weatherwiz

Watch the outer Cape pull off 4-6'' of snow lol

I do buy a widespread light snow region wide and probably even 2-3'' for some. You still have a potent shortwave coming through and there is plenty of available moisture. H7 looks pretty saturated. I think we're also in the entrance region of ulvl jet streak which should contribute to some good divergence aloft.

Based on the last 4-5 years I would classify anything over 5'' as generational

This is such a beautiful way of putting it.

then puked in Will's car

Yeah those soundings are super tight for ATL. Was even looking that way around DFW though there seems to have been a trend back towards colder.

I feel like its a setup like that which will pan out The ones that get little attention 4 days out and then all of a sudden 2-3 days out you have a nice QPF field showing up. But that's a nice shortwave digging in

I wonder if there is a window Monday night to get some accumulating snow.

They could be in line for a decent freezing rain event but even if it is more sleet versus freezing rain that would be pretty disastrous for them I would think.

Don't they tend to be in a favorable spot for significant icing?

Atlanta shut down for days?

Has nothing to do with the models, the hype is driven by the people who share this stuff around on social media like Halloween Candy. I can't stand these posts, "This isn't a forecast but..." or "This isn't likely to happen but".....

How about some of this instead

Close the thread, close the blinds, see ya in May

that they do but there are instances there value isn't the best. I mean in the case of this event, they aren't telling us anything we don't already know. Sure you can look at it and come to the conclusion that the mean favors less or later phasing and little-to-no hit but even within the ensembles on this, they are yielding just as much spread. they aren't helping to reduce the spread here.

Not even in my dreams do they get hit

I don't even know if ensembles matter much at this point anymore. The only was we're going to get clarity on the southern stream shortwave and whether it is held back or not is going to be sampling in real time or probably not until like with 0z guidance tomorrow night. By then models should have an idea. I get the ENS can at least give you an idea of which way to lean but that is almost irrelevant in this case.

can make our own

This wind today is brutal

I need to go back to drinking 40's of Steel Reserve. No secret our winters have gone downhill since I stopped in 2018. When I get married, instead of throwing rice I'm going to throw 40's to everyone.

Who knows if it will at this point. I guess tomorrow we can probably just analyze water vapor and forget about models lol and late tomorrow night/Thursday morning monitor current conditions within Texas and Arkansas. If the warmer air is able to get as far north as Fort Worth or even northeast Texas, well the slower, held back southern vort will be the winner. Big bust potential here in the South

To steal a quote from the great Jack Edwards, "the euro with the point of the dragger in our throats and rips it out of our hands".

Given where we are now in the timeline, this Euro run was probably about as disastrous as you would want to see. There was not even a hint of anything slightly not encouraging from the euro...not what you wanted to see. Even if we saw something encouraging, albeit tiny we could have worked with that. I am lowering my bar from 24'' to 0''. Screw winter. time for May

Didn't MSP get much of that on like one storm too?

The southern stream is becoming kind of a pain. Hell, they're on the fringes of a winter storm within Teas, Arkansas, and Tennessee and that whole ordeal is uncertain. Fort Worth is in a WSW but they may end up on the warmer side (just barely) and avoid much wintry precip. The 78-96 hour window is always a challenging one it seems with guidance when it comes to phasing situations. Not sure if there are some changes to equations or physics within models during this period but it seems to be prone to higher uncertainty when we see some decent certainty in the 96-120 hr window. EDIT: changed the second uncertainty to certainty in last sentence