Typhoon Tip

I'll tell ya... the GIS montly/NASA temperature anomaly product for March might be interesting. My hunch is, like every month since October it willl have a relative min situated over mid latitude eastern continent, while it is comparatively warmer to much warmer most everywhere else. I've been posting this product on or around the 10th of the months since, showing this repeating leitmotif to hide CC from Winterwolf hahaha

I prefer to remain non-confrontational... heh Having said that, he did say, "March finished +4 " I'm not sure where he was looking - I could see that happening though because a theme I've been playing with in my posts is that we get modestly warmer than normal monthly means out of colder looking synoptic constructs. It's one of those obfuscating charms of CC. It makes sense. If the d(T) is always positive, that means we're on a slope, so the same synoptic conditions should register at least decimals warmer than the last incarnation. It may be a straw man argument at this point, but I do sense that people rely a bit too much on the old adage, "CC doesn't make it warm today" .... noooo, buuuut, it does mean one should expect it to be warmer than the last time. It's just another subversion thing people that know better than to deny, but can't stand the truth.

huh... Ironic. The PV's showing signs of finally shifting away from 90/60 in these ensemble means toward mid month.

To jbenedet's point ... the operational runs are coherently weaving a warmer tapestry out there beyond this thing. Thursday through the weekend... The cold air intrusion now thru Wednesday alleviates during Thursday. It's not going to wildly surge the other way, but 540 to 552dm hydrostats in a return WSW continental flow and ample post equinoxian sun ... will likely present modestly above normal. The next cold front after doesn't carry nearly the same bite/post cold weight as depicted.

I makes me wonder what the world is capable of delivering around here, if/when the pattern foot actually did flip warm.

Yeah, I'm just open speculating/making conjecture on the BD frequency aspect in that morning joe From a "personal" anecdotal perspective, I've observed more than is normal even for here? Relative to date that is. If we were to do the last 10 days the rest of the way, we'll have clocked 3 to 4 times the normal seasonal loading by June 1. That's a lot ha! I don't disagree about the March numbers though. I snuck in a few edits into that post ... one of which was the jest that (CC + the increasing solar)/2 is skewing matters. These latter factors are creating tension in perspectives over the years, because the patterns are cold typology but we still get nuisance warm anomalies. interesting.

We've had decent springs once in a while over the decades but those are more the exception to the rule. As climate and data empirically show, we more typically suffer these ~ 6-week purgatories between the end of March and early May ... give or take. Some are cold and "that one last chance to snow", along with a bit of questionable perspectives on reality hold outs ... heh, notwithstanding. For those that long for warmth and covet those visions, this year seems particularly annoying so far. What is happening(ed) is a very persistent PV, wobbling around 80..90W/60N up in Canada. So long as that is the case there is going to be an anomalous polar jet around the southern periphery. Having jet streams fixated across S and SE Canada in the means are going to create problems for us to ever warm up prior to June 15 really ... for a much longer discussion of reasons. Just in the past 6 days ...we've observed like 3 different species of BD fronts. N doors, E doors, quasi BDs whose identity lost in a normal door... We may be carrying a positive anomaly in BD even for our spring lorn region, but it's because we have a multi-month ridiculously resonant pattern more typically observed in an average January. If you took the typical January pattern foot, and mapped (CC+ SOLAR seasonal change)/2 over top, you get what we are getting.

I keep having to remind myself it's just the first week of April... It's just a slog, this time of year.

Yeah, I kind of typed ahead of my thoughts there There was a “surge” between the end of February and sometime in May … most of which occurred in March, but in total it was between .3 to .4°C this is may vary by source. I’ve seen the range. But yeah, that took us right to the doorway we do not know we do not want to go thru, apparently The 1.5 critical threshold. At least we’re not respecting it as a species. And that was not supposed to happen so soon. The surge of that spring close the gap at an alarming rate…outpacing predictions by global modeling and scientists by decades; at the time, it was believed it was temporary. So what’s troubling further, or should be… it has yet to go back really. We are as of right now still just about right there - but it’s obviously varies by tenths of a single degree weekly. There was conjecture in the ambit back in 2023 that it probably would settle back after a while. that has not happened. I don’t recall exactly who said it and where it came from but I do recall. Anyway, the details aren’t really that important… my objection is directed at people like that guy making declaratives, particularly ones that are preposterous like that because they don’t fit the mathematics of what’s actually happening in objective reality.

here comes summer ...

Today was much more likened to a BD than the other day... If you loop the hi res vis imagery, you can see this frontal fist punching into the upper M/A and this also jammed through here this morning,

No confidence ... . How in the fuck could anyone take that position when the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023, 0 forewarning ?! And it was not predicted by any agency, man or machine If what you are saying of his, or any other's attitudes akin to it, is true, they're all full of shit frankly. Sorry. I'm not directing this at you ...I've grown tired of hearing these idiots with a veritable podium making declarations that are so clearly arithmetically wrong, if they are frustrating they are embarrassing. NO, until something or some one comes forward as not only having predicted the 2023, "instantaneous Earth detonation degree event" would occur, but precisely and incontrovertibly how and why, logic calls their bluff. They are highly suspect if not unequivocally false.

