Typhoon Tip

i think that's in AMS' official glossary, yeah... 5 = torch

We know this ... but just in case. The idea that acorns can predict a wet warm or snowy cold winter has very low or no skill as a forecasting metric. Years with perceived surpluses of acorns have nothing to do with ensuing seasonality. According to all science/peer reviewal, those were influenced/triggered by past environmental factors - so yeah... , it was cold and snowy last year. or warm and wet... which ever. tell us what we already know. but obviously... we are so fantastically bored -

One aspect that lurks that I'd be careful to mention is that single event results tend to exceed QPF at an observably increasing frequency over recent decades ... I feel this needs to be a bullet point in seasonal forecasting summaries. Don't linger on it per se. Just a mention is needed. this is already papered/correlated to increased ambient WV in the overall machinery of the planet. There appears to be a synergistic phenomenology - handsome words to say that when we are raining or snowing or sleeting or hailing or whatever, when doing so through higher WV mass, favors "positive busts" The models seem to be physically challenged in this area, too - although I don't mean to claim that is true. Just that I keep seeing real events where 30" of rain in 24 hours falls and models might have had an "eye-popping" foot of rain as it is. Heh, it is almost as though eye-popping is a warming that there a GOATie uh oh'er a-comin' I was just thinking that in a year that may be a shitty wet warm one, a single snower could be something truly short duration historic. Like shock and awe given that scale/degree of ENSO plausibly feeding two sources of WV+: the ENSO itself, together with the ambient argument. That's like synergy, then synergizing yet further, in a single event that happened to roll a 7 cold enough airmass at the right time. A couple of storms like this and we have an average snow year ...when the real story ends up being the flooding next March. LOL 63" of blue snow at ORH and National Guard only reserved for Science Fiction, right? I mean that's rhetoric for fun there... but think back to December 23 1997. The day before that happened, the then 'ETA' ( grandfather to the soon-to-be made extinct blood lined NAM) model had something like .6" of total QPF at Logan, in a sounding that was -3 at 800, 0 and 900, and +2 mid way up the Pru' tower altitude. Very little or no QPF at ALB, which was colder... Now, the forecast was probably in error anyway. It was 1-3" of transparent glop for the Worcester Hills, to raining a cat paw or two down town Boston... I Emailed Harvey and thought that was too wet. I was not right enough! Because 20" of snow later, an amount that fell in 5 hours, pretty much herald in the era of choke snow deposition rates... I had seen and heard of 3 and even an unimaginable 4" in a single hour though rarely. Not a 7, book-ended by a couple of 5s! These types of events have been occurring world over, too. Rain or snow, with increasing frequency since the late 1990s. That ENSO that year ... mm seems like a climo revolving door sometimes to me.

I know ... and it smacks like a bit of a synergistic feedback/resonance connect(able) to the ID CGT correlating to ridging there. That area "wants to ridge"as the basal westerlies goes up and over the western continental terrain expanse. As the westerlies incur and then have to rise up and over the western continental topography; then, the Coriolis necessarily applies... bends to the N... The flow then flattens down as it exits the continent/E. The result casts an allusion to low amplitude ridge axis roughly collocated with the Continental Divide, but it's physical emerge isn't the same as barotropic/thermodynamic feature. Rather is land/air in origin. And is thus a circumstance that is perpetual - so long as the land forces the westerlies up and over. Such that before applying any other factor/consideration... there's a tendency. But then superimposing... there is constructive feedback suggested by the negative mode of ID CGT - a correlation that is sending a complementary ridge signal to that same longitude. This isn't the first year I've noticed heat/hot patternization being stolen back west at a continental scale - even premature of forecast timing/expectation. The harmonic feedback causes a bit of an exaggerated bias over the climatology base described by the terrain argument. It began some 15 (or so) years ago, and well... it turns out that's about when the IA CGT began to observably preference an ~ 1/4 retrograde position with respect to canonical spatial-climate orientation ( Rossby waves). This longer term bias is exposed through the inter-decadal version of that teleconnector ( ID CGT). Kind of like the 22 years vs the 11 year solar cycles ( analogy...) The ID CGT is a newer version of the global spatial scaled circum-global teleconnector ... particularly notable in summers. I frankly see/sense something like this as being useful in winter, though. I suggest it is related to why SE Canada/NE and the Maritime of Canada have been biasing negative temp results, relative to the whole (in other words, these regions may be warm but lag in averages comparatively ), regardless of season. Not all months.. ~ 2/3 since 2000. I strongly believe whatever global forcing is responsible for moving the ID CGT is also causing height biases W on top of the 'terrain bulge'. Then the wave mechanics/mass balancing causes a downstream eastern continental behavior to calve backwards (NW) which shears heat from getting to Boston/limits duration. Thing is, we're still going to be 82.9 on day when climo is 82.1 ... so we're technically above normal. But the counter to this, in the W and SW ... seems to be an exponential gain.

