Typhoon Tip

I keep seeing this repeating theme in our monthlies that are above normal. The ballast of the warmth appears to be occurring in fewer days than the mode. The modes are actually showing more days nearer to neutral and/or negative. Below is HFD for March a just one example

Yeah, our prime BD season isn't here yet. we can't blame every NE accelerating wind field on BDs. BD synoptics are pretty specifically defined, and yesterday into today really isn't what that is. There may have been some tendency/shared physical space, as Scott pointed out yesterday, there was some identifiable rad signatures that a BD-line boundary was involved, but the primary facet/influence in this case is a strong N front with a big high building in. You don't have those features with a typical BD. BD's require a s/w moving ESE N of Maine... As it passes, NVA behind creates DVM and this coupled to the colder marine environment underneath and produces a pressure/density discontinuity where more mass is NE of the region E of the Berkshire/White cordilleras. This triggers a vector moving back SW to "fill" that region with the denser/colder air. And it will do so with the ability to snap flags, wave trees around and slam doors shut as Brian mused.... I've seen BDs with very little discernible actual high pressure at the synoptic scale, with 30 kt NE wind bursts kicking up dust before. These are found most so in late April thru early June. Before then, we have more hybrid types like yesterday - which fits the time of year actually. Just a nasty nasty cfront. By the way, ...if you look down at the Del Marva penn and S, it's a BD for them. Now imagine the climate of May around here, we're like they are today

The more I look at this .. I wouldn't trust any warm pattern up our way through at least mid month. Not saying it will be like today - this is something else entirely. There are fewer days out of a year actually this repugnant. This is something uniquely egregious. We could get lucky ... but we can't seem to shake a negative anomaly in the deep troposphere circulation mode wobbling around the Canadian archipelago to D. straight and back. And as that is persistently there, the flow is naturally going to be episodically confluent across S-SE Canada. That's going to generate these high pressures that then suppress the ambient late season polar boundary S ...probably south of climatology at times, too. That PV has been plaguing that region for months, really... As we embark upon the warm season, it's not relenting... not yet anyway. I think until that does we relay on being lucky... Since I live here, and want it to be warm, unfortunately ... that means everyone else that wants it warm will end up UN lucky Probably we'll log another NASA month where relative to everywhere else around, we have a negative offset cooler region over SE Can/NE U.S. when the March numbers are settled.

It's not forecast too but if this were to go over to snow, say ? that's like stepping off the perfect ass vomit because you're getting something back in amazement: 73 yesterday, snow today .. a rare and interesting, thus vaguely redeeming aspect. Hasn't happened yet, just sayn'

Actually, flipping over to IP ... but it's pure IP. No like mangle aggies in there. Clear and round.

Can't call this a GOAT rectal plaque bottom day because we get this once or twice per year around this overrated region. GOAT is a too singular of a distinction. It may in fact be more sufficed to say this isthe GOAT rectal plaque bottom geographical region on Planet Earth, because that would allow perfection of ass vomit more than once. This is that region on a middle Earth D&D map that just says Beware... Yet, civility chose to give this area a try. amazing 34/33 -R

3k NAM and standard NAM are both undermixed/erroneous in the 18 to 22z given those parametric synopsis. No way it's that cold. HRRR looks the same to me. WSW deep layer flow through opening ceilings in warm sector, under 560 dm hydrostatic heights is mid 60 minimum probably skyrocketing into the 70s

oh, interesting. Yeah that is cool when that happens. I'm not in the BD aspect - yet.. but it's in the mail. We're synoptically cooling the last 3 hours or so here, but it's reasonable at the moment. Ha, you know the spring has no interest in actually happening when we're getting flogged by a double-sided marital aid -

not that anyone cares if this is clarified but this isn't a bd front. it's a side/N front, and the wind happens to go NNE to NE to E within 12 hours of that particular kind. the whole synoptics over this next 48 hours is moving incredibly fast, too. Big polar high passes by to the N and moves off in time to heat Friday back up... we literally are moving the dial 40+ from air mass type, not diurnal, as a result impressive

not sure if anyone's mentioned but perhaps it's too obvious and out there already ... 73 --> 34 --> 73 ? really ?

Agreed ... Brian and I have had this discussion in the now distancing past but again, those heat explosions that took place in the Pac NW and London ...SE Asia, step country of the Urals, Moscow and Austrialia ...those were all synergistic events. That's when several factors, not just the synoptic footprint, feed back and the modeling technology just doesn't really do that? SO you end up with product that far surpasses expectation. The closes we've come to seeing that E of the Mississippi Valley and N of the Mason Dixie, in modern era whence these synergistic heat waves became a recurring global phenomenon, is the 2012 heat wave. However, that was restricted to far SW and was squeezed further S and eventually demolished by a massive Derecho/processing event. Simply put, we have not had one here. Despite 102 once in awhile, that's not it. We could possibly argue that the May heat up in Ontario the bled into NNE a couple years around the early 2020s but 90s mmm there was some resonate feedback going on there, but it was mostly just lacking the DP input into those that drove that. It was multi-sourced and "bursting" over modeling either. I've actually begun to suspect that it is harder for this area to achieve the synergy. We just have too many available negative inputs... squeezing our circumstance manifold down to lesser ways to get that to happen - it becomes lower odds.

There we go ... just busted 13 F in the last 25 minutes here.

As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent. Day after day after day ... Nope. There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind. So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights. Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement - I don't wish CC upon the world. But it is unfortunately for the world, real. Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge. We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else! And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count.

Still 45 here ...altho the sun's out. As I predicted ... WPC's razor sharp sfc analyses skill has the warm front retreated safely back N of here despite the fact that 0 home sites and even NWS' own KFIT are all clearly still not in a warm sector ....

For a coffee break...

That's Thur dip shit

It's through NE zones... In fact, it's 53 in Groton and 66 2 mi S of me at the Oxbow ob on Rt 2, span of about 8 mi as the crow flies. ..so it's on my doorstop. 40s in Lowell and Burlington. I think this might be ahead. The GFS insists it moves back temporarily while that low transits CNE tomorrow but...heh.. wouldn't be shocked if the WPC analyzes the charts that way when in reality it's a 47 deg butt poker. 3 km is ugly on Thursday. Jesus... 36 under slate sk is quite the BD ram rodding. B N for Apr 2

12z NAM has achieved the absolute piece of shitness. A rare state of utterly 0 redeeming weather value from afternoon tomorrow until sometimes nearing dawn on Friday.

Probably goes in the april thread but man ... 12z NAM even colder... fronts slips SW of Logan at around 12z tomorrow morning, than it's 33F there by nighttime, per FOUS. Nice 20mph laminar NE soothing nape kissing wind too.

Looks like it’s raining sort of where it needs it most ? relative to drought ballyhoo

Oh I’m sure it’s cruel blue balling … but we dream

Unfortunately ..we gotta get through Thursday first

ho man... 18z Saturday on the 00z Euro

Expect the cooling shits to arrive NNE to SSW by this afternoon starting NE zones. Brian's already pretty well f'ed while Kevin might spare some humanity. Front will wobble around along the Pike tomorrow but climo argues it's correcting S. That's a nasty unwanted polar high moving E out of Ontario spanning mid week... warm enthusiasts might turn to other hobbies until Friday. Models have finally coalesced for a Friday AM scour out. Thursday is faux warmth in that pressure pattern as that's a piping E wind off the SST nadir. Good luck. Probably for Metro west of Boston, even down in CT ... that could be a 25 F day to day temperature change from 18z to 21z, between Thur and Fri

Spring peepers triggered here… Not even a little bit I mean they’re like loud choruses driving down the roads