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Typhoon Tip

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  1. Exactly what - is that some reverse psycho-babble thing? The purpose at hand: those of us who are interested in the greater ambit of Meteorology and weather phenomenon, find the ensuing changes quite fascinating I'm sure.
  2. yeah not shocked... per all discourse heretofore and looking forward, i think semblances more akin than not to this are favored in the models. comical almost ...how lying in wait there is a hurricane in the western Caribbean rattling around -
  3. Yup Scott ... General reader: 'was going to expound on it all but ...no need now I will a little, anyway, because I'm a certifiable ranter - Pretty straight forward -EPO exertion results (perhaps) from WPO domain space changes transmitting down stream... (What is intriguing is that initially, the MJO is out of phase with this showing a robust, present presentation in early Phase 5 at moderate to strong strength. It does eventually rocket thru 6 ..but then collapses near 7 ... but, by and large, that evolution is partially out of phase, which is interesting. I've always thought the MJO was more of a positive vs negative feed-back forcing, so, mm... it's not absolutely necessary for that particular index to be in sync with the rest of the hemisphere - ) Additionally, "Lan" will positively feedback on many of these changes by dumping huge latent heat fluxes in the down stream evolving nodes of the maelstrom that will benefit from that physically. The is the slightly longer version of the 'recurving typhoon' signficance Anyway, pretty rhetoric aside, I feel there is some chance that these changes that are readily observable among the operational runs, as well as their related ensemble indexes, could actually be more amplified... These sort of big mass-field 'teleconnector convergent' deals tend to hammer and accelerate the pattern a bit beyond the models when they occur. That's the slightly longer version of, don't be surprised if the impending cold wave is a bit more proficient. Which immediately lends to the question regarding winter and chances therein ...but we'll set the table first if that's alight. Regardless, the lights just came on at the pub. This party appears to be in last call this week. I agree that initially the basic wave spacing argument nods to the Northern Rockies and out through the plains, but, I have a separate hypothesis that suggests for me that the cold could accelerate E/S but a little. The PNA is being unseated like a third year Trump by the EPO...and that means that initially, the EPO cold load might benefit from a better wave spacing construct compared to if/when the PNA were initially flatter prior to the EPO's onset. Also, the NAO is showing signs of accelerating negative, which I don't believe is related to those Pac changes, and becomes a dark horse for the circulation structure E of 100 W (Lakes upper OV, NE)... Interesting stuff. You know I was tongue and cheeking when I mentioned 'first snow in sight' in that other thread last night ...but this is more than less that thought criteria there.
  4. yeah ... this is more along the lines of why the question was ask. this isn't looking (at this time...) like your average run-o-the-mill annoyingly warm october we got going on here. maybe such enormous departure means something - i dunno. if we put up a couple of +20 diurnals on top of running +7s ...then fail to comp in the back end than it's pretty much an official freak-tober. kinda like the march back in ... 2011?
  5. has anyone done a roll-forward analysis off a +5 or even +9 October ? 'Course, I'm beginning to wonder if this October is uniquely hot - as in, historically so. Like, no one would know what the ensuing winter did off this sort of October because, heh, it's never happened. MOS/GFSX is pushin' 20 over climate for Sat/Sun with two days to go, so ... we could be sporting low 80s those afternoons. And I wonder if the nights are too low in those numbers given to this processed air mass with creeping DPs ... yes it will decouple some with the long nights but that's a long way to go and I suspect if the highs and synoptics pan out, with high pressure firmly situated S and counter flow continental breezes ... 44 seems a little deep. We'll see... but I'm still wondering what the ensuing winters did off the top 10 warm Octobers. My guess is 6 out of 10 of them were warmer than normal, leaving enough suggestion in the other way to spark the perfunctory vitriol.
  6. I'm amazed to see some MOS products capping climo by 19 for Saturday and Sunday... jesus. Lows in the mid 40s by night? ...heh, I wonder. Nights are long but are they long enough. If the air mass really is on the order of +4 or +5 SD heat like that, one must wonder if climate normalizing is tainting that
  7. There's some Sandy hints in some of those ensembles ...heh
  8. "Seasonally chilly" ? My, depends what people think is normal... That trough is way deeper than normal - seasonal chilly is the inverse of having one's expectations a little high, I think. But that's me... Annnywho, it seems the Pacific is trying to change - it's got enough legs in terms of persistence to wonder if it's not lies. Thing is, no sooner, the 18z operational Good For Schit model immediately reloads the eastern ridge like you were mentioning. This time of year, tele's can flip out as commonly as operational versions - gotta remember that. Gotta get Halloween out of the way...
