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Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
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  1. Was cool and foggy at dawn here ... but sat revealed it was a Nashoba Valley phenomenon, as it took on the neuro fibrous look.. still, it was autumnal in vibe. Now, full summer. Late high .. we're squeezing in on 75/63 so, may not be "July" but summery.
  2. Lol, was just thinking that ... how it seems really quite lovely for suckin' one up, but there's no prom date -
  3. Dude, I cannot even consider my home- unit BP cuff or my heart rate quickens. Actual doctors office? heh... right - I'm like the Youtube dog that has it's front legs extended and locked, leaning backward on his curled haunches, tail covering genitals... being dragged though the Vet's lobby by a taut leash while whimpering.
  4. My beloved 'General Sherman' is an ~ 250 year old sugar maple whose canopy partially over shadows the tri-lot region of my own yard with those neighbors. It's so beloved because it turns this brilliant saffron hue, so intense it must go beyond the physical registry of human visual cortex capacitance. Purely mesmerizing ... ... when it's healthy. The first 6 years I lived here, it became very dependable - it peaked between October 10 and 13, without fail. If the sky were ever that cerulean/azure autumn emerald blue and the sun was behind you, you really needed sun glasses ...lest you squint by the orange refracting light. Of course, clean up 10 days later wasn't fun - with all that suspended deciduous mass deposed to Earth, it stacked nearly foot deep. But something strange took place 4 years ago. That year, it didn't peak - it seemed to succumb to some sort of "blighty" infestation. The leaves turns from green to a vomit brown-yellow ( whatever you call that color in arty standard pallet ), speckle-adorned with these shit-blotch marks, falling as they seem more like to grew ill - so there was no suspension period either. It was like the foliage plagued and died - it was striking. I thought maybe the whole tree actually just did. But ...the following April rolled around, the buds swelled and burst open, and that vague sweet maple fragrance permeated while bees probed away, no harm no foul. But that fall, it did the same thing... shit - I was thinking this is the new thing. Last year, it did something altogether different, though. No shit stains. It turned not saffron, but yellow ( no brown). It was like healthy yellow, but this tree had never turned that color. Head scratcher. Not only that ...but it happened in mid September, and by October 1 ... barren-limbed. I later read that some species indeed went early and felled. The reason was espoused as "too much of a good thing" with growth parameters last summer. Deciduous trees apparently only have so much energy available to both creating wood/cellulose, and maintaining leaf chemistry - once that threshold is reached, the tree will flush regardless of the surrounding weather ( I'm probably butchering this paraphrasing ... ) This year, it seems to be mid way back to the original 6 years. There were spotty yellow and orange leaf, but up until two days ago, it was some 90% still green. Not sure,..the last couple of mornings have made the mid 40s here, despite the 76 F afternoons... maybe that chilliness "triggered" but it's starting to look like sections want to go. And they are orangy hinted, not yellow. I'm guessin' we peak here in 7 or 10 days, perhaps early, but back to saffron. We hope ...
  5. Heh, ...wait 'till the solar dimming really kicks in now that the Equinox is aft. That's when the October "set backs" get real historically. You have an over-valued market by probably some 20% easily.... in a CC crisis begging for a connection to Fossil Fuel cracking the foundation, and a Pandemia that's likely only to get worse while we continue this Darwinian clean up of non-vaccinator ideology... This year strikes me as a still shining star whose core has already imploded - we're just unaware, in borrowed time, for it takes up to 10 hours for the shock of repulse super nova wave to succeed the surface and burst out it's death vomit. This autumn might just be an "economic 10 hours". ...Maybe. We only needed one bad thing to cross hairs with societal "S.A.D." back in 2008, nefarious credit swaps. It seems almost an easy prediction when the Globe is saddled with reasons this time.
