Typhoon Tip

I dare you to give 'er a push -

I think we can... Just like tomorrows deal became less as we've approached, it has a chance to minor out some. Tomorrow will be more so felt where you are compared to CT ...or even Brian ( sometimes it curls under if it is shallow enough). BOS is hosed. As is PSM... But back here W of 495 .. seems there is a modest NE wind pulse around 12z tomorrow morning then the winds get really light by mid day, whence I am noticing the pressure exertion is more oriented due S - that 'might' hold the marine boundary layer taint closer to the coast. Anyway, point being ... seeing as nasty BDs at this time of year can still drill 48 F/drizzle strata clear to BDL, I'd call that a relative win. Thermal fields would still support mid 70s where ever the ocean doesn't interfere.

Actually ...no right that makes sense. I didn't notice the UTC in the header I was like wha -

those are the prognosticated 4pm temperatures? Bit if a cool bust if so.. It's 87 to 90 everywhere below ~ 700' els and it's not getting cooler at 4pm. 1,000' ORH is 81 ...

I think there's a small (so far..) possibility of a 'hot burst' ... perhaps a low end variety, out there toward D6. Some ensemble members of the various product sources have been lighting up Ontario with +21C 850 mb, with newly arriving trend to shallow out the Maritime trough. The latter aspect is apparently related to the repositioning of the -NAO block toward the eastern limb. Anyway, that leaves a residual WNW/NW 500 mb flow and it's a possible open unabated synopsis to bring that kind of plume down over the terrain/trajectory that normal cooks the 95 corridor. We'll see if the operational runs start picking up on that - altho the GGEM looks similar at 00z. Overall, agreed ... that D6-13 back-carving deep -NAO related hemisphere idea seems to be in the process of modulating toward less. We'll see if continues. It wasn't altogether very believable to begin with.

Kind of a weak sauce BD ... The 12z MAV is only modestly cooler Monday when compared to what a BDs are more typically capable of - imposing the minimum cost of 25 F off the highs the next day. According to it, and the MET machine, it's still low to mid 70s even as far NE as KBED in former 'aft' side of the boundary. Btw, MAV send KASH to 91 tomorrow ... not bad.

That is really interesting ... You know, this hearkens back to a discussion Liberty' and I had many tens of pages ago, in either this thread or some other one in this sub-forum ... something like two or three years ago at this point, pertaining to a kind of "whiplash effect" - The cleaner air ( smoke discharge from increases in wild fire frequency, world over, notwithstanding ) isn't exactly the same, but perhaps there is some usefulness, as a loose analogy, to demonstrate the 'elasticity' of the Earth's systems. Basically, for decades of warming the Earth's vast multiplex of compensating ( more or less ...) forces have been adapting to the warming world ... Suddenly, the ability to warm is removed: those adaptive forces don't merely turn off... Then what? The whiplash effect is more of a slow moving repulse scenario/idea. Sure. But the aspect above, where the aerosols that cause all kinds of problems ..are reduce rather quickly, and now the sun shines stronger, ... greenhouse gasses are absorbing more LW rad, and that exposes the real potential for heating. In general it shows how supplanted factors get suddenly exposed and become more dominant. It's sort of similar. By the way... the following type of article has been getting published with increasing frequency around the world. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/world/meteorologists-conspiracy-harassment-abuse-climate-intl/index.html It's somewhere between rage inspiring and just flat out comical - perhaps "predictable" is apropos.

Seems there's a modest attempt to back off momentum in the guidance. In general... I get the feel that this is a middling BD for eastern regions, and probably more of a wind shift ... Maybe 10 F type cut back toward CT... 88 to 78 there. But 88 to 65 for SE NH/ NE MA This is actually impressively model imo, regardless of amplitude. The globals hit on this feature like 4 days ago and have been pretty persistent about it. The modeling in general - from what I can tell ... - has vastly improved with these low level events, ... so much so that sometimes they are even over estimating them. It'll be interesting, though incredible nerdly ..lol to see how this one evolves. The Euro at 00z almost looked more like a NNW-SSE moving boundary as opposed to a BD. That may be why some of the cooling is backed off slightly from that model, because it's not mashing up the GOM heat sink ... Figures... my buddy's invited the whole circuit of us to his pool party.

Meg Griffin the GGEM ...? haha. That model was very much less aggressive with that whole -NAO back loading/retrograde idea that the others are [probably] going to be more correct about, just too deep/amplified. It offers up early heat into N-W New England and probably d-slopes us with it... with seemingly no end in sight. The things is ... I'm suspicious ( not that anyone's asking me here ..) of that N Atlantic and Maritime Canadian look. I don't see how/why there is any upstream R-wave forcing across the Pac relay throughout the N/A continent that necessitates all that cumulative height depth formulating there. As a result, it's sending the NAO down to cold Hades by virtue of deltas in the other direction. I don't think teleconnector computations really know the difference. So we get that index that challenges climo ... while the operational Euro and GFS both seem to be non-dispersive, relative to there ensemble means .. which is fine, but en masse they all look weirdly unbalanced with the R-wave distribution. The GGEM also looks weird though. Lol The flow at hemispheric distinction is clearly slacked off and breaking down seasonally - that may be red flag in general not to trust the shape and amplitude out there in time. I dunno

Yeah...I'm not sure how superficial the PDO modulations we have been observing really are ( or not...). They could easily be explained by transient pattern-related sea-surface wind stressing... Perhaps we are heading into a +PNA summer? ... still, as June ages onward, the R-wave coherency may limit that suggestion up there and some of the wind patterning may move toward a boreal summer footprint and the SS goes with it. Not sure -

The Euro backed off aloft a little with the wholesale BD mechanics yet the surface evolution is even more aggressive jeez.

Can't wait to see the monthly global state of the climate pub for May... Mid latitude eastern N/A continent with a blue hole when the rest of the world is killing species

JMA did really well, too

Well wouldn't you know ... the models just couldn't resist and now they've engineered a BD for Memorial Day... It's more or less defined depending which guidance, Euro being strongest ... GGEM between the GFS which is weakest, but they all have it. Thing is, the GOM and whole Labradorian rectal realm is still holding back shockingly chilly farts at this time of year ... So, when/if the model physics detect boundaries moving SW like that, we have to be leery of the reality being a 1,500' slab of chillier air at very low levels that hints aromas of cold Atlantic low tide, even as far inland as 30 or 40 miles. I've scented that in Ayer in the past, and I'm west of 495 by 10 miles... The reason for this is they are introducing a stronger trough diving out of NE Quebec toward the outer Maritime region, whilst also opting to lower heights over us little over previous runs. So that fans a cold from SE aft, demarcating the SW moving dense air and there's no way to stop it ... Fwiw - it's not unusual at all around here to fail a clean move into a warm pattern without that kind of interruption yanking the temperature back for 30 hours. That's precisely what the models are attempting to do; a total evolution between Sat and later next week that contains a BD interrupt. Saturday bounces back from today and tomorrow's local time span nadir, Sunday is the warm day, and then Monday gets butt banged by 10 am and all those cook outs end up under 54 F strata - Boston Celtic's pattern Doesn't mean it has to happen... but the 00z was D4.5 ... and it would almost make sense that this 12z, being D4 ... would be the window of performance thing where the models get more coherent all at once, and then all these forecasters have to face the music. Hopefully not in favor of BD - ...