Typhoon Tip

OH I'm a huge believer in non-Markovian memory in the systems of climate. The oceanic-atmospheric coupling is definitely got a memory where ( probably counter to a lot if intuition) the winter's positive(negative) meanders tend to foretell the summer's higher(lower) - this is more so on the positive side in present era, as the background state is a non-linear forcing that boosts the synergistic result in the direction. This is all immensely complex because it's not the Air, vs the Ocean in this sense, but the emergent property of the ocean-atmosphere quasi coupled state. If that emergent property lends to warmth, well? Sometimes the signal is buried in the noise, making all this an extra special kind of scary... Oh, like the whole world surging a whole degree C (2023) out of seemingly nowhere. hmm?

That +PNA is interestingly getting subtly more jacked with passing runs. Much more and we're dealing with bigger cold off-load at continental scales. Euro was very +PNA a week from this weekend. It keeps the total a little less amped in the ridging over the west, otherwise it's probably digging that S/W more ...

If folks wanna muse... check out that 00z CrazyForecastSystem model known as the CFS. There's a high impact coast for the 11th/12th, which is really in all honesty the same 10th/11th period we've been toying with - at this range, even the shitty models will shuffle within spatial-temporal reasonability. Anyway, the Euro has it too but all these guidance types are highly mutable at this range ...goes without sayin'

Lol. Yeah right. Too many lords of flies around here. The problem is people don’t really appreciate insight/foresight and honest intention. Their primary purpose for being in here is an addiction - haha. I little frustration in saying so.. okay, but if the shoe fits? When you don’t fulfill an addiction, you become a crank - that’s how all drug addicts are. You know … withdraw sucks and they come to associate the failed d-drip (when during the cinema period being more important than the storm itself), to whomever it was that actually detected the possibility in the first place - as completely “fair” as that is. I mean the recognition and so forth was/is usually clad and very possible. Not everyone can score though, because we still deal in a chaotic enterprise ...etc etc

Well ...if perhaps only conciliatory, the D10/11 12z GFS offering is definitely intriguing. This 500mb cinema depicts a powerful S/W morphing into negative orientation, going under long island. The surface is odd...with a lot of primary near Buffalo, despite this ominous mechanical appeal above. At this time, however ..there is a hint if not outright zygote low developing near CC. This is odd/idiosyncratic failure to generate a robust development/commitment to a coastal, earlier...and I suspect it is related to the lack of +PP N of the region as this thing above is evolving. We seem to be a lull in b-c gradient ...but, D7 ...that could change. It would not take much, should this amplitude above turn into a confident trend ( so a bit of a caveat emptor ...), to reacquaint the 10th/11th as a period to watch. I realize it is only 7/8 days out but... as we've been warning, this fast flow type can "hide" events and have them rear up in shorter notice.

Thing is ( not to be difficult ...great write up!), I'm not sure it was a poorly modeled warm layer? I mean, maybe it was that the layer was not exposed enough in the products we're allow to see? I'm asking because maybe we can back into an excuse for this. Namely, the modeled PTYPEs were excessively wet as opposed to white. That was a bit of a head-scratch when given the low path was S of LI, while also antecedence was so cold in the interior - and actually the coastal plain wasn't exactly warm, either. In other words, something in the ptype algorithms must have been seeing a phase change from white to wet despite those observations above. I remember remarking the day before that a possible compromise might be a lot of freezing rain in a band between HFD and BED ..etc. Nailed that! well... I don't mean to take credit, it's just that both things could be true. Warm layer we weren't aware, because the products didn't expose, but it may have still been there, while the cold llv was poorly handled by guidance and so icing resulting. I will say, didn't see a lot of ZR in the ptype forecasts. It was a really narrow IP band separate all snow and all rain. Almost no IP actually... That was definitely seemingly off to me anyway - so we're right to question the modeled low level temperature change. But because we were hidden from view of warm layer ( maybe...) that led to thinking more snow. Having said all that, as I remarked in the other thread ...there was also a quasi observable tendency to NOT put qualitative precipitation actually WHERE the soundings supported snow. So where it snowed was under performed. May be a separate issue in error to the above points.

