Typhoon Tip

The changes as we get past the Giggedy holiday are top latitude down ... The -WPO/-EPO totality is a big dawg hemispheric reordering. It actually originates from the the retrograde of the NAO across the Canadian archipelago ... to reposition into the Siberian-Alaska arc. That evolution drills a negative teleconnector down the Spine of the Rockies, first. This causes an upward height burst over eastern continental mid latitudes. - the Euro is too dramatic with that. - the GFS looks suspiciously like not enough. Obviously this is all waaaaaay the fuck out at the temporal event horizon ... beyond which there be dragons! Buuuut, at a base climate/statistical level, if these teleconnector prognostics are correct with the higher latitude blocking reconstruction taking place, turning warm for 2 or even 5 days whatever over eastern N/A mid latitudes is solid fit. It's a matter of how much or little.

Longer range teleconnectors like Dec 1-5th for winter implications

Not just being cynical/snarky … I can imagine that discussion going something like subscriptions are down. Maybe followed by a sentiment that hints at vexing, “nobody reads” Writing as an industry is down.

yeah I added a couple examples of in-betweeners. Feb 2002 10" in 3.5 hours along the Pike E of ORH and throughout Boston proper, from a flat vort max rippling through. It was so flat that there was but a west wind while it was happening. Forced NWS to go from a partly sunny with flurries forecast to a Winter Storm warning cut-in now-cast adjustment in a scrambling media effort. That's definitively showing that timing crucial variables can generate fun stuff and not be well modeled. Then there was Dec 23 1997 ...one of my favorites. It's close to my heart because I was interning with Harvey Leonard that semester, and I remember telling him the day before that I was suspicious about the setup. The ( then ) ETA FOUS grid, ( a dead art form) had a vertical profile over Logan something like +2|+1|-3 ... which corresponds to 34.5 F at 980 mb, 33 F at 900 mb, at 27 at 800. The VV column was like +22 ... whaa Uh, that's a pig ton of implied upward motion. Underneath which it was dropping over a half inch of QPF. All rain didn't add up in my mind. Should have no problem having fall rates of snow over come that gossamer lower warmth. Yet, NWS was forecasting cold rain inside of 128, with 1-3" of wet glop in the Worcester Hills. At a larger synopsis, there was a small but important +PP sitting over N Maine while this event was approaching in the guidance - this was showing up as damming in the surface pressure contours. I told him more snow. So Acton Ma, and I awoke around 7:30 or 8 am to slate gray blue tinted light and flurries at 19 F... umm. What happened was it remained like James Webb Telescope clear until about 5:15. This allowed the region to radiate with exquisite proficiency, generating in situ pasty cold - probably deeper than machine or man anticipated. Then, just before dawn, the cirrostratus leaf edge abruptly advanced over and cold capped. 800 mb ( mind you ) was already less than 0C, and there we were; we had an integrated gelid thermal profile with no way to switch the column. I set my coffee down, most curious what the radar must be showing, but just then my primitive Captain Kirk flip phone captured my attention, "You have 14 new messages". It was this guy I knew that worked at Aldin Electronics( long defunct ) - he was in the EPERB department, which was a weather monitoring tech for marine. First and foremost, he and I were in a dead heat for weather's dweebiest contest and the mother fucker beat me to it. At his urgency I opened the radar and it was 60 dbz returns over an area twice the size of fuckum Rhode Island over eastern CT up to the Pike. That globular region was surrounded by 30 to 50s. Yellows and fiery oranges you'd see in Great Plains MCCs. The deep green leading edge was just then arriving overhead. "OH shit!" I leaped to my feet and rush to the window; the flurries abruptly had indeed become steady snow. Tiny little uniform aggregates reducing the visibility abruptly. "That isn't just bright banding or sleet", I thought. "Oh my god" An hour later, visibility was 0 not 1000 feet where ASOS might only say so. It was 0 Could not see the tree a mere 40 feet outside the window into the front yard. So okay ...maybe visibility was technically 20 feet. Beyond that short scale the air was just a steely abyss. I saw 7" fall in a single hour in that as the thunderstorm colored rad blob moved over head. And the snow texture never deviated. The temperature did rise over the course of the event but never rose above 27. A 16.5", most of which fell in 4 hours, locked down two days before Xmas. Yeah, we pulled a white one that year! Straight down. No wind. So dense that there was no sound except the gritty crumbling of tiny aggregates shattering down your shoulders, in 0 visibility. I'd never seen anything like that. It was unique. I've seen 0 or close to 0 visibility on several occasions. Wind was usually a part of those. This had nothing but a single expression: choke snow fall rates. You know ... we have this expression in our vernacular, "positive bust" These, like the February 2002 one at the intro, and this one, they are too extreme for that. It's probably more apt to say they were "blind busts" as in... no fuckin' clue ahead of time. This particular one, Dec 23 1997, actually dumped 23" in N. Middlesex Co, also ... all of which occurred in 4-6 hours. Usually as a weather dweeb ...I would have been put off by the notion that I missed the max, but given to shear specter in surreal fuck-up for better forecasting ...I was just too happy to notice.

