Typhoon Tip

Too much PV strung out across the Canadian Shield for me to like big warm ups along the NP-GL-NE garland. I mentioned this over a week ago, when that was in the guidance ens longer range means; because of that the warm ups should be held in check. I called it melt and mud season. I now wonder if we get that much but will hold for now. If the former should prove more poorly/unseen confluences causing wedge highs to undercut ...no shocker. I've also been observing these models runs ever since... inch by inch have been eroding/rasping the tops off the N latitude of the warm bulges. I don't think the aforementioned PV constraints are entirely unrelated to that sneaky correction tendency/leans.

So yeah ... the Euro's ens system has a hard-on for flipping the continent toward a strong +PNAP just after the Ides. The entire PNA domain may only be partial during that 14-18th period, but who cares... if there's a deep trough transient in the region that's all it takes. If that were the only guidance available, that's probably a risk period. It may be .. it's possible the EPS has a better handle on the mid month than the other ens systems. Which don't show as robust of a +PNAP... In fact, their Pac --> N/A relays are more neutral in the total PNA character, conserving more speed/stretched wave lengths in the GEFs/GEPs.

That's an anomaly out there right now. Low grade but it is ... 27 dead air capped over by strata protecting a fresh inch of mixed glaze and sleet is more Jan 6 than Mar 6... As an aside ... I'm assuming based on recency that when the monthly mean is released by NASA, Feb will have completed the trifecta of core winter months all being well above normal, globally, while a small node of isolated negative anomalies - of only two or three covering the whole planet - will be situated right here. This is a blessed year for winter enthusiasts within said repeating oddity.

Noticed this too... most home sites up here crashed 5 or 6 F in 20 min just after 3am... dove down. 32 ... 33's were 26 by 4 am. All and all a minoring gunk event. 1/2 to 1" of sleet here. It's white though so there's probably a fair amount of low level needles and poor dendrites mixed in but calling it a sleeter

Tuck/ptype came thru a few minutes ago Flashed over to all sleet

This thing has a 31.9 straight rain "just realized my calibration musta been .02 degrees too cold all along?" look about it. Wouldn't be the first time the NAM sold big QPF from a little critter. heh we'll see

Setting the stage .. ... according to WPC ( and as expected - ) the front demarcating the big +PP air mass arrival has slipped thru unnoticed... Looking around at the DPs, there's a lag there, with colder DPS held up across NE NY/VT/NH/N ME. They're in the neighborhood of 30 F locally, which isn't likely low enough for ZR. Need to see the activation of some sort of ageo drainage jet. Also, if the sounding were to verify more isothermal+ it won't be enough for snow either; a solution like the UKMET or ICON would be on the table and most froze/freezing is N of the VT/NH border. One aspect the front demarcation signals though is that the correction vector points cooler, ... particularly knowing that high is building ESE and will get deeper, not warmer in the lowest levels however.

mm perhaps, but it physically can't go N in this case, not unless the blocking high pressure/synoptic structuring en masse are reconfigured. I don't personally see how that is happening or can? I would almost argue instead that this is a bump run. May even correct the same amt the other way on the next cycle.

Could almost be a silent passage ... ? at some point along the way the DP sneakiliy sheds 10F. The wind is already 0+ mph from the N/NE and the ceiling arrival time is perfect for cold capping in the diurnal cycle ( won't warm up enough to notice a change) so it may be hard to tell precisely when the front slips passed.

yeah... most likely the only one

I remember talking to Scott 4 or 5 days ago, this thing had a minimum/floor of moderate impact back then and it was kind of believable just synoptically because the feature’s playing into it were stable/predictable.

Isothermal sounding on this NAM over Logan. NE wind 30mph pushing S/S+ rates is nasty cake at 32

I wouldn’t get too hung up on models generating convection, and then using that as QPF distribution Thing is that these general isentropic event types are better handled by the coarser smoothed solutions. The meth models are going to spuriously trigger convection that is completely driven by chaos in the model and then that’s gonna turn around and fuck up all the works

is there a thread ... ? narrow stripe of low end warning snow overnight into Friday morning, underbellied by .45" accretion ice.

I'm hoping for more ice at this point than snow. That looks like a sneaky .7" of qpf which is respectable, and if that falls as snow, it's another 5 fuckum inches of white dog shit I don't need or want. At least .7" is only .45 of accretion, which falls short of power going out, and has the upshot of being gone within an hour of sunrise Saturday morning. Saturday could be like today... but ...that looks like there could be a problem with strata below an inversion cap. hard to say.

That high pressure keeps givin' too. Even though it's been smeared out across the N Atlantic in the grave it's going to ruin Saturday. Otherwise that'd be 62.

actually don't cope. I like this variant of Kevin better at this time of year. See .. he's insufferably down playing warmth. True. However, that is WAAAAaaaay better them him intolerably pimping warmth during a time of year when that has never happened like he tries to gaslight it has. If he copes, he'll trigger... then the intolerable shit gets going..

