Typhoon Tip

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Yeah, SPC is taking the typical NE approach in stopping short of our lat/lon for slight and period 5s. But I can imagine that will need to be extended NE.

Mm...it sounds sorta like you're idealizing against a Plains profile in the back of your mind. Not trying to tell you what you're thinking- just seems that way... If so, no. We don't do that around here - not very often anyway. EOF 1 and 2 swarms. In 1954, we set up 4,000 foot tall stove pipe finger of god and sent it drillin' for oil down near Worcester... In 2010...sort of hybrid of that in Monson. Otherwise, that's apples to oranges for low LCL events. High shear/helicity profiles spin even meager updraft motion, lower in the troposphere. Which ... not all the models concur on that profile, admittedly - some have the warm front clearing house (NAM). However, I'm also using an a-priori in knowledge/experience. Warm boundaries don't just waltz on thru like the models are doing Thursday morning. So I could be wrong there. If the warm front, incongruent to our climate as it may be, effortlessly and without resistence ... sails on past by 15z, we'll see the blue tinted hill side under blazing sun-wasted torrid miasma of 76F DPs because of weak sauce lapse rates and insufficient triggers. But there is one other option...hm. You know, I'm not sure this is an analog - probably not at discrete analysis... but it does remind me of June 1987 ..I think it was around the 10th or 15th.. A morning warm front with elevated convection that actually became severe ... sending warned cells through midriff ORH county ... It all passed off by noon with abrupt clearing. The warm front cold front wedge was then in place. By 1:30...full sun soared T over TD ... 86/73. An explosion of thunderstorms erupted up the Mohawk Trail W of ALB, and as it came ESE ... it evolved into a small Derecho ( probably would have been a big one if it didn't move out over the ocean later that evening...). It came down Rt2 with routine gusts to 70mph, quarter sized hail, and a lot of power outages during the evening.

Watch Michigan the day before ... tomorrow afternoon and evening. There's a little known 24-hour lead/lag Michigan to Massachusetts telecon that exists - and in this case ... the chart progression makes obvious the reason why.

That's what really popped out of the data for me was the shear... About as high as it can be - Anytime I have a chance to lose my audience in here, I take it! so here we go: whenever you see high arctan angles ... ex, .... resulting from curvature of the pressure field ( the circle), and you are in the SE quadrant of a total cyclonic envelope like below, you have large +helicity where ... ...is located. Throw the fact that there's prooobably a warm boundary subtended/cutting straight across the tendency to turn, with it's excessively focused frontal induced curvature sending local tendencies into insane SRH... that becomes a total constructive feedback that sends roof tops on a magic carpet ride. Now... consider the 570+ thickness advection clear to Brian's latitude, with 576 testy hairs tickling the pike... with QPF smeared around the illustrations? That means you have very low LCL's to draw any rotating columns down into the boundary layer. ...as though that's even needed given the former constraints. my god I mean ... may as well just put a tornado warning for everywhere now and call it a day

I think it's one of those days where satellite is lying everywhere. There's more black than white on vis looping yet I'm getting something like 1/4th sun per hour

Not to overstep or bypass your statement. It is interesting that the single one year overshot so far. More on that in a moment... For me, the bigger story is that despite that record holding as long as it has, the year-to-year deltas since have in total averaged negative. In fact, an aspect that's been going on for decades prior to 2012 for that matter. Global ice, not just sea ice, began receding around 1850 - altho it's accelerated notably since 2000. So, a rather low bar of intelligence can infer we are at risk of another plummet at any time. However, I think what 2012, and the 2023 (unilateral atmospheric/sea-temperature coupled explosion of thermal imbalance) both implicate is troubling: the global climate system is capable of moving in unpredictable thrusts. Not in a steady, predictable, thus easier to plan and adapt, linear ascent. Even though 2023 seemed to cause a pause, followed by flurry of pimped out memes, there nothing in the climate reconstructions that suggests that wouldn't happen. I mean geological history is not smooth nor a predictable practice. So epistemically it should never be a surprise to anyone. When's the next thrust?

