Typhoon Tip

You're one of the one's that can relate to my interest in monitoring heat in the summer ... heh, I mean shit. It's not like it's part of weather, huh But 12z EPS mean, centered on June 9, came in yet a little more impressive with the over top heat look. Weather this is a flash (pun intended), a heatwave per se, or evolves to something else are obviously notwithstanding at this range, but it's being monitored.

haha... I'd say at least not totally sucking prison balls at shiv point -

64, mainly sun sky with post-card cu utterly opposite condition to this morning, whence it was 48 and light rain.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DY-BOhHuChX/?igsh=MTZweDlmcG9iOTlwcQ==

I'm wondering about the magnitude given to some recent obs. I mean it's not hugely scientific to say this, but it just doesn't feel like it's coming on in any particularly mean looking way. Historic anything in this business, tend to get busy real quick. It's not phenominalogically consistent to speed bump with so WWB's and like below Fwiw, this coarse looking product from CPC shows the sub warm plume as shrinking - not sure that's helping the intent to get this to super, less very strong.

I'd go ahead and cancel all outdoor plans and go with stable cool/wet weather - it fits the unrelenting persistence to seek out and destroy any free hours that collective civility would have any chance to experience. Don't fight it

getting your clearing down here finally up to 59! woo hoo

That all aside ... heat, where are we and what - What was once merely suggestive is now ... call it 'modestly' impressive. A signal for heat along 100 W/mid latitude continent. This has been in the ensemble clustered means for days -overnight is interesting. The simple version first, if and when this wave function collapses, the heat it containers will unleash and synoptically spread E with the prevailing vector. A hot time for day if not a heat wave. GFS ensemble mean centered on June 9 ... notice the +AO, too - The EPS and GEPs are in principle the same, with the same implications. The trough sag on the EC is legit... some 1/3 members refuse to admit to this [probable] evolution. The ridge NE of HA over the lower GOA is a favorable wave geometry for positive height anomaly around Michigan - heat wave for them... But the +AO/+NAO, ongoing, suggests that spreads E. I'm noticing even in the operational runs there are occasional Sonoran release signals, an implication whenever there is ridge-trough-ridge signal between 130W and 90W/mid latitudes. The operational versions are definitely toying with something of a warmer recovery... They are not taking advantage of the expansion this aloft gives them, but the polar branch appears to finally be decaying. That's precarious. At least in so far as what all this means for us N-E of the Mason Dixie, where we've been stuck in a troughy/cold purgatory for several weeks. As an side, despite the heat wave in May, May had trouble actually averaging above normal ... Logan ( ironically) did best in that regard, but interior climo sites were decimals of average, despite having days in the 90s. That means that the weight of the month was colder -statistics sometimes lie like that. Like Scott and I have noted several times in the past, we just go bonkers when we do get warm, and this is stressing/offsetting the perception of a cooler sensible journey.

Actually Brian this is meteorologically interesting ( I guess...). I was looking at the GFS 850 mb charts more closely...you can see this pivoting S ... maybe it's like the opposite of yesterday. Nice through noon, than a piece of shit, today's the mirror of that.

we'll see... I suspect you're seeing the motion on sat, en masse going SW? but this is a legit cold insert behind the weakly defined low moving E of Cape Ann out there over the lower GOM. Already you can see strata streets filling in over Fryeburg and up along the steppe of Maine's interior. I'm curious to see how how much 'clearing' takes place. i'll give it to you though that the day is long and we spend longer time in apex solar so ... there'll be some thermodynamic processing

Yeah and looking at sfc obs together with morning sat loopage, there's a reinforcing diffused BD slipping SW through the region this early morning

twisted dark humor aside, we're in some kind of fractal this spring for this dog shit cold pooling (recurrent leitmotif). If it's not synoptic in scale, it's this shit above, even more so relative to our climate - which is bad enough for this in the first place.

this is probably that 15th time this spring I've pondered how in the hell civility decided to footprint this cold atmospheric sewage cistern of planetary region ... It's gonna be 70 in Maine after morning coffee while we're being strapped down in Labrador's rape shack

Couple of borderline needling OCD observations about tomorrow ( Tues) I would argue that frontal like PP passing thru the region early tomorrow morning is not a cold front. It's more of a warm front, nondescript but qualitatively. It's unusual that the pressure rises behind a warm front, but not impossible. Most importantly, the 850 mb temperatures are rising several degrees over today and tonight, having flooded over lower Ontario upstream, sourcing from the ridge nodal block N of Lake Superior, and about to spill SE - said boundary-like feature demarcates. Tomorrow probably pushes against the ceiling of perfection. It can't actually get there, because ... easy philosophy, perfection is unknowable. What is a 10::10 for any given consensus, is likely to have contrived flaw(s) by TauntonBlizzard2013 ... Or, is thematically operative in a dry dystopian horror film by Michael Bay's buddy, Damage In Tolland. Excluding these fringe tarnishing efforts/aspect, tomorrow will be a text book down slope study case. 800 mb to surface flow is unidirection to the sfc, transporting out of that upstream warmth ... at about 15kts up top to barely noticeable at the surface/valleys. DPs are not appreciably high so thermal absorption into water vapor is low. The mixing layer may stop at 900 or 875 mb, because of +d(PP)/DVM on-going, but this compresses to go along with the d-slope katabatic action. I would go above the 77 MAV/MEX mean. I guess to be fair... there may be some pancake tendencies around noon, but that may be transient while mixing out.

