Typhoon Tip

yeah ...there's a tendency for the models to act like there's a -NAO block when the actuals don't really show a block. It's really interesting. But pinning the p-boundary roughly DTX to BOS is part of that behavior

Near missed bible phase

The deviant in me would love to see this parked on MVY ... just plunk it there and go ahead and call the National Guard

Is the 23-26th one of those climate snow holes ?

I'm also still willing to entertain more ice involved between that and the short order cook round two.

yeah.. not a 'major' event per se, but that is a significant wholesale correction S with this 12z GFS solution toward the end of week compared to prior runs.

Coming around is it -

Wonder if that was global or if it was just local thing

Steve, He said "pre -industral" Your presenting 1991 -2020 Just sayn' ... y'all can clear up the differences in data sets.

I'm just gonna respond once to save Brian's annoyance in going down the CC rabbit hole but ...yeah. I still can't get over 2023. I don't think anyone has, either. It's just been excepted, now faded - probably because no matter who is involved, everyone in modernity is zombifide into a state of no attention span. Ha. But, I think that it was just so overwhelmingly large and spectacular ... it transcends explanation in a lot of ways. Like deer in the headlight ? And thus still vaguely only theoretically explained ( though the goal posts narrowing - ). People just sort of have to go, okay it was what it was. But what that was ...was proof that humanity, despite all conceits and wizardry, doesn't have a f'n clue what exactly can happen in a future with a destabilized climate, ongoing. No one...man to machine and back, anticipated an entire planet, suddenly rising a whole degree C, air and sea. Everywhere, all at once,... unilateral response. To what? only vaguely described with a lot of plausibility ( probably a cocktail of forces working toward a synergistic outcome ..but whatever ) yet nothing discretely causative or definitive, certainly not informative. That right there, that lack of explanation ..., should ( no pun intended ) make people sweat. It should worry anyone with a modicum of intelligence. You don't have to be a climate scientist, physicist, rocket scientist or Gandalf from lord of the rings to admit, if something that grandiose happens without warning, we don't know what we're really dealing with.

yeah, and the other thing, that sun sitting on the top of the planet look up in the arctic is still 30 below 0 F. This is all an integration over relative climatology - it's not linear in dimension. Definitely the kind of post that starts fights among the razor sharp analytic users of social media Americana muah hahahaha Seriously though ... take a region that probably climo-hovers around -20 C in winter, and inject that kind of climo-relative warm anomaly, the difference might just be 20 feet of snow or whatever AI exaggerated depth that was ... just sayn'

mm, the irony is that these cold anomalies, relative to the whole, are happening where the industry is most guilty of anthropomorphic contribution to CC. nothing else - whether we are using our phones or PCs ... so what. No one is judging anyone on either side; the post is purely for the other irony.

It actually was that way/result in Dec, too. In fact, going back 240 months... something > 1/2 of all months, that, or something similar took place. Despite the so-be-it reality that our temperatures have increased faster than anywhere else in the lower 48 ( Climate Change) in the last 30 years that cold node wobbling around the eastern mid latitude continent, either over it or near enough by to wonder, has taken place. I find that interesting... like, "Gaia" is turning up the heat on the humanity frogs, hoping they don't notice until it's too late and they're boiled and dead. You know, another way to laugh about it ... using the clean setting on the pre-conventional ovens ... basically kiln the filth to ashes. Like the former is used because the latter is the goal.

Prolly not the right forum for this but ... once again, Earth tries to hide the real state of the planet from the policy makers of the U.S.

agreed ...too cold for big dawg melt back.

More a social commentary here ... First of all ... no one should take advice off anyone from a social media source. To point out the obvious, it's no different than subjecting one's self to bus-stop factoids among strangers. Unless one really really knows that source. Like really knows, not because they think they know, but really do. In which case, your proooobably not reading their advice off a social media realm in the first place. hahaha No but what you can do, if you hear or read something that sounds cogent, use that as a step stone in research to go look the shit up yourself and see if its real. This latter tact seldom appears to concern those that frequent this source - that's sort of what I mean by not taking it seriously. Or maybe it is just lazy. Maybe it is just capacity to understand. Maybe compos mentis... Who knows for certain. Being the cynic that I am (perhaps even recreationally LOL) I think it's because people don't want to admit when one person or source is right - particularly ( in here..) when that right sounding advice or observation or whatever tact, cancels their joy. Folks are not in here ( probably neglecting what they're supposed to be doing, much of the time - ) to engage so much in objective lucidity.

