Typhoon Tip

Tomorrow

wasn't expecting this sky improvement. It's now jumped into the mid 60s, and vis imagery/loops opened up regions N of the Pike for what appears to be a couple few hours of decent heating.

I'm okay - ish -with it because Friday and Saturday have been getting better and better. If we are chopping it up between the two, that's better than always not. Seems like we were getting closer to the latter but this week's breaking the mold.

Yeah, I get it - I was just adding my first hand accounting to/for the consideration... UHI is intense in that region. That much I am in direct observation. But, that also doesn't preclude the possibility of instrumentation, too. Both could certainly be true -

heh... you may be right, buuut ... you know, my sister lives in S. Jersey. When I've visited there, I know first hand from our trips over the bridge that that city sprawl is truly immense, concrete and iron for miles in every direction. ...Summer solar glaring away... I'd be willing to at least test the notion that the UHI is particularly enhanced around that region of the megalopolis. Same sort of effect up around EWR's industrial complex, downtown and straddling the highway ... The AP is right there -that fuggin region is like an iron cauldron over a witch's torch.

It's funny Brian because at like 7:30 I was looking at the vis loop and thought, shit ... cloudy by 11. Fuck if April doesn't steal another - the only way we would end up being more sun than clouds is if NY and NE PA were to somehow evaporate magically. I just looked and "magically" those regions are just mare's tails now - or appear to be so. Buys us an extra 3 or so hours of at least partial sun. 56 ... 25 recovery since 7am ...not bad. Today is a contender for biggest diurnal of the year I suspect. We have a hUUUge solar loading now that we are late summer sun intensity, with just the right amount minoring mixing down slope, with 850s to +6 or so... etc etc... we were 31 here in the Nashoba Valley. It's going to be interesting to see this take off.

yeah, Scott, you can really sense the changes in the pattern foot ... right around 90 hours. The behavior in the loops in all sources appears to change seasons - Euro is alternating between fronts to mild, if not warmth, with limited or no BN on the scour sides right out to the end of the run. The GFS as usual is trying to sell winter until July - it fights seasonal change as a model bias every spring since the rapid new version era started around 2015. Not sure why so but it's clearly always the colder solution at this time of year, ever since. Despite this, even it has 540 dm thickness now safely N of the CAN/U.S. border latitudes. Just this one annoying cold shot here Wed ..but Friday may late high and than it's "soar Saturday"

with invisible CBs ? haha

Yeah.. too far out to be dependable - as we well know ... But damn delicious eye candy as a spring/warm enthusiasts. Kind of like seeing a D10, 959 histrionic bomb on the eastern tip of LI, with Kuchera layin down no shame 50s. It's like "Gone With The Wind" in one hand, "Tropical Titty charts" in the other - no clue what is the best cinema in history.

Were you alive in May 2005 ?

Tomorrow should be pretty damn balmy... at least in metro west of Boston up through S NH and down the 84 corridor into the HFD zones. Cool/cold (whatever adjective one needs to use ...) air mass mid week... then, the there are wholesale changes over our side of the hemisphere.. particularly 20th+. And as I've been pointing out, they are both definitively different, but also milder by implication. So, we may be a week away from the end of "taking sweet time" era. We'll see... I don't wanna be skewered because it's still April, and April's strap one on even in the best of years... but that's just the way it all's leaning at this time.

Re the pattern going forward: As I outlined yesterday ... 'even if the ridge doesn't prevail, the pattern foot is milder' that seems to be the case as of this morning. The overnight runs removed the cherry on top with the warm dome that some of them were teasing, but... the principle aspect of having the 540 dm thickness contour retreated to 55 N still is intact. These are like +2 to +7 850 mb days with nights above freezing ... probably low 40s to upper 60s as the mean. The cherry on top could certainly also materialize/show up in future guidance, too. We just need to get on the other side of the 20th

