Typhoon Tip

yeah... been awhile since we've seen a 2" basin wide rain event into a foot of dying snow

I have... By Euro I had 'Euro product suite' in mind.

I've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring. The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold. The index/numerics of either ensemble means don't statistically support what the operational Euros have been trying to sell. Just cautioning folks... prepare to be disappointed. The upshot? if you are not, then there was no risk. it's possible the GFS is too warm, but... it has March and improving sun and CC and what have you backing the indexes, all of which suggesting otherwise.

I don't have a problem with Euro's cyclone bombing on the 23rd because it doesn't actually hit anyone. That's the other tenor of the season. Anti-coastal coagulant

Approaching 30" is just a "little" over doing it so you'd be willing to trim that back, huh haha lord

These AI model versions all seem to turn everything in their mid and ext handling into coastal storms regardless I think sticking to overrunning with labored andor failing miller Bs is more likely. Unless indicators change, winter ends not to far after next weekend

mm... What I want is just as irrelevant. Shit I check out every year at this time. It doesn't mean jack. I. hate. winter. after. Feb 15 With the hypocritical exception of something more extraordinary ...which I have elaborated/admitted all this many times in the past am morally fine with it. LOL It is actually entering a frustrating time of year for me. Because objectively, we don't get warmth to stick around here until... 3 weeks in late July for that matter. Aprils? H'ho man. I tell ya, I'm not that far off from my mortgage being paid ... at which time, I will be free to scope out salvation residences during this region's spring climate rectum

Perhaps ... It needs more for that, though. As is...it's a spring warm thrust. The surface synoptics underneath all that, lags a bit yet. It can potentially get there ... it's teetering with ballooning, but out of deference to the incredible persistence of this winter to pick on the eastern mid latitude continent for cold ... who knows. It is normal at this sort of range for the surface to lag response to deeper layer forcing... 570 heights arcing over spatially large progressive ridge during a -PNA has room for warmer temps to en masse expand, so it's not impossible. It's just not there yet. And the -PNA's non-linear constructive interference could help that ridge get bigger and cleaner. Plus, we're after the solar min during seasonality's steepening recovery slope ( in an era of CC just to chap some asses ) As an op ed, I just see this winter's cold journey as being very enabling. We've been in an escaped state of mind provided by a cold predicament that was really ( in true and fair reality) confined specifically to this nodal region of the hemisphere. And I would argue that removing the ~10 day warm anomaly during mid January, likely makes this preordaining cold imby bias that much more obvious on the right side. The larger, longer termed reality isn't that. It is easier to go warmer than it is to go cooler in the world of present era, and to an exceptionally high degree ( pun hopefully annoying -) of confidence, that will be the case for generations to come. Warm signals will tend to out perform the cool ones, if only by decimals over the long haul/arithmetic of climate.. that is clad. That has to be the case. Because, what one wants is irrelevant against objective mathematics. Euphemistically, you can simply say it getswarm at lesser excuse to do so, than cool. So where I am going is... folks might be surprised when the pattern finally and more viscerally does change ... because the other direction could be more than they've been inclined to think.

Using the indices... March begins in balm. Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding. But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska. Cold AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can. We'll see... Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out. I'm ready. I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers? I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports. In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts. The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.

D10 GFS ...this is the truer spring thrust - first of the year.

yeah...so gee, how's one suppose to think otherwise - huh

Yep

Heh... if we can call the 06z GFS' no event at all as colder, I guess nothing happening is technically 0 thermodynamics, so it would philosophically fit that definition haha Not sure I agree with it yet, still lookin'

yeah ...there's a tendency for the models to act like there's a -NAO block when the actuals don't really show a block. It's really interesting. But pinning the p-boundary roughly DTX to BOS is part of that behavior

Near missed bible phase

The deviant in me would love to see this parked on MVY ... just plunk it there and go ahead and call the National Guard

Is the 23-26th one of those climate snow holes ?

I'm also still willing to entertain more ice involved between that and the short order cook round two.

yeah.. not a 'major' event per se, but that is a significant wholesale correction S with this 12z GFS solution toward the end of week compared to prior runs.

Coming around is it -

Wonder if that was global or if it was just local thing

Steve, He said "pre -industral" Your presenting 1991 -2020 Just sayn' ... y'all can clear up the differences in data sets.

I'm just gonna respond once to save Brian's annoyance in going down the CC rabbit hole but ...yeah. I still can't get over 2023. I don't think anyone has, either. It's just been excepted, now faded - probably because no matter who is involved, everyone in modernity is zombifide into a state of no attention span. Ha. But, I think that it was just so overwhelmingly large and spectacular ... it transcends explanation in a lot of ways. Like deer in the headlight ? And thus still vaguely only theoretically explained ( though the goal posts narrowing - ). People just sort of have to go, okay it was what it was. But what that was ...was proof that humanity, despite all conceits and wizardry, doesn't have a f'n clue what exactly can happen in a future with a destabilized climate, ongoing. No one...man to machine and back, anticipated an entire planet, suddenly rising a whole degree C, air and sea. Everywhere, all at once,... unilateral response. To what? only vaguely described with a lot of plausibility ( probably a cocktail of forces working toward a synergistic outcome ..but whatever ) yet nothing discretely causative or definitive, certainly not informative. That right there, that lack of explanation ..., should ( no pun intended ) make people sweat. It should worry anyone with a modicum of intelligence. You don't have to be a climate scientist, physicist, rocket scientist or Gandalf from lord of the rings to admit, if something that grandiose happens without warning, we don't know what we're really dealing with.

yeah, and the other thing, that sun sitting on the top of the planet look up in the arctic is still 30 below 0 F. This is all an integration over relative climatology - it's not linear in dimension. Definitely the kind of post that starts fights among the razor sharp analytic users of social media Americana muah hahahaha Seriously though ... take a region that probably climo-hovers around -20 C in winter, and inject that kind of climo-relative warm anomaly, the difference might just be 20 feet of snow or whatever AI exaggerated depth that was ... just sayn'

mm, the irony is that these cold anomalies, relative to the whole, are happening where the industry is most guilty of anthropomorphic contribution to CC. nothing else - whether we are using our phones or PCs ... so what. No one is judging anyone on either side; the post is purely for the other irony.