  6. I probably should get mine checked. Have a routine physical here at the end of October. Typically blood panel for renal, liver and lipid spectrum after 14 hour fast. annoying - But, last time it was 60 HDL and 117 LDL ... Try-g' were under a hundred. The report came back as overall "good" but that 117 was oooh so close. They want that 96 or <. The physician/lab tech stated on the report that it is/was not urgent and most likely a 'fluke' reading when taking into consideration the other numbers. Total was 180 and the ratio was 3.2. Cholesterol has never been my problem really. I'm a thin dude. I don't eat processed shit. Rarely eat refined sugar. Never drink. Don't smoke. Work out intensely every day ... unless a friend or fam plan gets in the way. Those are a day off. Otherwise, 10K runs, 25 m bike rides... 1 hr eliptical and free weights, rotation. ... My resting HR is like 46 beats. Here's the thing - hypertension. My doctor is flummoxed. He thinks I have tendency anyway, but on top ...this 'white coat syndrome.' I must admit, every time I look at a BP cuff my heart rate increases. I have some weird adrenaline shit going on with medical agenda. Not a fan. Yes, you can have congenital hypertension, but even in this group - my lifestyle typically does push the numbers lower. When I stand up, I get light headed/vertigo, unless I'm in the f'ers office. I've done some research; I suspect I have caffeine sensitivity issues. Turns out... 12% of the background population has this condition and most don't know it - according to NCBI/science entry. Of those, half less actually have the condition 'extreme.' Most people will observe a modest BP spike when consuming coffee or other heavier caffeinated loads. According to literature, on the order of 7 to 10 systolic, over 2-6 diastolic. For sensitive people, these rises can be triple that, and can last for up to 6 or even 9 hours! Few people really know this... The last time I prepped for physical, I was not told to fast, yet the panel was still done. That kind of pissed me off. The doc said, we'll take that into consideration. I had like 4 cups of fully load caffeine coffee, with half and half. Another lesser known aspect about caffeine - enzymes in your blood break down caffeine into LDL's ( ... proooobably the reason I pulled a 117 - gee) that may transiently show up in tests. Duh - idiots. The point of saying all this, make sure that you do not drink black coffee despite what the stupid fasting instruction says. If you are like me, and consummately put up tall BP numbers ... ( my father had HT and so did his father so I probably have that gene regardless) you might save yourself a prescribed intimate relationship with big pharma. Just sayn' and it may also contribute loftier LDLs.
  7. This is awesome ... we get one extra day of summer this year -
  8. now... just need it to go ahead and unzip ..bifurcate and landslide, sending a seismic wave that rears some 900' up the EC's bays and estuaries...
  9. Yeah,... we create a cultural stigma about not being Joe-independent maverick, chisel jawed muscle clad revered this, or female sex gods with super power that, all by the age of 20 in Americana vision, then create an economic social structure that for 97 % ( or whatever vast majority it is) of the rearing population, that is provisionally impossible without crime. Lol -
  10. What I think is interesting is that the classic model of the +NAO leading/ .. conducting MDR, is failing to relay TCs west before succumbing either to shear or recurve. That former mode of the circulation tends to favor both. But we're losing Peter ( most likely ...) to shear, and rose appears destined to either join the westerlies or wonder aimlessly over the eastern limb of the Sargasso Sea.. 98L comes through the birthing canal less than 10 deg from the Equator, and still we hedge whether it makes the key slot lat/lon. Noted, this morning's guidance pops back west but, doing so when the NAO is negative.. These are more at anti corollary behaviors. There could the a 'spatial lag' so to speak. The NAO isn't schedule to flip signs until about 4 days from now. It'll be in free fall at that time if the CPC's latest guidance is correct. I wonder if the deeper MDR isn't "sensing" the exertion of the NAO phase change by D4. Maybe in this sense, that still delivers 98L, west. Either way, both Peter and Rose were red headed neglected by the +NAO either way. Lol
  11. Preaching to the choir perhaps ... but, I have impassioned that message regarding the health and safety aspect of "big heat," as well as my frustration in why it is not recognized in the pantheon of weather threats: Floods, Tornadoes, Blizzards, Hurricanes, and Lightning, for years. There should be, temperature extremes, added to that list. ...and it is empirical too! Heat kills more annually, direct or indirect, than all these combined. Why? It's because what we've floated in conjecture. The average human being responds to what they see, hear ...smell, feel etc. The 'threat' is not perceived as significant unless it "awes" one of these corporeal "proofs". The specter of heat is invisible - ...It can certainly be felt. But the 92 F cumulative morass takes time. And that time seems to lower it's value too much. But, you know, it's shamefully limiting. Because we have the ability to engineer our robots to another planet yet have to rely upon such primitive modal response mechanisms. LOL.. kind of funny almost ...
