weatherwiz

Gotcha, I know from a few of the papers I've read, it sounds like there will likely be updated methodologies behind the definition over time. When I'm doing stuff with ENSO I am using Eric Webb's ENS-ONI, ONI, and now incorporating the RONI. I'm defining events based on the definitions of each method and doing a comparison. In terms of the RONI. However, I am not sure if I want to create a list of ENSO events using the traditional ONI method or using the RONI as a means to gauge the strength of an event. I am leaning towards a blend of these two as the studies have shown that the traditional ONI has missed a few La Nina events (or downplayed the strength) and the traditional ONI has also overstated the strength of some EL Nino events.

There is one thing I can't find, however, I am assuming this is the case. Does the RONI still use a similar definition of +/- 0.5C for 5 consecutive trimonthly periods to classify an event?

yeah there are some hints for something quick to spin up

Next week will be humid regardless, however, there is definite concern with temperatures and whether we're looking at 70's or something more well into the 80's. However, it is looking pretty warm in the llvls so it won't take much heating/mixing for temperatures to jump into the 80's. Next week will probably be a product of cloud cover greatly influencing temperatures.

Just about everytime there is potential to build in big heat here it gets shunted away. It's been a big theme these last several years. Obviously there have been some occasions we've been able to do it. But this has me thinking about winters. We've clearly been in a major rut with winter and it seems no matter the ENSO phase or what, we keep getting the same crap patterns. Obviously this will change at some point, but I wonder if we'll need to see changes with how patterns evolve during the second half of summer first (and when that happens that will be a precursor for better winters). The entire global circulation needs a major shakeup. Something has to happen somewhere to get the bowling ball rolling. I know there is a ton of research coming out on this (which I haven't dug into much yet) but you really have to wonder exactly how much of an influence the increased wildfire smoke/recent volcanic eruptions are factoring into this. During the transition seasons, there are major chemical processes which undergo in the upper atmosphere with ozone and this is when the stratospheric polar vortex begins to take shape. But if you're throwing all this smoke and particulates into the upper atmosphere, this has to elicit/change chemical reactions which are occurring and it must impact pressure circulations.

I think Tip may have made a post about this yesterday or the day before but the past few years (and actually I believe he mentioned this has been a thing over the past decade-plus) have been intriguing with these omega-like patterns/closed low signals in the medium range which ultimately verify during the late spring and late summer. But just seeing how the models in the long-range are evolving the pattern may be a sign that we are beginning the seasonal transition process in the northern hemisphere. Jet also looks to become a bit bleak....going to be some boring wx overall for the foreseeable period.

Today may be daily record for coldest 500mb temperature at ALB

Wonder if there is a small window to get a quick spin-up system off the Florida coast this weekend

It really is insane. It's not like we're slightly skewed towards above-average, above-average not only dominates but the above-average departures at times are just ridiculous...and even that isn't really a here and there type ordeal, it's more common than uncommon. But what I would like to do is this: Look at the major climo stations across the region and look at the month of July for the periods of records. Get or compute the 30 year averages of high/low for each day of the month for each climatological period (1991-2020, 1981-2010, 1971-2000, etc.). Create a tally of all high/low temperatures for each day of the month. For example, July 1: how many days had highs 100+, 90-99, 80-89, 70-79, etc. Low of 80+, 70-79, 60-69, 50-59, etc. From this data you can visualize what your lowest percentiles and highest percentiles are. Anyways, though what I would be super curious to know is, during previous decades what was the distribution like of below-average temperatures versus above-average temperatures (and those ranges). For example, lets say average high at BDL on July 1 is 85F (which actually I think its right around there). I would like to see every single July 1 high temperature for the period of record. What I would have to wager is, if you were to look back into say the 1940's through the 1970's...what is the distribution of highs for July 1? Then compare that to the distribution of the last few decades. I wonder if there would be any clear signal. This can be done in Python I'm sure in 15 minutes but I don't know Python and my brain isn't equip with learning it. Hell, these plots may even be able to be generated on the Iowa State page. Great site but I wish it was a little more user friendly. Plus, its fun to crunch numbers

I would love to have the time at some point down the road just to data crunch various locations across the region. I know this has been discussed before, but when trying to recollect from memory how weather was in the past, the recollections may not be entirely accurate, however, this weeks cool shot has me thinking. We are starting to view these summer cool shots as anomalous. Now, departures of -6, -7, and so forth, are certainly anomalous but too me it seems these shots are becoming less frequent during the summer months. Again, this is all coming from memory and experience and my experiences only date back to the 90's. Obviously hot and humid weather is no stranger to this region. It happens every summer and every so often we get our extreme range of heat/humidity (upper 90's/lower 100's) and dews well into the 70's. But those periods would often be brief...maybe 3-4 days and then we would get a strong FROPA and airmasses like this would filter in and they would stick around for several days until we got another surge ahead of the next FROPA. Not sure if this makes any sense at all but it seems we are becoming so accustomed to long stretches of above-average temperatures and humidity that these shots seem to be a shock.

As usual with these setups, moisture is lacking but we should be able to get some showers/storms to pop, especially along the MA/CT border northwards. Pretty decent cold pool moving overhead with decent shear. Should see a few stronger cores produce some small hail today and gusty winds.

If anyone is interested in joining the annual NFL pick-em the info is up

If anyone is interested in joining the annual NFL pick-em the info is up

If anyone is interested in joining the annual NFL pick-em the info is up

If anyone is interested in joining the annual NFL pick-em the info is up

If anyone is interested in joining the annual NFL pick-em the info is up

I wish. caved and made hot chocolate

Feels like I am

Sitting outside and it is chilly. This is miserable actually. Nothing fun about this. This might be fine for November but not August. Probably be better if the Sun were out.

We're at the point in the season now where stronger FROPA's and high pressure systems arriving from Canada are going to become more common. Of course it's not going to be days and days of well above-average temperatures and high humidity but and this is where the new climate regime shows its face is, the periods of well above-average temperatures are going to far outweigh days like today and tomorrow.

Probably more likely to happen just ahead of the cold front later in the week

I look at it more as trolling the ACATT crowd. Their mouths probably watering only for the unfortunate reality of 80's with dews in the 60's to lower 70's to smack them.

Today is actually a hot cocoa kind of day. May make some

All of next week will be humid until we get a FROPA sometime next weekend.

Not cold, I just love 80's and humidity.