Typhoon Tip

this would have been an "ice storm" opportunity if the fall rates were more - tho could argue the length of the event is challenged. There's an established drain/ageo flow ongoing that is just about perfectly balanced against melt layer overrunning aloft. We're glazed to perhaps .1" ... shrub and twigs starting to do that day glow look. Car windows are mottled and there's icicles forming along the edge of the awnings. But the puddles in the salted streets are barely patterning rings. Rad is a bit more robust coming, moving in from the west but it may not last long.

EPS member mean has a Miller B behavior, albeit centered around 1000 mb give or take .. but the pressure pattern evolution is unmistakable from 200+ hours of way this is a fine signal. The 06z GFS as others have already pointed out was a canonical looking system. It's Miller A. The earlier 00z was amplified at the L/W scales, consistent with the erstwhile +PNA outlook/timing, but devoid of S/W mechanics capable of doing much of anything. The GEFs have a low passing through but it's unimpressive; again, not too concerned with that at 200 hours - plenty of time there. The 00z Canadian and any Canadian run for that matter going back several cycles have yet to do so either. The GEPs mean was a subtle improvement over the 12z run. These are all like 'taking a stab' at what 14-15-16 will be. Best not to commit to any one of these signal variances. The take away is that the signal is still there.

Not sure what the semantic registry is on your side, but going from not a positive PNA to a positive PNA is a regime change Now, if you’re talking about whether it is going to provide this that or the other thing …who knows The other thing is that PNA may not last that long because there will be another regime chain shortly thereafter- if the extended range multi ensemble sourced indicators play out the way they look now. We’ll go to a negative EPO “regime“

In fact, this 18z GFS run came in with a trough deep enough to get it done for the first time in this approach, but ... the wave spacing of the individual S/W's are interfering.

Heh... pistol to head I'm more inclined to suggest the 13-16th based upon science of mass field modulation and correction ... The period after that isn't 'bad' per se, but honestly... we slip the +PNA and then see a new pattern signal right on it's heals that is an abrupt blossoming of a bona fide negative EPO ( not that weird N. Pac thing last month) ... I'm just referring to the actual spatial construct of the hemisphere in the deeper ranged ens system, all three agreeing in principle. The problem with that is, we could observe a seesaw in the pattern just the same ... a flip back "warm" ( ish ) in the E. There's a spatial synoptic argument for it. It shows up statistically/climatology on negative EPOs where a fair number of them actually drop heights in the W immediately downstream of the Alaskan sector ridge. A variation that wouldn't likely be sussed out at this range necessarily. I actually think in the winter where we have established cold on this side of the hemisphere, the flow rate will encourage lengthening L/W lengths ...that might offset the tucked west scenario, too. So some help perhaps That all said, I don't see that as encouraging as this rather powerful looking +PNA burst that is happening in the foreground ... It starts ramping earlier actually... late this week, and maxes around or just prior to the 15th... Usually it is along or near the apex, we engender a bomb or a series with aggregate energy. The operationals have a kind of 'correction vector' that is pointed toward amplitude when there is such a loud signal, yet they are lacking. This signal predates their typical extended stochastic bs.

Yeah, I know ... Lipid panel will improve ...that was the point there ... typing fast

Cut out all processed sugar as much as retentively possible. I mean you gotta go at it with remorseless vengeance and assume with distrust in your heart that whatever, where ever, and why, are all conspiring to sneak it past your attention. Everything about food stock provided by the "Industrial Food Complex" since the early part of last century is reconstructing sugar molecules. Stay on the outside of the grocery store perimeters. Only by raw and cook your own. NO EXCEPTIONS! Go Allulose and Stevia extract ( organic sources), about 96/4 mixtures if you have to have sweet. A teaspoon of honey is probably okay ( but that doesn't mean 20 of them either). The former tastes exactly like the toxicity with 0 toxicity. You won't know the difference and it has zero glycemic index. Sugar beyond the biological evolutionary signal ( an amount that is shockingly lower than people are aware) is connected to 90% of all inflammatory responses in physiology, and just about all systemic problems traditionally associated to 'just aging' are in fact connected to different degrees of inflammatory response. What's actually aging is the body's ability to resist the toxins of access sugar. Easily fix.. Gout and other forms of arthritic flares, to hypertension to pre Diabetes and eventually arteriosclerosis and cancers ... all can be traced back to inflammation. You'll lose weight. Your cholesterol will plummet ( particularly the tri-glics and ultra LDLs). You'll notice a reduction in frequency and intensity of maintenance areas of the body. Hell, you might even recover some

