Typhoon Tip

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

best spatial-temporal window is still 29/30/01 ... but the PNA moves positive from the 24th - roughly GHD

vaguely defined deform band right over me down to W side of ORH is actually snowing pretty good with pour growth mini aggs

Hopefully this happens barely 3 days after the deepest season defining arctic nadir pattern...

this morning's band down there was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

that was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. i don't. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

yeah, Vortex95 mentioned that earlier… I asked if that had any norlun signature in the sounding to it … Not an exact match, but did kind of look that way. No answer, but I haven’t gone to look myself.

I’ve seen that before… That’s 2 to 3” Then, if you get five on top of that boom, you’ve got a warning 8 inches in 24 hours I think that’s the rule don’t quote me

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

NAM was west of 18z

That’s a good description for what we had today. The particles falling really really slow. Even the big ones floating. Yet I get out there and it was like the best snowball fight snow ever.

You’re not wrong about that…

“Relax man“? - you do succeed at one thing, dissuading me from even wanting to read that thing

Nah not seeing a reason for negative attitude on that beyond the 25th no way… First of all the ridge axis associated with that positive PNA is perfectly climatologically aligned in terms of longitude. Anything that gets ejected each of that feature will end up west of that trough as depicted in the EPS mean that Brooklyn’ provided. But it’s not just that spatial reasoning and a-priori aspect, the index is numerological ie pure mathematics. It’s like we’re mathematically sounding an alarm and we have at least a reasonable footprint in the spatial structure out there? But you know yeah ..,we have the last 10 years of Stockholm syndrome and so non-believability is too easy because of that. I can understand that If we change the indexes and that scaffolding starts to mutate, etc., no problem You know, frankly, I made the glib prediction back in early September that we would have an early loaded winter followed by a sputtering January and then a flowery February. Granted there’s a lot heuristics with that … Still I think it might be difficult to hold onto this favorable look that deep into February. Much beyond the first week you guys are on your own.

Meanwhile the numerical indices are even more aggressive with the month's end -week signal. Don't mean to come off a way about it but ... I'm not personally worried about a random Euro run or two, two weeks before said index window ... Based on those, this operational run is an outlier for it's last 7 days. If the indexes change that's another story but the current divorced operational Euro is really too excessive for belief. Either it corrects ... or the less likely, seldom seen wholesale mass backed indexes go toward a single operational paranoid run. haha

fit's the NAM's NW bias ... but actually, that bias is more 36-60 hours so not sure in this case. hm

what's the sounding like at that time ... kind of has a norlun look to it but there's some cyclostrophic banded structure too so not entirely.

Mmm no. That's a black box description. It doesn't describe the gears of the model. You can believe what you like. You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously. Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point.

well, you and others are doing fine, too. I mean we'll see? we've seen unusual behaviors where varying elaboration/coherence morph before there can be a realized event. That's been a thing in recency ( decadal ). The telecons come in and out of signal, doing so before there's been enough time to realize correlated events. fascinating if frustrating. So for now ...it is what it is

Quickly nearing advisory verification here... S vis est .75 mi 2.25" 33 deg

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others: no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools. For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck. This situation is no different. This is the logical and the correct approach. It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet. Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back? I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.

That's likely overcooked in the GFS handling... tho event(s) cannot be ruled out prior to the 27th-ish, given the crazy thermal gradient/baroclinic potential between Manitoba and the Gulf that will preside thru the continental midriff latitudes. The flow shall remain fast as that gradient in large part resolves itself in the form of huge geostrophic baseline wind velocities.... that in and of itself lends to less super large very organized cyclogenic results. I like morphing that into an over runner/multi wave type thing. The bigger signal with multi variant telecon source/other techniques overwhelmingly flags the 27th thru Feb 1+ ... 29th -ish is like a quasar on JWST. Mentioned this early ...now the 12z GFS with a first stab ( not to be taken literally of course - ) is close to the eye-candy, full on capture subsume historically phased bomb scenario... This period of time at the end of the month is the most elaborate converging teleconnector scenario I've seen in a few seasons . interesting

Yes! to the point/observation I just mentioned, this fits

I'm way behind but I reasoned that out yesterday... The diffluent "fan" of the isohypses appears to be sensitive in this case. The more expanded that is toward the NW, the model's been 'filling' more QPF

... which, doesn't comment on the stability ... It's 240+ hours and just outside the range where these larger scaled 'scaffolds' become more reliable -