Typhoon Tip

We'll broach that question when there's great blocking -

No, I did not - ha ... Truth be told ...I spend a goodly amount of recent energy explaining to folks that there's no use in prediction beyond 5 days in this overall circumstance, so at risk of being a hypocrite. Trying to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken shit pattern is tough.

What - your post does not logically follow - I'm not 'pooh pooh' ing anything - the model could certainly be a weak outlier. I'm asking - and it matters quite analytically -

I'm wondering if the EPS carries it or at least some - The GEFs actually have several members with blizzards. Sort of imagine "PD1" but a further N. track compared to that one - Will would be the better one to reference but I'm pretty sure that first variation of the straight E Miller B boning on northern extent scenario had milk cirrus and flurries to the Pike with CCB blizzard conditions in PHL-DCA... Digress - Another aspect that's interesting is that 2/3rds of those members have a storm and of those, they're all snow really... Usually at this range, they are all rain - not sure if that means anything but. Anyway, point is ... I wonder if the operational Euro is a rare weaker outlier

mm... I dunno Kev I can distinctly recall 40 day stints of really not even seeing a flurry. I remember the weeks after that 1987 planetary alignment storm... that ended winter. Feb and March nothing... 1989 ? come on man - Thanks Giving was the whole winter that year pretty much. It's actually kind of a silly conversation point because we both know that every decade has ratters ... And even in 'partial ratters' that have a good event or two nested in dearths of events, those years will still put three week stints of ennui in the books pretty commonly. Realistically ? not, ..or should not be considered that uncommon

mm... that already empirically got torpedoed by December - sorry for the grousers ...

So, anyway, my take on the the 26th for anyone less guided by resentment and frustration: The 00z GEFs members clearly show the majority as carrying a significant system through the east between the 25th and 27th. In fact, ~ 2/3rd did so on the 12z suite, yesterday, 00z that improved to ~ 8/10. Question? to whom they avail, what is the EPS, PNA index right now ? If it were up to the GEF's PNA alone ( with no over-arching -AO/-NAO ) one might hunch we are heading for a whopper January thaw. ( Ha, did we ever truly freeze ). The teleconnector complex is burying any 26th signal though. Intense -PNA doesn't at first lend too well. I suspect this is a rareness that may materialize out of a rare hemisphere - frankly. It is rare to sustain blocking in a fast, velocity saturated circumstance. The blocking is real. The -AO is antecedent and trended heavily, and is getting that ancillary support from the SSW stuff ( tho I'm a bit about that for other reasons ). Technically, the NAO has not yet manifested on the charts, but is literally doing so today - as this thing is decaying in situ into a quasi 50/50 smear. The forces(ing) that is/has been driving the -AO along, is probably helping to ignite the NAO limb of the total NAO domain space. It's super complex - I'll try to make it brief. I really believe that the -AO from early December through last/this week, was an artifact of the hyper intense ( probably historically so ) +WPO, which by virtue of its depth more so than the polar region z-coordinate heights, caused the EOF calculations to consistently register a negative total AO index value. Math does not 'personalize' these values - it only deals with absolute values of D(z). If there's 150 dm of gradient, an index gets rather large. Doesn't matter 'how' it situates that gradient. In this case, we have a modestly high polar cap heights next to a super-massive, multi-nodal hole in the atmosphere between midriff eastern Asia and Japan! Then, the SSW takes place during; here we are the lag 3 weeks in time, and we see that the SSW is ?propagated? ( so it seems ) down to where it ?might? be coupling with the upper tropopause. This ( rather fascinatingly ) suggests two disparate forcing sources on the AO may describe the total. The former planetary wave mechanical variant ...effectively relays into an era that is SSW driven. Anyway, the -AO is real ...and it probably more so than not parlays a successful -NAO favorably. It's setting up a look that doesn't really lend to idealized structures. The 26th is a squeeze play because of all this. Those GEF members and off and on operational et al or injecting Pacific potency into the field, and then idiosyncratic handling of the western limb of the NAO domain will dictate whether that cuts or shears ... or even maintains enough mechanical presence along 40 N to pull off a narrow conduit Miller B. These are all on the table -

