Typhoon Tip

This 18z NAM is pushing the thickness approach to 580 at only 26 to 28 C ( only ? ) in 980 mb - that's gotta be a Roman bath-house DP party out there Mon/Tue if that's the case.

As expected... MAV/MET and NBM for that matter were too dry on DPs today. All sites ALB/BAF/FIT/BOS 62 to 66 and apparently this may rise looking up stream. I think this changes the convective picture a litttle, how much or how little - But TCU tiling in a fast conveyor atmosphere from NY as we well above 85 and still rising . I suspect nicking 90 is possible with perhaps more CAPE than modeled.

Can we 'Bahama blue' ? I love that type of pattern. 83/77 with streets of training/narrow glaciators that choke rain for 2 minutes. Brilliant white TCU against frankly, a blue tinted sky that rivals anything you see in a Canadian October delivery - I mean the sack-sticking stink of it sucks but it's pure conveyor from Nassau

not to be a wise-ass but ...no one does? This stein stuff is all fun ( and dumb ) but gardens and neighborhoods eventually do gully-wash by either afternoon air mass deals, or .. more meso-beta scale by that sort of noctural cyclic stuff. I looked at your rad over night and there were three cells amid a rad cenama that lasted for a couple of hours, and these sort of scaled events are too discrete for models -

I also feel the d-3 risk may smear more E in time, given to the on-gong longitudinal corrective behavior of any guidance when moving through temporal seam between the mid and shorter ranges. I could see that synoptically getting to western NE/E PA N NJ and NY metro, and then in situ monitoring also has that tendency of outpacing due to outflow propagation

Yeah ...looks like they're so veracious in their hunger they've mistaken identity and are etching that decking and scab colored picnic tables for blood meals.

I was advertising this risk up our way ( SNE ) three days ago ... modest lapse rate, but bigger CAPE and right entrance/side-swipe jet fields. Seems to pan out but the general kinematic layout is/has repositioned in space and time favoring that evening arrival into your region of the M/A. - at the time I noted the D3 out of SPC as 'mrgnl' throughout, and surmised they'd goose to 'slght' as the time nears - a typical wait-and-see tact out of that office. Indeed, they have, but it's back toward PA and not up this way. D'oh Still, I see this potential as a possible nocturnal evolver going forward - quasi MCS checklist in place. Not 100% sold But, there are wind maxima running over/astride of a bit of a synoptic acceleration of thermal conveyor - present linear MCS stalls/robs theta-e in that arrival? Perhaps. Source is appears smeared away from the heat Advised region of IA-IN yesterday. This shows nicely in these recent NAM FOUS/grid values ( heh, I'm old school). It's still pushing impressive 28 and 29 C at 980 over BOS/LGA respectively today and tomorrow, with WSW non marine contamination, and 700 and 500 mb <60% RH typically flags open insolation .. may have to now-cast ceilings with spill-over near-by. If so, I suspect 2-meters slope to 32 C is attainable over metrowest(s) type regions, so that's the other aspect - sneaking albeit pedestrian heat wave lurks. But yes the 565 dm thickness argues TDs may in fact belated.

Heh... I think that's over amped in the runs. we'll see -

The DPs hurting - without them, the CAPE are low. Prior runs looked more theta-e loaded with the in-bursting heat. Today may creep to 84/49 type warmth. It appears there is a diffused warm boundary tomorrow morning and near 90 heat sweeps in, but the theta-e appears to lag until Sunday. Which by then the wind max/S/W, will have moved out leaving probably 91 with 65 to 70DP by Sunday at 5 pm with mainly sun/fair skies and lazily wobbling flags. SPC still has us in marginal however - In fact, MOS products continue to creep higher for Sun and Mon, now 88 at KFIT and 89 at KASH. This may turn out to be a low grade heat wave for BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT and BOS if the wind can stay more 230, because all sites should be 91 to 95 on Tuesday.

