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Typhoon Tip

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  1. we do have a light drainage going on here in the interior but it's like 33- 35 air... Some 30 F showing up in southern NH tho -
  2. out of the last 10 or so cycle of the GFS operational I've seen about 50/50....either a blow torch or an out and out ice storm implicated over Xmas weekend- ... That's interesting for me..
  3. West Pac's firing up .... as the MJO may pass into 7.
  4. I suppose I gotta side with the Euro on that late Friday deal ? ...even though technically it's like 8 hour beyond it's wheelhouse... It, and the GFS part company on the significance of that wave leaving the EC on that day ... big implications on that if either is wrong. And 4.5 to 5 days out is an interesting divergence for those two in this day and age -
  5. Utterly comedic how the GFS was seemingly parameterized by some dykhead at NCEP to totally f-up christmass too... Gives that panache because no matter what is going on, that f'n model finds a way to pump a warm sector so far up are butts we're puking DP right smack on the 24th... I've seen 8 different pattern flavors, all achieve the same thing... like, just cut those days out of the model and don't both charting them because we get it! ahahaha
  6. sure this is old hat for this trigger happy crew but how about the skirt bomb on the 12z GFS for Friday... It's a NJ Modeler ... which is high latitude Miller B/narrow ... but, it's also happening in total further S... Just a little bit more total meridional wave amplitude (spatial) and we probably have a more full Miller B multi-regional impact .... Unlike this last one, it would be windier...
  7. I saw the NAM hit that at 78 or 84 hours ... I think it picked it up right out of the box actually - could be wrong... But it really, relative to it's standards, did fantastic for beyond 60 hours... And quite objectively, as a total event stack ... it performed the best.
  8. Yeah... I wouldn't sell on Friday based on what I'm seeing anyway - punt tomorrow ... save for the elevations and farther up into NNE... Jesus, even BGR slabs to +7 C at 900 mb, and our winds are already SW down here ... there's literally 0 ageostrophic component even offer glazing. We'll see how it plays out but I'm fine and less shocked at the notion of this just simply having not turned in our favor as we've closed in on it in time. As for Friday, as James and other's have noted ...and is common sense really, the flow doesn't offer up a solid state sampling of that potential in the atmosphere until mid week. And, given to the "flattish" (while still being SOME semblance of +PNAP) pattern, that also means that it's going to likely rocket from the west coast of N/A to the east coast in under 72 hours (fast flow notwitsanding either). All of which usually isn't the best modeling performance circumstances to begin with. Let's see ...over the last 8 days we've witness a solid winter storm go from prevalent, to gone, to insisted by the NAM...to everyone doubting said NAM, to NAM ultimately scoring a coup even though it too wavered in late innings... interesting..
  9. This storm is like an NFL QB that doesn't know it's time to retire... He still thinks there's a comeback there, yet all his coaches know it's been time, probably for more than one year ... yet, they honor his legacy and no one has the heart to tell him or encourage him to step aside..
  10. yeah .. even just looking at the coarseness of the freebies you get an impression of some sort shenanigans like that... Folks should like the GGEM... That's ...like a pubic hair away from being a 4-6 hour lolly pop. Then, it has more of a proper NJ Model spin up doing an ACY to ACK job next Friday.
  11. Yeah, Scott mentioned that awhile ago ... that seems more likely to me than getting through that thing untainted... but, you never know. I have seen snow cut off ...then you get a weird smell of summer air at 42 Deg...then the polar boundary crashes back through and you flash - ...meanwhile, climo zones are 32.4 F and holding on to a modest coating of glazing... Those spots spike for an hour after said front cuts through in a drip fest,... before everyone sags below freezing and black ice hikes a few insurance premiums... I love how the insurance industry validates hiking peoples rates based upon it being "their fault" that there is weather. Whatever happens down here... It looks like Maine over to N. VT could take a pounding from this thing as it stands now
  12. Ha ha... you sound like you are attempting to simultaneously ask the question ...while questioning the motives of the models - We get that it's frustrating, but it's actually not that hard to see and probably more importantly, 'accept' why that is... The western N/A ridge is amplified, but not enough..If it were, it would drive a steeper coupled wave-length over the eastern U.S. .. That in turn slows down the total evolution of everything... Slower would cause the n-stream to subsume the southern stream more fully... The way it is now, there's just enough "flatness" to the flow to remain more progressive,... and the S-stream zips out ahead - simply put, they are too different wave-lengths ... Interesting, their respective 'timing' is actually pretty good... Just like this last event ... but the spatial relationships were off due to how they are integrated in the large synoptic cinema -
  13. Well... I'm not totally certain - but, the percentages are pretty low that we'd get through that untainted in the least, and it wouldn't be shocking if we penetrated rain pretty damn far inland given the recent 'general' appeal/blend of the models. The one caveat, as Scott pointed out, is that there could be icing in climo spots. Excluding the off-chance that the models, et al, would be 'that' far off in their handling of the western ridge over North America, and that's important... this thing really is forced to move along that northern route with it's bulk mechanics. If the western ridge were taller and more instructive on the downstream wave-length arguments etc... than it might dig more and take a more favorable route for bringing the axis of concern S; however, even if so, we still have the surplus velocity issue in the entirety of the flow, and that would absorb some of said mechanics...leading to a different set of headaches. Bottom line, with that northern route presently favored, there's really no stopping a warm tongue of air from really cutting NW across the region. There's actually "less" logic in the idea that the NAM (for example) is 'likely too warm'. The 800 mb level is still cold ... it's that 900-ish range just off the deck that infernos with that SW flow Again ...that's all predicated on the assumption of northern-esque route with those mid levels...
  14. Surreal perfection in winter tapestry out there this morning ... and, it's fragility will be exposed when this piece of schit comes in on Tuesday.