Typhoon Tip

the s. hemisphere the tropics are lewd while the antarctic itself has a scary trend line originating over the last 1.5 months. It'll likely correct down some - we hope. The scalar value at the end of that rust curve is ~ 4th or 5th overall, to date. You don't wanna see early positive anomaly investments of that look before their annual recover is set to get going, in about a 3 weeks.

yeah... no one's been told before that the NAM has a N-W biases beyond 24 hours... heh

Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak. Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive. The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand

I think they got that wrong... (this is a bit lengthy so if don't wanna read it all it's all good) The expansion of the Universe may only look entropic as the final consequence by the limitations of our human capacity for observation/understanding. It's entirely possible, admittedly a conjecture, that the expansion won't inevitably stretch so far that all actions, even the excitations of the quantum scale, are forced to smooth to nothing - when that happens, that's an inability to manifest reality itself above the "Quantum lens". No excitations, no-nothing exists. Imagine a tarp with wrinkles and as we pull outward in all directions along it's edges the expansion naturally would force all wrinkles to flatten. That's a metaphor for the cold entropic hell finish idea of accelerating expansion to oblivion. What could really be happening, oblivion by our limitations, is that the Universe is expanding because there is always new excitations being added into a 'concept of a Universal volume'. Of instrumental importance there, happening at a faster rate than the existing one's and actions decay. It's almost like the Universe is actually still "big banging" - like it's been occurring for the past 13.5 billion years. There's a funny pun somewhere in there related to how new life necessarily needs this... An implication arises that is interesting. The Universe might necessarily be expanding to make room for the addition. Add air to a balloon, it expands. However, since if and when we don't see the new excitation emergence (which we don't) then entropy in the localized scale creates an illusion of supremacy there - of course we are inclined to assume what we can observe as to being the nature of the whole. However, in this re-imagined aspect of whole-nature, decaying to pure disorder still occurs slower then the emergence of new excitation, by the time the integral reaches the edge/boundary of the whole volume of the whole Universe ...entropy was actually increasing at a slower rate then the advent of new excitation - in the ongoing big bang. What is a creepy implication falling from this philosophy is that all entropy is, is a measure of finality of actions at smaller scales. So yeah... we (meaning all actions at less than the expansion of the cosmos) die, perhaps necessarily so, so that the Universe can make room for new excitation emergence, so that it can go on existing forever. This is an analogy for life as we know it, too, but first ... you might recall our discussion from months and months ago about the emergence of reality from an analog engine. Basically, there are 3 original colors of reality - then mixed essentially forever to form an infinite spectrum of colors amid the 'reality color wheel'. No one thinks brown looks like blue - but the heredity from red, yellow and blue combinations eventually arrives to either. And if we look around us, we just might see or sense once in a while this kind of "infinity" is almost like a scam in originality; but it gets caught in the act. I like this analogy of the tree and the river to help visualize (I believe we may have even touched on this in that prior conversation - ). If we look at a very high resolution of a river's complete water shed, then, look at a defoliated tree against the canvas of a grey winter sky, the river's water shed looks like a virtual reprint of the same visible specter of the tree's structure against the sky, and vice versa. Everything about nature and reality is a repro and/or repurposing like that. Reused structure hidden by end result-unlike contexts - perhaps existing so that context identities may be created - the emergence of reality. So the life analogy... we exist with our awareness and consciousness because of trillions of cells that live and die in a fraction of the time we totally exist. This is a tree-river inheritance, a new color as it were ... that is inherited and repurposed by a Universe that doesn't really create anything in reality, uniquely. It's all repro's only differentiable by context. We, and in fact, everything exists, because the Universe has excitations vs decay occurring, so the model of our systems are deeper than mere analog - it's just inherited. The new excitations are new cells... so long as cell existence out lasts the rate of decay, we continue to exist. The balloon's expansion occurs because the same calculus (whatever that is..) that drives the emergence of excitation --> expanding cosmos, is parental to the reality of both. Back to the original discussion point. To summarize, it is possible that entropy is just more clearly evident at smaller scales; human limitation to what is coherently perceivable then guides the faux impression of supremacy. But it may not be in control of destiny. Whatever is introducing this - re-imagined conjecture - emergence of new excitations, driving the expansion of the cosmos, is allowing it to persist. Everything are the children inside.

