Typhoon Tip

You know ...I was giving that, that 'pre spring' aspect some thought. I know exactly what you mean as I have been seeing/wondering that too. However, I'm not sure if you or anyone might recall this but... nearing the end of that odd ball N. Pac blocking node between thanks giggedy and early early Jan, we were modeling something similar to this with periodic ultimately faux SE ridges ... We did mild up in there, but not very convincingly so before the era of -EPO kicked in. We've pulsed some 3 or 3.5 times with that index in the last 3 weeks since, and we've registered some decent wintry chill and at last a real snowfall out of it... Anyway, point is, I'm not sure this isn't some Charlie Brown set up for spring/warm enthusiasts just yet. I don't think there is a proper SSW intrusion --> down propagation event... but I think a low to up variant is certainly on the table, and it doesn't matter? really if you're doing that, your freezing your balls off either way... in fact, the top down version is probably less useful to winter enthusiasm ( just for the sake of discussion) because that time-lag's a killer going into March. It could just not show up when it is that late. But anyway, I definitely want to see some legs in the form of continuity in a warm appeal out there. Lord knows I want it... but just objectively

18z GFS has a 522 dm closed low passing under LI across the 14/15th. Not a sub 516 dm hyper gradient rampaging speed bomb, which looks really good until the reality of outpacing the Coriolis param shatters dreams. Relaxed flow underneath it too. Much better chances in that look than the previous renditions. All that canvased negative interference is gone. Wow. Lowered average geopotential basal flow - how the hell this model is pulling that off in the face of unmitigated seasonal persistence... It's probably related to the N/stream kicking its ass outta here. Good fuckin riddance man

I'm down at least a half foot on the yard level. huh

Agreed ... this brings up another point for me ... Ray and others may know this but, in an ongoing raging -AO winter, which this ...might qualify - objectively we'll have to see if that ending +d(AO) is real or not but it would predate any SSW time-lag coupling enough that a positive AO period could temporally fit prior to the forcing being realized. Otherwise, the advent of an SSW and actual downward propagation - a prerequisite requirement in the correlation - may not mean anything to a season already heavily downtrodden and cooler than normal resulting. Yeah, protracted wet snow on mud winter is not subjectively preferred. LOL. For me personally...would rather that positive AO above herald in a different sort of seasonal relay.

Not trying to burst the meme bubble ... but until that registers in the models as successfully to and thru the 100 mb level, it's unclear (likely not) that there's destined to be a wholesale sigma coupling that eventually/really involves the troposphere. That may yet happen, but support for that is very vague for the time being. 300 hour GFS from recency does shows up heights height response over the Alaska sector, so we may just need to bide time

But it is a matter of a scale. There are events that take place regardless of indexes; they may seem like they were anti-correlated when they do. However, the restoring forces were required by smaller mass field disruptions, taking place intra index. I personally call these sub-index events.

Idealistically ... but correlations are not 1::1. You can get a coastal despite and have it just be a realization of the lower probability schemes. Same reason why you get popped by lightning walking out to collect the mail - just because there's a .0000000034% chance of getting electricuted fetching the mail, shit happens. The take away ... sorta like what Brian was just saying, is that your moving -1 to +1 SD in the PNA domain, which HA owns that work but it's applicable to all domains frankly. Switching from +EPO to -EPO (so going the other direction) favors cold and storminess in Denver. Moving from +WPO to -WPO, with applied time lag, favors lowering EPO and/or rising the PNA ... (complex relay), both of which can then implicated cold loading into the N/A ... The theme here is changing indexes from a fair weather time, to a correlated not fair type, tends to be heralded in with an event. They are "restoring" events.

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much. The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere. It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...). Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff. It's all sketchy to me at best.

I just recalled this.. the stricter interpretation of the H.A. thesis, which really applies everywhere in nature ... whenever going from one state of a system, to a new state, requires events. That really all that is. Anyway, the -NAO differentiating ( or rising) to a +NAO did have a minoring statistic correlation with precipitation over eastern N/A. So technicall ... that +d(NAO) out there ... it's a little bit of a stretch though, because that particular correlation is really more overrunning related, whereas the current signals by the Can ens appears to be a vague early detection of Miller B

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for... neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to hopes and dreams of being kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and one solitary run of the GFS (06z) leaving you messages on the date site. Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time. -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO. wait there might be something else to NAO hmm

Yeah I'll take your word for it. I don't personally vibe with them yet... I just don't have enough of a feel for their bias typologies/under what circumstances and so forth. All a keep hearing is that they are 'primitive' ...which has to be the case because we know they did not exist a minute ago. I can tell ya, this latter aspect doesn't exactly make it move for me... the only times I looked at them, they give the appearance of circa 1990 MRF solutions, with fuzzy QPF that is cartoonishly large looking for events only 48 hours away. It didn't impress me. I'm more "intrigued" if we want to call it that ...that the Can ens cluster has such a bright signal from 270+ hours like that. Should that hold and the GEFs and EPS ante in ... no one will remember.

