Typhoon Tip

It might be starting to expose what was going on with these late corrections that seemed odd early in the day. That’s when the storm is bombing It’s strange, but it’s like when it bombs hyper contracts in the models

Pretty fascinating, snow growth explosion going on over the monadnocks as that cold east flow’s forced up slope

I just mean models, how the snow gradient almost goes down to a dusting where Brian is It’s probably gonna be OK but it just seems like it’s gonna get further north than that - satellite lies sometimes.

You’re probably gonna have a temperature crash there even if it’s only three or 5°. It’ll be enough to dry it out some… But yeah, you don’t want to have loading in the trees when the wind suddenly picks up, especially if it’s isallobaric because it’ll just accelerate really quick and then that can be a problem.

I tell you that’s one of the most eerie looking IR satellite loops I’ve seen associated with a coastal system There’s gonna have to be a hell of a lot of slantwise defamation in order for all that cold cloud tops to not snow in north of us.

Couple of random bigger lakes, now mixed in with the flipping prisms

Fascinating like they’re a little bit convective, narrow bands, ripping West Northwest

I think some of this north of that main three level green band down there might be a little bit enhanced by the ocean because these echoes seem to be moving west north west while the band down there is slowly inching north up underneath and as it comes north it just overwhelms everything

Pixie dust snow just started here It’s very light, but the sky’s with that glowing butterscotch color It just smells pregnant with snow out there…

I wonder if that non-thunderstorm wind damage/event in SC was related to any kind of sting jet/tropopheric folding...

4-6" in this band alone

It stands for Moist or maybe it's mixed .. Absolute Unstable Layer. It's basically where the WCB splits near the occlusion triple point - the eastern split rides up the warm frontal glide and discipates into the entrance jet regions. The western split is the goodies! It peels back west on the N side of the cyclone cylinder..., rising over the cold wedge that is on the N and NW side of the occluded formation, where it is made to be exceptionally unstable in an elevated layer. This is where it services us with lightning and thunder snow rates, particularly if there is a 300 mb entrance jet fan on the N side of occluded boundary. That gives it a difluence assist and the lift can be insane where MAUL is delivering warm moist air ( into the snow growth region in cold cyclone models). I'll try and draw a picture of this...

oh you guys beat me to it

MAUL popping up on some recent guidance tools. Will and I were anticipating this a couple days ago. It's interesting that it seemed almost less evident yesterday but is here now.

I don't think these models are going to stop until they at once finally succeed in creating the perfect total tropospheric set up with 0 happening.

It'll be like watching the snow blowing off one of the Swiss Alps

...then it ends abruptly for them in flurries and turbine wind gusts, as it is escalating to a whirling white out froth back east.. Power going out in twice their snow totals. They're posting about how it busted this, or it's not as big as storm as everyone thought that ...

Rad motions are generally S to N, west of the Hudson River Valley. Just sayn'

Yeah the more I look at this ... the GFS is at minimum questionable. The upside (also) is that QPF may be underdone up under the NW quadrant of the 700 to 500 mb cyclonic arc

LOL, JMA refuses ...

well, blizzard is more about visibility. If you get 6" of snow, and 55 mph routine gusting, your' getting blizzard like conditions. We tend to associated blizzard with big snow depths. There's certainly lap over in how you can get to a terrible visibility and dangerous scenario... but in this case, we still probably have a wind issue. I haven't read their forecast discussions, just throwing this in

We're getting a storm... I don't care about senses of loss whether it's historic or even just pedestrian. It's likely to be somewhere in between. It's funny, there are two competing concepts ( synoptic ) that are both true. The -PNA never really correlate(d)(s) with this. But, there was a relative +d(PNA) which contains this system. Both the standard EOFs and the rotated PCAs at CPC versions, show this latter nested anomaly. It can get the deed done. It seems these very recent global version are wavering toward the former, more non-linear/transitive forcing. Why that is trying to usurp now just 18 hours before go - that's maybe just the state of the technology.

You could be metaphysically culpable in this, Jer' I mean, in 1978 ... you spent the storm in the Bay Area, longing from afar. This time? what, did you think you could outfox destiny's weird fetish intention of making sure Jerry misses out? lol

Can this winter please go ahead end now ? haha ... Ah boy. Yeah if that decides to be the verifying solution, this is largely a bust. Probably not in the fairest or absolute sense... call it a 70 .. 80% bust. The NAM did tick E spanning the last couple of runs... something is causing this to do this almost on top of the event. It would be fascinating to understand what exactly that is, whether it is something about data sampling/grid initializations, vs over processing, or somehow error born in between. The larger synoptic scaffolding is unchanged. This is all, 100% of it ( as far as I can tell) idiosyncratic to the internal handling of the system and how it integrates within that synoptic totality. Not sure there is really a way to account for that, so any such study might just reveal this to be random. Interesting.

I'd like another model cycle. I'd say if the 18z's roll in with another of this seeming attempt to get a reduction by our noses, we might consider limiting this to major headlines. Also ... the difference between a "major" event and something say, top 5/history and so forth, isn't likely to register much differently in the high 90s percentile population. Just being a member of the species and modern culture ( lol ), but intuitively the individual would see 1/8th mi vis and snow 3/4 the way up their SUV's tire wells, and figure for a well handled event. perhaps the distinction is more for us in that sense. This storm is idiosyncratically compact, and if it bumps 50 mi E, we're just going to have to consider that when it comes to snowfall distribution. Now-cast workout... SE Mass could take a particular pummeling, even in a shaded total system profile.