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Typhoon Tip

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. Someone mentioned a while back about the NAM continuity issues ... haha. Like we expected otherwise but, it literally went from historic, to 0, in one run cycle. No exaggeration. 30" 0" ...yeah, I'd call that a problem with continuity
  2. I was just noticing - my take ... - on this 18z NAM solution ( didn't have a chance to see it prior - ), the reason for this bump east is literally because it is getting bumped east. This isn't because of failed s/stream absorption, but look near Lake Winnip.west of Superior area of S Canada at after 72 hours in this run, and compare it to the same time intervals off the 12z. That is a huge difference in that kicker momentum. It's really obtruding a new n/stream S/W momentum into this. Any more so and the model would have 86'ed our storm altogether. Not sure that new N stream bully is real - have to trace back and see if we can identify where that is coming from. The prior run did have a wave there but it was too week to neg interfere the way this run is just did.
  3. Makes sense .. because by those points along the trajectory of all, the amount of S/stream infusion is already registered, so that only leaves that. But also ... we've seen this many times in the past for waves diving SE through eastern Manitoba like that. Are there are any shadowing issues above there in Canada. How does that work up there - we don't have schmucks stationed in Met huts launching balloons. How is that physically sampled?
  4. Ha ha.. 'magine that? if after all this, we end up with a middling NJ Model low... Ah hell, call the thread a D+ ... "D" for dust off and live for next week's pack assassin pattern. Can't get snow here any more without sore-butt inches LOL now that's climate change
  5. I'm tellin' y'all - it's because of what Will already mentioned re the next 60 hours. Soon as he said the 'southern s/w was being left behind,' I didn't need bother looking at the run - yup, nailed it! When the Euro shed southern stream absorption into the trough, it lost leading S/W ridge roll-out ahead. Almost all the sensitivity in this is really isolate-able to that factor, and which is rooted back to that stream interaction. It's subtle, but HUGELY problematic for solutions farther W. That loss causes the convection sequencing to run out ... It'll let cut loose premature, before the trough arrives, and then race out as it starts pulling this apart. It's been really remarkably identifiable over the last 4 days of model monitoring - when the S stream fails to fuse in we see these types of E solutions, and vice versa.
  6. Well... this will be interesting as the Euro rolls out. Some quick orbital perspectives: -- the Euro has not been as stable as we may think. It's been decent with position. It's not consistent with intensity - this latter aspect is trending shallower. In fact, we're 15 mb less deep now compared to 24 or so hours ago. That gradual decline means the governing aspect/wave mechanics are weakening over time, eventually - this model could break E and join the less proficiently phased GFS, if it gets to teetering with a weaker threshold. -- considering this is D3 at the start, to D4 ( or so) finishing; the average error at the front side of that range ( I think) is 150 to 200 mi. At the end of that range it would open up even more. It would help people's confidence for higher impact if the GFS model, and whichever ... would stop pressing against the eastern side of that range. -- there are arguments in support of either erstwhile solution envelopes. Pending this 12z run, if the Euro more than less holds ... it would be about as cut and dry a model fight as we've seen, and doing so D3/4 is interesting - that's a neat case, particularly for this era of technology. It's not like this is D5+ anymore. -- they could suddenly coalesce on an eastern solution, then, en masse, come back when the wave mechanics start carving S along the eastern flanks of the western ridge later Thursday. Sometimes just doing that, and the intensity adds back.. Anecdotal memory -
  7. Sure is! It's basically impeccable in that regard, +1 I mean we've seen damn close to impeccable placements in the past. They're like.. 92, 95th %tile and so forth. But this? It's 99 or for lack of better phrasing, it's over the threshold where it really matters. We could probably dink that in situ, and still come up way over climo for coastal snows. If that were not enough the "+1" addition is that in those other cases, they were not 966 mb lows! wtf ...That absolutely astounding. I was just looking at that relays of the 500 mb with the 300 mb, and if anything, the QPF may be too skimpy out near Orange Ma to Brian axis.. I think the hidden best call about this whole week's worth of guidance ob surfing, is that this has so much upside potential. These runs occasionally dip into the well - we get a 18" of snow, that is for all intents and purposes, still "blizzarding" at the end of the run. I don't see much evidence in this NAM solution that this thing is tapering off right away after that...Looking aloft, that's going to collocate and take propably another 6 to 9 hours end that. That's probably good for another 8"... I dunno...
  8. That's a salient observation, no argument! Yeah I am a big fan of those 'total scaffold' orientations ( which can also be moving in time to offer some delicious headaches that way too...), for determining what I call 'correction vectoring' - all else being equal, if the vector is unaccounted for as remainder, ...future guidance tends to move in that direction.
  9. Ha, it might just save my wilting attitude toward this - I cried about needing 12zs to get with the program and see? That all it takes. LOL But it is the NAM... oy. I tell ya what though, to me, I almost wonder if the NAM's NW bias stuff is maybe transcended ( for lack of better word) by the total power of this thing. I mean, that 500 mb evolution ( either side of 66 hours ) seems that regardless of the former tendency this thing would have to really end up like that either way - it's just overwhelming matters in that sense.
