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Typhoon Tip

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  1. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I still would not be shocked if the next 10 to 12 days are cash-outs and then head to Vegas
  2. March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

    Well, ...interesting Euro run.. .nice to come back from a good disk golf outing, crack a beer and see 35" of snow for Fitchburg ... zomb! I think the important take away is the potential more so than the particulars of the model run alone. Again...echoing the sentiments above, this particular arrangement looking 'marginal' in the atmosphere at this sort of time lead, tends to verify isothermal in the -2 to 0C range ... This per my own experience, so taken for what you will, but it's a quasi-spring snow type scenario. They will always look a tick or two warmer in the mid and extended range than they tend to verify. Also, echoing the above...the general modeling appeal for a large SD easterly flow component is alarming. I would add QPF to this system's potential. We have several factors that I wouldn't be certain are being modeled that deal with topography/local studies. There is likely to be maxes that exceed the general layout ... one perhaps close to the coast where BL differences between the ocean environment and the land cause a zone of lift - not necessarily the same as CF, however, if the high up north exerts a colder profile in its own rite, that becomes a player for snow totals. Multifaceted threat from flood concerns where it's rain, to a potential crippling snow in the 8/10::1 weighty variety. I certainly don't wanna get ahead... The problem is, the NAO block. It is imposing a tropospheric vent at the same time is helping to direct the easterly flow through a very unusually deep amount of mass moving west into perfect conversion mechanics. I have to also think that tides are a growing concern as successive cycles tend to magnify those sorts of concerns.
  3. March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

    'Course ... Part of me thinks it would be deliciously ironic if we get this -NAO so many have been pining for, for so long .. .only to have our storm component expression of the whole thing end up being 3.5" of cold rain and wind swept cat paws... Wah wah wahhhh
  4. February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

    ? where else were you thinking there would be icing -
  5. Well, sufficed it is to say ... we have reasonable to above normal confidence for a strong, westerly based NAO blocking event throughout the latter middle and extended range, and ..related too, an event that is trackable. We could go into a lot of discussion about the NAO for its own identity and evolution, but, the focus of this thread is on the event scheduled to impact the MA/NE regions from roughly March 1 through the 3rd or 4th, which is obviously directly related. Firstly, this is not likely to be a 'clean' snowy storm. Expectations for rain...perhaps a lot of it, should be in play, particularly in the first half of this. In fact, as is, the models are hitting at cold rain that transitions to snow as the mid levels close off and dynamics work into the N-NW arc of the low circulation. Wind swept cat-paws over to 'parachutes' with occasional thunder. Therein enters a reasonably good chance that a large area will eventually transition to a lot of snow! One thing that is interesting is that the 500 mb heights deepen some 6 to 10 DAM as the axis passes quintessentially underneath LI by about 2 or 3 Deg latitude, descending to 528! That's nooooot usually a rain event at those depths - red flag. This is early speculative on details that are certainly going to change, but ... the focus on this as a meaningful event is warranted at this time (in my mind) as it has some more hemispheric scaled events behind it's emergence. Those tend to have a bit more confidence for occurrence at extended leads. There are a lot of correct-able facets about the details ... we can iron those out as the week progresses. For now, there is a decent agreement from all operational model sources, for an important event of wind and QPF, and one that is associated to the total behavior of the NAO.
  6. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I had to force my self to take a breath late last evening when I was iPhoning through those 00z GFS surface charts ... Jesus... it was like 30 straight hours of easterly flow anomalies clear to the mid tropospheric depths - that's definitely going to over-produce what actually falls out of the sky and bust the model (very most likelly..) too dry anyway, but then adding in that it was marginal/tint negative in the profile and the snow prospect just from the synoptic patterning alone was breathtaking ... I mean, like others, I'm not grousing over particular modeled parameters at this sort of range.. I just go by the general cinema of what that looks like and gee wiz if any 'snow products' based upon QPF say lay ... heh, good luck with with at 15,000 K deep tube of crysospheric h2o pumping west. Funny ...I was thinking yesterday it would be more like Monday before even this amount of coherence was given by the modeling but ..heh, okay - I thought for all intents and purposes the 00z operational GFS and ECMWF were not too distractingly different. I mean ..yar, there's differences there, but in the 50,000 foot look they both have a retrograding -NAO block the forces a closing deep layer vortex under LI... We can quibble over details as the week progresses -
  7. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Heh, I think I see spring already contaminating the models tho ... which may seem counter-intuitive at this particular juncture of deterministic circumstances (ha) ... But, the entire tapestry after this thing, takes on that "nebularity" that's typical of mid altitudes when winter collapses. The blend right now may as well be April 3rd... I discussed this several weeks ago, how every year this happens somewhere between February and mid March, where we start detecting the normalization of the low level thickness gradients ...along with the more chaotic complexion and apparent breakdown of coherency in the planetary wave spaces... all that. I almost think the -NAO business is a natural progression off the breakdown of this particular winter's persistence... And an end game that materializes as an atmospheric sloshing event when the gradient slackens a bit and initially, we are left with latent heat surplus in the total circulation budget. The total evolution of this thing fits perfectly... The flow slows down, encourages heights to rise near Greenland and that propensity drags/encourages the retrograde ...and west she comes across the N Atlantic arc, but when said surplus is exhausted the whole thing breaks down and what are we left with. I am just not sold that the flow gets discerned and coherently cold once we get on the far side of this and another possible event D10-12... After these, I could see this thing going toward the La Nina-esque early spring look ...more like a continuation of the present deeper vision tapestry ... once nearer term consequential events have transpired. In other words (and I could be wrong, sure...) but it would not shock me if these two events over the next 10 days are sort of this winter's last hurrah. Of course, that could be synoptically true, and then being SNE ...we get a weird 4-6" glop event on March 24th just to get the rabble roused ... but "spring" in New England has those built into it. Anyway, every year is different and that sort of seasonal trigger is pulled at different times. I'm talking about the complexion of the models ... perhaps (admittedly) biased by the fact that it's already been 80 F and we are getting days tinted mild like today anyway. Plus... we have modeled marginal events now ... granted, that in its self could be a function of what happens when we don't have an antecedent -EPO ..but marginal events that will tend to verify at 31 when the time comes.. that's also spring incarnate. Which tips my hat to the next point that ... I have seen this time and time again with these marginal events in the models. They show these 'pockets' of -1 at 850mb, dappled inside a general area of +1 C at that level, on the NW arc of coastal lows... and it ends up being isothermal -1 or 0 C blue snow. That's really an under-the-radar warm bias in the lower critical thickness depths where I suspect the models et al don't really properly integrate dynamical cooling back into the on-going maelstrom of the CCB/ comma head regions. So obviously there's some hypothesis to that.. but, I've grown so accustomed to that sort of correction that when I see this sort of mean, such as the 00z, I'm already thinking about a dense snow type. We'll see... Of course. we have to get the storm to happen... just assuming it does..
  8. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Yeah but it's a fun run… Not very often you have an implicit 30 inch blue snow in the interior
  9. February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

