Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. The cooling in the 70s also correlated with a resonate superposition in solar minimums - not as extreme as now ... but in the the 11 and 22 year cycles ... just fwiw
  2. There's a personal preference for every degree on the temperature scale, and every watt per square meter along the sun on the dial. I have noticed a 'grousing bias' tendency during days of pall overcast. Doesn't even matter as much if it is dry - just cloudy. Hearkens to a touch of s.a.d. maybe? For me it is temperatures ... particularly, in the spring. Bad temperature days can get me a tad disillusioned ... and if there happens to be an over-arcing theme of Pandemic and climate catastrophe, gun violence, WOKE oppressive fascism and lack of getting laid, that makes the former magnified. It would be nice to put down the internet, television, ...iphones and the like, and wonder through parks and farmer's markets, arts shows and picnic venues, under a nape bake light wind conveying lilac memories instead of all that bleakness, huh - Still, at least it is not wet. At least the next time it is schedule to get wet, is overnight tomorrow night, leaving Sunday's sun and razor lower level warmth in light wind, unscathed. I don't think we're escaping the packing pellet air mass during the first half of the week - it may not do that under any virga busted cu fall, but the air mass would support it. And thus completing the 7th f'ing year in a row of stolen May calendar space in row, with this weird shit. I just hope that afterwards... round day 5, the Euro camp is right about the defined moderation of the 850 mb layout... In fact, from that point until D10 ..those 5 days show an abeyance of cold intrusions into the GL/OV/NE of 0C air at that baser metrical sigma level. With west wind tendencies much of the time, and no real apparent theta-e transport, that may finally get us into a 70+ actual repetition of subsequent afternoons for the first time. Not these drive-by warm pop shots followed by garden stunter CAA deals. This bs is causing our montly means to be above normal, while concealing how cold it is synoptically. Global warming seems almost as much about hiding itself insidiously - I wonder if the models forecast that: 'fantastically above normal while freezing ballz off'
  3. Day 6 thru 10 of this 12z Euro please ... subtle fly in the ointment mid way through ...some cloud debris in the M/A to CT perhaps... but otherwise, 68 Thursday to 76 the following Sunday with weak gradient vectored off-shore, and low RH deep layer from the Lakes to the Maritimes ... Haven't seen a polish on that range of any guidance really since the phantom heat wave runs of early April.. heh. anyway, ...even tho the tele's are lowering in correlation, the PNA is falling and the NAO is neutralized in that area in the GEFs, and seeing this operational Euro fit with that spread is like ding dong the witch is dead appeal - Hopefully it really is... Oh, and the MJO is finally completely collapsed(ing)
  4. I think we're talking about those extreme outlier events tho - ...those don't settle back and disappear so readily into the longer term mean smear, either way, and will still shine rather brightly above others in columnar of data. I mean sloppy example, +1, -1, +2, -3, -1, +4, +2, -1, +38, 0, +1, -7, -8, -2, +1, +27,.... etc.... The frequency of ostentatious giddy outliers is up. I think he wants to see those Matterhorn events in supposition to whether they are skewing due to frequencies. Single can be single day or maybe a week... That 80+ Feb day back in 2017? ...was embedded in a week of 60s to near 70 - don't quote. So that would be a standout series, true.
  5. Bingo - and absolutely ... That's really been the ball game - when it "could be warm" ... verification goes way above - and we're not talking just busting warm side. Like seriously and creepy skewed. C'mon people... I've seen it nudge 80 in f'um February - get a grip and a fear... Lol... bunning it a little there for fun, but a 30+ high temp - ...heh. It seems immoral how little we have 'awed' in that just because of this predilection for snow and cold preoccupation of user compulsion in here. Ha ha, it's like asking the asylum to render an objective concern - hahahaha... I'm kidding ... but, it's like what my grandfather used to say about the Democrats - he was mid last century pedigree of Republican: " you give the bastards an inch and they'll take a mile" ...LOL The atmosphere has been doing that - the models give an inch of warm bias and we're buried under skyscraper temperatures. If a model outlook offers any sort of higher confidence warm patina to an outlooked synoptic complexion, you're all but guaranteed a 20 + departure. Boom. Bank it, smoke it do what you gotta do, but you're wearing shorts and t-shirts in February. In very short concise terms: Point departures of exceedingly large values are markedly increased in frequency since 2000. Monthly means may be getting weighted upward. I mean ... this is all predicated on the assumption of fact - but... I can assure you with 100% confidence.. .in the first 30 years of my life, I never ever saw 70 in Jan or Feb... Now, exposure to that sort of antic has me almost sort of use to it. Interesting...
