Typhoon Tip

It missed us south ... no question. Last minute Charlie Brown. I was blaming it on that outflow waste that poured through the area overnight and tho I feel there's some value there, I'm also noticing the rim of the core/tallest heights arrived on the 12z sounding S of the guidance mean leading prior to today. So we were duped a bit ... These are minoring issue and probably don't account for very much ...but the difference between 97 and 102 really isn't that much, either. But it could be enough to have cost us that much of a fake out. I'm wondering if tomorrow goes ahead and stalls at 94 ?

actually 99 here for the moment ... hottest this summer now

I've been stuck at 97 for two hours straight.

Logan touched 100 apparently

Man, this 12z Euro bidness would make today seem like COC if it ever got kicked outta the west

97

Really ... I've come to find that heat goes out with a bang more so when it is tied up with a frontal/warm sector. This is broadly synoptic in scale - I may certainly be wrong but just my impression over the years, when the ridges doing these heat wave ordeals deflate, the heat does in fact leave quietly. Then, some front comes along after the fact ... interesting

Logan 99

In fairness I think Boston metro at large is vindicated ... there's enough NWS hundos here to go ahead with it

Well rats bid ... ORH is 90

I'm also less impressed with this ridge as we've come thru the finally stretch of modeling. We're not over 590 dm heights actually, which was sustained for several day's worth of model cycles in the blend. There may have been individual model/runs along the last week's worth of guidance that didn't but they must have been rarer, considering the mean had 594 dm right at that door most of the time. Yet we're 588. That's impressive enough I guess ... but it seems we were sneaky Charlie Browned by a little here. I think in order for us to get a bona fide 102 for two days in row ...the models have be down right Hadean ... so we can go ahead and tax us our cursed boning for this region leaving an actual amazing event.

97 at Logan They may be surging

I don't argue this ... but, just the same I'd like to have seen today's set up operated on by diurnal heating ... without the overnight processing event, which stayed safely N of NYC's current heat parade. I agree with that aspect you mentioned an hour ago that we may see a burst of sorts if we suddenly mix out a vaguely coherent lowest layer. Like yesterday ...

uhp 95

94

mm 21.5 C should get one to 39 C if the mixing hgt's to 850 sigma. The adiabat stops at 1000 ( you know this..), 36 C on the skew t log p diagram, but then the 1000 to absolute surface slopes to the right for 2 to 3 C (typically) in a fair expectation. That's about a buck-2 ... when you don't get outflowed overnight causing hard to prove lag holding you down LOL

This is what it's like around here when it comes to tracking big heat I've come to find over the years. It's like the 2026 Red Sox: they always find a way to lose. Then they'll sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series. That's like when we're supposed to be 88 but we get a 97 - amazing but ultimately not amazing. I knew this in my partial wakened state overnight .. that those gentle rains and barely audible thunder rumbles were gently destroying the heat extremes today. Figured

I'm thinking that boat sailed when that outflow came throughout overnight -

Looks like DP crash into the 60s where the Ts are in the mid 90s or approaching that.

For now...here's the winners

I suppose it's possible that those regions unperturbed by overnight scrubbing of the heat staging, like down around the megalopolis ...will cap earlier, and we may be squeeze up as late party guests. Yeah...could I mean it's 92 to 93 prior to noon, which is hot enough. Yesterday we were in the upper 80s ( I think ) around now, and managed a lot of 95 to 97s in a 3 pm surge .. so if we can tack on 7 to 10, will be in 100. interesting

It's nasty but we got screwed if people are enthusiastic about heat trophies. The big kahuna heat is NY Metro to EWR and western L.I.... most NWS sites tucked in there are 98 to 103 at 11:30 am!!! BOOM us...? hot, but pedestrian so far. I really think that weird surviving convection - that by synoptic convention should not have... - sending that outflow overnight basically ruined us for contention in this thing for today. Tomorrow may have a shot with unperturbed overnight heat setting stage better.

Wow (bold) ...they're 88 now

To some degree.. yes. Let's not blame all, but it's a partial albeit increasingly observed state of affairs. That's why telecon prompting mechanisms have been invented, like "RONI", btw. Which stands for Relative Oceanic Nino Index. It is considering the present anomalies surrounding. etc..

Immensely complicated question... The simplest explanation may cross eyes but ... no, it doesn't directly effect that, but does indirectly. lol Typhoons out there have a correlation with winter pattern that is more realized than in the summer. So there's a seasonal constraint on the statistics. In the winter, ... typhoons that "re curve" into the N. Pacific, dump their latent heat into the jet and this curls into the mid Pac ridge, which then can serves to +augment that amplitude, which in turn effects on the orientation of the planetary wave spacing and amplitude down stream over North America. That's the simplest way to put it. If the typhoon does not re curve and goes into the SE Asian continent, it's less clear if/how it's latent heat fluxes into the mid latitude. It's like smearing toxin on one's skin as opposed to a sting that injects the venom directly in as a creepy metaphor. The latter, re curving into the jet/N. Pacific sting, thus makes sense that a more coherent effect on the synoptics is observed. The subtropical jets are indirectly related to all this, by way of complex larger scale wave mechanics. Leave it at that...but when the N Pac ridge is bulging, that tends to improve the polar branch/-EPO phase... this tends to trigger a compensating lowering height field underneath and that can assist sub-tropical jet identity. There has to be a split in the hemisphere gradients for better STJ performance, in general. Where there are two differential axis ( latitudes), steep zone near 30-35N, and then another near the lower Ferrel latitudes. The subtropical jet formulates along the gradient of the 30-35 N, and then runs up polarward to deliver WAA patterns into mid latitude cyclongenetic fields. ... Whilst the polar branch of the westerlies ( what we consider to be the main kahuna jet) formulates along the other steeper gradient of the lower Ferrel... In the heart of winter that's average around 45 or 50 N. But dips, and when it does ...these split hemispheres create the bigger bombs. That's why NINO hemisphere winters, albeit not always as cold as winter geese prefer, tend to generate the more active/higher frequency cyclone traffic. This whole model, however, is getting harder and harder to cleanly differentiate in observation, as the ongoing CC is also altering circulation manifolds. We've seen NINO-esque circulation motifs during NINAs and vice versa, do to these changes, with more frequency. This is making the distinctions less clean ... and consequently, some aberrant pattern correlations have been observed. In the summer, the planetary wave spacing becomes less coherent with more eddy breakaways and pattern distinctions uncoupled to the larger known teleconnector pathways. This is because the wave lengths of Long Waves have shrunk, because of a homogenized - or approaching the same state - gradients between the Ferrel and subtropical latitudes. So the typhoon antics of the western Pac are less important to this overall concept because there's no longer the same machinery.