Typhoon Tip

sort of a secondary statistical remarkable nature here in that since these records in some cases are back-to-back consecutive days warmer than the prior record means that the aggregate exposure of this is unique. It'll make the integrated heat wave energy probably a GOAT

Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe This is somewhat odd

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ-BVyWRCWR/?igsh=MWdyeHVhZ3BjczRueg== LOL

models doing manufacturing physical reasons to shunt tho -

mm.. I think the 12z GFS is on crack with that west atl cut-off out of now where like that. 00z CMC was an outlier with a sharply back calving trough too, so we'll have to see. we were slated for a 2 days of significant heat until this run, tho. Euro's never been on board. Looks like this trying to miss NE a least excuse imaginable. Again...while the rest of the world broils to 2nd place i hottest ever. Wonder when cold enthusiasts around here will stop getting jerked off

By some small added amount... (if otherwise determined less significant, notwithstanding) this heat wave in N-W Europe is plausibly made fractionally worse by the fact that it's straddling the Solstice. The idea being obvious, the sun surround this week to 10 days perennially reaches it's most intensity relative to all N. Hemispheric latitudes. July heat waves are within the solar Max period of the year, ~ May 10 to August 10... Not sure if this is a threshold argument, to be fair. Like it doesn't matter for solar flux variances when above a certain value, as long as the region is above that seasonal value, the heat response is the same. I'm not sure that makes physical sense because you are either dumping more, or less actual solar radiation into the system - The other complexity is 'prompting' overlapping with circulation modes of mid summer that are concurrent by July 20th.. Prompting comes from a kind of "non-Markovian" aspect of the hemisphere (Non-Markovian refers to systems where the future state depends not only on the current state but also on past states, indicating the presence of memory effects in the dynamics of the system... ) So, that kind of trades off a slightly lowering solar rad count for the fact that the system is bias to get back to warmer states. The circulation mode addition is that the normal seasonal expansion of the HC and polarward retreat of the westerlies --> the apex in seasonal-climate for heat reaching it's farthest N latitudes. If 1 and 2 are constructively interfering ... it may be worth it to take a linear look at the statistics over the years, and see if there is a tendency to heat repeating when May/June are significantly above average. That's the science approach... intuitively? mmm we're doing that ( plausibly) when holistically ...the world is constructively interfering with any excuse to be warm at all. All of which begins to fade off circa mid August. At which time solar dimming becomes significant enough that it just doesn't add as much, or enough to recover a hot hemisphere - prompting can't actually do it alone, and ambient troposphere begins to shrink (albeit less coherently at first) from losing diurnal thermal pressure. So a short version take away... You know, I can already see that D4 the the heat has relaxed due to downward/relaxation in the present circulation mode from the middle Atlantic Basic to Scandinavia. However, all the ensemble main sources, EPS/GEFS/GEPS are more and less coherently already showing by 200 hours that a new ridge may be formulating W of the Iberian Peninsula. That essence tends to presage a correction as the times near to go ahead and balloon that feature N-E to engulf as far N as the lower B.I region ... perhaps a resurgence is in the making.

Yeah same here

heh ..maybe we will get some brightening sooner than thought? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined seems to be collapsing S while thinning

Yeah. that whole monitoring system is both needed, but is also in need (imho) of some sort of reevaluation of technique. I took a deeper dive and read 'how' they come up with it a while ago. It's a combination of empirically derived, plus human perpsective. If I recall right it's 3 blended aspects: 2-layer time -dependent of deeper layer vs surface recency, then opinionated by human Climo and Mets. It 'sounds' good on paper that way, but mmm When wells are supplying, area res are 80+ if not topped, and rivers a meandering just fine, something seems off with all that orange.

Other possibility around then is MCS given those looks. That seems like a slam dunk consideration. You know ...even if we don't get inside the DOME dome dome, the period of time will quite likely average AN

Wait, that seems like a decent dose/time there. which way is your sarcasm pointing ? 1.3" for the 2-day total here. Looks on rad like we're about to go languid mist from here on out N-W of ORH-BOS. Might clear at 5 o'clock ? The NAM nailed this thing from about 30 hours out. The Globals might have been a little rich on QPF? not totally sure there. General audience: Ensembles look very close to a major heat headline-able event from ~ D8+ thru model fuzziness. This was a vague signal some 10 days ago, way out along the emergent modeling horizon. It has since been inconsistently showing up and fading ... something like a 1.3 steps ahead by 1.10 steps back... but slowly gaining coherence. This overnight looks 70-ish percent confidence for a N/A mid latitude heat dome with less certainty whether it gets in here. If so, it would be over the top - the ridge axis being 90-ish W instructs the NW delivery. Which looks plausible in the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFS and GEP. The GEPs in fact looked quite fantastic/best for purer heat delivery around D9, as it was an over top delivery that then morphs into this, So the uncertainty with all this is the operational versions are being cute with convective shrapnel if not meso-beta scale synoptic waves ejecting out of the trough in the west, racing over the ridge top and probably sending outflow this and general warmth denting that, and seeing as we're at the eastern fragile end of that wave-space/curvature field, I'd go ahead a call that the operational models engineering any means plausible to physics to stop a heat wave signal from actually taking place LOL. seems like that some times. Here are the EPS/GEFs ensembles in the meantime, for D9-ish

