Typhoon Tip

Let us know when it starts …

Yeah... I'd caution folks not do that heh. I realize there's some snark comedy going on with it right now - not sayin' it ain't exactly earned, either. But we all blow it sometimes, and once the local hemisphere exits this 72 - 96 hour window, that needs to "reset" expectations. The look out there in the latter/deeper mid range is different in total so it's apples and oranges at either end of that span of time. Let's also be fair, the Euro corrected by 84 hours. A bit shallow for some tastes, and frankly, a bit out of character considering it's longer term verification profile, too. But, that's not nearly as bad as though it still carries it say ... spooking offices into headlining. The solutions dumped 3 days in advance. I think - not necessarily you per se but the general engagement in here ... - there is this tendency to impugn a guidance if they don't persist with dramatic solutions. It's getting into that aspect where where it seems the resentment is really about modeling experience ahead of time, and not having that be tainted, than it is the actual storm.

Yeah agreed... wrote a bit about that a couple pgs back .. interesting stream interaction could evolve there.

Ah ..well, it'll be an interesting battle perhaps. My personal suspicion is that the warm event frequency increase is connected to the Planetary concerns ( to put it "mildly" hahaha)... The SSW needs to fire off sooner rather than later or I will be a very dull boy ... spring enthusiasts don't need that happening in mid February... or you can check out until June 10 with packinmg pellet virga flurry days in May

You ENSO folks could also take a little pride away from a mild end/early spring. 'Less I'm mistaken, that tends to be the case with La Ninas. I do think the gradient rich hemisphere and faster flow that causes ... skews some of these longer term type telecons, but ... here's then thing, and there's no real away around this being that it's rooted in fact: The last 6 six years of Feb and Mar's have too often hosted big, and I mean approaching ludicrous warm week(s) event(s)... three of which were even 80+ prior to the Equixox, and barely out of the solar nadir of Mid or late February. They just slip below the care-radar, because some of those years also featured decent winter storms after then fact as blue bombies..etc. But those warm ups have happened regardless of ENSO states ... and they were alarming. When we are enjoying 79.4 F at 4:30 pm driving home from work on February 20th, we don't think of that as a "bad" but it's like +34 ... Sorry babbling .. .my point is, those don't appear to be driven by ENSO ... but rather, just seem to be happening with greater frequency. Won't go into why - that elephant is what it is... But, since La Nina favors early mild runs anyway, I wonder what happens if/when the former background is occurring during an El Nina year that is actually attempting to look La Nina for a change... Just a wonder.

Do you know the title ?

Low probability, but there is a non-zero chance for 'positive return' scenario early/mid next week ... monitoring interesting stream interaction 120 to 156 hours ( from ~ 06z start point for the purpose of this missive, but others may also have noticed this going back a couple few cycles) . Am aware we've been discussing the 22nd and 24th. This is relatable to the same 'synoptic superstructure' of concerns, but is a shift of interest to very late on the 24th through the 26th. Longer concept rendition: Part of the problem with the 22nd and the 24th they were too vague as focus times in a generally. They were chosen because there were at least 'soft' impressions nested in a general favorable flex in the +PNAP. I annotated how/why ...now scrolled between too many pages to bother dredging it back up, but note the 00z to 96z delta(hgt) overlapping the WC and B.C. of Canada, https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=0&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= --> https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=96&r=nh&dpdt=&mc= - also the case in the GEFS and GEPS, en masse consistently for days. Typically downstream of that kind of modulation, ( and the weight of the ens means/cross g support notwithstanding!) interesting goodies will evolve. It supplies a "correction vector" to the field pointed toward deeper trough materialization as to where the models are likely to correct toward - hence the terminology. Look for more amplitude to emerge in future guidance ... with no guarantees that will actually happen. Heh, we used to say, "It's not that my forecast was wrong; it's because the atmosphere didn't cooperate" LOL That was true for the 22nd and 24th .. I feel the simultaneous correction of the models to speed the flow, a leitmotif (recurring theme) where they correct the flow faster moving ext to mid range, intervened on intents and purposes so to sepak - ..don't wanna get into it, but they all do this and have been for years now. It I suspect it partially reared its ugly disruption, where the models have to deconstruct their own wave mechanics in time, introducing more and more negative interference as an increasing offset moving D9's to D5s. It could very well be why this phenomenon of huge systems tending to pedestrian as they get nearer..etc. It doesn't mean things can't be modeled and holed to happen. It doesn't always happen where the models do that. Also, if a given S/W are more amplified, they offset and still torque the flow more. Trade slow moving, very deep results, for shallower ( still potent) faster moving results. This idea below could be that as these two may significantly ( positively ) offset. This is the 06z oper. GFS, as it sets up a 132 hr vision.

