Typhoon Tip

Granted ...this is the GEFs -derived prognostic NAO curve, and the Euro is not a part of that ensemble system ... Still, these compressed/suppressed/buttfucker issues with soring up the bums of storm enthusiasts circumstances are all remarkably well correlated with this indexes negative phase below - much to the chagrin of what people are wired so deeply they cannot seem to get through to their heads Snark aside, the Euro does seem to a conserving the western limb/-NAO suppressive weight longer than this curve below suggests is should. Not sure what the EPS NAO looks like, but it's probably negative when the Va squish is happening would be my guess. Anyway, if the NAO is relaxing, that system might trend N -

I was too busy this morning but god ... christ am I glad that ...everything there is in weather chartage, did not greet my eyes first thing this morning. Ugly .

We talked about this a bit yesterday ...so what, 5 pages ago? anyway, yeah ...most posters involved in that exchange agreed, me merely "suffer" ( depending on subjective perspective ) through a time that is unrepresentative of that longer termed reality. I also want to point out... last year (and I think a couple of other years since 2020 for that matter) Eurasia over into Russia/Asia itself, went through perhaps counter-intuitive excessively cold periods - if memory serves, they tended be front winter when they occurred, but I'll have to look. It is interesting that despite the global this and that, the empirical/realized data shows that both things are true: The world is both warming in total, while seated within ... there is also gasping cold.

Yeah ... ex GF's heart

The 10th/11th doesn't have sturdy legs under it from the indices, but the 8th does. its interesting.. as obviously the intriguing curvatures are hourglassing the flow more so for that latter of the two. It appears the hemisphere is attempting to slip back into a N. Pac favorable pattern after having relaxed for the last 5 days. I'm seeing the WPO is in -delta. The progs from all major ens systems are almost as low as it was 2 to 3 weeks ago. The EPO appears to be completely restructured into a hefty NVA up there and this seen in the spatial layout of the EPS and all of them really, with high coherence. I showed that chart around mid month above... These don't really correlate well with a +PNA at first, and that does nicely ( statistically) explain why the PNA does goes below neutral later next week after Monday's minoring spike. I think this sets the stage for a very cold 10th to Solstice... When the WPO has a modest negative correlation with the PNA, which connotes -WPO eventually subtends to +PNA given time; to some varying degrees of either. -WPO with a alternating EPO and balancing +PNA intervals is fuck it ...no one's following this. look it's going to be a lot colder between the 10th and the 20something than we were led to think this time last week. snowier too follows

CFS with a Solstice yard sticker ... 971 off Block Island with choke snow CCB and 60 mph gusts Who's with me!

I added to that... some for amusement some of thoughts

This is all likely true in this paper ... but it certainly isn't true this year - for now.. I mean, a persistent snow pack, squalls in the air ... and possible refit event 108 or so hours out in models that have others through the 20th ... to mention, a -20 something anomaly plume here on the doorstep, these are all hallmarks of an above normal winter expression. As an aside, I'm reminded ... I thought back in early September this has a shot at a front loaded winter. Not sure this quite yet qualifies... but at the time I said either that, or a quasi one anyway. I just get the feel that it's done in January this year, though. Flower February? I'm sure I just triggered a salvo of responses, either why that's not true posts, are a bunch of truly intellectually inspiring shit emojis ... but we'll let all that and see what happens in due time.

interesting. the 12z EPS has as far as I can tell, completely evacuated the mid month Rosby rollout/warm up. This mean centered on the 17th ( for ex) bears no signature of that any longer

12z GEFs mean has a higher latitude center jump suggested for the 8th. Much better presentation for something in this window comparing to the 00z. 06z interim run did step wise improve so this is a trend. I don't think the operational run is complete garbage - as I've outlined, there's a +PNA burst, albeit minoring but there nonetheless; so there's a background tendency for more amplitude ( correction vectoring - ). ...Not a major by any means -

I was musing ( if not diabolically hoping LOL ) that these would rake through at about 4:49 PM, followed by a 15F temp crash muah hahahahaha

Here you go Weatherwiz .... we were discussing this squall potential earlier in the week ..well, good call I guess. Them be s-squall warning boxes https://radar.weather.gov/station/kenx/standard

Really that's going to be the challenge ... I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL either way ... but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate. We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours. It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on. But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere. Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ... But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another. We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.

Mmm it matters in shoulder seasons. March bombs for ex definitely benefit from a diabatic heat flux

What’s also interesting about that is that the ensemble derived PNA index progs from all the three majors have +1 to +1.5 burst. It’s really the operational runs that have not been nesting an event in that period of time. It makes me wonder if something might materialize in there with shorter notice - experimental.

