weatherwiz
-
Posts
77,471 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by weatherwiz
-
That line that rolls through tomorrow evening is going to pack a punch in terms of rainfall intensity. Forcing and dynamics are enough to where there may be some embedded thunder/lightning but instability is quite limited. It is possible maybe within Fairfield County in southwestern Connecticut could see a localized damaging wind gust. Should see some gusty winds though for most out ahead of that line...nothing wild though...25-35 mph.
-
I really love how you snapped two photos; one with the shop signs and one without. It's amazing the differences in the contrast of the photos but the bottom one really stands out to me. That is such a great capture.
-
Not sure I would describe it as a phantom storm by the gfs. It's a product of phasing...the GFS is more favorable with both streams and promotes a better likelihood for phasing. It's not like a GFS solution doesn't make sense. If the GFS solution didn't make much sense then I would agree it is phantom but it wouldn't take much from the euro to output something closer to the GFS...and on the other hand it wouldn't take much from the GFS to lessen this idea.
-
Verbatim more of a Sunday ordeal
-
I don't blame you I mean I am all ready for full out Spring but if there is a chance or something looks good...why the hell not. I do think one huge difference between now and what we've seen this winter is such an intense system that is going to end up southwest of Greenland. This is going to re-define the whole structure of the Arctic and this is helping to enhance a PAC which wasn't too terrible looking but going from meh to something noteworthy
-
I don't know if I really like comparing March setups or March potential to like December, January, or even February. The wavelengths really start changing during the first half of the month and we start introducing the hemispheric shift between seasons...lots more chaos involved - which can go good or bad and sometimes the change in wavelengths can mean all the difference.
-
I think in a way, this mid-week system helps set the stage for next weeks potential...maybe the time spacing is too far apart, however, I think this system will at least aid in the shaping of the pattern around the Arctic (AO).
-
Basically the central Great Plains into the upper-Midwest is going to get their best winter storm/blizzard of the system now...if it can happen to them it can happen to us
-
Tomorrow's water vapor imagery/satellite presentation and evolution is one that would go into textbooks for a basic meteorology course. That is going to be one dynamic system with widespread blizzard conditions...looks like the snow weenies in MSP get rewarded for their shitty winter. I bet there is a strip of like 12-15" of snow...that is a monster banding signal. Wisconsin going to get smoked Wednesday...travel will be about halted there
-
a few flakes falling outside
-
I can feel the cold seeping in. Time to make some hot chocolate after the end of the first period.
-
Only one more full month until May That wind is ripping out there
-
Could be an active March across the deep South for severe, especially moving towards mid-month with some signals for more expansive area of 60F dews and maybe even pushing upper 60's into the Gulf Coast. But if we can keep the theme for strong lows to develop downwind of the southern Rockies and get some assistance with NAO/AO, there is plenty of cold still nearby so if we can get any of those lows to pass more towards the mid-Atlantic we have a shot.
-
Not too mention they had multiple tropical hits too in the Fall.
-
Arkansas/Louisiana going to get crushed Tuesday. That is going to be one powerful squall line...gusts 70-90???
-
Didn’t encounter any snow this morning. Was slightly worried it may be a bit icy but roads were fine. Had to rush to the emergency vet at 2:30 this morning
-
It's a stigma that just won't go away. But I mean how many people out there are creating forecasts based off of 6z/18z runs? I would probably wager not many...well maybe in the Pacific/Alaskan/Hawaiian time zones. But for the most part, by the time the 6z/18z runs start coming out, most forecasts are probably already complete...maybe if there is potential for local storm impact there are some tweaks made. Maybe 6z/18z are used more for the nowcast/short-term
-
Was just about to post...could see a decent low topped squall line signal here Wednesday. Some big timing differences but looks like some pretty steep lapse rates and unseasonably moist llvl theta-e advecting up the coast. Could see severe risk as far north as northern New Jersey
-
I mean there could be some risk for general thunder with any eastward propagating troughs and we happen to be in the warm sector.
-
Have to remember that this time of year and in these patterns...whatever MOS has (even NBM because I am still not convinced the NBM is great) to add +5 (at least) to daytime highs...this applies all over the country
-
Agreed...I was just stating that because of the progressive nature of the pattern whatever anomalous warmth we see probably won't be sustained.
-
When it comes to anomalous spring time warmth in our region I just exercise extreme caution. I agree with you the teleconnectors and classical indicators are there, however, as you are well aware this time of year little mesoscale and smaller-scale nuisances can outweigh any of those signals. This is why you can't just run off H5 anomalies...H5 could be baking us with 570dm+ heights but the surface could yield an entirely different story.
-
I don't see this March being an atypical New England March. We're going to have mild periods (perhaps even unseasonably warm for a day or two at a time) but we'll also have our share of colder periods. Looks like we could be dealing with a pretty progressive weather pattern heading into March...but again, not totally uncommon for March.
-
Back patio FINALLY ice free! Dog is very happy. Still has trouble walking within the yard though because of the snow but hopefully this will help get him comfortable with going to the bathroom outside more and not inside.
-
Outside with the dog before bed and it’s pretty nice out still…wow
