Typhoon Tip

Kinda interesting. Not sure if there's any actual predictive usefulness to this philosophy outlined below, but could we be setting up 2026 as another ...holy shit, didn't see that comin' global leap in temperature? This is the current winter escape curve in the southern hemisphere ( provided by https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=sh ). It's presently the warmest October on record down there? That's equivalent to late February up here. So then heading through their "March" and "April" ...when solar really is accelerating ... where is this curve destined? (dark rust) Intuitively/simple additive thinking might be setting up a high launch pad for the world, whence the N. Hem. spring of 2026 starts dumping in its typically warm quota ( due to having greater land integral).. The ongoing tendency that our immediately ensuing winter will end up above normal overall (not compensating in the averaging) notwithstanding. Just some wondering here -

echoing the general sentiment... but, TC entanglement was never likely. It was in fact unlikely (... but even a long shot can give the addicts a dopamine pop. Ha ha). The emerging consensus explains why that is. No issues with letting that go. With that said, there is still a signal for an EC impact/ Nor'easter, regardless of those noisy GGEM solutions. Mainly upper M/A and NE this go. In fact, the GGEM got hugely distracted somehow and ventured off from ... every form of modelling technology I can find last night and isn't used. Wildly divorced from consensus. Meanwhile, the GFS and Euro being well below 980 mb under deep forcing kinematics, fits both ens means, and the numerical telecon deltas. Circumstantially, whilst there's lingering +PP hanging over N of Maine like that. Heh, bit of a high surf/coastal flood enthusiasts 'wet' dream (see what I did there) Also, a lot of rain over terrain enhancing along the inevitable CCB axis. Kind of a 'scary' setting for Halloween

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-overshooting-15c-climate-inevitable-chief.html

12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ... Here's the 180 hour regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own.

seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators. See? all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it -

I beat y'all to that ha

This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 ).... an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night.

can you imagine Narragansett Bay .... ho man

I don't think you did... I mean, there's a non-zero chance that thing gets sucked into ...whatever the Euro's selling with that -NAO trough. This becomes a general Met concern Which, by the way folks ... -NAOs, particularly those over the western limb of the domain, which this 10 day period is exerting, is a correlation found with TCs ( in general ..) affecting the EC. I'm not fully convinced that some sort of hybrid or fusion deal can't evolve. Low probability, but it's not outside the envelope, either It's numerically/telecon Sandy like in some ways... but not exactly modeled as an analog in the synoptic handling at this time. As far as the upper tier category stuff... my intuition's telling me pump the breaks on that with the hostility in the region, and the fact that a trough pulling it out of the CAG region may induce that motion prior to the TC availing of superior deep layer circulation mode. The GFS has a fuller integrated TC and that's why it's initiating that escape so fast. The Euro apparently keeps it less coupled to the mid and u/a, so it drifts west and then gets a chancy window to RI ... I put that lower probability. But, I don't give a ratz ass about being wrong, either. ha Just the way I see.

heh too much shear. Doesn't matter where it is. NHC indicated a 'few days' of it. maybe we wait -

Meh... we'll see. Shear stress has to diminish, tho. If it doesn't, I 100% disagree.

Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning? ...it's okay. With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipated red-eyed summary efforts coming from NHC lately ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days. That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. Just sayn'

Don't call it 'hyperbolic' then, call it 'childish and drama jerking' ...meh, semantics -

October is 2nd only to April for mornings like this... 49 F slate gray dead calm and wet. Zero redeeming value ... And 2nd place means sometimes it's actually in first.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-super-arctic-climate-weather-extremes.html

Here's what I was more than less describing to Scott awhile ago ...this is the 12z GEFs mean for D9ish. This is a rather deep upper M/A 500 mb anomaly for D9 and it's trending. It's getting hard to imagine this failing to detonate a coastal response This is only October 20s ... if we continue with the type of loading pattern toward mid Novie, the idea of the front heavy winter is showing up in guidance - in fact, you can argue that is the case already ... but we're just seasonally too warm inside a winter scaffold/hemisphere. That's a modest +PNA/-NAO(western limb) tandem

i know, and related to that, I find the inflation idea of our universe' supposed first eras of existence as eerily similar to the 'next is larger' ... like, hmm... just maybe the inflation they're theorizing is actually that size recreation taking place - wild idea perhaps

That's precisely ... I tacitly embedded that idea with 'death as necessity' Life gets passed the 2nd law by reproducing, where the offspring are - it is hoped, but succeeds more than 50% of the time - at least as good a copy as the progenitor. And, because mitosis ( by the way...) via gamete union has a natural ability to factor out imperfections, there's a chance the copies are improvements.

500 mb means from all three are vestigial with +anomalies over eastern Canada/D Straight extending out to the temporal horizon ... meanwhile, the CPC numerical telecon ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png ) is pretty depressed with the index. I'm sorta curious if we see some 'emergence' in the guidance ...where there's some non-linear forcing that they don't respond to until closer in time. And then you get more digging into the M/A. I noticed that is actually tending to happen in the ensemble means for the D8-11 range, with a coastal signal in there time range. Whether or not there's a TC involved in all that is just adding some d-drip value... It's not winter yet but hang in there my fellow addicts ... there's can be interesting aspects to pay attention to. haha

just the NAM so tfwiw but these grid numbers over Logan imply/look modestly impressive for a convection swath tomorrow afternoon...probably E 30020663908 -2599 032218 49170901

cut off d-drip and withdraw syndrome kickin in

tru ... but I was being sarcastic over what that would look like if the lost generational 'normal' alpine october temperatures were in play. hint hint, 50" of snow which i'm not even sure the back whence october 20 is too early even then. but then it wouldn't be as funny.

