Typhoon Tip

Smoke + solar min = early flush ?

The 9 years I've lived at this location... this is typically the complexion of this tree on or around October 10... reaching pinnacle expression around the 13th or 14th of the month... This year is an early anomaly by 2.5 weeks... That's "pretty" substantial -

It's an excessively charge and sensitive flow due to higher energy/potential available.. Early season trough expression is imposing an enormous gradient between the polarward side of the polar jet, dipping to almost the OV as it is... and the lingering summer tapestry that is roughtly SFO -HAT remaining... Small perturbations that tap into that latent potential may be blowing out of proportion..that pressure depiction there appears constructed out of that as it is unnaturally discrete relative to the surrounding integration - it is actually does sort of look a little like a captured tropical entity without actually having had one being captured - that's usually some sort of a-bomb feedback BS in the model(s) when we see this -

This is for early awareness only, for enthusiasts and on-going interests therein. Nothing specific ( yet ) to hone in on, but the canvas is certainly there in my opinion .. and a growing impression/expectation for an early winter-like weather expression. The proceeding is based upon personal environmental awareness and teleconnections, combined. As most are aware, the recent operational model types have unanimously all been signaling an anomalous +amplification mode of the Perennial North-American Pattern heading into the mid range, and extending beyond .. well into week-2 .. for many day's worth of runs. As a foreshadowing suggestion, I don't see why an exaggerated early season PNAP pattern, oscillating between neutral to above normal - won't persist very deep into next month, as prescribed the bevy of teleconnectors/tools therein. In and of itself, western ridges and eastern troughs happen at this time of year and they do not have to necessarily signal much. But we have more to consider. ( As hypothetical side note ... where/whence the solar clock has all but extinguished the sun's ability to offset early season cold loading into the N. American continent ..., that normalcy is happening through an ongoing smoke/particulate aerosol surplus - prooobably that has alleviated and/or dispersion extinguished in recent weeks... But, how much so, and ..I also want to point out that the coupled upstream nature of this flow orchestrates yet another period of ginormous heights over the western U.S. - that anomaly will bring a resurgency ( to some "degree" lol ) of enough dessocating heat .. working on a landscape still reeling from the earlier amplitude of similar thematic arc which brought 101 to San Francisco while it was snowing in Denver! And unfortunately more fires that will add to this dimming study. Particularly above the 50th parallel, the governing pattern combined with seasonal solar loss, combined with cooling insolation sheltering.. may play an interesting feedback role in augmenting the air that does pool into climate loading region(s). It may be a subtle ...almost too subtle of a factor to readily quantify, but the "synergy" of finding the cooler solution at least excuse might show up in the gestalts ) We have seen this type of pattern evolve more frequently than not ...since ~ 2000, during autumns. This is the multi-decadal trend, and it is one that is autumnal. I have floated numerous "science-fiction" as well as plausible hypothesis as to why this is occurring - and the foundation for those insights is both apriori, existential...as well as empirically based ( found here in chapter 5 as a primer - https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ... https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/5/ ) .. So tfwiw .. this year is following right in with this trend-signal. I don't see any reason to offset the assumption that October ( and probably November too - ) will write their chapters similarly with cold incursions that are either interrupting otherwise normal or even slightly above normal temperature departures as intervening. Each whiplash cool back could snow... Part of climate change ( hint hint ) was modeled over the generations of the science, to be hugely variant. Having big temperature oscillations either side of the polar jet in October is too obviously related to that to ignore... Leave it at that. The teleconnectors: ... These are the GEFs-based ones. I find it interesting that recently an increase ( supposedly ) in the capacity of the GEFs for longer range prediction ( and methods therein) were brought on line, and then almost immediately I've observed a rather impressive 'adjustment' toward a colder complexion - one that ...frankly fits the multi-decadal trend. ... I suspect the imm (left) dip in the PNA is probably in the process of correcting less ...how much .. either way, the longer term mass of the members/mean therein suggest the PNA is attempting to maintain a positive bias. There is no MJO modulation of this coherently available at this time - This somewhat reminds me of the early season teleconnector spread that lay in wait ahead of the October 2011 snows that took place that month. Not sure if folks recall or not...that was not so much of a fluke relative to pattern - it was only a fluke relative to climatology. Fact of the matter is, the EPO/PNA-NAO arc all were aligning a cold pattern week(s) prior to the big event, and... there was a sneaking appetizer snow fall and puffy wet aggregate event that car-topped a chilly afternoon and early evening a week prior. So, the signal was successfully ferretted out of the teleconnector spread ... as the combined weigting of two concurrent cold events in the same period was formulaic and not just weird. I frankly don't see that we are in a different climate mode compared to 9 years ago ( I can't believe that was 9 years - wow ). It seems the unusually fast flow is building early seasons heights over western N/A ...exaggerating early season cold loading potentials and ...eventually Octobers and certainly Novembers, the dim solar insolation combined with that augmented curved flow becomes over bearing and climate suggestions are falling increasingly by the wayside do to the weight of those concurrent factors. Here we see a teleconnector spread that is set in ( whether by upgraded GEFs or not...), and given decadal trends combined with other environmental factors perhaps more hypothetic.. the table sets in my mind to snow in October yet again. Hard to imagine perhaps as I type this in 83 F heat ... but, this warm spell now and over the nearer time ranges was also well handled by the models, too.