  10. It's funny how that works when you get the pivoting band phenomenon. The storm's ballast comes in two passes: going west...coming back est. Mighty squalls within may last 2-3 hrs. It may snow 1-3"/hr ... maybe even 2-4". But in between, turbine wind gust pushing blowing snow mixes S- merely keeps the mystique going ... but the accumulation can really slack off outside the band, even though the air still looks milky out of window. But, the real VIP storms of lore, they don't do that as as much? They seem to have more like moderate footprints, with embedded S++ band(s) that amorphously nest with less obvious gradation. Plenty of examples of those... I think back to Jan 2005, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010 as a couple of examples, where Middlesex Co ended up "sorta" screwed. The storm set up bands west and east, and then the western came through and gave us 4-6", but because it hung around the pivot west of us for twice as long, they were able to clock 16" out that way. Meanwhile, the SE was cashing in on both a band and CF superposition stuff... Between those regions, we ended up with a solid storm, but it was JV compared. 2005 was also g-wave related but ..that's a whole' nother complexity ha!
  11. Getting caught up. I'm still back here on pg 146. Not a bad analysis on your part, but re the bold statement above: I agree, that is crucial leading parametric as this approaches the EC en masse. But, that could be enhanced(reduced) based upon the S/stream contribution as it fuses with the descending N/stream goodies. Euro has more GFS has less Now that may be so that the model 'notoriously' do the less? However, One aspect that comes to mind for me ( or back to mind and was forgotten - ), is this propensity in most guidance now spanning years, to consummately correct systems from the intensity side of the spectrum toward less, when relaying mid range handling toward inner times. So, that seems to be a competing concept to that bold statement. And admittedly ... it is anecdotal, but it's a frustratingly glaring persistent tendency/ is a repeating observation for me. This thing really cannot afford to get weaker, or it will collapse to those means that are too at sea at this point. It's an scenario where, as we get closer, it seem the only way to get this storm is to have the handful of members that are very intense and west, win. I noticed the Euro shaved 6 mb off all positions, some depth in the 500 mb deepest ... but no one mentioned that, because the snow QPF seems to be a distraction? But, this could be a beginning of it going E. I've seen it do this before, where it offers a model cycle where it's "attitude" gets torpid first, then it reshuffles. If more s/w ridge is rolling out ahead, it tends to cap early convection ferocity ahead of the q-v forcing ... The impetus being, if that flares off hugely right away, and the flow is flattish leaving the coast, it will rip NE out E of the 70 W longitude and stress the baroclinic field... limiting/robbing cyclogenesis back closer to said trough forcing. That is what the GFS operational has been designing. Folks ( not you ..) need to realize, a deeper, robuster cyclogen closer to the actual synoptic forcing, not relying on the volatile air and simpler triggers first ..., has physical height falls associated. That action feeds back constructively on the total manifold of the system. That's what the Euro's been suggesting.. .but, it has also been shaving 4-6 mb off the intensity since that mega run of 24/36 hours ago. Which is a sign that it is slipping some of that efficiency - at some point... it might break. Just trying to be fair and objective.
  12. I don't know what's been said over the last 15 pages overnight but for storm enthusiasm, that was not encouraging overnight for me. Short leash now ... if the 12z pulls this crap again, this goes east. We're 3.5 days out now ... This isn't 1996. Models are quite less likely to be wrong enough -
  13. I get the impression that we only have a consensus on a significant to major storm but we don’t have a consensus on position… That’s about it good night
  14. Those are important differences between those two guidance at 90 hours quite significant actually in terms of how they’re going to drive the surface. The CMC closes the 500mb sfc off at around 90 hours overlapping Long Island… GFS’s is still wide open at that point
  15. Yes… Well aware. Unfortunately those “subtle” variances are utterly crucial and make for huge difference with a storm that has this kind of power. It doesn’t appear to be a proportional relationship either, just looking at this from orbit. If the GFS is 10% inefficient we seem to get really big difference in the northwest position blah blah feedback physical processes
  16. Imho these GFS runs over the last two days through this one tonight at 0Z…are clearly inconsistently consuming the southern stream, and it’s bearing upon what happens downstream off the eastern seaboard I don’t think I can look at this any other way from a meteorological perspective.
  17. Very poor continuity with southern contribution. Can’t even really see any kind of trend with that aspect. also seeing some issues with N stream too, tho those are more subtle. It’s trying to kick.
  18. I haven’t been paying attention to that specifically. In this situation I don’t have a lot of faith in the mid. I think there’s probably a data sampling issue going on and those intervals are going to be suspect first
  19. It senses to me as thought entire product systemically is dropping/..or perhaps 'missing' some 20% of the momentum of prior cycles - cross guidance too. It's just paltrier ... NCEP cited this notion about a strong S/W mechanical presence sending s/w ridging out ahead, to where it constructively interferes with the Atlantic L/W ridging... (Euro), and so ... ( and I agree with them ) missing 20% leads to an an early escape - it's interesting the oper. version performed as it did. It appears be western member now... Man.. this model has for days really been attempting least plausible reason it can to diminish the specter of this thing LOL... I guess NCEP's had it. They're flying reco I hear ? Pretty amazing... they must feel as we do that the larger scale hemisphere is anchoring this system, so it's "worth it" - I dunno.
  20. It’s better overall from what I’m seeing but it suppressing you ur way. it’s inched west overall. Deeper QPF into SE zones down thugs way etc dont sweat it though. This model’s in mid trend … I’m suspecting 00z my be interesting.
  21. This is not a “warm core” cyclogenesis or maintenance stages either, unless it can be specifically analyzed that way … etc “Warm seclusion” is a separate phenomenon that is not that uncommon with RI cyclones This is a baroclinic system; different thermodynamic engine to barotropic
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