Typhoon Tip

The last week's worth of the solar transition has been hidden from our Earth because of this unrelenting agenda by Earth to jam New England cold enthusiast heads in the sand. heh ... I'mmm fairly certain that come April 10, the March global temperature anomalies will again, for the 6th consecutive month, have an isolated blue node situated conveniently over denialism town squares. It's a warm sun ...for all intents and purposes, and equinoxian sun. Btw, the equinox is on the 20th this year, good for another 1.5 solar diameters-worth of sky ascent. Sun rise to sun set will soon be longer than 12 hours. I carry no secrets in the matter ... at this time of year I am all in a warm season enthusiast, so this all suits me just fine. Having offended (hopefully) with all that, I am still objective when looking and charts and data. I don't see interesting warmth, or interesting cold really through April 1. There's arguments for either, pretty much offsetting. Which means that either could lean on verification and it's not outlandish. "Bowling season" is a hypothetical three-week sorta window when packets of stronger atmospheric mechanics are at risk of being pinched off/abandoned by the increased background tendency for jets to retreat N. Give that antic a month's room to breath. We'll have to see how that goes, but in an even money spring, that averages to less snow as a base line probability, which defaults to bowling ball cut off cold pocket lows as the wild card. It seem this is best fit for all indicators and interpreting operational model tenors, for those cannot find the courage to go on with life in the face of the type of weather that actually 97% of humanity prefers. haha.

Roger Smith died Really? What happened?

Kevin’s trying to create his own dopa hit

Gotta love it when the Antarctic's climo curve enters it's steepest perennial decline, yet the actual temperature's wondering off into free space ...

I was clear that March is a transitional month. By definition, that is not winter. It possesses qualities of both warm and cool seasons. The reasoning I gave is clad.

Yeah, I've never heard of March 1st climate boundaries March 21 is an 'event horizon' - impetus being, you notice nothing crossing that date. At our latitude and other geographic constraints, notwithstanding, ... March 21 doesn't mean anything to the progression of spring. You cross the equator with direct sun? jack shit. You may as well delineate the .3deg of latitude shy of the Equator that happens on the 20th and galloot about that then. If you look at our climate, March shows a defined and most obvious total -differential in both cold and snow, and.... much to the amazement of denialims, that's starting work backward into Februaries. In fact, the first day of spring should philosophically begin on Feb 10, the date the celestial mechanics imposes the escape from the solar minum into what is called the solar transition season. Yeah, March 21 ...

March 21 mean jack shit That date means nothing to physics and celestial mechanics.

Warm fronts do this ... WPC evaluates and it seems they maybe just pick a mean position, because there's like these multiple gradient axis ... One extends along the Pike up here... It's 30s and low 40s N of that, and 50s below with more regions S obs in the wind field. Fine... but go down into the Mid Atl and there's another one, where it bounces into the mid 60s. It's like there's multiple warm boundaries in a diffused tapestry and WPC just has a snake there in the midst of it all.

yeah, perhaps but ... the convection in S CT seemed coincident.

Change in climate by raw numbers since 1980 implies that in nominal forcing, March in New England ( regional variance notwithstanding) is ~ +1F for 1980 thru 2010. Hint, it hasn't gone down since, either. If one were back in early February and said a warmer than normal March, that's not a bad gamble.

So is that thunder coming on board in S CT? Looks like it's warm frontal thrust/lifting edge

yeah, today had a downer murk look for a week's worth of guidance approaching. the high pressure is retreating due E keeps the SEsties in a moist/saturated flow. The warm front comes through later.

I feel like every year on March 15th we go through this same stench of denial over the seasonal termination timing. I think people need to adopt the following notion at a spiritual level; a perpetually constraining limitation on their expectations: Winter ends after March 7. Springs sometimes host snow as a very valid part of Spring in New England's climate. If/when snow becomes a prevalent outlook event in Spring, it is normal Spring weather... and does not reflect winter as still existing. Also - while not (yet) a prerequisite for getting a 100 on that mental acuity test, anyone include CC disruption gets extra credit.

