Typhoon Tip

Probably should change this thread's title to something like 'interest has shifted to the 18th'

It's a new one. the apex of winter = the nadir of snow results.

Heh ... Euro's out to 00 hours and already you can tell it's out to f all winter weather event enthusiasts right over

I'm gonna go ahead and take a different approach here, Ray. I mean I'm not trying to abase what your saying ... I'm just going go with persistence. It's hard to knock it. At some point, the onus is on reality to start proving the models wrong. Which ... they may not precisely be right in how it gets done, but the principle/law of least action ( Law of least action is real in physical philosophy btw - ) has been winning too long. Anytime the models put out a solution that at least shows how nothing will happen, time to start taking them seriously.

ho wow man... imagine the deliciousness in schadenfreude if this ukmet run scores. and before you ask, no - it's not coming up here given everything priceless -

ah.. gotcha... i guess we all want what we want from the weather. personally, i do so much outdoorsy stuff from bike rides to disk golf turneys to regular golf to tennis, and boogie boarding... all of which is mitigated by excessive dps. save for the waves perhaps. i've always been partial to those evenings in the summer where the air is kinetircally charged with out the dp weight. 7 pm and there's like this metallic warmth ...the breeze is soothing. pure energy. the sun is no longer blaring down like your shoulders like a 50 lb ream of roofing shingles, and your ballz aren't default stuck to the sides.

can i just interject/ask? does it have to be dews? why not just warm weather.

m'yeah at risk of being sort of callous and insensitive to the sensibilities in the air today, i agree. it's a long slog I pot-shotted a post about 3 nights ago or whenever that was that if this next 10 days fails to produce, this winter can go f itself. ha purely irrational fun but still, it is admittedly not nice to only have cold out doors. i was thinking so yesterday. internal monologue: '4 f weeks until we exit the solar min, then march ass bangs probably with 39 while buffalo soars to 70'

For the moment anyway ... it seems the models are after option B

Here's the 132 hour cumulative total of ICON QPF ... LOL wow. this is awesome...

Of course not... but this isn't about the virtuous journey in pursuit of objective understanding in here. You kidding? You're dealing with weather drama -related dopa addicts LOL The dealer got arrested and didn't make the scene - so now your attempting to explain things to the open-mindedness of withdraw rage. Hey, more power to ya -

Wild guess here but, I'm betting few or no one is going to be interested in this. I'm actually curious at this point if we can hop-scotch our way through this +d(PNA) without getting anything at all like these ICON's and GGEM ideas. This thing has been plagued by this the whole way. As a snap observation, it seems even in +PNAs the fast nature of the circulation foot is crowding and not letting kinematics be conserved at small scales (cyclone) in lieu of the frenzy in the hemisphere...

I noticed this coincided with the relay off the Pacific into the more physically realized sounding domain out west, which began taking place over the last 30 hours ...

Yeah, I'm not even talking about CC... Even in 1888 we would've been cold relative to all, given the circulation mode of this two-month journey. I was just commenting that it isn't really a mystery why we are cold and dry in and of itself. The whole canvas of that? yeah, it is interestingly contrasting. Whether that is a part of GW/CC or not, that product suggests we've had it really really good as winter enthusiasts. Because it seems like nowhere else has had much of a chance at all HAHAHA. how ironic. Obviously, snow is the primary voter issue around this public arena, notwithstanding so ... sure, boned just the same.

I figure you're kidding around but ..still, it doesn't incite much mystery ( it's useful to point this out to the pedestrian -) The flow is just biased in favor of some regions and not in others. That's typical 3 million years ago, today.. and tomorrow. But, we are a whopper exception to the rule according to some sourcing. Here's December according to the ERS tracking. I'm curious about Novie but ... just arm chair recall, I suspect it'd be 75% likeness or more. The early season blocking/front loading aspect serviced these cold regions and it really quite obviously got going two months ago. Bringing that back to the dry continental aspect, one of other NW flow pattern results and consequence - below being the temperatures.

CPC is ending up with a disagreement out there toward the 20th

It appears to be more than a NE region issue interesting

Interference is claiming both in this rendition

wow ... just going over all this stuff today... there is sooo much potential in all this I don't even know where to begin. my god The GEFs 18s first off all ..it's actually attempting to parse the 2nd wave/reduce it's interference, such that both events get a shot. There's an emerging -EPO that could be truly historic. 580 dm heights closed over the Alaskan sector is ...well. whatever. This is pretty exotic in the operational run. I mean it's in the long range so it's just eye candy but that's a what-the-fucker up there

well...that didn't take long. moderate impact ... It's not settled. We're not spiking the ball here. just sayn' I'm actually getting caught up.

That lead aspect you annotated there is part of the problem when getting into this ordeal at sub-pattern scale discussion ... it's triggering and then whisking away the dynamics fuel for the lead's engine.

My gut tells me we're getting clipped by a moderate impact - It'll be by a system that "could have" been truly magnificent, but the interference is probably real and will mechanically limit the this lead's ability. It's well on it's way through hour 90 or so... then, it opens up like that - it opens because there's a non-linear offset. Not you, but to the general user: that is not something you can "see" on a chart. It's exposed via behavior - case in point, the unusual opening back up when the totality of the +PNA is still maxing. There's almost no other explanation for why that does that. Here's the thing.. that 2nd wave is entirely assimilated - unless there's been some sort of breakthrough in data gathering that I am less privy to, the source origin of the 2nd wave's guts are out over the Date Line. If that comes in weaker and/or the timing allows for a bigger gap, the lead will almost certainly grow more intense in lockstep with that correction. If anyone bothers, go back to the big hit by the GFS yesterday and compare the gap between the previous runs, you can see the big hit run was wider... anyway... I think when push comes to shove, the models are not that good? not enough to project 90% of reality when in this particularly unique situation with sudden onset +d(PNA) and handling too balls in the nut sack. The lead wave space is sampling now, and there's some GEFs and GFS and implications, so it triggering the physics enough in the model

So does this thread cover both scenarios? perhaps it should if it doesn't because there's a clear binary dependency going on with these

The problems in all guidance could not be any more glaringly obvious ... It's all exceptionally highly sensitive to wave spacing issues. Sorry to keep hitting this aspect; I'm not seeing many of you writing about it. The diving "2nd wave" is bullying into the trough, imparting a polar oriented correction vector to the flow - trying to lift it up; that is directly opposing/offsetting the ability for the lead wave space to intrinsically dig/maintain amplitude. done deal. game over. that all has to iron itself out such that: a, one or the other becomes dominant or b, neither will be very significant. or c, some minoring event transpires perhaps out of both -... but in this case, the 2nd is a wild card. And Scott's right big time. The baroclinic axis is getting swept seaward and is not recovering in some of these guidance. That was magnificently spelled out in the 00z GFS, which showed an explosion of squally -linear convection out over the outer g-string, gobbling up al the moisture dynamics and running away with it. There's no other way in nature to demonstrate that without y'all learning Navier-Stokes

Lot's of negative interference... It's been plaguing the 15/16 wave space, in every guidance really since the get go. Still, the EPS mean has steadily improved - just not a chunk move - yet ... but this at least a middling impact signaled here