weatherwiz

hopefully some of those totals in NJ are a good omen but also going to need this to consolidate some over CT...good banding signal but its very streaky

Radar seems to be filling in across southwest Connecticut

Looking good out your way with the band. Not very far outside those heavier echos but wind is so gusty its probably blowing snow from that band here

This band is going to ramp up over the next few hours. mlvl fronto continues increasing. Northeast CT into Northeast MA is going to get hit good...band really cranks by then as sfc low deepens as it lifts northeast

That's exactly how my brother texted too. Said he saw a flash of lightning and then a huge bang of thunder. He's like equal distance from Plainville/Farmington lines give or take

You're probably not wrong

We've waited all winter for this. It's rock and roll time

Brother in New Britain just reported thunder/lightning

The lightning also may not be C2G so not being picked up or displayed?

I'm getting more optimistic too you may see the band strengthen some as it crosses CT. I was thinking today the lower end of my 5-8" was going to be the case but starting to think there could be lots of 7-8''.

Steep mlvl lapse rates. I bet there is a good MAUL on some HRRR soundings. I know models were hinting at that

Let's go!!

Mesosyanlsys is encouraging in that regard. Has me cautiously optimistic good banding gets much of the region.

Been a growing concern of mine the last day. It will be fun and wild for a time under the band but outside the band snowgrowth and ratios will be very questionable.

Parts of the deep South will end up with more than a good chunk of us may Was looking at LFT on bufkit...pretty wild for down there.

My girlfriend had mentioned it to me a while back but I thought she was exaggerating a bit...but then recently (like a few months ago) there was a news story (may have been local Springfield station) on it and the Wal Mart here was like somewhere between #5-10 in the country...I want to say it was 5th lol.

This is pretty interesting, however, I think it shows the significance of a band materializing and being under the band today. I'm becoming more and more convinced that outside of the banding...spots may struggle to get much past 3-4"...and this could end up being generous. Anyways, when I was looking at 12z NAM bufkit I was a little shocked. Based on 12z NAM bufkit, it looked like the heaviest banding would impact BOS-BDL and probably just west of ORH. But when assessing the model I would have thought the banding signal was better northwest of this line...unfortunately not much for bufkit profiles (CAN in northwest CT but it didn't look as impressive there). Here is a snip it of BOS/BDL. The window for accumulation is small and heavily tied into the banding.

Unfortunately I have a busy day ahead so my window to do that closed. Wal Mart is probably a disaster (and the Wal Mart here is always a disaster on a normal day...it's actually ranked as like one of the top 5 or 10 most violent in the country lol) and I'm sure everyone is at Big Y grabbing bread and milk.

Driveway here is still glazed and roads have a glazed look. I wanted to hit up Wal Mart/Big Y but I don't want to deal with any ice potential...not just myself but people drive like idiots. I'll just stay put.

Can see that setting up on mesoanalysis

I was going to do some errands around 6:30 this morning (may day started at 4:00 cleaning a dog pee/poop party ). I go outside and everything was glazed...I was not chancing driving anywhere. Errands weren't that important.

This is a big flag right now, IMO. At least the HRRR (haven't checked the RAP) doesn't seem like it gets any banding going. Or if it does it is nothing to sneeze at.

I think there are alot of little nuisances going on. But this is continuing a common trend we've seen with storms within compressed flows these last at least few winters. We get some really amped looks and everyone gets excited, there is an expectation there will be a cave geared towards the more amped models we we start to see say this around 48h. Then we get inside 36 hours and its a collapse and trend towards the less amped. Let's say that is the result when all said and done here...then clearly there is something within this 0h-72h window that forecast models struggle with mightily. There is something within the physics that models seem to be extremely sensitive too.

I do think there will be some 10-12" totals but outside of the banding I think we're looking at the lower end for snowfall ranges. It's still going to be a decent event...I would anticipate still a widespread 5-6" for most.

This is going to be a total nowcast. I am really not sure what to make of the QPF outputs. I feel like outside of the heavier fronto banding the QPF is going to underperform. The NAM has me really nervous too with what looks like the idea of two bands (one centered around Albany and the second northeastern Mass into northeast CT/far northwest RI maybe?). The GFS also kind of hints at this too but seems to phase the bands together and CT into northeast MA gets smoked.