Typhoon Tip

18z NAM profile is near 90 Saturday BOS SW burbs/metrowest and other usuals.

this is really interesting actually https://phys.org/news/2025-08-temperatures-linked-declining-moods-world.html

Ha... Erin looks on satellite the last hour to be moving due E. Can you imagine if this were 1984? You're all fluffed to the point of bursting over this hurricane set to rocket N in the modeling standard of the day, set to pummel the area ... replete with warnings and fever pitch. Only to have set your coffee down this morning, and turned on the TV to a satellite loop of it moving due E hahaha priceless That's what it was like in the 1980s ... the wah wah waahhhh decade. Winter storms too. At least with this thing y'all mo'fuggahs knew ( though some stubbornly ignored...) 8 days in advance that the pattern was completely a piece of shit.

Nor should anyone ... ... But, if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. There's a risk in reading these cautions in absolute dictation. Becoming is not become. Like I said, none of this forestalls the advent of bomb winter. These teleconnectors are not 1::1 ... never have been. They can't be. There are too many contributing forces, creating a huge polynomial, each one more and then less- so scaling the equations for influence does not result a consistent contribution from their individual parts from year to year. Within that noise, there is tendency, however, during these the last 10 years ( rather consistently...) to be "more noisy" lol for lack of better phrase. I'm aware of situational bias. But I'm considering that there are reasons that support the ongoing disruption/observations therein.

Gee ...any marine taint today ? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The other thing that's irked me about this recent 3 or 4 day cool down is that it's lying? Talk about a faux autumn con -job. I say that because the hydrostatic heights ( thickness) have never fallen below 566 dm along the BUF-BOS latitude. Actually it was true over BTV, too. "deep" in the toposphere. The cool air has been a narrow layer on the bottom - completely belying the true deep layer, positive anomaly ongoing thermodynamic nature of the thing.

heh... great. more subjective word maze popsicle headache. Yeah I dunno. 'for me' I'm okay with deep summer being 83/62. It's not winter. It's not autumn nor spring. It's summer, and above climo for August 20. But again, it's a semantic waste of time. 90/70 is just hot; deep summer needs to be in place, first.

of course that's not intended to mean we can't get a bombed this year either... just sayn'

This stuff is more appealing in a 1992 planetary climate for me. Not so sure I vibe with that now that we've evolved to a 2025 state of global climate affairs. Most of the outlooks and conjectures I've read or heard are clad enough relative to classical modes ( longer termed telecons, air/ocean/land ...etc), but I'm compelled to consider a consistently observing winter circulation modes being unstable, despite those efforts. And thus ...less predictable, more so than usual - higher variance including at times unusually large correction ranges ( warm vs cool ), that for lack of better words, flout the governing/preceding indicators. More occurrences of anti-correlation. This instability was always clearly predicted by climate models and so interesting enough appears to be manifesting... I'm not sure I see a compensating mechanism that caps that manifestation from doing the same thing. I realize I've been sarcastic at times in mockery over having this winter just being like the last 7 or 8 consecutive ones/8 number of years, but there is modicum of valid reason in that humor. Because simply put, the 'disruption' aspects having been getting in the way of all intents and purposes ... with enough consistency and a large enough sample size to dim confidence in the reliance on classical application.

It'll be 83 to 85 with dps ~ 62 tomorrow Saturday and Sunday in the interior away from weakening marine contamination. That actually edges above climo at this time. what do we mean by "deep" ?

Ho, great ... https://phys.org/news/2025-08-ozone-planet-thought.html

The idea of tree and/or vegetation modulation on heat is again water vapor related. There's also a component of straight shade helping to block the sun. These two factors are important in that whole idea. Vegetation "sweats." It's called transpiration when it sources from plants. Water evaporates from that source, and that lowers the temperature. Although that does add water to the atmosphere in the form of vapor, but you'll end up with slightly elevated DPs in the vicinity of vegetation, with slightly lowered temps. As that is ongoing, the cooler resulting air is drawn downward because of course cooler air is denser. This principle is illustrated well in the bottom photo - although I can't attest to those actual numbers, but in so far as getting the point across.. that's the idea there. Contrasting, the upper photo doesn't have this process. This is a local cooling effect, however. The temperatures in those respective schematics are in the micro meteorology. Which, per course ... what one experiences in a city/urban setting on a hot day is in fact within a micro-meteorological realm. That would be neighborhood vs neighborhood... Unless the given cityscape is pervasively and comprehensively forested and so forth, it calls into questions the efficacy of offsetting a UHI effects. The collection of sun-exposed concrete surfaces, such as downtown, parking lots... the edifices of the buildings too, to mention the heat output from industrial scaled AC exhaust. It's a tricky math. Lot of summing multiple separate integrals in that calculus. My personal belief is that the UHI capacity goes up with warming CC, and goes back down with cooling CC. I suspect the growth may not be entirely linear, either ( as in going up together). Because different materials have different storing capacitance ... so that changes the contribution into the "UHI bubble" based on different energy source and sinks. It's a coupling of material sciences, with atmospheric science, which is not likely trivial. But intuitively, doesn't seem like that's a swift calculation to make. Just hypothetically... a sunny day in Phoenix AZ on July 10, 1972 may calculated a UHI factor of some 15F over the surrounding country, but that may be closer to 20F in 2025 given the same initial conditions and sunny day. See, the climate is 1C warmer, but there is a disproportionately larger UHI response.