Snow in October

It's hard to imagine ...given that trough's scale of anomaly and apparent persistence as suggested by modeling ...how any region from the SE to the NE U.S. is going escape raining episodes after ... Day 4 or so... Thing is, that trough still is not in the near term..it's still mid range...

This always happens on Oct 10 ..huh, ...I mean...with that salmon mix zone? That's like riding a winter cyclone up a cold wall, mid winter form ... not just some dynamical core of cat pawing there Here's the problem I'm having with this... I think it is more plausible now, than it was in 1980 [ enter climate modulation/causality here ] For one, ... decadal trend: forget geophysical reasoning/mechanism, it's snowing in Octobers some 1/3 to 1/2 of the years since 2000; prior to then? ... just existentially off the top of the head ...maybe 3 times in 30 years. Something is promoting these early season "folded synoptic" flow constructs - which is just personal labeling of a phenomenon to arc the flow in western Canada and concomitantly plumbing heights S over the eastern continent - as an autumnal affliction.

No ... I was responding to a specific persons... Otherwise? readers that expect to be served instant fun and pleasures without thinking as a way of life -

Couple aspects about SAR CoV-2 that I always think about ... One is, this business of a vaccine - .. hopefully the ballast of the population understands: A vaccine does not cure COVID-19? It only protects individuals, but ... that goes like 'a person is smart, but people are stupid.' It will prevent individuals from getting a particular strain of SAR CoV-2 ( mutation(s)), but society will always have those. The H1N1 outbreak that seemed to "origin" in the spring of 1918 (Kansas), is still with us today. The main arc of the 'outbreak' and uncontrolled horror of that was wrought did so spring of 1918 through to autumn of 1919 ( although I have read that by April of 1919 that was really when new cases become more a sporadic occurrence in smaller enclaves of cities). We are at month 9 give or take a couple of months on the front side, of COVID-19'r wrath - there's evidence like we've all heard that some ancestor of this thing may predate last mid-winter but that's ongoing ... Point being, we are roughly only half the the H1N1 pathogenic gestation. We have advantages that may shorten that time range - but there is a tendency for impatience ... which is utterly rooted faux expectation? What are people thinking there? But that "Spanish Flu" as it became to be known is the ancestral root of these Influenza A and B strains that modern tech perennially still has to modulate new vaccines for every year. It appears likely COVID-19 is destined to the same "population management," but not completely eradicated - it's pathogenicity isn't controllable in that sense. Which by virtue of having some form of control at all, I guess steps it down from crisis mode.. and people can stop wearing masks to run out to the store for f'um eggs. Two is the sociological aspect... Society did return to the previous dynamic ( norm) after the Spanish Flu. I keep hearing this 'dystopian vision' that sounds like headline incendiary rhetoric to me ... that things will 'never be the same same same same...' Bullshit! Since we all know that history is both a reasonable guide, and ... Humanity more typically than not ... will repeat it ... that does not tempt one to envision a future that is inherently responsible to any background risks left smoldering in the aftermath future off this thing. NO way.. when 'threat' falls below criticality ... humans lower fear through time, exposure and familiarity. They'll get back to living lives, at earliest INconvenience to do so... The Meh effect kicks in, almost out of necessity... - and 'managed' public health concerns fit into this backseating tendency. I mean that should just be expected - imho - quite intuitively and apriori -based. So, I am sure I share in this 'worldly' opinion like most with any modicum of introspection ... that are not immediately in"FLU"enced by either CNN or Fox News' wordsmithing headline demagoguery for profit.. that COVID-19 is always going to be there .. but a combination of a working vaccine and familiarity reduces fear and through that pathway society will do exacty what it's done before and 10 years from now this will have been absorbed into the annuls of other failed world-ending lore. I just personally cannot wait to take the leverage out of mass -media's profit zapping