I dunno .. I get that this is a social media ... " loosely" weather related ... and that it's free speech - and that's good! In an era of leaning fascism ( unthinkable in 2025 that is the case...), the bastions of unencumbered speak-easy's definitely need to prevail. But, that also doesn't lend to the most rational contribution, either, not coming from Americana. LOL Imho, there will always be someone that likes what the consensus does not, but just from my many decades of suffering along side humanity I feel above 90% confident that any consensus would return that the weather the last two days has been a rim to rim shit show April weekend. Not much else needs to be elaborated or mutated from that distinction. Attempting to gaslight people into feeling this was a better weekend than it was? okay... Not sure what the motivation in the discussion is honestly... Personally, I've gaslit myself into thinking this weekend is "tolerable", because of this: 36000433131 -3511 062308 54150803 Those are 8 pm tomorrow later afternoon numerical profiles numbers off the NAM. They've been as such pretty much for the last day and a half of cycles. What the '3131' bold means, those are the RH at the 700 and 500 mb levels. < 50% is clear by definition. Now...this does not account above 500 mb, where cirrus blankets roam ... but I checked those levels at Pivotal and the they are not 70% or above, indicating that sun will be penetrating. What the '2308' bold means, those are wind direction and speed. 23 ==> 230 degrees .. which is WSW, at 08 is 8 kts. So ... very light breezes from a warm wind direction under afternoon sun so far. What the '150803' bold means, those are temperatures in the vertical profile. So, +15C at 980 mb ( mid way up the Prudential Tower altitude), and then +8 at 900 mb and +3 at 800 mb respectively. This requires understanding how to read a blank skew-t log -p diagram which I'm not taking an audience that has even read this far through that education .. .but, given the light wind and ample sun, and +6 or +7 estimated mixing temperature, that's probably about 21 or 22C down on the streets. 22C = ~ 71 If we can verify that ... it sucks it's on a Monday, but clock out at 2:30 if you can for a sanity hour and it's at least a reach-around gesture by an otherwise demonic month

And by the way ...I had a pretty good girder buzzer thunder rumble in the 2-3 hour period. It woke me up and I looked out the window at very low visibility. Short and sweet though.

It's more than just that look though. Two aspects leap out to me that suggests this is when spring really begins for us: the first being that the troughs stop amplifying as they are moving toward 80W around D5/6 That behavior is significant. the 2nd aspect is that while that is happening, the 540 dm thickness retreats to above 55N also beyond that time range. Altogether, right around that 120 to 144 hours, the local hemisphere fundamentally changes the mode toward a better seasonal correlation. This ridge above is "extra" on top... Even without it, we'd probably be 40s by night and 70 chances by day. BD season notwithstanding but that's more local. The only problem I'm seeing is the WPO ( west pacific oscillation). It's been excessively negative... This has transmitted an unwanted wave signature downstream through the PNA domain ...ultimately driving tendencies for troughs to dig and cold here in the east continent... It's not abundantly clear if that's really changing. The recent ensemble means do suggest it's trying to reposition toward the Date Line ... which sends a -EPO on a west limb surge... That drops the Great Basin heights and up the eastern heights go... the operational runs seem to be responding to that forcing lately - that's what we're seeing. So the sensitivity seems to be related in getting all that to actually happen...

This was a pretty classic dynamic spring blue beauty. The sounding was very isothermal below the growth level ...right around +.1C ha... seriously though, a little bit of aggy action suspending through that was going to drill the surface to the freezing point. We were 32.4 here with 3.5" ...settling immediately to 2 by midday and now grass blades are poking through.

I guess ... altho I don't exactly know what "tig ole' biddies Monday" actually means but sure. LOL It's two days away using the NAM - let's bear that in mind. Plenty of time for April to strap on the CD and go to work on that outlook

Looking at the NAM profiles off this 12z run this morning ... the difference between tomorrow, 18 to 21z, compared to the next day, Monday, between those same hours would be spectacular. Tomorrow in that run would be slate grays falling mist through mid afternoon - eastern New England being worse for it. Temperatures in a dungeon 42-like energy sucking torture. Monday, 71 F with cerulean blue sky through which an unabated late summer solar bath takes place. Wind in the grid is like 9kts from 280 degrees ...down-sloped from RUT to BOS. Very very difficult to remain focused on work ... They should have a headline codified for this sort of thing do to the shear loss in regional GDP that's going to happen from all the early check-outs. Fuck-it type weather refugees filling parks and sidewalk cafes ... etc.

