Typhoon Tip

All guidance looks smoother and less perturbed... fully committed to a signal almost 2 weeks in the making. Cleanest 500mb ridge cinema yet, one that's also 3 to 5 dm larger in both the x-y plain, and z coordinate integrals in the objective charts. Nice dome, because by geometric definition, that's exactly what a fuckin ridge is - unless you're on the spectrum. Now we can rely on it for communication and clarity, and since 500 mb is the only metric that really counts, there's no cause or reason not to hype the hell out of this sucker weee

Well, yeah that but I was talking about Western Europe a resurgence scenario. That ridge I annotated west of the Iberian Peninsula is in a critical mode/danger of engulfing the region episodically.

Don if you wanna look brilliant, I'd go and start suggesting if now outright warning western Europe to watch the July 4 weekend .. signal's grown across 7 consecutive model cycles as trend on top of a background hemispheric foot that's not actually changed the non-linear/synergism

Watch up for NH actually ... some minoring threat probably subtends down into our neighborhood.

Everything you've said to me to date has been demonstratively high-handed corrective and/or instructive in content, neither of which was or is necessary. "YOU'RE" is because the cap-lock was on and I did not see it - not helping that the site is stalling every once in a while. "Tough cookies" is perfectly fine - it means...no one is going to really care accept you about hype ( that no one really takes seriously anyway? ) which is endemic to the environment you both choose to be a part, and are not going to change. You need to chill

For about 4 hours earlier in the day things were moving along at click-speed. Then all at once it was as though a switch happened. Likely AM's traffic is routing through a device with mem consumption issue when there is load-balance switch at their ISP. Which they either don't know is occurring ( unlikely...), or do and are working on fixing it without telling - else they are liable and owe ...so they're douchy heh

YOU'RE unnecessarily critiquing. Don't Not to me anyway

In case there's those among us that don't already know this ... It's more useful with MEX to cite the value of surpassing climo weighting, than it is to cite how those machine numbers are what they are, when looking at the deeper range. Example, KBDL-KFIT-KASH are as of this 12z cycle, all 9 to 12F above climatology from D6 to 7 ( which is also warmer than the prior cycle, btw -). That says something is significantly offsetting climate in the warmer direction, and offers support to the emerging heat dome in the guidance. KFIT GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/26/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03|SAT CLIMO N/X 60 84| 61 83| 61 86| 64 86| 60 84| 64 92| 72 92| 66 58 81 TMP 69 75| 68 74| 70 78| 71 76| 67 76| 72 83| 79 82| 72 DPT 60 60| 61 60| 60 59| 63 61| 60 61| 64 70| 70 67| 61 CLD PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| CL CL| PC WND 3 6| 3 6| 3 5| 3 8| 4 6| 4 11| 6 8| 8 P12 13 7| 10 14| 12 0| 6 14| 12 13| 21 13| 15 15| 21999999 P24 19| 30| 12| 25| 20| 24| 22| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 4 5| 2 11| 7 6| 3 20| 6 8| 16 22| 22 22| 20 T24 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 34 | 39 KASH GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/26/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03|SAT CLIMO N/X 59 83| 60 82| 59 86| 62 85| 61 84| 65 91| 70 90| 65 57 81 TMP 66 74| 67 73| 67 77| 69 73| 67 75| 72 82| 76 80| 70 DPT 63 62| 64 63| 62 61| 65 64| 63 64| 69 74| 72 71| 65 CLD PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| CL PC| PC WND 3 5| 5 6| 4 5| 3 10| 4 5| 3 14| 6 11| 4 P12 11 9| 11 16| 9 0| 6 12| 11 12| 22 14| 15 15| 23999999 P24 22| 32| 10| 22| 19| 27| 23| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 4 5| 2 11| 7 6| 3 20| 6 8| 16 22| 22 22| 20 T24 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 34 | 39 KBDL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/26/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 27| SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03|SAT CLIMO N/X 62 86| 63 88| 63 89| 66 90| 65 88| 68 93| 74 94| 71 60 83 TMP 69 77| 70 79| 70 80| 72 80| 70 80| 74 85| 81 85| 77 DPT 60 60| 61 61| 60 60| 65 64| 63 65| 67 71| 72 72| 65 CLD PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| PC PC| CL PC| PC WND 4 7| 5 7| 5 7| 6 10| 7 8| 8 18| 10 12| 9 P12 8 11| 7 8| 11 0| 9 22| 21 13| 18 14| 13 14| 18 23 22 P24 17| 19| 11| 30| 26| 21| 19| 34 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 3 8| 3 6| 7 6| 3 30| 24 15| 14 22| 18 23| 15 T24 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 19 | 29 | 44

No one in here 'takes 2 meter temps seriously'. We've been discussing the limitations and logical factorization in why those limitation exists, for years prior to your coming in here recently and picking people apart when they are merely tracking heat - a vital and necessary aspect of in the rudimentary forecast philosophy You're talking to wrong person in the first place. "GFSX MOS still shows no 90 explicity forecast E of a LEB-CEF-BDL line," a, was first of all already addressed hours ago by yours truly, and b, is just as bad a logic as using 2-meter temperatures as deterministic. Why? Because as you go out in time, ex machine numbers are heavily weighted by climo. That obfuscates when the signals surpass climatology, which this does and probably one of us in this conversation needs to get with that program, accept it, and stop nit picking because ..I don't know, you don't like heat? or don't understand the placement of nuance hyperbole or something Tough cookies

wow... this ICON model has just been masturbating this heat idea, unrelenting. This rendition off 00z is truly historic next Thursday in the M/A ... No picnic in SNE either.