It's in the mid 70s as near by as Pennsylvania. Looping the satellite and looking at various obs give the allusion to sawing off summer with this NW deep layer band saw. Watching the sat loop you can just hear the whir of blade. anyway... looking at MEX 12z surprisingly warm this week around the KBDL-KFIT-KASH arc, within which I'm located... 78 Tues, then 80s or around 80 into next weekend... Maybe there's an end to this coldest area relative to climo on the planet bullshit.

We had a gusty shower with a single rumble of thunder. Trees were leaning a bit with heavy sheeting rain. Temp 72 to 56 ... brrrr Back up to 60... then another lighter shower and it's 58. Nice morning. Lousy afternoon. still winter.

Sweet! ...Make Kevin NYC thread's problem -

Car top frost overnight. Might be the latest I've personally seen that

He spent equal time in that discussing how the block was causing it to be cold It was even. He may be all those things you say he is but he was fair in that particular whatever it is.

Probably the June layer Lol

yeah, this thing's cold physics were modeled to be very nucleated the whole time. I mean, the hydrostatic thickness plumbs something like 15 dm spanning 6 hours and return almost fully. 552 -- 538 -- 552 I'm surprised we did not get more thunder in the region but I did see a lot more lightning detection up around the ST L/ BTV region last evening so I guess -

yeah...the more I look at this now that it's now-cast and 22/hind-sighting, this is a back door. I realize folks will argue because anytime someone makes a suggestion that interrupts one's formulating narrative on social media, there is recreational blow back if not outrage - some people are just triggered. But clearly, that explanations atones best for the oddities of this thing's total deep layer circulation behavior/history. If one were to imagine a conversation with a ruddy old denizen of western Nova Scotia he would say that about 12 hours or so prior to our so-called backdoor phenomenon down here, they get just about exactly what we are getting now. It's because the short wave impulse moves overhead up there, and sends the boundary down the coast. Our unique topography then beckons it along it's journey and it doesn't stop until the Va Capes sometimes but ...that's secondary after the process has been triggered. In this case, we're just getting the impulse moving along an anomalously path from upper VT to SE MA as opposed to typically moving E QUE to NS.

Just looking at sat ... it does seem there's a defined clearing line on the N side of a narrow "CCB" tube that pressing S pretty fast. Looks like PWM to Brian type axis within the hour, and then down here Rt 2 say ... I dunno 10:30 11 o'clock? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It was about 1.5 to 2 hours of leaner gusts here and the last 1/2 hour we've stepped off the throttle. I was standing there in the kitchen making joe and looking out the window at it all ... you know, if one did not know any better they'd probably just think this was some backdoor on steroids. We were actually partly sunny here at dawn, with not much wind motion at all. These cold strata claw streets started moving overhead, and out of nowhere the trees started straining pretty abruptly shortly there after. We've had misty cool rains and the temperatures fallen from 52 at that time, to now 42. That acceleration with low cloud invasion and temp jolt ... it just 'seems' backdoorsian more than anything else. Yes yes we have a cyclone ...compact little fucker. Fascinating really, as it buzz saws it's way through the morning skies. It's odd tho regardless to pick up a CCB from this kind of entry. Typically, Nor'easters formulate OV transfer, or Miller As etc... Up under. This thing coming down on the NNW-->SSE azimuth is in fact an analog cousin to a S/W passing just N of CAR sending a boundary SW down the coast. It's just that the deep layer trajectory happened to take the S/W along a farther SW track ...roughly BTV to BOS

It's almost June... I get what your saying ... There is a tendency, pretty easily detectable one in this social media that occurs. First time someone senses less evening daylight on Aug 10 or so ... up, pack it in... it's over. The autumn one is the worst. Circa October 20 and the air smells like snow at 6:49 am. There's definitely an increase frequency in digging up extended model illustrations behavior that has blue paint - like we're supposed to take them seriously from behind a guise of just kidding. As well as a generalized improvement in the index. In this case... I don't believe anyone's "rushing seasons" if they sense some recent anachronistic behavior. Big words aside ... this is more than less unusual .. And it is tied (most likely...) to attribution/science on the matter, particularly with how CC has been changing circulation modes vs seasonal climatology. There are numerous papers on the matter already. This isn't just farmer John lobbing conjecture from a bad day out on the back 40.