You know .. when I first opined that it was droll-intended.. sort of tongue-in-cheek cynical take on things. But, upon further thought, that whole rah-rah- championing the heroes of yester-millenia, doesn't really (ethically) excuse anything - it is in fact, irrelevantly applied whenever the topic comes up in the context of "yeah, BUT" - SO what?. That whole trope portrait of ancient 40 year-old leathery faced scurvy ridden ... walking both ways ...up hill in blizzards bear-foot while sucking on bacon jerked tobacco vitamins, because they didn't know any better than to us the daily leeches on their hemorrhoids .. What does that have to with people sucking off the entitlement teet of industrial affluence? Nah, it comes off as an auto- response, where/when tactically... one hears some semblance of truth in there ... (which yar, they didn't have our advantages - okay) so they suspend any objective evaluation and assume it's okay to continue engaging in whatever...? Aside from typology, such urban legends usually don't hold up when intellectual weighting of facts or even 'realistic worldly' impressions of history are comparatively involved. Seems tactically morally evasive ... I mean culture is not all bad, no. But frankly, the perils facing humanity ... from environmental horrors looming, to overpopulation giving rise to Pandemics and back... we can't even say these plights are self-chosen, because that central point of 'entitlement' conditions people right passed such introspection or self-restraint. There's no connection ... it's just 'where's my ranch-dressing hose.' We are wandering proverbially sightless through a wonder of extravagant stimuli, programmed to an assumption of delivery like helpless chicks in a nest with their mouths agape waiting for their next tasty meal .. cluelessly salivating. I'm no sociologist .. .but, we take an immensely powerful engine of ingenuity, the collective engineering mind of Humanity ( which in a philosophical sense..is proving to be one of the greatest geological events in planetary history), apply it to a natural setting submerged in volatile and reactive chemistries, and with all that potential ... out pops hero educators struggling to make ends meet, and Wall Street, demagogue presidents, and would it even shock if future historians uncover ... cures for ailments that were kept under wraps because large Pharma would go out of business if managed care no longer required cyclical drug application... List goes on - Not saying that is Jerry or singling out any one or group as doing that... but western culturally rooted modernity's ongoing, teeming interaction ends up painting a distasteful gestalt from a distance.. And, that counterpoint oft employed to justify it .. it is a fallacy at water coolers, parking lots outside of churches, and talk show hosting - it's a culturally evasive tactic to justify a lot of shit. Firstly, that was not true everywhere - no. There were people living into their 90's... three centuries ago. It's a matter of having more of them now, then back then.. yes - And it wouldn't really matter so much ...it really wouldn't. Like I opined in that cynical missive up there ... all 'morality' and 'virtuosity,' these are just human perception constructs.. Sometimes we have to remind ourselves, there are no Natural Laws - like E=MC2, or PV=NRT, or genetic theory..etc..etc - that describe the framework of what we think of as right, wrong, and the value of money. We get caught up in them as having some sort of particular relevancy to the natural order of the cosmos but: Remove humanity, and they do not exist; remove humanity, the former list of physical machinery will always exist. Which should be the bible ? They are infinitely subjective, self-perpetuating illusions that are in part instinctual, in part learned, in a species that has cooperative, socially-oriented dependency built right into their DNA. It's a fascinating philosophical sort of quandary .. because, one can argue completely correctly: that any contrivance of man IS a part of the cosmos too -

It took "me" awhile I know these autocorrects sometimes assume we are dipshit 14-year olds loitering in Mall food courts and insist on running back along sentences to pattern match dipshit speak

I think high altitude smoke assisted this

No one asked .. but I've been wondering if that D5-10 trough might end up more of a Bahama blue pattern when no one was expecting... Particularly because the ridge signal in the west in unusually potent, and I'm wondering if the trough doesn't end up stalling for a bit more W of the mountains .. .setting the state for S conveyor deal - it's not far from that already.

I'm not "arguing" anything - But, that < 40 statement is a falesy ...and so is that relative rare phenomenon that still claims lives today anyway - another false equivalency - I'm not saying life expectancy hasn't benefitted - I was talking about the 'entitlement' and its ugliness. There needs to be some sort of concerted virtuosity involved in the advantages that tech provides ... but no sooner than we evolve this wonder as a species...it's schemed -

And the alternatives and stimuli offered up by technological modernity offer so much more appealing alternatives to feeling accomplished and basing internal spiritual wealth on a pattern of substantive achievement therefrom. wrong: it is an illusion - all of society is based on a vapid participation trophy for that matter. societies of western Industrial derivatives ... man, if it wasn't for the fact that 'morality' and 'virtuality' are also, in themselve, merely human perception-constructs ( that bear no significance to the natural order of reality outside of our own immediate sentience-necessity ...) I'd say all these cultural ilks that derive pleasure and distraction by means of technological orgies are in desperate need of an asteroid impact to force feed them a fragility reminder/humility. The vibe of 'entitlement' that proliferates all interactions at all scope and scales, in the gearing of societies of these convenience-addling ilk ... it's really ugly man. You know, that's high-brow ... 25$ words to describe a petty entitlement that happens once populations get used to electricity and other conveniences- but there really is truth to it..