I realize there's a drought meme popularity right now. It is vying for second place to this other sweeping grand Disclosure stuff, where is apparently going to cause a global 'ontological shock' risking civility meltdown. Yeeeah. We'll see about thaaat. If there's a meltdown it's prooobably not coming from ... whatever that means. But in the meantime, in so far as around here? - absolutely 0 physical manifestation of any problem with water deficit. We go through this every year. Yes, promoted by the U.S. Drought Monitoring, then set forth by their primary sales agent, Kevin's emceeing the desiccation destruction of the world... We read this same sentence every year, though: "We go through this every year" Yet, y'all just can't wait to pack the reception hall again. I guess we're an easy audience - I don't just mean us in this social media. I mean human condition of 2026 and the last 50 or so years of this ongoing socio-technological evolutionary experiment. We've become stimulation junkies for it. But when you look out the window at any moment, that still quiescence, that is what is happening. Everything else is human fabrication. Human actions. Human interactions. Yet this latter has become reality as though reality is unstoppable. 100% of everything that the world presently faces, at macro to individual scales of potential harm or crisis, is 100% human caused. Including, Climate Change. Ironically, a consequence that is largely construed as the lie. Despite being utterly empirically undeniable. This is the dangerous paradox of our times. There's this "right" to flout objective truth. It might even be a defense mechanism. If one cannot believe any of it due to the loss of public faith, they'll turn to what gives them comfort. Basic psychobabble. In either case, we've somehow arrived to a time in history where the freedom and entitlement to believe whatever one wants, givens them a right to deny objective reality. It's bad too... you point out 1+2=2 to commoners at this point, they nod and return to whatever piece of shitness they are. Penetrating truth into anyone's complete nonsense has become almost insurmountable. So they carry on.. litigating in favor of what they want over objective reality, and while not accepting the latter, that is the real harm. This is an elegant self-impost extinction event - one that is probably caused by our own innovation. Well... maybe a some are coming around... But I tell you what, in my aggressive opinion ( LOL ), it is still largely and unanimously denied. Until the ballast of humanity stops doing what it that is causing the problem, to persist means there's too little acceptance. Kind of analogous to an alcoholic bargaining. Bargaining in the context of alcoholism refers to the mental process where individuals admit to a problem with limited intent ... a time in which they continue to engage in addictive behavior. This form of rationalization is a fallacy of control, which is really a psychosis for minimizing its impact. This can lead to a cycle of relapse and worsening symptoms, including psychosis, which can manifest as hallucinations or delusions during heavy drinking or withdrawal. Sound familiar? Like Disclosure I saw the movie yesterday. As science fiction art it was fantastic.

Our fields are fine... Still with verdant green. In fact, Devens field - where there's ongoing Field Hockey and Soccer tournaments - is still uniform green across the 1/3 mile expanse. Granted it won't last ... and getting rain in timely dosing would also help longevity. But over the years, quite consistent with seasonality the fields and lawns will all but inevitably become stressed - some years less than others, earlier or later, but figure by mid summer as an average. Which we are only 30 days from as the Met crow flies, anyway. I realize there's no super cells, or blinding heat, or what-have-you loading syringes of dystopian dopa for your excitement addiction requirements, but tough. Sometimes you just have to endure nice days. Holy shit -

Some form of a severe threat, or just some weird anachronistic cyclone for this time of year with a lot of wind Thursday Emerging yet still vague heat signal after the 25th

89/56

Oh, I think I know what he meant - it just wasn’t at first clear he meant the 3 SD itself

except for those two peaks that are higher

I'm kinda bustin balls. Truth be told, not sure what the convective temp/sequencing is. We may just need another hour of heating, which can happen at this time of year until 5:30 really. I tell you what, on a separate note high heat a day after severe convection anywhere around here is definitely a Gretta effect -

boring and hot nothingness chasing ? ooh, make sure to get some videos

Again ... Brian's sarcasm is well placed and probably needed as a dose of reality, but I contend that the image of the pattern as a skewing force. The constant bombardment of model engagement is tinting perceptions perhaps. As I've been pointing out, there's a bit of a disconnect that's been evolving over particularly the last 20 years, where the pattern and the temperature results seem unmatched. Take next week on the GFSX machine. All SNE sites, BDL-MHT, are between 81 and 84. That's climo resulting from a pattern that looks below normal. Add to that, as we get out to D3..4, those numbers get increasingly weighted by climatology, so... any 84 next Thursday could very well actually be upper 80s... Now we're talking above normal in a below normal looking pattern. But people are only remembering the pattern at the end of the months. This is how perception divorces reality - or at least one way in which the observer is kind of manipulated.

