Typhoon Tip

This winter's been just morally repulsively enabling to CC deniers in this region of the world. HAHA

To Will's point from earlier check out the 12z GFS's eastern Canada high 1050!

Or just question the compos mentis in having this CFS model even in existence too . heh.

the 12z "ICONt model anything worth a piss beyond D4" guidance ( so tfwiw - ) has a nasty ice wall signaled for the 6th. The GFS spent a couple of runs doing this recently too. Think it abandoned the idea at 6z however.

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th

no kidding. 100% of possible so far down here. MET MOS 41. Noooormally I'd suggest at this time of year we add the perfunctory tick or two to the high, but with all this white shit underneath ... DPs are low so melt will be slow but the sun will breach that critical angle for maybe 1.5 hrs at zenith this time of year, and that becomes more of a direct melt assault for that time span. Probably a lot of dripping and some street gutter brooks at that time. I'm ready... I could use a 55/48 overnight rainer to really eat this shit down. We'll cross the flooded bridge if/when that happens.

2016 - 2020 seemed to feature a balm blast every Feb, Mar, or Apr in that stretch. Just sayn' not sure what the conversation is otherwise haha

It's an interesting op for temperature nerds like me. I'm hugely into the diurnal recovery stuff in the spring... for some weird fetish. ha This snow pack is pervasive and deep, and fresh and white and like a mirror. Albedo is about intense as a second sun... astronauts in orbit have to wear sun glasses when passing proximal out our earth coordinates. That will impede some heating potential in a static atmosphere. But this atmosphere should be moving some... not sure how much that mixing offsets (if any) any of this. There's some competing processes there for negative and positive feedbacks. Interesting. I suspect we are colder at night in the interiors when decoupling these three nights. Where cold accumulation over a cryosphere is deluxe proficient and so forth.. Then in the mornings, calm with nape sun but 900 feet over the tree tops, it's WSW flow moving along at 15 to 20kts.. The NAM sort of suggests this inversion offset to warming potential - tho taken to make the example, only. The BOS FOUS grid 54000843631 00714 182013 43030400 60000785726 00010 162412 42040500 This is Saturday at 12z (7am) and 18z (1pm) for Logan. The wind there ("2013") is SW to WSW at 10 to 15kts in the middle boundary layer..about 500 feet over top the Prudential Tower, at 7am, and persists at 1pm. The set of bold on the right is the temperatures at three sigma levels (distance from the ground in atmospheric pressure): 980 mb, 900 mb, 800 mbs. You can kind of use these as loose proxy for various interpretations, for and against.. In this case, note the 980 ( near the ground), is 03. That means 3C. At 900mb, about mid way up the boundary layer, it is a degree warmer at both intervals. That's proooobably the NAM being "indirectly aware" of the limitation at lowest levels due to albedo feedback. I don't think the model does any kind of discrete environmental initial sampling like physically asking whether atmosphere is standing barefoot on a frozen puddle, but it probably is getting a detection at the grid scale for some limits, some how. I'm not sure... but, with a intense albedo in the region, some limitation intuitively fits. Regardless, Saturday ( and the RH levels in this data above suggests mostly sunny), will have light winds that at times is seemingly calm, with nearing equinox sun power capable of burning Aryan youth. It will be the first day that felt that way since probably last October.

Oh yeah ... BD madness too. In fact at a larger seasonal consideration, I'm wondering about that April/May period with the local SSTs being down.

agreed... I'm starting to lean like we need to get past this poorly seasonally timed warm synoptic surge. Here's the thing - experimental. But it is one I have growing confidence for, tho the sample size is a bit light. I have noticed these late winter/early to mid spring warm burst synoptic patterns that started happening around 2010+ have had a tendency to decay into -NAO. In 2018, we were in fact warm burst prior to the NAO collapse and onset of a couple of blue beauties that year as an example. It's just something I'm leery about as we head into what looks like > 50/50 odds for another early warm synoptic pattern scenario. Get a load of 588 dm heights as far N as the Del Marva out there 270 ...it's long way off... so much of his still hypothetical, but I do have growing confidence that succeeding "too much" of this signal early might lend to -NAO last hurrah later on

I'm sensing the non-zero probability that the blizzard was the last storm we'll see. Low probability for now, but the thought popped in there when seeing that this impending pattern change that others are attempting to psycho-babble erode the significance of..., appears to be surging in a little earlier than the 10th - which was the previous index suggestion. Still not totally sold on the timing aspects. Amid yesterday's runs this earlier notion started happening, and it probably led to those couple of GFS idea for an icing event along the BUF-BOS transit... Early warm push deals with lingering cold, etc. However, the 6z is gone, and the wave producing that has been re-positioned N-W ... It's all an homage to what and where the hemisphere wants to do and go. May have to wait out a warm burst and see if there's a later month blue-bonnet spring special. Otherwise, these indexes and operational tenors, et al, are signaling the end. Note, I'm not discussing the magnitude of the warm up... It's a recognition of the pattern foot and realism for March being a transition month with hot sun (hello). Which is unfortunately for the winter fans gathering around old man's winter bed, bad pattern health timing.