  9. It's an interesting hang up going on in here between perceptions. To me, this ridging is like the ridging we couldn't seem to sustained longer than a proverbial ten minutes ... all summer long. Now, those that privately took joy from that fact, are like, ... paying the piper in getting warmth when they don't want it. Funny ...if not poetic in some ways. Meanwhile, the poster's right. It may take decades (more, and yes "OR LESS") ... but, climate models very much do predict two baser aspects will inevitably occur with GW: 1 .. the cold season starts later and ends earlier 2 .. the climate bands migrate north This can all fail...sure... f'n comet impact (ha). Or obviously more likely ... a series of unanticipated volcanic events. Should the latter occur...obviously that murks up the picture quite a bit. Excluding those off-chance compensating scenarios, your winters are eroding whether you want to admit it or not ... The difference (if not "put-off savior") is that it may not kill THIS winter outright. If this winter sucks, it probably will suck for numerous other reasons. Circa 2071 ... if continuing along the same course of environmental resources for profligate gain forms of industry? Those same climate models that have nailed the sea level rise and other aspects, prooobably will be right about winter being an entirely different climate experience at our latitude. In the meantime, for me personally ...I am going to be on the look out for that over abundant gradient issue we've seen two years running...It's hard to run a good storm production winter with 90 dm of heights on the charts between JB and Floriday like all the f'n time. The flow is too fast and thus sheared ...Regardless of how deep troughs look in runs and so forth, that factor mitigates relative to... whatever you are getting as a result of said trough, some part of it was stolen and absorbed away into the back ground ranging wind velocity of the planetary maelstrom when you have that HUGEmangous atmospheric grand canyon in place.
  10. +7 and change at all major climo sites mid way thru the month is getting impressive. Pattern supports a mire of abv normal with one or two temporary cool downs ... at least thru the 23rd. We'll see if that last week goes out of its way to tarnish and damage the legacy of a ridiculous month. It's an interesting allegory ... it's almost like sport fandom mania. One side, the cold, they want no part of that outlook and fear their losing here at half time. They don't care if the last week of the month tarnishes something Meteorologically rare to come by, a month > +5; all they care about is that 4th quarter come back, whereby they somehow win if that last week carves out four days of -10 ... which would in reality belie the significance of the rest of the game.
  11. Baby steps I suppose. The GEFs derivatives are pretty well clustered around a PNA regime change taking the next two weeks really to materialize. But that EPO is ugly. Gotta start somewhere, and since either of those two index can sometimes precede the other, perhaps there is hope that beyond there will be some climate correction in here ... 'Course, the best way to arouse a complete reversal is to get me to assess anything at all - anyway, it's been a while since we've had a bona fide warm October. I'd be curious to see what happened in Novembers following a +2 or +3 SD Octobers.
  12. the more think about this winter and the leading known large scale signaling the more I think it's stunning candidate for a whopper N/S... that means No Skill in predictive parlance. In my mind it could break either way ... really, with 50/50 odds. Not sure what the consensus is here, or elsewhere but I'm not sensing or analyzing much more than noise. Neutral cool ENSO is in the climate window of variability ...that's A B, Global Warming pretty much dictates that in the absence of a compensating forcing, the base-line tendency will average decimal points above the previous 30 to 50 year mean. That's just logic... If the slope is positive, those numbers have to be coming from SOMEwhere. C, that SOMEwhere has not always been New England.. As I've pointed out numerous ignored times ... one of the only cool off-set nodes over the planetary medium has been persistently over eastern Canada for months on end ...wobbling around there but never far from home. We've had above normal months, many of them. It's just that ours come in last most of the time.. Anyway, that may help the winter enthusiasts cause, ...a little, but, in the absence of an obvious countermanding signal it's likely to still be abv the normal somehow... some way. Lastly, the AO and the shared domain spaces of the EPO and NAO ... they are hypothetically if not theoretically supposed to be entering a multi-decadal negative tendency. WHEN exactly that stops f'n around and actually happens, time will tell...or maybe it has and we're just greedy? I dunno.. but, as NCEP has dully noted in their seasonal outlooks more in recent years/autumns, regions from the Lake to OV and NE have increased potential of countermanding a warm signal due to the poorly understood and/or predictive skill involved with the polarward mass-field indexes. Put A, B, C, and I guess D in a crucible, it melts down to "Pingggg ... heads or tails"
  13. GW is effecting the models ... one can plainly see it - normally we get this sort of 300+ hour snow storm depiction out of a GFS operational run by the end of August...
  14. not that it means much ... but from the stuff i've read and struggled to stay awake through ... the QBO seems to be an "emergent" correlation with other stuff - or indirect in other words. Like, -NAO = cold in Chicago? That is more of a direct correlation...if even suggested causality, because -NAO blocks (west based in particular) means that your tending to drill NW/N flow through Manitoba due to baser wave spacing arguments and there you go - cold in Chicago. Same for the -EPO ... Those are direct correlations. The QBO on the other hand is vacillatory with that 18 mo ~ periodicity as other's noted. It is also very regular. It doesn't have stochastic behavior that remotely is in the same category of other direct cause and effect/affect type patterns of behavior in the atmosphere. In fact, that sinusoidal regularity is like the pulsar beat of neutron sun in a lot of ways; i.e., prooobably in the intuitive sense is locked into some sort of planetary momentum/ ..perhaps even orbital eccentricity balancing and weird outre stuff like that. Because of the suggestion there of having utter disparate geo-physical causes to the behavior of the QBO compared to other teleconnectors/time dependencies therein for land and sea, it doesn't seem likely that one "causes" the other - that's sort of easy logic? But, it "could be" (doesn't seen flawed to think anywho...) that east or west based mass fluxes at any level in the atmosphere can and probably "mathematically" should have some sort of positive or negative feedback on the entire circulation behavior. Almost seem obvious when we think about it... anyway, just my 2 cents. If there is a correlation between east vs west QBO's and the state of the cryosphere, the AO ...or blue whale fornication habits... it seems more likely to me that they are because all of them are plugged into the geo-physical earth more so than one-another. Having said all that, correlation is correlation - it doesn't say anything at all about causes. If the QBO tends to be in one phase when x,y,z happens...oh well.