I find that hard to believe. I'm not sure these guidance have a very good clue there. Why? they are less reliable when climate is in fact in a state of aggressive d(C) so is unstable with the averages moving. Any climate inference is thus suss. I just think these seasonal tools with climatology baked into them when we have global temperature surges that were also, not predicted by climate-based modeling, whilst also we are at historically high global thermal state with no offsets apparent to the global system... I dunno I also am suss that the subtropics are going to lose the global thermal anomaly around those latitudes so readily. This is likely to fall on deaf ears ... because it's lowering the potency of d-drip, I know ... but I'd be cautious with that.

The August global t mean appears to be moving the wrong direction ...

LOL, tru ...guess I was thinking along the dopey lines of losing winters for 85/60 chamber of commies.

Heh... too bad we couldn't move the snow temperature from 32 to 52, huh

I bet 72/52 may even feel a bit chilly to some after recent acclimation biasing -

The tropics have expanded more to accommodate heating - this is balancing the wholesale integrated PV=nrT ideal gas state. Increasing the temp --> increases either P, V or both, on the left side of the equation. That expansion is the Hadley Cell ... But this is not linear. Generally, gases expand more significantly the higher temperature. Thus, the colder Arctic domain can increase more temperature, before it begins to expand ... The atmosphere is free to expand in the horizontal and upward direction. It's obviously not expanding through the ground... The disproportionate expansion at higher temperatures thus causes the HC expansion, and the temperature only shows a more modest rise - it's a trade off. More volume as thermal energy is increasing, the register of the actual kinetic temperature is slowed. If the tropics were in a closed container, it'd have risen more than what is being measured.

Mmm

Yeah, but what is equilibrium when d(C) is not only positive, but d(d(C)) at that. The second derivative being the acceleration quotient. That means that any return state is returning a higher level. So if the idea is to return below the warmer state, that basis has changed higher. Climate doesn't move that fast, no. But as 2023 evinces ... the jolt by .5 and holding there, probably was a two-fold factorization of the Earth being behind schedule in warming - so a bit of a restoring force, while also having the longer term slope of changing positive.

some clever research assistant - if hasn't already happened - will gain their master's thesis approval by demonstrating that there is a statistically significant occurrence of pattern return state that features ridging about 1/5th the distance around the Globe, downstream of these oceanic quasi or semi permanent warm regions ... and why. Hint, the answer is NOT because the ocean is driving the pattern. The impetus here being, there's something in the hemispheric scaffolding that's now different; among other aspect, also effecting the SST distributions over large total spacing. It seems to me ...well, I'm curious to see, if that repositioning ( which I noticed myself just yesterday - ), means an end to the rich recurrent -EPOs us winter enthusiasts have enjoyed during these cold seasons since the 20teens. Great. 1, accelerating CC 2, on top of which there is a super warm ENSO blossoming 3, while there "might" be a signal that stems the N/A cold conveyor source. Forky's startin' to look like a genius. LOL because he can apparently add. like, (1+2+3)/3 ... ? Not that anyone's disputing a warm winter - hell, even in the "cold" ones we seem to be closer to neutral (ave climo) - probably owing to the elephant in the room ... But above and beyond that, the warmth could be extraordinary relative to, particularly should these aspects working together create synergy. I've been noticing a lot of climate -based tools with outlooks implicating -NAO ... The philosophical problem I have with using that in a seasonal outlook is a yes and no. The yes, there is an unarguable correlation between ENSO and NAO - particularly in Jan/Feb, that is true. But the no, no NAO timing and placement can be defined using that correlation.

