Typhoon Tip

It's conceptually interesting ... who would have thunk we'd be playing needle threader head games on a NW-SE trajectory. haha. wow. Just got back from eve stuff so way behind, but I just remember the runs from 00z last night and comparing to this new NAM run reminds me of playing that game but I've just not seen it from this direction. fascinating

coming almost straight S ...limited/no moderation before ALB-BOS gets loaded. Kind of a brief 'Montreal Express' looking at the sfc PP.

Unknown ... to me anyway. I will say that these cold nodes moving across southern Canada and clipping in here have been remarkably well lag-timed with these successive -EPO bursts. Both the Euro and CMC's recency have been showing a Jan 1-3rd cold plume with very deep 850s and low 500 mb hydrostats at the core moving N of Lake Superior ... thru Ontrario in that time range, and we see that 3 days prior there is a negative EPO burst again... it's been like that for that past 3 or 4 weeks. -EPO --> 3 to 5 days later we have ice fishers out there with their portable shacks. Anyway, it's not impossible that -EPO loads and then transitively ...something synoptically circumstantial like Friday morning sets up to then finish the delivery.

Looks like Ray down to Boston proper are getting some breezy snows?

Did you see that Friday morning ? holy gelid hell. That's a potent low level cold shot there. I've been watching that interval as it has been nearing and it's been getting colder. The profile is interesting at Logan, Albany and BTV ... all showing the 925 as colder than the 800 mb.

It's not snow you want ... it's snow depicted for a cinema-dopa connection. It's created out of advancing technology's affect ( and effect) going on with our species. LOL it's true though. If folks wouldn't "bi-polar" dial into the next model cycle you wouldn't have these group collective morosity waves that are more powerful than anything this type of persistent synoptic hemisphere ever had any hope of really delivering in the first place. But this latter aspect ... never seems to stop you. You have a big ridge in the middle longitudes of the continent, with a deep layer circumstantial NW flow - what part of that large scale footprint has ever correlated to significant snow? Not many. Stop on expectation failure one. Failure two, meanwhile ... the mid and ext range guidance give these 'so-so gets hammered' dopa hits, when guidance over all consummately proves over-amplified since antiquity at this point ...and invariably need be corrected down as assumption. This latter aspect has been explained to the point of advertisement. Heads nod, couple blinks ...then the next guidance run comes out and eyes roll back in head and orgasm quivers kick in all over again. The problem is that the return users in here are dopa challenged in their lives - most likely. Perhaps then channeling a means to fulfill it by creating this weather graphics triggering mechanism. Or they've just fallen victim to the "blue-light special" - psychotropic addictive aspect that is proven to be a thing. Either way ... you're allowing this device to dopa regulate you. I feel the former is correct, however, based upon my own experience. I have created hobbies and successes in areas of life that do not require this weather -related stuff. I get joy from those engagements... and, most importantly, when that happened, I stopped caring about the former - or caring as much. I mean... I like seeing the charts and evolution of interesting events. But it's not required. I think if folks understood these aspects it might help them self-regulate their moods better. That's the only purpose for bringing this up.

hahahaha.... damn! thought I got one past you. That part of it's a chode tug just cause I was being a dick, but I do see similarities among these years whether we/you/I want to see it or admit or not - and... I don't claim that it is CC outright. I am open to that being the case but more seriously, there was a speed/velocity saturation in the flow every one of these years that is/was/still is near the top of the geophysical ceiling during winter core. There's a reason all these air-land airline speed records have been set in the last 10 to 15 years, for those intercontinental flights over the N Pac and Atlantic. It's because they're traveling in the slip stream of mega jets, where they have to open the throttle and fly very fast to maintain lift ... which requires near sonic speeds relative to the stationary E... It's 200 kt 300 mb wind flow ... you gotta move the 60 ton vehicle at 600 mph to maintain the air-relative 500 whatever mph it is they need to stay fuel efficient ...etc. So regardless of the reason ( CC or the CD ) ... It's probably going to be observable in January ...again. It's based upon persistence for now.

ooh ooh I can help. Image a rope, and your snapping one end ... you'll see a wave move along the rope? that is the linear function/wave propagation. Now imagine that there are multiple wave functions propagating at once. You might have seen this experience in science... but what happens is the waves organize into a patterns that so long as the input force is proximal to steady, will then enter what is called 'resonance' - that resonance is a predictable standing wave event. What we are seeing in the Pacific northern arc out there is a remarkable case of resonance occurring at very large synoptic scale... the NAO that downs stream of that as a secondary resonance node on the "rope".