I wish. Lol Xmas party with a different sphere

I had NWS’ snow prognostic in mind The results barely made the grade. In principle the snow area was shorted because in the fair sense we’d expect at least some mid ranged results … not just tickling chode hairs to validate a warning The southern region of the warned zones did fail altogether

I can't make this one, Ray - previous plans

Shoulda read, "Here we come a-wassailing OT thread" 'Wicked' was back in late October just sayn' ...heh, come to think of it, we kinda missed the opportunity last month. "Here we go a-gobblin'"

OH I'm a huge believer in non-Markovian memory in the systems of climate. The oceanic-atmospheric coupling is definitely got a memory where ( probably counter to a lot if intuition) the winter's positive(negative) meanders tend to foretell the summer's higher(lower) - this is more so on the positive side in present era, as the background state is a non-linear forcing that boosts the synergistic result in the direction. This is all immensely complex because it's not the Air, vs the Ocean in this sense, but the emergent property of the ocean-atmosphere quasi coupled state. If that emergent property lends to warmth, well? Sometimes the signal is buried in the noise, making all this an extra special kind of scary... Oh, like the whole world surging a whole degree C (2023) out of seemingly nowhere. hmm?

That +PNA is interestingly getting subtly more jacked with passing runs. Much more and we're dealing with bigger cold off-load at continental scales. Euro was very +PNA a week from this weekend. It keeps the total a little less amped in the ridging over the west, otherwise it's probably digging that S/W more ...

If folks wanna muse... check out that 00z CrazyForecastSystem model known as the CFS. There's a high impact coast for the 11th/12th, which is really in all honesty the same 10th/11th period we've been toying with - at this range, even the shitty models will shuffle within spatial-temporal reasonability. Anyway, the Euro has it too but all these guidance types are highly mutable at this range ...goes without sayin'

Lol. Yeah right. Too many lords of flies around here. The problem is people don’t really appreciate insight/foresight and honest intention. Their primary purpose for being in here is an addiction - haha. I little frustration in saying so.. okay, but if the shoe fits? When you don’t fulfill an addiction, you become a crank - that’s how all drug addicts are. You know … withdraw sucks and they come to associate the failed d-drip (when during the cinema period being more important than the storm itself), to whomever it was that actually detected the possibility in the first place - as completely “fair” as that is. I mean the recognition and so forth was/is usually clad and very possible. Not everyone can score though, because we still deal in a chaotic enterprise ...etc etc

Well ...if perhaps only conciliatory, the D10/11 12z GFS offering is definitely intriguing. This 500mb cinema depicts a powerful S/W morphing into negative orientation, going under long island. The surface is odd...with a lot of primary near Buffalo, despite this ominous mechanical appeal above. At this time, however ..there is a hint if not outright zygote low developing near CC. This is odd/idiosyncratic failure to generate a robust development/commitment to a coastal, earlier...and I suspect it is related to the lack of +PP N of the region as this thing above is evolving. We seem to be a lull in b-c gradient ...but, D7 ...that could change. It would not take much, should this amplitude above turn into a confident trend ( so a bit of a caveat emptor ...), to reacquaint the 10th/11th as a period to watch. I realize it is only 7/8 days out but... as we've been warning, this fast flow type can "hide" events and have them rear up in shorter notice.

Thing is ( not to be difficult ...great write up!), I'm not sure it was a poorly modeled warm layer? I mean, maybe it was that the layer was not exposed enough in the products we're allow to see? I'm asking because maybe we can back into an excuse for this. Namely, the modeled PTYPEs were excessively wet as opposed to white. That was a bit of a head-scratch when given the low path was S of LI, while also antecedence was so cold in the interior - and actually the coastal plain wasn't exactly warm, either. In other words, something in the ptype algorithms must have been seeing a phase change from white to wet despite those observations above. I remember remarking the day before that a possible compromise might be a lot of freezing rain in a band between HFD and BED ..etc. Nailed that! well... I don't mean to take credit, it's just that both things could be true. Warm layer we weren't aware, because the products didn't expose, but it may have still been there, while the cold llv was poorly handled by guidance and so icing resulting. I will say, didn't see a lot of ZR in the ptype forecasts. It was a really narrow IP band separate all snow and all rain. Almost no IP actually... That was definitely seemingly off to me anyway - so we're right to question the modeled low level temperature change. But because we were hidden from view of warm layer ( maybe...) that led to thinking more snow. Having said all that, as I remarked in the other thread ...there was also a quasi observable tendency to NOT put qualitative precipitation actually WHERE the soundings supported snow. So where it snowed was under performed. May be a separate issue in error to the above points.