Typhoon Tip

word. thanks. not really much of a cfs user but ... I'd have thought that'd be more first half tendency

What are we looking at here? (there's no headers on this image -) anyway, this also reflects higher latitude blocking.

heh, imagine if this solution turned out warm biased, huh

Boil them frogs, boy

If this indeed turns out to be this year's nadir, I find that interesting - it'd be the earliest of all recent seasons, regardless of magnitudes, whence the nadir took place

As a Meteorologist with a turbo-dork cape, I can tell you that QRA is occurring at all spatial-temporal scales. Not just seasonal - I realize you're not suggestion so ... but I just think it is important to make the distinction. Individual stalled thunderstorm that dumps 10" of rain in a single afternoon is a harmonic/constructive interference event, at very small scale. The Pacific NW historic heat burst was a 10 .. 2 wk aspect in 2021, at perhaps intermediate. China, above, is more seasonal in scale involving a continent (altho I suspect the seasonal duration is an aggregate of intermediates in repetition, interruption by transient linear destructive interference suppressing the planetary scaled harmonics ... gets complex in a hurry) I believe it is important to understand that resonant feed-back is a phenomenon that should not be defined by lengths of existence. Its occurrence needs to be 'on the radar' (sorry for that pun) as a possible out of the blue general threat awareness. Synergistic emergence as a phenomenon is less constrained by spatial dimension - although smaller scaled ones do appear to have shorter ramp up times than those that affect at continental scales. This fits both the early climate-modeled warnings of a wide variance future, one that has also become objectively observed, too. As an aside ... I suspect there may be late October through mid December winter or quasi-winter loading patterns across N/A ( the severity and/or lengths of which are impossible to determine in seasonal predictions - just to be weary of them) Those would not necessarily go on to characterize the entire winter season ( DJF ). We can actually see this when objectively looking back at the last 20 years of climatology, too. Some of this idea is footed in recurrent observation of them, both objectively and subjectively increasing in frequency spanning climate recency. These so called 'cold meanders', some half the OND's since 2000 have hosted either snow or snow supporting synoptic, whence the ensuing (DJF) went on to banality. The latter because the hemispheric gradient in these latter months become compressed, speed up the goestrophic flow everywhere requires coherent emergence of more planetary scaled waves, a latter property emergence that can be entirely new compared to whatever has been occurring during the latter autumn and earlier winters.

There's a strangeness about the local hemisphere ( along 30 N from west of California, east to the Sargasso Sea/N. Atl Basin ) where the ridges are perforated by all these pinch mid/u/a/ lows and/or TUTTs and such. That circumstance hugely limits the likeliness than any MDR TC would firstly be able to survive the increased shear quotient in the means. Also, another likeliness killer is that steering fields are not west-->east along extended distances because these punched holes in the ridge offer too many more opportunities that encourage capture into early retirements. (hint, I know why that overall circumstance is happening, but the CC explanation rubs those that swear by not denying while denying any evidence that connecs to CC ... CC is real so long as it doesn't interfere with the prospect of d-drip potency, huh )

I'm not sure what the science is in this area of TC genesis ... or if there's any correlation at all, but this current high ranked invest out in the MDR has a very large initial mass field envelopment. I'm wondering if that presages a system that is also spatially larger than normal? It is evolving westerly return flow along the equatorial side, as evidence by cloud material/satellite, but these initial stages of that evolution extends to an unusually vast distance SW and S, some 500 km ...

That’s a pretty low bar

I would add a historical ramification ( possibly by design ...? ) It would keep the populous in the dark; ignorant and less informed people are typically more tolerant of manipulation for the simple fact that they don't know or suspect any better. Either planned, or just a very fortunate precursor roots to eventual Stalinistic exertion. Communism probably found its root suppression zeitgeist through that passage, to become all but cheered on by acceptance.

44 to 71 in just under 3 hours that's like desert recovery rates there

It could come back... but you're proooobably safe. truth be told .. the diving cold pool cinema of Euro/GGEM looked a little dubious all along. I wouldn't sell at least a diving S/W, though - not sure that would be enough to trigger much but the risk wouldn't be zero. As related topic ... this journey is a nice example of the recurring de-amplification theme that's been plaguing all guidance really for several years on going. I mean at this point I just automatically deduct something like 20 or even 40% off any D7 anything the models might be showing at that range. If a cyclone is on the EC in a Euro's D8, it has to be a 950 mb worst storm in the history of Jupiter in order for us to achieve a standard Nor'easter. I'm not sure why that is, that seemingly dependable amplitude collapse when moving modeled events from .. D8s to D4s and so forth. I am a decent sci fi author. I can pen all kinds of plausible causes for that predictable error - speculation. I'd love to have a lunch with the director of modeling at NCEP - if any such post actually still exist.. heh. Speak candidly about this subject. I could see all this being done deliberately, so that they always see the worst case scenario - plausible cause 1. I mean, they're not in the business to entertain us, much to our chagrin. Their responsibility is to protect people and property. So, it would be bad if they were always modeling pieces of shits that turned into historic roses going the other way, huh. Or not. who knows