Something else that's under everyone's radar ( no wonder considering - ), is that there were occasional model cycles building warm anomaly heights over the eastern continent, replete with over-governing circulation modes back then too. It's just that there wasn't any consistency; save for the heat we did get last week, but that was outside the outlook. We were looking at mid month, i.e., now. Anyway, there did turn out to be a big heat anomaly. It packed back SW and is setting off headlines alerts. I've been noticing this over the last several summers actually, that type of correction vectoring. We'd see a big warm up/ridge type -PNAP emerge in the outer temporal horizon of the models, and then it would retrograde through the charts as time went by to just go ahead and end on up right back in the SW frying eggs on High School parking lot science experiments in PHX. I've mused to self that one of these global synergistic heat burst phenomenon might one day visit the NE U.S., should one of those evolve opposite of that persistent correction vectoring - but it's never seemingly capable of doing that since I started noticing that specific behavior. Then, in the winters... we are consummately getting this weird local cold node where despite the background CC evidence, we are - quite convenient and enabling ... - persistently colder than everyone else. I'm not convinced correcting west warmth in the summers, and consummate cold enabling verification in the winters, is entirely unrelated. Yet ... we are supposedly warming fast than anywhere on the planet in the era of accelerating CC? interesting

Will and I called that... Or actually, it's better to say that the modeling complexion, indices to performance tenors et al, looked like a no win scenario for mid March+, two weeks ago. We commiserated a back and forth about it. Those indicators were ugly. Not sufficient to offset normal seasonal climb out (the haunting abstraction of CC not helping -). Yet, the pattern still looked like it was going to try and fight the sun. The residue of that leaves us with no fun for late winter enthusiasts, and no fun for spring and warmth. No one wins. It seems the ambit of prognostic technology's nailing this purgatory.

The irony is that we could have a 20" pack in place on April 1st ...

My brother-in-law’s out nearSturgeon Bay right now. He was saying that the grocery stores are sack run on even for those hardy folk up there

well...I guess this marks the 2nd snow event since this new cold pattern arrived that was completely claimed by dry air.

Hold out huh No snow here on flat expanses. gone. We do have the piles though. It's a weird look. Almost like happening upon the collapsed ruins of an ancient era.

I thought 2020 had flurries in May... in fact, I know it did. I recall standing out on my friend's deck as a blown out virga CU came over and stray dendies floated by for a couple minutes. I'm like really - I don't know. Maybe it has to actually be 32 to damage orchard crops... and that was say 33 to 44 with very low freezing heights.

Hasn't that been a problem more frequently in this part of the country over the last 10 .. 15 years? The demon has been claiming early flowers. Dead flowers = no peaches. The balmy heat bursts we've lustfully, almost 'immorally' wallowed in some four or five February's just since 2010 ( some extraordinarily nearing 80!), ..to mention the ones in Marches... they seem to inexorably be followed by brick earth cold. It's an under-the-radar cost of CC ( that doesn't exist; thank god we're losing crops for no reason, huh - ) related whiplash extremes. You can't flip the seasonal switch that dramatically, intra-seasonally, without consequences to actual life. Risking a digression but I'll just say... humans really do have superior adaptability. But that in away makes them the best agency nature can create to destroy nature - because the shit they stank is tolerated by them, but starts slowly sterilizing all else. But, ...at some point when the seas no longer provide, and the soil loses too much arability to sustain ... it will be impossible to adapt to 0 food.

So long as the wind stays below skin tactility ... the sun will do a ton to offset the annoyance of cold air. It's not warm out? just to be clear. I realize there's some subjectivity to preference but 35 F will still cause hypothermia to anyone naked out there. That is my criteria - can a naked human being survive totally nude. If so, it's not cold. LOL. It probably still still pokes 43 or so. seriously tho, it's all about the sun and no wind at this time of year to reclaim some "nape value". If sitting on a park bench in that sun, and the wind is nary more than a zephyr's waft, creates this wonderful dichotomy to the senses. It's like you can tell it's cold, but at the same time, the protective invisible cocoon of warmth belies that reality - the sun is such liar, huh.

That'll happen everywhere in the continent except for this specific region right here

I think there is... 'micro climates' etc mind you, part of my post is tongue in cheek, but there is subtle truth to drool humor. But to me, there are plenty of days ... too many in fact, whence there is a "continental air mass" and we are not a part of it anywhere E of a NYC-PWM line... to fairly group us in the former.