Nah...they'd hit at a tone of climate for modulation and correction aspects, a lot of which are no longer valid because ... heh, the climate (isn't) changing - wah wah wahhhh

yeah just ranting a bit this morning. This last storm was an offset bust. It annoyed me. Also, commenting that less folk seem to notice when these partial offset pieces of shit storms happen - which I argue is most of them in recent years. I think it's because they saw it snowing at all - not you.. I get it. Heh, you were probably circumstantially/uniquely screwed based on what you were describing yesterday. Anyway, and that suspends their analysis

maybe others did as well but I mentioned I think on Monday that the models were looking rather squally associated with that arctic front. May even be WINDEX sounding but I didn't particularly look. Looked to time rather comically timed for the evening commute heh. I was reminded a bit of the 2003 metrowest gridlock event from a 33F morning commute, perfectly timed squalls that greased 128, then the temp free fell through the 20s and what ensue was tantamount to a demographic nightmare - possibly a historic event from but 1" of melted snow --> flash freeze. I think it was grid lock for 4 hours of something spousal abusing

yeah ... this 'dunging' actually started stinking up the charts some two days ago... You know, it's possible that we're going to end up compression cooked for decent events through the remainder of this blessed pattern - although philosophically, the pattern is not good if it does not actually deliver. I guess technically ...this thing yesterday was a delivery, because it was only December 2 ..etc.etc. But a lot was robbed from it. So it's like bad aftertaste. I just gotta say this... I've noticed that over the last 10 to 15 years ( it sort of really began way back during and post the supernino of 1998, but has become more coherently noticeable over recent decades) whenever the local hemisphere moves toward a necessarily cold enough one for snow, the flow is fucking way too cleanly structure storms. These systems are weirdly racing through the height tapestry like there's less Y (North-South) forcing, and an abundance of X (West to East). Something in the physics appears to be offsetting the Y, and giving it to the X. But that causes these wonky shredded piece of shits with anomalous results. Some produce, sure, but when they do... people aren't noticing things as much - that I can tell - because they're preoccupied in their d-drip of the moment. This last event ass banged everyone and they don't even know it. For example, because people saw snow out the window ( I realize you didn't down there but by and large) there's some tendency for satisfaction to suspend any deeper analysis; the heaviest quantitative precipitation (QP) avoided the snow columns of the soundings. Another example, there were vague at best jet intersections associated with the classic/textbook cyclone model; this is because the speed soaked progressive nature of the basal flow is keeping these waves from mechanically inducing them. It's really technical, but if the translation rate (time variable) exceeds the intergral of the Coriolis parameter, this is why the X coordinate is overwhelming the Y (above). Thus, systems have difficulty curving surfaces - Coriolis is the whole reason storms rotate. Without those "structural integrity", you end up with idiosyncratic aspects - like some kind of blade of 900 mb S flow that was no where else in the atmosphere. haha... might be exaggeration there but in principle - Simple version of all that: the speed of the flow is negating the ability to curve - or circulate as much. Anyway, disrupted structures as an observation is becoming the almost dependable storm profile when it gets cold. CC is going to continue fucking people and it is not going away. Meanwhile, many will dismiss it and blame it on something else, if they are even aware something's off. Enter any myriad of reasons for their misconception here [ ]. Whether we want to admit, understand and get it, ...regardless of anything, the new paradigm is here.

Been noticing that the coldest 500 mb height anomalies ( relative to normals...) have been persistently over our side of the hemisphere this late autumn. I'm curious what those global monthly temperature anomalies (from NASA and NOAA) look like ... the color encoded versions. I have a feeling we have a "CC denial-enabling" (little sarcasm there..) deepest blue plume that's been biasing North America. At present, the tracking at Climate Reanalyzer's site has 2025 flirting with the 3rd warmest per date. 3 days ago ... it 2025 was #1 per date. The curve's been meandering up and down within the top 5 - in principle, we're still turning the heat up on the frogs. So, in order for cryo to be advancing during that it's probable that N/A wins the cold trophy for this late autumn and (so far) front loading winter period.