Impressively steep radiational cooling resulted last night. 60s above ~700 ft and present hour, while lingering 40s in some places lagging recovery underneath. FIT's bounced 20 already ... 44 --> 63andchange Looking at the NAM's grid we could be 80 to 82 later on.

get used to that this winter ... 'Euro/GGEM collapsing toward progressivity' once we get toward mid winter, suspect a lot of pissin' and moanin' ha

so much for that. The Euro/GGEM collapsed pretty far toward the GFS' more progressive, less digging cold pool Sunday. Bye-bye tentative severe. In fact, even QPF chances are almost dried up entirely. So ... should this be the case, let it be known, GFS did considerably better than either the Euro or Canadian from a range of ~96+ hours.

it was there yesterday/suggestively when I brought it up

yeah... this is what I'm seeing. Timing looks good with rather sudden height falls arriving nearing 18z associated with that rather intensely nucleated cold pool diving in. Sun matters..

yeah... it'll depend on the usual - timing with still some feeble heating potential during the day... But the kinematics look decent from this range. The GFS has been demoing terrible continuity with that synoptics of it so, more Euro and/or or Euro/GGEM blended.

As I've gotten on into middle age-dom, my winter anticipation has changed. I'm not just like this guy at the mere thought of winter anymore. There's all kinds of rules now. Like, if it is going to be a perpetual 44 F with wind over bare earth boning? Leave the region and don't leave any forwarding contact information - it doesn't exist while gone. Out of sight. Out of mind. Even if there's a threat in there some-whence, it's too late. No interest. Winter is hell. F you! Complete ghosting of New England However, if winter is actually going to perform like a Rockwellian nostalgia? I'm all in. The problem is, due to CC's one-eyed bum monster, the boning option is probabilistically favored. <-- that simple sentence causes internet fights, but when the dust settles, it's still unfortunately true.

Ha ha... without even a local, either. no but but seriously, it's like they ran this frame from my cellar. I've been ruminating - much to the chagrin of others ... - that I don't see how/why the wind scarped, shear stressed, resonance failing high variance winters of the last 10 years won't simply repeat, despite all leading indicators and that most confidence inspiring metric off all: spontaneous crowd physics emerged cause for exuberance. LOL If you can ferret out some usefulness in that super nova of adjectives, it goes something like a repeat of recency. But yeah... I mean not in an absolute sense. Tendency to do so... I think our best shot at avoiding that absoluteness ... would be the ~ mid Nov to early Jan span. After that ... we'll see on the SSW/AO modulation stuff - I have to tell you though ...I am one of the original SSW guys from 20 years ago. I used to hammer the theoretical side, replete with graphical displays and annotated charts. I have since toned it down, however ... Because, I've noticed over the years that despite the correlation between (specifically...) down-welling stratospheric warm plumes ( i.e., not merely having a warm plume present - huge comprehension problem with this still exists ...), the -AO response then has a less correlative forcing on the temperature distribution at mid latitudes. Note, less does not mean no - it implies not all -AO's have the same talent. This is a-priori evidenced in the fact that there's a maelstrom of mid and lower latitude teleconnectors that come along with their own capacity to overwhelm. That can mean everything from a general offset, to forcing events over in Asia.. .etc.. Basically, we need to have a constructive interference after the fact of a down-welling AO, to really make it useful/correlate to our wintry results. Otherwise, the transience of the -AO response can come and go with variable actual fruit to bear. The other aspect is that these SSWs and or just warm intrusions at higher latitude, seem to happening later in the seasons - not enough data for confidence here.

I still suggest this should be watched on Sunday ...

Mm ...don't take that sneaky diving mid/u/a cold pool on Sunday for minimal, necessarily. that looks likes like a gusty outflow hailer producer. We have a west wind at the surface with NW at 700 mb, so we're taking our positive shear and rotating it around the dial, while the heights are rapidly falling at mid levels along with lower glaciation height through mid day with that diving aspect. It's prevalent on the overnight operational runs and is still D5/6 so the notion could vanquish... but that feature's been there in some for or another fairly consistently. so we'll see. 06z gfs lost it but had in the 00z, ranging to the aggressive cmc... Euro's sort of in between.

