Typhoon Tip

mm... What I want is just as irrelevant. Shit I check out every year at this time. It doesn't mean jack. I. hate. winter. after. Feb 15 With the hypocritical exception of something more extraordinary ...which I have elaborated/admitted all this many times in the past am morally fine with it. LOL It is actually entering a frustrating time of year for me. Because objectively, we don't get warmth to stick around here until... 3 weeks in late July for that matter. Aprils? H'ho man. I tell ya, I'm not that far off from my mortgage being paid ... at which time, I will be free to scope out salvation residences during this region's spring climate rectum

Perhaps ... It needs more for that, though. As is...it's a spring warm thrust. The surface synoptics underneath all that, lags a bit yet. It can potentially get there ... it's teetering with ballooning, but out of deference to the incredible persistence of this winter to pick on the eastern mid latitude continent for cold ... who knows. It is normal at this sort of range for the surface to lag response to deeper layer forcing... 570 heights arcing over spatially large progressive ridge during a -PNA has room for warmer temps to en masse expand, so it's not impossible. It's just not there yet. And the -PNA's non-linear constructive interference could help that ridge get bigger and cleaner. Plus, we're after the solar min during seasonality's steepening recovery slope ( in an era of CC just to chap some asses ) As an op ed, I just see this winter's cold journey as being very enabling. We've been in an escaped state of mind provided by a cold predicament that was really ( in true and fair reality) confined specifically to this nodal region of the hemisphere. And I would argue that removing the ~10 day warm anomaly during mid January, likely makes this preordaining cold imby bias that much more obvious on the right side. The larger, longer termed reality isn't that. It is easier to go warmer than it is to go cooler in the world of present era, and to an exceptionally high degree ( pun hopefully annoying -) of confidence, that will be the case for generations to come. Warm signals will tend to out perform the cool ones, if only by decimals over the long haul/arithmetic of climate.. that is clad. That has to be the case. Because, what one wants is irrelevant against objective mathematics. Euphemistically, you can simply say it getswarm at lesser excuse to do so, than cool. So where I am going is... folks might be surprised when the pattern finally and more viscerally does change ... because the other direction could be more than they've been inclined to think.

Using the indices... March begins in balm. Whether that's merely relative to climatology, or actually feels that way between the front door and destination, notwithstanding. But that -WPO is retrograding in the materialized spatial ens cinemas, at the same time there's a -PNA/+EPO/Neutral NAO; a wholesale mass field scaffolding that doesn't leave a whole helluva lot of other alternative impressions. Particularly when the +EPO has -2 SD cold over Alaska. Cold AK typically results in warm departures over the GL-NE/SE Can. We'll see... Can't say I'm opposed ( personally ...) I've checked out. I'm ready. I'll be objective about "late" event possibilities, but in terms of druthers? I'm all about lesser clothed ladies and outdoor laze faire and sports. In the interest of fairness... whatever happens this week can still get winter antics done for winter enthusiasts. The end of the week still looks like a mixy/ice potential... But it's low confidence by virtue of the fact that the moderately (still/residual) higher speed of the flow foot is flattish through then, which is very typically not a good deterministic regime for modeling.

D10 GFS ...this is the truer spring thrust - first of the year.

yeah...so gee, how's one suppose to think otherwise - huh

Yep

Heh... if we can call the 06z GFS' no event at all as colder, I guess nothing happening is technically 0 thermodynamics, so it would philosophically fit that definition haha Not sure I agree with it yet, still lookin'

yeah ...there's a tendency for the models to act like there's a -NAO block when the actuals don't really show a block. It's really interesting. But pinning the p-boundary roughly DTX to BOS is part of that behavior

Near missed bible phase

The deviant in me would love to see this parked on MVY ... just plunk it there and go ahead and call the National Guard

Is the 23-26th one of those climate snow holes ?

I'm also still willing to entertain more ice involved between that and the short order cook round two.

yeah.. not a 'major' event per se, but that is a significant wholesale correction S with this 12z GFS solution toward the end of week compared to prior runs.

Coming around is it -

Wonder if that was global or if it was just local thing

Steve, He said "pre -industral" Your presenting 1991 -2020 Just sayn' ... y'all can clear up the differences in data sets.

I'm just gonna respond once to save Brian's annoyance in going down the CC rabbit hole but ...yeah. I still can't get over 2023. I don't think anyone has, either. It's just been excepted, now faded - probably because no matter who is involved, everyone in modernity is zombifide into a state of no attention span. Ha. But, I think that it was just so overwhelmingly large and spectacular ... it transcends explanation in a lot of ways. Like deer in the headlight ? And thus still vaguely only theoretically explained ( though the goal posts narrowing - ). People just sort of have to go, okay it was what it was. But what that was ...was proof that humanity, despite all conceits and wizardry, doesn't have a f'n clue what exactly can happen in a future with a destabilized climate, ongoing. No one...man to machine and back, anticipated an entire planet, suddenly rising a whole degree C, air and sea. Everywhere, all at once,... unilateral response. To what? only vaguely described with a lot of plausibility ( probably a cocktail of forces working toward a synergistic outcome ..but whatever ) yet nothing discretely causative or definitive, certainly not informative. That right there, that lack of explanation ..., should ( no pun intended ) make people sweat. It should worry anyone with a modicum of intelligence. You don't have to be a climate scientist, physicist, rocket scientist or Gandalf from lord of the rings to admit, if something that grandiose happens without warning, we don't know what we're really dealing with.