just imagine if there was no global warming

Fermi Paradox explanation, incarnate if you ask me. It is a personal hypothesis of mine; in it's simplest preface states, 'the species evolves the ability, and then the ability unwittingly devolves the species'. Which yet even more succinctly equates to, 'species evolution emerges the devolution of the species' Whether there is any veracity to that idea or not, we cannot deny the intuitive suspicion, nor the outright observation of the 'emerging Idiocrasy' phenomenon, and the precarious vision of that state of affairs being in charge of a climate future, nuclear armament future, biological toxicity future ...etc, etc. Maybe human evolution has reached the point whence the Law of Diminishing Returns has kicked it. The law of diminishing returns, often referred to as the law of lessening returns, states that if you keep increasing one factor of production while keeping others constant, the additional output gained from each new unit of that factor will eventually decrease... I mean ... we can see that with a modest interpretation of that we might be observing how more and more provision of resource, both physical or informed, is resulting in less productivity ( perhaps a perversion of "intelligentsia" for this context ). Less is coming back from the people being effected by all that provision. Perhaps that's twisting things too much, but I don't believe so. It's anecdotal, but an example: I've been finding vis-à-vis. more and more with this current version of humanity, when ideas like the above are floated in mixed company, the points and/or abstractions fail to comprehended as readily as they once did ... decades ago. I'm just now old enough to recall water cooler conversations where among the colloquy were sincere head nodders. Now, you get a more gaped jaws under blank stares, followed by a some effacing joke about it being over heads. Maybe in some analog ( if not physical) sense it is similar to entropy growing within the system - I kind of like that actually. Because we learn via formal academia that entropy does in fact gain in every system that exists in nature. Entropy in simplest definition is the measure of disorder in a system. So why would the evolutionary process not have to pay into that universal "cosmological tax" for existence. It is not hard to see how species evolution might ironically lead to devolution. The reason is plainly acceptable, if one understands evolution to begin with, more specifically how it works. Evolution perfects the specie's ability to survive by a transactional relationship between chance mutations during and preceding competition. Those with insufficient mutation, thus lacking skill, don't win. And the trophy? the trophy is not OLED TV's, Buggatti cars, Yaughts and palatial estates, dinners with celebrities ... fortune providing eases of living - in fact, no "eases" even short of that illustrious list of aspiration is part of the trophy - not to nature. In nature, the trophy is the ability to have sex with the best possible partner and give birth to the healthiest possible children, that in turn will carry on the lineage of those competition (and chance) refined genetics. The children of that union thus possess greater and greater prospects to achieve the same... Many generations later, the species has improved. That is what evolution is. Humanity is attempting, unwittingly, to take proxy away from the Darwinian process, and redraw it as "capital Darwinism" - which really isn't sustainable, because it has nothing to do with creating the best version of our species. It's no wonder that now, after the last 200 some-odd years since the Industrial Revolution accelerated capital Darwinism, we find that having done so has procreated all these existential perils. That is also why we necessarily die. Our existence' become receptacles of growing disorder. We call it aging and disease. Some philosophies of medicine list aging AS a disease. But surviving means that our offspring have a better chance to survive for being better equipped. However, they too are ultimately doomed to being receptacles; but their children may in turn be better suited ...and on and so on. Evolution is kind of an eerily genius adaptation to fend off entropy eventually eroding at a system to the point of demise. There's a bit of a catch-22 to all this, where "eases of living" intrinsically lowers competition ( or necessity for the arrival of favorable mutation) stresses, which halts perfecting the system. Attempting to perpetuate the intrinsic vitality of any species, while lowering challenges spanning successive generation, smacks like physically impossible due to the ever growing quotient of disorder; there are no longer needs to improve via adaptation. This is why species - probably - fail once they get to some ceiling of achievements along their legacy, whence feedback lessens returns. That science fiction novel is easy to write. They end up in a figurative cul-de-sac of immensely powerful technological capacity but oops... the Idiocrasy has slipped below the necessary intelligence to responsibly serve as custodian and operator. But... any such Fermi Paradox explanation needs to apply universally. The above essay might intuitively fit humanity. Based upon all available evidence, that is. Perhaps some other species has evolved the "genetics" - if their life form even uses genetics as wee know it ... - to always be compensating for lessening returns ( which otherwise leads to a build up in critical entropy). At least in our case, that's not possible though. But it is hard to imagine an alien evolutionary process that escapes the negative feed-back from lessening challenges of the Darwinian motif - or how. Every aspect of biology in any living organism serves a purpose. Evolution provided that. Fits the biological model that living systems do not sustain cells and organs, etc, that are no longer being used. Everything in an organism is necessary. For earth biology, as far as we can assume human kind being a part ... intelligence was an emergent property of all that. In our case, absolutely necessary for our rise out of primordial obscurity. So, if the 'state of provision' and eases of living get in the way of needed intelligence, where does the intelligence go? Just the last 20 years of recent modernity's surplus in 'how-to' and/or what-you-need-to-know at finger tips with nearly zero challenges, has managed to en masse vote a convicted criminal, harboring a dark triad narcissistic personality disorder ... into a position of self-fulfilling power.

Highly meridianal pattern not being handled well with little in the way of continuity in any guidance