Typhoon Tip

the act itself was political. don't kid yourself

Some may find this Univ. of Michigan study interesting... "...We don't see a time in the past where El Niños have been as strong as today, and we show that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with warming global temperatures,..." https://phys.org/news/2026-08-el-nios-intense-years-previous.html "..This event is superimposed on global warming, and it's likely to supercharge the temperature increase that we would normally see from greenhouse gases. There are forecasts that we might get as hot as 1.7 or 1.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, which is quite a bit higher than the current record..." I've been saying this myself ... the super position of the +ENSO with CC is likely to cause synergistic results - they're naming temperatures. But, it's more broadly implicating then just temperature; put another way, makes us all prone to experiencing unusual event.

Between that ongoing greedy shit down there and that plume of toxic cirrus that pumped over during max heat hour ...that oughta bout sum it up for our neck of the woods

Could not have more perfectly timed a butt bangin' cirrus plume

Right ... and "New America" blithely so named because it stole the land from the "old Americans"

Dolly is highly likely being dry air inhibited when looking at the SAL products at Wisc EDU.

I've noticed that too over recent seasons... I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling. When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if/when it occurs ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, yet NHC has the basin in a nada status. It's because no model has it developing. The models went through an evolutionary upgrade over the last 10 to 15 years. The Katrina's and Maria's of the last 20 years sort of lit a candle under the ass of R&D. Proven in their forecast statistics. They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring of prior generations. I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is. They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map -

A little more encouraged re convection today as the orientation of the fields has a better change for residuals chugging E of the ignition region

Re the Nepal disaster, if real this is something beyond nuts! stunning is more like it it doesn’t just overtop the dam … the dam, the entire facility, and the surrounding valley are all completely subsumed beneath https://www.instagram.com/p/DchKUP7En1N/?img_index=1

mmm no. If you don't know that Twitter does not veraciously provide "data" and "models", then you're in trouble. -obviously... Social media of any kind (really) does not provide veracious anything. Yes, that includes us, here. It's opinionized. Ends veracity. Sure, one can certainly "tentatively" trust some sources more than the others. Yeah. However, everything and anything still must be corroborated against what is known to be factual. Digress: the problem is: that requires energy; that requires intelligence. And these two are subjective of one another. Low energy doesn't lend to intelligence. Stupidity emerges as a primary decision agency. ... Too much population exist now that has become lazy and dumb in their general approach/virtuosity of their daily lives. Thus, too little of either: low energy/will; lacking intelligence.

I'm actually quite interested in the test for RONI In physics, physicists are always chomping at the bit for natural extremes, because it is at the boundaries of what is conceived as possible, that the boundaries finally get to be tested. RONI isn't exactly an offset factor to the prior generational ENSO, whereby a laboratory test can be very readily examined (... droll understatement). In fact, there is NO way to do that. It has to be tested by the vagarious doings of the wholesale atmospheric hemisphere(s) over time. This is one of those times. Agreed. The extremeness of +ENSO definitely puts a plan in place that gives RONI ( I suspect...) it's best test to date. If this were to say go over the unthinkable 3.5 ...then a 2.7 equivalent attack on the canonical climate pathways should be observable. I mean if this ENSO gets out of whack and STILL there were comparatively/relatively minor impacts, then the amount of RONI's current importance/significance gets a side eye look as not being enough - and vice versa. etc

HA ... the most "nuanced" understanding of ENSO is actually that its influence may be dwindling as an agency over winter patterns - that's what the very necessary evolution of RONI is all about. Which is all ironic because that dwindle affects the "general" application - or should. What I mean by that, if RONI and CC are implicating less effective factorization, then logically the nuances go out with the bath water. I'm also suspecting a hesitation if not reticence to adapt to these fundamentals of changing factor-ability wrt the various input channels. Part of that may be a state of the art needing to go up the learning curve .. but it also seems that there are those that have sort of 'institutionalized' a standard canvas upon which to draw long lead outlooks; if having to acquiesce to a notion that their canvas is thus torn/tearing, they're losing their ability to paint - the artistry suffers. Some ego too

I've noted/hypothesized an aspect that's similar to that... Heat in the summers appears to be inducing a resonance feedback that is favoring ridging around the windward sides of continents. Some ridging is favored in these regions at all times, due to basal westerlies encountering boundary layer resistance as the flow encroaches land. It "piles" backward against ... en masse the flow rises over, then deflects N over time, due to upward motion then being worked over by Coriolis. This base tendency is the Perennial North American Pattern, which features a modest ridge over the west that settles out to a quasi trough/nadir as the westerlies are leaving the eastern continent. But the heat expands heights; then superimposed that over the PNAP, the two are in resonance (constructive) feedback). Similarly this is found around Europe to the Urals. The intense/intensifying seasonal heat flux due to CC is then adding to this synergistic resonance. It's quite intuitive and convincingly related to why heat/ridging retrogrades so rapidly whenever we see it episodically blossom over N/A ... Why also western and mid Europe are cooking with increasing frequency during warm seasons... This idea appears to be a deeper dive where the aggregation from these quadratures becomes the CGT bias field. Higher heat enhances drying, again ... more constructive feedback. So the CGT is created to atone for the observable biases.

I'm not sure I see/agree there's much evidence that this ENSO isn't going to heat up more.

That’s the first ‘hot’ run of the GFS I’ve seen in weeks

You realize you just doomed the entire winter by saying this ... right? unreal Okay everybody ... start a thread so we can keep track of every Angus event through next spring -

You forgot the "+9 to +10 will mean we go the other way big time" bargaining

12z operationals appeared to make a coherently warm move en masse on that run, too.

Worth it to mention... WV surplus/transport anomalies available in the general canvas. This would be due to both the increases that are CC attributed, whilst +ENSO and probable STJ input ... working on top of one another. Sounds like a QPF synergy monster if you ask me. Where it rains and/or snows it does with least excuse to do so and heavily. Relatively weaker profiled synoptic disturbances over-achieving.

yet here we are out to the 25th and we're bouncing around 17

heh... ENSO correlations for 300 years do too - but, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that until the gradient locks in and the jet(s) configures accordingly ...etc.

Is this the GFS AI ...or ?

I've noticed it in Augusts ... just sayn'

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present