Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-hypertropical-climate-emerging-amazon-exposing.html

Fantasy range appears headed for the same CC apocalypse lol

right... 74 in Central Park, and 68 in BTV, too

LOL, the CFS from 00z is the best model of all for the 14th

If this suddenly arrives in the grids and has more physical forcing then those on-panels (above) might get 10 or 20% more meaningful to the region ( S-E). If less, the flatter versions there prevail.

right. you know, tracking that s/w's spacing back in the flow ..it's not even yet over the American owned sounding domain. I'm sure we're not exactly purchasing sounding data from Russia heh ...if they are even plumbing the skies over Siberia at all in the first place. Anyway, it's all based on assimilation. Although satellite sounding. Still, it's almost like the models assume something should be there in the flow in that spatial-temporal/geometric region, then propagating the assumption along ...at difficult to manage, ludicrous speed. Perhaps if there was better physically realized, direct sampling the handling might be more stable. I mean I suspect something like this is going on. Look at the Euro's last 4 cycles ... left to right, the most recent to 24 hours ago ( 6 hours apart). On off on off... That's been rather predictable just within that small range. Something perhaps added than missing every other run

yeah.... good way to describe. I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all. It's not one or the other, tho. It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn.

Maybe the inevitable bump north will for once help the cause

Hey wasn’t the 14ther the same one that the GFS put out 970mb blizzard for se zones about 5 or 6 days ago

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely

that post reeked of self-soothing ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet.

yeah anyway. you can't trust guidance beyond 90 or so hours in this maelstrom of a hemisphere. that goes for anything

Haha... How about, cuz'n it was 360+ hours out 'nough said?

I'm starting to think similarities that are dropping out of the comparison to the 1980s era of doldrums may be more of a coincidence. I was fully sentient then...I remember a lot less speed/velocity stressing in the flow types through that era compared to today. Boned for different reasons but the pay-check is the same.

well like I said a couple days ago. It might help the psycho-babbleness of it all if one sets up their expectations according to this being the new paradigm. there might be a reason we're seeing this leitmotif playing out every winter for the last 10 years or whatever, particularly over the last 5 years. there's been good times interspersed, sure... if look back 2017 or 18 or whatever. but objectively, what we're observing now has been dominant as though it has become the new base-line circulation type/norm. i keep hearing this internal statement, 'when the flow slows, it's too warm to snow'.

thanks support's still rather tepid

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html appears really only 1 member supports ... P026 But ..whatever. That thing has about as much chance verifying as any given D13 bomb does. Basically none

No one's askin' but ... I do. My 'druthers spectrum' changed as I've aged. I only like winter now if it is cyclonic and interesting. This is not that. No use for just cold at any time of year. Now, unless it serves something interesting? that's different. But making it un-fun to be outside, as it's only and singular achievement is a rotten horrible piece of shit winter. Proooobably? yeah, I'm not here after retirement - b'bye. But for the time being, if it's not going to be interestingly stormy, I just rather we blow torch it all away

ICON's taking a stab at the 00z Euro notion on this 12z run fwiw -

Flower February

Only a 132 hours away ... I guess we give it a shot ( lol, this crew gives 360's an at bat). Still, we are challenged by immensely fast atmosphere. Most are aware by now that this shortens the outer time range where confidences fade to randomness, considerably. Agree with Ryan that blends/ens clusters are the best bet. For now, the EPS does have a vague signal on the 14th, suggesting the operational EC is bit of a jacked outlier ( 00z ), but am noticing that those members are below 1000 mb it seems 1/3 of the members are likely significant, while 2/3rds struggle with cirrus clouds. Interesting range

another in a parade of phantoms