Typhoon Tip

--I wouldn't call it "disdain", per se. But definitely reservations. Certainly, a measured approach - not happening.... One should always understand "how" things work. AI is at a sort of 'intellectual event horizon' beyond which it cannot be fathomed - not by 98% of the using population. There is a crisis of social mores, and breakdown of common morality. Example, what used to keep mass shootings ( for example) down to one or two every 10 years going back to the 1920s. People just didn't act to absurdly. Much less conceive of ever doing so in the first place. All but just a very small tiny fraction of beyond-fringe psychosis were at least sufficiently guided, these acted as at least tenuous, but in place nonetheless. safe-guards that kept things in check. Now? one every 6 months, a number that far exceeds the "very small fraction" number. Something is motivating enough to indoctrinate merely untoward ideologies into committing to specific actions. And if anyone has a modicum of understanding about sociology and history, they'll see that the most fantastic force to ever have impacted humanity, during and immediately preceding that uprising, wasn't just fire or the wheel. It has been this unchecked innovation --> advent of technologies, since the Industrial Revolution, that is proven too profoundly capable of unilaterally either helping, or afflicting at a species level. The fairest way to define this era is truly a techno-sociological experiment at an evolutionary scale - one that 90some% of the population density will lack the capacity to even be aware of what it is they are being unwittingly subjected to ... Can't end well playing with Cosmos' gun. Failure to understand and commit to the virtuosity of understanding how something works, that same something that one is allowing to guide them? That is a problem when people intertwine with it in blind presumptive faith. From one end of the spectrum of miss-use, to the other end of becoming co-dependent, then having it fail: Where does that leave us?

That's not the scary part. Not really. The scary part is that there are those that seem to be "gifted" in their utilization of the technology - just naturally so. Like they seem to gravitate toward usage. Just seemed 'get it' with a lucidity in engagement that makes them synergistic, ( potentially ) immensely powerful - with great power comes great responsibility. How irresponsible is that going to be?

Heh... y'all must be new to this social media engagement lol

Again ... setting expectations proportional to what is becoming (otherwise) too painfully clear to ignore, will do wonders for ameliorating one's angst. When the flow slows, it's too warm to snow - or tends to be. I've learned to just know this will result - and I've been right more often then not. I feel no distraction. Acceptance will set you free! Related to that ... I was looking at the 300+ hr Euro and that's remarkable. 570 dm heights over the EPO domain, almost that high over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, and the flow in between spanning the continent is compressed at the nadir. So much so it's intrinsically a +velocity-related negative interference pattern. So it's like yeah ... there's cold around ( still - ) but getting it to 40N, here we are again. Seeing so without this negative result has been rarefying.

Why bother I just rather the ridge go ahead and take over rather than swinging wildly between 57 and misty light rain and faux swarm sector winds to 35° dry northwest flow and back and repeat? Fuck that. If that east biased negative NAO ends up over N Europe … the mid N/A continent ridge will take over. it can’t trend anymore. Two days ago when the NAO first showed up it was west.

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6+ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6”ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

My dad told me a story growing up in late 1940s… Had an ice storm like that across Southern lower Michigan. This is long before the current kind of infrastructure or even highway system was nearly as evolved as it is now so probably lacks notoriety but anyway. He said that after about an inch and a half of accreted ice, it transitioned to snow and they had 8 inches on top. That’s something I’ve always wanted to see - a major on top a major

Yeah, I mentioned ice earlier… I haven’t had a chance to expand on any of that. In short it does look like we’re trying to move toward more of polar boundary being on the doorstep. No need to expand on those kinds of vulnerabilities. It put’s a lot of stuff back in play. It doesn’t look like a clean warm departure as much as it did yesterday - plenty of time

Still a long way off but ... should the EPO surprise blossoms like that there's ain't gonna be no warm end of the month

12z Euro's Currier&Ives

crippling ice storm

yeah.. I've often mused that, 'hey man, I was raised in the Feminati' when seeking defense in discussions with militant lesbians

Haha.... right. For me, it's what I call "non-representative cold" that's annoying. This is non-representative when it's just cold. Yeah, one gets sick of that. And it actually doesn't take long to get to that opinion. Like, a one failure to represent and up! I'm ready for February's annual 10th exit of the solar minimum and hearing about Ray's canonical warm bum on his car seat. heh. just kidding Cold is a necessary evil if we want to have interesting winter Meteorology though. So long as the latter is a part of the cold, no issues.

yo yeah not sure yet. It may be a last minute thing. I have a huge family. Not sure if I've ever exposed this but I have 9 sisters and they all have demands of one another's time - including their sole bro. Since, truth be told, there are only 7 still living, that's like a political urgency to be ... anyway, there's a thing tomorrow - not sure how long. There's some conflict there.

