weatherwiz

I get that but sometimes it bleeds into great discussion. There are probably lots of people who read (but don't post or post much) who are really trying to learn and understand more. This is a phenomenal source for learning and understanding the weather but it gets diluted at times.

How do you think I feel in the Summer I make a thread for convection...just general thunderstorms with maybe a rogue severe storm or two and everyone is screaming bust because there are no EF3s or widespread destructive winds or widespread hail...NO SHIT....never said there was going to be.

Just saw the 12z euro...that makes more sense to me then what the GFS was doing. Long ways out but this reminds me of (2 winters ago...maybe 3) when they had the series of winter storms across the deep South and we got one to come up the coast. Sure the look is suppressed well into the Gulf Coast but I love how the baroclinic zone is setup off the coast. Count me as intrigued around the 23rd.

Something tells me the GFS is too far south and east with next week. I would bet ensembles are geared farther northwest

That is an extremely concerning look for the deep South next week, both GFS and Euro.

and an attached snow map

I am hoping that we kind of reset this pattern...not lose the pattern outright or go through a full out change but just relax it a bit with a few tweaks and then try again late month and February.

When I look at the GFS all I see are ghosts.

I mean more southern stream involvement, with a less dominant northern stream.

This is precisely why I want to try our luck with the southern stream. I'll be happy to go back to northern stream once we get a good atmospheric shakeup going. This regime we've been in just seems awful to get much help from the northern stream. I we can tell ourselves "just keep giving me chances" to make us feel better but that isn't going to change reality and the reality right now is its is giving us dog ****. I'm down to try something new for a while. If that sucks too...well then I quit.

I'm getting fed up with this northern stream crap. Its akin to Aaron Judge in the playoffs in big situations. You want him out there because you know he can perform, but ultimately you know you're just going to see a whiff and when it looks like it may deliver...it just drops the ball

The Patriots sucked, the Bruins are awful, the Celtics I guess will be fine, the Red Sox off-season has been another slap in the face, winter has been boring beyond belief....MAKE IT STOP!!!! Can we just fastforward to when there is a storm at D3 and skip this boring crap.

We should plan a g2g at one of these games

I am with you on the "you would think approach". I try not to think like that or present that anymore. You're right though. And the most difficult part of all this is trying to tie climate change, whether it be locally, regionally, or globally. What becomes even more difficult is we can only work with data we have and in a large sense, the sample sizes are small and alot of data is reconstructed so there needs to be some caution with how that data is being used and compared. When I was heavily tacking ENSO composites a few years back, I was incorporating the Ensemble ONI and reading alot of the work Eric Webb and others had done with ENSO. When alot of people talk about ENSO everything is geared towards the CPC ONI but there is a while other world of ideas and methodologies on ENSO. The Ensemble ONI re-constructed ENSO events back to like the 1860's or maybe 1830's. I only went back to 1900 when doing composites but one thing I really noticed was (and there has been lots of literature on this) is how the behavior of ENSO events have changed since about the 1970's or 1980's. If you look at individual events and compare to a long-term mean, there are some striking differences in behavior. But what does this really mean? At the end of the day, at least with ENSO, we will continue to witness behaviors that go against the mean but is that for a specific reason or is it because it's just another playing card we haven't seen before? Regardless though there is certainly some influence on climate change going on, it's just how big of an influence is it? I mean all you have to do is go back to the basics of atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorology 151 to understand and see this. Wildfire smoke and volcanic eruptions have to play some sort of roll too, all those chemicals being emitted into the atmosphere, especially if these chemicals are being entrained into the stratosphere. This would surely have an impact on ozone production or depletion. Obviously we've gone through some brutal snow drought periods before and one of those is the 80's which is often referenced. But I guess at the end of the day we need to look at, what was the driver behind those periods and how does it compare to what is going on now?

Honestly, I'm rooting for a good 3-5 year period of ENSO neutral at this point

I would have to think that in the next winter or two we regress back towards average-to-above average snowfall seasons for the region as a whole. I hope to God it's next winter...and there is still time this winter. We can't discount getting crushed in a 4-6 week period during February or March. But if we go another 2 winters like this I am going to become very concerned.

I've been really thinking about this and it's been very weird how the last several years we've seen some good looks in the medium and extended range on ensembles but then nothing happens and in some of those situations we ended up not even remotely close to getting anything. I wonder if the overall pattern and pieces within the pattern are just too complex for ensembles. We've seen some very complex patterns with lots of moving pieces and this is where the ensembles smoothing is kind of making things look better than they really are. I mean think of how many good looks we have had which have failed to produce. That isn't a coincidence and it isn't bad luck. Smoothing can be extremely useful but it can also hide the true story.

I am in agreement with that.

We need a complete hemispheric or even global shakeup. We'll get out of this like we have before but the last several years have been awful, granted better for some versus others, but its been horrid. Doesn't matter the ENSO state, doesn't matter how the NAO or AO has evolved or what phase they're in, doesn't matter what the PNA, EPO, etc. have done. There is clearly some sort of background state that, no matter how things look in the extended, the end result in something that verifies shitty. What that is, why that is, no clue. We've had a tendency to have everything evolve into cutters when we get phasing or a tendency for just OTS crap without phasing.

Where did I argue against that? I've said several times weeks back I liked that period too.

It's been difficult, but I think alot of us are our own worst enemy in that regard. We're looking at OP runs and SLP charts for 200+ hours out and if one OP run shows a storm, all of a sudden there is a "threat". Forecasting in the 7-10+ day range the last several years has been absolutely brutal. The Ensembles are helping either, and in fact, they're making matters only worse at times. While ensembles are critical in medium range forecasting I think sometimes they're weighted too heavily, especially when it comes to the probabilistic sense. I get in this field, there is a huge push towards going the probabilistic route, however, I don't like it at all. We see 60% ensemble probs of 5" 6 days out and are going, "That's a strong signal by the ensembles" and then its off to the races. Sure 60% of anything at 5-6 days out is great, but that 60% is driven based on what the outputs are...if the outputs start going to crap, so do the probabilities. I get there is fun in tracking storms or talking about storms at D10+...I mean this is a weather community and where else would we go to discuss this stuff and have fun? But it's gotten to the point where unrealistic expectations are being created and we're bleeding fantasy and fun with reality and it leads to the back-and-forth wars.

Who knows what to think anymore. I think I am still upset over last winter as a whole and upset about that February event that I got screwed in but I really thought last winter was going to produce. I had zero expectations coming into this winter because I just didn't really get the opportunity to explore long-range, plus I wanted to tackle that from a whole different direction. Things could absolutely change moving into February and we could get crushed but its just been another deflating winter. It's almost as if we can't buy a large-scale synoptic weather event anymore...everything is mesoscale driven or topoggraphic...the upslope snows up north, the inverted trough over the weekend, some LES streamers which have made their way in.

I love reading their blizzard warnings sometimes and its for like 2" of snow with 50-60 mph winds

yeah this isn’t the Inter-mountain West (or maybe even northern Plains?) where their peak climo occurs prior to the solstice. Ours is like a good 4-6 weeks later.

It’s much more tolerable outside than it has been. This isn’t bad at all.