Typhoon Tip

this was explained over two days, ad nauseam ... but, the audience just sits in wait with elastic strain for the first reason ( in this case ... HREF driven knee jerk upgrades) to suspend all constraint. Anything to load up the dopa syringe, at least excuse imagined LOL

How often do you see supercell embedded squall lines along 40 N latitude after Xmas..

I agree... but the "Pope's" caveats, albeit a bit salty and mean sounding ( haha ) are unfortunately with merit. Truth is, pattern structure is only A B comes when we start to see how the dailies start arriving and fit into it. Is it going to be a 'warm variant', or is there cold available... Cold when counts... etc. Yes, climo ... but ( and I have no compunctions in admitting this - ) climo is fucked now in mid winters. That much is just true whether anyone else admits and/or has a problem with that or not. That's the beauty of actual statistics, and, science that is backed by the actual statistics: it's true whether one is in the conversation or not.

and I tried to keep that brief! LOL Btw, H.A. are initials. Heather Archembault released a Master's thesis back in the early 1990s that discussed the restoring of +PNA lending to enhancing precipitation over eastern North America.

I do wonder ... but, in the spirit of the Holiday and giving I'm restraining myself a bit. LOL I mean, when I look the ending frames of the ens means it's an odd sort of appeal. Almost alike a warm +PNA with these non-hydrostats not indicating any/very little negative anomaly over the continent, despite a +PNA curvi-linear footprint. This is the end of the GEFs but the EPS and GEPs have/are in the same general attitude. In the spirit of fairness... the pattern change across the hemisphere is much, much higher confidence than anything specific in terms of events that come because of it. In addition to that, I've been noticing for the past several year's worth of seasons, whenever the mode is definitely cold enough ... it's too compressed. When the flow relaxes such that there is less overall negative interference, it's too warm. It's been hard to achieve that middle range in there when there's conserved kinematics in the S/W scale, while being cold enough. ...for whatever reason, notwithstanding It doesn't mean it's impossible but it's been a very real observation, a leitmotif. So we'll see where this goes. The flow is certainly relaxing out there... less compression. More conserved in the S/W scale... there are no guarantees the cold provision will be in play.

I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event That's going to be an H.A. implication ( I suspect ...) as nearing the 5th, all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific. The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses, like on a temporal dime when considering planetary wave distribution. Really fast... intra-weekly time scale. If that happens - first of all - that's likely to cause increased model performance problems. Furthermore, the implications of sending a such a violent signal down stream, the western N/A ridge will be in a period whence the 'correction vector' will be pointed toward more amplitude - hint, I think more than is currently in the cinemas. It's a wave # number/distribution argument. When you supplant the regions N of HA with as much total height anomaly reversal (lowering in this case) like these charts below are showing ( using the GEPs but they are all doing it ), there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America... More than 50% ...closer to 80% of this mass field alteration takes place in < 5 days. I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A. And by that, more amplitude is actually favored. When I say correction vector that's just an expression I use to mean corrections that are inevitable in the guidance will likely lean in a given direction... That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.

satisfied with WWA ... just the grease factor is enough to send SUVs pirouetting down highways while the entitled arrogance at the wheel is all confused how their assumption-mobile is doing that. I seriously saw this once. Maybe some kind of overpass web-cam situated overlooking stretch of Dallas highway ... with an assortment of SUVs parked at angles in the median and shoulder, while egular sedans at least limped slowly through in curiosity before going about their way. Next SUV comes into the frame spinning around ...smash! Next Toyota Corrola slips through the scene ... This went until the video clip ended where SUVs blithely spun out of control through and/or into the carnage, while the supposedly less safer, materialistically humbler types, traversed the icy risk like a cat tip-toes along a narrow fence line - even if a paw slipped a little, they regrouped and spanned the distance unscathed. One of my favorite things in life LOL is watching presumptions fail I never got a full explanation but ...it seems to me, 3.5 ton 60k SUVs might be overrated in popularity

I'm telling you the synoptic limitations that are in the actual models. The interpretation after the fact, not sure where this 'I gotta bad feeling ...' trope is necessitated from. Using your worlds, we can't even support the doom interpretation: 'even if 50%' ...well, 50% of what. .9 accretion? that's arithmetically only .45, less than standard warning ice. Ice "storms" don't typically manifest the way this is modeled for a reason. The event timing is too fast. Falls rates may be moderate, and accretion efficient for a time, but it's moving off way, waaay faster than climo icestorm typology. Yeah, 2007 ... but that was a unique situation, and it was also longer than this will be, too. As icing sets up, it release latent heat of phase change; there need be a constant lower DP source to offset this physical process of fixing. There is no source for that. EDIT, ah, I just saw you responded.

