Typhoon Tip

Agreed ... Brian and I have had this discussion in the now distancing past but again, those heat explosions that took place in the Pac NW and London ...SE Asia, step country of the Urals, Moscow and Austrialia ...those were all synergistic events. That's when several factors, not just the synoptic footprint, feed back and the modeling technology just doesn't really do that? SO you end up with product that far surpasses expectation. The closes we've come to seeing that E of the Mississippi Valley and N of the Mason Dixie, in modern era whence these synergistic heat waves became a recurring global phenomenon, is the 2012 heat wave. However, that was restricted to far SW and was squeezed further S and eventually demolished by a massive Derecho/processing event. Simply put, we have not had one here. Despite 102 once in awhile, that's not it. We could possibly argue that the May heat up in Ontario the bled into NNE a couple years around the early 2020s but 90s mmm there was some resonate feedback going on there, but it was mostly just lacking the DP input into those that drove that. It was multi-sourced and "bursting" over modeling either. I've actually begun to suspect that it is harder for this area to achieve the synergy. We just have too many available negative inputs... squeezing our circumstance manifold down to lesser ways to get that to happen - it becomes lower odds.

There we go ... just busted 13 F in the last 25 minutes here.

As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent. Day after day after day ... Nope. There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind. So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights. Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement - I don't wish CC upon the world. But it is unfortunately for the world, real. Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge. We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else! And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count.

Still 45 here ...altho the sun's out. As I predicted ... WPC's razor sharp sfc analyses skill has the warm front retreated safely back N of here despite the fact that 0 home sites and even NWS' own KFIT are all clearly still not in a warm sector ....

For a coffee break...

That's Thur dip shit

It's through NE zones... In fact, it's 53 in Groton and 66 2 mi S of me at the Oxbow ob on Rt 2, span of about 8 mi as the crow flies. ..so it's on my doorstop. 40s in Lowell and Burlington. I think this might be ahead. The GFS insists it moves back temporarily while that low transits CNE tomorrow but...heh.. wouldn't be shocked if the WPC analyzes the charts that way when in reality it's a 47 deg butt poker. 3 km is ugly on Thursday. Jesus... 36 under slate sk is quite the BD ram rodding. B N for Apr 2

12z NAM has achieved the absolute piece of shitness. A rare state of utterly 0 redeeming weather value from afternoon tomorrow until sometimes nearing dawn on Friday.

Probably goes in the april thread but man ... 12z NAM even colder... fronts slips SW of Logan at around 12z tomorrow morning, than it's 33F there by nighttime, per FOUS. Nice 20mph laminar NE soothing nape kissing wind too.

Looks like it’s raining sort of where it needs it most ? relative to drought ballyhoo

Oh I’m sure it’s cruel blue balling … but we dream

Unfortunately ..we gotta get through Thursday first

ho man... 18z Saturday on the 00z Euro

Expect the cooling shits to arrive NNE to SSW by this afternoon starting NE zones. Brian's already pretty well f'ed while Kevin might spare some humanity. Front will wobble around along the Pike tomorrow but climo argues it's correcting S. That's a nasty unwanted polar high moving E out of Ontario spanning mid week... warm enthusiasts might turn to other hobbies until Friday. Models have finally coalesced for a Friday AM scour out. Thursday is faux warmth in that pressure pattern as that's a piping E wind off the SST nadir. Good luck. Probably for Metro west of Boston, even down in CT ... that could be a 25 F day to day temperature change from 18z to 21z, between Thur and Fri

Spring peepers triggered here… Not even a little bit I mean they’re like loud choruses driving down the roads

right- and part of my reason for mentioning is because there've been pretty much 0 milder weekend days, so far. as far as i can personally recall that is. All the warm/ish anomalies have been week days. Looking for the first no-snow-on-ground 70 F day with light wind on the weekend

Saturday was looked upper tier on the 00z Euro but you're not asking ... heh

You had to know/suspect that this particular spring would have a preponderance of these BD headaches.

In that solution/depiction? No, CT definitely porked too. Matter of how many inches haha.

12z NAM has a vicious W-E aligned frontal boundary on Wednesday ... It tries to get the region damn close to even freezing rain metro west of Boston. The FOUS grid has 0,0,+3 over Logan, which academically means 0C at the SFC. It's probably more like 32.9 It's all coming down to where to place this stationary boundary. The cold side is prooobably being over assessed ( NAM) in this case, but... in principle, we're still looking easily at 40+ deg F of variance across 100 miles or less with this set up -

00z guidance attempting to lure warm enthusiast into a set up ... muah hahaha I grew up in the ... antiquities of modeling yester-lore ( eh hm), and recall a day and times when if there were ever a BD on the chart near Maine... the verification snows in Atlanta Georgia. No not literally ..but if figuratively/sarcastically. Point being, the models were just inadequate in handling them, particularly because the physics for the lower BL was still being evolved, as well ... the modeling tech was intrinsically having very low resolution/grid point evaluation density when processing. Those limitations meant that BDs, being almost entirely in the lowest 250 mb of troposphere, were only quasi detectable. like hinted at ? Now, huge improvements in the wholesale modeling, from input density/grid resolution, to improvements in various BL assumptions in the baseline physical equations means that the models at least know that there is a BD on the map with far better coherence. They're even improving on the position of them, per interval. Having said that... those ancient early life abuses don't set me up very well for mature adult relationships with models - I tend to still be relationship avoidant/fear of intimacy when it comes to dating prospects that include actually holding off BDs. It doesn't help that BDs are by nature a 'rough sex' experience and I'm not into that sort of thing

Weird to see the Euro 60 hours ( 00z ) be so differently designed than the GFS. I did notice that the last 6 consecutive cycles of the the guidance have en mass/average been raising heights a tick or two...Now 582 dm over Logan ..versus 573 for this mid week's period from just a day or so ago. The Euro appears to be conceding to that with a frontal wave in NNE and Wed am warm sector ...front comes thru noon-ish but weak backside CAA in intense April sun, d-slope under lingering 850s in the +6 or 7 range... that's a decidedly different implication than the GFS. The Euro might actually be a better fit for that tendency to raise heights with the ridging/582. I guess in the strict Meteorological techy shit it's not that hugely different, but the sensible weather implication is really where the differences lie - and "lie" may be the best fit. Ha. Verbatim, this GFS (right) is orange lightning slow growl rumbler rains with chilly air undercutting into NE zones. Wet where mild so capped temperatures SW and basically ... blegh. The Euro on the other hand is probably 75 F with partliy sunny. Over all, there was less cold undercutting total synoptic implications across all guidance... Slightly but perhaps crucially less aggressive in that regard. I think I speak for the majority at this point, we hope so.

Nah BD’s ruinin every day post Tuesday down to NYC

No warmth on the Euro N of the Pike and ... heh, fronts seldom stall there, so may as well drill it to Morristown NJ... BD Tuesday relays to a cold front/CAA --> cycles all over again out to 300 hours, ending in an April snow storm. Have a nice day

I'm highly confident that when the March temperature anomaly is made available by NASA in a couple of weeks it will reveal the 6th consecutive month where a cold sink hole's apparently anchored over the NE' U.S.