Typhoon Tip

No one's askin' but ... I do. My 'druthers spectrum' changed as I've aged. I only like winter now if it is cyclonic and interesting. This is not that. No use for just cold at any time of year. Now, unless it serves something interesting? that's different. But making it un-fun to be outside, as it's only and singular achievement is a rotten horrible piece of shit winter. Proooobably? yeah, I'm not here after retirement - b'bye. But for the time being, if it's not going to be interestingly stormy, I just rather we blow torch it all away

ICON's taking a stab at the 00z Euro notion on this 12z run fwiw -

Flower February

Only a 132 hours away ... I guess we give it a shot ( lol, this crew gives 360's an at bat). Still, we are challenged by immensely fast atmosphere. Most are aware by now that this shortens the outer time range where confidences fade to randomness, considerably. Agree with Ryan that blends/ens clusters are the best bet. For now, the EPS does have a vague signal on the 14th, suggesting the operational EC is bit of a jacked outlier ( 00z ), but am noticing that those members are below 1000 mb it seems 1/3 of the members are likely significant, while 2/3rds struggle with cirrus clouds. Interesting range

another in a parade of phantoms

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

looks like every run's a different focus ... 12 hours, 24 or 36 apart from where it was on the last run, because it's actually a different wave altogether in a general careening buckshot of probably nearly impossible to process s/w swarm

Gotta love the Euro's rendition of that 20th beast... ruins Xmas by rolling up the entire electrical infrastructure into a giant fur ball, then vomits it out to sea. Here we go a pipes a-freezening

add the GGEM's 12z improvement.. what leaps out is the extreme general thickness ( hydrostatic hgts) gradient along which this paltry ( for now...) looking low is riding along. The flow is having trouble "kinking" in time... ad nauseam, because of the faster than normal basal velocity. But this elucidates the high potential should that correct just pubes more so... you'd wind up a rapid deepener, albeit progressive - but who's judging when begging. Just gotta bend the flow in time and BOOM

funny you proffer this sentiment as conciliatory ... I've recently been thinking this exact same "patience" idea, but had 2014-2015 in mind, actually... What happened that late Dec ( after Xmas was wrapped up and tidily ruined with panache ...), is we started getting this torpedo flow with big cold situated just N of our latitude. Systems were riding along the ambient b-c axis, and we did go through about a 10 day to two-week period where we bit cold, followed by quick warm ups to rain...cold, rinse and repeat. I remember posting a sentiment that it was like "playing with fire" - interesting metaphor considering the 'fire' in the context of the times meant that should any of those wave get under our latitude, would make for a sudden change to a whole new world. Well .... oops. Things started going under our latitude - fine idea, then, but ... knowing when that's going to happen, if at all? yeah - patience perhaps... The problem with patience is that nature does not reward for good virtue. That's a human construct. I combat that by just tuning out - glancing at charts here and there for quick diagnosis', and also just to stay in sequence of events. That way I have a sense of knowing when things may finally break right, while at the same time I didn't give the prurient "real" god any satisfaction of having stolen life LOL.

That bold statement of yours, and the chart just beneath it ... are utterly mutually exclusive circumstances and have zero bearing on one another in any analysis that would expose any sort of indicator for some direct causality. This is like I saw a shooting star, this means she loves me

That comes from a NORLUN set up, btw - I thought it subtly ironic that there's been some hints of that in the nearer terms as others sniffed it out. But there, out in the 360-ish time frame, the GFS' 06z has a whopper signal really. IVT with deep heights over head is clear indication for cold convection instability along an axis with convergence underneath. And it's stationary for like 12 hours too. But ... it's also 360-ish hours out in time. It won't be there at all ( most likely ) on this next 12z run. LOL. we'll see

there it is ... the Yuletide mando pattern

GFS is doing that thing it was doing on yesterday's 12z re that 10-11-12 period, where it runs a uber powerful wind max/associated negative tilting S/W up SE of NY Bite by perfect climo track, yet has only a weak primary happy pivot low sitting there over SE Ontario spitting out flurries ...some lame squall leaves New England for it all.. okay -