See the D5 GFS with the 540 dm thickness over Ontario ? wow It's 'symbolically' if perhaps suggestive/inferred in climate history, why the 4th of July weekend may be the hottest ever - hyperbolic speaking lol. Seriously though, this June 22nd through the 4th of July has carried some "smoldering" attributes in the lingering AAM mode, combined with ridging trying to re-anchor between California and HA. These separate telecons converge and point toward higher highs over eastern N/A. I have noticed many, many times in the past, these sort of odd anomalies (540 over Ontario is deep for June) get kissed within a month by either an equal or aggregate series that ends up leveling the numbers. 540 now, 600 then Yet, that 540 is happening while these base-line larger/super-synoptic 'tendencies' are not being realized in the operational runs. I'm waiting for a guidance cycle to burst through and throw up a bigger 5H anomaly E of 100W more obviously. Metaphor is rubber band being pulled taut. 00z Euro illustrates 594+ dm, SE of Cape Cod on D10. That is probably overdoing it, but in principle it is not a terrible idea given above. Operational GFS is the last model in the bevy of tools to look for that at extended leads due to its cumulative cooling tendency on the polar side of the westerlies,, out in time. It's always 3 to as much at 12 dm colder in the geopotential medium of the Ferrel latitude trough nodes and ambience by D10 it seems. It's a band sander always grinding, and just scalps heights from rising at mid latitudes like an irate Apache. By the way folks, sneaking hot days tomorrow thru Tuesday? Nothing major.. 88 to 91. I really wasn't paying too much attention. I took a closer look when the 00z NAM was in with 27 C at T1 ( 980 mb) over Logan by late Sat afternoon. With lower ceiling RH ( 700 and 500 mb levels), and solar max open insolation lasing to/thru the planetary boundary, a WSW wind, this will probably will bust machine ( MOS ) by a 1-3 F there. I suggest it could nick 90 at BDL/FIT/ASH and provided the BOS stays above 230 on the wind dial there too. I'm unsure on the DPs though. Seems they should be a lot higher than these MOS/blended MOS products are putting up. interesting - But the Euro has 18 to 20C 850s in a SW flow from PHL to BOS on Monday and Tues, with thickness in the mid 570s. Eigh -

00z NAM is like 91/72 at Logan 4pm Sat. I’m sure MOS’ll cap the DP at 66 but that’s not how that day’s type of fresh warm sector intrusion synopsis typically works. Hills out in the distance will be blue tinted.

I think if memory serves the forecasters of the era were not sure if that track would resolve that way - some of the guidance took it farther N before the right slope... That turn probably spared BOS-PVD from a real flogging - I had moved to Michigan for that autumn and winter to take care of grandfather's house as he wasn't doing too well. He did die a year later.. but I was there and miss Bob, but thankfully, also the awful winter that followed for y'all. But we had one storm in Michigan that whole winter, 8" of snow that smelled like rain at 33 F. So, it wasn't a good year in the Lakes either. I moved back the immediate following spring, and that was the year of the 1992 December storm - the 2nd best event of my life behind the Cleveland Superbomb. Not sure why I said all that... I guess it's chain-linked in memory.

I'm such an idiot ....been going there for radar history all along - 'specially now that NWS has no radar at all - ... sarcasm intended! f'n assholes anyway, didn't even consider poking around in there for other stuff.. oy

Mm... to each his own in the interpretation vs expectation but, I don't think we are "due" if that's the tug in the conversation. Of course I'm not a big fan of 'due' anything. I mean, we'll get the first bona fide Cat 4 hurricane after a Cat 1 makes a similar pass three weeks earlier that same season - like on purpose to f' with that

Yeah and it helps elaborate the "stats lie" concept - too. I mean, so the return rate for more idealized strong hurricane Express is 20 or 30 years. But, that flurry of the mid century might skew that some? I mean they have cane stats going back to antiquity ...when some anecdotals, written in "ye ole souther doth rose a fierce clatter upon the morrow" type lost on me speak that we can guess or deduce were hurricanes - after they were decoded of course haha Kidding but I saw a Science Channel thing about the Atlantic. There are coastal sedimentary studies from Ches. Bay clear up to the head of Buzzard's that argue there have either been bigger hurricanes in the past, or a helluva more rich tsunamis history than anything witnessed since white man settled the West (whether invited or not). The same show talked about the Canary dooms-day clock