Typhoon Tip

Definitely a colder complexion returned to the guidance overnight. There were some odd solutions there for a couple cycles when considering the principle component/indexes. Likely it was just typical pattern change guidance games all along. We see this going the other way in April where the indexes suggest the seasons first big warm up ... but then the GFS wonders off in a spontaneous pita-flop day dream in the other direction. So in this situation .. I'm wondering if we might end up in a split flow type during those first couple of weeks of Dec. There's likely to verify that large scale -WPO/-EPO changing of the guard over the Pacific, but there's been some persistence in the various ensemble clusters to pint the geopotential anomalies along 120 W. Typically that results in flow bifurcation over the Pac NW, with the N resulting stream being a cold loader flow spanning across Canada, while the S branch meanders through the S Rockies... This can be good for overrunning storm types. If the blocking features lose latitude if/where they set up ...that may trigger more +PNA response underneath than we are presently seeing - whole different ball game. But the idea here is an seasonal dump ( we'll see if all this results in more as the times near) of polar-arctic cold at least down to 40 N across the Continent. As far as particularly dailies and what storms form, if/where those do or not... etc etc... to vague for the time being to make much of any play call on that right now.

Shhhhh My internal monologue sarcastically said something similar when I saw that run... But it looked less coherent with the EPO aspects... it's like it dropped below the threshold ( probably in error by doing so - ) where it's no longer forcing down stream over the continent by being too weak. That's why it has semblances of the NE Pac mode but dwindles. Goes without saying .. we don't sweat it beyond D7.

That's an ugly Euro run... It's also a fantastic continuity break for a span of time outside of D7 so meh. But it's attempting a -EPO with zero discernible pattern implications for S of 40 N across the continent. that'd be a neat trick.

26 here already

That’s always possible in fast flow but those look spaced reasonably well. It also helps that they’re both flat waves and probably more middling intensity

I don’t understand what the big deal is with the Epstein files anyway… you’re not gonna be seeing the real ones anyway. The only reason why there’s any kind of impetus to release those files finally is because they’re finally done redacting them – obviously

It's more the 29th ... but yeah. It's too low confidence to know about track and amplitude - the latter's probably too strong in this run though. Might be the first multi-region/full synoptic event of the season; don't need it to be heading for the 980s in order to do it. This is open wave NJ model low. They can bomb so we can't through the idea away entirely, but given to the progressive nature ... a middling system fits better.

Fwiw or not ... I'm not a big fan of the MJO unless it's in constructive interference with the WPO mode...or it has a tough time propagating convection out of the marine subcontinent. It has to do that or there's no latent heat flux --> dispersion forcing to the modulate the subtropical coupling to the mid latitudes ..etc. Right now, the RMM shows the wave struggling on the 6 wave number region, probably also because it's negatively interfering with the W. Pac/La Nina. To me that's like a "predictive firewall" ... we'll see what happens if that wave collapse tendency is real. If it is not, then the way may indeed escape the W. Pac gauntlet later in 7 ... The 7 composite is actually a cool anomaly from the NP-GL-NE regions... and then it would be in positive interference in the Americas in 8-1-2. So it's like a yes-no-yin-yang- neg-pos along this wave's progression. I figure the WPO/EPO signal is precedent (there first) ...the MJO arriving late is liable to get damp some. The question is ... does it punch through. I'm aware the RMM has it going nuts in some of the guidance types way out there in late 7. The MJO is not a pattern forcer... it's a pattern modulator. And the latter depends on the whether neg or pos interference. It needs to be positive

But again ... it's may be splitting hairs. If there's -WPO/-EPO through other means, you're ending up in the same consequence.

That's about right.... it takes about 20 days ( three weeks)... I've shown this before but here. This example was 2004. Text book high altitude intrusion event, then nodal mass down welling with 3 or so week lag prior to AO forcing/'blocking' This example actually first became evident over Xmas week prior to Jan 1 ... and the AO crashed by the 20th.

the other clue ... if this pattern change, which we're at t-minus 6 or 7 days from actively reconstructing, was preceded and ultimately coupled to a canonical SSW, the latter would have taken place by the first week of the month. There was nothing...

I don't like the fact that it isn't (first) emergent in the 10 hpa ... This appears to be up-welling from a very strong constructive interference at mid and upper level troposphere between Asia and the N. Pacific. I'm not sure it matters? ha. I mean, whether it's a SSW --> down-welling in the canonical sense and total behavior, or... some sort of fantastic ridge resonance that's bulging the disk from the bottom, the end result may end up with the same consequence... You get blocking and jet distributions S of normal PV latitudes ...and that in this case (sometimes it affects/offloads in Europe/Eurasia preferentially) modeled to favor our side of the hemisphere for a cold mass delivery/jet. It's an interesting question... but if you look at the GFS's 10hpa, no clue there's a warming event. All SSWs in the monitoring history going back to the late 1970s start between 1 and 10hpa, and then down well. This appears to be a "bulging" event. Similar to what Kevin lacks on his anniversary nights...