Yeah maybe. It's a tweener system. It's in between teleconnectors, wedged in that timing between more major or obvious signals. If it is even real, confidence will come down to handling the daily noise. I mean, when it is resulting/connected to larger mass field change, confidence in actually having 'something' on the charts can be assessed at longer leads... But that thing's pretty invisible to the indices. Tweeners are real though. They can sting. "Little critters that bite" are tweeners. Or like the 1997 Dec 23 snow bomb storm was a tweener. I saw 16" from that one.

You know ... speaking of diatribes ( lol ) ... wrote this paragraph in that missive, "At this stage of our species evolution we are brilliant enough to suspect if not outright predict calamity, yet too stupid to believe those visions ... Immediate gratifications and/or preexisting interests that have to be suspended in lieu of what those visions might suggest, becomes a conflict that won't be resolved until people see the death, and feel the pain." and it's too generalized. What's really going on is that a tiny fraction of living humans are brilliant enough to suspect if not outright predict calamity, but they cannot effect change because they are limited by the insurmountable masses of population that are too stupid to believe those visions ... There is a pyramid ignoramus dilemma. It's always been a problem for science that a single person .. or small constituency, discovers something huge, capable of truly revolutionizing an understanding of reality - necessarily so if we are all to be 'real' - but they are at the tip founded upon generations of tradition and functioning, unwitting false belief systems.

You're both right... The biggest problem in humanity isn't technology. The technology is within reach. There needs to be a motivating "response mechanism." Humans won't sense that urgency until they see death and feel pain. That simple. Unfortunately, CC is too silent, too invisible to the everyday experience. That is really the biggest hurdle is a biological limitation. CC doesn't directly appeal to the nature-created and evolved fear and response mechanisms. Not enough, anyway ... give it some time, 10 30 40 years and it'll cook up some means to do so. Changes in attitude comes from an instilling sense of urgency ... that is what is needed. CC necessarily must become the metaphoric gun pressed up against the humanity temple. "do this or trigger gets pulled" no interference to that objective. That's what will motivate the true and ubiquitous revolution toward green technologies. Until that happens, human beings are too stupid. At this stage of our species evolution we are brilliant enough to suspect if not outright predict calamity, yet too stupid to believe those visions ... Immediate gratifications and/or preexisting interests that have to be suspended in lieu of what those visions might suggest, becomes a conflict that won't be resolved until people see the death, and feel the pain. That is stupid. Humans won't sense that urgency until they see death and feel pain in a cause-and-effect connection to CC. It's that simple. We write these diatribes but we're just ping ponging the same message back and forth, semantically redrawing but the picture we create doesn't change; it comes off as dystopian movie, not what people see out their windows when it is 77 F in May with blue sky light wind and the smell of lilacs. But, there are already proven means by physics. Proven to be plausible, if not demonstrated to work in the lab. The technology exists and is within reach. My personal position on this is that the campaign needs to be less like a campaign, and more like strategy to get humanity directly connected to the perils of CC in that personal scary way.

