Typhoon Tip

Been noticing that the coldest 500 mb height anomalies ( relative to normals...) have been persistently over our side of the hemisphere this late autumn. I'm curious what those global monthly temperature anomalies (from NASA and NOAA) look like ... the color encoded versions. I have a feeling we have a "CC denial-enabling" (little sarcasm there..) deepest blue plume that's been biasing North America. At present, the tracking at Climate Reanalyzer's site has 2025 flirting with the 3rd warmest per date. 3 days ago ... it 2025 was #1 per date. The curve's been meandering up and down within the top 5 - in principle, we're still turning the heat up on the frogs. So, in order for cryo to be advancing during that it's probable that N/A wins the cold trophy for this late autumn and (so far) front loading winter period.

I think there’s too much volatility in either direction to really justify grousing or celebrating. It’s just a complete coin flip I tell you one thing there’s a numerical bounce in the PNA index between 6-7-8. Typically that’s a good place to nest an event. Yet the operational versions are backing off … keeping the only identifiable wave ejected across the continent too flat and weak. The operational runs don’t want to play along with what their respective ensemble derivatives are telling them they should be. And they are all in disconnect: Euro, Canadian and American clusters It’s one of those situations where something could come back in that period and you wouldn’t necessarily suspect it having given up. We were watching something out around the 10th, but it seems to have gotten pushed out to the 12th and now that one’s gone too. Meanwhile, the ensemble means have the coldest 500mb anomaly, relative to normal, anywhere in the northern hemisphere over Southeast Canada between day 10 and 2 weeks. The operational runs being in this negative interference damping orgy strikes me as pure artifact for trying to handle such a fast changeable synaptic circumstance. The short version? There could very well be a couple of events between now and Christmas but no dopamine for you until further notice. Lol.

when the low gets abeam of those longituds/S of where you describe, the wind may back more abruptly N and accelerate modestly, flooding 28 to 30 F air S-E. Flash freezing is distinct possibility and should be highlighted

S- VIS EST 1 M 28/25 LIGHT NNE W ACC 2.25"

Fwiw ...the last 1/2 hour we went from no wind/dead calm to a NNE motion. Ageo may be an issue in the headache spectrum

Looking more event-worthy this hour ... 27/24 Vis est .5 m No wind; straight down fall Aggregates uniform and small/mid. <=1" acc

I did ... or proposed the band of ZR idea, yesterday. Not surprising for me. It's a 'reasonable' sort of compromise on insisting a 20F DP event-entrance air mass clung to the surface being perhaps too quickly phase changed to straight rain by the models. 1200' to sfc doesn't modulate that fast with flow rates less than 22kts at the boundary pause ( the level where surface drag finally fades to free air/laminar motion). That's an old index finger rule velocity for scouring out dammed air.

aggregate size has decreased considerably. Small and uniform. Cold snow type. Vis ~ 1.5 m 27/23

Steady uniform mid-sized aggregates coming down. For the moment at least ... flawless Christmas seasonal homage. Real Courier&Ives and Normal Rockwellian looking snowflakes. 26

are you still in econ/finance ? just curious. I had some deaths in the family recently. Grief has a way of rewiring the mind. Everywhere I look I only see futility. Nothing matters ... for in the end, must all be swallowed up in the cosmos' ultimate intent to end everything" type of a delicious hell to find motivation anymore. Rambling a bit but I just wonder if we're all wasting our time leaving our passions on the field of life.

You and Ray did you move recently? I thought you were NW of there - why would you of all people move to that warm caldron lower elevation. lol

I like these HRRR recent returns. They seem to compromise between interior cold wall resistance, versus the erosion of lacking +PP situated N. I'm good with a compromise, because it shows at least that the models f'n can see that it's 27/19 in Sutton ( for ex.)

