Typhoon Tip

It almost looks like the temperature variation between Dec and Jan is in stasis ... like constant straight across while the climate normal dips below.

Just adding to this for those unaware ...there's an apparent category 4/5 "marine heat wave" going on from the near shore waters of San Francisco all the way down the coast... There's some modest suggestion in the total larger scale SST to be indirectly linked with the El Nino - though this is likely an artifact of proximity rather than the same forcing.

The first sentence of that is broadly true, "The IPCC, NASA, NOAA, and EPA state that essentially all of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 since the pre-industrial era originates from fossil-fuel combustion" but is spun and too absolute. In other words, they're indicating the rise in CO₂, fossil-fuel emissions being the largest contributor, not the sole source. Example, NASA describes the long-term increase as primarily driven by burning coal. They are not saying all. That matters... Not sure if that forced interpretation is just a standard method in formulating arguments among the "paper vs paper" ambit - it could cultural. They lie about what the other says, very cleverly... What I also find immediately critical about this abstract is that it does not appear to include - if even aware of - the synergy in the whole system; where natural elements and events, happening in tandem with anthropomorphic contribution/adding of volatile chemistries are where the story becomes critical. There' mathematical model comes off as a sand-box in the middle of much bigger beach of wave actions. The Keeling may not be 1:1 ... Strikes as irrelevant. Which, they may be 100% correct in that confined consideration, but reality is a holistic result and problem. The mounting evidence suggest 1:1 is not required. We know that in the case of CC that is true. Because when mathematically calculating anthropomorphic contribution, and then mathematically calculating the natural order, the differential happens to equal the the last 120 years of climate change to a very close confidence interval. SO, quibble over the math scaling while the world ends ...okay.

I'm curious what GISS graphical layout looks like in 10 or so days... My hunch is that there'll be a relative min round New England.

Don't disagree here ... But I'd just add, there only needs to be a spark to detonate an entire field of natural gas. Believe me, this year in particular, perhaps above all others, there is an ocean of gas. ...it's proven to be a part of the bounty that CC provides, anyway.. but now this on top. Forget snow or rain ... anything that happens could end up synergistically out of control production. Granted, we have to be cold enough if the discussion is snow-related... yes, there is a non-zero possibility that it is never cold enough, at least down here. I doubt it... but is so. I would never bank on that in alpine setting, either way ... maybe in 10 or 20 years of brick dipshits denialism succeeding in pushing the extinction event to the brink... But at this time, no. Otherwise, we may as well send up palm frowns to Caribou ME already. Short version, the same clipper in 1987, could product 33" these days, the specific physical mechanism is that CC and now this El Nino, pointing it's cosmic-scale hot anus at us... are ceiling the amount of water vapor can physically be in Earth's atmosphere. If cold is sniffable, it could snow that much by accident - whether it's 70 F a week later or not.

it's like Indian Summer used to come after a period of substantial frosts and/or even a snow fall back in the days of lore... Now? all we have to be is relatively cooler, than we get near 80

hm not aware of any teleconnectors for the latter half of November but from 7th to 16th or so, that's not really a cold pattern. The teleconnectors for that earlier time range are indeed -AO/+PNA ...but this is one of those situations where the numerology is lying about the super synoptic aspects, and the actual mean spatial layout. The +PNA is almost all being caused by strong neg anomalies NE of Hawaii...but the flow subtending down stream over the Conus is very zonal... so it's misleading to some degree. As to the -AO...that's suspicious too. The actual orientation of the heights/contouring show an annular structure about the AO domain, but the domain itself happens to have modest positive anomalies. That's the problem with using strictly the geopotential anomalies to compute the orthogonal/eof derivatives, particularly when the heights everywhere are about a coffee break from kicking off the super extinction event heh seriously, it's closer to an annular flow type just happening to be above normal.

Not directed at you Don, just in general.. I wish the scientific ambit would elect to place a "P" on SSW as a suffix, for/if/when an intrusion of warming into the PV/stratospheric pressure coordinates is proven ( crucially ) to be a downward "P"ropagating event. There is a life cycle to the SSW --> -AO, that requires some 20 to 30 days to complete. Whether this is that, or just an intrusion that quickly disappears ... still remains to be seen. This needs to be factored into this "suspected" intrusion event and I'm not reading anywhere, in or outside this social media ... like that is in the gears of reasoning. First of all, the AO is progged currently at CPC to go ~ -.75 SD over this next week. There is no antecedent SSW/propagating downward phenomenon prior to that occurring. Should this 10 mb warm node and any vortex collapse become resonate ( downward radiating through the vortex) .... your looking at the end of November before any AO mode response - when considering the proven total SSW phenology. I just suspect that SSW is being blurred in the proper usage of why Sudden Stratospheric Warming was originally identified. Since there are intrusion events that don't down well, yeah... technically it's a warming in the stratosphere that is/was rather expedient in how it manifested. But semantically... and really machine wise, if you want an SSW to correlate to winter at mid latitude, it has to go thru 20+ day downward evolution, then the -AO happens. And I still don't see that very convincingly modeled in the GFS. What I do see occurring is both aft of present and continuing in the models, a warmer than normal static 70 to 100 hPa level state. I'm willing to hunch pretty heavily that it's CC related... This looks more like a pan-dimensional aspect than an intrusion - aside from the fact that it's emerging from the bottom up. As well, it is/has vastly predated(s) the canonical 'disruption season'.

