Typhoon Tip

right- and part of my reason for mentioning is because there've been pretty much 0 milder weekend days, so far. as far as i can personally recall that is. All the warm/ish anomalies have been week days. Looking for the first no-snow-on-ground 70 F day with light wind on the weekend

Saturday was looked upper tier on the 00z Euro but you're not asking ... heh

You had to know/suspect that this particular spring would have a preponderance of these BD headaches.

In that solution/depiction? No, CT definitely porked too. Matter of how many inches haha.

12z NAM has a vicious W-E aligned frontal boundary on Wednesday ... It tries to get the region damn close to even freezing rain metro west of Boston. The FOUS grid has 0,0,+3 over Logan, which academically means 0C at the SFC. It's probably more like 32.9 It's all coming down to where to place this stationary boundary. The cold side is prooobably being over assessed ( NAM) in this case, but... in principle, we're still looking easily at 40+ deg F of variance across 100 miles or less with this set up -

00z guidance attempting to lure warm enthusiast into a set up ... muah hahaha I grew up in the ... antiquities of modeling yester-lore ( eh hm), and recall a day and times when if there were ever a BD on the chart near Maine... the verification snows in Atlanta Georgia. No not literally ..but if figuratively/sarcastically. Point being, the models were just inadequate in handling them, particularly because the physics for the lower BL was still being evolved, as well ... the modeling tech was intrinsically having very low resolution/grid point evaluation density when processing. Those limitations meant that BDs, being almost entirely in the lowest 250 mb of troposphere, were only quasi detectable. like hinted at ? Now, huge improvements in the wholesale modeling, from input density/grid resolution, to improvements in various BL assumptions in the baseline physical equations means that the models at least know that there is a BD on the map with far better coherence. They're even improving on the position of them, per interval. Having said that... those ancient early life abuses don't set me up very well for mature adult relationships with models - I tend to still be relationship avoidant/fear of intimacy when it comes to dating prospects that include actually holding off BDs. It doesn't help that BDs are by nature a 'rough sex' experience and I'm not into that sort of thing

Weird to see the Euro 60 hours ( 00z ) be so differently designed than the GFS. I did notice that the last 6 consecutive cycles of the the guidance have en mass/average been raising heights a tick or two...Now 582 dm over Logan ..versus 573 for this mid week's period from just a day or so ago. The Euro appears to be conceding to that with a frontal wave in NNE and Wed am warm sector ...front comes thru noon-ish but weak backside CAA in intense April sun, d-slope under lingering 850s in the +6 or 7 range... that's a decidedly different implication than the GFS. The Euro might actually be a better fit for that tendency to raise heights with the ridging/582. I guess in the strict Meteorological techy shit it's not that hugely different, but the sensible weather implication is really where the differences lie - and "lie" may be the best fit. Ha. Verbatim, this GFS (right) is orange lightning slow growl rumbler rains with chilly air undercutting into NE zones. Wet where mild so capped temperatures SW and basically ... blegh. The Euro on the other hand is probably 75 F with partliy sunny. Over all, there was less cold undercutting total synoptic implications across all guidance... Slightly but perhaps crucially less aggressive in that regard. I think I speak for the majority at this point, we hope so.

Nah BD’s ruinin every day post Tuesday down to NYC

No warmth on the Euro N of the Pike and ... heh, fronts seldom stall there, so may as well drill it to Morristown NJ... BD Tuesday relays to a cold front/CAA --> cycles all over again out to 300 hours, ending in an April snow storm. Have a nice day

I'm highly confident that when the March temperature anomaly is made available by NASA in a couple of weeks it will reveal the 6th consecutive month where a cold sink hole's apparently anchored over the NE' U.S.

You have me as a witness... Seems there's been a bit of a + anomaly with that standing wave cloud materialization phenomenon going on this early spring. We had nape sun earlier but have since denigrated the skies to a virga blizzard with blotches of dark exploded CU ...corpuscular rays blasting out around the edges as they made sure to eclipse any hope of penetrating sun. Nothing reaching the ground of course... Reminds me of that first winter like cold snap in mid November you get. Maybe if your lucky while raking you'll see a single flurry flake catch the corner of your eye.

Perhaps lol. well.. .not lol but yeah. anyway, I was being a little tongue in cheek just based upon that GFS run showing an anomalous deep troposphere ridge over the eastern mid latitude continent, in a pretty ideal spatial layout. It's way out there in time though... so not much predictive skill. I will say though, the operational model runs are all vastly colder than the indexes suggest they really should be. But when they are all doing it, it makes it harder to argue against just the same. So not sure what to do in the interim. We may have to deal with IP bombs going off under 570 dm heights, I guess. For f-sake can these models admit to seasonal change already?

My April heat burst is showing up

Doubt it. It'll all devolve into a series of BD bum bangin' warm enthusiasts frustration, at about a 36 hour RPM rate

hmm yeah

It's a good thing the season opener series is in Cinnci, huh

Yeah ... I guess. It is about as objectively/meteorologically impressive, as it is becoming methodically apoplectic to bear witness too.