You know i'm not part of this conversation but I've always felt that 'conditions' aspect is over applied. We used to play in the "Waltham League" back in my late 20s and early 30s. Great era of life really. Despite all protestations of the times, looking back, I'd love to go back - maybe even do some things differently. Anyway, we met up around 9 or 10am on Sunday mornings before the Patriots game - mind you, this was when the dynasty was just getting going. Imagine that? 20 guys supposedly doing flag football; eventually just ended up being so aggressive that guys took hits once in a while; all the while, visions and fantasies of being somehow a part of said dynasty. Ha. It was a great time. Then afterwards, we haul our steaming bodies to the Mad Raven on Rt 20, for Guinness and IPAs ... wings and Patriot's victories. Oh where was I going ... so we were literally steaming. There were a couple of mornings where it couldn't have been more than 20F, over a few inches of trampled packed snow on the field, and by 3rd down of the opening drive both sides were down to t-shirts. Just going by experience, football is a hot f'n sport man. Now... okay, if it's -10 F like the Ice Bowl game or whatever, sure. But if's just a normal climo winter's day, and their playin' it's hard for me to imagine cold being much of a factor.

The 0z GFS was similar in principle. From this range ...of course, neither has much substantive value. Have to wait it out on details and dailies. However, there is a new character that's shown up to the plot. The EPS made a move overnight that may offer nostalgia's salvation for the the Holiday week. It's very new, so we'll have to see if this continues. It's the North Atlantic Oscillation. The thing is, the actual index numbers from the GEPs and GEFs do show a slight correction down .. hmm. The EPS was a bit more representative, though. It's very all or nothing in that last 10 days of the month. If we end up on the N side of the ambient polar boundary, than record warm still - likely - happens in the conus, it just won't make it in here...where we will be at risk for something like a 00z GEFs and/or Skynet type of stalled boundary with mixy shit running along. So big contrasts along the boundary... A west-limb -NAO expression would limit warmth expansion over the eastern continent no farther than 40N. Again, it's a fledgling signal... But, as we had that -NAO about 6 weeks ago, when it decayed ... we relayed into the -EPO mode. The NAO's been in hiatus since. The EPO now failing to refit ( while the -WPO continues to fester ..different story - ), and with the PNA going negative, the longer term correlation on -PNA is actually the -NAO. So there's climate-wise support for NAO to reassert. These index correlations are not 1::1 of course; they can verify in an aberrant/unexpected state. Something to keep an eye on if your the winter/Holiday symbolism types. It's at least based on a real observation from the tools themselves. Yesterday at this time, this observation could not be made; I posted direly, accordingly... but, sometimes, that's all that is needed LOL

'Good Heavens! are you guys still trying to win?'

This GFS run is a riot major coastal and a foot for interior, then 590 hgts 5 days later off the EC. That's a spring antic man. Typical on an extended range March chart

Still waiting on the Euro myself

Accounting for the typical NAM biases at this range this is largely a non-event. I'm waiting on the Euro but with all the pieces firmly now inside the denser/more physically realized sounding inputs, this hasn't trended favorable. Probably was time to move on earlier but in deference to desperation ( lol ). Anyway, the next possible notoriety in the pipeline is possible historic warmth during the week of Xmas. I know ... I know, not a notoriety some would incline to marvel. But, it is what it is. Unfortunately for the winter/snow/Currier&Ives settings enthusiasts, the following is more coherent than not. The indexes signal a warm period. This is suggested numerically, but is definitely than supported when noting the idiosyncrasies of the spatial layouts coming from the different clusters that has been emerging over the last couple of day's worth of cycles They've all been incrementally retrograding the -WPO ridge W, across the N. Pac. Meanwhile stopping/signaling any emerging positive non-hydrostatitc hgt anomalies amid the EPO domain region. Meanwhile, the PNA slipping negative through Jan 1. So with +EPO/-PNA, this does correlate well with a Pac NW River-type circulation mode, which then teleconnects downstream with the SE ridge response. This is uneasy, as we've been seeing this feature there - albeit suppress and compressed - despite the current cold pattern. When that compression relaxes in lieu of the above, that sort of implies a carte blanche in latitude with the SE aspect. I wouldn't get to blown away by amplitude for now. Although ... I must admit, I'm fighting the impression that warmth is like .. in a state of always being spring-loaded. When the cold relaxes, go the other way above "Climate anomalies" more frequently than we used to. That's also lurking in there. We'll see

You'll probably be right ... seasonal prediction's not my thing. I'm just basing that on part hunch, part knowledge related to -ENSOs of this bandwidth. But I'm also of the mind that ENSO is often too heavily weighted in the game. NP-GL-NE are modulated by polar index modes; I just see this year as having polar field abandonment issues later on. That leaves the continent S of ~45N vulnerable to early warmth. I'm thinking along the lines of how big spring warmth has a correlation to preceding Ninas. Not really the type of correlation the average engagement in here might accidentally stumble upon, much less ever pursue LOL. So experimental -

Wasn't a formal forecast but it was the right idea. Once the front winter onset terminates to inevitable warmup (whenever that happens ...) the question will become, does the aft half get back to business. My present thinking is still leaning on reduced hours and a lot of unscheduled signs flipped to 'Sorry we're closed' (lol). I would never suspend January. Not yet anyway (sniff). But sputtering into an early spring...? why not. One of these flower Februaries.

GFS won ?

I could see a NAM low developing and maybe clipping southern southeastern zones as it’s blowing up going out - NW bias notwithstanding. But then we fill back in with radar with inverted trough of some sort because… that’s a very deep polar core coming down at mid/upper levels that’s gonna generate a ton of instability, even in this cold air