  12. I'm assuming that bold statement is in deference to me? Just from the last page or so of posts ... I think you mean me. If so, no - I do not preferentially single out winter. What I have written at length about regards the autumn and springs more so than the winter, actually. I subsequently advanced my own hypothesis: The culprit might be the HC stuff. Just to be clear... There's a lot of complexity there - it's hard to paraphrase it all. Autumn: Seasonal lapsing and the plausible cause being connected to the warming at lower latitudes. It's a bit counter intuitive, but a warmer lower latitude might bring earlier freeze snaps to the Lakes to New England. Fantastic short term recoveries, too. When a cold incursion relaxes, the warmth is still biding time ... still available to the return flow sequencing. I look back at the last 20 .. particularly 10 years, and indeed we've been situating snow events at unusual times relative to the previous climate inference, then encountering warm departures of almost equal magnitude. The gist of the way it works is, the the hemisphere is getting gradient rich earlier in the autumn, because cooling in the Ferrel regions is "out-pacing" the lagged HC in the south(s). That increased gradient, speeds up the flow ... perhaps small, but very crucially. That faster flow, by wave mechanical-physics, will tend to organize into Rossby waves ( conservation of inertia organizes waves when occurring in rotating medium ) - this lowers the entropy of summer, earlier. ....That all means we see more coherent +PNAP( -PNAP) with more mulit- non-hydrostatic height contours defining, and along with, we start seeing CAA earlier into mid latitudes. Spring: ...again, just hypothesis, but this happens similarly. As the winter lower heights back off, and the mean polar jet begins to move N ...it is holding onto velocities longer, such that we may be witnessing a tendency to regress [temporarily] to +PNAP structures. Most of my suppositions about winters were attempts to offer insights, only. Perhaps the reason ENSO influences have demonstrated less physically observable presence in the general circulation modes at hemispheric scales, with increasing distraction, spanning the last 20 years. Maybe the HC is supplanting the ENSO signal. "It seems like something you just throw out there when you feel like it." ...I admit I tend to be cavalier at times, with prose that is droll - an affectation that may be missed. I can see how this may be miss-construed. I also think that the implications of even meeting the above conjecture 'half way' as being certainly possible, means that the the 'institutionally' accepted, seasonal ( lead) forecast methods, may not be as reliable, and there is a some preservation tactics in play to invalidate and protect those. People don't like change. They will hesitate. Most new ideas are seen as maverick and when they buck the zeitgeist, you get apprehension...I get it. Normal. - But rest assured, the HC, albeit entirely real, my own point of view in how it effects matters: I am not pinning that on any source - although...I may borrow from them to corroborate my thinking, I always site my sources. I would also caution that the lateral size of the HC, in terms of where its northern amorphous boundary becomes the westerlies, may also be seasonally compressed at times, a circumstance that is would be more likely observable in winter. It doesn't mean it isn't there, lurking and influencing. The times of excessive wind gradient and wind velocity is a mechanical conversion/conservation. That paper excerpt doesn't address that valid question. It's merely observational - I'll reread it but it didn't leap out at me.