I've personally found that those Feb and Mar and even Apr early big heat bombs that took place since 2016 with interestingly increased frequency (a separate climate discussion), seemed to be prologue to a negative NAO over the western limb of the index. Random memory while on the subject... This also took place in October of 2011, with a mid month 4-day static period of 75ish afternoons, even crispy CU towers sometimes on the sunset horizons. Then, in the 20+s of that month, the the western NAO plummets. Few might remember, but we actually flipped to noodles about 3 or 4 days prior to that big late month 'Halloween snow storm' one late afternoon. An innocuous event to serve as warning. But it was all part of that same circuitry getting going. Anyway, point being ... there may be something to that statistically, where warm ups that are above a SD threshold might just correlate rather highly, as a prelude, to a period of higher latitude blocking. Like think of it as a total event that is warm presaging high latitude block in a kind of super synoptic sequence.

It's a warm index period, yet the dailies/oper model cinemas are low balling on that potential. The main reason this takes place is to annoy me... Winter enthusiasts don't realize what is happening, they just assume the world is the way it should be. I'm neurotic about that. LOL. I don't like it when the idiosyncratic vagaries of wind and weather patterns placate and even enable one side, in general - cold or hot. But the reality is that index modes just mean favored regimes. It's a matter of how much or how little. There is variance within those regimes. Anyway, here on Earth... in this case, the pattern is acting like a -NAO without actually having a block. One does eventually formulate up there - as usual, inconsistently in both time and space by the guidance'. But these systems running along a pinned polar boundary late next week ( it's a mixy storm signal that's been there for several days actually...), are acting like the block is there whether it is actually manifested or not. That behavior is the non-linearity of forcing. In wave mechanics, fields interact in both linear and non-linearity. The linear is what you see; the non-linear dictates where waves amplify verse damp out, emerge and decay. That's what exposes the non-linear field Another way to think of the non-linear relationship, the PNA in fact is positively correlated to the NAO. SO, -PNA statistically wants to manifest a -NAO... it seems the physics of the models are exposing that relationship, whether it shows up in the linear structures (those that are readily observed).

I'd take that over 24/5 just because it's nicer feeling and living in that... pretty simple. lol

Ineedaninternetcoach is like a happy face troll

I don't disagree here in principle ... but the limitation and problems causing belated response, it's all even simpler than this. It's that people don't step out of the way of warnings... The step out of the way of what is causing them pain. It's biological, alright. May as well throw some irony in there, too. Biology is limiting human response from actually adjusting to the calculus they are capable of making. Such that people deny because they can ... They don't and won't be forced to do anything, unless it hurts. It's that simple. If that sounds really, really stupid? Your right. We are a flawed species. Period. "To err is human", but if we're not careful? no one left to forgive. If CC appealed to any of the 5 senses (and I'd even take the spectrum between emotion to the 6th sense in that manifold of everyday experiences) there would be no debate. Little furthering muse... When the waves of population correction ( to put it nicely) begin to sweep over civilizations... there may even be attempts at blaming it on something else. Because even as it's killing, CC moves so slow compared to the every day experience; the 90% Idiocrasy will still not believe it is so. They'll still fail to connect their shortcomings and observations to cause. I've drafted out this analogy, years ago in this climate sub forum somewhere.. I still think of it. This hearkens to the story of Noah in some ways - I am absolutely not religious, and am not attempting to take this down into that lunacy. But it is still interesting, as the planet warms... and the masses continue to ignore, if not heckle it as a background problem of lesser import, the oceans will rise. Only creeping at first. I'm taking a little sc-fi doom prophecy dystopian license here, fine. However, fact of the matter is, yeah ...the oceans are rising because of CC. Species are perishing. Human adaptiveness will proverbially doggy paddle, but like other people do ...when drowning is on the line, they'll take another man down with them to save themselves. That ending there becomes a metaphor for wars. I guess we're powerless to stop the elegantly obtuse folly of the human finale, so may as well sit back and popcorn and cook the show. Maybe when the aliens happen by this planet in a 1,000 years, they'll see all these monuments to our past - hopefully they'll find, and learn to decode the language of Percy Shelly, "Ozymandias"

It's in the air. When the breeze flattens out in those moments out there leaving that unabated sun un-harrassed there's a nape quality to that. Meanwhile, rivulets it in the gutters. It's trying I'm noticing the the PV is dislodged to the Canadian archipelago side of the NP. So long as that's the case, it's likely to limit how much we recover from that two to three week BN span we just passed through. It's compressing the heights into southern Canada which is a confluence headachy look. Warm fronts might penetrate to Toronto on D8 charts, but we know better. Ha... maybe if we're lucky ... this will be the worst it can be for both sides! yay. No more winter of value. Not warm enough to d-drip the spring enthusiasts. Actually said look might make some nickle dime mixy deals come to pass. So, right now it favors the winter geese in the early gallop polls.

heh... I meant Climate Change ... bored and hoping to start a fight

You know how fresh powdery snow is sometimes referred to Champaign? When at this time of year sun shines on the snow pack and it shards back like that, that should be referred to as "Chardonnay"

CC helping there more so than in CT ?