yeah, and the other thing, that sun sitting on the top of the planet look up in the arctic is still 30 below 0 F. This is all an integration over relative climatology - it's not linear in dimension. Definitely the kind of post that starts fights among the razor sharp analytic users of social media Americana muah hahahaha Seriously though ... take a region that probably climo-hovers around -20 C in winter, and inject that kind of climo-relative warm anomaly, the difference might just be 20 feet of snow or whatever AI exaggerated depth that was ... just sayn'

mm, the irony is that these cold anomalies, relative to the whole, are happening where the industry is most guilty of anthropomorphic contribution to CC. nothing else - whether we are using our phones or PCs ... so what. No one is judging anyone on either side; the post is purely for the other irony.

It actually was that way/result in Dec, too. In fact, going back 240 months... something > 1/2 of all months, that, or something similar took place. Despite the so-be-it reality that our temperatures have increased faster than anywhere else in the lower 48 ( Climate Change) in the last 30 years that cold node wobbling around the eastern mid latitude continent, either over it or near enough by to wonder, has taken place. I find that interesting... like, "Gaia" is turning up the heat on the humanity frogs, hoping they don't notice until it's too late and they're boiled and dead. You know, another way to laugh about it ... using the clean setting on the pre-conventional ovens ... basically kiln the filth to ashes. Like the former is used because the latter is the goal.

Prolly not the right forum for this but ... once again, Earth tries to hide the real state of the planet from the policy makers of the U.S.

agreed ...too cold for big dawg melt back.

More a social commentary here ... First of all ... no one should take advice off anyone from a social media source. To point out the obvious, it's no different than subjecting one's self to bus-stop factoids among strangers. Unless one really really knows that source. Like really knows, not because they think they know, but really do. In which case, your proooobably not reading their advice off a social media realm in the first place. hahaha No but what you can do, if you hear or read something that sounds cogent, use that as a step stone in research to go look the shit up yourself and see if its real. This latter tact seldom appears to concern those that frequent this source - that's sort of what I mean by not taking it seriously. Or maybe it is just lazy. Maybe it is just capacity to understand. Maybe compos mentis... Who knows for certain. Being the cynic that I am (perhaps even recreationally LOL) I think it's because people don't want to admit when one person or source is right - particularly ( in here..) when that right sounding advice or observation or whatever tact, cancels their joy. Folks are not in here ( probably neglecting what they're supposed to be doing, much of the time - ) to engage so much in objective lucidity.

I've personally found that those Feb and Mar and even Apr early big heat bombs that took place since 2016 with interestingly increased frequency (a separate climate discussion), seemed to be prologue to a negative NAO over the western limb of the index. Random memory while on the subject... This also took place in October of 2011, with a mid month 4-day static period of 75ish afternoons, even crispy CU towers sometimes on the sunset horizons. Then, in the 20+s of that month, the the western NAO plummets. Few might remember, but we actually flipped to noodles about 3 or 4 days prior to that big late month 'Halloween snow storm' one late afternoon. An innocuous event to serve as warning. But it was all part of that same circuitry getting going. Anyway, point being ... there may be something to that statistically, where warm ups that are above a SD threshold might just correlate rather highly, as a prelude, to a period of higher latitude blocking. Like think of it as a total event that is warm presaging high latitude block in a kind of super synoptic sequence.

It's a warm index period, yet the dailies/oper model cinemas are low balling on that potential. The main reason this takes place is to annoy me... Winter enthusiasts don't realize what is happening, they just assume the world is the way it should be. I'm neurotic about that. LOL. I don't like it when the idiosyncratic vagaries of wind and weather patterns placate and even enable one side, in general - cold or hot. But the reality is that index modes just mean favored regimes. It's a matter of how much or how little. There is variance within those regimes. Anyway, here on Earth... in this case, the pattern is acting like a -NAO without actually having a block. One does eventually formulate up there - as usual, inconsistently in both time and space by the guidance'. But these systems running along a pinned polar boundary late next week ( it's a mixy storm signal that's been there for several days actually...), are acting like the block is there whether it is actually manifested or not. That behavior is the non-linearity of forcing. In wave mechanics, fields interact in both linear and non-linearity. The linear is what you see; the non-linear dictates where waves amplify verse damp out, emerge and decay. That's what exposes the non-linear field Another way to think of the non-linear relationship, the PNA in fact is positively correlated to the NAO. SO, -PNA statistically wants to manifest a -NAO... it seems the physics of the models are exposing that relationship, whether it shows up in the linear structures (those that are readily observed).