Typhoon Tip

I'm hoping for more ice at this point than snow. That looks like a sneaky .7" of qpf which is respectable, and if that falls as snow, it's another 5 fuckum inches of white dog shit I don't need or want. At least .7" is only .45 of accretion, which falls short of power going out, and has the upshot of being gone within an hour of sunrise Saturday morning. Saturday could be like today... but ...that looks like there could be a problem with strata below an inversion cap. hard to say.

That high pressure keeps givin' too. Even though it's been smeared out across the N Atlantic in the grave it's going to ruin Saturday. Otherwise that'd be 62.

actually don't cope. I like this variant of Kevin better at this time of year. See .. he's insufferably down playing warmth. True. However, that is WAAAAaaaay better them him intolerably pimping warmth during a time of year when that has never happened like he tries to gaslight it has. If he copes, he'll trigger... then the intolerable shit gets going..

It was a Saturday, 12:15 pm March 29, 1997 up at UML. Over the previous hour I had been looking over weather charts from Unisys internet site; the ECMWF and the MRF 12Z runs were updating every couple of frantic mouse click moments. Over my shoulder, up upon the WX Lab monitor, the temperature read 63.3F ... despite what those model presentations were telling me. I recalled in the moment how an early week broadcast, Harvey Leonard performed his 20 second synoptic rundown before he gave us the numbers. He spoke in deference to "...A strong disturbance... closing off as it is crossing New York State.." He waved his hand in a rotational gesture and added, "...Should this vigorous feature manage to pass under Long Island, we'll be watching this for having much more important implications..." - may not have been his exact words, but after 30 years, that was the gist of it. I remember in that moment's mind while looking over those charts, '...That's exactly what these models are doing, now.' It was one of those things you just knew was going to happen? From the moment I saw that broadcast of his several days before, I knew we were going to end up in that destiny. Not sure why - why we sometimes do this in life. It's so weird. Like ... Grady Little leaving Pedro on the mound in the 2002 ALCS. The 'Sox were still up 5-3, just in the 6th, but when he stabbed our hearts with that decision, one that would prove so pivotally instrumental in ending their season, we didn't have to wait for the 9th inning of that game to prove it. We just knew. Moments later I walked across the University Ave bridge that spans the Merrimack in some of the most utopia sun drenched spring conditions physically make-able on planet Earth. It shown intensely through a random smattering of picturesque fair weather cumulus, leaning their shallow turrets south like the tipping masts of dinghy race. That sky and those clouds in no way shape or form inspired what would transpire a mere two days from now. Lawns were already well green. And a curious bumble bee bobbed temporarily by me like something out of Disney. I thought about just how non suspectingly oblivious everything about that reality, and the scene within it, were. This dichotomous memory came back to me as I stood in under that sun during lunch ... though there is no storm like that coming, just the idea that it was the way it was, outside, just yesterday, and now it is 51 here with steaming streets under fervent spring sun, and knowing that 4.5" of snow followed by more glaze is due on deck ... it's amazing how we do this revolving door seasonality in spring around here.

posted a chart an hour ago to show this but the synopsis of having that newly arriving polar high through QUE, dammed in, having also arrived over this impressive cryosphere.. the low levels should at least "look" colder than the warmer solutions are giving us. It's interesting that the NAM is as warm as it is; you'd think it's resolution in the lower 300 mb would be colder. I wonder if the NAM being a weaker QPF is limiting systemic cooling or something.

FIT finally punched through. 46 but the last 5 deg of which were in the last 40 min. DP up to 36. Under full March sun ( the street melt water is steaming for the first time I've seen this year including that 52 sunner on Saturday, so we've crossed a sneak sol threshold) there's no way in physics snow is not melting today.

I suspect the GFS has the right idea here, amts of QPF notwithstanding. But the synopsis of having that newly arriving polar high through QUE, dammed in, having also arrived over this impressive cryosphere.. the low levels should at least "look" colder. It's interesting that the NAM is as warm as it is; you'd think it's resolution in the lower 300 mb would be colder. I wonder if the NAM being a weaker QPF is limiting systemic cooling or something.

Temp at FIT hasn't budged in an hour. 40 F sniffin a bust ?

