Typhoon Tip

it's times like these that i wonder if the model's get exposed and they really do goose them toward climate. because the hemispheric scaled limitations that have ( and apparently continue to do so ...) been smothering activity don't appear to be alleviating in the latter mids ... yet they keep tryin and tryin to spin up mdr cumulus. the western gulf has legs if the fire hose shear were to slacken off.

00z was better at 500 mb for heat signaling... 12z is about 5 dm shallower with dome node and also quicker to conjure up bullshit ( what's new with the gfs's magical grinding mechanics with that... ) to erode it down. it may not matter yeah yeah if the 800 mb and llv synoptics winds are remain favorable - just speaking to the standard metric.

might be the warmest 850 look leading this pattern change yet

it starts in the asia dispersion/wpo

some are already aware but useful recap/nested links either way... https://phys.org/news/2024-09-earth-hottest-summer.html

I’m suspicious of the melt season lasting 10 or so days late.

what's perhaps most daunting of all about that svalbard location is that it's not like a freak low pulled a warm plume ... we're talkin' about a whole month average.

i'll give the guy credit. that's a humorous delivery there -

probably a lot of 80s with unusual warm nights d6 to 11 solar's nearing the equinox. the lower troposphere is only marginal for 90 . if the modeling starts warming further then maybe we score a late 9 0

put a phys.org link over in Global Average Temperature 2024 add s. korea to the list

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-south-korea-highest-average-summer.html

It’s interesting that neither candidate’s addressed gun control - seems that of all travails society faces the imminent peril is clearly one devouring itself … seems worthy of at least a mention.

I mean what … it’s only been a couple o months since that last mass shooting

you know ... i admit to not taking the 00z nam very seriously. heh, why should i - but seeing it persist with the 06 and now 12, re a rapid book-end spin up tracking toward cape code, and the euro being more than less on board, i would think at least marine interests around the horn should be made aware. i'm sure that's happening - so maybe more for us lol it'll probably miss. nam may be both right about existing and wrong about where. but the point is, it's short term/now cast

oh, duh - the embedded links bluewave provided there seems to suggest that. so yeah