Typhoon Tip

Looks like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike. Nothing ridic. Beneficial. ...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking

Yo Don... something to maybe keep an eye on. The longer range ensembles from all, EPS/GEPS/GEFS are doing something interesting. First, a strong -PNA wave function sweeps the continent. An ~ 90W ridge balloons. However, just when the heat is poised to move in here, we either only get day or so, or perhaps a failure/ shunt entirely. The reason is the total scaffolding suddenly, rather abruptly ( suspicious, more below) en mass the fields roll back out W. Not clear why that is happening and it is suss, but that reposition to the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead would make Europe seem a like a mild day to the Inuit. Talking 120+ to perhaps the big 1 3 0s Hell hath no fury should a Sonoran Heat Release ever actually happen. About that... not sure it will. The hemisphere has been persistent really since last summer. Year's worth or more ( frankly) and counting. Hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite every month at a Global empirical result being 1, 2 or 3 warmest since thermometers were invented. Right now, currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June; which is likely end in 2nd or even vying for 1st. This looking back along this behavior, it's about a .75 to .12 C gain to loss ratio/behavior, so granted, I'm only roughing a linear extrapolation; if so the abv slope figures for about 16.8 by the end these next 9 days but we'll see.... One thing I'm noticing about that retro/heat rollback west, however... It looks too sudden, at too large of a scale. The entire mass of the planet won't do this typically. It seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into base-line above average everywhere ... Odd. that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

Yeah, the ensembles from all three are doing that... Just when the heat is poised to move in, we either only get day or so or it may even shunt entirely because the total scaffolding rolls back out of no where. 129.34 F throughout the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead ( if that does that, they're doomed. Europe will seem a like a mild day to the Inuit) Hell hath no fury should a release ever actually happen after that but as you say...it seems the hemisphere is hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June, and likely to be end in 2nd/vying for 1st. You you ... I don't think I've seen a legit Sonoran Heat Release in years at this point because of this weirdness. Puzzling. One thing I'm noticing about that retro tho... it seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into a base-line above average everywhere ... It's like an exaggerated PNAP is how that is expressing over N/A. But that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

I've seen this so many times this spring into early summer, this tendency for front side cirrus/cloud debris to erode back west, as the total miasma is attempting to move in from the eastern Lakes/N OV. We steal front side decent days and I suspect some QPF error occurring because this drying may not be well handled - speculation on that idea. In any case, it's endemic of some sort of vestigial if not outright troughing in the Maritime of Canada. I say "vestigial" because it's not abundantly clear why that is doing that. So perhaps something lingers that's less coherent. The NAO is actually neutral when this has been happening - either way... not obviously negative in the charts, either. It's like there's some sort of hybrid or very week -NAO that is below the threshold of numerical detection in the EOF. Tempted to say "non-linearity" ... that's when there's emergent forcing where the why-for isn't very readily - if at all - coherent to the observer. Complex. Meanwhile, W and NW Europe is being punished and persecuted by a Hadean heat wave after heat wave. In classical telecon methodology/correlative spatial relationship ... western Europe is positive correlated to eastern N/A mid latitudes. This has been failing miserably. This isn't first spring and summer over the recent 10 years whence I observed this apparent statistical oddity. I dunno... maybe it's a related thing. Maybe something of a local decadal odd-ball fractal. But we're supposed to be hotter than we have been.

Signals getting stronger for a significant heat dome D8-11

Lot of crispy tcu going up. Can see your anvil bombs on the N-NW horizon. Fun day

It's interesting how that thing's changed over the week running up to it ... It was originally sort of weird quick coastal ( that looked dubious, admittedly), replete with a burst of NE flow and drilling rains ... Probably 60 F tops. Now, it's more like it's just a humid disjointed morass with less structure overall.

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon. That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus. Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal. If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism. The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak. wah waahhh. GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light. One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement. Expecting some variability in results. Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources. However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression. Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.

Like the 06z NAM ?

man, that's a o.d. of Clonazepam suite of models and indices.

Yeah the GFS is suppressing things. Euro looks like a sneaky small stream responder problem event there.

Line came thru here about 10 min ago ...now light rain entrails. Had a few minutes of 35 mph gusts under a gnarly looking shelf base, then 10 minute of moderate to heavy rain. Not a single lightning flash. Not a single rumble of thunder. Not even in the distance.

Dangerous heat signal on this Euro run... GFS not as aggressive but hints. Granted these are around the 1st of July, so it may just be eye candy for heat enthusiasts

Just got my 80 ... 80/67 rustling breeze with cracker alto strata and a few scud shred moving swiftly underneath. Intervals of sun. Actually feels like an tropical island morning.

This could be fun... we clearly have a warm frontal thrust/wedge now up to EEN and we're opening the skies to sun. Temp popped 4-6F in the last hr west of ORH up through FIT and across my region. 79/67

yeah SPC mentioned 'low top' in their coverage. I suspect they went tor out of respect for the llv jet in the area.

Decent destabilization going on ... 77 to 80 suddenly with 66 dps. Sun splashing and a nice llv S jet wobbling the trees. any thunderstorms rollin into this will be set up with +helicity

T-watch Envious threat primarily N of Weatherwiz

Warm boundary slipping thru now... 75/68 sky light breaks 69/64 under schmutz last hr

There is a 24 hour tele connector that exists because it’s statistically significant that’s all I’m gonna say I honestly don’t need the meteorology lesson

Heh... they did expand the Slght into NE after all

agreed... wild digression ...buuut: all of society is bottle-necking reliance with technology. While doing so, there's no redundancies. There should be back up systems that achieve the same tasks, like in "off" mode, ready to be turned on in the event of calamity. It's getting closer to a one system handling everything. Banking, to heart surgery, to flying airliners, to surfing porn on the web, and everything else that machines civility along, if that one agency goes down, heh... It's too easy to even write that Sci Fi dystopian novel. First, make the entire species slaved to one system, which is eventually either by design or hostility, taken over by a proverbial Skynet type agency ...and well, shit - we've already seen that movie, huh. But anyway, I see this kind of thing all the time. I wish they still would run old systems that worked, but were abandoned because of the evolution of ease and convenience. Like if the NBM future system has an outage... we can still look at the constituent parts.

Yeah.. this is what I was suggesting to you yesterday ... there's a warm boundary that the Euro and GFS are less coherently defining. The NAM on the other hand is kinking the PP enough to suggest a triple point goes underneath Logan. I have seen both scenarios verify in situations like this. I am not presently seeing anything that argues for either. About split.

mm... this doesn't lower the value nor significance of the statistical correlation - which is synoptic/ holistic in scale. Not a discrete convective level/meso analysis/indicator. Which there are no known telecons that can be that predictively discrete. For obvious reasons... The point is that the set ups tend to move that incremental spatial-temporal range in the 24 hour window. Hell, not every +PNA/-NAO creates a winter storm here, either, and that's dealing with scales that are far more obvious to the physics.

in this case, not any specifics, but I’m better than 50/50 that cool ‘potential’ before the end of June, we are in back below normal, is subjected to being modified ….how much so remains to be seen… And that bigger heat’s likely returned by July 1 … which means it could even be earlier