No need to... the cold you are referring is particularly low level, and not substantive in the mass loading into this system's preceding environment. The "real" synoptic cold is still low ... 22-ish with DPs of 10 or so, but with such limited +PP ( positive pressure pattern (high pressure) ) situated N, a 20 to 25 kt sustained 925 mb low arriving flow will change the setting very quickly. These metrical limitations on this system are not going anywhere. They are a predicament/detriment to this system's ability to maintain froze or freezing profiles. Lemme tell you something ... in late January 1994, we awoke one faithful morning to Winter Weather Advisory headlines in place, a temperature of 9 F on the weather lab's tele, and periodic flurries/grits coming down in the dim blue light of dawn throughout the Merrimack Valley. Deep winter was in place. By noon, sleet pellets had broken out, there was a south breeze, and the temperature had risen to 23 or so... By 3 pm, it was 31 F with steady freezing rain. By 6pm, it was 53 F with wildly swaying tree tops, and ice fog rolling off the snow pack and piles. By 9pm, it was 61 F with 55 mph gusts. Student around the campus had spilled into the commons and down town streets of Lowell's pubs, in short sleeve shirts that seemed to finalize a defiant mockery of winter... 9 to 61, in 12 hours. All because a cutter went through BUF-ish, and had no antecedent +PP to protect from the arriving WCB ( warm conveyor belt ) -related wind field. Now, this situation doesn't have a 65 kt 920 mb jet core fire hosing at it...no. But, the 40 kts with no leading surface high is going to still reverse the tables and do it probably at a speed that comes to some surprise to people, even in the valleys.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ... I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ...aka advisory should do it.. I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

probably different reasoning vectors converging on the same idea... Breakdown of the Pac and introduction of +PNA is an H.A. signal in the gross sense but we're seeing it already in ensemble clusters The EPS with an impressive spread at 240+ hours is getting above the 95th %tile for this long of a lead. The GEFs still lag tho

Not speaking with confidence to any snow this that or the other ... but a significant event, Jan 6-7-8, has legs.

Huh? welcome to the internet, I guess. wtf

And note the complete disappearance of the erstwhile N. Pac. .... emerging +PNA/W. N/A low amplitude height response; may in fact be underdone as this is still an emerging signal. I suspect that to be case.

The indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation discussed in the ending pages of the prior monthly thread In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s). Doesn't mean something can't break favorably prior to but from a holistic/all-inclusive field application the front and end of that time range above is the still blurry focus - which means we are free to move it some if needed. I'm not sure about events within the first week itself... That's a modulation time and yes ... events tend to happen when there's big mass-field modulations, but in this case it's gradual improvement of probability from the 1st to 7th ( as in lower to higher). It's almost like the previous pattern resists but then snaps all at once along that range. We'll see how it goes Beyond that's the entry into the weeklies which I find are less useful

the indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s)

Such high ratios, high stack efficiently

The main event! Radar vs the models

One implicating of losing the -EPO is the relaxation in the flow that takes place down stream over the continent. There's still plenty of cold air around... don't worry. But the upshot is that the gradient slacks off, and that allows the kinematics to conserve at the S/W scale. Right away, the Euro operational run takes advantage of that - whether it is correct or not ( likely not as is - ), the principle of a better pattern for winter enthusiasts immediately materializes there.

Some pretty heavy rad returns smeared out across S. Ontario pressing into Upstate NY. Likely to be an impressive radar display later on coming into the Capital District/SE NY, and as is typical ... you'll look at that and wonder how the hell could that miss. It would be something if one of these times ...just once, it didn't

The changes are starting out over the vastness of eastern/NE Asia and the relay across the N. arc of the Pacific Basin a bit over a week from now. I discussed this yesterday or the day before whenever that was that the GEPs was first, then joined by the EPS. The wave function producing that resonant -WPO feature out there that has plagued our side of the N. hemisphere is at last depicted to collapse. This is true among all ensemble systems - perhaps more aggressively so in the EPS and Canadian clusters but the GEFs mean's taken some strides. There's a few implications, some speculative... some known - but the caveat being that this all actually takes place. It's really out ~10 day whence the sweep begins... The timing can change, too. By the 300 or so hours out into the temporal range there is an abrupt reversal of the height anomaly distribution over the N. arc up there. Below is the EPS example. Change are coming ... Some very early indicators are +PNA, hinted already above with at least a return of the perennial W. N/A bulge over the Rockies. It's all very primitive.

Hmm a lot of "users" in this "psychotropic crack-house" are not constrained by negations such as the bold ^ ... because it gets in the way of their high. LOL Seriously ... if there were more willingness to objectivity, sans the most jerked off solution, that obvious and true aspect about the NAM would be elaborated upon by more people that just you and I and one or two randoms. But that's not what this engagement's all about.

You might be in luck … Major guard change signaled in the extended GEPS with coherent collapse of that remarkably persistent and intense -WPO, now being joined by the extended EPS. GEFs lag but I suspect it’s a matter of time …~ 10th+ of Jan This will send the roulette wheel for a turn … at least introducing footprints less neg interfering with the +PNA hemisphere … sorely lacking so far this cold season with that erstwhile signal - other than unstable quickly transient moments. 30th is a good example of this … That -WPO is an unusual/historic scenario and its sending odd wave signatures radically down stream. Need to get this inside of day 10 first

The track on this deal is as set as it can be. Variances that occur are within noise/acceptable error and not really predetermined It's the amplitude and QPF verification that is in question