here's your VD transmission day event in the Canadian ensemble. GEFs and EPS have nothing coherent above the background static noise left over after the big bang for their handling between the 14 and 15th. The numerical indices have no interest, either. In fact, -d(PNA), +EPO, neutralizing NAO support at minimum alleviation of cold. I think we're seeing that pretty clearly enough in the general cinemas of the operational models out there toward the middle of the month. There is/was one operational run, the 06z GFS, as I'm sure this remarkable storm attentive group of people have already exposed. So, it is what is for the time being. Not much support from most of what's out there, with a short list of sources doing more.

Model's trying to end that way though

Just off loaded all the snow from the solar panels in one big avalanche.

Boy did that MJO fail

To early to establish any confidence but it's the first of the season, post exiting the solar minimum, when the extended GFS can't wait to tell us here comes spring

probably it will attenuate some 12 or more % in the guidance over the course of the week.

The quickening flow is well past documentation and researched/papered ... I've supplied links over the years. One can go to Phys.org or where ever access point they use and bother looking for themselves at this point. Plus, why do we think all those air-land speed flight records have been set in recent decades re west-->east? It's not a question of whether the flow is fast or not.. Fiddling with Navier-Stokes, agreed - but the basic wave form of the Navier Stokes equations ( which are processed in the physical make up in the model), has the U component variable - which is the static velocity of fluid medium within which the wave propagation takes place. Increasing the value is going to do something to the wave spacing.

Looks like a 12 hour shot of high winds and biting cold ... then the wholesale pattern across the continent has a better than random chance of a cold relaxation. The N/stream backs off the incursions and we see 540 dm thickness back more convincingly to 40N across the conus ( not just a narrow spike but with breadth) for the first time in quite a while. Unclear what this means for specific anomalies/dailies, but at least a moderation in temperatures should and would be consistent with the current telecon vision together with loss of N/stream direct

What the fuck is cutter season in the first place

as it is, that's a damaging CAA wind event

Based on multi-seasonal trend to only sore up butts in the face of interminable power? ...right, it must be impossible. that said .. heh, the primary sensitivity on that series of charts ( 12z too) is the western ridge flatness. If that goes up higher in latitude, that thing will get under our latitude, minus perhaps 10 or 15% due to compressed flow absorption, but that thing has so much immensity to it it could sacrifice 1/2 and still choke off NYC/BOS from the civilized world with that f'n look.

sufficed it is to say ... should this beast happen to correct and pass under L.I., that's our season defining event right there. not this last one ... it would double totals and destroy from wind impacts in one simultaneous horror bomb.

1045 mb high against a 975 mb low is a bit stronger in CAA gusts than 40 mph.. .. heh. Just sayin' that's a damaging CAA event there. Probably b.s. tho

I was looking at these indices this morning... Before anyone ( or the straw man ) goes and says something dim witted like 'see what the indices did for us, today', just be made aware that the indices ferreted out any kind of storm event on the 1st, at all. As a primer, these indexes don't guarantee one's back yard is full and their dopa circuitry triggered. But they do elucidate the periods of time where one should be looking. Better than not having any means at all... Having said that, the indices don't look particularly good. But they don't look absolutely abysmal for winter enthusiasts, either. The basic spread looks like alleviating neutral AO, -PNA, +EPO, -NAO by the 15th. If it were not for the -NAO aspect, which is also fairly elaborately illustrated in all the ensembles in their spatial representation of the hemispheric scaled synopsis at mid month, I would be buckin' for an early spring. Really early! I don't trust any warm signal post 2000 era of hockey stick climate bursting to actually fall short if given any excuse to stand up tall. But... thankfully for winter enthusiasm, the -NAO ( which is a fine complementary phase state for -1 SD PNA btw ), that imparts a different play ground. I would think overrunning circumstances. I don't like the coastals in the guidance, tho. I suggest most of those fail. Or, if one succeeds, it likely to be a NJ model type narrow corridor system. Two caveats, 1 ... NAOs, even in the ensembles, routinely present certain challenges to prediction at extended leads. The amplitude, or even existence, both. It could be that it all redistributes to a -EPO. I've seen -NAO failures/reposition to Alaska a couple of times this year as a matter of fact. So we'll see. The 2nd caveat is suppression...if the -NAO goes ahead and materializes with that -PNA underneath, the flow could very easily torpedo with velocity and all that - it's not exactly something we haven't felt jammed up bums since CC rape began many "moons" ago.