Typhoon Tip

33 diurnal change before noon. That may be close to 3.5 hour record already.

There's an interesting techy aspect that Brian and I have monitored over the years having to do with machine/MOS numbers never seemingly able to catch up to the seasonal movement toward heat in springs. This effect doesn't appear to be as such in autumn when going colder. It has to do with MOS numbers being too low on days when the sun is very strong. MOS has a 'memory' so to speak. That memory is Climatology. It's complex though... MEX, for example, has small climate enhancing of the immediate day's values... which growns in weighting out in time. Such that D5 of that string has a ton. That is why when we look at D5 and it may say 80 for high temperature, when the climate on that day is say 60 ... that means you have a signal that must be extreme coming from the contributing model input. Because it is not only 20 points over the climate, the climate is supposed to be weighting the values from the metrically deduced numbers. That is why once in coon's age you get that 96 in April ... the MEX number on that day 5 might have been 20 points over. So MET and MAV being short term, in theory the climate weight is lower ...but it is not zero, either. It's hard to guess how much the MOS for D1 and D2 are being effected by climate weighting, but it could be the reason why these days will tend to be a degree or two colder than what actually takes place. It suspiciously seems like Climate Change might be part of the culprit. The other complication is how much so... I believe the climate in those MOS products are based on 30 year means. But those are not "running averages" ... so if the climate is improving steeply in 30 years and it is not running... and suppose the MOS day's climate weight is based up 27 year old means, then the weighting could be introducing larger error. As such ...I "think" the recent 30 year adjustment went in over the last 5 years...so we're at the earlier end, and we are definitely in a steep CC predicament. That said, the D1 and D2 are at the lower weighted end so makes the crushingly nerdy fetish of Asperger temperature watching like those idiots out there along the train track. It's a 4 line that runs 100 feet from my front door. They set up tripods and film freight trains going by. What the f is up with that! I think it's called 'train spotting' or ... ? who cares I don't care to look it up. I hate the f'n train. It's loud and disruptive. It vibrates the house on minutes after minutes worth of sometimes several times per day. They couple up and decouple half mile long screaching screaming steel on steel ending in something louder than lightning bolt 100 feet away bangs. 1.5 million metric tons of 'em, between 1 and 4 am. They've taken to parking long lines of shipping container cars, double stacked, that are holding garbage - literally garbage! And after they've sat parked under summer sun in 97 F heat ... stink of rotting vomit so vile as to challenge the very endurance of man ... they're doing a swell job at ruining life for myself, my neighbors.. the neighborhood. It's gotta be lowering property values... I mean Jesus H Christ - or lack thereof.. We've complained to the town, who's clearly getting a kick back form CGI ... otherwise we might apply for a Federal injunction of some kind. To me, it doesn't matter if the latter owns the rail. It's should be no different than house that puts on loud music on and disturbs the surrounding peace. That's not allowed!? why should corporate kuntitude be able to dump society's anal content 100 feet from our f'n front doors and walk away. So, along comes these train dweebles to appreciate fuckin' trains? Okay.

You need to suffer another 15 years of it and then you'll be as iron-hulled to it as the ships Labrador never claimed. You'll limp into port every spring surviving by the notion that 70 in May is actually a motherfucking bargain and you'll be happy. ha! If it is 70 and with more sun than cloud days ...? Shiiiii I'm calling that a relative win and a day. But yeah.. looks like in 2 weeks when the April/NASA numbers are out, the graph will again register that whether we are above normal for April or not, we will in comparison to everywhere else, be below ... every where else. Since October, 2025 we've be winning that distinction, save for one or two weak argument months. Altho... heh at any time NASA may cease to exist because of the creepy "operation silence the consilience" going on.

30th - the 4th or so still looks like -NAO frumunda' cheese though. Ooph.

