Typhoon Tip

yeah there's an IVT sig on the op Euro... GGEM's actually spinning up a new cyclogen with that. both these models have more N/stream attempting to run up after the escaping low pressure, and it's helping to lower/expand back west as that's happening.

for some reason ... i feel better about this opinion coming from you than the representatives of the NYC law enforcement lol

whatever's the culprit aside, that's a major event in and off itself It's maximizing potential given structure. Perfect E inflow 850mb, over a 920 mb ENE frigid air mass, with 700-500 mb flow running up SW-->NE over a steep isentropic surface You could produce a foot of snow out of a 1010 mb low and one closed isobar with that. geez.

Yeah, I was just gonna type that. heh that said, there's a lot depending on the N/stream orientation in this - it's almost purely a geometry problem, really. If the vectors post the elbow of the N/stream are oriented W-E ...we're fucked. If it's even 15 deg headed N of due E we're probably getting fuzzy chalk dust snow up to HFD... go up from there.

Looks like this GGEM's gonna carry the 30th bomb ...or close to it judging by this 500 mb evolution. It's the index storm we're waiting on the dailies to get around to ... not that they have to of course.

That super storm in Russia is an astounding story... just arresting

Mixed ideas on that.. That has the look of a classic/climo southern ice/mix storm. As a matter of climate course those more often stay safely S of the ~ Mason Dixie latitude. It depends how much is conserved of the jet mechanics as that quasi S/stream wave squeezes E under the continental N/stream. If there's more there, than there's more feedback that subtly but crucially elevates heights over the west Atlantic via feed backs, while it also generates more coherent low pressure/mechanics. That appears to be the pathway to getting clipped this far N. Less, and this stays a southern classic. Either way ...they're likely getting their winter storm.

Heh ... the suppression hasn't been an end to end issue on the guidance. It's really only 2.5 ... 3 days of it, roughly 23-26. just sayn'

Has a typical south icing event climatology look to me... that is how they get their winter down there - arctic outbreak then overrunning gets going. It happens that way, but if the model's too aggressive with the cold loading et al the overrunning and wave transit latitude could be higher. Sure.

the differences are really easy to detect in the mid range. the AI versions have less cold exertion (less deep layer total mechanics therein), such that a vague S/stream wash runs up farther N as a wave/series/overrunning around the 25th. the standard versions preclude that from taking place because as they depict, an overbearing polar-arctic branch jams a confluence to an usually deep latitude across the conus ... utterly suppressive. Which is right? the AIs would get cold but seasonally so, then a durational ( which is hard to do in a fast footprint but given the flow orientation, about the only way to do it is this shallow azimuth rise coming E) multi regional winter event. the standard versions would plummet the NP/Lakes, with an somewhat attenuated eventual arrival here, but dry.

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

best spatial-temporal window is still 29/30/01 ... but the PNA moves positive from the 24th - roughly GHD

vaguely defined deform band right over me down to W side of ORH is actually snowing pretty good with pour growth mini aggs

Hopefully this happens barely 3 days after the deepest season defining arctic nadir pattern...

this morning's band down there was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

that was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday. It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. i don't. at this point i have issue fatigue with this event. almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore. hahaha. no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality. kind of a compromise we'll see

yeah, Vortex95 mentioned that earlier… I asked if that had any norlun signature in the sounding to it … Not an exact match, but did kind of look that way. No answer, but I haven’t gone to look myself.

I’ve seen that before… That’s 2 to 3” Then, if you get five on top of that boom, you’ve got a warning 8 inches in 24 hours I think that’s the rule don’t quote me

It’s interesting that the NAM blossom’s little region of pre snows… The mechanics are very similar to what happened today actually… then the system comes up underneath and just melds right into that

NAM was west of 18z

That’s a good description for what we had today. The particles falling really really slow. Even the big ones floating. Yet I get out there and it was like the best snowball fight snow ever.

You’re not wrong about that…

“Relax man“? - you do succeed at one thing, dissuading me from even wanting to read that thing

Nah not seeing a reason for negative attitude on that beyond the 25th no way… First of all the ridge axis associated with that positive PNA is perfectly climatologically aligned in terms of longitude. Anything that gets ejected each of that feature will end up west of that trough as depicted in the EPS mean that Brooklyn’ provided. But it’s not just that spatial reasoning and a-priori aspect, the index is numerological ie pure mathematics. It’s like we’re mathematically sounding an alarm and we have at least a reasonable footprint in the spatial structure out there? But you know yeah ..,we have the last 10 years of Stockholm syndrome and so non-believability is too easy because of that. I can understand that If we change the indexes and that scaffolding starts to mutate, etc., no problem You know, frankly, I made the glib prediction back in early September that we would have an early loaded winter followed by a sputtering January and then a flowery February. Granted there’s a lot heuristics with that … Still I think it might be difficult to hold onto this favorable look that deep into February. Much beyond the first week you guys are on your own.

Meanwhile the numerical indices are even more aggressive with the month's end -week signal. Don't mean to come off a way about it but ... I'm not personally worried about a random Euro run or two, two weeks before said index window ... Based on those, this operational run is an outlier for it's last 7 days. If the indexes change that's another story but the current divorced operational Euro is really too excessive for belief. Either it corrects ... or the less likely, seldom seen wholesale mass backed indexes go toward a single operational paranoid run. haha