  13. Boy, now there's a rock act that really carved out an multi-generational impact as a seminal game changer .. Sometimes when I feel like I do on this, well, life, I like to go and find someone else's embarrassment. Lol. Like, some flash in the pan, "super relevancy" ...really more of a firecracker in a mine-field of historic a-bombs, and go relish in the tedium of their delusion of grandeur. I haven't verified them just yet.. but usually when you see 'years active' with a big gap like this, 1995–2001 [ ] 2017–present, ...that means their money and fame ran out. So their selling the same old pap, hoping nostalgic cheese will rein back their numbers - if they can't rely upon younger new generational expose, one's the as usual, believe whatever is new to them, must be new always. We'll see -
  14. I had a 47 here over the last month twice... Once in late August and then a couple weeks ago. This morning was 47-49 around town. We are situated in the 'Nashoba Valley' here in Ayer. In fact, town hall on GPS is 223' elevation. My commute to the office in the autumn and winter, typically will demonstrate that 'cold valley' phenomenon, with as much as a 10 F difference between my driveway and the climb-out nearing the Rt 2/ I-91 interchange. I haven't driven the route now in 18 months due to this pandemic wfh standardization, but .. I can definitely imagine that this morning would have been one of those where it was colder down here than up on those interior ridge lines. How much, who knows. The extended guidance ( day 7 - 10 ) really grinding as hard as they can. By day's 9 and 10, all three, Euro, GGEM and GFS have worked hard in the days leading to erode in a +PNAP synoptic layout. To go with, they have the coolest 850 mb regime since last spring, sagging from the eastern Lakes thru New England. Usually when they work that hard in that time range, something else ends up happening. I'm not sure any of that would verify, too well ... The models, are routinely too amplified with troughs and ridges in the time range. All doing so for their own reason. But, as is, the GGEM would frost more convincingly and pervasively. The Euro and GFS could, but they also orient the lower tropospheric synopsis differently, with more SW flow .... If their present versions of the trough verify just that less obtrusive, we actually end up in one of those deep southerly conveyor and humid. Perfect set up for a drawing a TC up ... but unfortunately for those interested in that sort of thing, ..it almost seems the seasonal trend is to recurve.
  15. Makes sense in that they are closest evolution of branched ancestors, That behavioral tendencies may be recognizable… Still there’s a huge scale in degree of complexity and sophistication difference there. As far as the sardonic take on that other group of people … heh, I wonder if they subjected chimpanzees two a completely non-challenged life of utter provisional subsistence what kind of behavioral differences would they exhibit that differentiates them from their own immediate progenitor parents
  16. My ratio was 3.2 on my last panel. In theory … 4.1 is the margin /goal for ‘good’ …lower being better. Course it’s not one-size-fits-all. One’s genetics/other risk factors obviously matter. Those may require them to have a lower ratio, or higher ratio is acceptable depending.
  17. Ho man ..that looks good. You could fish a couple them bangers out and lay 'em in a subroll with some sauteed peppers and cheese for during the game, and still have 'nough left for pasta later. ...how does one get past the physiological apocalyptic LDL cholesterol tsunamis, though LOL Oh wait. You're Italian, right ? That means you probably have a built in genetic tolerance
  18. It 'seemed' to? Mind you, it's not etched in factual stone or anything. It's just that back whence, we used to muse over the "southeast ridge" - it's really the origin-era for how that got into the common vernacular in describing notable features. I.e., "NAO block," "EPO cold loading," etc. It was bad - even when patterns from Siberia/Alaska/ ..western Canada and the U.S. Rockies were almost ideal - there was permanent 'bump' in the Tennessee Valley/ lower M/A and 580 heights over Atlanta Georgia. The impetus here being that it is perhaps too difficult to separate SE ridging from HC do to lapped proximity. It's around that time that I coined the expression, "the Miami rule." Basically, non-hydrostatic heights need to be below 582 dm, and/or the balanced geostrophic wind velocities between that ~ demarcation, and say Atlanta Georgia, needs to be lower the 40 kts, prior to any S/W coming down from the western Prairies of Canada and/or ejected through the West. If those assessment parameters are breached, we are gradually increasing negative interference - in that sense, shear increases. I have seen "at a glance" perfect pattern looks, with a nice tall ridge over 110 or so W, and a deep trough nadir roughly situated Cleveland, but the wind over Atlanta was 100 kts before any S/W arrived. What happens? The already fast wind field "absorbs" the wind max of the S/W as it arrives. It sort of just gets lost in the flow ... The system narrows impact, speeds up..and cyclones get pearled into multiple member vortices...and/or the system devolves into open wave WAA. It's just too much gradient ... The southeast ridge as recognizable interference aspect is likely always known, but that 2-3 years there during and post the '98 super nino, really elucidated. A lot of the speed saturated hemispheres we've had in the last 20 years have really been compression. Whether that is SE ridge, or just something related to HC resistance ...it may also be difficult to parse out which is which. I didn't personally notice the super Nino from 5 years ago adding - or like "resetting" the base-line, quite in the same way ..no. However, I have read papers where it was stated that the global impact/events, more typically known/thought to be caused by El Nino, where comparatively manageable relative to the ginormous ENSO. More over, others have noted that the patterns in winter have not been very well correlating in general, during either phase of ENSO. It may simple be that these ENSO regimes .. changes therein, or not modulating quite like they used to. Noise? Perhaps, perhaps not.