    Not sure who contributed what in this thread up to this point… But that looks pretty damn icy to me interior Massachusetts north of the pike
  10. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Meanwhile under the rad at ice storm
  11. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    As far as specific entities for people to bulge panties over ... it may not be something that shows up until Monday or early next week. What that whole mess is that extends from roughly PA to some 1000 nautical miles ESE of NS really is, is a modeled powder keg region. Basically ... a bastion of enhanced probability, one that is in wait of something to be inserted into it - although, that's also predicated on the idea that the operational Euro is too fast in breaking it down/displacing the blocking features... If this run were right, that window of opportunity, albeit valid, invalidates too soon before anything can - heh. we'll see
  12. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    yeah, I can see that being the case... I think the EPS and GEFs are useful there -
  13. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Euro shows more than that... It shows a problem with a handling of the whole NAO construct. It's breaking it down fast ... too fast for the ideas folks have in mind, really. The retrogression from southern Greenland to almost purely integrated into the mid-latitudes over SE Canada in just 2.5 to 3 days is pretty f'n fantastic for one, but... the model is not showing much interest in this thing really being a pattern drive on this run. You know ..in the fun spirit of anthropomorphism ...it's like it has to admit that it has to deal with it and is trying to throw it away as quickly as possible. I will say though ..I have noticed this subtly getting more obvious spanning every cycle now for two days - this tendency to shrink the longevity. Sometimes, .. you see this happen. Then, the block ends up more like the original appeal and lasting longer. Could see that happening. The speed in which the model moves that block en masse so fast across the N arc of the Atlantic Basin seems correctable. If not, what you got there is a bully block careening SW and mashing the storm tack too far S, followed by spring pattern in the extended... replete with the spaghetti flow type that features weak gradients. That part of my sardonic humor last night that has some merit (all humor does ...) is that it's all fragile in the guidance. And it should be... it's the f'n over-rated index of all indexes in play here. The upshot is just that, the uncertainty. The block could correct, and a slower, pinned bomb could easily still be in there -
  14. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    From what I'm seeing in this operational GFS cycle ... the thickness layout is getting mangled for cold air prior to the initial onset of the -NAO's effecting the circulation ... The mid levels have really ample mechanics for some fantastic slow moving Miller B'easts but ... the lax surface thicnkness gradients are normalizing the baroclinic zones too much for coherently focused surface lows... This looks like a page out of any early April -NAO more so than March 1
  15. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Mmm, there is no direct pathway between the AO and the SE ridge in terms of forcing, tho. That's an indirect causality there... with perhaps more than a couple moments of indirection. One thing ... you may know this already but, the AO and NAO merely share domain space. The overlap is ...perhaps 1/3 to 2/5ths the planetary coordinates. This is true all around the hemispheric 'cap' of the AO index's domain space; the EPO also shares domains space similarly ..roughly, similarly. All these teleconnectors are, are regions that are identified as having statistical correlation to other regions. -NAO "tends" to mean higher heights over Greenland, ...and counterbalancing for mass conservation, you have a negative regions - in total = 0 loss. That's really why the correlations even exist... because mass cannot be lost or destroyed.. it's merely moving from point A to B in three dimensional space. Example: You can have a singular node/blocking ridge feature, with a pearled out string of counter-balancing negatives that individually ... one is not sufficiently negative as the ridge is positive, but... 0 loss is achieved in the aggregate - i.e., all of them together ( -L1 + -L2 + -L3 + -L4) + (+H1) = 0 ... or vice versa, (-L1) + ( +H1 + + H2 ...) = 0. The left side of that equation is the constant motion of the three-d mentioned above. So, bringing this home... the AO can be negative and never feature much impact locally to our hemisphere, because all it's counter-balancing phenomenon didn't happen to evolve on our side. More over, the NAO could go through a negative phase state, and the AO can conceivably stay positive at times ...due to the fact that they only share space. So you can't really "assume" a -AO will "combine" with a -NAO to battle the SE ridge... that's not really how it works. And in fact, the SE ridge can remain in place while a -NAO evolves and all it does is compress and blast the hell out of the wind field at mid levels from Texas to Bermuda... .. The SE ridge is really put there by the Pacific for that source of headache tele's ..