Ironically, there’s an expression for that ”cop out”

Starting to suspect I should have gone with greater confidence than low back whence. heh

yeah, i posted about this over int the novie thread just this morning, too.

expanding this ( humorously ) further ... a lot of seasonal forecasters using ENSO in sale and promotion pitches lending to d-drip readers purchasing, and costing them "a lot of emotional money", too. LOL

I will say one thing in defense of the NAO ... it's more important for NW Europe.

Adding to the bold ... RONI studies, which are hugely necessary and thank god imho, there has to be revamp in correlations - or evolution .. maybe not complete overhaul. I remember writing posts suggesting something like a RONI was needed, jesus .. 15 years ago? In the end days of Eastern, that the ENSO cannot mean the same thing when the Hadely Cell is expanded. Most spurned the notion ... typical. There may have, and probably was, already research going on about the HC expansion ... but I hypothesized that on my own decades ago. It started in 1998 for me actually, at the tail end of that super nova El Nino ...when I noticed ( and came up with the "Miami Rule" ) that the heights over the Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic were failing to recede as far in the winters. It's subtle... like 3 to 5 measly hgh contours goes under the radar. But, that means the flow is compressing whenever troughs press east across the continent. That compression means higher geostrophic base wind velocity and guess what ...that's been verified(ing) ever since. And it's gotten worse. This is not merely ENSO...as it is observed regardless of cool and warm phases. It occurred to me that those large scale mechanical balances were possibly overwhelming ENSO forcing... That's gotten more obvious since. Some of these ENSOs are not registering nearly as obviously as they used to around the common climo expectation regions where it was known to do so in the past. The boa constrictor of CC.

yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them. it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century... that no one really bothered to actually intimately understand. then, fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing. i blame them for graphics shock and wooing people with it. like an amazing thing "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation" zomb! but even Heather Archembault's statistical review 30 years ago said that it was weakly correlated. in reality, few understood(stand) it. there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) circumstance when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means. and it is different for each, D.C., Boston, and Caribou. it's a moving parts access. it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - for this context, your heart. it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it. but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e. all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference. what you're saying above? that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference. sorry just venting

Large scale changes in the circulation mode of the Pacific are emerging in both the operational prediction methods, and experimentals. It is way out there in time. We won't get too crazy. That does imply standard challenges to confidence, but relative to typical predictive skill at extended leads for pattern evolution, this is above normal. There are compelling signals nearing and post TG. Those go beyond just numerical indexes, too. They're related to zonal wind structural collapse at very high altitudes ( around 60 N) over Siberia, unzipping around globe toward the the Alaskan sector. That can be associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. However ... I suspect what is happening in the guidance is the other way around. An exceptionally loud upper level ridge signal may be emerging in time. These big-time N-NE Pacific ridge blossoms can lift heights and ultimately the jet latitude S far N, forcing the mean polar vortex to 'kidney bean' around. The model zonal wind collapse is the top of ridge - think of it like a stationary cap cloud over a mountain top... it exposes how the wind bumps around the obstacle beneath quite high. Interestingly, it can be a prelude to an SSW too - that's a longer discussion but I suspect that is worth watching for (SSW) later in December. Meanwhile, all three, EPS/GEFS/CEFS ensemble systems are drilling both the West Pacific and East Pacific Oscillation indexes negative on and after Thanks Giggedy. This is also nicely painted in the spatial synoptic charts. They are all clearly reconstructing the Pacific; there is even evidence of an HC recession, with lowering heights beneath 40 N between Japan and N of Hawaii. That's a regression in low latitudes that would typically herald a ridge response over the NE Pacific and Alaska. Those latter telecons and synoptic arguments are perfectly timed. SO, there are multiple methodology converging on a signal for Pacific changes, changes which btw are canonical preludes to continental cold loading. We may also have to contend ( ha, "contend" - some people want it ) with a warm up E of 100W across the continent for an interval as this is all beginning. The NAO probably loses the non-linear support for it's existence and starts to disappear as these aforementioned changes are emerging.

It was definitely more vivid here with unaided eye than it was back in May, viewing this from the same vantage point in both incidences with the same light obstruction Light pollution is a factor folks. I’m sure you all know this but just in case.