Of course... Processes and forcing et al are still identifiable. But one would not be correct if they believed there is nothing observably different - in other words, these correlation failures is/are an emerging over time (on setting) aspect. There would be no need for RONI if that were not the case - just one example. The HC is expanding though (... get Ray going on that, he loves it! hahaha ). I'd also be a little leery in using that SST layout and "blaming" NINA outright. It seems pretty clear that the PDO is being augmented by a longer term pacific warm anomaly that's been meandering between the west and east Basin now for years actually - though it's been pretty packed toward Japan more recently. Not sure what the status is while typing this tl/dr paragraph but it is what it is. The mid latitudes are perhaps sucking in and stowing heat - which if we consider the fact that the Earth's oceans have actually absorbed ~90% of the total GW quotient since the turn of the IR ...that seems intuitive if not academically an echo of a longer term state.

pretty close... It was more like a, "besides ... befitting the La Nina" not hurting the idea. It's possible that it was entirely La Nina driven, and it was just a 3 or 4 month window where the distractions let it alone. interesting. You know (change the subject) I did this cursory research into warm springs long ago. I found that some statistical significance between late stage La Nina's and big spring warmth. I didn't look at it regionally, just at a N/A continental scale. 1976 April heat was truly awesome particularly in NE. MA/S NH and S ME... It was 96 with upper 80s and low 90s for three days before and prior to a big heat day - one entire week's worth. Dr Colby and I dorked it out for an hour and went through the rest of the spring's data recordings from the Lab's station. We were xpecting to happen upon a tongue-n-cheeker snow event in early May that year but nope. It stayed in the glorious 70s to 80s right through. So in 1998 we were coming off a super +ENSO and we had the 89/90/91 heat burst, Mar 29/30/31... So it's not a lock out correlation or anything either. But, that was a single pattern event - the former effort was more seasonal in time scale. I did find some correlation there. Out of deference to no believing the index methods are completely obsolete ( probably 2070s lol) last fall, I went ahead and thought shit... after the early loading, lets go 2012 on their asses. So I rib-poked a "flowery February" deviant attempting to trigger winter enthusiasts... I was never confident though.

heh. Just in an op ed mood this morning Yeah, so I wouldn't tell anyone not to try. That's would be, in a word, stupid. One has to try... for one, if the process brings them joy, you only live once. Rock on. Plus, NOT trying at all? That would greatly reduce one's success rate in discovery, huh. LOL. The deeper take away there is that the foundations upon which long range prognostics were always based upon are clearly cracked. Perhaps crumbling... There has to be more in the way of original insight. As I mentioned, a fall back approach has been working rather well ... ish. Trying to asses the continuation vs collapse of 6-month persistence. You know, I almost nailed this winter. I fucked up the February thing but... my feelings were not hurt by that. I was much more confident in early cold/blocking, and I didn't use anything other than noticing aspect of late summer and autumn and pushing those forward. None of which was ENSO this or snow in the arctic that, or solar cycles ...or blah blah-blah. Is it reproducible? not saying that either. As far as the ego stuff... I've just had to throw hands. Years and years ago, when I started seeing ENSO's statistically decoupling around the world, I was ignored. But then some independent whatever comes up with RONI; yet no credit is conferred. So you know ... it's like a fuggit thing. Don't care anymore. We can know, and no one knows we know and that's just the way it goes. You are either chosen, or be loudly unspoken. Whatever god runs this show can go fuck itself. LOL

Faux -PDO's due to relative +PDO anomalies this RONI that Overall Telecon instability --> chaos/reduction in longer term predictive skill, coherent and undeniable It's a bit of a philosophical reasoning but there appears to be a realism emerging where traditional indexes are becoming gradually less usable. Ultimately perhaps meaningless as the climate air, land, sea, or combinatory thereof, proves to be steeply in delta - and it appears to be closely correlated. The greater the d(C) in time, the > the index-correlation collapse... manifested as variability that cannot be predetermined based upon known sciences. Definitely not modeling...jesus. From all that, it's getting harder, even for the harder headed types, to ignore. Stop wasting our time using them to predict seasonal modes of behavior. For none of that former starkly realistic plight lends to success being more than a blind squirrel upon a nut. We can kick and scream and get mad at the messenger here, or ... we can demonstrate a matured higher reasoning capacity that seeks truth, while being disconnected from ego. There may be more use in the permuted versions... like RONI and so forth. However, the boundaries of even those are changing. That makes them suss unfortunately. Personally I'm seeing ... perhaps "sensing" is a better word, more success in just using large hemispheric 6-monthly trends, and then getting a sense of their likeliness to continuing, or decay, based upon those total/orbital observations. It's been cold despite warm this or cold that (vice versa anomalistic result): any reason that should stop? Nope. Continue. Yup, new paradigm, break out the dice. Ha, as a wild digression ... this sort of reminds me of that new Quantum Field idea about aspects of deeper sentience at that fundamental layer where precedes the present mindful awareness, are not being constrained by time; when we have "gut feelings", those are the future transmitting backward. It's not a bad idea when matching that with anecdotal. Like someone falls off a ladder and bonks their head. As they come around they have a memory of actually finishing their descent down the latter, without it being assisted by 9.8 m/s2. There's a version of the future transmitting back, but it gets interceded along the way... I get this gut feelings that the indexes as originally conceived out of a statistic framework, won't work in the future generations - probably, this is beginning now, too. They'll be extinct eventually.

It's amazing to wonder what this global ATM 2-meter T curve would look like if SE Canada and NE's numbers were removed from the average -

Seems they're fighting seasonal change, huh I've seen something like this every spring around this time frankly going back years. It would be an interesting discussion to have with the modelers at NCEP...but it seems as though their physics are not integrating for steadily increasing heat input into the system. They just take whatever they see in the initialization, and then out in time they end up too cold So by the time we get to mid April the sun is like mid August. Hot as hell on sunny days. Sometime between now and 2.5 weeks .. I mean give it up. Only once or twice do I recall an air mass cold enough to offset that, way back prior to 2000 ... and these patterns in the current model depictions ain't it.

You can even see it doing it over the top of Kevin's house in CT... It'll probably dry out some but just sayn' a-nnoying

It's the na na na-na na cloud line affect