Typhoon Tip

I suspect that 16th system in these recent GFS runs is legit

Ha. you know ... I've often thought that the 21s date-designation for seasonal demarcation as a being humanity bullshit anyway. According to a mash up history lesson by NOAA and the Royal Met Society, The 21st is often recognized as a seasonal change date because it aligns closely with the astronomical events of the solstices and equinoxes, which are determined by Earth's position relative to the Sun. Specifically, the March equinox, marking the start of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, typically occurs around March 20 or 21, while the September equinox marks the beginning of autumn around September 22 or 23. That bold is bullshit. Why? Because it doesn't account for the solar increasing irradiance that takes place before March 21. Nor does it account for the solar irradiance lost prior to the September 21. Both times in which there are notable increase vs decrease ( respectively) in the mean temperature (ie, seasonality), which are a direct response to the gain vs dimming caused by Earth's position relative to the Sun. Hello? So, I give these sources ( and the AI that did the mashing ...) a bit of a pass on this because they are after all having to describe this stuff to idiocracy - different discussion. However, in reality, winter should end, and spring should begin, on the date that the solar min ends. Spring ends, summer begins on the date the solar max begins. Summer should end and autumn begins when the max ends and -transition solar season starts... And on and so on throughout the calendar year. Nov 8 to ~ Feb 9 is winter. Solar min Feb 9 to ~ May 7th is spring. +Solar transition May 7 to ~ Aug 10th is summer. Solar max Aug 10 to ~ Nov 8 is autumn. -Solar transition And these vary by latitude. Note, being 42 and change N, we are close to even parts per quarter, so 91.25 days plus the fact that the E spend a tiny more time on the summer part of it's orbit ... etc. That is more realistic and obeys/observes the physical constraints native to the celestial mechanics of our solar system.

There is a vague signal on the 15th/16th ... as that implies, not super coherent.

heh.. the back may be broken? Either way, winter isn't dead, however. The only change in guidance/means/blends that I see is that the intense cold is alleviating. It kinda has to, anyway. We're leaving the solar min today. The variance is not noticeable just standing there. It's a virtual boundary. However, circa the 20th and beyond, anomalies have to get more and more extreme to offset that factor. Coupling this with an abeyance of direct N/stream .. academic. In so far as what this means for the next 10 or so day... it looks like to me that the direct N/stream dominating flow type is backing off, that's all. Actually beginning on the heels of this present annoyance. However, not sure that marks the end as much as the emotion is marketing the end. Look at what is actually on the guidance, we're just changing from N/stream dominating cold, to oscillatory between seasonally cool and seasonally warm. In other words, typical for February. Normal February is still winter. Should the warm side of those oscillations win by some small margin...meh. I expect that much. That's more like manifesting the 1990-2020 climatology + the ongoing correction term, a latter aspect that is always in play really. Different discussion. this can all change .. but in so far as what is physically presented (and has been recently) in the guidance suites, not sure I see winter as being hugely hobbled just yet. The clock is certainly ticking...

I think it’s possible the models are underdoing or not responding rather to the north pacific yet We’ll have to see how this goes

If you need to.. I guess - Look, those that "feel" blunt truth is a trolling - grow the fuck up. Try reality for a change. Cold air masses at the same relative thickness are not as kinetically deep at the end of February, because the sun doesn't allow that. deal with it. Plus, the models are over amplified ...routinely, at that range. Add those two together, his point was spot on. These are facts.

Asshole or not ... he happens to be quite correct in those two points he made there.

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Tick killer cold on these NAM runs over the weekend. jesus christ

Heh...I was lookin at that. It's almost like the spread is literally too spread out and it's just lighting up the whole time span. Like it's evenly distributing members at different times.

It'll go under climo at even 80% verification of those mass fields

yeah, that's a fun euro run, no doubt - but on off on off... pick a f'n date and stick with it.

Agreed. I don't believe the front really gets E of that trough axis... I think it kind of slows as it incurs on that thing's axis; then it collapses thru after the fact.

mm hm. Sure is. The flow is in torpedo mode. So a 'few inches' whenever/wherever it occurs might be considered more of an achievement - relative to faster flow limitations. The western ridge refuses to gain latitudinal arc in the ongoing verification, and that's been/is keeping a modestly compressed, slightly faster than normal field, thus preferentially progressive. Those former two aspects are constructively interfering such that S/Ws move from circa IA clear NE of Nova Scotia in 36 hours.. What is that, 1 and 1/2 times faster than climate trajectories? I bet you we could create like an index finger rule, similar to the 1kt = 1mb, only for S/W vs output. 1::1 like that... for every 10% a S/W is moving faster than climo, that's 10% reduction in productivity. -10%, and it adds because that means the system slowed down and donut stuffed a region like Homer Simpson in hell ... who of course encounters Ned Flanders as the devil...

that bigger snow event we had recently was STJ driven. You could see it coming across the Baha up underneath a S/W opening closed low as it ejected through that area. It slid up NE over the cold dome... the rest was dopa hits -

A perversion of the Nina background state/correlation, probably could use the RONI technique I'm guessin' These ENSOs, warm and cold, have been sort of idiosyncratically uncoupled to hemispheres at times, more frequently over recent decade(s) - I recall writing about this in here, 15 years ago... Then RONI comes out and well... I don't have a problem with it because obviously (then) I was not the only one taking observational note about all this over the years. I'm just sayn' I don't have a problem and why-for there can be a generalized Nina and still manifest aspects that seem incongruent. Not that you asked LOL

00z left ..06z right. Euro I mentioned this yesterday that there's a bit of a sneaky norlan look to this. Certainly an IVT of some sort. If the former turns out true and verifying, it is less likely the models will have nailed precisely where the "unscheduled" snow fall rates set up...

Perhaps .. but that looks like it could have easily set up W-N-S-E just given the Jackson Pollock look to that overall QPF artistry.

Garbage series of runs from everything

That's the other thing ... people are referring to the times as -NAO ? Not sure that applies to next week so much. The fact of the matter is, the -NAO is rising pretty rapidly from now through that period and beyond. Oh wait ...when are you guys talking about ?

It depends... Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60? We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other. Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now. Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. It will correct very fast if given a reason. Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through. Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...

As others noted... weak system... 6 days away, a stronger more physically exerting moment in the atmosphere would probably show more comparative value among the three ens means, gfs/eps/geps than what we see here. Three different looks, what could go wrong?

yeah, that's true. fast/speed is you know this is a good use case to help demo for whom ever needs it, how speed gets in the way. you can get a sense of that by looping how this SPV zooms in - that's a lot of mass to be moving that fast se, and so it then low captures ... after which it foists it back NW. It's like grabbing a running back from the back of their jersey for the tackle. That's the deep layer vortex actually outpacing the lower levels. I tell you what tho. Even with this whole mess trying to work out in a fast field, if the western heights were to amp a little that might offset that tendency enough for this to become a player. Not trying to hot dose anyone's dopa for the day just sayn what needs to go right.

Let's just imagine for a sec the op GFS is onto something with the emphasis shifting from later on the 14th/15th, to an early amplification by the 13th. That 500mb vortex does actually capture this guys, and turns into a white 'cane for D.E.M. That's in the stone's through for us from 192 hours... just sayn'

Not that continuity is typically better at 200 hrs. Ha! Models shouldn’t be judged really for that range. just have to wait