  19. Yeah... I get that much. But I was hung up on the "last year" - ha! They meant earlier 'this' year... as in Jan/Feb of 2021. funny -
  20. I'm not sure I follow? missed what -
  21. I would not think it a very long guess that for most winter enthusiasts ...last year sucked ballz. It ranked very low on redemption scoring, outside of a narrow band through Central NE ..which will IMBY-lens arguments no doubt. Having said that ... I guess for pure objective reasoning, the bold means there was "at least" a chance? - no bueno. The humanity of the enthusiast would rather roll up that reasoning and beat the high-roader into a coma. Missing events by 500 mi is almost preferred over being C.H.ed ... It means one's region never was in the game. But a steady of diet near-misses is excruciating. No but 2020-2021 was a winter marred by velocity/shearing and negative interference tendencies the majority of time. That atones in most cases why those misses took place. If the scaffold of the pattern is circumstantially doing that, than the pattern sucks, and the reality did to. So I guess in this sense ... I would suggest using this objective reason to prove that subjectively, last winter sucked ballz, as being the fairest distinction. Ha ha yeah yeah, maybe it was just "bad luck" ...but I think the probability of a better vs worse result, relative to preference notwithstanding, is parlayed off of canvased winter pattern. Personally, I would rather not stack the deck with bad luck.
  22. The recent Hadley studies have nothing to do with what was going on back in 1920s, which that decade vastly predates the observation and posited effects of the Hadley cell expansion since 1990; and in particularly the last two decades. Apples and oranges – in fact completely disparate topical causalities. You didn’t say anything in your response that really refutes the notion that HC expansion could be affecting the ENSO ability to modulate the circulation… I definitely agree with the MJO aspects though. This is no kind of a credit grab in saying so please do not try to go down any petty roads… But I’ve been saying the same thing about the MJO also getting muted because of the Hadley expansion for about 10 years. Fact the matter is… These things are almost always concurrently determined by multiple sources and it’s always a race to be the first one to say x-y/z whatever My personal observation with the HC is that it took a leap in the 1998 actually during that super Nino, and never really fell back to its original state before that particular El Niño took place - it has if anything grown somewhere between 3 and 5° of latitude since.
  23. Finally ...we see a W/SW heat release signal... There's some kind of enabling god that is protecting SNE American WX Forum winter zealotry from experiencing those lobes on the Solstice - It's really rather remarkable how dependable that is -
  24. It's all about momentum ... op ed as we will, opine and whine... but in the end, you have an industrialized world with 7+billion on board - I made this metaphor several weeks ago in a diatribe - it's hard to turn a fully loaded sea-tanker around inside 1.5 mi, when we only have .75 miles before the edge of the world. That's basically it ... that symbolism means, there is too much ballast going in the direction of FF for energy. This denial and those asshat "conditional sociopaths" all of it is just part of that momentum. Oh, it'll abate eventually ... in lieu of the new world order. Whether that is by force or choice remains to be seen, but in either case, ...it'll take time.
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