Climate Reanalyzer "looks" like the curve is about to do a cliff dive during these 4-weeks heading into the climo nadir. That's one data source - no claim as to its accuracy or how well it jives with what others use. If the former is clad, it will be interesting to see if that dive happens and the curve catches up enough to be in the top 5 lowest. The AO index is supposed to be modestly negative, which is somewhat of a warm signal up there.

Today may feel "hot" Looks like 89's are possible but DPs slipping into the mid or low 60s may neutralize the HI. It's light wind under unobstructed still warm to hot sun vibe. These opportunities for maintenance summer heat are slipping away tho, now that we're out of solar max so if one is a summer enthusiast best take in the moments. The typical attempt to realize summer once it is too late in early September is showing up in guidance. Mentioned this the other day and there it is. The deep range signals (indices) along with a couple of Euro/GFS op. runs, are right on queue. 594 dm heights in the first week of the month. It will bring about non-historic but still irritating heat, and an utter block of any tropical. Perfectly wrong from what most want - haha

Huh? pretty sure I said “on a personal note” of course it supports a point of view then, it’s called an op ed for a reason Don’t pin “tendency” on me though Like it’s some sort of general tact? I’m on the short list of most objective contributors. During analysis is a different written effort; I don’t play favorites between cold versus hot versus wet versus dry versus storm or no storm

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here. It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too. Like two factored: seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon. "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing. Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down. Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really. I mean it may be that the definition can apply? But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal. 'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas. Whole nother weirdness... Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same. And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

It's either going to peak early ... or, peak in the climo window, which obviously then begs the question over how extreme it'll push - does the early growth implicate a greater amplitude result. It may sort of plateau? Like I wonder if there's a ceiling - in fact, there has to be. There's only so much thermally available in the global system. That is why I suspect a plateauing of sorts might be observed if this rise continues to be absurd so early... We hit a max earlier in the autumn and it levels out..etc. The thermal input into the ENSO warm mode is barrowed from the surrounding planetary system from two sources. The first being additive by solar flux. The second being a complex heredity. These sources can only give so much - and they may in fact be down(up) maxes due to variable ongoing constraints year-to-year. In this situation, the antecedence is definitely providing an impressive warm heritage. What, with the global atmosphere and oceanic ongoing empirical data hovering the curves in top 3 months and months on end, occasionally toeing them in first place along the way. It's like a dad that is 6'9" tall, and a mom that is and unusual-for-female height of 6'1", having a son together - gee, why is our kid 7'1" by 17 years of age. Enter NBA scouts... When the winds turned, the background available source and state is thus so favorable ... it's like an explosive warm ENSO growth. But, that kid isn't going to be taller than Robert Wadlow's GOAT altitude of 8'11.1" at the time he had grown to death basically. Just 22 years of age. Actually, the gentle giant required ankle braces that were specially fabricated by cutting edge early last century prosthetic science ... This caused an abrasion sore that got infected and then he died of sepsis. It's thought that he'd grown so much that his circulatory system was inadequate, lending to the infection fester. Little bit of useless trivia... haha. Can you imagine seeing a human being that is just one foot less than a basket ball rim?

Intuitively it has to be higher. Not intending to condescend but it occurs upon looking at this, the background state is accelerating two-fold: once over for the fact that CC has not been linear over the last 2 to 3 decades, but now especially with the 2nd reason in the onsetting supposed record warm ENSO. ENSOs are correlated with warm global 'spikes' in temperature means. Superimposing these two expectations over one another lends to 'adjusting' an increase in any derivatives that describe that system - a transience certainly being one of those...