Just had a huge plume of auburn glow right next to goblin green, much more vivid and obvious to the unaided eye than what we had last May. In fact, I was seeing it right through street lights.

that looks like Buzzard's Bay is sending a local le snow band across New Bedford.

Same here... first frozen was last week on Nov 6 with those graupel showers. today there are wind sent single flakes ... really sparse but they are there if one is nerdy enough to study the air. ha

Fwiw - the models have been attenuating the cold air mass all along, showing rising thickness en masse within the trough for days of guidance cycles. That may not be much consolation reading that. I know. This whole trough and cold snap ( primarily west of our longitude) was originally modeled by the GFS about 8 or 9 days ago to generate an impressive coastal with implications from N-PA to interior SNE. By D6 the guidance went away from that idea. The trough morphed into more of a meridian type with EC parallel flow. In fact, over these last 6 days there's been very good model performance overall for poorly consolidated low turning up through PA into eastern Ontario. Can't say the Euro or the GGEM were much different - they seemed to get on that same page a while ago, too. From my perspective, the models are having trouble with the idiosyncratic -NAO ... gee what's new. But back some 2.5 weeks ago the long range numerical outlooks showed a collapsing index in the NAO. That actually verified ... the index numbers are in fact negative and have been. What's fascinating is that synoptic layout is not representing that exertion ... sometimes that happens, though rarer. As it were, the cyclone still turned left prior to 90 W and ended up NY state - in other words, despite -2 SD NAO in the derivatives, the former behavior was really more nuetral NAO like. It all shows how difficult the NAO is to work with. The PNA was left to it's one devices ... and the trough amplifies too early/maximizes west. That idea of commitment to a coastal made more sense relative to the numerology back whence. This "could" have been the season's first synoptic run in. +1 SD PNA with a failing western exerted -NAO? If I were seeing that index outlook from 12 days ago I'd be just as inclined to watching the coastal storm routes for eventual operational emergence. Just the way it goes. You know, we've often reminded folks that all these teleconnectors, air, sea and combinations therein and et al, they are never 1::1. There's always exceptions. Just be glad it happened now, prior to thanks giggedy, when there's still 4 some odd month's worth of other scenarios for the atmosphere to anti-correlate new and exciting ways to tune up winter enthusiast's dignities like a chef with a steak hammer... Anyway, failed humor aside ... it helps to have some explanation. Not to be high handed or anything but ... heh, I honestly walked away from this whole synoptic era pretty early in the game, as I could see this unfolding like 5 days ago. I've seen this before when the indexes may derive positive or negative field values despite the behavior not being perfectly aligned - it's rare ... but if there is going to be a time of the year where that is more likely to anti-correlate, its at this time of year and sometimes in April

Winter 2025-2025 ....? What's the 2026 half lookin' like lol

26,000 tons of iron ore Tropospheric fold whoops

Yeah, I saw something related to that ^ last week. A paper discussing the pivot point as being weaker than previously thought.

Can't say I actually disagree here ... whether this chart above actually occurs in reality, the time frame in question is vulnerable to early season winter expression. This has been very consistent in the numerical teleconnectors, with a lowering -(AO/NAO). The AO and NAO share domain space; they are not exactly collocated. The NAO appears to be weighting the AO down when looking at the different ensembles spatial depictions of the H500 hgt anomalies, the expression of which are also setting up over the western limb ( E/NE Canada/ Baffin Island/ D. Straight ...etc) of the NAO domain. The cyclone genesis/track correlation for that type is S of of. The problems are the notoriously poor handling of the NAO in terms of spatial layout nuances and amplitude. It makes it less useful as a forecast planning tool as say the PNA, which given to it's massive size, tends to be change slower, making it more reliable ( bigger objects taking longer to change and so forth ) Lot of concepts to juggle here ...I know. The operational runs have been fiddling with the notion of above ... hinting in then abandoning, then back in with it... fits that notoriety of being an unruly index. But, so long as the signal is there in both numerical and synoptical presentation, the probability for a cold system type during that period is > than daily climatology.