I added to that....in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

It's starting to slowly penetrate my dense skull. If this system was encountering a better +PP N of the region, its affects might not be felt this far N, anyway. Kind of a trade off. The system is ultimately not very significant in the tropospheric wave space. It's positively tilted, and partially absorbed into the background fast progressive/velocitysoaked circulation type. Also, as Will commiserated recently, we're lacking that higher pressure pattern situated N. These fast flow types make static +PP over-topping harder to come by, because the confluent structures break down to quickly and transition away. It's been plaguing our winters for a few years ... this fast shit. It's annoying. But there's a reason for it, and the resulting less high pressure situated N while storm systems move into and/or under our latitude, has become the leitmotif - frustrating for pure snow enthusiasts because the consequence means enter warming implications here [ hint, add today ]. That said, this system is middling and subtly trended less. If there were more high pressure N, I'm starting to see that the meaningful impact may have ended up more suppressed, perhaps too much so to have even risen this thread to 50+ pages. Having said all that...in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race. The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

I actually like this depiction for this ... I mentioned yesterday to Henry that I though roughly White Plains-Hartford-Worcester-Portsmouth was going to be hard to penetrate warmth beyond that axis. I've also been scratching my head as to what I feel were bloated modeled QPF numbers. The 06z NAM has abruptly corrected down and is just 1/3 of the previous modeled totals at Logan... while the Euro has been moving the system so damn fast - in fact ..that's the theme with this all along. Real quick hitter. This is a candidate to both be marginally colder than the consensus, while also ... a bit lighter as a total result.

I just intimated similarly.. It's not clear to me how the models punch such warm BL air so far inland as they are, given to the fact that as the low moves (quickly so ..which should even help conserve cold) by to the S, wind from the surface up will will necessarily back around - not continue a WAA assault. It just looks to me like the set of environmental variables that are responsible for managing the BL effects were like inadvertently not turned on or set into winter seasonal mode in the models or something. Ha ha. That's sci fi for fun.

Some of those OE band elements moving N from the south coast made it this far N and clipped by... Just a feather dusting. But it's neat looking on the road surface; every single flake particle was preserved. Zero lost to melt. The whole road is polka-dotted with white stamps. 26/18 as we sit in wait to see how a storm moving underneath our SNE latitude, can somehow warm this far N-W. It's a head scratcher but one would think that is an error. I just noticed that the 00z GGEM actually pinned the mix line nearby me more so than the other guidance, and the 06z GFS seemed to at least try to keep the mix line just SE of my area by a narrow escape. So we'll see...

yeah that was mostly one Met talking to another. It's clear outside, with a DPs regionally 10 to 19. We're likely getting quite cold in the lowest levels because of that. That's possibly not being assessed properly wherein the poorly resolved lowest levels that the models can have trouble. It's not a slam dunk for a positive bust, but this strikes me as a potential to end up marginally colder - particularly with the storm structurally evolving and moving underneath our latitude. I'm not sure where you reside but for like Springfield to Ayer ...that band I suspect it safely snow in this... It's really more of a contention as to where the mix line ends up... I think there's room for it to be S of consensus in this case.

agreed here. I discussed this several hours ago ... "The cyclone is going S. I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth over top - appears to stay open. Yet the 850 does closes S of RI. I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late. Not enough to call bull crap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am... we're likely to get decent rad cooling production. We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness. I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance. " add to that... Dec 23 1997 was a different total scenario, but the timing with "cold capping" over a teens dp air contributed to one of the finest bust we've ever known - possibly the GOAT.

did anyone notice how i used a black snowflake there ... ha?

Perfect!

Doesn't he even live right in the middle of that gray na na na-na na rub-it-in region ?

Yep... was just coming in to dial up the d-drip haha

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too. Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

I know what you mean ... I don't mean to sound condescending/boomer-ish but, I think that relative to your age they've been less occurring. I remember several in the 1980s and 1990s. They're just not as common anymore - gee wonder why ... They're also no a big deal. If treatment is applied to the walkways and roads they're reduced to a non-story. Problems is, the latter seldom was in time.