Enabling America https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ4fnMWsA9k/?igsh=MTdudWJkZWQ3NTFjZA==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ258yBJQ6R/?igsh=MTBpeDNpb3doajd2Zg==

Euro's just unbearable. Anything imaginable to stop heat getting in New England, at the end of this rendition used a closed low at 590 heights I'm not saying I want it hot per se but jesus with that

Approaching 600 dm non-hydrostats is nuts since the shit version of the GFS in 2017 was retired...

Looks like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike. Nothing ridic. Beneficial. ...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking

Yo Don... something to maybe keep an eye on. The longer range ensembles from all, EPS/GEPS/GEFS are doing something interesting. First, a strong -PNA wave function sweeps the continent. An ~ 90W ridge balloons. However, just when the heat is poised to move in here, we either only get day or so, or perhaps a failure/ shunt entirely. The reason is the total scaffolding suddenly, rather abruptly ( suspicious, more below) en mass the fields roll back out W. Not clear why that is happening and it is suss, but that reposition to the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead would make Europe seem a like a mild day to the Inuit. Talking 120+ to perhaps the big 1 3 0s Hell hath no fury should a Sonoran Heat Release ever actually happen. About that... not sure it will. The hemisphere has been persistent really since last summer. Year's worth or more ( frankly) and counting. Hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite every month at a Global empirical result being 1, 2 or 3 warmest since thermometers were invented. Right now, currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June; which is likely end in 2nd or even vying for 1st. This looking back along this behavior, it's about a .75 to .12 C gain to loss ratio/behavior, so granted, I'm only roughing a linear extrapolation; if so the abv slope figures for about 16.8 by the end these next 9 days but we'll see.... One thing I'm noticing about that retro/heat rollback west, however... It looks too sudden, at too large of a scale. The entire mass of the planet won't do this typically. It seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into base-line above average everywhere ... Odd. that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

Yeah, the ensembles from all three are doing that... Just when the heat is poised to move in, we either only get day or so or it may even shunt entirely because the total scaffolding rolls back out of no where. 129.34 F throughout the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead ( if that does that, they're doomed. Europe will seem a like a mild day to the Inuit) Hell hath no fury should a release ever actually happen after that but as you say...it seems the hemisphere is hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June, and likely to be end in 2nd/vying for 1st. You you ... I don't think I've seen a legit Sonoran Heat Release in years at this point because of this weirdness. Puzzling. One thing I'm noticing about that retro tho... it seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into a base-line above average everywhere ... It's like an exaggerated PNAP is how that is expressing over N/A. But that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

I've seen this so many times this spring into early summer, this tendency for front side cirrus/cloud debris to erode back west, as the total miasma is attempting to move in from the eastern Lakes/N OV. We steal front side decent days and I suspect some QPF error occurring because this drying may not be well handled - speculation on that idea. In any case, it's endemic of some sort of vestigial if not outright troughing in the Maritime of Canada. I say "vestigial" because it's not abundantly clear why that is doing that. So perhaps something lingers that's less coherent. The NAO is actually neutral when this has been happening - either way... not obviously negative in the charts, either. It's like there's some sort of hybrid or very week -NAO that is below the threshold of numerical detection in the EOF. Tempted to say "non-linearity" ... that's when there's emergent forcing where the why-for isn't very readily - if at all - coherent to the observer. Complex. Meanwhile, W and NW Europe is being punished and persecuted by a Hadean heat wave after heat wave. In classical telecon methodology/correlative spatial relationship ... western Europe is positive correlated to eastern N/A mid latitudes. This has been failing miserably. This isn't first spring and summer over the recent 10 years whence I observed this apparent statistical oddity. I dunno... maybe it's a related thing. Maybe something of a local decadal odd-ball fractal. But we're supposed to be hotter than we have been.

Signals getting stronger for a significant heat dome D8-11

Lot of crispy tcu going up. Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon. Fun day

It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ... It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops. Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall.

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon. That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus. Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal. If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism. The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak. wah waahhh. GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light. One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement. Expecting some variability in results. Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources. However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression. Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.

Like the 06z NAM ?