasing to over 50 knots now with a few hundred J of MUCAPE.

Great input. This is great information and I think to the bolded...this is leading to a huge question in all of this, are people making decisions based on fear on any fallout should something happen or are people making sound, educated decisions based on the information provided? It seems too me at least, the trend has been to make these decisions based on fear of fallout versus anything else. And is that a good thing or a bad thing?

The communication definitely needs to involve and I think it just starts within the industry itself. The NWS relies heavily on local media and private sector to communication risks and to do so in a manner that is understandable to the public. For example, lets use the SPC Convective Outlook and probabilities...the public doesn't know what any of that means. So those on TV, in the media, private sector is going to communicate that information so the public can understand it. The second aspect of the communication is from the field to the public. One of my professors (who used to do TV as well) used to say something that really stuck with me. He really meant this more for TV (since that's what he did but I think it could apply all around). He would say when you're on TV you develop a following and an audience. People are watching you (the same people) day in and day out and are planning their days based on what you say. With that, the words you use...they start to develop meaning and people will start correlating those words. Certain words have strong meanings and if those words get overused, they start to lose their meaning and lose their impact. For example, if you say "oh wow it is going to be a beautiful day today". Beautiful is a strong word. But if you're using beautiful when its Sunny and say 50 and then again when its Sunny and 75 or Sunny and 85...that's a wide difference in how people would prepare. But if you save that word and use it for a specific say threshold...when you do use it...people will know right away what you mean. There is no guessing. Let's use a weather event. If you say, "we're looking at damaging winds of 50-60 mph today with downed trees, tree limbs, and power outages" that is a powerful statement, but what does that really mean? If that potential is something that is going to be more isolated or localized...that needs to be reinforced. But with these events that isn't being reinforced, so when the times come that we actually get something of that magnitude, people aren't going to be prepared because those words...that statement has lost meaning because every time that is said it's only localized impact. When communicating impactful weather events, whether its a more localized impact or widespread, that differences needs to be stressed.

Yup that was something which added into the coast for our neighbor. they were two huge pine trees and had to get some massive crane thing to cut the trees in segments from top down and then lift them onto a truck. They even had to close down a portion of the road to do it.