Typhoon Tip

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  1. Well... one thing is for sure... these wave saturated progressive flows certainly keeps one their toes.
  2. Not sure I see how we're going to get a low to really go west personally .. I may be in the minority on that - dunno. But, the flow seems progressive and with the hidden trend to neutralize and possibly even dip the NAO ...that starts stressing a Lakes position. interesting...
  3. Funny...the difference between the late range Euro and the GFS, other than some timing ... is that the Euro has zero southern stream impulse of any identifiable kind leading up ...
  4. By the way... this may be under-the-radar ( if perhaps also overstating the threat...) but that just on the surface (pun intended..), the Euro's looks like a pretty decent isollabric wind potential Sunday morning. Low is deepening madly as it passes directly over head, and then move rapidly into NNE. That wind is likely to be almost normal to the isobars and really rushing into the back/underside of the cyclostrophic region if that does that.
  5. It's like the model is trying to put the cold there ...BEFORE the -EPO .. .ha
  6. now look at the 00z ...which had, zero PNA (00z + 12z)/2 = totally useless
  7. Significant?... probably varies, relative to the operator of the vehicle that's pirouetting down the highway before ending up in a heap of twinkling red and blue Christmas celebration amid the center median ...while throngs of backed up demography rubber neck by gawking. .01" of icing outta do the trick -
  8. The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019. Can it happen.. perhaps. But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing
  9. Partial subsume phase from D8+ is pure buck-shot guess-work... That said, I agree that "something" has been popping up in the ensembles of the GFS for a few days. I actually posted about that Solstice 'hint' last week - don't care to go look for it.
  10. Yeah... this should be the focus -
  11. just be careful not to stall at what one wants and be vigil of the notion ... these could just be snap shots along a transitioning collapse toward a destination that is feared. heh... seriously tho -
  12. heh a- haha... yeah. Courier and Ive'er ftw
  13. Mm... it's possible that thing continues to degrade into something similar to what just happened with another post frontal scenario - ... Perhaps instead of temporally being right on the heels, it's just taking another 24 to 36 hours to ripple up the boundary. Maybe quasi wave/ANA mash up
  14. Actually ...far worse are the "experienced" enthusiasts of the social mediasphere
  15. OH yeah -hahaha. I forgot to look at the ensemble means, et al - I figured on the way to work ...just had that feeling for some reason, you know? And yup! anyway... maybe the ensemble means will lend some sanity to the mayhem of this continuity shit that has me scratching head.