I've noted the two pulse -EPO behavior in the ensembles. The operation Euro is an amplified outlier with the warm-roll back in between those episodes/-EPO bursts. I'm not inclined to believe it is necessarily correct. The other aspect I'd keep in mind that the models (all of them) tend to go a bit too amplified in the mid-sized spatial events. Not sure that dependable bias expresses as coherently at hemispheric scale ... just something to keep an eye on.

12z oper GFS's 29th NJ model impacter should not be summarily tossed... Not saying it's high confidence - how could I ... But typically the front side wave spaces, while major hemispheric mode changes are underway, are cyclogen active. In principle ...the period of time is okay for activation of storm systems. Way too early to be detailed beyond...

yeah, 19 here. Saturday bottomed out around 29. As I passed by ponds en route to disk golf I noticed ice had crept out about 4 to 6' from the shores, so thin it was gone by early afternoon. Hadn't seen that in recent autumns (I'm the type of nerd that noticed little details like that). Recent Novembers hadn't provided for that intermediate stage in inland ice, but this year hearkens back to that. I didn't venture out this morning but I'm sure at 19 there was probably more than just shore ice.

And then after that, I'm trying to figure out when/if the operational runs start unleashing the goods. With that massive -WPO relay into a -D(EPO) going on at the end of next week, so far it's just a castrated gorilla cold wave ... Yeah, I've been cautioning folks that we may not have to wait until the 2nd week of Dec for something wintry to break in our favor given the modalities from about bird day+ We've benefited ( though the actual daily anomalies may only vaguely show - ) from a -NAO pulsation in the foreground and will continue to do so, then relay that index' collapse into the NE Pac changes. That's not quite the same circumstance as going from a neutral field to a -EPO. This latter tends send the southerly gale up the coast but we're idiosyncratically different when there's antecedent west limbed -NAO.

39/20 in full sun ... it's a winter atmosphere today at least. If there were a snow pack in situ and upstream, we'd probably be stuck closer to freezing.

Looks to me (at this time and based upon recent guidance metrics together with knowledge/history) like we spend a week in a warm anomaly due to the initial shock of negative EPO burst sending a negative implosion down 110 W, but then as typical… natural progression of events will have that spreading east and south as the long wave re-lengthens - that times during the first week on Dec. If things go according to plan, then an introduction of winter probabilities in the first week of December isn’t ridiculous

Warm up out ahead of the continental crash ... right on schedule. Question is, how much so. The amplitude can vary on that. But just in principle, it's not unexpected. The climatology for going from +(WPO/EPO) --> -(WPO/EPO) causes a large scale 'seesaw' down stream over N/A. Heights first crash down the spine of the Rockies ~ latitudes in response to upstream initial ridge blossoming. Some of which is non-linear - which means forcing you cannot see ( longer popsicle headache). But that initial reconstruction is not a stable wave structure at large scales. Eventually the wave length opens up and the eastern end of the -(WPO/-EPO) ... becomes more neutral EPO/+PNA... and the cold then floods throughout Canada, spilling in either a big course load, or a series of dumps into the NP-Lakes-NE... This all trengthens the b-c ambience from Colorado to the M/A, whence winter storms form... Hint: the WPO remains in negative ... that's your seed for reloads. Or not...sometimes all of this is a one time deal. Sometimes you get Feb 2015's of 1977s at the other end and more persistence. Anyway, this is probably what's always caused the Indian Summers throughout history. It's probably what caused the January thaws, too. But they are not sustainable; the above described typical progression of events elucidates why those kinds of 'intermission warmups' prove transient. You know, ... it's all a bit like tsunamis behavior. First the shore water retreats seaward, aka Indian Summers ... January thaws... etc, then it comes surging back and over compensates in the other direction: winter expresses.

The changes as we get past the Giggedy holiday are top latitude down ... The -WPO/-EPO totality is a big dawg hemispheric reordering. It actually originates from the the retrograde of the NAO across the Canadian archipelago ... to reposition into the Siberian-Alaska arc. That evolution drills a negative teleconnector down the Spine of the Rockies, first. This causes an upward height burst over eastern continental mid latitudes. - the Euro is too dramatic with that. - the GFS looks suspiciously like not enough. Obviously this is all waaaaaay the fuck out at the temporal event horizon ... beyond which there be dragons! Buuuut, at a base climate/statistical level, if these teleconnector prognostics are correct with the higher latitude blocking reconstruction taking place, turning warm for 2 or even 5 days whatever over eastern N/A mid latitudes is solid fit. It's a matter of how much or little.

