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Typhoon Tip

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  1. May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models

    The Euro 12z looks darn toasty D 5, 6, and 7 ... It actually had something similar on the 00z run (synoptically). Gives us a NW flow look at over the top heat... The air mass doesn't have a Sonoran origin, but +13 to +15C with lower DPs and very high sun angles, and WNW flow would offer some pretty tall BL... could see that upper 80s and blowing up the American machine guidance if that verifies. ... edit: actually the GFS MOS is already over 80 F for those three days to the tune of some 11 to 14 over climo, so that could easily correct toward 87 or 88 at verification.
  2. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    That's why I was asking ...yeah... If the steam/heat plumes get into an elevated unstable lapse rate than those 'toxins' get interesting... There is a phenomenon known as "pyrocumulus" ...you can google/youtube time lapse but CU sometimes build over the top of forest fires -
  3. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    I find the tropical forcing argument as plausibly coincidental more so than causal this go around... The reason we've had this pattern locked in like this to date has been the huge, sprawling anomalously positive NAO that replaced the persistent -NAO from much of March into April. It is not abundantly clear that's sourced from the tropical pacific, A, but B, ...the circumvallate circulation around that huge Maritime trough is drilling peristent NW mean flow through mid and SE Canada... and C, that was set up before any present tropical forcing signals for early June, and... tropical forcing becomes less a forcing mechanism in summer, once the hemispheric wave-space break down and R-wave nebularity takes over. I find that whole argument flawed. But we'll see... It could end up NAO reloads and we rinse and repeat, and I'm sure the cooler results will be blamed on the wrong thing as usual...
  4. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    do those steam clouds ever form cumulus/showers down stream... or is that primarily a boundary layer phenomenon
  5. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Mentioned this yesterday that the ceilings were sketchy in the models... seeing it on satellite isn't shocking - But, we are passing through a warm frontalysis and that's transported 60s DPs and with some splashes of sun we are around 70 or into the 70s where lucky. Should improve ceilings further as the sun rises higher... Tomorrow's looking like a top 3 day... Looks like 0 cloud, 80 F, light or no wind, low DPs... Just the gentle hum of a bumble bees while the wafts of lilacs remind us of girls that f-ed us over...
  6. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    ..Until tomorrow... heh -
  7. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Tam' it's a correction I've seen 'endemic' to the NAM as well... I've noticed that it balloons QPF handling winter storms in the FRH FOUS numbers by 1/3 to almost 1/2" for midland intensity mid latitude events. It seems when a system in question is of upper tier physical presence in the atmosphere it does better .. probably because above some threshold any biases ends up masked by the prominence of the event its self.. But, below that, it loves to have 1+" totals at 60 hours ... ending up as .5 and change if that by 24 hours lead. I wonder if that's an American model trait ...do to some .. process/sequencing they use that say the UKMET or Euro don't. Who knows ...
  8. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    I'm wondering how much cloud contamination lingers tomorrow in that warm sector... I think the NAM could be a little pessimistic... but interestingly, it has the warmer machine guidance. Euro looks toasty.. But I don't know if any scenario that is being charted at this time means "inferno" ...
  9. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Meh... always good to get rain in May... 'cuz unless it is a rarer wet June, which ...yeah, sometimes can happen, we'll need it in July and August... 'Sides, we are still way above normal temps. A cool day was probably inevitable sooner rather than later -
  10. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    "4 years" hardly seems sufficiently long enough to have been fully vetted.. However, the products ingredients, labeled clearly when first opening that URL, benefits from many years of known homeopathic approaches so 'perhaps' (as in ..with caution), it is safe. This sentence, however ... " Its non-alcoholic composition enhances skin integrity while increasing its duration of action. ..." - wtf goes into enhancing skin integrity
  11. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Eisenhower once famously quipped .. "Beware the industrial military complex" ... A warning as to the morality, and perhaps eventually the loss of very freedoms when using the military to sow the seeds of economic growth. Conquer nation with the military -> rebuilding spurs economic growth at home, ...move on, rinse and repeat. I've been musing to my self for some years, 'Beware the industrial food complex,' as apropos. Pretty much all the major health concerns of the industrialized societies of the planet are presently being linked to processed consumables; and by 'consumption,' this doesn't just mean foods though... It's the whole chemistry to medicines... for better living slogan of the mid 20th Century, and yes the foods we ate/eat as well, and everything and anything both topical and ingested in between. Evolution and biology provided things like Eucalyptus oils and so forth.. .yet, chemical industry and economic engines marketed a mere five decades of research as being somehow superior to ...oh, 100 million years of distilling evolutionary nature. I don't want to throw the entire industrialized food and medical, house cleaning ... industries, under the proverbial bus, however, as they did provide almost a 100 years of sustained means to provide ubiquitous nourishment and sanitation, and baser health care sciences much more proficiently than the purely agrarian ... leeches and whimsy mean. It's been a trade off... feed more, cloth more, treat more with medicine, they live a bit longer and population growth ensues... but, you get tumors and heart disease along with -
  12. May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models

    Regionally .. .many locales may be warmer at midnight tomorrow night than they will be at noon tomorrow... perhaps by a large number, too. I could see it being light rain wet-bulbed to the upper 40s at some places... then, that warm from careens in and blasts through the area around 00z ...and by or just prior to midnight the temp might be in the mid 60s at those some locations.. I mean, this is the sort of thing that takes place in winter. I've bemused in the past how this season has really seemed like a winter pattern persisting over a summer hemisphere ... perhaps that sort of synoptic transition taking place plays homage to that vexation.
  13. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Does look alleviatingly serene ... This may seem entirely OT and well, it will be .. but, I remember after that moving Avatar film, reading about an odd spike for several months that year in suicides where specifically...many of the self-induced victims post-mortem statements actually gave sentiments to not finding the type of joy and happiness found among the fictional "Na've" of that "Pandora" world... Other than being a Darwin award ...when a work of cinema actually triggers such a revulsion to one's own reality they feel fatally driven to no alternative ... I remember thinking, then, how just look around - when we see a paradise melody being sung through the images of such natural splendor right f'n here on this g'damn planet and it's not enough? Like...it's gotta be on another world to be worth the same? Hm.. interesting.
  14. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    4 day heat wave ? D8 through D12 or so...
  15. Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018

    Kevin you'd probably like the extended GFS this morning...