This is an 'Andy Rooney': Not sure what the preoccupation for defining the culpability pie slices is all about in baking the end of the world. It's also perfunctory that nature provides cataclysms - yeah. okay. 'why are you telling us this' like it's novel? It seems attempting to dole out blame as being less because of anthropomorphic forcing is like seeking permission to keep doing it. The role of humanity is actively problematic to the world. That still exists, either way. - as an aside... there is an apparent lack of applied physical science backgrounds that echoes in the way voices are sounding off. It's coming across as regurgitated skepticism from other sources, those that push backs against human caused environmental urgency in a way that is fairly obviously rooted in agenda, at best sketchy motivated - Increasing melt water destabilizes land... that's just perfunctory. All this stuff about needing research isn't actually necessary because of that factored reality; that is already known. The amount of x-y-z should be less meaningful if you helped the killer aim the gun. Your contribution is not 0. At some point, that which is known needs to be applied as a common sense approach - otherwise you're waiting around to reinvent the wheel every time you have to jump in the care to go for a ride. You're not doing that - right? No need to prove melt water, plied to a bedrock - when it was visibly doing so - is going to cause a reaction. It's also a bad term, bed'rock' - when the generic ear hears bedrock ... they hear rock. Like a solid impenetrable igneous or granite-like substance. It's more like compact sedimentary deposits covered over by other regolith-ice composites that were the destabilizing aspects. Also, cracking deeper is perfunctory in repeating thaw and freezes, an oscillation of phase change forces that have been incurring with greater frequency over recent decades. All of this is not debatable. And as that has occurred post antecedent and ongoing concurrent warmer than normal setting that is heavily correlated already to CC breaching the high country up there... I don't believe your going to get a really 'in depth' report any more than than you would over whether wheels are round. stop this. Again, what is the purpose... this latter aspect is still happening, and since the variable cites fit it 100%, there's no use - humanity does not escape culpability.

Of course it did there was never any debate by anyone not either deluded or immoral - pick

Yet KFIT was 57 on the low ( +6 ), and 73 on the high (-1 ), for a net diurnal +2.5 (any rounding trickery notwithstanding) The Thornburgh effect - ...we'll see what happens before midnight for the low T but ... heh, see how CC works class ? you're only programmed to think this is below normal

Folks would be wise to architect winter expectations around higher than normal precipitation, only. Leave snow out of it. Too many reasons to go liquid rather than frozen.

It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high.

"Global warming doesn’t cause bedrock to buckle...." whaaaat, um, no. I mean I realize you're asking Don but I could help my self. Just in brief and off the top of the head, there are three easy aspects in how CC may both directly and indirectly factor. 1, glacial rebound. 2, liquid water fluxing 3, bedrock? With rebound, that happens because if land spends multiple multiple Millennia in a stable/colder climate regime, the ice accumulation weighs down. This gravitational anomaly supplies a constant pressure downward into the undergirding and surrounding bedrock. Over time ...succumbs by sinking. Remove the ice, the land may rebound... upward. And it doesn't do so according to any necessary ease. It tends to do so in jolts felt as tremors. With increasing melt ( liquid flux) the basal water may enter ground; in CC, the warming summer means this quantity is rising. Over decades, repetitious freezing and thawing literally cracks the Earth due to phase change expansion(contraction). How much so notwithstanding. But this is a weakening implication in the integrity of the supporting geology beneath the overriding ice - failure ( land slide) results. These two also work together. In fact, #2 actually happens first, then... #1 tremor triggers the landslide. Whether these factors were in play in the higher terrain/alpine region of Nepal, I am not claiming so.. But Mr Martz makes a blanket all preclusive statement that is epistemically false. Beyond these two, the third relates to, what officiating/reviewed source said or analyzed and proved that "bedrock" indeed failed? It is possible that the undergirding was actually a strata of compressed glacial deposits mixed with icy compressed rubble. An avalanche was inevitable - probably so, anyway, but if this was the type of supporting foundation beneath the overcasting of ice weight ( which itself was calving the leading segments), then the whole structure probably would not need to wait for the geological time for #1 and #2 to work together.

