Typhoon Tip

It's a springy blue bomb, really ... it is... that's a marginal- profile type of event. -3 at 800, 0 at 900 and the surface - just in my imagination correcting for random suspects...

Gosh I love pigs

Well ..honestly, that bold is unstable and probably one or the other yields... about 90% confident it would be the -NAO... I can't stress this enough.. the NAO is modulated/forced by the wave termination mechanics downstream of the Pacific planetary signal. Not lecturing anyone here ...just sayn', it is not occurring just spontaneously out of random emergence. It is dictated by the former planetary circulation gunk. Such that having that block emerging in the N. Pac ...it's likely it pulls the rug out on the -NAO... It may not entirely... but we probably see something like a neutralizing NAO domain, while the PNAP across the CONUS sort of biases toward a -PNA but fails really be strongly so with any warm dividends one might climo-associated to a -PNA ...while late cold loads western Canada ( destined to stretch the field..) This is predicated on the N. Pac continuing to manifest, though. We'll see.

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... Oh it's not helping, sure. But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles... That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters... it's identical. This is also coupled to the ridge showing up in the 100 hPa level in the Strat/Trop monitoring, which also did the same thing back whence and a lot of folks were fooled into believing it was an early season SSW... just like there are those thinking similarly now. But it's not clear to me because it is not, frankly, a true up--> down intrusion/propagating event. This is just a hemispheric shuffle... or re-shuffle... The ideas of a warm post mid month ( as I warned yesterday...) might be in trouble as these patterns repeat over longer periods.

That was a significant move by the GEFs comparing the 12z to the 18z for the 15th. Some deep members sprinkled around the spread area with a mean closed low passing underneath

I mentioned a few pages ago… But it’s going to be a torch unless something similar takes place to what took place nearing January 20, which was a resurgence of blocking that the models were not really handling very well – in other words it might be a little unexpected, but we could prove this to be another interlude more than an actual end to winter - post the 15th That question needs to be answered.

You know ...I was giving that, that 'pre spring' aspect some thought. I know exactly what you mean as I have been seeing/wondering that too. However, I'm not sure if you or anyone might recall this but... nearing the end of that odd ball N. Pac blocking node between thanks giggedy and early early Jan, we were modeling something similar to this with periodic ultimately faux SE ridges ... We did mild up in there, but not very convincingly so before the era of -EPO kicked in. We've pulsed some 3 or 3.5 times with that index in the last 3 weeks since, and we've registered some decent wintry chill and at last a real snowfall out of it... Anyway, point is, I'm not sure this isn't some Charlie Brown set up for spring/warm enthusiasts just yet. I don't think there is a proper SSW intrusion --> down propagation event... but I think a low to up variant is certainly on the table, and it doesn't matter? really if you're doing that, your freezing your balls off either way... in fact, the top down version is probably less useful to winter enthusiasm ( just for the sake of discussion) because that time-lag's a killer going into March. It could just not show up when it is that late. But anyway, I definitely want to see some legs in the form of continuity in a warm appeal out there. Lord knows I want it... but just objectively

18z GFS has a 522 dm closed low passing under LI across the 14/15th. Not a sub 516 dm hyper gradient rampaging speed bomb, which looks really good until the reality of outpacing the Coriolis param shatters dreams. Relaxed flow underneath it too. Much better chances in that look than the previous renditions. All that canvased negative interference is gone. Wow. Lowered average geopotential basal flow - how the hell this model is pulling that off in the face of unmitigated seasonal persistence... It's probably related to the N/stream kicking its ass outta here. Good fuckin riddance man

I'm down at least a half foot on the yard level. huh

Agreed ... this brings up another point for me ... Ray and others may know this but, in an ongoing raging -AO winter, which this ...might qualify - objectively we'll have to see if that ending +d(AO) is real or not but it would predate any SSW time-lag coupling enough that a positive AO period could temporally fit prior to the forcing being realized. Otherwise, the advent of an SSW and actual downward propagation - a prerequisite requirement in the correlation - may not mean anything to a season already heavily downtrodden and cooler than normal resulting. Yeah, protracted wet snow on mud winter is not subjectively preferred. LOL. For me personally...would rather that positive AO above herald in a different sort of seasonal relay.