I know ..it's hilarious - I wonder ... the last 20 years ( we've had this conversation before - I'll keep it comparatively brief ...) we have had not only more snow than any other 20 year period probably dating back 300 years of climo ( check that; it just seems so), more importantly: It was also 20 years of constant cinema. The excitement quotient was concomitantly ...exceptionally dosing! Perhaps we are just conditioned to expect more drama now, and that "euphoria" drug we joke about, when opening the models and seeing 8 to 10 isobars closed off over ACK becomes ...almost 'entitled' ? We're talking years bombs and over-achieving SWFE and Katrina's and Maria's and Sumatran subduction thrust events...my god. Hell hath no fury like entitlement "unjustly" unrealized. Lol. Like, the sin of god himself to impose normalcy. just sayn' Afterthought: I realize we may not have actually had more 20-year totals than other 20-year blocks of time in the past... I do know that when it's on, we over-achieved more frequently per features and season. Btw, folks,..that is/was modeled by climate change science - fwiw... A metric was proposed all along by guidance and science therein, that the atmosphere holds more WV in a warming world. Mechanisms that release that WV will increase proficiency ...

LOL but you know what I was thinking would be interesting ? what if that 00z Jan 26 12 hour 15"-20" scenario verifiied: all told, we would not exactly be terribly off average snow totals for the year. Get another doze like that later on Feb 20 and then again on March 25th, and we would be fine - in fact .. perhaps modestly above normal. No one 'sane' would have any room to complain - right? wah wah waaaaaah

There's something there... The GEFs individual members are 2/3rds nodding in favor, and we've seen it off and on for three days at this point depending on which cycle/model in question. So, not consistent but in this regime... as I've hammered ( and nothing's changed ) predictive skill at even D5 ( let alone 10!) is unusual poor. In fact I'd almost say it's N/S entirely by D10... The signal fights thru in a symbolic sense ...but there's something too that in terms of numerical presence in the circulation totality. Still, seeing that many members ... ( and the Euro has some semblance there too...), denies the weight of that assumption of N/S ( no skill)... blah blah.. The 12z GFS was subsume phasing. Phasing could take place, but at this range and inherent synoptic limitations/predictive faulting ( abv), probably means that the GFS would be right for the wrong reason in this case. Be that as it may, the Euro lacks an N/ stream ..and backside western NA/ ridge bulge like the 12z GFS. That ridge drove the N/ stream of the GFS solution S, to meet with the interloping S /stream and the love-making gets going. But, ... the Euro keeps the flow flow... as does this 18z run too... Meanwhile, hemispheric Pro is that we are in a blocking signal that will pervade through that era ..probably into the first week of February. I agree whomever said that the blocking tendencies may vanquish from extended ranges, but prove premature - these sort of large -scoped planetary drives tend to take geologic time spans to breakdown ( no really geo kidding) .. That said, retrograde along the 60th parallel ...even if just a tendency, means there is an implied cyclonic rotation wrt the 40N westerlies... that intrinsically favors phasing of subsume variety/or phasing in general. Con is the exceptionally fast hemisphere @ and astride the 40th parallel. It is possible that these intermediate and/or S/waves simply move too fast ... these features bi-pass. That's sort of what we are seeing as the predominate depiction out there in time.. What needs to happen is the ridge in the west to amp more ( 12z GFS ). Sometimes you can draw a N /stream wave down purely by lowering resistance ( 'torque attraction' ) as the S /wave lowers heights S of the SPV fragment in wait... and since overarching block exerts, and you don't need to force the N/ stream into action - these are enough the S /wave is 'harmonic' in the sense that it's not moving by too fast to allow the physics of wave energy synergy .. But now isn't that time ... when the flow is too fast, you almost can't do it that way.. The western ridge has slow the field down so that the union can take place.

Welp ... nice shot of bitter cold for the 22nd on this GFS pan dimensional winter expression is different and that different’s gotta be good

The hell are you two talking about talk about missing the point of that joke

After this weekend’s little rain east glop west diddy ... here’s what the next two weeks of oper GFS offers. 5 afternoons with exploded polar CU in a virga washed sky, and 1 windex plausible D13 I realize folks said the 2nd half of the month rock ‘n’ rolls but were they thinking Air Supply?

Chris or whomever else reading this that NWSes a living.... after careful consideration and ample evaluation period I’ve come to the objective conclusion that your new radar system sucks

well... folks - not you per se ... in general - probably need reminding that static patterns don't typically deliver bigger/satisfying events and 'cinema' therein. you need mass fields to be disrupted, and as the new signal passes through a domain, there's a correction events. Some times even subtle perturbations in the field will trigger, too - doesn't have to be a huge 4 SD jolt either. But unchanging patterns find equilibrium - that's just physics.