Typhoon Tip

It looked that way to me... I haven't followed up on that so no bullets. However, I did look over the 100 thru 10hPa for temperature plumes and there were some at the time. It was not clear this was an en masse downward propagation. There was, however, a geopotential bulge that was splitting around the SE U.S. ridge... and that was collocated 100hPa level showing the flow moving around that curved "obstruction" I'm personally believing these exception warm burst are probably extending the tropopausal heights in some cases as an increasing phenomenon. This, by the way, isn't the first time I've seen this in the past 10 years. warm domes that are bumping those exceptional altitudes from below. interesting. This happened in late autumn last year, too - there was a lot of meme blizzard about SSWs that didn't pan out.

not sure if this old Intellicast ptype is right but if so... it's cat paws or wet snow or virga

There is 0 irony there. One needs to think and start to understand more intimately, the rudimentary knowledge and associations about how these geological system work. When you doubt ... from a position uneducated, the information and raw data that is coming from that type and scale of sophistication, just keep in mind that the same scientific processes you doubt are how and why you can even type doubts on your phone or pc

Yeah, I like that Ray ... Thing is, I don't think the distinction is a trivial matter - if we're going to try and understand how these the end of the world scenarios, we can't really be calling a convention trident missiles, icbms ... lol actually not so funny when the U.S. is choking off China's oil..

Those are all warm index complexions..

LOL ... dude, are paraphrasing me ...ha seriously, I have been using that metaphor for this for the last 10 years. rock on!

no I recall you mentioning that last september. I nailed the early blocking/front loaded winter. I'm not 'taking credit' for that, as it was a pot shot sort of sardonic intimation in a drive-by paragraph in one of the seasonal outlook threads. However, I did clearly state that the best hope for winter expression this year would be earlier/front loaded, with a colder time of it. I also stated in said paragraph that I thought we'd be flowering by February. How did that work out!? haha. so..., (A + F)/2 = C grade. i really don't give a shit. 'sides, the Feb call was definitely not deferential to any method other than thinking it's hard to get DJF end-to-end cold in this latter era of CC so may as well blast the late winter away. oops We did not have a propagating SSW this year. It's pretty clear if one looks at the geopotential height history at the 500 through 50 hPa sigmas, those warm bulges came from beneath. The only reason I haven't been more vocal about it is because .... what difference does it make? Either way resulted blocking which established super synoptic CCBs into N/A. We've had more loading pattern variances this year than I can count.

Meh... not really. Factually, that product covers the 99 years between 1901 and 2000, only. Factually, the compendium of science in climate change is based upon Math, Physics, and Chemistry, beginning ~ the late Proterozoic geologic eon, which covers the last 480+ million years. Relative to that range, there are changes now that exceed the change rates that have occurred at any time during the last half billion years. However, if the 2nd paragraph is true - which it is cannot be controverted with any veracious objectivity, than the first paragraph has confidence as to its significance. Understanding and knowing that is purely a function of whether the person is smart enough or not. It's far in a way more likely that the planetary system is lagging behind the change being forced within it, too fast. In other words, it is still responding. Doing so in 2023 like surges is troubling to put it nicely. The next surge in wholesale planetary temperature ( ie. 2023) may not be a single degree. NO one saw the first surge... ALL opinions on the next are meaningless, until the former lag, and the latter surge, have been explained by Math, Physics, and Chemistry. The data recency discussion is apples and oranges to ^. Conflating concepts and utility.

Heh ... yeah. Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, right or wrong. I just provide the data, as other's do, as it arrives. For me, people can take or leave it - because they are also entitled to do that, too. It just is what it is.

mm... Last time the ENSO mode began to shift into a similar range as that which is forecast now ... the entire planet surged a clad degree C, unilaterally, everywhere, air, sea and air-sea. The whole planet That should have really sent more shutters than it did through every inhabitant of this World. Probably, the shear scale of that in March of 2023 was so immense it simply escapes the common ability to dimensionalize the implications, thus crickets... Either way, whether this species cares to care, can, or won't aside, mathematically that maens there is large climate uncertainty, one that unfurled right before our eyes... one that could do so again. And the changes now as we see switch into a warmer mode of ENSO ... I think it behooves everyone, everywhere, to consider that even RONI may not be sufficient as an approach. Raising an entire planetary system by a full deg C is so vastly beyond a single ENSO mode's typical correlation, it forces the conclusion that ENSO's relevancy is increasingly subsumed

This looks like a pretty typical ANA blizzard at 3,000 feet

Doesn't appear much of that impressive rad display over eastern PA to eastern NY is actually reaching the ground?

Right smack in the middle of Ineedarealitycheck's expectation for winter's return... 'nough said. heh... yeah it's D11 so ... zip confidence. Altho, it's fair enough to say that there is an emerging warm signal beyond the 20th in the indices. My personal feel on things is that winter is over. We may get a 'spring snow' at some point, but I don't see that happening for the next 10 days, and beyond that... I get increasingly more soured by the implications of CC more and more every passing year. When combining that with post equinoxian solar irradiance ... doesn't send my sixth sense into any cold feel

OH pleezy weezy with sugar on top make this happen

it seemed to stop as the back edge of the mids finished exit... via cinema. As the loop had pass over, it ate back NE a little It's really open sky sun here with light winds. On March 11, it's cheating and making the 46 ... actually, just bounced to 48 seem like a pretty good bargain for the time of year

Yeah, it's 46 here with nearly full sun this hour even up here in the deeper cool air; water is again running out of the pack's lining the roads so melt continues.

I'll tell ya ...having the sun now winning over the diminishing cloud coverage is helping to offset that rude intrusion of colder air. Ironically, it cloudier where the cold is deeper up N, and shittier sky where it's SW of this boundary. Weird to have it clear where the boundary itself, is It's 45 here... not "nice" per se, but relative to what it could be on March 10 that is nice. Not ungrateful. Plus, the wind behind this boundary isn't appreciably gusting and so forth, so there's some nape quality remaining. It does seem that the momentum of the front is slowed.

I remember that as the cold that was gripping the continent E of 110 W wrapped up into that whole trough and exited along with it. Cold was over and the storms were done. If that's what it takes, ...let's do it !

There is nothing false in intimating that the risk for wintry event, next week, "shit the bed" in the models. That's essentially true. It may be fair to say that an event could return in modeling? However, there are other indicators suggesting that those odds are pretty long. It's just that there are those that don't like the circumstance at hand, much less when someone iron pans the reality. They read it, ... they react. Usually by picking apart specific word choice to tailor a some way to make it wrong. Heh. okay

I saw that.. .interesting high based towers

Not in this conversation but ... I sense that depending on March as a wintry month has gradually lessening support in reality -