Vying for the diurnal yearly record on this one. Decimals above 32 for a low, now 51 just 2 hrs later is exception. When driven purely by sun in still unmixed air that's exceptional. Normally I'd think machine guidance would be cool biased on a spring day with sun this tall and quite hot (August 15 equiv). But I was a bit surprised to see MET and MAV 68 to 70 around the BDL-FIT-ASH horn ...thinking those products would be 64 happy -NAO blue ballies. The lowest 200 feet to the ground is definitely going into a super adiabatic state, with lased ground-air conduction thermal exchange going on so despite the MOS above, 73 ping highs? Rarely get a 40 F, purely diurnal driven spread this closed to sea level yet these metrics make that look plausible. There's also likely to be a sea breeze boundary/cold wedge wobbling toward and probably somewhat beyond 495 by late afternoon. All this repeats tomorrow.

squarely above normal in a below normal pattern ?

This 18z NAM's a bit of a sneaky gem tomorrow... This run would exceed the MOS' that are based upon the 12z grids. Not by a lot... but W of the immediate coastal plain probably 62's, and a bit warmer yet in the deeper interior. With very light wind at times no wind, at this time of year/sun that's teeing off in sort sleeves.

So that we can get a winter like this last season every 8 to 11 years, otherwise, ...delude and gaslight ourselves and each other into believing we're here for snow ? pretty much - Faux I realize no one cares ... but soon as I've procured the wherewithal I'm out of here.

A lot more wrong with that than just being way out there ...

"big" may be subjective... "when" also not so clear. I'd give it the first full week of the month to be safe. Most of what we are seeing in the pattern forcing appears to be -NAO/West orienting. The index prognostics have that relaxing during the first week... The 00z Euro decided to go bonkers with a new +PNA right as that is happening, though. And that really delays and complicates the exit strategy from the -NAO. If that has legs then an unseasonable trough delays any warmer transition. We'll see. The GEFs/GFS diverge from that idea and instead go toward neutralizing most fields. If that's the case, we go back to modestly AN. It's spring. Variance headaches are typical -

Yeah, no comment on the 3K Well, that’s a nasty couple of days next week, huh? The thing is that’s been in models for quite some time the first through the third. Solid teleconnector signal too. probably just have to mail that in. Hopefully we can get 2 to 3 inches of basin coverage out of that. I think it gets mild to warm at the end of that week, though. The real green up thrust.

There is some logic in expecting the NAM to be north bias without its ongoing performance… Has to do with a negative north Atlantic oscillation particularly on the western limb. With that being the case the forcing is south so the suppression similar to the GFS is probably a better tele connection for that particular index state.

Nam is always north of all of the guidance at this range 228th time stated I guess once in a blue moon it’s right, but most of the time it comes south

I understand the feelings ..I wouldn't attempt to dismiss or belittle them. However, taken fwiw I don't recall many April 23rds since I've been alive, that had very dependably desired weather outlooks either in play, or having been experience up to this point in the month. I'm not put off by this like it's a new plague and CC thing. I mean okay ...maybe.. But this seems to be behaving typically to me. You wanna croon and crow, go back to 2005 May. Now that'll knock back some Zanax. I dread this time of year because of what it is, which is behaving as usual to date as far as my experience and climate awareness say it should.

There's a diffused re-enforcing cool front passing through ( because we need more cold of course...). The wind gusting has slacked off here in the last 1/2 or so hour so it might've been a transient aspect of that feature.

Ha ha ha that’s all right. I knew I was going to incur the wrath just by bringing it up.

I'm a little more than 1/2 your age, then (bold) I'm already moving the other spiritual direction with regard to winter, though. I started longing more and more for 'the one that got away', which most sadly and likely not going to change - hoping on an alternate universe manifestation on that. No, it's not Christine - that was a passing story years ago that some obsess over for some reason. Anyway, I’m also increasingly longing for an escape place. This last year is the first when growing indifference tipped the scale away as finally exceeded the fading love for winter. The thing is, I'm still fascinated by the evolution of winter storms. But my fascination for a much large breadth of aspect in other sciences and experiences just seemed to grow along the way - natural personal evolution. I'd rather be involved with the fantasy science of anti-gravity propulsion systems. The search for extra-terrestrial life. Writing and publishing another science fiction novel - which I am working on... These ex of other fascination no longer need include this climatology, which in fact has been getting disrupted enough, anyway - I don't wanna play that denial game every November anymore. What used to be 'reasonably' dependable is not relegated to leveraging return rates and decaying probabilities. If/when I lose it for winter, it makes these April abominations that much more tedious to endure, too. Last winter was the first where it was ~ Dec 1 and loathed the notion that it would be a 5 month slog of cold and early sunsets

Hartford, aka BDL, is +4 and change for April.

