Typhoon Tip

More reliance on interpretive automation technologies.

I like that phrase turn there ... I'd go so far as to call it Industrial tabloidism. I've mused in the past, the moment in history when greed figured out how to turn channel changing, mouse clicking, and eventually ...thumb swiping into money, that was the moment in history that civility was doomed.

In the midwest it's known as 'Farmer's Gold' .... late nitrogen fixing for agrarian vitality and stuff.

about a 10/10 nape factor. 43 F with 0 wind and high sun. Very dichotomous sensations going on...

you can see the snow coverage pretty fantastically here... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

ha... watch, the polar boundary ends up PIT - ACK ...and we have 38 -r with one or two pellets that day

Yeah, 3" seems a lot. It may be enough 'in the bank' to last it out.

I doubt it... The continent is too dry. The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country. Good luck. If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS? not much cloud. That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

Yeah, I'm also at the same time a little apprehensive about going super warm at any point prior to getting that fucking piece of shit 90/60 negative anomaly scoured out of the Canadian Shield once an for all. It's not like it's very readily observable as an influence, but it is definitely an influence our our weather, nonetheless. The polar boundary with the exceptional temperature gradients we've been observing along the S periphery of the rough NP-GL-NE/MA regions is because it is up there, perpetually loading dope cold into those regions ( or attempting to); at the same time there's a CC residue/tendency to go above normal where ever and when ever the sun is working on Industrial stained atmosphere underneath it. Historic heat wave in PHX, notwithstanding. Lot of descriptive prose in there that probably lost the comprehension of about 6 return users ...with a possible 7th, but excluding those razor sharp contributors to the site brain, most people are aware of both the frequency, and rareness, of 34 to 80 across a mere 200 miles phenomenon recurring this spring so far. In addition to steepening the gradient ...it also prones our region to BDs and/or failing warm frontal positions in general. But, you know ... there are two aspects concurrently true, and are observationally competing. We are not hugely below normal in temperatures to date - in fact, +3 in March at HFD and ORH! The pattern is a colder than normal construct. That concurrent state is a nuance that I fully personally believe exposes the fact that heat is merely just suppressed, but not absent. And there is a difference there. Whopping important one, too. For one, it's confusing... but for another, it's hard to go multi-day safely in a warm sector while all this stuff is in play.

how much did you wind up with ? I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser. It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man. The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it. It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

As an aside, today and tomorrow both should bust MOS like 1-3 F I think. It's not a huge or even noticeable thing. Not 'busts' per se. Just that we are Sep 3 sun equiv, with just about as unadulterated solar as is physically doable on this planet, with the possible exception of say 1,000 miles out amidst the Sahara ... I doubt these machine numbers have the lowest 500 feet of explosive super adiabats locked down. It's a fetish of mine to test MOS in April and May

I suppose if you have 6 days to know it's coming by the time it does, meh. When it comes to na na na-na scaling ( haha ), in order of irate the least is that one. 3 is knowing for days your fucked. Oh k... gradual acceptance. 2 is surprisingly BD's ... you'd think they'd be #1 but no... Usually you have some inkling that a BD is possible. Also, knowing it's BD time of year ... 1 is when it is warm for days in the charts. Plans are made. Then, the models pull the rug at that sweet 36 hours ahead deliberate look. This rendition is the most annoying. To help qualify this .. imagine a historic blizzard, not like that isolated SE Mass job last Feb... I mean interior VA to Maine, in 2-3 feet of snow, with a stall off Montauk Point across 2 cycles of Lunar tides, for 5 days of guidance. Nat Guard is on call... APs are preemptively canceling flights. General states panic as ems light up FEMA web-site graphic. General state of dopa O.D. awe --> 36 hours out that first model run with nothing. umm

KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/08/2026 0000 UTC WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| CLIMO 33 55 X/N 48| 24 59| 35 66| 44 60| 32 60| 44 70| 55 75| Heh, nothing like being 20 points above climo at both ends of the diurnal range, at 6 days lead time in a MOS product that is pretty heavily weighted toward climatology at that range ... I do think next week is kind of 'first test' for this summer - personally - because I feel this year's season has a shot at some historic heat. The reason primarily being the pan-dimensional dry antecedent continent, with lower persisting soil moisture anomalies, right as we are about to jump into the highest sun angles of the year. Keep in mind, we are less than 1 month from solar max entry... on or about May 6. We just need to shed the 90/60 polar vortex and things can turn around and catch civility off-guard. We still live in a CC-enraged synergistic heat event planetary system and that's not going away... This seems to be a good candidate year to test if we send the mercury into over-achieving warm results, both relative to pattern... but relative to "when it gets hot". Again, we need to get the patterns ...so we'll see. In the meantime, this next Tues/Wed, if that boundary does hull up NW and leaves our region soaked in WSW flow of dry kinetically charged air mass, that's an opportunity to over perform. Being 20 over climo weighting at D6 isn't trivial

The targeted for misery factor might be even more delicious the next day on Wednesday...

