Typhoon Tip

That's the other thing ... people are referring to the times as -NAO ? Not sure that applies to next week so much. The fact of the matter is, the -NAO is rising pretty rapidly from now through that period and beyond. Oh wait ...when are you guys talking about ?

It depends... Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60? We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other. Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now. Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. It will correct very fast if given a reason. Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through. Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...

As others noted... weak system... 6 days away, a stronger more physically exerting moment in the atmosphere would probably show more comparative value among the three ens means, gfs/eps/geps than what we see here. Three different looks, what could go wrong?

yeah, that's true. fast/speed is you know this is a good use case to help demo for whom ever needs it, how speed gets in the way. you can get a sense of that by looping how this SPV zooms in - that's a lot of mass to be moving that fast se, and so it then low captures ... after which it foists it back NW. It's like grabbing a running back from the back of their jersey for the tackle. That's the deep layer vortex actually outpacing the lower levels. I tell you what tho. Even with this whole mess trying to work out in a fast field, if the western heights were to amp a little that might offset that tendency enough for this to become a player. Not trying to hot dose anyone's dopa for the day just sayn what needs to go right.

Let's just imagine for a sec the op GFS is onto something with the emphasis shifting from later on the 14th/15th, to an early amplification by the 13th. That 500mb vortex does actually capture this guys, and turns into a white 'cane for D.E.M. That's in the stone's through for us from 192 hours... just sayn'

Not that continuity is typically better at 200 hrs. Ha! Models shouldn’t be judged really for that range. just have to wait

This 12z operational GFS ... very low continuity over the last several model cycles. Out of nowhere, completely edits the cinema and goes from the left, the right from 00z to 12s. I mean there's some recognizable features there, but they are hugely reposition(ing) and changing amplitude ..etc... We are have bad deterministic value for the time being...

It’s like the local synopsis is attempting to organize into a norland but before it can get there the arctic boundary t-bone crashed through the medium like the swipe of an etch n sketch

mmm... I don't see a problem with not being impressed with this winter - but I suspect in some minds ... a lot of minds perhaps, there's still some failure to adopt and model their thinking and expectations with respect to the present state of the Global climate. If they did, it would do two things for their perceptions. 1, remark about what it actually must be in order to get the temperatures/causal cold loading to be what it has been. Suggests an impressive offset when considering, it is far in a way more likely that any given month will look like this below, than the other way around... 2, relative to that ... they would see that with the rarer opportunity to sustain such a cooler winter profile being realized, it thus kinda sorta feels like a failure to "make hay when the sun shines" ... or not... this aspect is probably more debatable. But we've had snowier winters at less negative departures. Start with that, and then it does seem like "wasting cold" so to speak.

AI products are presenting un-good continuity from what I've just analyzed spanning their last 6 cycles. why any preferences and or judgements are formulated out of those tools, for the time being, is a mystery to me. Oh pleezy weezie, with sugar on top

It’s probably outside of AI range too I’m sensing you guys are putting way too much weight in those tools and you don’t even know how they’re actually run. Yeah they might’ve done a couple of events, but the sample size is too small. My advice pump the brakes at day, 11 or 10 or whatever it is

I'm wondering if my memory is divorced from reality a bit on that... I was mentioning earlier in a post that I thought that Jan warm up turned out not very convincing - if it was +10, it was very convincing. I'm wondering also if it was a +3 in NYC and +13 up by PF type of deal, too? anyway, the reason my memory is the way it is is because I remember a lot of mornings we refroze the 3.5" pack that was incredibly resistant to melt that whole period. I think the last couple of days ( seriously ...I remember taking note of this) it finally succumb and disappeared. The having snow on the ground much of the way is why I thought it as not so convincing.

It's a springy blue bomb, really ... it is... that's a marginal- profile type of event. -3 at 800, 0 at 900 and the surface - just in my imagination correcting for random suspects...

Gosh I love pigs

Well ..honestly, that bold is unstable and probably one or the other yields... about 90% confident it would be the -NAO... I can't stress this enough.. the NAO is modulated/forced by the wave termination mechanics downstream of the Pacific planetary signal. Not lecturing anyone here ...just sayn', it is not occurring just spontaneously out of random emergence. It is dictated by the former planetary circulation gunk. Such that having that block emerging in the N. Pac ...it's likely it pulls the rug out on the -NAO... It may not entirely... but we probably see something like a neutralizing NAO domain, while the PNAP across the CONUS sort of biases toward a -PNA but fails really be strongly so with any warm dividends one might climo-associated to a -PNA ...while late cold loads western Canada ( destined to stretch the field..) This is predicated on the N. Pac continuing to manifest, though. We'll see.