I kinda feel like features are over amplifying in the daily guidance' for that range. But like you...unsure. I have objective reasons for thinking that though. 1 the models tend to be over amplification, always, in the D7 to ... Nth range. It's matter of how much, be it 44 or 4% but there seems to always be a time-dependent tax paid by the time whatever is being monitored is D5 <-- 2 can you think of a better month to f* up amplitude prospects in guidance (anyway), than a month where guidance' handling of ginormous +d(solar), and it's modulation impact, is suspect in perpetuity? Typically forced neutering of the patterns is more of an April phenomenon.. but there's likely to be some of that in March, particularly nearing and beyond the equinox. seems adding up those two inference techniques should constrain one's ideas - unless your IneedOlanzapine, who sees a blue contour over Baffin Island and throws a emoji at us like we're supposed arrest all actions and tune right in.. 3 is more of a super synoptic observation. It seems this trough and move toward +PNAP mid month is setting up a dreaded compression type. Normally I'd say that's an H.A. look there around the 15-17th ... in fact I think I mentioned that a couple days ago if mem serves. Any, I just see that trough in the ens means as setting a elephant's ass down on a trampoline, where the heights are bursting out both ends... That's means there huge velocity, which as we know...is really a destructive interference in principle. But here's the thing ... if 1 and 2 are right above, that means the trough might actually correct back into a lower velocity, whereby S/W's can be conserved. So then we go the other way ... All and all? "unsure what mid month brings"

Oh, right... LOL That also reminds me, that December 2020 massacre.. I think some places lost 18" of pack in a single night. I guess maybe we can draw a distinction in "melt reasons" - if nerdy enough. heh. Like, if it's raining with 50 mph gusts at 55 F... you could decap Greenland with that. Kind of a different sport. This coming up will zephyr winds under sun with temps (maybe approaching 70) and DPs probably nearing 50 - who wins and how much

Clearly we are struggling with this inversion. Probably won't last the whole daylight. At some point, we see the temp surge 5-7 but everyone's at 10 am was struggling to touch 40 on a day that I feel pretty confident, if there were no snow pack, we'd already be in the mid or upper 40s heading for +3 to even 5 F MOS bust. This is sorta related to what Brian and I were just discussing. Unless you have a lot of mixing/turning over of the atmosphere, still boundary layers aren't really how to warm the air over a snow pack. That said, the DPs are rising with the temp. It's just 40/34 at FIT. This is the warmest DP ( I have seen ...) combined with above freezing air in months really. It may have happened ... but not with a post solar min intense Equinoxian sun. If we do burst into the upper 40s with DP say 38... water will be flowing from the fields.

Yeah, perfectly stated.. I like the reasoning with the Oct sol comparison, too. I do that every day in my head in spring... 'today is Oct 8 sun' as an aside, part of me grins like ...why do that. I should just know at the scalar point what Mar 4 solar is, but for some reason, the autumn comparison helps. weird. Anyway, no problem slashin' T's there. I think the best part of that 10th and 11th will be watching perhaps the fastest land-snow retreat in history. heh

Heh... I haven't railed on about BDs since 2010. I know that. I was late getting my Met head wrapped around the total mechanics of what BD synopsis is/why ... but once that light turned on - Understanding goes a long way to ameliorating once vexations. Those are 25 dollar words to say that if you get why, it's not as frustrating nor annoying. LOL BDs are a decoupling of the synoptics in the vertical. Basically, around 250 mb above the surface ( expressing altitude in pressure) ...so ~4,000 feet(1300 m) give or take, the bulk troposphere no longer cares what's happening below that level. Down here in the basement, the air is moving NE --> SW, and above that level the pattern may only look vaguely like that could even be taking place below. These become disparate circulation modes. This is caused to happen because of topographic layout over the eastern continent. Everywhere E of the eastern cordillera, particularly E of the Berks to White Mountain axis... there is a drop off in elevation down to sea level. Given the normal trajectory of the westerlies ( flowing WSW or W or NW over those elevations, causes a "curl" vector which points back SW underneath as the elevation descends. That vector is overcome much of the time... such that we dont' have a BD flow always. But, at other times, such as when there is +PP ( pressure pattern) over Maine/GOM/Maritime, that imbalance will take advantage of the vector immediately. Rollin' on back SW the air comes, because air always moves from +PP to -PP. That action of doing so, is the uncoupled state. There are reasons by the +PPs set up. They range from S/Ws moving SE out of Quebec toward the lower Maritime, where backside NVA/downward motion piles the air. There's a cold front up there that passes by and piles air precariously close to the vector ... so that can get the air rolling. The other way is just aggregate cold Labradorian current modulated air density, which is intrinsically +PP in a narrow lowest level. If that sniffs the vector, it'll start rolling back SW. Kind of a fuzzy different between that kind and seabreezing. In March through early June really ... both these kinds of BD means are aplenty. So anyway ... in understanding all this, heh. It's built in.