There’s a clipper that keeps showing up … Tues. even in the models that don’t, there are gaps there and ‘nature abhors a vacuum’ in either principle or practice - that’s code for those perhaps filling one if that’s isn’t already happening There’s only so much room for that to amplify due to flow compression … but it could be good for an instability bursty 2-3 ..4” It’s also settling into that pattern look we’ve been eying that appears otherwise destined to fail … I didn’t personally feel comfortable about threading for either the 22nd or 24th because of the way spacing and tensions in the destructive interference it’s everywhere in the flow… Hoping that would iron its way out but it didn’t and apparently it’s just gonna go down that way. I think part of the problem is that “good pattern“ was also one hosting flow compression, yet again … caught up with a models. And that’s been an ongoing problem where the models tend to slow the flow down too far in the extended and then have to speed it right back up again; that’s introducing a +Delta( negative interference) overtime Anyway …watching a clipper …for now but low confidence overall

Lol... like, everything that's happened so far has been weird. Why shouldn't weirdness work for the better, just the same -

No dig on DT but that's funny LOL... So dead panned.

I dunno, maybe.... I mean what would cause that to happen? I don't see any mechanism for that, and in fact ...the flow being of canvased progressive in character, lends to these features maintaining their procession space - the flow is not going to accordion like that. It's more likely to have one or the other just end up too weak ( or weak enough) such that it doesn't interfere with the other.

My sense there ... if this is going to be the focus, such that the 22nd "winds" vs the 24th ( like I said and maintain, not likely to get both done due to wave interference), it will get "less stressing to believability" by becoming a more and more dominant lead trough - it'd start to emerge that way going forward.. That whole positive sloped L/W that pinches off routine, seldom is handled well .. nor occurs very often. I mentioned earlier, usually when we are caught in limbo between to waves in the guidance, ... one or the other tends to become dominant and the other becomes nothin' They can also interfere and nothing that way. But cross the bridge -

Right - that's what I was suspecting .... trend -

What was the 00z ?

It is delicious looking ... There's a classic entrance region to the upper air jet over central New England, and the exit region of the 500 mb ( echoed by the 250 above), kissing its ass off the Mid Atlantic. Those two fluid mechanical aspects correlate well to strong surface low pressure genesis in that region, due to causing UVM over a broad area. Enter, that is a climatologic region there along/astride the MA, because that's where the polar continental air meets the ocean and all that.. Add in that at the surface, at that time, that zone is being enhanced, with a very cold air mass lingering over New England and the eastern OV ... tucking down into the regions of PHL or so... that means there is a strong llv frontal boundary extending NEward of the coast. That feature would set up a steeply elevating frontal interface - ah... it just makes the rising air do so more efficiently...which lowers the pressure beneath...etc. Lot of synoptic signals there within that frame going for it.. The problem is what is happening outside, and if that frame can even evolve to a state where those goodies can take place at all. This is actually day 5.5 really ... Not hugely absurd to be handled but still just outside the Euro's wheelhouse. I wen all the way back to hour 24 ... it appears this system's sensitivity isn't coming from the normal uncertainty Pacific. The contributing mechanics are all over western/NW Canada already, and also ejecting from the SW ... over time, there is modest phasing over the western MV, around 96 hours ... eventually it curls around and does it's thing along the EC. The bottom of that trough is attempting to pinch off from a positive aspect.. Basically, it all comes down to that immense engineering feat by the Euro that takes the next 4 days while over the continent. Doesn't lend to confidence.