Brian's rage would know no bounds should this be the status at 21z this next Tuesday afternoon. Or PF! haha. Nothing like an 82, Metrowest of Boston, while it's a warm cloth to the balls 38 in N VT

MOS should bust cool on Thursday

looks like sun for an hour along the Pike

By standard non-relative ONI convention, the strength index denotes 1.5 as the cut off for "strong" As I said, the modeling ( per CPC ) presently shows a cluster mean < than 1.5 (... granted, it's rising when the graph cuts off at the end of OND, only slowly). The problem is, RONI is a very necessary method for assessing how the ENSO modes might integrate/couple with the surrounding dispersion into the mid latitude pattern. It is less integrating, due to CC, for the purpose of discussion. But it's also not absolute... it's just an assessment tool. Those ENSO modes back before ~20 years ago took place in enough of a different global environment that a more linear approach was a better predictor. This is why the Relative ONI was constructed, because as the climate change accelerates ( frankly ) all these indices are either going to get suss or are already so. Anyway, CPC model mean rises to +1.3 or +1.4 but unfortunately the outlook cuts off before we know if mid winter rises beyond 1.5 ( probably so, just based on the trajectory of the graphical mean). However, laboring to 1.5, doing so during the Relative ONI methodology arm of a very coherent CC acceleration, doesn't smack as strong or super in the end hemispheric coherence. I think there's some excitement seeking - like another crowd emergent motif. Sometimes it just hits at the right timing, and it's vastly over popularized. It may in fact go on to rise to 2.8 ...becoming something special, but I wanna know what are the mathematical/analytic reasons.

The modeling looks like the key 3.4 region rises to just under +1.5 toward this next Xmas. Makes sense I suppose ... El Nino is Spanish for "Christ child" and is given to the name of the phenomenon for a reason; the canonical time of year for it to occur. Anyway, 1.5 is not super this or even very strong that. Where is this extremeness coming from ?

could be worse ... 44 years ago today, NYC-BOS were in the later stages of an April blizzard.

The (not so) sci-fi version of this El Nino... It will rise to historic proportions, but ... no one saw the bigger issue coming - though in retrospect, really should have. Why? because it already happened once, in 2023. The whole planet surged, by almost .4 C spanning a 2.5 month period that spring, brining the planet perilously close to the theorized threshold of +1.5 C over the IR. Only this time ... by a whole degree C Such that not only are we at 2.5 over the Industrial Revolution entry mean, it is so crazy warm that relative ONI renders almost meaningless outside of the immediate tropical atmosphere. Vaguely coupling to the mid latitude pattern ( meaning weakly correlating) It's going to be the first panic year of this ongoing CC explosion, which just moves slower than human perception - geologically? It's detonating. 0 summer ice in 5 years. Roth slides into the ocean... Global tsunamis claims a billion lives

OH yeah, that's an excellent point. I keep having to also remind myself that we are not running around naked at 3:29 a.m. when it's supposedly a warm cloth Asian massage out there. Seriously... there's probably a pretty significant sensible/exposure bias involved - there has to be... we're human "animals". Completely enslaved to what we see, hear, smell, touch or taste in our defining the nature of our surrounding. It's also as least partial in why CC is so easy to collectively deny ... it just doesn't readily appeal. Not readily enough.

I noticed that too... Might be the last snow in air we see outside alpine regions until the mandatory, season ruining Halloween 3.7"

These bold' are all of it. Two aspects zooming past one another in humanity's race toward the cliff. The first one is a complete and utter misconception about climate change, one that I feel pretty strongly is the fault of the origianl science PR vision. When it became clear in the atmospheric geophysical mathematics decades ago, their campaign felt like an attack on civility traditions... functional heritages ... generational ingrained ways and means. When in reality, global warming, per se, isn't the problem. Whaaaaaa ! It's not, not per se. The problem is, adaptation capacity. That's always been it, and as far as I can hear or read, very few seem to really know this. The world could warm 100 points - if all species can adapt, in time, the conversation is rendered moot. Whenever we hear these less than adequately educated self-appointed spoke persons of denial attempt to invoke the argument, "the earth has been warmer before", or "climate change is part of the Earth's history" ... we cringe. Once one understands that derivatives and partial derivatives in the integration of the whole system ( i.e., change with respect other factors ( DX/ DY) ) is what creates the nature of all and nature itself, they then know that the former talking points are just labels and scalars. Meaningless in the definition of what the problem really is. Those that continue to rely on the scalars and won't bother to get with the program, to paraphrase Brian Cox, 'you should be largely ignored ... even chastised'. Because your opinion is uncoupled from objective causality. The 2nd one is 'virtue signaling' ... At least the deniers are honest about their feelings - gotta give 'em that. Take the entire en masse acceptance demographic... of them, a scant % are actually doing anything to really curb their ways and means - they may as well be denying. I've been raging about the 5 senses evolutionary limitation on perceived threats for years. We are a species really only just on the cusp of escaping our primitive state - for the sake of discussion... call primal state any animal that is not modifying their own genetics, sending meat wagons to the moon, and on the verge of Quantum Computing ... We are smart enough to innovate these, which means ... we are also intrinsically capable of predicting how what we do will both effect and affect. Yet, we are still slaved to only believing what these intellectual gifts are telling us when we can see, hear, smell, touch, or taste the threat. I really think at a very fundamental, most discrete level ...that's it. You tell a person to step off the train track, 'a train is coming,' they pier up and down the rail in either direction - they must not believe it unless it is seen or heard. If they had, you never would have had to tell them in the first place. So, humanity is standing around on the track, arguing about the color shoes they are wearing to the engagement when it comes to this global warm stuff. Which is kind of funny, because what the hell else are the tracks for. Climate change doesn't really have a real-time observation-advocate that immediately appeals to the senses - this is a problem when attempting to convey any sense of urgency.

I'll tell ya... the GIS montly/NASA temperature anomaly product for March might be interesting. My hunch is, like every month since October it willl have a relative min situated over mid latitude eastern continent, while it is comparatively warmer to much warmer most everywhere else. I've been posting this product on or around the 10th of the months since, showing this repeating leitmotif to hide CC from Winterwolf hahaha