Typhoon Tip

Can someone explain "gradient pattern"

Not to jump in but if it's any help ... the difference is speed contamination. Velocity saturated flows do not do well with blocking. Deep heights over Manatoba western Ontario with a retrogade near D. Straight creates the old 80 kts everywhere deall... with sheared S/W lost in the windy maelstrom of powerful planetary scaled L/Ws.. In 1969, the flow relaxed everywhere under a west based -NAO (granted..) but it was former circumstance that allowed slow movement/retrograde structures to coalesce the way did near New England.

Looks like this run's headin' for an xmas bomb ... we'll see.

It appeared to me the Euro trended NW slightly ... the last four cycles of that model have done so - the trend I think ... for how little that's worth.. heh ... we are not likely to see a much better phase than we are already seeing? But, we could still pick up a wishy-washy ICON type deal out of this - more below. Firstly, the previous Euro trough handling, and it's pallid surface reflection, were all due east of the Carolinas, as little as two day's worth of cycles ago. As of last night, it clips CC ... So the trend is clad. Forgetting the Euro for a moment ... the flow is probably too fast to really allow a proficient phase. Stranger things have probably happened... but that speed means less time for the N/stream to get involved and bypasses. However, the larger scaled synoptic circulation gets a little steeper in a scenario where the rising PNA means more backside western ridge correction - and it can be subtle. To summarize ... the best possibility to get cold rain to maybe flip to some Holiday spirit would be for the southern stream quasi closed low/deep layer trajectory to work around a more N motion along the eastern seaboard, if 'perhaps' related to PNA adjustment. The GFS seems to already want to do this to some degree with ( ) some lesser dependable model types biting hard. Long shot but the only shot... By the way, that parallel GFS run was a down right Holiday dream for N of NYC ... There's three snows between early on the 23rd through early on the 26th... with blue air flurries in between

You mean like that 00z ICON? ... I am less familiar with the specifics on the December 2002 take a look tomorrow

Mm interesting. A little closer to phasing… It's been sort of trend by inches for several runs. But the bigger correction that I was thinking (if so) probably wouldn't come until 48 hours because it's a rapid fast flow scenario where whatever gets ejected off the pacific into the physical soundings moves quite rapidly across the continent "maybe" benefiting from a robust ridge correction in the west ... We're not there yet but this run illustrates

I could actually see this correct in the next 24 to 48 hours into a much cleaner phase if indeed the Nstream dives in more aggressively as a correction. In that model ... cold air gets entrained in the mid levels - fascinating dynamical system like you're supposed to get December go wonder I just see that all as not impossible and seeing as we've been sort of on course towards impossibility it's nice to see any possibility at all I don't know if that makes any sense. Anyway it's not usually far-fetched with such a dramatic PNA rise going on… We may just have yet to see the models correct over North America

Heh .. The problem is that in both American agencies... the CDC and CPC, the PNA is rising smartly through the next seven days That places a bit of a signal in/around early next week anyway over Eastern America I see it as possible that shortly after that wave comes off the Pacific in 48 hours+ that Western Ridge in the backside corrects towards more amplitude and if that's the case that northern stream subsequently digs into the lakes at a steeper slope; that changes the landscape a bit in a hurry

The table is set in the 0z NAM. Just need the northern stream to show up and that gets fantastic in a hurry

Parallel GFS run's shift was demonstrative.

The Euro had a +10 C 850 day in there on the 00z... I'm sure you're aware of that. One thing we always used to sort of lay-person adage: 'first it gets warm, then it gets cold; boom!' ...In a general sense, that works often enough. I'm sure you can just get stuck in a 2015 February and score all the time but that is exceedingly rare... By and large, the former adage works because it is the sensible variation of the H. Archembault correction - ... Gets warm, and to remove it, we gotta storm things up a bit... somethin' like that. So, in a holistic sense, folks should embrace pattern roll-outs and reset ... i.e., warm ups therein: they uh...gee, tend to be a requirement for cyclones for a myriad of reasons. It's all such a dopey pointless waste of argumentative time. wow