It was two storms ...otherwise, the same plight as y'all up there. Just two - I maintain my philosophical approach to this winter, that both are true. We were cold enough, most of the time.. We had snow on ground, most of the time, but, the winter under performed, relative to those environmental verifying circumstances - particularly the cold enough aspect. Know one's asking, but I feel pretty strongly that the pattern(s) required to sustain the cold, is the culprit for only two storms...otherwise, suppression reigns. I would be willing to venture the idea that any cold patterns are intrinsically limiting organized storm success. Basically ...the two we got punched through the limitations by other means - and I know what those were in each case. People of this particular social media engagement definitely don't want THIS explanation for why cold patterns are limiting snow. The background warming world is causing enhanced gradient, whenever the jets dip. This leads to anomalously fast basal flow velocities in the geostrophic ambiance. It's a limiting factor. It's not a preclusive factor. Speed in the flow, out side of S/W spaces, lowers the absolute value of the d(vorticity) in the means. Lower d(PVA) results. What remains doesn't have enough time to trigger all the necessary cyclone cross section responses, before the disturbance has moved off any given region, The Jan 25 overrunning on 'roids was a planetary correction event. It was really the only successful MJO wave signature penetrating as far east as the Americas I've seen since ... a long while actually. The wholesale lower latitude mass fields surged N with an actual STJ response, and ran headlong into an imposing polar index scenario, on-going. At those scales, speed's easily overcome. It's there, but the whole thing isn't needing jet responses in a cyclone machinery/necessity... It was a flop over isentropic lift event, at very very large scale. This recent blizzard actually saddled into a temporal window whence the flow relaxed. I noticed this the week prior to the event, that the GFS was bulging the PNA heights out west toward the E, and the heights over the Gulf o Mex were 4-6 dm lower in that window, the preset velocities 30 to 35kt at mid levels. That's a receptive environment and when the trough arrived it was able to mechanize a bomb.

How about 5" of basin rain into this pack at 55F whilst the ground beneath is still frozen mm? mmm?

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

People should learn what indices are, what they mean. It would offer a huge manifold of knowledge, from which one may then understand operational models with better predictive skill. In this case, the indices (derived by weight the ensemble) support the emerging/ steadily increasing warm signal that we are seeing in the operationals. It doesn't mean that will go on forever until Earth's sitting on the surface of the sun... At some point the signal with "max" and or suffer daily idiosyncratic aspects not presently seen... But in principle, the totality of it would mean the end of winter and the onset of spring. Yup. Right now ... you didn't ask but I'm fine with holding hyperbole to 'melt and mud season' - use that as a basis and then add if (and we probably will have to - ) we need.

Your realize that is "10hPa", right ?

The image itself isn't likely intended to mean what the 'PV will cause', per se... It's most likely the authors just using a pic as click bate in general. Think art - But you're right. I'm willing to bet that if this society can have the "compos mentis" to believe this demon should be in charge, they can certainly be dumb enough to think that's real. But that's guaranteeing the click bate works, huh. Both ends of that are assholes.

False and/or bad information by those that don't have it right

Although the operational Euro's 12z likeness to the GFS operational is quite impressive for 260+ hours. Wow... maybe so, huh. I mean, sometimes big signals come over the temporal horizon of the modeling earlier - the underlying supporting physical circumstances have a lot of prominence in the flow. It's the same reason "Sandy", and "1993" and probably a handful of other notables of lore were also remarkably early signals that stuck around the guidance. No reason why that can't happen with heat burst synoptics. maybe. We'll see. It sort of hearkens to a climo Omega Block - more typically found in latter March and April.

I think it may be over cooked. Admittedly don't have a lot of confidence though. I've seen this in the past where these early season modeled warm bulges end up 18 hours of misty warm sector. I've literally seen a D11-14 run of 75 F days end up verifying one day of 62. What happens is the progressive footprint sped up the frontal advance 1 hour/run for week's worth until the first 2 days are claimed. Meanwhile, the wedged in BD air mass is 18 hours too fast to erode out in the guidance. No one wins: no snow; warmth gypped. This one does have the index/ens spacial synoptics backing the -PNA, so we'll see. I'm perfectly happy with melt and mud and leave it at that for now... which no one wins in that boredom either. Ha

Everyone's hedging in their posting content, as is typically the case heading into March. It's made worse now because we just clocked a blizzard near that amorphous seasonal boundary - some years more blurred than others. Right now though, folks are triggered, all ginned up for more snowy storms; certainly reticent to face the fact that models and indicators end things ... pretty abruptly really on or about the 7th or 8th. Not the 10th... not 'hopefully we can get one of these events thru the 15th' ... No one's asking for objectivity that wakes them up in the middle of their white dream but that annoying sound is the alarm clock. Again, yeah .. 'bowling' events can happen. Valid aspect/risk of New England springs. Farmer's gold blue snow. Whether that happens or not, the season ends this particular year by nature's choice on or about the 7th or 8th. Before that, these events look like seasonal coughers while the breathing shallows.

Still way out at 270 hours so tfwiw. The operational GFS is an amplified version of the persistent ens mean coverage I and others have been tracking. Whether that happens above or not... -PNA. I suspect at minimum it all means we transition into melt and mud season. Basically the dawn of spring. Relax ...it doesn't end snow chances - the return rate on end winter by mid March is something like 6 years - don't quote me; it seems that way. That means there as 82% chance it snows again? heh somepin like ghat The timing has moved in, in bulk modeling... I was thinking this was after the 10th, but it's pretty clear that once the 3/4th moves off, trends have been pushing for the Rossby roll-out prior.

Re the blizzard, it in fact made a late adjustment toward reality. It was just slightly too far NW of what actually transpired the day-ish before, and then made a 'within error expectation' bump - which is obfuscated by the fact that there was theoretical room for NW adjustments prior to that. It was a bit of journey, the total error of which - to me - was irrelevant really ... I guess I'm saying that late bump was a no fault - considering that the other global models were pretty bad until just 60 hours or even 48 hours out, comparatively. Not accounting for the rest of the winter/other events.. .just the blizzard. I was rollin' eyes and annoyed when the bump back SE triggered street trash.

NAM had 0 QPF at Logan on at least one run yesterday. NAM is NAM is NAM but just sayn'

S- est vis 1/2 mi 17F