Yeah, I hear ya. Fact of the matter is...we also have not yet to experienced a synergistic/resonant feed-back heat scenario in this region of continent. They're actually studied in climate as "synergistic heat waves" world over. I may be that we can't. We might just have too many goephysical traits that make that less able to happen here, but like western Europe and Australia, the steppe of the Urals and over in Russia ... Chinese Asia... The Pacific NW in 2020 is an example of that, where carried on for 10 days at some 35+ for high temps.

Yeah, we did that in March of 2012 pretty sure

el dependent? KBTV GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/12/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 64 86| 63 85| 58 75| 55 75| 55 83| 63 77| 60 75| 56 55 76 TMP 71 79| 71 77| 62 69| 61 69| 63 76| 68 71| 64 69| 61 DPT 56 52| 57 60| 51 46| 48 46| 51 53| 58 57| 54 50| 51 CLD CL PC| PC OV| OV OV| PC PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV PC| PC WND 10 10| 11 13| 10 8| 9 10| 9 18| 19 19| 18 13| 10 P12 13 6| 20 74| 55 9| 25 20| 23 25| 39 61| 44 31| 24 32 31 P24 13| 85| 57| 30| 37| 78| 51| 48 Q12 0 0| 0 3| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 5| | Q24 0| 3| 1| 0| 0| 4| | T12 2 6| 12 37| 19 3| 7 8| 7 9| 17 19| 17 14| 10 T24 | 12 | 44 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 16

Indeed... old Sol is doing a decent job at eroding the grunge. Gone partly sunny here and the higher res vis imagery suggests we'll see more sun going forward. Temps 'll likely respond

DP's may be growing ( and they are in fact... no "may be" about it) in the longer term average/mean, but they seem to not coincide ( necessarily) when the kinetic temperature is very large - as well. That's probably the sticking point in perception. Particularly true around here. We don't seem to couple say... 76 dp, with 98 nearly as frequently as the same latitude out over N IA/IL for example. It's not like our sun is weaker. There's some sort of geo-physical feedback here that gets in the way of that. Like the baseline PNAP ( Perennial North American Pattern, which refers to the the rest state) affixes a non-linear component of forcing that is ( as "non-linearity" implies) not really very discerned on a daily weather chart but is always lurking, and does manifest in subtle ways. Such as, ...our highest heat ends up coming over top, where it then has to come d-slope. That's just one possible way in which our region hides the biggest DP days from coinciding from the bigger kinetic delivery days. Another possibility ... because we are the continental anus of just about every circulation mode there is with the exception of the EC paralleling "Bahama Blue" pattern ( rarer), that means we have the entire 2,500 miles of accumulated organic and inorganic ( man-made) particulate aspects that can inhibit a purer solar radiation transfer. All these aspect make any linear interpretation of climate kind of fragile when considering things at a deeper level.

We're teeing off at 7:30 tomorrow morning. Not a big fan of Saturday morning early anything frankly ... buuut, fairways under sun you could swear you can hear sizzling makes even 82 F a bad golfing experience.

Agreed. I'm stopping short of asking that myself, tho, just because there's too much subjectivity to what summer "should be" to really wanna even engage in that futile endeavor, but personally? I think next week is 'seasonally bn' - for older schoolers, they know that means that yeah ... below normal but within seasonal reasonability so nothing obnoxious. The thing is, it's like there's multiple aspects concurrently true. The pattern verifies as a below normal +PNAP structure more than less, but we end up warmer than the pattern suggests we should - while still being lower that summers have been on sunny days going back 20 years worth of Gretta's ovulation cycles.