Typhoon Tip

There could be early heat S of 45 N as far NE as Chicago later in the month after we get past/exhausted that -EPO cold load here in the foreground. interesting. The telecon spread is beginning to enter the less statistically significant warm season ... but, the AO(epo/nao) appear to rapidly neutralize to N/S standard deviation really by the end of this week 1. After that, the PNA is meandering meaninglessly above and/or below 0 SD itself which amounts to neutral. I see the zonal tendency to the field still hinted in the cinema out in time between the Date meridian and California over the Pacific... I wouldn't be shocked if we see a low amplitude (spatial ) warm SW release in over the last 7 to 10 days of the month. Zonal tendencies also tend to precede ridging and then sure enough, the long range does show a ridge between Hawaii and the WC ... concomitantly, heights fall over the Great Basin.

Are your lilacs leafing out? I've had the unfortunate reality of having lived at this address now 7 or 8 years longer than I had originally envisioned of my future life ... and over the course of the extended stay I have observed lilac bloom behavior as getting early and earlier every year. Right now, the leafs are young but unfurling, and there are adolescence bouquets emerging too. This may be the earliest yet What can I say ...I'm a nerd. For some reason I notice things like that and they stick to my memory like Rain Man

In fact, any day this week that ends up more sun than clouds ...with winds light while the deep, life-heat suckin Labrador death air doesn't invade inland, probably goes a 1-3 ticks above machine numbers. Also, that cold raw rain with east drill wind scenario on Thursday has been attenuating. The GGEM fails its arrival altogether at this point. Attenuating systems happens in the guidance anyway ( for unrelated whatever reason - ) but combining that tendency with the sun homogenizing the ambient hemisphere ... those larger scaled wave events are all suspect.

Pine is yellow. That yellow resin on exposed surfaces in mid spring is typically pine. Y'allz living up in dem dar wooded hills with dem other bango twangers, you probably already know that but just sayn'

The global models seem to be caving to seasonal forcing. The earlier synoptic complexion from a few days ago drove the 18th - 24th into orchard failure cold wave but so much of that has eased since then that what's implicated now may only be marginally damaging if at all, spanning fewer days as well. I still expect some cool anomalies to pervade S-SE Canada, draped perpaps as far down as IND-DAY-PHL type latitude ( more N of course...) but the scale and degree of the -EPO driven interlude cutting into spring vibe as though back to early March is all but gone at this point. Look at the 00z operational Euro's 850 mb layout at 12z on the 22nd, and compare it to 12 hours later - sun is embarrassing that air mass with that modulation at 850, a classic seasonal forcing ending winter whether winter wants to end or not. The original outlook from a few days back was not doing this, either. It's interesting that the models suddenly do so now.

We green up this week... Some of that is already obvious, with shrubbery leaf out and flowers. Lawn/fields are green. But by this time next week I would expect larger stemmed species to at least be sitting on the edge of their bed. The Norway buds will be swollen if not cracked. Red maple were hinting their spring hues last week but have since fully flushed. Closing the book on the mud season chapter. Big motivator in green up is that first week's worth of days keeping the night above trigger temperatures. Can't be car top frosting every morning, or the sun powered afternoon nape days are fake and the foliage knows it. It will slow things down.

MAV is 73 at BDL and 70 at ASH Mid April sun, forcing an air mass such as this, should bust machine numbers somewhat on the cool side. That's typical of spring transition season - MOS/machine products tend to cap the T ~ 1 to 3 F lower than actual. I've always wondered why that is. It seems it's always been that way. Anyway, light d-slope under 850s around +5C and ceiling coverage going to nil is a bud buster on April 15

https://www.noaa.gov/news/last-month-was-earths-warmest-march-on-record It'll be interesting to see if April does this ...

A lot of this isn't novel ... but I'm particularly interested in the statements surrounding the oceanic C02 --> 02 possible collapse https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-spain-alarm-ocean.html

...and apologies for the seemingly dystopian bias but it is what it is. All that stuff Bluewave mentions are problems that are technologically soluble - hence the race. And again ... I believe technology has to solve this, because the other solutions are just untenable - Also, I very much agree with Don that mitigation is the shorter route to salvation - in fact, it's the only route if one can project the problem into the future logically. You cannot merely adapt to a burning barn. Sending the planet into an uncontrolled accelerating hot house makes that metaphor apropos, unfortunately. In other words, adaptation only works within a range that this CC thing will easily burst well outside of. Part of mitigation is both behavioral, and technologically assisted working together. I just read and hear this idea of the native adaptability of the human species ... .yeeeah, that's one of those bargaining statements that is both true and untrue - offering a 'stay of execution' that belays accepting the truth. Particularly in the extended consequential context of CC going on unrestrained and indeterminably. You'll get to a point where you can no longer adapt. This stuff is academically obvious, frankly.