Longer range teleconnectors like Dec 1-5th for winter implications

Not just being cynical/snarky … I can imagine that discussion going something like subscriptions are down. Maybe followed by a sentiment that hints at vexing, “nobody reads” Writing as an industry is down.

yeah I added a couple examples of in-betweeners. Feb 2002 10" in 3.5 hours along the Pike E of ORH and throughout Boston proper, from a flat vort max rippling through. It was so flat that there was but a west wind while it was happening. Forced NWS to go from a partly sunny with flurries forecast to a Winter Storm warning cut-in now-cast adjustment in a scrambling media effort. That's definitively showing that timing crucial variables can generate fun stuff and not be well modeled. Then there was Dec 23 1997 ...one of my favorites. It's close to my heart because I was interning with Harvey Leonard that semester, and I remember telling him the day before that I was suspicious about the setup. The ( then ) ETA FOUS grid, ( a dead art form) had a vertical profile over Logan something like +2|+1|-3 ... which corresponds to 34.5 F at 980 mb, 33 F at 900 mb, at 27 at 800. The VV column was like +22 ... whaa Uh, that's a pig ton of implied upward motion. Underneath which it was dropping over a half inch of QPF. All rain didn't add up in my mind. Should have no problem having fall rates of snow over come that gossamer lower warmth. Yet, NWS was forecasting cold rain inside of 128, with 1-3" of wet glop in the Worcester Hills. At a larger synopsis, there was a small but important +PP sitting over N Maine while this event was approaching in the guidance - this was showing up as damming in the surface pressure contours. I told him more snow. So Acton Ma, and I awoke around 7:30 or 8 am to slate gray blue tinted light and flurries at 19 F... umm. What happened was it remained like James Webb Telescope clear until about 5:15. This allowed the region to radiate with exquisite proficiency, generating in situ pasty cold - probably deeper than machine or man anticipated. Then, just before dawn, the cirrostratus leaf edge abruptly advanced over and cold capped. 800 mb ( mind you ) was already less than 0C, and there we were; we had an integrated gelid thermal profile with no way to switch the column. I set my coffee down, most curious what the radar must be showing, but just then my primitive Captain Kirk flip phone captured my attention, "You have 14 new messages". It was this guy I knew that worked at Aldin Electronics( long defunct ) - he was in the EPERB department, which was a weather monitoring tech for marine. First and foremost, he and I were in a dead heat for weather's dweebiest contest and the mother fucker beat me to it. At his urgency I opened the radar and it was 60 dbz returns over an area twice the size of fuckum Rhode Island over eastern CT up to the Pike. That globular region was surrounded by 30 to 50s. Yellows and fiery oranges you'd see in Great Plains MCCs. The deep green leading edge was just then arriving overhead. "OH shit!" I leaped to my feet and rush to the window; the flurries abruptly had indeed become steady snow. Tiny little uniform aggregates reducing the visibility abruptly. "That isn't just bright banding or sleet", I thought. "Oh my god" An hour later, visibility was 0 not 1000 feet where ASOS might only say so. It was 0 Could not see the tree a mere 40 feet outside the window into the front yard. So okay ...maybe visibility was technically 20 feet. Beyond that short scale the air was just a steely abyss. I saw 7" fall in a single hour in that as the thunderstorm colored rad blob moved over head. And the snow texture never deviated. The temperature did rise over the course of the event but never rose above 27. A 16.5", most of which fell in 4 hours, locked down two days before Xmas. Yeah, we pulled a white one that year! Straight down. No wind. So dense that there was no sound except the gritty crumbling of tiny aggregates shattering down your shoulders, in 0 visibility. I'd never seen anything like that. It was unique. I've seen 0 or close to 0 visibility on several occasions. Wind was usually a part of those. This had nothing but a single expression: choke snow fall rates. You know ... we have this expression in our vernacular, "positive bust" These, like the February 2002 one at the intro, and this one, they are too extreme for that. It's probably more apt to say they were "blind busts" as in... no fuckin' clue ahead of time. This particular one, Dec 23 1997, actually dumped 23" in N. Middlesex Co, also ... all of which occurred in 4-6 hours. Usually as a weather dweeb ...I would have been put off by the notion that I missed the max, but given to shear specter in surreal fuck-up for better forecasting ...I was just too happy to notice.

Yeah maybe. It's a tweener system. It's in between teleconnectors, wedged in that timing between more major or obvious signals. If it is even real, confidence will come down to handling the daily noise. I mean, when it is resulting/connected to larger mass field change, confidence in actually having 'something' on the charts can be assessed at longer leads... But that thing's pretty invisible to the indices. Tweeners are real though. They can sting. "Little critters that bite" are tweeners. Or like the 1997 Dec 23 snow bomb storm was a tweener. I saw 16" from that one.

You know ... speaking of diatribes ( lol ) ... wrote this paragraph in that missive, "At this stage of our species evolution we are brilliant enough to suspect if not outright predict calamity, yet too stupid to believe those visions ... Immediate gratifications and/or preexisting interests that have to be suspended in lieu of what those visions might suggest, becomes a conflict that won't be resolved until people see the death, and feel the pain." and it's too generalized. What's really going on is that a tiny fraction of living humans are brilliant enough to suspect if not outright predict calamity, but they cannot effect change because they are limited by the insurmountable masses of population that are too stupid to believe those visions ... There is a pyramid ignoramus dilemma. It's always been a problem for science that a single person .. or small constituency, discovers something huge, capable of truly revolutionizing an understanding of reality - necessarily so if we are all to be 'real' - but they are at the tip founded upon generations of tradition and functioning, unwitting false belief systems.