The overall tenor for a big winter we're currently dancing to from the social media speakers is emerging out of the CPM: "crowd physics model" For me anywho, it can't be geo-physical. There are certain aspects that are not refutable. The recent 10 or so year's worth of winters have rattled the out-of-classical-box teleconnector scaffolding: air and seas. These winters are showing a consistent shear stressed, mid and upper level velocity saturated hemisphere, regardless of the aforementioned states. Also, a time span in which I've read a lot of peer reviewed material elucidating these behavioral changes as both directly observed, and CC-attributable. That is not going away. Certainly not because crowd noise is resonating to some emerged popularity tempo. You're not asking me... but, I've mentioned recently that I do feel low confident for an early loaded either winter, or perhaps pattern that's quasi winter oriented... latter November through Dec. Emphasis on low confidence. The primary logic behind that is the science of increasing frequency of transient blocking during shoulder seasons. These are creating early and late "cold meanders"/vortex displacements. This happens in winter ( DJF ), but I'm seeing this as kicking in during Octobers and as late as May, if perhaps subtly but enough to distribute cool anomalies and cryo-supportive air mass events into mid latitudes. Articles are out there being dropped occasionally... https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq9557 Otherwise, I've seen other articles about the increased jet wind speeds, too - bit of separate consequence conjecture/science. It's an aspect you and I have discussed anecdotally in the past, and then the conjecture emerges in peer reviewal ..so - tfwiw. It's real, and the increased speed is causing resonate instability at all wave scales - teleconnectors are more unstable. We can certainly set up a 2015/Feb resonate look still, but there may be a reason why it's taken 10 years and we haven't really seen much more stable set ins. The knee jerk argument is that 2015 is a rare outlier, but the evades the point of time. This is different than the 1980s ( for example). The 1980s was longer lasting resonance that was not good much of the time. We're now getting screwed more and more in recent years because of behavioral aberrance. It's different. This is the other side of the same large variance coin that's been noted all over the world. Regions can be -20C, and then +20C, in the same month in 1955... but less frequently. And the beat goes on... Thus, I wouldn't guess (if) an early winter-like regime ( or perhaps a couple of them) characterized the Thanks Giggedy to Jan 10 span occurring, would characterize the whole way. Still, a 2013-2014 analog may be incidental. I noted in that SST comparison - though likely missed... - that the SST anomaly distribution up there in the NE Pac is not driving the weather pattern base-state. It is in fact the weather pattern's quasi coupling ( via sea surface wind stress distribution) that eventually accumulates or dissipates those cool/warm periods. It just so happens to be, that coincides/correlates with NW cold loading through Canada, around a planetary wave signature - more obvious in winter ... but, August being cooler? worth the consideration. If that persists, the early winter would also fit that. So these are some "modestly" compelling leading circumstances. As an aside, I also like the fact that the nadir of the sea-ice loss in the arctic shallowed considerably over recent years: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh

At a glance that’s looking like 2013-2014 for the record … the sfc wind stressing associated with larger atmospheric circulation mode sets this in motion/emergence. The SSTs aren’t driving the winter pattern tendency - it’s an indicator for governing circulation biases; whatever causes the one is causing the other

It glazes eyes over - apparently - in here, as I've tried to explain this aspect about nature - it doesn't report back like anyone gets it. It's probably me and my writing... Gradient is everything. Not sure why it doesn't resonate with the 'cognoscenti' of the site but ...heh. Anyway, warm water doesn't cause hurricanes ( I'm just using your post as a staging launch) it doesn't What is correlated to TC genesis is the qualitative state of the [empirically observed] sounding, which has also long been geophysical derived thermodynamically. The tropical sounding (identified by some dude, Jason Dunion) has warm air moist air from the surface to 500mb give or take. But as you head toward ~ 300 mb level the DPs drop way off: such that the wet-b temperature is relatively low. So, you have a statically unstable environment ( CAPE -heavy air), with warm dry air over top. This initially tends to resist intability in that high level ( which incidentally...due to thermal wind consideration, tends to outflow/divergence ...hence why we look for anticyclonic wind fields at high levels). The divergence excites/forces UVM. The arriving warmer psuedo-adiabatic turrets turbulently mix, lowering the temp ... which adds to the instability/UVM above 500 mb/acceleration. There's bound to be exceptions. Of course...that's why there are 'phase transition' cyclones that quasi overlap. But should these soundings deviate significantly enough ...doesn't matter how warm the water is. No TC. The sounding as described above really outlines a thermodynamic gradient. Like every system that exists in the Universe, the greater the change between A vs B ( which is the gradient ), the more violent A --> B ... that's the difference between a stressed out coughing TC, versus Dorian 175 mph oil driller. Not talking about mechanical stress like shear and so forth. But there's no point in considering these latter mechanics if the thermodynamics are not satisfied to begin with.