Not really ... What I "want" ? No, that is beside the point. What needs to happen, that is the point I was trying to make - however well, notwithstanding. We cannot sell CC mitigation and/or correcting tech and policy to the highest bidder. The virtue cannot be in profit. It has to be in recognition of the problem at a personal level that triggers flight or fight, unfortunately. Humans don't seem to 'believe' urgency unless it appeals that way. And since we cannot taste or touch, see or smell CC ... etc etc Anyway, I like that 2nd bold statement there. I've often thought to compared this to a race between making technology accessible to everyone as a means to survive, prior to time running out. That, and tech also directly fixing the problem. Maybe that is the entry into Kardashev 1 civilization ranking - when a species gets to this brink but then succeeds. Sci Fiction's "Star Trek" provided matter-energy exchange replication. Not meaning to imply that is relevant to objective reality by mentioning. Just an example of tech 'winning the race'. All the essentials become essentially free... etc etc, and there's no basis for greed. That's unlikely in our life time... But out there, some where there probably is in the infinitum of cosmic probabilities, societies that have succeeded.

yeah, nothing markets popcorn and coke-able severe events like this ...

All operational models now essentially on the same page for p.o.s. next weekend. yay

Mm... surviving CC cannot be about money. In fact....that's entirely trivial, really. Money is but a human invention. I mean... not you per se ( I realize what you were after above and it is not your problem - ). The 'societal machinery' is autopilot-attempting to mediate everything through the lens of dollars and cents - but unfortunately ... the natural order is 100% mutually exclusive to that invention. Money is internal to the 'human bubble,' a delusion in the sense that it's ability to solve problems is not what it seems because humans have a tendency not to see beyond the boundary. The human construct bubble has served a very good purpose. There's no question. It's the ( sorry, gross cliche incoming...) threads in the fabric of civilization. It's what creates our human cooperative cloth. It allows the primitive tribal 150 member "entrusted" model of antiquity, to function at scales of population that are so large in scalar numbers that it's impossible for even the finest polymaths to completely wrap their heads around the far reaches of such population numbers. It's the collective belief in the "intrinsic" value of money that keeps people operating in relative unison, well beyond the periphery of the tribal size. Noah Harari's "Sapiens" - is vert a good read. He finely describes the historical significance of economic emergence on large scales, and why-for how it assisted transforming humanity's primitive tribal states ...ultimately into countries ( spanning some 7 to 10,000 years to do so), replete with all the modern amenities that allow both population to explode to billions over ...but extending the life expectancy by decades. Except along the way( oops ), humanity repeatedly demos its willingness to die by it. And I'm not talking just about CC in the current context, either. Wars are fought over it sponsored by state, and individuals act out antisocially for take. If we make decisions designed to ameliorate CC's certain dilemmas based upon it? Doesn't seem to project very well. It may be that humanity doesn't otherwise know how. That may be so. But tough shit. Adaptation and mitigation mean nothing if mass-extinction fractures critical connections between inextricably codependent nodes of "Gaia" ( for lack of better word). The self-correcting super structure no longer corrects. Pull enough 'keystone relationships' out of that web, and life cannot be supported. While people are trying to figure out how to pay for CC?

Might get a couple ...three hours of relative improvement SE of say HFD-CON. Satellite appears to be aligned with the NAM's thinking of low ceiling RH (ie 'dry slot' ) punching N, rapidly overtaking the morning.

Wondering if the -EPO has legs during week 2 though. Yuggly!

OT ...when I was young, the isobaric gradient on weather charts was always 1008, 1012, 1016. Whether displayed in weather books, or on the evening weather reports, that seemed to be a standard interval = 4mb. When did this change and why? I'm sure there's a "reason" that it is absolutely necessary (), but I wonder if it's "really" just because graphics tech is advanced enough to make for dramatic looking weather products for sale. What do I know. When I was young in this business ... I had a pretty good handle on wind just by the familiarization I had evolved over the year using the 4 mb differential. I'm sure I can adapt and probably should have by now but it's annoying when everything looks likes 50 mph rest state velocity wind must be carrying on.

Today is miserable ... no other way to cut it up. yuck -

Yeah honestly I wasn't looking at the 'trend' per se - as in comparing to a span of recent cycles. I was just looking at the 00z cross model comparison, and it immediately reminded my of what the GFS does in springs sometimes. I still would venture the GFS is too deep in general though.

Typically the operational runs will be more amplified than their greater numbered ens means diluting the outlook - particularly further out in time. However, the operational GFS's 00z and 06z runs were excessive to me. It regresses the local hemisphere back an entire month or more, relative to climatology. I tend not to believe that. Something about the physics of present state of the ambient field on our side of the N. Hemisphere is constructively interfering with the GFS native tendency to have cold heights/bias, out in time. It's like the nursing staff forgot it's daily Thorazine dose and it went manic with it's native tendency. It may not be just the operational version, either. I compared the GEFs vs the EPS and GEPs and it's entire N. Hemisphere is eye-ball averaging some 10 dm colder overall compared to the former ens means once we get out to D9 ( 00z suite). Short version, the GEFs forecast system is systemically cold - perhaps too much so ... - and I am suspicious of that. I've seen the GFS do this pretty much every year since they started ensemble line pumping out new GFS model versions every year - a practice that began circa 2015. It tends to modulate the field toward a cold bias out in time, which of course consequentially might make it bad at modulating for spring warming. It just does this in the spring and puts out a series of charts like it gives up and runs back to Feb 20th

There's a warm signal in the east between roughly the 14th and 20th that the models, particularly the GFS ( which is normal for that tool's cold tendency in late mid and extended range - ) have been imagining innumerable ways in which to scrub it out of the synoptic outlooks in that time range.