Ha... essentially, winter in the northern hemisphere is in or around this circle

yeah, I see some boat missing by those making an "analysis" of these 12z guidance.... haha. The Euro was really close .. really really close to going bonkers with that Jan 15 thing, which was a massive step toward amplitude comparing the prior run. The CMC also moved significantly toward a deeper +PNA with coastal implications heavily flirted. I dunno. From this range? I call that plenty to look at.

They use a process known as 'reanalysis' - basically, taking what is physically known about the system, and then putting data that was empirical ( or very closely estimated to be consistent witth - ) and feeding that data to the mathematics. The results paint a likeness that is 82 ... 91 ...99%tile of what was natural. So, reanalysis is not always perfect, but if we are over even 60% in confidence/reconstruction, that is significant - and significance can the be tested against other data sets that are also related. If two sources come back with similar results, that improves the confidence. They're indicating at the bottom of that article, "These findings are the result of a statistical analysis of the 250mb jet stream using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset." In order to get more discrete than that would have to go to the source/server they are referencing, and delve into the paper's "methodology" section

CMC's buckin for the 15th.... either way, that's a pig +PNA amplitude. I'd be almost - if it were not for the last 10 years of oddities ruling the outcomes - be surprised if something didn't manifest during that period, because regardless of this Canadian run ( which is easy to do HAHA), that signal is very much still active in the index modalities

There's a lot of these articles out there guys that discuss/elucidate the fast atmosphere we've been observing - these being papers that are scientifically researched and then adjudicated via the procedural accrediting. Here's a good one among many, https://phys.org/news/2022-02-jet-stream-brought-storm-eunice.html Phys.org is site the provides paraphrased renditions of the formal works. They do sometimes op ed... but, when they are referencing they also provide links to the actual paper. "Jet stream that brought storm Eunice has been getting faster over last century New research from the University of Southampton shows that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased its average speed by 8% to 132 miles per hour. The jet stream, which this week brought storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin to the UK, has also has moved northwards by up to 330 kilometers."

That's true in either direction. You may find this hard to believe ... I don't try to substantiate more or less, up down right or left. I wanna know what's going on. that's it. that's all. that's the whole thing. One has to mention it at times, because it is a factor. I don't know how much or less at any given moment - no one does. It doesn't appear my or anyone's mentioning it is actually being considered fairly - so yeah, that? that's a perception. LIke it f'n matters in the grand scheme of anything, anyway. haha

I don't believe you are as fair as you think you are when exchanges teeter. You get combative dude. sorry. You're clearly being evasive about the notion that you choose to use words that frankly, ...anyone with a modicum of intelligence doesn't really need to read into anything to understand your attempt. And when called out, that's when this derailed - I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt - mainly because I do the same thing to people ... LOL. It's not always on purpose. Whatever look, I think you need to do some reading. It doesn't appear you have enough exposure to the accredited science on matter. If so, perhaps you'd be less inclined to accuse people of having CC biases -

It's pretty clear to me that your hot, ... then telling me to chill out. Nice LOL

I did not do that presently at any time this morning ... YOU DID You're evading ... we're done

Yup, "You have this proclivity" has one connotation, it implied me having a bias. I'm telling you, it's not based on a bias - it is backed by research globally outside this tiny social media-sphere. Also, with a pig ton of face-smacking obvious observations available to anyone that is in fact NOT biased