I guess experimentation is over... CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO (11 Feb 2026)

yeah, 35 and drizzle at 7:30... now 66 here with that vague summer's aroma to the air. I'm wondering if this burst might event make the 7 - 0 It's not just diurnal. It's a warm sector that caught up to the sun by just enough time.

Yeah, we're likely getting east doored big time tomorrow.

oh, shit ... you're still hosed. sorry bro

64 Mostly sun but a few patches of mackerel fractals or whatever those are called here and there. Feels like deep spring. Close enough ... this completes the temp swing absurdity ... 73 the day before yesterday, 34 during the IP yesterday, now probably 67 or so today...

partly to mostly sunny now.. 56 ... probably we touch 61-ish ? anyway, no wind and warm sun it's gone from F- to a C... If can get 64, I'll consider C+ hahaha

Not to be difficult but on April 3 ... high-ish late summer sun equivalency, should it break through ( and it looks on vis loop like it's peeling off like Pope was suggesting ) is going to save the day in my mind. 50 with hot sun... fine. Wind should remain light. Very napey

That's what I'm thinking, too... Mixing is needed and some backside dvm from elevated cv in that band might do it

Mixing is key... The models try to warm sector everywhere S of Brian and including his latitude, which agreed ... at the moment challenges the imagination as how in the hell that can actually happen when looking at larger regional synoptic observations. Take this hi res vis loop, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Virginia-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Notice that wedge of very low level cloud arrow heading into interior VA. That's like a latex paint spill on a highway, imagine cloud-cars are gliding over the top of it. We are underneath that paint spill in this metaphor. In order to scour that out, the sun will help... but mixing is really needed for that to happen. Pure speculation, but I suspect that is why the meso models have been insistently cool as they have been, despite the frontal look of the models ( 18 to 00z later on...). They are telling us that there won't be enough mixing. It's like the warm sector pivots across the top never kissing the surface. Need the cold front to clean house. Tomorrow may actually be better than guidance, particularly if it clears. Ample late summer sun quality rising over a scoured out d-slope flow that isn't CAA crazy might actually make conditions anomalously good relative to having an overtop high pressure again building in from Ontario. Which by they ... - I'm just diatribing in general - odds lean away from observing a real and true wholesale warming over the eastern mid lat continent, if/while that PV continues to its relentless re-establishing presence N-E of Hudson Bay. So long as that is apparently never ever ever going to change ... eh hm, we are doomed to those over top high pressures ... almost like back building they are, bullying in and afflicting with NE-E "coldrums"

It's going to be fun watching the models fail as this stagnated cold saturated density on the bottom of the atmosphere clings to the region. If it does turn out "nice" ...it will be among the more exceptional same 12 hour period turn arounds recorded. 37/drizzle. It also isn't a good look when there is an active NE wind down in NJ, still, approaching mid morning. I'm perfectly willing to go with the bust today if need be. Haven't been completely sold on the whiplash. But should it turn around enough to fairly transform this rectal plaque into a nice description, hell...stranger things have happened I guess. Edit, recent check and the wind field has finally this hour gone variable between BOS-PHL so perhaps en masse mixing event is readying itself. We'll see.

I keep seeing this repeating theme in our monthlies that are above normal. The ballast of the warmth appears to be occurring in fewer days than the mode. The modes are actually showing more days nearer to neutral and/or negative. Below is HFD for March a just one example

Yeah, our prime BD season isn't here yet. we can't blame every NE accelerating wind field on BDs. BD synoptics are pretty specifically defined, and yesterday into today really isn't what that is. There may have been some tendency/shared physical space, as Scott pointed out yesterday, there was some identifiable rad signatures that a BD-line boundary was involved, but the primary facet/influence in this case is a strong N front with a big high building in. You don't have those features with a typical BD. BD's require a s/w moving ESE N of Maine... As it passes, NVA behind creates DVM and this coupled to the colder marine environment underneath and produces a pressure/density discontinuity where more mass is NE of the region E of the Berkshire/White cordilleras. This triggers a vector moving back SW to "fill" that region with the denser/colder air. And it will do so with the ability to snap flags, wave trees around and slam doors shut as Brian mused.... I've seen BDs with very little discernible actual high pressure at the synoptic scale, with 30 kt NE wind bursts kicking up dust before. These are found most so in late April thru early June. Before then, we have more hybrid types like yesterday - which fits the time of year actually. Just a nasty nasty cfront. By the way, ...if you look down at the Del Marva penn and S, it's a BD for them. Now imagine the climate of May around here, we're like they are today

The more I look at this .. I wouldn't trust any warm pattern up our way through at least mid month. Not saying it will be like today - this is something else entirely. There are fewer days out of a year actually this repugnant. This is something uniquely egregious. We could get lucky ... but we can't seem to shake a negative anomaly in the deep troposphere circulation mode wobbling around the Canadian archipelago to D. straight and back. And as that is persistently there, the flow is naturally going to be episodically confluent across S-SE Canada. That's going to generate these high pressures that then suppress the ambient late season polar boundary S ...probably south of climatology at times, too. That PV has been plaguing that region for months, really... As we embark upon the warm season, it's not relenting... not yet anyway. I think until that does we relay on being lucky... Since I live here, and want it to be warm, unfortunately ... that means everyone else that wants it warm will end up UN lucky Probably we'll log another NASA month where relative to everywhere else around, we have a negative offset cooler region over SE Can/NE U.S. when the March numbers are settled.