  6. Maybe ...yeah, mixing this, ...weird anomalies that... Just rolling snake eyes at crappes There's probably some feeding of 'bad luck' The thing is, it's not really showing too well at the last 45 days of temperatures. I mean April finished above normal despite having an [ overzealously forecast] snow event in its midst. And May was modestly positive through D4 - though I haven't seen 5 or 6 in the till/means just yet. Certainly doesn't "seem" like it's been warmer than normal in that way . I'm wondering why the huge disparity between expectation and truth ...or, if we have just been dealt a kind of sinister bad luck of only being cold and shitty like ... only when we can feel it. Lol
  7. Sounding lapse rates are underrated, too - I've see 48 dps with nickle hail and multi-pulsed CG bombs shattering pine trunks because it was like -40 C at 500 mb or something. Okay ...so 'zaggeratin' a little but you get my point. Also, llv DPs don't mean shit as much as cloud/condensation source DP ... deep layer "wet" layers mix down as the morning sounding starts to diurnally tumble/mix. Plus, entrained wetter layers where is elevated conditional/marginal instability ..these factors can drive a sun 38 F decoupled DP ...to a 50 F core at 2:30 pm
  8. I just think it is amazing that in a hockey-sticking warm CC era and under solar max sun ...this air mass wins. The Euro just can't modify the air and still undeterred, plumes sub 850 mb air down as far as Dayton OH... Basically, zero demonstration for physically atoning for seasonal change/climate - I don't know how much of that is error ... I mentioned this a little bit ago ... - this is the 5th or 6th of these gem-like days that parlayed out of the look these models have been dooming us with since about April 10. So, it does seem there is a bit of an emergent reveal that the models are overly pessimistic and perhaps failing on the cool/misery/ rhea side. hmm
  9. Yeah, I was Moderna ... first dose ten days ago. No reaction that I was aware. Still, I have family that ranged from 2 day stints on couch and loathing ... to no reaction from either dose. But not sure if they took Moderna or Pfifer or whatever... I guess the safe route is that if one has the latitude to decide, clear your calendar for a day or two afterwards in the off chance of some dull headed waken state of fugue. Chalk it up as a one-off systemically mandated time off.
  10. Mordancy or Fister ? I hear it matters... actually I've heard a bunch of what ultimately may be shit, ranging from: "if you get a reaction from the first shot of either, that means you had Covid once, whether you self resolved or not" "if you get a reaction from the first shot of Moderna, that means you had Covid once, whether you self resolved or not - not true for Pfifer" "If you don't get a reaction from the first dose, you're doomed to couch for 3 days of misery on the 2nd no matter what, regardless of either" "If you get a reaction to the first shot, you are less likely to get a reaction to the 2nd at all - but if you do, it'll be like the first reaction" "If you get no reaction to the first shot, you get 10 times worse reaction from the 2nd and it's really bad fear monger yadda yadda CNN " "Moderna has nano-bots that's why it is reactive more so than Pfifer" "Pfifer isn't really a vaccine - it's a nano-chip delivery system, which is why you don't actually get an immo-responose" "Anything that sounds at all plausible... no matter how impossible, must have actually happened" - the modern variant of Occam's razor
  11. Lol, at this hour ? ... shrooms - c'mon, get with it. Nah truth be told I haven't had beer in 6 years. In fact, nada on everything. Wait - I had ...maybe a half ounce sip of champagne at a 50th b-party about two years ago...otherwise, zip consumption. No ... I'm not mandated by AA, or medical etc. I just felt back then like my life was devoid of particularly meaningful pursuits ...and failing to realize those while nightly love-making with wine and liquor ... mmm - not a relationship one should defer to unless they really do want to be mandated by AA or medical. I mean I was starting to feel it, anyway. I sort of realized that I might be at a fork in the proverbial choice-roads of life there at the time. I was either going to commit to end of life by 60 ...or, maybe fight to the bitter end - because it doesn't matter whether one succeeds or wins; it only matters that they were the best person they could have been ... that sort of schmaltz... it does sort of mean more to people as they get older. I dunno the short is I don't drink. I don't miss it. It's been so long now, in fact, that even a night of junk food gives me sensations like I musta drank and smoked a cigar the night before. I've gotten hang-over-like symptoms off chili dogs and a coke. You don't realize how adaptive your body is to toxins until you ween off of them for a substantially long amount of purification - and it may take years to really recoup that last 20% ? Once there, you can see what you've left behind and your body tells you. I mean... you stop drinking for 30 days ... you feel better. Your belly may shrink a tad. BP comes down a little. Cholesterol improves... But, that's all at the 60th or 70th percentile recovery of core. To get that 95% innocence back ...you kind of need 5 years of organic sleep and diet with zero exposure to anything a Capuchin Monkey wouldn't normally engages with. Basically ... a life-style change so pure and deep and comprehensive that you create a gestalt that favors a new universe of reality.. Very few people get there - I'm still trying ... and crying.
