Typhoon Tip

Two aspects going on at the same time. One, the operational models are physically doing everything shy of violating physical laws to shirk the overall warm pattern (attempting to do so without notice too. lol). Two, the ensemble smoothed means are showing that the warm pattern is transient. It seems the operational/tradition models ( not AIs) are ending up with looks that are sort of rushing to the latter. There might also be some environmental feed backs going on that I wonder if the AIs actuallly handle. Not sure.. speculation. Like, 10-20" of ambient geographic cryosphere. The sun needs to be unabated, because under clouds with that at the bottom might be a heat sink. Probably have to take the dailies one at a time and not forecast with much confidence beyond 72 hours. I wouldn't. Keep it at a principle level and allow for bigger errors. This is kind of what we discussed all along - well, I discussed... Not going for more than melt and mud with any confidence. I realize the AI versions show no shame but they are also not lasting very long, either. The 00z GEFs extended index looks similar to March 1993

It's mostly an overrunning type scenario.. so don't look for coastal machinery per se.

That's gotta chance at being a legit moderate impact winter storm if this sets up like this (GFS) on Friday

I don't know if it's just the Euro being like the GFS in early March where it does a seasonal roll-back beyond D7 .. 10, but that extended may as well be Feb 2nd

Yeah... can't please everyone. My parents live in Kalamazoo Mi, which is about as far W as one can go in the E time zone. By the time the sun sets, and then crawls along the horizon the way it does in summer ..they're like 10:15 at night when the highest trees still have a slight orange roman sun on them. Meanwhile, by 9:20 here we're done and gone. At the other end of the day... we're getting light at 4:50 am, yet they're still steeped in inky black. I don't personally need daylight waking me up at 5am at any time of the year... though some people do and it helps them for their life styles and requirements. Then there's school and children considerations... but that seems to be less and less logistical because this complicating world no longer one-sizes all kids required times and herds. There's just no way to suit everybody. It gets light here at 7am in the winter, but it's 8 there... At least they have at least some daylight left at 5 in the winter, though.

It's like symbolically ( perhaps even philosophically ...) this event is a warm front passage. Look at these FOUS sounding numbers at Logan for Wednesday afternoon 36016989370 05106 251211 43000300 42059989570 05307 182808 45010300 48004903707 -4908 223211 39000200 54000861937 -3712 252705 44040401 60000811632 -0113 262213 46060501 Prior to dawn on Wednesday, that's like snowing where I am, freezing rain/IP in a band between Rt 2/Pike, and cold rain, all yielding to explosive temperature rises immediately after the sun comes up. Those thermal profiles nearing 0z Thursday suggests it was over 60F early in that afternoon over thoroughfares and parking lots. Probably not over snow packed fields .. buuut, there'll be residual moisture being baked by March sun at higher mixing temperature - that's going to have DPs probably in the 40s with Ts say 57. Likely the greatest melt day yet in this slowly unfurling spring.

vroom sarcasm. It's alright. there's no vocal inflection in here

oh yeah ... clocks go ahead an hour this Sunday. Finally getting models in the middle of the night - thank god

Fast moving TX Panhandle to Detroit cutters seem like an option in that baseline pattern, too.

It's poor timing on the season, really This hemispheric super synoptic layout/behavior could have very well set up in Dec or Jan or early in Feb, but instead by happenstance does so in March, when the climate clock and solar recovery are not only ticking... but, time seems like it is speeding up to Old Man Winter. Just sayn' This pattern doesn't scream "end" to me though - all three major ens systems hitting this hard. Overnight EPS for 300 hours PV on our side of the hemisphere with -2 SD anomalies anchoring over the Canadian archipelago means that cold is aplenty. Whether it delivers in the right times and spaces to be involved in events at our latitude? It won't be because winter has intrinsically ended, it means being bent over and sore butted by chance ... those are different predicaments to suffer. LOL. Either can certainly happen in March. My suggestion is just to keep your "expectations" sufficiently lubed at all times such that when chance invades your dignity it won't be as painful. I will say though .. part of keeping expectations in check, notice that this PV is underpinned by modest +anomalies? Those anomalies are actually "potentially" much higher, but the PV being of greater magnitude is compressing the heights to the point where it masks that potential. But that potential is going somewhere and it is converted into velocity (U component) of the westerlies... consequentially being higher than normal. Speed isn't an auto 86er on chances... but it does cause needle threading this, as well as sheer reductions in amplitude that.