Agreed. I added this sentiment to that missive, " It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling. " But also, the Pacific --> N. America total wave signature is what creates the NAO btw. Not you per se, but folks may save some frustration if they finally get their minds wrapped around that. It's the mechanics downstream from the PNA domains idiosyncratic wave distribution. One of the reasons it's so difficult for the models is because it's largely driven to emergence through non-linear function - those that are applying forcing in a transitive interference, which are not visible. Just sayn'

Pistol to head? this January will be very close to: ...quite specific to that range, too.

right, not an SSW

it wasn't a canonical SSW behavior in the sense that there was no propagation for one. But, we had a near or at historic solar storm around then. I'm entertaining the possibility that the models were caught off guard by the solar flux arriving around the time they were modeling an intrusion event, and irradiating/breaking up crucial ozone densities - ozone is an important thermal conductor in the physics. The other aspect ...as I pointed this out at the time, it was not very clear in the modeling whether it was emerging above 50hPa level. It appeared to actually to be a punch up from the below from the topospheric bulge associated with the ( at the time) still being modeled N. Pacific height anomaly - they certainly did a good job with that ... just fantastically persistent feature. It resulted cold loading into the N/A either way so ... who's quibbling. I think there was some interpretation misuse going on at the time et al.

It's pathway to getting to this scalar layout is suspect tho. just sayn'

Whaaaa cluttering up a thread that’s 244 pages long? how the hell can you tell LOL

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-climate-misinformation-national-threat-canada.html

Will, it's a sneaky bomb potential .... concealed in the indexes.

Low probability/non-zero potential but this should monitored, neverthelesss ...

26.5th coming S of 12z fwiw-

You know the way that ridge bulges in the midwest like that and this thing comes down out of the northwest along the 540… starting as a zygote plume in N IL then strengthening E before diving southeast … it looks like an MCS in the summertime riding the thermodynamic gradient in this NAM solution

I'm testing the AI cluster with this 23rd thing ... Firstly, they're remarkably similar - which I find interesting, actually. It makes more questions for me. How is AI GFS and AI Euro, non-dispersive relative to each other? that's a weirdness. I still don't know more precisely how these models are constructed. What is actually processing. Until I do, it's voodoo ... Are they just probing the 'cloud' ( ugly pun) for the mean of a billion minds of both machine and man? If that's the case, of course they are always more encouraging for snow nearing Xmas, because it's tapping into the hopes and dreams of the latter. Heh. Or are they processing actual fluid and thermodynamic equations in the propagating of wave mechanics through a matrix. Something in between? I tried researching this question but I'm hit with a typical smoke-screen of marketing and promotional speech - or at least too much and losing patients.. Comes off a bit Wizard Of Ozian and the "don't pay attention to the man behind the curtain". Typical of the web though. The entire degenerative irony of the greatest invention of modern industry is that it's usefulness is run down by capital interest and greed. It's like just answer the fuckin question! no, you're not getting any money you petty f*n c*ts I digress. Merry Xmas. LOL

It can split NNE and SNE ( not sure i think you're in VT ?) anyway, the storm track can end up flopping like an unmanned fire hose because both tracks are supported ... sort of ending up between cutters and transfers... SNE rolls dice ending up shafted or SWFE 50/50 .. while mix gets to PF, and then it's powder snow up in CAR ... It's not impossible for easterly NAO's to even swash a warm sector or two. No coincidence we're seeing the operational runs flopping around as they have been.

The blocking that has been consistently depicted isn't really the type that backs warmth down into the Maritime and Maine if it helps. This is clearly favoring the eastern limb of the NAO domain. In that regime, if anything, you're likely to be in a mean WNW to at times N flow around the Maritime train-wreck low that is sourced by intermediate polar air over midriff Canadian Shield..

I'll double up on this sentiment, ... knowing that posting the way I do has eroded popularity to the point where I'm on people's probation and/or ignore list at this point. Ha! I'm "slightly" younger than you but I've been there now for ... shit, 10 years probably. Seeing 100" in 10 minutes in 2015 was like dad making you smoke a whole carton of cigarettes - it might actually work. LOL. But, I think the real reason for escaping the d-drip addiction is the repeating bad years since. Just unrelenting, and being that way regardless of all intents and purposes between the Joe D'aleo's, the NCEPs ... Bastardi 'n' cokes, Rays of sun reflecting of snow pack, or Death sentence to snowstorms just get Margrave to post anything about it. No matter who or what is predicted, ...god, just find something, anything better than doing these winters. I realize there's been a-b-c month here and there but using that clouds the reality of abuse. It'd be like Tina Turner's relationship with Ike. I still enjoy anticipating interesting Meteorology - but that goes for the entire spectrum of weather -related subject matter. I'm in the minority in the summer in here. I get it. But when I say I think it would be spectacular to see the complete shock-and-awe ( which is possible as CC continues gaining momentum, just a matter of time - ) retraction of the polar boundary and sustaining green lawn warmth in winter months, that's just the amazement of nature talking. There's 0 give a shitness for snow anymore over here. When and if there is an interesting weather event that is freezing or frozen in nature, that's just academic to me.

Do you think CC is playing a roll there lol