Typhoon Tip

This is called 'wishing the time away' one day you'll regret doing that ... particularly if you succeed in finding that perception .. just sayn

Echoing Brian ... been mention that same tenor and reasons why as of late That said another insidious repeating theme that has been taking place is this opposite pattern immediately morphing upon the posting veracious arguments ... Jesus Christ, but we'll see if this had legs

ah... shucks.. need to either slow that up or speed it up and we'd bee in business over the weekend -

1. nope 2. maybe/likely

well...like I said, it's just what I observed - DP of 80 may be so.. we can certainly look it up. but, the point I was making is that it wasn't 105 to 110 F - I think we can all agree there.. Also .. dancing around the notion that the GFS was under performing on DP ... which proobably attributed to its temp side soaring so high. It did that in the March nor-easter earlier that spring, too, when it had nearly 3" of QPF in rain at 39/33 F ... seemed to carry on with an issue handling basic thermodynamics despite all conceits

nah.. No, I was just using that as launch point - heh ...my bad. I'd go with Brians assessment on that ... not uncommon for June as you know. Rains...sun pops out...steam off the street and feels like waves off buffalo dung As far as what i said after lift off ... it's true though. DP is registering higher -

No one said it was...

There are already peer reviewed materials available to periodicals and even paraphrased if folks care to look... for free, that elucidate the increased in elevated DPs actually happening. It's a single data point? granted. But, that old narrative about a single point doesn't make the climate is a cozy hide-behind that doesn't face that fact that the climate makes such a point more likely to occur ... ( Not you , per se.. I'm just sick of hearing the assholes say the former strategically) Anyway... I'm not so sure 80 is more or less common without the solar input. That's gonna be tougher at 40 N and above. But what is likely to occur more and more... DPs > 70 in general..but also, more cloudiness.

I know I've brought this up in the past but ...those who are serious about atmospheric phenomenon and the general sphere of Meteorological Sciences ( and the concomitant flop-over into climate ) really should be aware that elevating DP is a phenomenon both consistent with observations globally, but also theoretically expected in global warming...

The highest I personally observed of the temperatures that maxed out through that ordeal during the first week of July 2018 was 97 one afternoon ... otherwise, 93 to 95 were more common. I don't know what others observed ... or what there personal Davis'/obs stationed recorded for that journey .. but that's what I observed around my town and of NWS .. Some 10 to 15 F less than those 2-meter GFS numbers, albeit with unusually high DP, verified more commonly. At one point I think I recall seeing 96/76 contributing the maximum HI. At our latitude, it gets hard to exceed that temperature at that water vapor metric. Typically... our 102's happen at/< 70 People will always have those apocalypse charts on their phones and/or desktops ...whatever it is they used to access the web, and will occasionally bleed them out as though that really happened... but, no ... ( just in case anyone thinks it did ). heh.. .yeah the GFS of old had a pretty bad psuedo-adiabatic handling in the BL for whatever reason - we'll see if this recently promoted FV3 inherited the same issues. ----- seems to me we are destined to a perfect summer. Not too cold. Not too hot. ...though obviously that includes times where it may be annoyingly cool or very warm, notwithstanding. Just in general. Looking over June, it hasn't been bad from a sensible perspective alone - though taken with a grain' ..this is my personal druthers talking. We've been parsing out these top 20 if not top 10 days with nearly ideal intervals of beneficial, non-flooding rains of sufficient proportions for pan-systemic hydro needs, top and bottom... And if that seeming "weather modification net" forced timing were not enough, the rain happens during the week when many are heads down at work anyway. In fact, the rain days have either been at night, or... tending to clear at 4 to 6 pm ... it's like weirdly perfect. Anyway, just watching the Euro the last .... three weeks, when the flow is amplified... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada. When the flow relaxes... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada... When the pattern changes... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada... God decides to end the cosmos and reality as we know it... he can't stop the f'ing NW trajectory out of eastern Canada. It's really been remarkable.. but the gist is, no matter what happens or what patter variation set in ...we WILL BE plagued be ... you guessed it, a NW trajectory out of eastern Canada. Europe swelters in another along the increasing frequency in recent decades of death heat waves ... NW trajectory out of eastern Canada.

https://phys.org/news/2019-06-mercury-climbs-europe-braces-summer.html

At a glance ... the Davis' in the area tied into the network over at Wonder give the illusion of the modest cool bust on the part of machine-interpretative guidance ... but, this does not appear to be the case at offical NWS sites. This happens frequently... People's backyards, ... town squares and thoroughfares, as well as the way they sensibly feel, are all warmer than NWS' official sites. It occurs to me... MOS is in part climatized - which is to say ... the farther out in time range, it weights climate in... that's supposedly in hopes to stop the MOS from ballooning ( overly depressing ) high and lows in extremes synoptics ... D 7's 'll be happy to throw up a 104 at Caribou Maine if they let it ha.. Anyway, the numbers averaged for the climate are not taken from the, "people's backyards, ... town squares and thoroughfares, as well as the way they sensibly feel" sources ... So, when the area Mets rely upon the MOS, they are likely to be advertising numbers that are going to seem dimmed compared to where most of civility lurks. Good Mets know not to take MOS verbatim but you'd be surprised.

actually ... after tomorrow the GFS leaves the region in goop marginal atmosphere until the weird looking N-S plunging violation of physics cleans house later in the weekend... good for TCU side lit towers

12z NAM is more unstable... regionally - not sure it will/would translate to whatever folks have in mind, but... get west of the marine influence with those RH fields suggests some SB CAPE production under less stable LI's than the previous model cycle. I've mentioned this in the past, the NAM isn't a terrible model for convective initialization ... We seem to be teetering for tomorrow, oscillating just above and below neutral buoyancy in the NAM.

Why ... just for the yee-haw shits and giggles ?