Not trying to burst the meme bubble ... but until that registers in the models as successfully to and thru the 100 mb level, it's unclear (likely not) that there's destined to be a wholesale sigma coupling that eventually/really involves the troposphere. That may yet happen, but support for that is very vague for the time being. 300 hour GFS from recency does shows up heights height response over the Alaska sector, so we may just need to bide time

But it is a matter of a scale. There are events that take place regardless of indexes; they may seem like they were anti-correlated when they do. However, the restoring forces were required by smaller mass field disruptions, taking place intra index. I personally call these sub-index events.

Idealistically ... but correlations are not 1::1. You can get a coastal despite and have it just be a realization of the lower probability schemes. Same reason why you get popped by lightning walking out to collect the mail - just because there's a .0000000034% chance of getting electricuted fetching the mail, shit happens. The take away ... sorta like what Brian was just saying, is that your moving -1 to +1 SD in the PNA domain, which HA owns that work but it's applicable to all domains frankly. Switching from +EPO to -EPO (so going the other direction) favors cold and storminess in Denver. Moving from +WPO to -WPO, with applied time lag, favors lowering EPO and/or rising the PNA ... (complex relay), both of which can then implicated cold loading into the N/A ... The theme here is changing indexes from a fair weather time, to a correlated not fair type, tends to be heralded in with an event. They are "restoring" events.

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much. The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere. It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...). Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff. It's all sketchy to me at best.

I just recalled this.. the stricter interpretation of the H.A. thesis, which really applies everywhere in nature ... whenever going from one state of a system, to a new state, requires events. That really all that is. Anyway, the -NAO differentiating ( or rising) to a +NAO did have a minoring statistic correlation with precipitation over eastern N/A. So technicall ... that +d(NAO) out there ... it's a little bit of a stretch though, because that particular correlation is really more overrunning related, whereas the current signals by the Can ens appears to be a vague early detection of Miller B

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for... neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to hopes and dreams of being kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and one solitary run of the GFS (06z) leaving you messages on the date site. Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time. -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO. wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

Yeah I'll take your word for it. I don't personally vibe with them yet... I just don't have enough of a feel for their bias typologies/under what circumstances and so forth. All a keep hearing is that they are 'primitive' ...which has to be the case because we know they did not exist a minute ago. I can tell ya, this latter aspect doesn't exactly make it move for me... the only times I looked at them, they give the appearance of circa 1990 MRF solutions, with fuzzy QPF that is cartoonishly large looking for events only 48 hours away. It didn't impress me. I'm more "intrigued" if we want to call it that ...that the Can ens cluster has such a bright signal from 270+ hours like that. Should that hold and the GEFs and EPS ante in ... no one will remember.

here's your VD transmission day event in the Canadian ensemble. GEFs and EPS have nothing coherent above the background static noise left over after the big bang for their handling between the 14 and 15th. The numerical indices have no interest, either. In fact, -d(PNA), +EPO, neutralizing NAO support at minimum alleviation of cold. I think we're seeing that pretty clearly enough in the general cinemas of the operational models out there toward the middle of the month. There is/was one operational run, the 06z GFS, as I'm sure this remarkable storm attentive group of people have already exposed. So, it is what is for the time being. Not much support from most of what's out there, with a short list of sources doing more.

Model's trying to end that way though

Just off loaded all the snow from the solar panels in one big avalanche.

Boy did that MJO fail

To early to establish any confidence but it's the first of the season, post exiting the solar minimum, when the extended GFS can't wait to tell us here comes spring

probably it will attenuate some 12 or more % in the guidance over the course of the week.

The quickening flow is well past documentation and researched/papered ... I've supplied links over the years. One can go to Phys.org or where ever access point they use and bother looking for themselves at this point. Plus, why do we think all those air-land speed flight records have been set in recent decades re west-->east? It's not a question of whether the flow is fast or not.. Fiddling with Navier-Stokes, agreed - but the basic wave form of the Navier Stokes equations ( which are processed in the physical make up in the model), has the U component variable - which is the static velocity of fluid medium within which the wave propagation takes place. Increasing the value is going to do something to the wave spacing.

Looks like a 12 hour shot of high winds and biting cold ... then the wholesale pattern across the continent has a better than random chance of a cold relaxation. The N/stream backs off the incursions and we see 540 dm thickness back more convincingly to 40N across the conus ( not just a narrow spike but with breadth) for the first time in quite a while. Unclear what this means for specific anomalies/dailies, but at least a moderation in temperatures should and would be consistent with the current telecon vision together with loss of N/stream direct