weatherwiz

Wanted to post this last night but forgot. I was outside with the dog at like 9:30 last night and it was CHILLY. There is nothing fun or refreshing about temperatures in the 40's or 50's. If you're going for a walk or doing some activity, sure its not terrible but if you're just looking to sit and relax...NOPE that doesn't work, it's too cold. Nothing enjoyable about that at all. If its in the 60's or 70's at night with some humidity...that is perfect, you can just sit there and relax and feel comfortable. Also, last night was the second time in a span of like 3 weeks there was a spider crawling on me in bed. A few weeks back I was laying in bed scrolling on my phone and a spider crawled across the screen, inches from my face. I didn't have my glasses on so I was unsure if it was a part of the video I was watching but I quickly jolted up and the spider was on the sheets. Last night, I'm scrolling on my phone and I see something crawling towards me on the blankets and it was ANOTER spider. I beat it with the blanket and my girlfriend was able to dispose of it.

I don't think I am going to get to a winter outlook this year (never even got to a review of mine from last year lol). Anyways, I have been going about composites and ENSO breakdowns in a totally different manner. I was doing something with La Nina...and since I go back to 1900 and the climate division maps only allow up to 30 inputs, obviously I can't input every event. So I just did one set from 1900-1950 and the other from 1951-present. But its all based off of the climatological period. For instance, if you change the climo period for the second map... I don't know what the point of this post was but was just doing something and the result made me go urghhh

Good point...also I often wonder if the +departures off the coast have been a culprit in shifting the baroclinic zone west...i.e. a contributor to our slew of depressing cutters.

I wish more discussion would take off with your HC posts. I find them extremely interesting and I think often times there is a tendency to forget the basics. The science and our understanding of the science has become so complex and often times we get caught up in these complexities instead of reverting to the basics. For example, with the HC or GWO, we have a damn good understanding of how these cells work and how these cells influence the weather. But we get too caught up in the modeling...always looking for the models to show "the change". This is especially true during the winter when we're all looking at D10 EPS and see the "Change". But instead of looking at models for the change, why not just assess how these cells are behaving in the present and short-term. These clues then can probably be used to have an idea of how "correct" the models are. just a thought that goes through my head now and then

There is something about your HC posts that just send tingles down my body.

This will hopefully be a huge learning curve and I'm sure the studies which will come out from this season should be a huge boost to tropical forecasting in the future. It will be curious to see if any of these signals being discussed now were evident or missed during pre-season analyses.

Going outside in like an hour to stain some garage siding. Kind of sucks losing so much daylight now...doesn't leave much time after the work day to do much outside. Not a huge job to do but want to get done while the weather is nice.

It is super difficult to get prolific/historic seasons...in any regards. Severe, winter, tropical. It is exceedingly difficult to get the dominos to fall perfectly. There probably is a reason for this too which probably can be proved via advanced atmospheric physics and all starting with the balancing equations. The atmosphere is always trying to be in balance which of course is why we have weather. If you have parameters, variables, etc. which are extremely favorable for one thing to happen, there are going to be a set of parameters, variables to try and balance, or cancel those out. Its when all these parameters are extremely volatile do we see extreme weather occur.

I thought your explanations were great and you hit the nail on the head, there more than likely are multiple factors at play. I'm sure the low shear/historically high SST's/OHC going into the season raised alot of concern, however, as you know these two factors don't necessarily dictate whether a season will be active/inactive. These are more fuel...they are energy. Like CAPE and convection, 5000 J of CAPE doesn't mean you will see thunderstorms. You need conditions and factors which favor tropical waves/disturbances and you highlighted very well why they have been absent.

Great stuff!

You also know it’s been bad when there haven’t been any naked swirls that get named for like 10 minutes driving up numbers but yeah this could end up being an active post-peak season so can’t sleep on it but that just leads into the mind set we get with winter and things not going well…”it looks like we get over the bump in 10 days”. We’re going to have to start seeing these changes occur in the present, not just on guidance 5-6-6+ days out. Granted, we are seeing some changes occur but is it going to be enough?

Aren't the official tropical outlooks created by inputting a slew of various parameters with applications of physics, incorporating climatology, and running simulations upon simulations to derive the forecasts? The hyper active forecasts seemed to rely on two major factors; 1) Decaying EL Nino and developing La Nina. 2) The record warm waters/OHC going through spring. We'll see what happens through the next 8 weeks, but let's say even if we tack on another 7-8 storms, maybe 75% of those achieve hurricane status, 1-2 of those become major, and we don't see any significant landfalling impacts and the season ends at this. Instead of folks admitting the forecast was off, Beryl will be used to justify because of ridiculously high ACE. That's ridiculous. There is no questioning Beryl was in the historic category, however, you can't use that one storm to define the entire season. I mean you can but the truth of the matter is that one storm was not reflective of the entire story. If you got 52 inches of snow during the winter (and your average is like 49'') but 25'' of that came within one storm, are you going to quantify the winter as "epic" because of that one storm. That one storm was not reflective of the season, it was reflective of short-term processes.

Want to go outside and stain some garage siding but afraid a thunderstorm will pop over my head. Should be fine in like an hour

too many

depressing people in here

Anyone else loving the newly added afternoon D3 SPC updates?

probably

Looks like the first half of September may be characterized by high pressure building in this week, FROPA next weekend as the high slides east, followed by another high pressure building in, and then eventually a front. The season is certainly transitioning. In the aggregate we'll probably end up above-average but there will be plenty of cool shots to hold those anomalies in check. But we'll see what happens...sometimes as we enter the transition seasons the medium/long range can go bonkers and overzealous with these high pressure systems and how much they dominate. Regardless, seeing this on the models is a strong indication the NH is beginning the seasonal transition.

When was the last time we had high pressure pretty much overhead for an entire week? There are definitely going to be some chilly nights next week, especially probably Monday and/or Tuesday with some large diurnal swings.

Certainly at 700mb

It's interesting how the GFS is with the "extremes". The GFS is known to overmix in certain airmasses and spit out absurd temperatures and it seems to struggle with overmixing too late in the season. Some of the GFS (MOS) numbers this week across the central states were pretty high. Then when it comes to cold it can often overdo the cold.

Next week has potential to be quite cool at night, especially in spots which radiate well but have to monitor the details with the high sliding through

Clouds here killed today.

"summer" just made hot chocolate

Wow no September thread yet? Usually a thread for the next month is made like 18 days out and the thread is 30 pages long before the month even starts