"You have this proclivity" has one connotation - bias. Which in this area of science and hobby, either end, is a bad aspect to have implied. That's not arguable. Don't do that. We'll be fine. And also, Start here, and bother to go down this rabbit whole in a realm where's a huge and still growing content that exists already in the research ambit. These cite, both directly and indirectly, content - with scientific background- that elucidates exactly what I have been trying to impress for something like 15 years at this point... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas ... scroll to the bottom, too. And there's other servers, not just this one. These are all accredited scientifically, and once you read through a few of them ... CC affects and effecting on the circulation modes is incontrovertible. In fact, if we're taking long lead forecasting seriously, it's highly recommended.

It's not a mere proclivity. You need to do some reading ... not mine and then making statements that subversively diminish others. Start here, and bother to go down this rabbit whole in a realm where's a huge and still growing content that exists already in the research ambit. These cite, both directly and indirectly, content - with scientific background- that elucidates exactly what I have been trying to impress for something like 15 years at this point... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas ... scroll to the bottom, too. And there's other servers, not just this one. These are all accredited scientifically, and once you read through a few of them ... CC affects and effecting on the circulation modes is incontrovertible. In fact, if we're taking long lead forecasting seriously, it's highly recommended.

There's been these funny memes on Instagram where Shmuck steps out oblvious and with a cup of coffee and ends up looking like George Jetson ... seems like a good morning for Funniest Home Video ops

what? my thoughts are pure logic dude - at the moment anyway... nah, CC has nothing to do with why I cited MJO desk, and these other facts in present company and stream. lol, not sure we're even disagreeing on much here.

mmm... in this case, not sure agree. peppeRONI or not, the pizza isn't getting cooked with ENSO if it is decoupled. RONI does not mean there's some presence when the ENSO is decoupled. It means the coupled state is augmented and really shares a quasi state. That weird N. Pac thing that lasted 4.5 weeks or whatever eternity that was ... didn't strike me as either to be honest.

Repetitive WWBs are pretty damming, nonetheless Also, recently the MJO desk has cited comments that the NINA atmosphere appeared to be contained just to the immediate region around the Equatorial band - which in a large spatial sense implies it is largely decoupled from the hemisphere. SO, WWBs ... decoupled states ? I dunno. Sounds a little like it's dead before it hits the floor. Suppose that is true ... all it really means is that ENSO is less useful from here on out.. because "decoupled" is what happens when you ain't geddin any

13-14-15 is still on the table. Altho probably favors the latter end of that range if there's going to be an event. Obviously we have nuisance to lower level advisory issues in the nearer terms, but writing in terms of more broadly supportive for canonical events, which is beyond these foreground concerns. The 00z EPS/GEPs/ and even the typically hesitant GEFs still attempting amplitude along the OH-MA with +PNA arrival. Typical to find events during spatial-temporal reordering of the super synopsis, which this chart above lands on one of those times. The ridge in the west in this rendering may appear a bit less than ideal ( W bias)? That's true, however, this GEFs mean is the most W of the three ens. It's also retrograding W and didn't start out there. Beyond this ... ~ the 15th-18th, the hemisphere gets interesting. That +PNA lending to a bit of an H.A. signal appears slated to be a transient index state as it soon de-amplifies. However, changes in the forcing scheme upstream across the expanse of the Pacific lends to an original and new -EPO approaching the 20th. Quite amplified as of last night's means, too. No clue from this range what that will mean, but odds hugely sloped in favor a cold N/A loading period. Not a warm last 10 days of the month given the previous week's arrival into these 300+ hr mean structures...

Also by surplus” I don’t mean to imply that the model is in error with all that speed, but it could be just the same I meant surplus in the context of it’s just not needed and unwanted if you’re a storm enthusiast cause it’s definitely interfering negatively