Typhoon Tip

wait, what did i do ? wait first of all, we don't know precisely how ... and by defacto 'what' these AI (apparent marketing gimmicks ) are doing. so how can we be sure about 20 or 30 years ago anyway? that's I pointed this out yesterday.. there's been no prospecti made easy to find - if at all - that answers the questions that everybody should be asking but no one is! jesus... degradation of virtuosity and method on both side. whereby any kind of advantages and disadvantages, circumstantially; basic modeling 101 stuff that has to be considered. confidence intervals... methodologies. nothing. we can't say jack shit about them. I'm hugely displeased at deployment and anyone that uses them .... man, caveat emptor

the old weather channel tower mn boiling cup of water trick

oh i see what the AI Euro's doing there. it's contracted the QPF around the NW arc by small amts, while the low is both a couple mb deeper and tracking slightly NW of previous runs. that's a consolidating going on

is everyone at lest half their seasonal snow totals then ?

no one's wasting time tracking these ... the learning curve in this era of [ enter whatever euphemism makes it more comfortable for you ] is large. can't really learn it otherwise

i wonder if we'll see cove and harbor slabs

actual pick up trucks parked out there

y'all lookin to flog someone or something cuz now your pissed. but it's your buying in and/or allowing you're moods be yo yoed by this thing. probably should work on your dopa dependency with 'blue light' and web access to weather chart thing, ha

it must be on his mind - he keeps bringing it up

meh to is his or her own as the old sayn goes. some of us do a lot of outdoor life during the summer that is at best hindered to do so, otherwise cannot be done in winters. for these types, about the only redeeming value winter has is the fascination of storminess. when that is at a premium ...to put it nicely, the point of it is time-wasting. and frankly, a lot of delusion and avoidance of obviousness enough to roll eyes needs to happen to deny the futility. ugh. no thanks. makes this journey really pretty bad.

the climate is abandoning the hobby haha

that's probably why, yeah. the gfs' synoptic forcing overcomes the convection, and since the nam's deep layer kinematics are weak...the convection takes over. why not

12z nam's doing that the 06z gfs left the conv alone and relies entirely on the synoptic q-g forcing not sure which is right

oh must be the 06z gfs fantasy. m'yeah i'd table that whole thing actually. i prefer when in times of unusually high uncertainty to avoid the consensus passively denying CC is fucking everything up and making it be that way ... by relying on index modes and modalities. they like the 28th - ground hog day -ish. there's some signal there re the this 24/25th but not as much, so that's why i table for now.

day 9/10 ...which one is that, off of which run cycle... this stuff is all f'n buckshot right now

Heh ... should that 06z GFS run verify, it would go quite some distance in recovering seasonal weather chart dopa hit deficits

I don’t know if I should be bothering but… The last couple runs of the RGEM have been interesting. Right around hour 72 give or take. Looks like there’s a low chasing convection out there with an elongation west in a smeared the pressure pattern. Granted, not excessively deep overal. Meanwhile, tracing the QPF pattern layout that looks like a CCB over SNE properso it’s almost like the model is seeing two different circumstance simultaneously. Hmm

It is slightly more amplified over TX by hr 60 ... not sure how that works itself out farther E as these changes are subtle, but there is a slight amplitude improvement at that interval

Personally as an industry I'm not pleased with the rollout of this new AI technology. This needs to have a prioritized expose as to how this stuff works. What the expectations are. It's all very difficult to find, and find that to be divisive. It's quite obvious why. There is a sense of competition, ask later -ism that is going on, where different sub-sectors are afraid of losing a competitive edge, so they are rushing out these AI products that are probably based on a rudimentary model that can be "tweaked" - but in the meantime, no one gets to know that they don't really know what, nor how to do it very well. That part is kept very hidden. It's just that everyone has AI this that and other ...so organizational ineptitude can remain lost in the noise of all this AI. Either way, being left with no answers other than food for suspicion doesn't lend confidence in any of these AI model versions. And it is a little scary as more and more non-criticality gets comfortable with an assumption in using them.

I don't trust these AI's "know" ( pun intended ) what they're doing. Looking at their 500 mb isohypses progressions through the periods they smack to me of the primitive MRF of the mid 1980s. It could also just be a coincidence, but I'm inclined to wonder nonetheless if that is why they are always optimistic/more so than their operational colleagues. It's like they are learning ... but they are just in the 1980s middle school, where as the operational runs today are ... freshmen in college say. Lot of metaphor packed into all that but you get my gist -

man... this all happened when that relay took place overnight with the GFS. this is also about when it finally pulled the plug on this event today, too ... right when I observed the ballast of the S/W mechanics were over land i'm growing more and more convinced that the data assimilation is getting caught with its pants down. i'm also beginning to suspect we are exposing an explanation for the mysterious mid range amplitude loss that seems to be pretty dependable - altho i see that in other guidance, too.

I don't think that stuff is true guys... The GFS dropped the 15/16 system, but then redrew it up where it is happening now. The Euro did the same thing; they just did this at different times. I realize there's some fun frustration context going on... but the problem is any model trying to perform in this type of pattern constraint.

Suggest watching the 24th thru the 30th for a significant event emergence in future guidance - weighted later. Unfortunately, ...waiting is not a virtue that comes easy to the beleaguered but you have no choice. I think anything prior to that last week is blind buckshot.

Actually the the convection is triggered the other way. The vmax has streamline and flow velocity -related difluence above an unstable environment, so the convection is triggering along that axis ahead of the vorticity ribbon you circled. Convective vorticity exposes in the speckling you see out ahead. Those are convective induced

No argument ... 12z has a low probability recovery chance. Tho it grows more and more difficult to imagine something working out right given the persistent failure quota, no doubt. Realistically, the odds probably don't favor so we're flipping weighted coins