Just curious ...what did you actually get in that Feb event up your way? Over here - which I consider the western limb of the same sort of "Met district" - we got kind of left out... It was pedestrian here - somewhere around 10" I wanna say. Which is relativistic, haha. I mean, 10" in 1985 would have been a ER visit for a non-terminating orgasm

Hate to tell you ... his/her doing so, mm isn't just a about a bias to see thru a CC lens ( assuming that's the gripe?) He may do that - truth be told ...don't know who we're really talking about haha. Just caught my eye Seriously, the poster may have that bias, but were right to have brought up that empirically true and important comparison. It lacks tact. Yup. During the d-drip of cryo-dystopia that's finally coursing through the veins of the weather-related psychotropic addict ...that's definitely going to come off as a NARCANian insult. LOL However, the truth of his/her aspect is of more importance when taking the longer view ... Probably even saying 'ethical' view is apropos. I sense some times we're preoccupied in social media, for seeking the possibility for big entertaining events, and not really thinking enough about what's going on behind the curtains. - just don't interrupt the show? I don't mean say anyone's immoral but, I'm just taking a stab at denialism straw-man there. The empirical data, and the fucking physical changes being existentially observed around the planet don't allow sanity and denial to exist in the same realm, any longer. But I digress.

Off note/op ed: Relatives currently across southern Michigan are experiencing a Lilac bloom here nearing November ... and the photos/evidence I've seen, these are robust bouquets ... Not a mere floret or two. I began noticed this here in New England beginning ~ 7 years ago, and since it's been sporadic... year to year.. Small bud swells with a few cracked open, a small flower here and there- I've actually even witnessed seasonally dumbfounded bumble bee sniffin' around. Not the bigger bouquets you get in May...but definitely "silently alarming" for climate aware types like myself - and definitely not enough of total population awareness... Nothing like this though, Point being, the phenomenon is increasing in frequency and production - one among a vast compendium of different climate change ramifications that are ongoing. I was just reading about thermokarst phenomenon ... permafrost detachment landslides, and glacial thrust events, all of which have both increased, but at an accelerated occurrence rates over the past 30 years. The shit over in Tibet was civility being in the wrong place in the wrong Millennium when a detachment took place...etc. I know that global climate change is fake and that profligate exploitation of fossil fuels is part of human kind's divine right and provenance of all Earth kingdom come ... has nothing to do with acceleration/adding to it. And that science is fake... But, I guess somewhere between the enormity of whole villages and their occupants being swept away, and the acrid stench of incarcerating poly-aromatic hydrocarbons ...there exists an incredible beauty like bouquet that has no right to exist at this time of year. Feels a bit like a forbidden fruit though ... definitely a guilty pleasure. First cousin can be just too hot to leave alone I suppose...

we need the season defining big cyclone and wind event... we had an autumn like this in 1987 I recall... almost 0 wind thru all of October, then... we had a wind event near Halloween and I remember as the cold front came in there were leaves in the column from cloud base to earth. crazy

what a bummer. Captain Picard died

It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense. In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

A new phenomenon may be beginning known as 'El namis'

No... 32, is cold. It is not fake. I dunno...getting close to needing to call you a choice word, and walking away. haha my god

This is why you are prone to believing fake news ... Reality is not what you want, or want to accept. It is, and you can decide whether you want to be realistic, or reside in some deluded state. The air temperature is 35, and if that is sensibly considered cold to the observer, it is a cold air mass. End of debate. Whether that air mass then rises to 70 that afternoon or not, doesn't change the fact... if/when that happens, the air mass is then a warm air mass. That's it. there is nothing else.

This is incorrect logic in the empirical sense of reality. For human sensible recognition, when it is 35 it is cold. When it is 95, it is hot. in our example of the desert, the air mass is cold a night, hot during the day. The point that is being missed is that it is the same air mass getting to a cold or hot state. If an air is always hot or always cold, than THAT is THAT air mass. The temperature is a physical representation of the average kinetic motion of the molecules and atoms. It is not fake. It is an empirical measurement of state.

...And AI has all of humanity living in a simulation apparently ... sign of the times, man. sign of the times

Yeah I'm liking this idea myself as of late. The 70 and 100 hPa level anomalies currently observed may be related.