It was a Saturday, 12:15 pm March 29, 1997 up at UML. Over the previous hour I had been looking over weather charts from Unisys internet site; the ECMWF and the MRF 12Z runs were updating every couple of frantic mouse click moments. Over my shoulder, up upon the WX Lab monitor, the temperature read 63.3F ... despite what those model presentations were telling me. I recalled in the moment how an early week broadcast, Harvey Leonard performed his 20 second synoptic rundown before he gave us the numbers. He spoke in deference to "...A strong disturbance... closing off as it is crossing New York State.." He waved his hand in a rotational gesture and added, "...Should this vigorous feature manage to pass under Long Island, we'll be watching this for having much more important implications..." - may not have been his exact words, but after 30 years, that was the gist of it. I remember in that moment's mind while looking over those charts, '...That's exactly what these models are doing, now.' It was one of those things you just knew was going to happen? From the moment I saw that broadcast of his several days before, I knew we were going to end up in that destiny. Not sure why - why we sometimes do this in life. It's so weird. Like ... Grady Little leaving Pedro on the mound in the 2002 ALCS. The 'Sox were still up 5-3, just in the 6th, but when he stabbed our hearts with that decision, one that would prove so pivotally instrumental in ending their season, we didn't have to wait for the 9th inning of that game to prove it. We just knew. Moments later I walked across the University Ave bridge that spans the Merrimack in some of the most utopia sun drenched spring conditions physically make-able on planet Earth. It shown intensely through a random smattering of picturesque fair weather cumulus, leaning their shallow turrets south like the tipping masts of dinghy race. That sky and those clouds in no way shape or form inspired what would transpire a mere two days from now. Lawns were already well green. And a curious bumble bee bobbed temporarily by me like something out of Disney. I thought about just how non suspectingly oblivious everything about that reality, and the scene within it, were. This dichotomous memory came back to me as I stood in under that sun during lunch ... though there is no storm like that coming, just the idea that it was the way it was, outside, just yesterday, and now it is 51 here with steaming streets under fervent spring sun, and knowing that 4.5" of snow followed by more glaze is due on deck ... it's amazing how we do this revolving door seasonality in spring around here.

posted a chart an hour ago to show this but the synopsis of having that newly arriving polar high through QUE, dammed in, having also arrived over this impressive cryosphere.. the low levels should at least "look" colder than the warmer solutions are giving us. It's interesting that the NAM is as warm as it is; you'd think it's resolution in the lower 300 mb would be colder. I wonder if the NAM being a weaker QPF is limiting systemic cooling or something.

FIT finally punched through. 46 but the last 5 deg of which were in the last 40 min. DP up to 36. Under full March sun ( the street melt water is steaming for the first time I've seen this year including that 52 sunner on Saturday, so we've crossed a sneak sol threshold) there's no way in physics snow is not melting today.

I suspect the GFS has the right idea here, amts of QPF notwithstanding. But the synopsis of having that newly arriving polar high through QUE, dammed in, having also arrived over this impressive cryosphere.. the low levels should at least "look" colder. It's interesting that the NAM is as warm as it is; you'd think it's resolution in the lower 300 mb would be colder. I wonder if the NAM being a weaker QPF is limiting systemic cooling or something.

Temp at FIT hasn't budged in an hour. 40 F sniffin a bust ?

I kinda feel like features are over amplifying in the daily guidance' for that range. But like you...unsure. I have objective reasons for thinking that though. 1 the models tend to be over amplification, always, in the D7 to ... Nth range. It's matter of how much, be it 44 or 4% but there seems to always be a time-dependent tax paid by the time whatever is being monitored is D5 <-- 2 can you think of a better month to f* up amplitude prospects in guidance (anyway), than a month where guidance' handling of ginormous +d(solar), and it's modulation impact, is suspect in perpetuity? Typically forced neutering of the patterns is more of an April phenomenon.. but there's likely to be some of that in March, particularly nearing and beyond the equinox. seems adding up those two inference techniques should constrain one's ideas - unless your IneedOlanzapine, who sees a blue contour over Baffin Island and throws a emoji at us like we're supposed arrest all actions and tune right in.. 3 is more of a super synoptic observation. It seems this trough and move toward +PNAP mid month is setting up a dreaded compression type. Normally I'd say that's an H.A. look there around the 15-17th ... in fact I think I mentioned that a couple days ago if mem serves. Any, I just see that trough in the ens means as setting a elephant's ass down on a trampoline, where the heights are bursting out both ends... That's means there huge velocity, which as we know...is really a destructive interference in principle. But here's the thing ... if 1 and 2 are right above, that means the trough might actually correct back into a lower velocity, whereby S/W's can be conserved. So then we go the other way ... All and all? "unsure what mid month brings"

Oh, right... LOL That also reminds me, that December 2020 massacre.. I think some places lost 18" of pack in a single night. I guess maybe we can draw a distinction in "melt reasons" - if nerdy enough. heh. Like, if it's raining with 50 mph gusts at 55 F... you could decap Greenland with that. Kind of a different sport. This coming up will zephyr winds under sun with temps (maybe approaching 70) and DPs probably nearing 50 - who wins and how much