Typhoon Tip

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  1. It's worth it to ask... because you know, these hint, frets and starts, if not outright modeled depictions, of quasi cutting 500 mb lows going under our latitude from earlier this week/last weekend, not one person - including self ...hey - post one word about that being against the seasonal trend. Seasonal trend has always been part of determinism in this game. Your 'ephermeral' climate bias. We have been sending trough core of the ST L ever since early December. Anyway, maybe we've been ignoring some obvious red flags? just wonderin'
  2. I was actually comparing that 500 mb track to that guidance' ideas from four days ago, when/where it had position SE of ACK near the BM. It occurs to me to ask the question: has there been a 500 mb under LI since the early Dec event? I'm willing to wager the majority have sawed their way up there, up thru the ST L /NY.
  3. Y’all’s prolly too incorrigibly inconsolable in a state of apoplectic angst by now buuut ... The tail end of that Nam solution shows the high in eastern Ontario back builds in the last three frames. Damming noses so whatever comes up from the arcing bclinic zone like that it’s not going to get through here not in that form. Has to go underneath. Granted ... all that’s going to change of course but that’s what the Nam shows on this run
  4. I wonder if this breaks the record for fastest spin up to double digits page number for no reason. Haha Seriously… I’m actually with Will. It was always going to be tonight and tomorrow’s runs it really solidify this one way or the other because were bringing the stuff on board from off the open Pacific and it just it’s a week flow arena and that usually means that there are subtleties or details in there that need to be sampled properly. It’s like we have the opposite problem from over the last month when things were to screaming and fast
  5. Would the last person that leaves this thread please turn out the lights? The custodians have even gone home -
  6. Yeah ...s'pose it's time to divert the thread into that mash-up between nostalgia and personal tastes thing - For me, if winter is not cooperating by February 10, I'm out. I mean, I've gotten sun-burns in February ... It's like August - the antithesis. You could be up in it, thick, and be diametric in three weeks. I almost consider those months really as the transition beginnings going in either direction. The proverbial seasonal backs usually break in those months - heralds the warning shots across the bow. Just knowing that the futility gets to me and stop caring. Oh, I'll admit to hypocrisy if that historic thing happens in the spring - sure. But, the realist in me knows that's so fleeting that it automatically shuts down any anticipation for anything other than terminating winter. And I start praying and hoping that the 2nd New England winter that typically kicks off around March 21st and doesn't end until the middle of June doesn't theft 1.5 months of the early warm season. I mean, you get the sore butt winter, followed by 42 mist until June 10... then early cool snaps with a frost in Orange Ma in August ...? Follow that up with early recurving TC ... we're really talking some loathing Change hobbies.. ha! It's getting harder lately though. Man, we had 80s in February a couple years ago. And one March and two different Aprils also couched wack-job heat. All of these spanning the last 4 years, too, where we then lost out to spring to cool pointlessness. God... don't do that again.
  7. more I look at that deliberate attack I laugh harder.. I mean.. what? 60 mph wind gusts from the S - after quite plausibly having gone through a butt soring beyond the very endurance of man -
  8. ho man... what delicious misery. I hope that thing comes through as mostly cloudy dim sun sprinkles that way a ton-o hell on the face, ..then this happens 3 days later - that'd set up the devotees all sweet and proper, huh
  9. I never could stand the reasoning that it's up to the speaker to make sure the idiot doesn't run with a story - It takes two to tango in that.
  10. See ...this sort of insinuates that expectation was set? That's on the part of the reader unfortunately. The ULL behavior and so forth does mimick those events. But there's no declaration of for a redux there. Truth be told, the same sort of comparisons could be drafted up and said for any partial/quasi-closed system that moves along as such... That's all it is/was. One should be able to mention and have the reader process properly - yeah, I know. It's like you can't bare mention at all.
  11. Ahh yeah..there's probably some deeper members in there...but D 5, we'd like to see that < 1000 .. Again, this could all be moot if this comes on board out west overnight and suddenly .. we dawn tomorrow with more substantively sampled/resulting model panoply. The Euro morphology between the 00z and 12z is telling - we need more time. Too much grousing...too much faux elation...too much everything when patience is warranted. I will say this much ... despite the 2-page morning campaign to sack the GFS lobbied by the collective, the 850 and 700 mb set ups out there at 120 hours are tasty. Isothermal snow sounding with deep >90% RH through 500 mb is plenty to get a good old fashioned pasting.
  12. No ... factually, it's been showing a 1002 type low for many cycles. That's not really very exciting - though by definition, exciting is subjective I guess. To each his own - but let's not over sell 1002 mb low either way.
  13. what ...is it showing yet another cycle with a 1002 mb low S of ISP ... woooh I will say this much, if this Euro run goes on to score with that, that's a big win for the early spring camp. wow... That is a f'n late March faux extended prick tease story line if ever we lived through a spring in NE - just happens to be setting up in late January. It's been a spring look all along. Some of us have been bringing this to light -
  14. Nah .. Seems like most credible contributors in here have it pretty well baked in that this is a piece of crap with potential. Identifying trends that may lend to more vs less impact is part and parcel in deterministic forecasting, too - so that shouldn't be held against anyone imho. That said, it may also reflect more on one's own resenting of the winter thus far - ha - so they snark on others for what it is they're really doing.. But, I get it - some may... Look, no one should really be holding a pistol to the head of any model until this thing gets better sampling. The Euro is showing continuity issues ...that's a red flag.. If it was handling/seeing the initialization properly it probably wouldn't be deviating from a consistency as much as it has. Put it this way...what if drilled a hole in the ocean to the bed rock SE of the Cape - same crap.