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... Oh it's not helping, sure. But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles... That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters... it's identical. This is also coupled to the ridge showing up in the 100 hPa level in the Strat/Trop monitoring, which also did the same thing back whence and a lot of folks were fooled into believing it was an early season SSW... just like there are those thinking similarly now. But it's not clear to me because it is not, frankly, a true up--> down intrusion/propagating event. This is just a hemispheric shuffle... or re-shuffle... The ideas of a warm post mid month ( as I warned yesterday...) might be in trouble as these patterns repeat over longer periods.

That was a significant move by the GEFs comparing the 12z to the 18z for the 15th. Some deep members sprinkled around the spread area with a mean closed low passing underneath

I mentioned a few pages ago… But it’s going to be a torch unless something similar takes place to what took place nearing January 20, which was a resurgence of blocking that the models were not really handling very well – in other words it might be a little unexpected, but we could prove this to be another interlude more than an actual end to winter - post the 15th That question needs to be answered.

You know ...I was giving that, that 'pre spring' aspect some thought. I know exactly what you mean as I have been seeing/wondering that too. However, I'm not sure if you or anyone might recall this but... nearing the end of that odd ball N. Pac blocking node between thanks giggedy and early early Jan, we were modeling something similar to this with periodic ultimately faux SE ridges ... We did mild up in there, but not very convincingly so before the era of -EPO kicked in. We've pulsed some 3 or 3.5 times with that index in the last 3 weeks since, and we've registered some decent wintry chill and at last a real snowfall out of it... Anyway, point is, I'm not sure this isn't some Charlie Brown set up for spring/warm enthusiasts just yet. I don't think there is a proper SSW intrusion --> down propagation event... but I think a low to up variant is certainly on the table, and it doesn't matter? really if you're doing that, your freezing your balls off either way... in fact, the top down version is probably less useful to winter enthusiasm ( just for the sake of discussion) because that time-lag's a killer going into March. It could just not show up when it is that late. But anyway, I definitely want to see some legs in the form of continuity in a warm appeal out there. Lord knows I want it... but just objectively

18z GFS has a 522 dm closed low passing under LI across the 14/15th. Not a sub 516 dm hyper gradient rampaging speed bomb, which looks really good until the reality of outpacing the Coriolis param shatters dreams. Relaxed flow underneath it too. Much better chances in that look than the previous renditions. All that canvased negative interference is gone. Wow. Lowered average geopotential basal flow - how the hell this model is pulling that off in the face of unmitigated seasonal persistence... It's probably related to the N/stream kicking its ass outta here. Good fuckin riddance man

I'm down at least a half foot on the yard level. huh

Agreed ... this brings up another point for me ... Ray and others may know this but, in an ongoing raging -AO winter, which this ...might qualify - objectively we'll have to see if that ending +d(AO) is real or not but it would predate any SSW time-lag coupling enough that a positive AO period could temporally fit prior to the forcing being realized. Otherwise, the advent of an SSW and actual downward propagation - a prerequisite requirement in the correlation - may not mean anything to a season already heavily downtrodden and cooler than normal resulting. Yeah, protracted wet snow on mud winter is not subjectively preferred. LOL. For me personally...would rather that positive AO above herald in a different sort of seasonal relay.

Not trying to burst the meme bubble ... but until that registers in the models as successfully to and thru the 100 mb level, it's unclear (likely not) that there's destined to be a wholesale sigma coupling that eventually/really involves the troposphere. That may yet happen, but support for that is very vague for the time being. 300 hour GFS from recency does shows up heights height response over the Alaska sector, so we may just need to bide time

But it is a matter of a scale. There are events that take place regardless of indexes; they may seem like they were anti-correlated when they do. However, the restoring forces were required by smaller mass field disruptions, taking place intra index. I personally call these sub-index events.

Idealistically ... but correlations are not 1::1. You can get a coastal despite and have it just be a realization of the lower probability schemes. Same reason why you get popped by lightning walking out to collect the mail - just because there's a .0000000034% chance of getting electricuted fetching the mail, shit happens. The take away ... sorta like what Brian was just saying, is that your moving -1 to +1 SD in the PNA domain, which HA owns that work but it's applicable to all domains frankly. Switching from +EPO to -EPO (so going the other direction) favors cold and storminess in Denver. Moving from +WPO to -WPO, with applied time lag, favors lowering EPO and/or rising the PNA ... (complex relay), both of which can then implicated cold loading into the N/A ... The theme here is changing indexes from a fair weather time, to a correlated not fair type, tends to be heralded in with an event. They are "restoring" events.