weatherwiz

Surprisingly, yes. One of these winters we're going to cash in big. I mean the backlog is going back 3-4 years now. I'm still waiting for those "D10 EPS looks good" patterns to produce from 3 years ago.

Would be interested in those stats as well and I 100% agree with you. I can't image us being dry very long in that sort of regime. The one exception I can think of is if we have an anomalous Southeast ridge with HP off the Southeast coast (que La Nina). Obviously in the summer this would be good for showers/thunderstorms but given the lack of instability during the winter that wouldn't be the case.

Maybe a below-average precip winter won't be the worst thing. I mean we have had some horrible luck with some of the above-average precip winter's lately not equating to above-average snow (at least for the region as a whole). With the regime we're in above-average precip seems to be coinciding with warmer winter patterns...below-average would probably indicate colder pattern and then we cash in with whatever precip maker we get. Disclaimer: This is somewhat of a tongue-in-check post but somewhat serious too.

I don't think so. I think that area is climatologically favorable October/early November.

Need to start getting some strong systems into the PAC NW (which the long-range GFS shows). This could certainly help ripple the pattern up a bit across the CONUS.

Nobody is going to be able to give out chocolate...it's all going to melt.

I may even go out trick-or-treating if its like this.

ehhh only takes one to get things moving/changing. I recall some winters over the past few decades where the pattern was crap and then things changed quickly with a couple recurving typhoons. This isn't an area I really know much about but I know @Ginx snewx has talked about this many times over the years and sniffed out some of these changes from recurving typhoons.

I just revert to some Bob Ross videos if I want my color fix.

I think the whole obsession with colors is very weird but the colors look pretty meh to me. Some trees are more vibrant but for the most part they look like someone left skittles in their pocket for too long and the colors started to fade from body warmth.

I can’t believe these trees are bare already. I swore they were still quite full even just a few days ago

Yup...great point and thanks for adding that in as I was just talking about diurnally. This has been mentioned many times by various posters, but as you know, at least for our region, our degree of warming is greatest with overnight departures and its easy to see and understand why that is from a chemistry and thermodynamic perspective.

The northward shift is very real. Was talking about this with someone the other day but you look at accounts of how winter's were, even as far south as Washington DC several hundred years ago compared to now...it's insane. Sure there were accounts of some very warm winters there and such but the frequency now is much greater than it was back then.

Even when we've had some below-average temperature airmasses (using 850 as a metric here), if we're getting Sun we are still finding a way to get very close to average (for daytime high). At some point you would have to think (or hope) we reach a tipping point. Could you imagine though even if we see another 3-5 years of warmth at the pace we're at? I've mentioned this several times over the years but one key metric for me is going to see how the globe responds once we flip the AMO to the negative phase. Even when the AMO does flip it will take several years to probably reflect on the global state but if we're deep into the negative AMO phase and still shattering warm records...then I think we're in big trouble. But we probably wouldn't even be deep into the negative AMO probably for another 30 years or so. I would imagine the AMO should start transitioning towards the end of this decade.

I think what's interesting too is when we're dealing with negative departures, it's not necessarily a product of just the airmass itself. It is usually related to either extensive cloud cover and/or precip or an unfavorable wind direction (though this ties more to coastal areas and is time-of-year dependent).

Outside of some troughing over the Bearing Straight (which isn't really anything to write home about) its just anomalous ridging over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., Europe, and Russia on the GEFS. Just glancing but seems to me like the PV is stronger than usual for this point in the season? Something to watch moving deeper through the Fall. That is some mind blowing warmth in the Arctic region. Going to need something to really shake up the hemispheric pattern and something of subsidence. Probably going to need a few recurving typhoons.

The last 3-4 years have been wild. We're either getting too much rain or can't buy any rain.

I've seen pictures...NO thank you. I have no clue how people can live there, let alone sleep. Not sure if this is true but I saw a video once of one of those spiders (maybe not Huntsman but it was massive...like Jupiter size) and it was crawling on the back of someone's car at a stop light and snuck into the inside of the car. That would not end well for me.

Not sure what their multiplication rate is but I could envision their population growing quickly in the Northeast. Once they get some nests established, boom it's off to the races. I don't like to take my chances with the "they don't bother you if you don't bother them stuff". I think that is a bunch of voodoo. Just like with bees, "if you don't bother them or swat at them they won't sting you". BULL**** that's a bunch of BS. Every time I've been stung by bees I wasn't doing anything except standing there. When I got stung by white faced hornets that was because I put my hand into a bush trying to get a frisbee not knowing there was a nest. But I've swatted and ran away from bees thousands of times and have never been stung once doing that. Spiders like to bite people in their sleep for some reason so don't need them crawling into bed, biting, and then running away. I also hope we don't start seeing cross breeding between spiders and get some new species that is extremely dangerous and aggressive.

I'm nervous one of those suckers is going to find its way inside. These things are getting massive too. My friend thinks the one I saw the other day may have been pregnant given its size. When I opened the garage door moments later, I saw another one at the bottom of the door, though its possible it may have been the same one. My friend finding a black widow in his apartment has me a bit creeped out. There is no doubt in my mind those types of spider are migrating northwards. If it's happening with ticks and other insects then its absolutely happening with spiders.

Finally the pest people are coming Thursday. This is getting outrageous with the spiders...they're running rampant everywhere. That massive wolf spider outside the other day, the one that was in my coffee filters, a few weeks back I had a spider crawl on my phone while I was watching stuff in bed, a few days after that one was running at me on the sheets, there were two in the office room the other day and I can't find them, and there is this tiny one on the ceiling and it looks like its humping the ceiling. Looks like one of those tiny jumping ones though I hope its not a baby wolf spider. They better spray every square inch of the house, both inside and outside. Don't care if we have to stay somewhere overnight.

May sit outside tonight and watch the Bruins game. Would get a little fire going but clearly not doing that in this state. Sucks the game is so late but at least it will be pretty nice out.

No, not required for the program there. At least I don't believe so. I had sent over all my materials and got the letter of acceptance and it didn't mention anything about it. But I should double check into this.

Been wanting to do this for several years but figured now is the time before I get any older and have kids but I'm going to start the masters program at Mississippi State University online in Fall of 2025 Just debating on whether I want to try and get it done in 2 years or draw it out longer. Anyways, pretty excited. The courses look super fun (just hopefully not crazy math intensive or heavily involving programming or I screwed )

I didn’t but my brothers girlfriend did