Typhoon Tip

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region. sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred.

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "

amazing how warm that's on the brink of being, too. the unabashed 7 0 if that mean p-boundary aligns 100 mi NW

heh... 0-4 so far on that post by Kev

Well... obviously at 200+ hours none of this has much value but just for muse, you have the GFS backing a blue cling-snow bomb into a grid failed eastern NE, while the Euro's pushing up premature daisy shoots at that same time.

ding ding ding! 'what does he win, Johnny!' Now... one could have read my three paragraph physical dissertation on synoptic NVA's damping effects down at the short wave PVA scale as it was written probably three different ways over the last three days OR, 'had almost no chance' would have equally sufficed -

the problem is ... he and others like him just lampooned the GFS last week with pretty much the exact same sentence LOL I mean, any model too ugly to tongue bathe the balls of horny storm visions is on the #MeToo list with these people

I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history ... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass: on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports. While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm. Priceless. The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining LOL

It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe? anyway, I'd like to see less clouds. Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things. haven't seen satellite ..okay, looks like sun destructive pancake advanced in. maybe it cycles out...we'll see

Not a bad approach. It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful: can't paint without a canvas

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of cute handling, in general. Not until quantum computing takes over ha. These larger smoothing techniques are as important in the total deterministic effort - or should be. I don't like the fact that the 00z doesn't phase that small intermediate stream S/W. It just had more power in the S stream, and by virtue of that...it got closer - but still short of getting it done. Then the 06z arrives. Technically, it's not even a phase. The southern aspect is pealing away S ...not that dissimilar to the GFS. It's just that it's taking that intermediate wave the GFS doens't curve in, and abruptly stemwinding that feature. It's enough of a continuity break in total handling to pause.

so in trying to analayze the behavior of the -PNAP response to the -PNA... it appears the GFS and in fact the GEFs system on whole is assessing a quicker -PNAP response, overall. The slightly slower Euro system in moving the conus into the -PNAP response, constructs critical curvature in the W. That subtle lag is tipping/conducting the N stream to dump small S/W space crucially SE through roughly MN is the 06z Euro version. Flat happy GFS left ... curve happy Euro right That's the whole ball game... this really subtle variance allows some kind of delicate phasing opportunity in the Euro system.

Index method says pump breaks, but we'll see. Anomalies relative to indexes can happen. It's rarer but, if the relay off the Pacific is more powerful ... that can offsets the plummeting PNA. That's about the only way; because otherwise the falling PNA means rising anti-cyclonic forcing. So if your trying to mechanize a cyclone in the midst of raising anti-cyclonic means... that both intuitively, and geo-physically/mathematically is going to introduce some challenges. The GEFs/GFS is physically subsuming the ejected wave space with an overwhelming -d(PNA) - in keeping with the above concept. The EPS/Euro, does less of that ... It's also quite a bit stronger/more coherent looking with the relay off the Pacific down near the upper Baja. It's almost like threading the needle at a pattern scale, not at the wave space... The integration of the ejected wave space with the surrounding medium is very decimal determined - so to speak. If the surrounding -d(PNA) is overly applied in the GFS even fractionally, that in step is giving something more to the eject wave space and its coherency then means a different fate ..etc. If it is however more correct, the Euro's full of shit. Brian's also right about those idiosyncratic feature handling; they'll play a role. But suspect getting the above ironed out is just as if not more important - more damping (GFS) and it's a moot. Predicated on the idea that the Euro's more right...that's when all those other headaches kick in

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

Little bit of an ensemble fight

I'm inclined to think the EPS system is overly conserving the amplitude of that wave space in attempting to send it through the enormous non-linear destructive interference of the -d(PNA). It's not like it's dropping. It's going down like a disgraced prom queen. It's trying to send a cyclonic signal through a field where the anticyclonic potential is rising. GFS might not be precisely handling the bits and pieces but in principle, it latched on to this deadening signal sooner, has been consistent since, and actually fits the motif better. Anomalies nest inside anomalies some times.... I guess one way to over come is to have so much power at the lower scale, that it can offset the larger scale tendency to cancel it out. A scenario that seldom occurs.

No thx

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

It's almost like the GFS is dropping the W into a -EPO tendency in the first week, and then walking away Meanwhile, the index interpretation is offers uncertainy. That N. Pac thing from late Novie through Dec is back in its haunt, but it's not clear whether it will mean same or similar or somehow idiosyncratically different over the eastern N/A continent. This looks like a cold stormy pattern at a glance but that ridge up there is sort of in the hybrid WPO/EPO space which complicates matters, particularly if it is resonant and not moving.

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January. I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up. It's not the same beast as other. The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant. We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span. Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt. It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.

Here ya go .... this oughta chap some asses in here https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

Not sure anyone's invalidated this winter... ? that's the spontaneous crowd physical digression of the hour I guess. LOL No...this seemed to get going when Scott and I made the factual observation of the dearth of coastal storm types this winter. That's just reality. There is no amount of virtual space on the web whereby people can hide and recreationally think reality is something else, that will change what reality really was ( you should be laughing at this point - ) The reasons why for that? there's worthwhile scientifically -based exploration there. Some may not be able to handle what that is? Seems that way ...

Not a bad point here. It's not a zero-sum gain. We threaded the needle in a sense during that Jan 25th event. Perhaps sort of skewing that toward being less obvious, it was just so ginormous. One might not be inclined to think of that system thatt way when there were ongoing multi-regional scaled simultaneous impacts. It's like yeah, it threaded the needle but the needle's eye was size of a galaxy. ha! Anyway, fast flow in and of itself doesn't mean no storms. It's more of timing, and also a spatially constraining factor. There can be fast moving bombs, just less likely observed. There can be big sprawling events, as Jan 25 demoed rather nicely... but over the long haul, we're more likely to observe narrower corridor impact ... if intense, briefer. The compression can damp out events ... but we shouldn't think of the fast flow that happens in compression as really being the cause.

I wasn't talking about you, personally bro - Just a comment about the audience. And it is factually true... because the majority of this social media's return/habitual contributors and players and pastimers both have not suffered and succeeded dynamics, but also in turn don't really present much evidence that there's been supplements.

Check-out motives are leaning, man... Another ad nauseum aspects folks hide their heads in a brown paper sack like a cat trying to evade a 5 year-old tail puller is that the sun is now formally ended winter. It's turned up the inflection out of the dish pan wattage and we are in the transition season - today being the first full day. It doesn't mean much in the dailies ... obviously big winter events can transpire into May in this piece of shit spring geography ... but, excluding those rarer returns, there is also a futility to looking at a winter event on guidance - for me anyway - that I cannot escape going forward. Plus... winter and snow is not everyone's bag. In here, if you voice visions of joy outside those confines ( and it is a prison of perception by the fuckin way ) it can be so liberating. LOL no but I have a lot of outdoor stuff I enjoy too much. That combined with the fact that it is really undeniable that the verification routinely falls short of this "model cinema" pastime/investing, patience wears thin by now. And, right at the time the sun is noticeably brighter and hotter. heh -