no issues today so far fwiw on American. from my end

God... even the Euro is with that solution still playing games finding ways to dent heat in New England. 138 hours, case in point... 18z Wed. at 12z that morning a dying MCS up around PF country sends an outflow boundary (probably) S thru Brian country, which acts as a trigger for firing off new convection by 18z over NE Mass. This creates an any excuse imaginable means to knock the Ts back into the low to mid 70s in that region, while 582 dm thicknesses are trying to move in from S Ontario. That day should just flat out be 98 F everywhere given holistic impression of the ongoing synoptic constraints, uh uh uhhh, except for haha spontaneous engineering of a convective sequencing that probably won't even f'n exist come next Wed. LOL. we'll see. Thursday does get the 92+ bigger heat numbers throughout... but I'd also caution that (as usual for 2-m at this range ) these are a little under cooked given to 21-23+C 850s and just about idealized low cloud/ligth WNW d-slope flow set up. 100 in NYC is noted...

Oper. GFS is skewed just enough W of it's own ensemble mean, as well as cross-guidance Euro comparison ... to implicate less heat for enter a reason here [ ] The EPS looks warm and matches the oper. Euro better as a holistic signal so taken fwiw, it seems more momentum at the moment for warm anomalies in that D6-10 range.

You can see the eastern N/A - western Europe positive correlation/teleconnector in these ensemble means. The only stress is that it's skewing slightly west but that's just idiosyncratic/within tolerance ... possibly explained by seasonal wave space George Kastanza

Yeah .. truth be told - I sense this is 'borrowed time' over here. I think we're regional neighbors? I consider you, Ray and myself as a kind of forum neighborhood.

It really is remarkable... I have only seen a single handful. I spend a considerable amount of time outside. Either golf, or disc golf ...working in the lawn... just hanging out. I'm outdoor oriented. Maybe they en masse have some sort of preferential migratory patterning that is lesser known to entomology. huh I mean I'm not complaining. LOL. We just had a good 2" soaking too - not buying the argument that it's related to background aridity because frankly it's never come off as, as dry, as the dystopian meme/fad has been framing anyway.

We should be able to see some interesting TCU structures today. Not sure how organized anything would be given synoptic ... It just looks like murk, warmed by the sun, bubbles up into pulse variety. But that can be locally fun for cloud gawking.

Any nit-picked plausibility that's been used to try and abase what is a clear, apodictic implication, notwithstanding ... that 00z operational Euro run fully committed to a heat wave later next week .. LOL At least at 500 mb... This is not "too far west". For heat enthusiasts that was a legit concern, but per this run, you'd be safe for bigger anomalies. And it's 3 days of it, too. D7

Like I said, a very small movement in the total mass structure of these featured layout cleans things up quite a bit. We're on the edge ... this, below, doesn't suggest heat can't get in here. But yeah, it's also close enough that some form or another of a SW calving ( which does happen as part of our climo - ) S out over top would present challenges to getting warm here. And agree on the MCS stuff given this config Too early to call either way. The continuity of the models isn't good enough at this range for having small room for adjusting.

It's been awhile since we've seen one of those nocturnal strobers running through southern VT/NH into NE Mass. 1990s had a few. Then...rather mysteriously, they went away. or the frequency just dropped dramatically

It's good analysis here but I would also caution for the other readers that this ridge's morphology has been somewhat unstable in the operational guidance - their respective ensemble means have at times actually implicated a warmer/less perturbed scenario which is interesting. I'm also noticing the end game has been correcting toward a warm numerical telecon values, so there may be some question about the rapidity in which the pattern breaks down - tbd. But as is... right. GFS has a stationary boundary dangling through the region heat never gets in here. Wouldn't take much of a bump and this cleans up considerable.

mm... it was like this in it's 00z run, too. Maybe not quite as extreme, but it's an east outlier with the 500 mb total placement of key construct when comparing pretty much everything else. "Some" would probably be wise to bear that in mind ... that, and that fact that this model - as far as we can tell - is actually an ICON of shitty forecasting technology

mmm one gets the distinct impression that model's attempting to limit or abolish heavy rain in the foreground, then, limiting any heat E of the Hudson ... leaving only the iffy hit or miss convection signal - which will be cleverly biased on the latter side of that chance.

For heat enthusiasts ...this is your problem for next week

heh 12z GFS is no where near the NAM's idea. Having seen that...I gotta lean on the NAM being the NAM N-W bias at 60 hours. If this were circa November 20th and we were in the midst of a cool snap anyway whether there's anything on the charts or not ... Ineedelectroshock posters of the forum would be presently representing their razor sharp objective restraint by going hee-haw hee-haw galloot galloot galloot over this NAM's 6-10" warning snow event, having fully considered and judiciously constrained their emotions over the matter .... Maybe the Euro or some other model supports.