This is getting weird... mid April now and there's no sign of seasonal change. I'm talking about the pattern mode, mind you - this is obviously not going on all over the world, either. It's only in N/A. Until this general persistence yields, it is still winter. This is way ....waaaaay too much powerful N/stream and tunneling through an unusually deep latitude for this time of year.

Embrace it ... it's the only way to "meta-physically" get it to end.

Basically just cat paws for most based on that description. we snowed back to cat paws ...back to snow... back to cat paws...spanning some 7 hours with zip accum, even on car tops, nothing the other morning and ended up approaching 50 F by the end of the day. The 12z Euro proffered some hope for Sunday, with improving by mid day considerably over the previous run. It's a weak bag aloft/closing system with weak gradients beneath it, so it's not like a system in the winter that "anchors" in the models... they can error on how close and inundating the low will be even at short ranges within those synoptic circumstance.

HAHA. ... might have helped if i included the y axis (height)... but the top is higher in elevation ...etc. just saying that a, it's not abundantly clear this was truly a down migrating warm anomaly associated to the SSWs and b, probably a hint to that uncertainty ( if not 'no' ), the AO didn't really demonstrate a big negative phase forcing - the correlated index depression doesn't go way up and down like that... the whole behavior is whack really.

Unclear (bold) .. to me, anyway. I mean at a glance this ( below..) looks a little like a down-welling mass, but not convincingly as such compared to other more obvious/verified examples. The morphology of this is kind of screwy... It really looks a little like both down-welling, and just simultaneous multi-layer warming took place. Either way, clearly some residual thermal inversion sort of "spilled" ( right side ) of this graphical illustration ( source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ) ... pretty low, low enough not to be a terrible correlation with blocking. However, the AO did not respond so well (farther below). If anything, smoothing out these camel toe migrations the mean's been rather positive. So it's all unclear

It's a good question ... it's endemic to winters lately, since ~ 2002 with more coherency, where compression in the mid or core winter heights times limits the middle spectrum cyclones, but interestingly ... the rare bombs have more power.. Anyway, as the seasonal onset of lessening gradient (spring) sets the flow more flaccid ... there's a window there whence we observe more late season blocking. More energy can then get expressed at smaller scales for one, lending to these types of systems. But also, just in general these cold meander patterns and associated storms make springs ( autumns too ) become more wildly variable between cold snaps and warm interruptions. This year appears to be much of this going on, but super-imposing is this lingering planetary Rossby signal, the same one that kept us chilly ( relatively so...) much of the way, anyway. When the flow is compressed, that speeds up the baser wind velocities - it's like an exchange. As we add one or two more of those 500 mb height lines in the total gradient, the balanced geostrophic wind speeds physically increase. Physically, the speeding up is likely proportional to some negative interference quotient that the models seem to have issues with, particularly in the extended performance. They seem to normalize the neg out - it may be partial in why we have trouble maintaining amplitude.

yeah...that's likely to change imho. Not intending to make a challenge with that, just sayn' there are larger hemisphere changes going on by then so we'll see. Namely, the EPS/GEFS/GEPs all send the WPO block across the N Pac and end up with a low amplitude -EPO, which at this time of year, tends to create flat troughs in Great Basin longitude...transmitting a ridge over the eastern mid latitude continent. Already seeing that manifest in the long range operational versions, and the spatial synoptics of the ens also hinting. It's probably a race... but the Euro operational signal is massively asynchronous with all that... and besides, I've yet to see amplitude not fail to diminish or devolve into something more benign, when moving eye candy in that range into the mid and eventual wheelhouses.