weatherwiz

cloud tops within the eye warming quickly

I think I jinxed it, about 15 minutes after I said there hasn't been no new convection for a while, convection started to blossom on the east side. Not only is the convection starting to wrap around the west side but looks like the convection on the east side is even expanding a bit towards the southeastern side.

I am curious to see what happens as it continues to pull away from the Yucatan but like what had just been posted, shear/dry air are definitely having some impact here. But the structure of this was just so good going into the ERC we'll just have to see how much the dry air/shear can disrupt the entire circulation. Haven't seen any new convection flare in a while so that's good.

damn...

10-15 foot surge now forecast for Tampa Bay...no words.

It's insane how steadfast the GFS has been on a landfall extremely close to Tampa, even when it's ensembles were farther South. I mean a good chunk of guidance was always south but everything has been caving to the GFS op. I am scared for Tampa...can't imagine what those people are going through watching the updates.

Portions of I40 and I26 have been removed from google maps and GPS mapping. Going to be an absolute nightmare for those trying to navigate down that way. Who knows how long its going to take them to rebuild some of those stretches

What a freaking day. Actually felt hot, wish I had wore shorts instead of jeans. Was taking apart a fence panel and finished some staining and wow was I hot and sweaty. But I love that feeling, then stepping into the shower and feeling the warm water running down your skin and coalesce with the sweat and magic happens. The feeling afterwards…indescribable.

I can understand if you're from an area where that doesn't happen, it would be really cool to see. But if you live here...there is no appeal and they're an inconvenience when they fall. You have to clean them, they're slippery when wet, and they clog storm drains. They also mark up the cars.

Good, its creepy how giddy people get over the color of leaves. Yes, the leaves on the trees change colors every fall, nothing we haven't seen before. The same colors too.

north is definitely better

Yeah we'll have to see how far north that warm boundary gets tomorrow but right along that boundary could be a focus for some rotating storms. We certainly aren't going to see much in the way of Sun/heating tomorrow, but like you said...instability will be more synoptically driven. Shear will be pretty strong and enhanced along the boundary and that's a decent shortwave chugging through. Not expecting widespread activity but could see a few nasty cells along that boundary.

May actually see some locally strong-to-severe thunderstorms tomorrow. May see a marginal risk introduced either this afternoon or tonight.

September is really a transition month, the beginning of the month can certainly be on the very warm/humid side, however, it can just as easily be cool/breezy, especially moving through the second half of the month. As you said though, a phenomenal stretch, this could go down as one of the best September's in recent memory.

Absolutely, it's pretty wild how our view and expectations have been distorted. I mean take BDL for example, peak summer climo is like 86 for a high (maybe it went up to 87 with the new climo). Peak climo now for BDL is like just above 70 for a high and around 50 for a low. Climo is almost becoming irrelevant because there is just no more regression to the long-term mean.

Good to know!

Summer doesn't have to mean high heat/humidity though. This past decade has really distorted our perception of summer. There is no denying its been very comfortable from mid-August through now and its been phenomenal but its been very summer like. We're so used to summer meaning 90's and high humidity but that's not really the case.

I mean there will probably be some opportunity for frosts in the climatologically favored places. If we get any instances of high pressure overhead (which there are some hints) we'll certainly get some chilly nights. We're probably going to be looking at some crazy diurnal swings in the upcoming few weeks.

It's definitely a very warm look, those are some serious 850 anomalies, particularly across the northern tier of the country. We'll certainly get some cool shots and some chilly nights mixed in but the overall theme is going to be above-average.

Quite a bit of model uncertainty for the end of the week across the eastern third of the country.

About as much as the patriots offense averaged in the first half

I wish they added more blocks for the number of years you can input. I know with the temp maps on the climate division site you posted they increased the blocks from 20 to 30. I know you mainly focus on ENSO events post 1950 while I was going back to 1900, however, I am beginning to wonder if I should put any weight on forecasts using events prior to 1950. I don't want to abandoned studying patterns of ENSO events prior to 1950 but it is evident as daylight there is a major shift in how ENSO's behave over time...especially after the 1960's/1970's. For example, I stupidly went below-average temps for like the eastern third of the country last winter...but if I eliminated EL NIno events from before 1960 from my list, I probably wouldn't have done that.

I have to send a follow up email to PSL but a few months back the site I was using to make composites compared to the appropriate period stopped generating images. When I initially emailed them they said they were looking into it. This happened just before everything happened with the dog and just haven't followed up. I had some new ideas I wanted to try with the breakdowns based on ENSO/strength but have fallen really behind. I wish I either had significantly more time or was smart enough to learn programming and coding...that right there would go a long way in all this. But I wanted to start assessing previous ENSO events and pattern evolution on a weekly basis starting from like mid-Fall. What's becoming very challenging with using ENSO in seasonal forecasting though is, focusing on ONI and SST's alone just aren't cutting it anymore. ENSO events and how they are impacting atmospheric circulations are behaving much differently over the last 20-30 years. Obviously there needs to be some skepticism with that statement because when assessing events prior to 1950 much of the data is re-analysis and derived from ship data and there are huge gaps in data during the 2 world wars. But what I re-started back in the spring was creating a list of ENSO events for each of the following methods ONI ENS-ONI RONI I was then looking into SOI data and assessing the SOI and looking at SOI data for the following methods SOI from the Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) SOI from the University of East Anglia SOI from Long Paddock CPC SOI CPC Equatorial SOI The methods used to calculate the SOI are extremely similar, however, Long Paddock/Australia used a x10 multiplier and Long Paddock also uses a bit longer climo background. I think Long Paddock/Australia's method makes SOI assessment much easier. Then next looking into MEI. What sucks with MEI is v2 only dates to 1979. There is the extended version which dates to like the 1870's but I believe it stopped being updated in the 2000's.

Hope we keep this until November. Anyways, really starting to notice the loss of daylight now. Looked at the clock last night thinking it was like 9:00 and it was only 7:30 lol. At least though we're remaining mild at night. Was outside with shorts until the end of the SNF game...pretty wild for me.

Very much too far out to take it serious, but if you look at that synoptic evolution, that's exactly what you want to see so can't totally discard this one yet.