Ah hahahaha perfect!

Ha! didn't y'all just have this exact same conversation two weeks ago? I don't get the impression you're succeeding in influencing that particular poster.. lol. Umm he's not inclined to agree with you, much less even read further than 'not great' when it comes to whatever it is he's using to promote the avoidance of inevitable seasonal progression toward summer. hahaha. that goes on here a lot. Like no problem admitting summer; but don't admit to signs and process -

We keep in mind also that the ambient thermal gradient between the tropic of Cancer and 50 N is getting weaker and weaker. By June, it's usually getting to it's perennial nadir - with the exception of any jet meanders which do happen once in a while. By and large though that all means the long wave, wave lengths are shortened to the point where any would-be NE Pac positive anomaly doesn't teleconnect that same in late May through late August as it does in late Novie through Feb/March. Shorter wave lengths in fact can intuitively signal a SW Canadian negative, over top a Great Basin/SW conus capping ridge, setting up future Sonoran release events... Quit a different implication from -EPO/January

Oh, completely agreed! ( full disclosure, I'm hoping for it). I don't wanna give Kevin any reason at all to start pimping drought fallacies in attempts to set up the dystopian d-drip doses all summer... meanwhile, my lawn stays green until mid august. Yeah, as far as the NAO handling... it's ( we know this -) obviously a stochastic index domain... but I sort of ignore the distractions of the individual model runs and just rely on a combination of 3 basics: the 5 day running mean of the synoptic structure; climatology; personal experience - as you mentioned, that -NAOs tend to blossom/lag after a period of usual early warmth - particularly when said warmth is over the eastern mid latitude continent. This latter need correlative proof and is personally anecdotal, but it is a late winter and spring phenomenon I have noted over many years. Just combining all that gunk... -NAO appears set up and well ?

It looks 'to me' like that's sort of symbolic as a last hurrah, like a winter death gasp before those in the room swear to seeing a glow exiting the body... Might even manifest as a bona fide coastal/Nor'easter ( before gallooting, know that it would swept rains). And I wouldn't be shocked if a new moon is scheduled then, too. That's always like that. Jesus. I've stopped fighting why and just assume at this point. The Earth's atmosphere always wants to pick on Block Island during full moon/spring tide. Just use the modeled atmosphere to tell when the spring tide is there - without even using astro charts ... heh. If there isn't a spring tide, then the modeled low ends up not happening. "Seems" is not the same as correlation though so... tfwiw. Anyway, after that would-be event ( or just the 30th -2nd period in general), I sense a significant flip may occur - pun unavoidable. Lately I've seen very very subtle hints in the operational Euro model's extended artistry for blocking breakdowns. As of last night, the control version of both the EPS and the GEFs systems are nose diving the PNA very negative into the first week of the month. Mind us, this is the 22nd of April so it's not like that's a coon's age away. We'll see. I'm wondering if this time next week we're looking at an impressive see-saw warming over the eastern mid latitudes - above season/climo.

You can actually see the thermal processing of the lower levels on the 06z UKMET for Friday rather nicely... This lobe of modestly warmed 850 mb layout bulbing up over SNE around 21z is definitely because of the sun + compressed d-slope working it over. This is one of those 60 day dandies Brian was mentioning yesterday. I also recall mentioning a couple three days ago that the pattern didn't really look crushingly negative to me - more like neutral with an offsetting lean. It's just hard to get us BN frankly, unless we have more direct feeds of perpetual inject into the region - hint hint, which we did this last winter

This air mass is both colder than normal, but also... rather prone to machine/automation busts. It's just because the sun is by now seasonally hugely potent, and growing. I was just looking at Friday... that's a general light WNW to NW down slope compression look under an 850mb -2 or -3. Jeez, I've seen it be almost 60 F over a snow pack in mid February due to full sun under 0C 850s. So, although-2 or -3 is a bit of a neg anom, the surface results can be offset quite a bit when compression from air down sloping happens under all that solar power dumping into the environment. Wouldn't shock me to see those MEX numbers verify too cool