We were picking up a buddy in Concord NH, then destined to N VT. That sort of limited our ability to choose routes and so there we were ... in the Notch, Canon on the left, the Lafayette sisters on the right, car fronts nearly tappin' car butts the entire 12 or whatever miles of bottle necked nimrod civil-engineering that is through there. Took us ~ 2 hr and 15 min to squeeze through but then 75 mph on the other side the rest of the way up. We made it in time, though. We were going to hit Lyndon State University/college but we were cutting it close; St Johnsbury area was well enough inside the totality region and would do just fine. Pulled off for a random meadow right around about 2:pm. 10 minutes later there were many cars pulled over with us. Small families here ... nerds with telescopic lens tech there. One dude had a welder's mask that looked just exactly like a Storm Trooper's helmet. The dimmer switch turning down became noticeable around 40% ... we all seemed to agree. It was subtle yet palpably, a "weird looking day light" permeated the ether of air and sky from that point onward. That's what really stood out, that eerie kind of sun light still shining. The air seemed to almost shimmer with a silvery translucence. My friend leans in, "It's like the sun shining on Mars" ...Around that point, ... nearing 60%, we noticed that sun on your face and arms, though still shining, delivered almost no discernible heat sensation. May as well have been as impersonal as a flashlight ... Slowly the dimming continued. Just then... nearing ~ 95% eclipse, we saw a remarkable sight. The shadow of the moon specifically darkening the SW-W horizon. The day was so fantastically lucky, too. For although it was entirely clear overhead and around the vicinity of the sky that hosted the enfeebling sun, a high layer of cirrus wisps existed just to the S. It betrayed a rather discrete edge where on one side, pale sun still lit the clouds, on other ... disappearing into that darkened deeper blue abyss. This line of shadow extended both above the clouds to space, and below in the air extending toward the ground. I wonder if we would have noticed this at all if not for those clouds enhancing that boundary. As we stood there amazed by that spectacle of like divine scale ... suddenly, the thumb and finger on the dimmer switch turned the dial the rest of the way all at once, and the pallid light was abruptly gone. The whole crowd erupts in cheering and applauding. It wasn't completely like night though. We were in totality, no doubt, but it was more apt to suggest it was like that 30 minutes passed sunset, the dim side of dusk on a summer evening. And yes it is true... the temperature crashed some 10 or 15 F. It was 64 on the dash when we rolled up. About 3 minutes after totality ended and the lights in the grand auditorium had risen like a minute past final curtain call, we spun tires to get the hell ahead of the traffic tsunamis going the other way... The dash thermometer was 49. Venus and other stars were visible in the navy blue-black sky surrounding the blackest black you can imagine, about the size of your thumb nail at arm's length. It was a black hole. Perfectly circular, demarcated by a fuzzy umbra of light emanating in all directions. The corona. I thought of a Quasar in the moment..heh. There was a tiny orange-red diamond of light, just a pin prick in size around the SE quadrant during totality - we later learned this may have been a Prominence, maybe even a CME underway. Just f'n wow man.

67 glorious degrees made ever more ebullient by flawlessly unadulterated mid April sun intensity. Despite the fervor of all those syllables ( lol ), it's ultimately fake April warmth just the same, as the DP's are only 29 to 34 throughout the region. Inject any moisture at all into this air mass and it would slide back into the 44 F pit of despair. There's a BD being analyzed in the standard metric surface analysis at WPC ... With the high pressure lurking NW of Maine ... building ESE in time, it doesn't seem there is much of any reason to assume said BD doesn't eventually end up down in NJ somewhere. Question is when ... typically about 1:pm on a day like this given this synopsis below ...we'll be flirting with 70 F and then all the sudden ... 20 minutes later it's 49 F with flags pointed SW. But, it's still 59 in PSM which is bit unusual given the time of year/climo along with this below - their winds just came around to ENE though so reality's in the mail

This missing mathematics in everyone's contribution to the present stream of dialogue is the deltas The d(CO2) since the Industrial Revolution has exceeded the positive rate of change since the paleo-antiquity. Many ...many millions of years. It is far more likely that the total manifold of the Earth system that become "climate" have not fully responded ... which makes events like last springs global sea and air spike, quite disconcerting.

Oh. Indirectly related ...that maps seems a bit positive biased for around here. There's no snow on any yard or field. There's just these smaller piles skirting parking lots and what-not. I don't think those entrails are what this chart above is graphically presenting. Despite looking and sensibly appealing cold and gloomy that last 2 days since that event, we've very proficiently eradicated the 3 1/2 of dense sleet/snow mixture.