weatherwiz

what a gradient

Another round of light freezing rain rolling through now. Probably about same intensity as what rolled through a few hours ago. Just enough to probably net a glaze but nothing more.

I was going to say...good luck getting your mail

Wouldn't be surprised to see a TOR within southern NJ today. May even see a decent amount of lightning working northeast across SNE

Light freezing rain here

Just went outside with the dog. 4” down with a light glazing on top

Man this whole system is wild. So many tornado warnings, severe warnings, flash flood warnings; including 4 ongoing Flash Flood Emergencies

there is def going to be some sig icing somewhere. Where it stays 29-30 is going to be problematic.

0z HRRR is pretty concerning

Looks like more rippage on the way

2" on the nose!!!

Coming down nice and steady out there. Actually pretty impressive based on radar presentation. Some heavier echos back towards BDL which should be sliding through soon...hoping to get under those.

Yeah I don't know if I've ever seen that many It's literally like a 500+ mile swath of FFWs.

By the time the dry slot really begins filling in that warmth aloft may already be racing in. Mesoanalysis doesn't look too encouraging for a rapid fill in of the dry slot though ulvl divergence seems to be increasing a bit. That is also a tremendous amount of convection in the Tennessee Valley, that has to be having some negative impact for us now. By the time we really get into favorable dynamics for us, it will be crush city for NNE.

First flakes starting to fall

Those are some anomalies in the south-central Plains next week...high temps 40 to 45°F below average

Not missing much. I wonder if this power outages is impacting the chiefs too

That’s how it felt outside my house last night while the radar was green all around me and nothing was falling

You could do it. We’ll have chances right through the start of March

I’m throwing in the towel on me getting 60” from the stretch between February 2-March 20. BOOOOOOOO

Would be nice. But I'm not going to complain too much about these last few events, we have to take what we can get. We wanted an active weather pattern and we've certainly got it. If the next 6 weeks is a slew of 3-6" events...I'll gladly take it.

Glad you posted 3.5"...that's about what I was getting but I didn't really have an accurate way to measure. The yard still had a good solid 1-2" of iced snow so I used a table I have but it doesn't have a snow board so I wasn't sure if I would have been off by a bit...but when I measured I got about 3.5". I should have went with the 3-6 I wanted too

Yeah not sure what was going on with that.

This one had a lot of flags present, plus we have a long-standing history of knowing how these events roll. Unless you’re into the heaviest banding for a longer duration, go low. Once again Bufkit, NAM, GFS, and HRRR (as we got into its range) did a phenomenal job illustrating how this would pan out. Now, bufkit isn’t the holy gospel, if the model doesn’t have banding go over that location say, well then it will be way off, however, that’s something you factor in when making a forecast. Anyways, just like last week, most locations on bufkit literally had 2-3 hours of heavy snow with rates ~1”+ per hour, outside that window rates were barely even 0.50” per hour and hardly even above 0.2”. QPF maps have to be used with extreme caution in these fast moving events too. You really have to nail down, of that QPF how much is being maximized efficiently?

Not sure I even ended up with 4-5” here but anyways, I think this storm went about as well as it could have forecasting wise. I love these storms because there are so many different processes involved and it really takes a good bit of time to digest everything and then try and simulate in your head how things will play out.