  12. I'm sure at some point today radar will expose a west moving sinuous s- breeze boundary showing up to end the party like cold cops that always felt sort of awkward and left out in high school and thus sought careers that automatically appointed them alpha status ... Seeing as they couldn't get to that social status by their own accord/peer recognition during those formulative years of their budding narcissism ... ...but for now, we rage and rave and soak in the splendor of why I never became an on-camera Meteorologist. Trying to imagine how dumb and embarrassing that would have looked up on telestrator. Day 1 with a partly to mostly cloudy, 52, in a raw east wind over eastern New England coastal zones ... would shine on really asinine. That's pretty squarely and honestly what I thought we'd be looking at ... I think the reason for my failure is that a hate and despise god ( anyway ..) but definitely at this time of year and that attitude isn't providing the best lens - lol... just maybe. I was way the fu off on today's sky. Shit... I looked at the models ...they had 70% RH at 700, 500 .. 300 etc sigma levels. That is typically indicating at least banded/shredded alto stratus and fractal spooge.. Not such deeply azure blue, so mysteriously deep and clear, as to haunt the interstellar medium lurks on the other side of its prism purity. 60 already right down into Boston. No wind... But the gradient being so week ...it probably does get interrupted by a cold whack back boundary propagating to slosh up against Worcesters els. This is the 5th or 6th day this has happened this spring ... recently over the last three weeks, where the day ended up gem-like despite my own interpretation of guidance.
  13. Word just happened to me a couple weeks ago. Every time I touched the brakes it stopped ... but within a moment or two it started singin again. Standard brake pad maintenance did the trick. the only difference is ... I don’t drive a truck. But the mechanics of braking -
  14. Perhaps I should have said "BIG" money - Lol. Nah don't be so reactionary - much of that post was droll intended ... If can't snarkly grin along with it, oh well. 'Sides, I more than amply qualified those remarks, implicitly ...later on in that missive. Helping out your offspring is fine - giving them an unfair advantage is not, just imho -
  15. Full circle ... it's indirect to the aspects I was musing earlier yet the toe-nail curling egregious scene at the site of granny's open casket ... ( sardonically funny be they way ) I guess there's nothing right or wrong about it. Some people value sunsets with soul mates ... others value 20K and Jewelry
  16. Generalizing ... yes... Too focused ? no - I'm being overly snarky and cynical for drollness lol ... I have known trust fund kids that ended up weird as middle age people though - that part I'm quite serious about. For what it is worth, I did say "..Seems romantic on paper to say that my kids should never have to face the shit that I did, and that's true to a point - but in access... the erosion of virtue kicks in. " more concisely, helping a kid is okay - giving unfair advantage gets dicey in a hurry. Fwiw, I agree about the dept stuff - I also have a kind of a [ probably unrealistic .. I know ] fantasy that education should be free right the f straight up and through and including PHD accreditation. You know .. have "merit" milestones/ check-points along the way to validate still going ... I mean we don't want people hiding in academia while and never actually getting their goal.
