Typhoon Tip

Yeah they flipped hard... SW gusting to 22

the N is actually calm - they're fighting though. Temp bounced to 88 which is on par with downtown anyway, but they back to SE at 7 ...altho I doubt they gusted to 59 unless they picked up some jet wash. ha! flip floppin

They may be about to flip. The ESE is down to just 8 and their T is up to 82.

Agree in principle ... but, I'm noticing here about 30 MI into the interior we've flipped the BL, because we're doing WSW at more than just wobbling leaves. When it's been like this in the past with these sun grown mixing depths, sometimes we get a late W wind burst through the city and Logan kinda cheats a high off the urban fart between 6 and 7. May even be counter-intuitive but what's happening is that that the gradient, albeit weak, is mixing down when max heat gets to critical and the BL turns over. not every time but late highs are thing out there

00z Euro was trying to finish as a significant move toward what you describe. It also was warm run over all. In fact, I'm not seeing a lot of "cool" either. I think this summer's sort of pattern dictated at this point. Like we'll be shifting between 65 and 90 and not 40fuckum7 and 65

DPs low but it's hot... 89 ... that's about the cut-off where lower DP no longer saves... Hot day

yeah, that's a good point. I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE. Maybe orographic forcing offsets some

I will give you this much ... waaaaay back when the dinosaurs ruled there was this model called the ETA. It's the ancient ancestral root of the present era's NAM species.... At every point along a species evolutionary past it had specialized abilities... In completing this metaphor, the ETA of 1995 was a spectacular tool for a very specific lesser known skill: convective initiation. That's basically timing when the convective temperature is reached and if there is any inhibition in the region... it is successfully overcome. We would cross up those metrics and it would say 1:45 pm (say) ...and at 1:38 or 1:57 there it was, the first cell squirting it's load on radar. That was a lot of generations ago and the present day NAM... yeah, there's heredity there, but I don't know if it shares in that same unique ability like it's ancient forefather.

88 ... delta of 40

impressive to see Logan sustaining an 81 on a SE 9 kt wind

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering - i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation. That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude. Just don't ...

It has unfortunately been exposed often enough, times of misguidance wrt to drug and vaccine therapies (regardless of why) that it's naive and ill-advised now to rely on in-office recommendations, out of hand. You instead should nod thoughtfully and tell the physician not at this time. If the they push ... particularly in that sort of situation, then you respectfully decline and tell them that you will be completing some independent research 'like you always do' before arriving to any course of action.

mm far as I can tell it's only the NAM doing that. Wouldn't trust it until more support ... but not impossible, no. I suppose if you really want it to be right so that you can engage and hopefully win another in the varied petty competitions over weather-related statements that goes on in here, there's nothing wrong with relying on it to make Kevin wrong. LOL

83 ... 35 delta

30 F recovery here so far... 48 to 78 It's only 9:30

oh..heh... just realized no one's in here. Geez, better go make sure the Iran-Russian-China axis didn't smuggle a nuke up the Potomac

I wonder if these low wind open sky lasing days over the nearby ocean will elevate the SSTs some

Heh...it's rare to do this once with near/at 0% coverage, but this is the 2nd day, back-to-back, that sat presented this at a regional scale

Looks like the GFS is still just going to ruin Sunday even if it is fed the necessary grid data that would not ruin Sunday lol. The Euro and CMC salvage that day with a cleaner fropa - though couldn't rule out terrain enhanced CB dappled around. As Jerry and I were discussing yesterday, the cold push behind that boundary isn't nearly as impressive. Weak as modeled, taking us back to seasonal as opposed to that 48 F shit. Regardless of the GFS' beady-eyed OCD agenda to destroy mirth on weekend days ... it's own MEX machine numbers are still near 80 from BDL-FIT to ASH-MHT, fwiw We probably have finally graduated to 2026's summer. We'll see what it has in store... After a possible run in with renewed heat middle of next week, there may either be a transient seasonal cool down.. or possibly we evolve a quasi Bahama Blue pattern.

48 was lower than I imagined we would be last night. huh. Considering machine numbers tickle the chode hairs of 90, a 40+ is gonna challenge some delta records for the date.

good line of higher CAPEed convection 21z on Saturday outta do the trick.

Yeah... it's the yellow shit. I think that's pine ?

Anyone that's under a CB negative CAPE is probably getting a 1/2" or more in 20 minutes, tho. Regionally? doesn't look like a soaker for now but there's a couple days

ha... no one is "using" anything. understood - that's not the purpose of the post.