Slowly turnin' the fire up under the toads

looks like an April -NAO retrograde jet coming from the NE too

Definitely the rub ... whether ENSO is related or not, that 'bleeding into AK' is often a torpedo, and it's useful to note too because the model handling of the GOA is idiosyncratic; it's positive or negative interference in the actual state sends mid and extended range error. Smaller GOA errors in position seems toward a higher sensitive and a larger total response in whether cold conveyors orient more S or ... more importantly for cold/winter enthusiasts, deflects more E across the Canadian northern tier - regardless of CPF of or not. The latter aspect of La Nina hangover episodes is interesting, though. The whole RONI aspect is also relevant here.

To imagine that careening into the STJ over Texas, huh ho man

Not part of the conversation's immediate history here but... the EPO and PNA can sometimes be in the -EPO/+PNA tandem. When extreme enough, and fully physically realized on the actual hemispheric synoptic layout out, this results in the "cross polar flow" type. This is synonymous with a deep layer cold conveyor that patterns from Siberia, across the (pre-CC explosion era) frozen expanse Arctic Ocean, down over and usually E of the Canadian Rockies ... into the NP and ultimately frosting oranges in Florida. It's important to context that the longer term moment correlation between these indices is actually modestly positive. So having a tandem -EPO/+PNA should be rarer than the means, and well ... we don't actually observe a bona fide Cross Polar Flow set up so often and there we go... As an aside, when time lags are applied to the indices, I'm not sure ( though suspect it is so - ) if there is a better negative correlation that is exposed. Because I have observed countless times over 30 years of this crap, a -EPO --> +PNA over an ~ 3-5 day lapse. A time in which the EPO relaxes back to neutral aft of a +d(PNA). It gives the allusion if not physical exposure of a planetary wave roll out of the N. Pacific. This is not the same as cross polar flow. More like a "relay". It's the more common type and regulates the periodicity of cold loading events into Canada. For regions between the NP/GL-NE drape, the difference between a CPF hemisphere, vs this latter delivery, is probably less than meaningfully different - both showcase someone heaving a boiling cup of water to demo saturation vapor pressure causing half of it to explode into vapor, while the other half rings to the ground like shattered stemware. Maybe the CPF is 7 deg colder in the core of the cold extreme or something but below -10 F either way, wtf cares... Just sayn' ...

(psst startin to think 'people of earth, get a new planet')

Actually yeah... can almost see a pathway to improvement - yup, right when I f'n clicked Submit Reply. Told ya The visible loop now better exposes that there are two main ceiling layers. The higher one is moving exceptionally fast for this time of year... That's another thing. wow. Perceived 'back edge' moved from near Syracuse NY at dawn, to almost Albany in 1.5 hours. Some 150 miles ? that's 100mph. That seems a bit fast for September 1? more like a flat flow in winter thing. interesting. Anyway, depending on the underwear in this scenario...as the upper peals away here over the next couple of hours we'll see how much grunge lingers frumunda -

I only glanced at the NAM so probably low scoring anyway, but the front appears behind schedule relative to what I saw. Supposed to be thru the region far enough to improve skies and elevate temperatures all the way to Logan by 2pm. Looking at morning satellite, doesn't lend much confidence of those two metrics laying into the area, huh. I'm routinely wrong in this morning arm chair analysis shit, though. I always see them pessimistically and then usually ... the moment I click 'Submit Reply' it was as though the button really said should, 'Clear skies and warm up anyway' hidden from me. So we'll see.