You didn't ask me but I suspect the US Drought Monitoring product should be taken with a grain of salt due to the subjective inclusion of personal scientist(s) opinions. The product is a smoothed sort of mean between machine/climate/man Heh, a an afterthought, what the last 20 .. 30 years of overly exposed information has been revealing about humanity is that how we used to think of as stone by the time information became ubiquitously known, is and always was suspect. We can't trust PHDs of science... Judges of the Court ... CEOs? forfuckumgetit! Some are well intended, but even they are human - the rest are giant piles of agenda-guided rectal plaque. It's all made interminably more frustrating because well crafted social media content is also so often completely wrong baseless crap that 90% of civility doesn't possess enough analytic capability to adjudicate ... It's kind of ironic that this being the age of information is really evolved or mutated into the "age of disinformation" The problem with these last decades is that (and probably is a good thing because it never should have been ) it teaches us to distrust both specific people, forces us to ponder how far does that extend to the over-arcing apparatuses of the "institution" too - Now, with "Epsteinian" collusive forces that are (c'mon man, don't be naive) clearly integrating a reality that we are in fact guided sheep, corruption in all forms and colors - opinions are part of that - is now only a incompletely certain to morons. So yeah... we can trust the US DM "a little" more than RFK's MAHA health reforms. Anyway, the drought guide is in part machine, and then modulated by opinions of officers in the subject. This latter aspect in kinder terms leaves it open to debate. But regionally? the farmers know

I think I'd like to see that just because we don't seem to get coastal storms worth a shit nearly as often as yester-decades. The general dearth of ... something, anything really to substantiate and qualitatively argue for even having this hobby has become very challenging. Otherwise? have fun with 4 and half months in dark mud season stern.

On more of a personal note ... if this ensuing "winter" isn't going to deliver - which frankly, having a CC as a launch pad upon which a warm ENSO of this ilk is sky rocketing off of, heh ... ah - good luck. Sounds like a warm synergistic massacre.. Not helping that we've had this upstream active solar disk fire hosing the 150 thru 1 kPa depths over the Pole for the last year. Anyway, I just would rather not have any of it because 4 months on mud as a season, in the dark, is some kind of middle earth dystopian shit. I'm not saying I don't have appreciation ( and hope ) for fantastic winter patterns and consequence. But having a passion and fascination for winter weather events, quite necessarily needs to be fed winter events; it does not include the dreaded 42 F winter. The problem is, it takes a denier at this point to not sense the growing dearth of decent winters. Or at least it seems that way. A stab at an objective opinion here ..., let's see: CC + history-making warm ENSO --> plausible synergistic emergence between those not necessarily meaning cold (duh) + solar-cleansed stratosphere + this ... ...occurring under a lowering boreal heights? Explosive potential. Absolutely! That unfortunately does not include a cold or cryo-profile, necessarily. By and large, the last impressive winter, IMHO, goes all the way back to 2014-2015... and it wasn't actually the whole winter. And, it didn't really involve the larger community? Mainly a SNE/CNE affair. We just had 3 1/2 weeks of utter carnage in those sub-forum regions during February 2015; so overwhelming ... the constituency of these regions think that winter was phenomenal. I think that 3 1/2 weeks was a "planetary storm" - a concept pushed forth by a theoretical Met back in the last Century but damn! that was a great argument for his conjecture. Not sure that was a whole winter, though. I guess in fairness, getting 150 to 300% of normal whole season's snow, amid lung aching cold ... probably should qualify the whole winter? I don't need all that. Just give us a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern. There'll be potential to do more along the way. Maybe one will blockbuster. Otherwise, if I were god, I would make it 60 F with frequent runs at 70, in some sort of freak show scary warm time of it, so that I can continue with outdoor activities and just deal with 16 hours of darkness days. Also, I would look up all my enemies and afflict them with a kitchen renovation project - having been suffering this fuckin thing going on weeks now ... I've seriously gazed out at sunsets while deeply reconsidering life choices.

Northern New England really is the last hold out for unrealized climate change… For down here… even though we’re getting short changed we are still at least acclimated enough to think 44 feels like winter