'nough said,

heh..yeah, different discussion.

Heh who knows about after the 15th that’s beyond the end of 360 hours of modeling; it is complete speculation with extremely low odds. I was just speaking in deference to this single model run … People that are claiming that this is cooling things back off again within those frames probably had trouble letting go of the tooth fairy in their youth. I don’t know.

GFS was mild in general… pretty much like we’ve been saying Mild it up and melt it off Whether we get some kind of warmer spike in there at a time or two remains to be seen, but it’s undeniable that that’s backing the Arctic jet further in Canada and exposing the lower 48 states to more pretty red sicknesses

Low DPs Get that up to 60/40 and you'll see bare ground in 2 days flat, particularly if it is either sunny, or especially if it rains with DP over 37-ish

This is actually the first day of the impending warm season where the sun offsets CAA. It's forcing is lagging the CAA - helped also by the fact that it's a light d-slope also. But this is common in spring and summer. Sometimes, we actually get "hot" behind cold fronts when the d-slope dries out and the intense diabatic flux then extends the BL and we roast under retarded/offset 850s. That night it'll shed 30 F though When the sun kisses the western horizon, the temp's going to drop like a disgraced prom date.

mm.. Brian makes a good point on that. well, firstly...the whole "season's back broke" thing is both stupid, and my fault. I'm the one that first proffered that metaphor back 15 years ago. ... I remember doing so, and have regretted having done so, ever since. Because people don't use it within the restraint of objectivity; they abuse the use and/or there is no consistent definition of what that is. Mostly, whomever doesn't like the season at hand cites the back broke sentiment at least excuse to do so which isn't the purpose of that either. When I first said that years ago, it was in deference to the 'pattern of summer' breaking down. There are certain climo pattern return tendencies for each season. In august, we typically do so the first signs that it is teetering. This is sensibly revealed by no longer being as persistently hot(not being cold) in latter summer or winter, respectively. What's skewing matters is CC ( also) because we are observing summer looks in Novembers, and winter looks in Mays. It's why I regret ever starting that meme saying. It's like backs are healing for more hefting. In this case of winter 2026 and what Brian's sort of intimating there, a big blocking episode was ending in mid February, and folks had March right there in their foresight by then, so it seemed just as good a time. It just so happens we tucked a historic storm in there. LOL

Ah... both things can be true. 'Sides, to be fair ... it's snowed 30" in April before, when winter's back was most definitely broke. LOL

Ha ha... I don't think Brian likes the dullard plight of reality

Probably just an AN tendency marred by occasional frontal positions ...typically for March. Cold enthusiasts pimping their impressions of the marring times, while heat enthusiasts cherry pick warm afternoon 2-meter outlooks that are beyond D7 lol. At the end of the two weeks, neither side has more than a shit eating grin to show for it.

Well, in any event ... first day of Meteorological spring. Time of the year when the streets can start steaming while it is snowing.. more so toward mid month+ but we're gettin' there. As I pointed out earlier, the indices are giving numerical values that have correlated to some impressively warm departures in springs of the past. However, the operational models ( save maybe the 00Z CMC) are not expanding their solution to fill that gap. They're coming out with solutions that are 50 (GFS) or 70% (Euro). I have to say, I don't really have a problem with that limited idea. The PV is decidedly on our side of the NP/hemisphere... These overnight ensemble means are showing a rather extraordinarily deep signature out there between the 15th and 20th anchored around the Canadian archipelago - granted that's a long ways off, during a spring month no less doesn't lend a lot of confidence/stability expectations, but they all three have it. Pure speculation, but that being there (if/when...) likely compresses the gradient and keeps the atmosphere fast, as well as chillier from the GL-NE at those latter times. We'll see.

I doubt it's a joke for a lot of you...

The indices for the mid month would allow for a warmer look than the operational runs are really committing to over these last couple of cycles No one‘s failing to see any fucking trees. There are some people that are ignoring the tea leaves in lieu of any solution that looks like or placates/enabling your friggin psychosis with winter and getting model dopa hits ha It may be that the operational runs are more right than the index sometimes that happens To reiterate for the 18th time, I wouldn’t go much more than a melt or mud season onset for the time being.

Bump for the ( learning impaired + asshole)/2

Well apparently it is ... because I've been on the conservative side of how warm it will get all along, and you keep dipshittingly misrepresenting what I've been saying.