You can almost see that decoupling on the cinema ... there's a sw moving subtle kink in the geometry of the isobars sliding down the coast behind that weak wave's exodus, like moving a dowel under a rug. That's a BD for the MA.

Not quite a redux coming up next but some similarities. That looks like like a narrower snow production, possibly from Rt 2 N. Those areas in N CT up through the SW 'burbs of Boston probably don't fare so snow well. But they'll be cool and cooling off, so IP fest? Not a ton of either tho. The whole thing is moving really fast. There does appear to be a tiny 2 hour period of tuck potential.. It's interesting because as that shallow near surface slosh back is happening the total troposphere thicknesses are rising. Our regional topography can sometimes force the atmosphere to decouple, where the lower 150 mb may as well be a different planet

I'm wondering a couple of things. one, will all this snow really be down to just piles in time. That's only 6 days away and the specifics of the CMC/GFS/Euro ops offer enough clouds and mean frontal position headaches to perhaps level the melt potential some. I mean, I've seen it approach 70 over a snow pack, sure. But that's with howling S gales and tons of steam rollin off the fields in firehose melt off that will be bare ground in a coffee break. I'm not sure it is environmentally possible to put 80 F over a geographic pan dimensional cryosphere and keep it sunny, when heights are really only marginal for mid 80s. There's kind of a 'absurdity limit' lol. two, if so ... does this approach on te 10th/11th period possibly expose a flaw in these AI versions? ie., not defining or integrating that aspect of the environmental precondition. For that matter, are we abundantly confidence the standard versions are doing that proficiently enough. I suspect the answer's no on the AI's, anyway. They still illustrate like 1993 MRF runs with that larger fuzzy granularity. That doesn't look like discrete systemic awareness really. Thing is... even the operational runs are bursting warm sector surge through all across those two days. The CMC with it's own 570+ dm plume now. Probably just go with whatever model's most conservative with temperatures until the ground snow is much much less.

My sense is there’s kind of like a contest in some people There is none It was always going to warm up and then likely cool back down We’ll see what that entails on both ends of that, but there is no contest

Ayer, MA

S est vis 1/2 mi 3.5" 27 f

S est vis 1/2 mi just under 1" 28

In terms of personal druthers? agreed - I can objectively admit to this winters cold and snow. But personally - I know I'm probably in the minority - I can honestly say I did not like it. I did not like the deliveries. I did not like the fact that an extraordinary, historical bomb bumped SE in the magic moments just enough that a comparatively select few got the big goods while we pretended it was historic out side the smaller geographical area. I did not like the fact that there was snow on the ground deep enough that we suspended our disk golf season. I did not like the cold... we don't need that much cold to get that much snow...and we prooobably could argue the cold is why some of these storms shirked for bigger taxes, too... Didn't like the winter. Prefer that when those 70+ers arrive ( assuming they do) next week, by then the modeling/indicators would have collapses in favor of the inevitable seasonal change, and we would in fact not ever see this white shit on the ground until after Halloween.

OH I get it... just pointing out the silliness of it. Truth be told, all that grading BS is is how well did one's dopa get its hits. Who cares ultimately if one gets their rocks off. Everyone has a different number for weather boner inches anyway.

that's funny we're musing over that.. I was just texting with some Met buddies a little while ago how this year really seemed to us to be a "snowy year" Granted, we're not dyed in the cloth snow zealots, but in principle, we just see this year as having had snow on the ground almost always. Two huge storms.. and lost track of all these tweener event/constant reminders. I like the numbers method frankly. If it is 100% of the seasonal norm, that is an A+ tough shit otherwise.

Isn't 93% and A/A- ?