  17. Yeah ha right. It's like the only thing 'leave it to your children' achieves is not having to face the question now - it won't circumstantially be different for them ... ( even if they think it does ). It's kind of like that delicious up-chuck mantra of, "by the time winters are gone because of CC we'll be dead anway, so it doesn't matter" I guess what we are 'douching' around are questions of ethics and virtues ? Money should never be bequeathed if you ask me ... That's a form and function of a "Capital Darwinism" model - the strongest wallet gets to survive? One needn't think too hard to see all kinds of problems with that, from an evolutionary biological problem and dimming gene pools, to just an outright issue of f'n fairness. But... it's here to stay. Besides, ...I have known trust fund kids. They now carry on with oddities and idiosyncratic personality by middle age. They tediously hide a painfully obvious self-centered bias that is almost more welcoming if they just admit reality is all about them - ugh. My theory is that most people come out of adolescence a little weird. Yeah, I know, I know - up for a Nobel prize in socio-dynamics for advancing that 'novel' statement. Point is, they still need polishing in order to become "admirable adults" - adults in super sense of it ... you get what I mean. Trust funds ... or even just mollycoddling in a lot of ways, blocks that polishing, or in amounts ... detrimentally interferes. Even in partial.. the adult thinks their success is or should be universal, so there's something wrong with anyone not at least in their station.. it's a whole other babble. I mean the normal gestation of life, we all have to face and develop self-reliance and resilience to endure times of sorrow and intrigue ( to put it nicely..). We have to.. to get through it, and in doing so, teaches us to recognize and ultimately value others for having suffered indignity and "owning it", not having any choice, or we don't eat and pay bills. We get 'healthy humility' back from that journey. Trust funders turtle inside veritable affluence bubbles whenever aspects get 'normally' weird. They don't have to 'cooperate' and compromise, thus ..don't have to smell as much of their own life B.O. ... Seems romantic on paper to say that my kids should never have to face the shit that I did, and that's true to a point - but in access... the erosion of virtue kicks in. I'm just generalizing here but more of these adults, I have known, have more value and boundary issues with/about others.
  18. Lol, ... yeah my bad. Too much baggage; didn't read - call it 'tmb;dr' The gist is 'what's the use'? Just offering some personal shit as to why I figure for it having no meaning and in fact .. no use. You know, no one is taking this money with them - you're pathetic spending any life-energy at all amassing meaninglessness. Fascinating really - hahaha.. . some truth to that, though
  19. The nape-bake rating is very high ... the only thing to holding it shy of 10 is the annoying like breeze. If the ambient T can bath a 64 ...that would offset the breeze and become less annoying. But at 58, on the edge. The sun is very hot and intense now though. We are passing through the front boundary of the 'solar maximum' - ...I've commented/waxed about the solar minimum in the winter. This is this the other end: May 8th to Aug 8th contrasting Nov 8th to Feb 8th ... with the in between the transitions. It matters... Going forward, a cold morning heading into a slackening wind, open sky day will nape-bake a fake consolation. Like Scott was saying, sunny days over the next shit weeks will likely do this ... and at least give the prisoners conjugal visits - LOL. Lower elevations down here will do better, too ...when the d-slope etc...
  20. I have an opportunity to sell, get out of this mortgage. Even clear enough profit to reduce my lingering bloated school loans, if not to zero squarely in 'who cares' range. I just don't have anywhere to go and no reason to go there... I bought this small house for metaphoric nickels 10 years back ( relative to what houses typically cost in this economic neck of the woods/Massachusetts west of Boston). Here in the future, the market has up and appreciated like 150% ... I mean, 300 buck homes are now 450-ish here - and new ones built in the last 2 years? -wow I get cold calls and text from - presumably home flippers...- that want to do precisely that: purchase the place outright, no questions asked, for cash. The plot of land is actually modestly outsized for the size of the house. It probably is an attract lot to raise this beyotch and refoot and build anew, then... duplex the f'er and charge 1800/mo to keep a young starter family's echelon suppressed by taking too much of their wealth to save while they survive. Lol... Gotta love the gaping maw of rental economics - dumb. Because I paid light for this place... fairly confident I could double what I paid into the place, and get a chunk of financial soul back. But again...not sure any of it matters... I'm having all kinds of existential shit going on at mid age... questioning the philosophy of existence type crap. Like, so what? - we all do. But I'm not depressed in that tripe sense. It's the math of it all: in 40 years we're all dead and none of this matters ... Finality is absolute, and the absence of absence is the ultimate equalizer. Humanity, Earth, ...the sun and stars seem infinite, but are too finite... and the individuals that make up the other end of that list? We do not even register on the same scale as the other. But we flint as fire-flies, extinguished by the inevitability of the night... Be that as it may, gee, for some reason... sitting upon a precipice gazing out at an auburn sunset sky, with one's soul mate at one's side just seems utterly infinite in true wealth to me ...
  21. Goes against everything ... 100% anti correlated yet happens. lol Kidding a little of course but that’s pretty weirdly going after a complete 0 redeeming value .. I bet it’s not that bad. It’s just like looking at a bomb on the day eight or nine Euro in the winter when the solution is perfect ...you know it can’t hold a perfect solution. And well the same logic should apply ... can’t hold a perfectly bad solution either
  22. It challenges the endurance ... 8 days of that [apparently] impervious to thermal physics air
  23. Nothing screams La Niña spring like this
  24. Drought is over billed so the U.S. DM can keep their jobs. They’re biased