I think there’s too much volatility in either direction to really justify grousing or celebrating. It’s just a complete coin flip I tell you one thing there’s a numerical bounce in the PNA index between 6-7-8. Typically that’s a good place to nest an event. Yet the operational versions are backing off … keeping the only identifiable wave ejected across the continent too flat and weak. The operational runs don’t want to play along with what their respective ensemble derivatives are telling them they should be. And they are all in disconnect: Euro, Canadian and American clusters It’s one of those situations where something could come back in that period and you wouldn’t necessarily suspect it having given up. We were watching something out around the 10th, but it seems to have gotten pushed out to the 12th and now that one’s gone too. Meanwhile, the ensemble means have the coldest 500mb anomaly, relative to normal, anywhere in the northern hemisphere over Southeast Canada between day 10 and 2 weeks. The operational runs being in this negative interference damping orgy strikes me as pure artifact for trying to handle such a fast changeable synaptic circumstance. The short version? There could very well be a couple of events between now and Christmas but no dopamine for you until further notice. Lol.

when the low gets abeam of those longituds/S of where you describe, the wind may back more abruptly N and accelerate modestly, flooding 28 to 30 F air S-E. Flash freezing is distinct possibility and should be highlighted

S- VIS EST 1 M 28/25 LIGHT NNE W ACC 2.25"

Fwiw ...the last 1/2 hour we went from no wind/dead calm to a NNE motion. Ageo may be an issue in the headache spectrum

Looking more event-worthy this hour ... 27/24 Vis est .5 m No wind; straight down fall Aggregates uniform and small/mid. <=1" acc

I did ... or proposed the band of ZR idea, yesterday. Not surprising for me. It's a 'reasonable' sort of compromise on insisting a 20F DP event-entrance air mass clung to the surface being perhaps too quickly phase changed to straight rain by the models. 1200' to sfc doesn't modulate that fast with flow rates less than 22kts at the boundary pause ( the level where surface drag finally fades to free air/laminar motion). That's an old index finger rule velocity for scouring out dammed air.

aggregate size has decreased considerably. Small and uniform. Cold snow type. Vis ~ 1.5 m 27/23

Steady uniform mid-sized aggregates coming down. For the moment at least ... flawless Christmas seasonal homage. Real Courier&Ives and Normal Rockwellian looking snowflakes. 26

are you still in econ/finance ? just curious. I had some deaths in the family recently. Grief has a way of rewiring the mind. Everywhere I look I only see futility. Nothing matters ... for in the end, must all be swallowed up in the cosmos' ultimate intent to end everything" type of a delicious hell to find motivation anymore. Rambling a bit but I just wonder if we're all wasting our time leaving our passions on the field of life.

You and Ray did you move recently? I thought you were NW of there - why would you of all people move to that warm caldron lower elevation. lol

I like these HRRR recent returns. They seem to compromise between interior cold wall resistance, versus the erosion of lacking +PP situated N. I'm good with a compromise, because it shows at least that the models f'n can see that it's 27/19 in Sutton ( for ex.)

I added to that....in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

It's starting to slowly penetrate my dense skull. If this system was encountering a better +PP N of the region, its affects might not be felt this far N, anyway. Kind of a trade off. The system is ultimately not very significant in the tropospheric wave space. It's positively tilted, and partially absorbed into the background fast progressive/velocitysoaked circulation type. Also, as Will commiserated recently, we're lacking that higher pressure pattern situated N. These fast flow types make static +PP over-topping harder to come by, because the confluent structures break down to quickly and transition away. It's been plaguing our winters for a few years ... this fast shit. It's annoying. But there's a reason for it, and the resulting less high pressure situated N while storm systems move into and/or under our latitude, has become the leitmotif - frustrating for pure snow enthusiasts because the consequence means enter warming implications here [ hint, add today ]. That said, this system is middling and subtly trended less. If there were more high pressure N, I'm starting to see that the meaningful impact may have ended up more suppressed, perhaps too much so to have even risen this thread to 50+ pages. Having said all that...in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

I actually like this depiction for this ... I mentioned yesterday to Henry that I though roughly White Plains-Hartford-Worcester-Portsmouth was going to be hard to penetrate warmth beyond that axis. I've also been scratching my head as to what I feel were bloated modeled QPF numbers. The 06z NAM has abruptly corrected down and is just 1/3 of the previous modeled totals at Logan... while the Euro has been moving the system so damn fast - in fact ..that's the theme with this all along. Real quick hitter. This is a candidate to both be marginally colder than the consensus, while also ... a bit lighter as a total result.