Typhoon Tip

Heh... I'd watch that... The fact that the N/stream didn't come down and phase more with those antecedent features looks dubious to me. Not tryin' to storm monger but that looks a little odd at D9 how it has that little tiny nuke E of MA with while the entire majesty of the full latitude trough is anchored to JB like that - that's a look I suspect will change on the next runs(s)

D 7/8's got a decent prelude set up ...not sure it'll do anything with it on this run... but, with the EPO ridge dislodged and drifting into NW Canada, it should push that SPV fragment S and into that "dent" in the field over the Missouri Valley region... The flow over the Gulf and Florida and so forth is also less compressed ...

You know it's true .... that 'entitlement'? or maybe that's a little too strong of a word, but it does seem to lead a failure to recede back into one's climatology on some level or another. Prior to the demise of Eastern WX ... the mid-Atlantic folk were insufferable - and I'm not sure whether you, or anyone else reading this ... , were part of the 2002-2009 era, but particularly in the earlier years, they did not cordon off "sub-forums" by region. It was a very different culture. Not judging...just sayn'. Anyway, 1996 utterly RUINED them folks. I don't know what was worse, the storm, or... the unmitigated sense of feeling ripped off every year after the fact ...at least through 2006 before they came back to Earth and seemed like their tone and tenors were not as offended by mere normal PHL climate. 1996, in case folks are wondering, is the year of the great Megalopolis Blizzard... They've had other extra-ordinary winters in the MA since. 2010 leaps to mind... but, we haven't been interacting with those cats down that way nearly as intimately since American came on line, and is heavily sub-forum contained. So who knows what their expectations are like now... Course, in 15 years of weather social media shenanigans ... it's unlikely the same users are there anyway. Point is, I know what you mean and I agree. It seems years like 1996, 2010... 2015 ... 2008 ..whatever, we tend to spin up hopes pretty high and have to crash pretty hard when dr reality serves a dose of sanity.

I'm just ribbing back - ...but mine are meaner and assholier it's the way I roll

Okay ...so,.... mmyeah, okay. Some models trying to come back with a bit more amplitude and so forth for that critical Feb 27 through March 5 (or so...) time span. But, part of the problem with the guidance ...particularly at this range, is what I was just commiserating with Ray about, ...the flow is too fast for phasing. The GFS actually came about half way back... the GGEM has a tantalizing solution where southern stream deep west Atlantic low is just missed capture. I think Scott's advice is salient ... prooobably not a lot of determinism outside of 4 days in this particular set of circumstances..

No relationship... The main focus was actually the Pacific SSTs on the winter circulation... I digressed into aeronautics ... about fluid dynamics wrt to wind resistance... which solar radiation is effecting airline personnel is a separate matter.

Meh, it was directed at Ray... I don't care if either of you get enlightened and/or engage in any endeavor to do so...

Cut, just so clear... that is a different rooted phenomenon to what Ray and I were just discussing... You may be using that other discussion as a segue but, that's different phenomenon.

Mm... deeper than all that.. I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - Firstly, ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina. As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not. Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental. It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina. SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds. I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation. NCEP also recently published a statement in their ENSO write up ... that it does not appear the Pacific anomaly has ever yet coupled to the circulation system of the atmosphere so... It's just been a non-factor, which leads no where else. Did you know that some airline reported 730 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week. That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway. Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom. Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji. This was something outta of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles only not so haha. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds... The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to... These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.

EPS is utterly devoid of that mid week thingy too - ...at least per 00z. In fact, I'm rather bemused at everything this morning. Not that anyone asked - But, there's all but one storm, granted a robust one ... for western Ontario ...Otherwise, with two to perhaps three intensely deepy -EPO cold dump events track-able throughout the Euro run (for example), we are left being sold that nothing necessarily happens of consequence between those oscillations that span some 0C to -30C at 850s, along with concomitant wave roll-outs. ..... nothing else. Hmm. I guess. Oh, there are other cyclones dappled about the hemispheric space, but they are fractal blips ... gone upon the next run. There's no like clad signal ...anywhere. It really is rather remarkable. The thing is, they are all doing this... Not just the Euro. The GFS is clearly suffering from velocity induced "ripping" in the W-E coordinate...by the way. I really suggest people get their heads around this concept limitation... perhaps even start modulating a "butt f*" index into their seasonal outlooks. Ray's? shit ... it woulda been spot on... if he had only included this one factor - if he had known about velocity saturation and this secondary interference problem ... this piece of utter shit resultant winter might have naturally fallen out of that arithmetic of factors. Little tongue in cheek there... ha... but... see, part of the problem really is what I feel is a static problem with subtropical height abundance ( a positive anomaly that may be unnoticed of sorts...) that is girdled the hemisphere from HA all the way around to the N. Atlantic. As mid ...now late winter height nadir reaching its maximum depth presses down from higher latitudes... it's defaulting the whole scope and scale into a hurried over abundant velocity rich environment. And one that is destructively interfering against more organized systemic events. Some pricey words there ...but, just think of it this way (for the lay folk) ... it's hard to organize a marching band with hyperactive kids.

00z NAM looks warm

I dunno ... 170 lbs... figure 10:1 and go from there... If 1700 lb is a cubic yard of liquid water, that implies 1700/10:1, which is the thus (1700/10) X 1 = 170 But ...real life seldom resembles real numbers... If you "fill" snow into a yardXyardXyard bin... it's probably highly aerated and therefore, not really 10:1... more like 20 :1 or perhaps 15 ...or something less dense than 10:1 ... So you gotta kinda use your head.

Euro tries to plunk a chunk of vortex down but stalls it in the upper OV... Need that to get south but ...that's about in the right spatial-temporal window there...

yeah I just don't spend enough time going and ferreting this stuff out. I thought that was euro - heh

oh duh... wonder why I didn't think to go look for European sites seeing as they're like 5 hours ahead ... oy. cool, stanks -