Granted ...this is the GEFs -derived prognostic NAO curve, and the Euro is not a part of that ensemble system ... Still, these compressed/suppressed/buttfucker issues with soring up the bums of storm enthusiasts circumstances are all remarkably well correlated with this indexes negative phase below - much to the chagrin of what people are wired so deeply they cannot seem to get through to their heads Snark aside, the Euro does seem to a conserving the western limb/-NAO suppressive weight longer than this curve below suggests it should. Not sure what the EPS NAO looks like, but it's probably negative when the Va squish is happening would be my guess. Anyway, if the NAO is relaxing, that system might trend N -

I was too busy this morning but god ... christ am I glad that ...everything there is in weather chartage, did not greet my eyes first thing this morning. Ugly .

We talked about this a bit yesterday ...so what, 5 pages ago? anyway, yeah ...most posters involved in that exchange agreed, we merely "suffer" ( depending on subjective perspective ) through a time that is unrepresentative of that longer termed reality. I also want to point out... last year (and I think a couple of other years since 2020 for that matter) Eurasia over into Russia/Asia itself, went through perhaps counter-intuitive excessively cold periods - if memory serves, they tended be front winter when they occurred, but I'll have to look. It is interesting that despite the global this and that, the empirical/realized data shows that both things are true: The world is both warming in total, while seated within ... there is also gasping cold.

Yeah ... ex GF's heart

The 10th/11th doesn't have sturdy legs under it from the indices, but the 8th does. its interesting.. as obviously the intriguing curvatures are hourglassing the flow more so for that latter of the two. It appears the hemisphere is attempting to slip back into a N. Pac favorable pattern after having relaxed for the last 5 days. I'm seeing the WPO is in -delta. The progs from all major ens systems are almost as low as it was 2 to 3 weeks ago. The EPO appears to be completely restructured into a hefty NVA up there and this seen in the spatial layout of the EPS and all of them really, with high coherence. I showed that chart around mid month above... These don't really correlate well with a +PNA at first, and that does nicely ( statistically) explain why the PNA does goes below neutral later next week after Monday's minoring spike. I think this sets the stage for a very cold 10th to Solstice... When the WPO has a modest negative correlation with the PNA, which connotes -WPO eventually subtends to +PNA given time; to some varying degrees of either. -WPO with a alternating EPO and balancing +PNA intervals is fuck it ...no one's following this. look it's going to be a lot colder between the 10th and the 20something than we were led to think this time last week. snowier too follows

CFS with a Solstice yard sticker ... 971 off Block Island with choke snow CCB and 60 mph gusts Who's with me!

I added to that... some for amusement some of thoughts

This is all likely true in this paper ... but it certainly isn't true this year - for now.. I mean, a persistent snow pack, squalls in the air ... and possible refit event 108 or so hours out in models that have others through the 20th ... to mention, a -20 something anomaly plume here on the doorstep, these are all hallmarks of an above normal winter expression. As an aside, I'm reminded ... I thought back in early September this has a shot at a front loaded winter. Not sure this quite yet qualifies... but at the time I said either that, or a quasi one anyway. I just get the feel that it's done in January this year, though. Flower February? I'm sure I just triggered a salvo of responses, either why that's not true posts, are a bunch of truly intellectually inspiring shit emojis ... but we'll let all that and see what happens in due time.

interesting. the 12z EPS has as far as I can tell, completely evacuated the mid month Rosby rollout/warm up. This mean centered on the 17th ( for ex) bears no signature of that any longer

12z GEFs mean has a higher latitude center jump suggested for the 8th. Much better presentation for something in this window comparing to the 00z. 06z interim run did step wise improve so this is a trend. I don't think the operational run is complete garbage - as I've outlined, there's a +PNA burst, albeit minoring but there nonetheless; so there's a background tendency for more amplitude ( correction vectoring - ). ...Not a major by any means -