Political? Ho -man... Lil' advice... spare your self the utter insanity of trying to wade through those quagmires. Particularly in this day and age, when the internet has coagulated political islands ...schisms self-feedback empowered by merely finding other nimrods that think the same biased way they do. There's a whole sociological crisis afoot actually ...which we probably can take off topic and should from this point forward, but ... sufficed it is to say: in this era of fractured ethos across the greater expanse of culture (meaning, furthering break-downs of common social outlooks), you simply can not engage in any worthwhile intellectual quorum on the Internet wrt to politics, and all the above with comm is only part of the reason why. It's an untenable resulting complexity where vitriol can be the only goal.

I don't know who is really qualified to serve as arbiter in that debate ... but as a passive observer along the way - both sides appear to be responding to resentment and/or semantics the whole time. Now ... y'all on either side may feel more righteous and put off by that compromise ... but as objectively as I can muster, you're arguing through subjective interpretation - that never ends well. One side thinks the other has an agenda, and that annoys them, and only foments further. It's interesting. I've noticed a tendency ...over years actually ( years! ), enough so to prove it's a real phenomenon, people of the public hoi-polloi knee-jerk respond and apply suspicion of other people's intent, first, with less any analytic consideration for what is actually being said. I see it all the time, elsewhere too.. Communication via email at the office? That's an art! I work in a field that has zippo nothing zilch to do with this sort of affair, and it's the same deal. Same exact f'n thing - "Hey, Ashley, can you read this email before I make our department sound like a big azzhole?" Dimes to donuts, that email needs editing because despite all best intentions, some participle or predicate looks like a steaming winking, burning brown-eye. But these are white faces in here. Communication ... as it is scienced, is about 30% words, but ~ 70% music. The music is the intonation, along with the subtleties of a speaker's face and body expressions. This music cannot happen on the Internet. Then, missing that ... the human mind uses the imagination. Oops! Any predisposition in the reader and the imagination of said reader will be happy to construct why they think the other azzhole's intentions are... Doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to see where that ends up...

There's a semblance of anti-GFS agenda going in here this afternoon - not sure what the source/reason is for that bias against it, as it hasn't been altogether horrible this season thus far. Nailed the pancaked Southerly route on the last disappointment ahead of the touted Euro, too... Be that as is may, ...I dunno. Perhaps it's some kind of a defense mechanism to play coy to it while in reality their coveting other ideas. Either way, these solutions 12z to 18z (...06Z on the 10th may as well may as well throw that one in ) were all down right winter-like. I'm curious about these alternative solutions to the Euro... That's all -nothing to get one's knickers in a bunch. But the auto-dismissive attitude is silly. The Ukmet was a possible red flag here... It's early, and it's still technically in the shy side of mid range so time to modulate toward less or more. However, that northern stream fist has been in every GFS run regardless of the southern lead system that is contentious. It's under the radar. In this run's evolution it's going to be starved for moisture, as the southern system (probably) evacuates seaward. It is a very powerful wave mechanic though, which it has been trending. It's not like this solution came out of nowhere. Here's perhaps a novel idea... The GFS corrects toward the Euro and the Euro trophy foists...as it's eating schit because the GFS has the right idea with the northern stream and we end up with a NJ model coastal nick job. Stuff on the table.. .but I guess the "support group's" tenor isn't interested in exploring those. No solution can be ruled out in frenzied fast flow with fire-hose N and S streams whipping around in the runs.

yeah interesting question. Don't know. Just off the cuff I'd say a long, long ways back in time ...But, you know how that goes - we tend to recall the disappointments in our minds with some order of magnitude better clarity and significance ..ha. Just looking at the statistics for a white xmas or not, and it's not really favorable .. We're on average in the 50th percentile in SNE.... The odds do pick up pretty quickly looking N. CON, NH is 70 and it's over 90 in western Maine. But, white means snow on the ground. And that is only 50% ... We'd have to ask first, how often is there actually snow falling in xmas morning. That get's a lot dicier/lower odds. I think with reasonably confidence we can infer that we'd have to go back pretty far to find actual plowable snow on the 25th, back to back years.