Typhoon Tip

Yeah... I was hammering the telecon layout for awhile myself. It was a monster winter signal ... for February For mid April? It may be mainly an inclement one, wet and cold and miserable .. usual suspects. I spent some time looking over all the spring snow producing events that were important - that I could think off. 1977, 1982, 1984, 1997 ... 2005 .. .etc. They all were "lucky" in a sense in that they got a bit of a cold goosing/inject at a critical time in the developmental phase of cyclogenesis. The other aspect is that there seems to be general modeling technology problem across the bevy of them all, actually... I thought it was something to do with the hemispheric pattern but I'm starting to see the same shit here in a much more nebular flow look/ pattern orientations we didn't have over the winter so I'm not sure it isn't just the models doing this. Doesn't matter which, ...but they are consummately over assessing the amplitude of cyclones in the mid range, and then we watch them ( almost all of them!) peeter out to some lesser form, ...sometimes disappearing altogether. The combination of that and normal seasonal damping ... lends to your thinking of chilly showers -

It seems from these anecdotal accounts bandied about in this social media that a pattern emerges. It is as though the vaccine spectrum of induced symptoms is perhaps proportional, just shift the whole scale toward much less severe. Take a population and some few will need critical care to resolve ...or even die, ranging to just a short few days of inconvenience for the majority ..etc. Perhaps those that 'would have' needed that urgent care...those are the ones getting more harsh vaccine reactions ...

Oh ... I used to live in Rockport ... years and years ago... but, by and large, that doesn't change. It has its charm out there on the tip of the N. Atlantic dip stick known as Cape Ann. You are about in the 90th percentile engulfed in the Labrador Gordon Fisherman wind burned cheek, yet stiff knuckled cold marine climate out there. You can just smell the cold ocean - and it is different than the oceanic aroma of Va Beach or San Diego. I was on the beaches of the Pac side of the Bay Area last June, and that same cold ocean smell was evidence. It's interesting - albeit probably an observation that only a dork like me would hone into..heh. But it's a way of life. If one sans any hope of smelling summer fields and fair ground hot dogs crossing the bridge by the Pogey fish refinery ... and completely inures themselves to boat shoes by summer, parka by winter ... harbor bell culture, they'll do just fine. One thing I miss is what I've called 'sailor's spirit' in the past. It's when the marine layer moves inland on sunny days in the spring and summer...and the leading edge of the fog bank is translucent shrouds that look like apparitions with the sun shining through them. It's a cool aspect. Also, in the winter ... those 0 cryo air masses and the morning sun cuts through the pedestrian steam dogs as they wonder and dance to and fro across the surface of harbor. It's an amazing spectacle if you have the option to head back in for a cocoa and a scone.

You're not too far W. of me along Rt poopy ... We dawned classic overnight BD'ed with slate gray 48 misery mist here... but, we've cleared...and in Ayer we are definitely on the cold side of the BD air mass boundary - but we are still making a run at 60 because that hot high one in the sky is doing what it can to offset. But it won't last .. . hi res vis loop shows this is a fortuitous wedge of clearing between the post boundary band, and a new strata ceiling making en roads from the E ..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Should be back to slate sky here in a hour or so if that doesn't start eroding back ...

This thing didn't really come through here with a wind jolt, either ... It's an ooze by deal - This BD seems to almost be melded into the larger synoptic backing deep layer flow associated with that slow moving trough trying desperately to get squeezed under our latitude. It can't go through the Lakes transit into western Ontario ... so it ends up shearing and going under - taking the next 36 to 48 hours of our lives to do it... But, in doing so, the deep layer tries to turn E anyway... The 'screen door' slam, flag snapping gust of wind type usually comes in more off smaller scaled synoptics. A trough skirting SE out of Quebec, and the NVA behind in ( downward vertical motion..) imparts a mass discontinuity with rising PP over the cold GOM ...and when the air mass is warm and buoyand over the interior coastal plain of Maine to CT ... guess where that air mass goes ? Under the buoyant air - it starts rolling and tumbling SW to 'fill it in'...kind of like opening a freezer door and seeing the cold air flow across the floor - just doing it at the scale of E. New England. Anyway, in the strictest sense this is sort of a hybrid between that and just in general backing deep layer flow.

Which any dude that does and gets 'er home, probably reaches down and oops! noodle and meatballs with that f'n sketchy din of ill-reputable membership - lol... I wouldn't go anywhere near that shit.

