Typhoon Tip

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  1. Seems clear to me the “models” already have. this particular run of this model appears to be an outlier solution fwiw. Things can change if the others come around. My guess is they’re going to have similar solutions though if not tonight theyll go back to it
  2. What’s the source of that… I mean that could also be a troposphere fold
  3. Just from looking at the 500 mb evolution it almost looks like -I thought - convective feedback at first and then the low gets relayed into the troughs quasi-g forcing. The other aspect is that the entire structure this thing is much slower than the global models in this run
  4. What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation.
  5. Well .. obviously. But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic It’s hilarious… People seem to ignore and/or want to battle this concept yet the instant the hemisphere tries to cool off from the north south what’s the first thing that happens? we get a storm developing moving at ludicrous speed amid a cosmic jet - right out of the gates right out of the gates. Nice
  6. I’m sure you do. fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not Navier-Stokes for the “wind” Ha!
  7. It’s called fluid mechanics ... Aspects certain folk had to learn all proper like y’all
  8. That’s kind of a problem - it’s hard to develop blocking with an antecedent fast flow
  9. Heh. not sure it’s a good idea to allow one’s self to be wrangled into day 5 precision impact calls ... I’m inclined to think less impact given these unilateral model scenarios of the system moving at like 70 miles an hour bulk velocity… It’s a zygote circulation south of Long Island and it’s deepening as it’s passing ... at an impressive rate yes, but it’s borderline whether it’s in time to really impact southern New England. I’d say the greatest impact is the upper coast of Maine up to Nova Scotia and so forth given the present modeling tenor Heights are too high from Texas well prior being ejected out of the West, out along the gulf coast/Florida/adjacent southwest Atlantic basin. This whole amplitude is kind of like a rock skipping off a pond - spatial metaphor
  10. Yeah...I don't think this thing has time to do much impact... Seriously hulling ass! It's deepening rate is impressive but it scoots from ACK to east of D.E.M in like 5 hours - ... by the time the cyclostrophic field turns around proper-like, it's already been sunny and over with.. And by the way, get used to speed contamination ...
  11. It's all tedious really ... I mean, not to dissuade others from keeping track. But, this level of detail seeking ... ( not to mention if they are veracious - we are always finding out that a clad data set is found to be flawed, passe' ) it's all stuff that seems more appropriate to those stationed out upon a slab of faux Terra Firma, just slightly too big to actually be defined as a mere ice-floe, with portable sat-dishes and a battery, jerry-rigged to send current in AC to a lap-top. They're scrambling to get one last empirical data set entered before their scheduled hilo's arrive and whisks them away before the the PV's cryo hell engulfs the setting. These kind particulars will resonate to those walking sectors of society - and of course are important for discrete sciences back in labs and University desks and white-boards and what have you. We in here, we're internet junkies finding free publications of their findings, to repackage surrounding our own hypothesis - okay, but for what? Here's a thought: There's a tendency toward a microcosm of what goes on out there, just colored differently when we play a hedging game with decimals, in here. The reality is that we are obsessing over serrated elevated points and dips along a curve that's descending clearly to hell - no matter how we cut it up and look at it. The fact that we do, strikes me as a kind of bargaining tact. It's same shit that is happening out there is society overall. How? Those that are finally coming out of the auto-pilot, knee-jerk denial stat and are accepting that there is a problem, there is a tendency to fall-back rely upon this invented notion, that it is somehow "unclear that Human's are the cause," .. Um, no. That's bargaining. It's just taking on a different form/color. I don't want to say the word appropriate, because that sounds stilted, and almost toeing the line, and not questioning authority and ...well, for better or worse, I'm too maverick at the core to do that, either. However, keeping it 100,000 mile perspectives, is the appropriate conclusion nonetheless. Because, delineating lost ice as less than 2012 given the reality, absolutely should not allay the concerns, certainly not the gravitas ( that is real ) of the problem of a climate change that is highly probably caused by anthropogenic forcing ... Not even by decimal amounts of fear for that matter. I don't wanna be out of line? I just would hope there is not a "bargaining" thing going on here, where one might even be less aware they're doing it. It's where if 2019's data is less than 2012 that somehow, in some deeper way enters a plausible justification for "phew, that was close" - I mean... close to what? Irrelevant ... It's not stopping an inevitability to 'make sure' 2019 is decimals less. ha ha. Ultimately it doesn't matter... Fact of the matter is, for all the work that's being published to this site's social media depot, I could not locate one general populate out among the provincials to the bourgeoisie, in a random sampling, that [most likely] even knows it exists. Ha ha. It's kind of funny - doing endlessly, something, that makes no difference. Hm. Kinda flirts with the old insanity definition, huh. But, we engage in this shit because we are hobbyists, and well.. concomitantly we have an interests. And that's fine, too -
  12. Heh. That was in deference to the thing later in the week
  13. Coastal storm is pedestrian ... The bigger eye -pop there is the mammoth Rosby roll-out and the sweeping chinook warm up across everywhere and including Michigan to Maine and points south, D7 -10 Which btw, that look and the U.S. ensembles all did an about face on the previous tele signaled and explain why tele -reliance in transition season is at times just as back-stabbing as the operational runs. We'll see if this has legs ...or if we head right back. I'm not totally sure I buy it? That Hagibis is a large influx - I'm just wondering if this expanded H-cell business might absorb that too. Just think, we keep this up and maybe no teleconnectors will be worth a shit at any time of the year
  14. Can you imagine the ballz on this guy ... That bucket's gotta be some kind of prorated to get those boulders that high. No amount of money -