It seems NE of New York City this summer ... we rain just fine synoptically, as we've had three definitive events each raining pan-regionally 1.5 to 3" ( yes with some exceptions in either direction). Anything remotely related to convection has resulted in either less, or not at all...depending on one's specific location. This is just going from memory and being a weather dweeb and always paying attention to what's going on.. so, taken fwiw I have only had one direct thunderstorm at my location. It occurred when I was away on vacation. Otherwise, ...nadda. I realize this region of the continent does appear challenged for convection - certainly there is a grousing/commiserating support group mentality going on in this social media over the matter ( jesus -). But relative to our climatology, nadda is an exceptionally low result even for SNE summer - both by numbers and anecdotally. I can honestly say, I've never seen that in the 45 years I've been a New Englander. I actually have a high confidence understanding as to why this took place, but if the orbit of the moon is the extent of the average reader's attention span or even will to use the energy to read in here, the former explanation unfortunately requires the orbit of Pluto ... so -

In October today would be +10

100% It's not a matter me agreeing. The bold, and in fact all this is so. Whether one agrees or not.

Ha ...right. You know, no one's asking; this is purely personal - I'm so f'n fed up with winter's being some how some way just not nearly as impactful or even interesting to watch unfold ... years stacking on top of years of that shit, too, I've given up on that ever being different. For one, CC leans in the background and at some point, we have to admit that winter's as we knew them will be gone forever. That's just incontrovertible logic - we cannot continue to warm and expect snow. At some dope slap obvious to objective reality point in future time, the former will stop the latter. I sense some of that is claiming winter's real-estate already. Probably why these winter's are becoming increasingly more challenged to finding a foothold over the longer term "quality means". Which we hide in time locality just because we happen to get two storms that were 20". 20" storms used to be rare; CC -drive H20 vapor density increasing in the ambient makes that more possible. But this is transient during this part of the CC curve... Those are destined to be rain events in similar atmospheric structures of the future. While in between them, like Brian intimates very correctly, we're floating above climo in the ambience. This is the insidious nature of CC. It's not going to "turn off" winters like that. It's going to erode at the edges and punch more and more holes in previous assumptions of interim storm behaviors here and there. Ultimately ... diminishing returns. It could happen faster? sure. It could slow down and regress one year or two or even three over a decade, but the destiny ain't changin' I feel we're already going down that road... and doing so at a bad time of my life. I'm middle aged now, a time when a lot of people quite naturally start losing interest in winter anyway. I think I have to admit, I'd rather continue with outdoor activities straight through. So, I'm feel both my ability, and will to defend winter, combined to putting my interest in deep trouble. I realize I may be one in maybe 3 or 4 members in this particular social media that share's in any similar motivation. I'm not here to diminish winter for anyone else. It's just a take I don't deny. Folks can still count on me to be objective about individual threats and/or general pattern assessments.

The pattern foot with the -CGT summer synoptic has plagued now for 6 weeks .. and is striking hard locally. It's ultimately causing the deep flow to sag over SE Canada --> confluence, which in turn generates a stalled albeit weak ( but still stronger enough than the sub trop high, S) high pressure in the perfect location to bang us like a upstate NY rape shack. It's stealing what remains of our geriatric dying summer with this achronological BD stagnation shit we have going on - wedging in other words. It was 88/79 at several sites I observed around the S Great Lakes yesterday afternoon, a latitude that is essentially the same as Worcester Ma. And as that annotation above demos, this is not autumn - straw man argument - this is a location's bad luck with respect to the how the gears of the hemisphere put us in this resulting cool local anomaly. The models are attempting to break this down and introduce some late gasping attempt at heat, ...when the sun is gone ... ...but they've also been doing this beyond D5's for few days now and we keep correcting troughs as digging through eastern ONT/QUE - so long as the latter happens, this will go on to being the earliest end of summer in decades perhaps... a qualification buried by the sensible appeal of still being sort of mild or even warm from time to time since late July.

The warm front never actually got N of you ...