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Typhoon Tip

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  1. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    One more day in the high 80s to low 90s before we settle into a refreshing pattern that verifies warmer than any of the models and their derivative guidance are showing right now… only to reload the pattern next week for more heat during the Brokeback summer...
  2. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Yeah all the way up 190 and down rt2 the dash was also pegged at 89° around 4:45 - it got to 90 for a high Ayer. I've noticed this several times that there are certain conditions where that is the hot zone in Massachusetts just E of the Worsester Hills. It's probably the west northwest wind trajectory
  3. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    So much for the slow start this morning ... 90/74 was the high here..
  4. Typhoon Tip

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    I've read plenty regarding the correlation with the AO domain over all - not so much in quadrature/relation to it's subordinate EPO and NAO domain spaces... For the general reader .. the AO domain space ...as in the geographical area, extends evenly southward from the north pole in all directions. The EPO and NAO (which are crucial for North America's interests..) extend some distance north within the AO domain region ... but also extend much farther south well beyond the terminus of the AO. That means that at times the AO can be negative while the other two are concurrently positive, and vice versa... particularly that can be true when time dependency is applied to the correlation. The causal link between low solar is total AO domain consideration ... how those intervals of blocking set up and whether those are in or outside the EPO and/or NAO is a secondary mechanism. Since the AO does, however, share domain space, it's a probability related matter ... The AO may be in a blocked mode, and offers some favorability that its block happens to coincide with EPO and NAO. As far as targeting the NAO during solar minimum ...that may be, but I've never heard of that - it may actually be more precise to think of the blocking phases as a total hemispheric phenomenon, and then it's a (ironically) dice roll where -
  5. Typhoon Tip

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Dude, there's no physical limitation on gustnados connecting to cloud base and yes I've seen those too. That said ... yeah, the idea of that being a reflection occurred to me too.. but at last there is clear pixelation in that image that agrees. It's too bad that general frame wasn't looped tho, because it does take on the a bit of the lenticular look of a meso.
  6. Typhoon Tip

    Avoiding Hothouse Earth

    Some of y'all could be holding a cherry red iron spit and you'd deny it's hot
  7. Typhoon Tip

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    tough call... if it's not fake - and no offense... the question has to be asked in this era of complete transparently honest, wild-wild west internet ... - it's not entirely clear that's drilled into the updraft of that impressive storm. It could be a gustnado - which is a real phenomenon, no joke.
  8. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Probably have taken my own contribution to that silly debate about as far as I'd like to... But, I echo Scott's sentiments; I said as much earler, that I needed some legit quantized indication that the hemisphere is delivering a seasonal migration and I don't see that just yet. It's not 95 now? Okay, but that's not a sufficient metric for making that decision frankly. For a litany of obvious reasons.... that's not enough. Having said that, I feel partial culpability (perhaps) for having titled this thread "splitting" in deference to the month - later qualifying that closer to the 20th. However, I will admit that's in jeopardy. We'll see how things "break" this week - hahahaha. J/k. Again, the hemispheric main core of westerly wind is still packed up in to Canada... Nothing is breaking until that, as a bare arse minimum, comes south. I guess winter's back was broken last February when it was 84 F ? How'd that work for yeah...much of the season's snow, at last for he interior, happened after that in those two nor-easters in March. We did have that cat's paw fest on 3 or 4th or whenever that was, but I remember close to 20 " from two different tree pruner blue bombs after that.
  9. Typhoon Tip

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Beastly skies man... The outflow wedges have particularly dark bottoms with jagged tendrils extending a considerable distance, set before chalk board smooth rain curtains that tint slightly green at the cloud seam. That's what came through here in Shrewsbury, and the rain was thick like fog ... white noising over that metal plated roof like you had to speak over it -
  10. Typhoon Tip

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Not to be the recognition/accolade police but he said, "...Severe hailers" Pea sized hail ? ...doesn't cut it. I still don't see severe hail as a primary event threat today... This is a wind and deluge issues, although honestly I'm a bit surprised that continuous lightning took place.
  11. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    KPYM is 81/74 ...that's pretty rich for ASOS
  12. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    In any case... we are getting sun! weeee - Temps responding quickly.. and there's tall leaners with down pours in CT and we're probably going to see these strafe the area.
  13. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    This mid and upper level low is like a TUTT that you find in the tropics/subtropics... The westerlies core ...that main band of jet wind is displaced completely N of the contiguous U.S. latitudes draped across southern Canada... Underneath it, we have these stranded gyres... Not sure how they are really all that distinguishable - Also, I don't think a heat wave or two is out of the question given to 582 to 594 heights persisting in the means south of the 50 parallel. Breaking back subjectivity aside, that's a tough assumption to make with that on-going circumstance. The NP just roasted to 100 F and the only thing that stopped that from coming east was this present critter whirling around - that's luck. That's not summer failing - I guess for me ... I'm looking for some solid evidence at a whole-scale level that the hemisphere has ended matters.
  14. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Yeah...summer's "back is broken" when DPs are sustained near 70 ... No, ... still trying to rush that Steve? I'm not going to admonish the effort, because I offer that it is 'bent' or bending... and, obviously, breaking is inevitable at some point. I even surmised myself we'd be into a more oscillatory pattern by the 20th...earlier in this thread ... which in my subjective opinion is the break - Regardless of whether that happens, it's going to be well above normal with elevated DPs probably for the next week... And this recent bout of "cool" is not really cool when by thermodynamics, there is a pig ton of energy stored in the atmosphere that cannot be there if the season were truly giving up (so to speak..). But then again, semantic tediousness: everyone probably has a different notion on what 'breaking summer's back' really means - so it's all in jest.
  15. Typhoon Tip

    Summer Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Mmm... I still don't see anything to outlandishly anomalous about the current bout of gloomy days. The pattern as a whole is anomalous ... but the sensible impact really should not be considered that big of a deal in all fairness. It's hard not to conflate those two - I know.. But truth be, we can put these strings of gnarly days together in spring and summer around this part of the world. Over the years, this happens ...enough so to not make three or four days of it all that unusual - not by fairness to our climatology. I was trying to put an empirical value on the mank ... by asking yesterday for those sun vs cloud statistics. We got a lot of norms and climo replies, yeah... we know... but we're interested in the verification for this year. Subsequently, how those verifications compare to climate? For what it's worth, the clouds are thinning and the numbers from the models suggest that we're transitioning out over the next two days.
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