It's a weak ass PRE if that were the case.

Yeah, I lean away ... but admit to some similarities. I tried to provide a little analysis but just sayn' ... we probably can't positive eliminate it altogether.

It looks like a coincidence to me. The exact machinery for PRE, compared to a flat open fast moving S/W in the field, are different. We have the latter. It is far less clear whether the mechanics of PRE are also embedded in that - if perhaps entangled and not easy to parse out. Can't rule it out. I would suggest from what I'm observing that this rain is being generated by a spat of overrunning pulled into vicinity of a right entrance jet escaping through CNE. This will cause this overrunning band without PRE. But its happenstance with an Erin sitting down there. It may give that allusion. Also, Erin is more than 600 miles away. It's closer to 1000 miles away at this time. Not that precise distance has to be a debate ender... just saying that distance does also stress the notion that PRE is involved here.

It hasn't come down hard via those echoes training down Rt 2 down may way. Not anywhere close to enough to make those modeled/graphic numbers people chose to post I'm up to .19" and looking up stream on rad, this is all over with by 3 or 4 oclock. Maybe .5 total unless this steps up

anyway... the bold is a good question. There's a lot of complexity in there but the simplest explanation is water vapor. When there is more water vapor that has been heated, the total atmosphere holds more energy that way - needs more energy to keep water in gaseous form. That keeps the temperature up at night. However, in the day, it can also hold the temp down some, because it takes more energy to heat WV than dry air. The complexity is the relativity of those two. It's still 100/72 on July 10 in Boston ...and that's enough to roast one's nuts.. but, a profile of 104/66 has about the same thermodynamic quotient. Ha ha ... wasn't intending to be all guilty like. It's really more a frustration pointed at the general circumstance. It's a numbers game. Let's think about this logically for a minute. There are 8+ billion human brains walking the Earth. What are the odds that 100% of them are completely capable of objectively intellectualizing CC, and then responding to it with a cogent sanity that is reflected in their response to it and behaviors after the fact? The answer is 0% .... In other words, there is 0% chance that 100% will get it. So that leaves us in a predicament that some portion of 8+ billion are incapable of getting it. What is that number? If it is even 10 percent, we're still talking 800,000,000+ brains powered by carbon fartin' industrialized environmental destruction. This predisposition leads to reticence to the concepts and acceptance of CC caused by carbon fartin', less likely to react proactively in prevention. And, 800,000,000+ is still enough people that even if the remaining 7+ billion were to completely accept and adapt their technology and principles of living around preventing anthropomorphic GW, we're all still doomed... They are doomed because 800,000,000+ is enough to ensure environmental collapse still takes place in spite of everyone else. It's kind of a scary untenable scenario really.

Completely agree here ... I said this myself yesterday or the day before. Consideration of straight up climatology, we've topped the curve thus we must be descending. You know it's my fault? ha. Seriously though, I'm the one that first coined that expression like 15 years ago ...'summer's back is broken,' and now I hate it. Mainly because its use is abused. Perfect. However, I don't take anything in here 'literally', nothing from the social media-sphere for that matter. Most of the time I pass over it and let it be/choose not to involve in it. There's no one to defend someone in here - no one comes to anyone's rescue. So I'm saying this shit in my own defense: I post vastly more with Meteorological information, and/or attempt substance worth the time ( for some..) in here in general, compared to the amount of ongoing back-and-forth semantic chicanery that wastes it for most... So once in a while, when reading someone pushing across a concept as fact , when it's merely what they want/bias, it's hard to resist responding - if that's a failing, meh. There are far worse representations and examples out there amongst humanity, too many of them. And if for nothing else, it's just fun to shatter illusions. Although, it's probably a delusion to think it's making any difference.

It just gets exhausting trying to explain this to the people that can’t synthesize global perspectives; probably as a native intellectual limitation. Which unfortunately is precisely what is needed if somebody’s going to understand how global warming works Dimes to donuts the majority of the people in the denier frame of mind are narrow perspective types

This is a childish perspective though Meteorology is not relegated to a single regions like that we are not decoupled from the continental circumstance. But in the end, this is all just subjective anyway. If the wind switched southwest, that heat would be available to this region. The back of summer being broken should to me mean is no more heat is available or likely to occur. Neither of those circumstances are true at this time and you know why… Because it’s only August 18.

Not surprised we made the mid 70s today

if that asshole has any proxy in the matter, no one will survive the cold and flu season anyway

I'd like to see less than 3/4ths of the mid latitude continent actually below 90F before I'd declare summer's "back broken" - whatever that purely subjective expression really means.. We had a cool week back in July, too - just bear that in mind.

More drought brings earlier autumn leaf fall, Northern Hemisphere study finds