Yeah, I'm not sure it's all that real either... as winter enthusiasts, we would rather not see the cumulative error products for D7 and D10 leads indicating a 2 SD positive busting ..haha.. prooobably's a red flag. It could also correct -

No personal feel on whether this has any portending value for later in the winter. Not sure I see how- but that's no refutation! I can come up study-able explanation for why a 10hPa warm bloob ( the official term! ) is taking place, now, that doesn't require any specific special meaning thereafter. For one, I've been following this for years ...I've noticed lag correlation. First, the Swiss Alps and Urals/ cordillera running N-S between along the Eurasian geographic region, could be instrumental ... about 10 days prior to these warm nodes popping into existence in those higher stratospheric levels. The 10 hPa being one in the 1 thru 30. It seems there is a lag correlation, a week to perhaps 10 days after active N-NE cyclone modes. The idea is, these modes inject/enhance warm advection events downs stream across mid and N Europe, prior to the 10 hPa emergence. The conjecture ( less than hypothesis at this time...) is that the geographical barrier the Eurasian cordillera imposes, assists in lifting the warm air - think 'giving it a boost'. Around the globe over here, over western N/A...we have a similar, though not as abrupt geographic barrier wrt the Rockies orientation ... impinging Pacific flow as it encroaches from the west. As this air 'back logs' due to fluid pressure it begins to deflect up... in the same way, just not as dramatically... Coriolis force additionally factors and turns toward the N... That is the reason the base-line mean flow over N/ features the flat ridge in the W with a gentle nadir coming E of ~ 110 W across the continent. ( as an aside, this is the base-line PNAP, Perennial North American Pattern). It's a useful knowledge nugget, because not ever +PNAP is really a +PNA. Nor is a -PNAP part of a long termed -PNA.. it's like any teleconnectors ..they don't always move together. Anyway, so the Urals and so forth are a younger taller mountain range. Height being the crucial difference. The active storm mode of the N-NE Atlantic sends warm advection/storminess through the central and N Europe. These encounter get deflected N and up over the Eurasian cordillera very proficiently, ... eventually penetrating the "side wall" of the PV. It may take a week to 10 days to do so... If there is a warm anomaly S of the 60 N definition... it may en masse rotated around the hemisphere a couple of time before all this happens. I have enough to at least correlate and subsequently formulate a hypothesis that connects the N-NE Atlantic storm mode with a lag to the mid stratosphere vortex presentations but ... I'm stuck in a day job like everyone else.

Yeah, that's why I'm careful to describe the downward propagating, crucially ...highly indicative using the temperature monitoring... I also am just delineating whether that specific behavior is occurring or not, is crucial. Because the correlation to the AO is very tightly correlated to that phenomenon. That site, and the information, at both ends that I provided, coherently show that. If you take those down welling examples, and compare them to historical AO records, you'll see the 20 to 30 day lag rather obviously. If you do the same with those warm nodes that did not apparently propagate, AO responses are variable and very less correlated. I'm also - again - not intending to say this November won't observe a downward inertial displacement, from 10 hPa ..thru the lower pressure coordinates and destined to affect the AO...etc... just that I'm not seeing that type of SSW totality at this time. The gist: What we're getting at here is the well-studied form of stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The current 10 hPa bloop - at least in the GFS suite I provided ...again, I have not seen the Euro and refuse to pay for it hahahaha - does not appear GFS-destined to be a coupled phenomenon. It's not likely to be a deterministic value on the AO and subsequent goodies ...etc... if even registerable at all, unless the coupling model takes place. Critical distinction being ...inertial displacement at 10 hPa only describes the PV's forced horizontal position at that level, not proof that the same displacement is traveling downward... that has to happen or the coupling won't.

Been seeing this a lot in the last decade ...but since 2023, even more, where these "missing man formation" curve peal-aways take place. This tropical curve is exceptionally deviated from the perceived canonical/historic behavior at this point... It seems it should almost have to turn and start going down but the damage is already done. Not sure if this apart/aspect of El Nino, per se; other "super" Nino years are presented but did not to demo this type of aberrant tropical separation from the pact. Interesting

Looking at the EPS spatial/synoptic hemisphere in the mids, thru the end of those 360 hours ... GEFS and GEPS too, it appears it's all coming down to how the planetary wave lengths ( literally the x-coordinate geometry of how long it stretches...) verifies across the continental mid latitudes in determining if/when winter-like anything will take place thru mid month. One aspect that is very high confidence ( unusually so for this range/model error climate) is that a poweful negative goepoential anomaly will set up NE of Hawaii in the E and particular NE Pacific. Not even sure if this is an "Aleutian low" per se, as it is not really illustrating that. More like a deep L/W anchor trough, with perhaps a few member likely closing off a low at some point or another but also likely remaining progressive just by experience of of what the mean looks like - for now... But it is deep, and it is a very strong +PNA correlation, thus seeing this ... ...has herculean legs supporting confidence. Perhaps also considering just how ridiculously crushed those members are surrounding that mean curve... The mode/mean are collocated as is almost all members, out at D10? that is a raging agreement hard-on. Convention of statistics states that lower spread is consistent with elevating confidence. Anyway, back to point ... the spatial/synoptic handling down stream of this look E Pac aspect is not nearly as coherent as this E Pac aspect, It's like an 'unmanned fire-hose' pattern down stream, where the models will tend to flop the heights and whatever impression of a ambient polar jet up and down in latitude just like a model-time-dependent flopping fire hose. Run to run, different location while the E Pac look essentially remains the same. We're creating a pattern here where the western half of the PNA domain is anchoring in positive mode, but the eastern half is indicating stress coupling... a variation that could either result warm or cool relative to normal.