I don't disagree ... " It may not absolutely terrible at all times, but several intervals " I think one needs to plan on something like that progression ...and then if things break better ( depending on one's wants and wishes...heh), you'll be pleasantly surprised. The NAO being negative and the PNA actively rising is never good for fair weather enthusiasts as a base-line/ canvas probability. It just isn't. Welcome to April man

What I'm looking at is very good agreement among the operational runs from 00z. Euro, GFS ..G"JUNK" UKMET all trundle a 'bowling ball' under our latitude ( dangerous ) toward the end of the week. In fairness, all that needs is an 850 insert of -1 C and the column would collapse, just as much as if cold does not inject in optimal timing ...the vortex spins by at mid levels with comparatively less surface realization - that's how these things work in spring. The instability in the lower troposphere gets blunted and rotted much faster, so an ominous series of H500 charts end up paltry at the surface. But, when cold avails to them...look out! High PWAT blue snow can strike. We should caution not to be beguiled for having gotten lucky during these first 10 days of the month. Do not forget our climate identity in this geographic - not that anyone is, just sayn'. We've seen enough snow events in mid April. Forget snow .. we should at minimum count on putrescent weather conditions in that look. You know, having it be occasionally balmy to warm, then, dosing putrescence after the fact, does fit right in with the last 10 years worth of f'ed-up springs. Why break trend now. haha, after all this... I predict the Keven wakes up next Saturday morning with blue tinted light at dawn. Glops and slops and splats from trees and eaves to the 4" of 5::1 on the ground. Kidding but we'll see.. Forget that though, it appears the next 10 days are not good for nice weather enthusiasts. But, at least there is increased potential for substantive rainfall - some seem to not "want" that. But, taking some intellectual responsibility and acting lucid for a moment, the probability is increased. With the operational trends landing on top of those vestigial telecon index modes, and appearing to agree - pretty amazing in mid April... tough to argue. We'll see what comes of it.. of which could fall as 'farmer's gold,' too. It may not absolutely terrible at all times, but several intervals

I had a direct encounter with a 500 lb male down here along the Nashua River bike trail two summers ago. Loped away into the woods after just a five second staring contest but it was definitely a rapid heart rate moment ... I had never seen one in the wild - was completely unprepared. The potentially not so funny thing about that encounter was that less than a half mile later on the same path there’s a woman with a baby crib rolling by ... basically just other pedestrians to and fro… I later called the police and they connected me to some kind of game warden I think was the title? Anyway they told me they were glad that I called that in because they were looking for the sire; apparently there’s a couple moms in along Rt 2/N with cubs ...which incidentally are far more dangerous even in accidental encounter than that male by the way - Black bears may not look very big on television but man they’re huge. The head of that thing was like the size of nightmare and when it bounded across the bike path it literally extended the entire distance of the bike path width. When I described that to the game warden she said it was most likely a big male - 450 to 500 lbs of ‘im

So what was it at the end of May last year when it was 96 up there lol if now is the third week of June ... that musta been the 7th dimension of Dante’s Inferno

Yeah no today is one day… - it’ll be interesting to see the tenor in here tomorrow at about 4 o’clock when it’s 44° with slate gray sky and occasional gentle mist

I’m beginning to think that all pathogenic infections of the biological kingdom have always carried on with that same preferential symptomatic sequence/impact based upon susceptibility model. And that the main difference between COVID-19, vs all those before it is that C-19 is hyper focused to the point where any f-ing sneeze or butt itch is being documented as a horror story. Sure people with lupus ...probably legitimately getting sacked. Sure. That would be true with the flu, and it would probably be true with cancer too. Only so much any body can take. If one is carrying around heart disease and then they get a head cold it probably gonna be magnified - it’s always been that way. This is what happens when CNN and Fox News are the instructors for society

Overall though .. the complexion of the hemisphere has changed over the last couple of days - last night's oper. Euro doesn't carry the previous rhea membership at all the same. That well advertised mid month +PNA/-NAO is still there but there are straying GEF members and the mean is less, too. Plus, seeing the EPS tending to normalize the neggie nodes in the flow, and the operational Euro ...some days even looked good out there. It's just not carrying the same panache in misery shits that it looked like we could be dealing with when all this was on the charts and indices a week ago. So, perhaps the seasonal forcing is going to win this race after all - the Euro does look like it's being forced to wash out gradients ... we'll see. The operational GFS, as usual... takes the first 4-6 days of its run to scrub out that weird warmth it can't figure out what to do with, such that it can get the hemisphere back to November by D10 ... where NCEP thinks it should always be for some f'up reason.

Everyone's favorite! Nasty powerful BD front slams through the region during the evening hours tonight - ... 'specially Kevin. He's all psyched. But, at least we will have the flag wobbling laze faire balm of today. Probably makes 77 to push closer to historical numbers around climo sites - what are those btw? I dunno, seems we've had some weird hot weeks in Aprils in the last 20 years - despite them overall still averaging the 'cruelest month'. It may be some of these days are out of reach. But tomorrow ? Whole 'nother world behind the front. I wonder if it strata bum packs down the coastal plain clear to NJ if the NAM is right -

There'll probably be a bit of as surge in vax counts.. post ~ April 15 at a national scale. I think I've read or heard chirps that states overall are opening up to the main bell curve mass of population - or the remainder after the vulnerable ( comorbs) and AARP+ age groups have had their chance to get poked. But ... there's some recent idea whether a lot in the 16 to 55 age range will even opt to get the vaccine? The news media machine et al could be manufacturing a 'crisis there, that isn't as significant though ... again ..and again, and again and again ...because they need lies to maintain operating cost and pad the sociopathic wallots of their Industrial captains.. But, somewhere in their 'social engineering' tactics there are kernels of truth ... We just don't know if there's really that many %, in theatage range, that are going to hide from immunization of this .. ? I bet we see a surge in vax counts though.