Typhoon Tip

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace. Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes; the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock. personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?

yup, Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream.

Euro ridge more eclipsing the WC and we see some improvements aloft ( 500 mb evolution) downstream. Not sure where this is going but at 156 this is a better set up for the mid monther heh, wrong thread -

It all evades the real pertinent question for me... why do posters reference those out side this medium like that. Doing so usually couched in a some opinionated bio over how awesome they are Maybe just because of what Brian said? When reality provides a lower dopa potency, people hump delusions of grandeur for their high haha

and it works on a post-modern population's "highly analytical/objective" perception and subsequent court of public opinion, too.

Yeah it's all conservation of momentum and wave mechanics. With a stouter ridge around 110 W ( say ...), the azimuth of the diving S/W is steeper, and that also constructively feedsback on the total amplitude as the L/W and S/W mechanics are in sync so in short, strong S/W ... to which negative tilting is a part of that characteristic

Why do we keep referencing other people that do not appear to be a member and/or contributor in here ? not sure what the purpose of that is for. are we supposed be oohing and in awe of their content? or are we supposed to be impressed that you know this person

As influential posters it is probably equally annoying for us to swing between tones of optimism and then despair, inside the same hour LOL buuut... Re the GFS operational. I do like the position of the western ridge better in this run than the previous. Previous left ... new position right That S/E repositioning may seem subtle but it is crucially important/sensitive in how the wave spacing behaves wrt S/Ws ejected down stream. The subtly more compressed isohypses along the Rockies S flow on the right is also an homage to attempting a ridge farther S/E. You don't ( as winter even enthusiasts ..) want to see the left variant of the +PNA. ... As much. I mean I'm sure in the last 3,000,000 years of eastern N/A there's been event with the left version... but excluding the rarefied scenarios. Anyway, bump that a little more and it would be better.

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

the 0Z operation Euro and both 0 and 6Z GFS operational runs abandoned the more distant -EPO we were discussing - which was always contingent upon the entire technological ens ambit actually not being full of shit. I dunno. Christ Figure for them being right with all that weight but with doling out of uncertainties seemingly at an all time embarrassment of riches maybe is all a red herring - starting to dream of Feb 8th’s annual solar hole escape date … Just issue fatigue talking … Anyway, just thought I’d point out that oddity about the op versions.

It's kind of hilarious to be defaulting to a thaw when looking at a +PNA crawling up into a -EPO look. It's times like these I wonder ... when/if the pattern actually flips warm, what the f will that entail.

So enabling for deniers... ... particularly, deniers all carry one particular almost necessary trait in order to be denying, and that's the inability ( perhaps a psychological limitation/aptitude - ) to simultaneously be aware of what they are looking at, with respect to keeping the big picture in mind. Their processing disconnects those two, and of course when limited by that state of awareness...that defaults their reason preferentially to just what is perceivable via their personal senses - in the construction/impression of reality. This is a long winded to way of describing the 'pin-head' nimrod with head up fucking asshole. In this case above, the cold over N/A is just perfect to jam head deep up myopic butt holes, and claim that is the reality. I think it is uneven evolution. I think there is a gene, a very necessary one ... for contemplation and objective reasoning that includes a broader dimension that what is merely available via the biologic sight and sound. If people don't have this, they are prone to denial - in anything. The rest is just immoral douchery... ( the preceding is tongue-in-cheek cynicism that somehow smacks as having some real value )

clearly colder solution comparing the prior 4 cycles ... 66 to 72 hours is going over to snow in the pretty cinema ... almost down to the pike. there's been steadily more commitment to a secondary, albeit weak.

Heh... W. Europe actually positively correlates to eastern N/A in classic climatology. That may be changing based on everything over the last 20 years ..But the Alaska thing is true. The reason for these is just typical wave number spacing. When there is a trough in Alaska, there tends to be a ridge down stream. And vice versa... That all said, there's not really a silver bullet - I realize the idea of when in Rome is just to make conversation point. Still, we can't just signal some aspect and assume that's what's going on in a vacuum. Case in point, with a month's worth of oscillation between -WPO and -EPO...that implies sharing time/space in a ridge state over Alaska, yet they're snowy - so something else is playing around with it.

The MJO isn't triggering? - just pointing this out in general... The MJO has a constructive vs destructive large scale interference requirement with respect to the super synoptics ongoing in the hemisphere. As an example of this, the N. Pac thing last month ... That was overwhelmingly a negative interference conflict at large planetary scales. The Pacific just suppressed the wave from propagating E. So to your point, if the wave happens to be in constructive interference then it certainly will add/help modulate the ongoing synoptic foot

This sort of hearkens back to the comments I made a month or so ago. There's a pretty clear leitmotif over recent decade(s) that basically boils down to this statement: The atmosphere can't seem to sustain cold without shearing disruption and/or negative interference. When ever it relaxes ... the bounce backs tend to be too warm. There's no attempt at subversion of CC into this idea ... it is what it is whether that's a part, or not. Anyway, even if that's just 40 ... 30% increased in circumstances, that's a pretty big chunk of standard frequency storm numbers lost to discord, which then means over the longer haul our probabilities are weighting down.

ah.. sorry. I zone out usually after dark - unless there's something really going on

Kind of with Scott on the mid monther ... for the time being, anyway. I'm open to changes at 7+ days of course, but ugly overnight. I didn't like 00z GEFs or the EPS regarding that period. They were not representative of a type of system we'd expect to see emerging - better hints in prior cycles have regressed to ...something else. This is all given to the blah blah PNA gobble-dee goop. Both look like some kind of polar boundary with maybe a clipper on it? not very clear what that is... but the passage is NW-SE and not including much of any coherency to a coastal. Basically unremarkable with what they do illustrate. Meanwhile, the operational GFS' 0z and slightly less so, 06z kind of does, but they just look weird. So does the GGEM...

Hi launch pad this morning, relative to season

Interesting changes and this 0ZNAM Unfortunately, it’s in that 72+ hour range …NAM is not very good but it’s definitely a colder solution

Lol Jesus guys…let it marinate a little bit

Looking more and more like the Miami rule's behaving for the 15th but it's the western ridge that's that's a problem. Too far W ... It's sort causing the trough components to dangle through the Lake/OV instead of digging. So we end up with the b-c axis with paltry wave running up along it instead of the bigger woofer. It may actually work out that way - which would probably drive winter storm enthusiasts to something barely restraining apoplexy ... haha. I mean with all do empathy ... you may never see 6" of wind whipping NEster again, huh That PNA ridge was biased west much of last winter. interesting anyway.

Trick in that solution will be whether there's a pulse of sufficiently low enough DPs loading into NYS-VT-NH ... even if we can get that down to say ALB-EEN-MHT that may be close enough. There's a front coming through around 00z Saturday and between 3- 9Z overnight there's CAA albeit not aggressive. I wouldn't normally comment on a marginal set up like that for ZR, just because it's a fragile set up and it's got 60 to 72 hours to go... however, there's a distinct rising PP across upstate NY-ME and it's nosing around the terrain and bowing the isobars into a dammed look...That means like today, a sneaky ageo flow is susceptible of getting going - if/when coming out of even a -1C DP source that's good for ice at least down to the border towns. edit I see NAM cute pink paint is indeed into interior even down here. CNE obviously higher odds