Typhoon Tip

oh..heh... just realized no one's in here. Geez, better go make sure the Iran-Russian-China axis didn't smuggle a nuke up the Potomac

I wonder if these low wind open sky lasing days over the nearby ocean will elevate the SSTs some

Heh...it's rare to do this once with near/at 0% coverage, but this is the 2nd day, back-to-back, that sat presented this at a regional scale

Looks like the GFS is still just going to ruin Sunday even if it is fed the necessary grid data that would not ruin Sunday lol. The Euro and CMC salvage that day with a cleaner fropa - though couldn't rule out terrain enhanced CB dappled around. As Jerry and I were discussing yesterday, the cold push behind that boundary isn't nearly as impressive. Weak as modeled, taking us back to seasonal as opposed to that 48 F shit. Regardless of the GFS' beady-eyed OCD agenda to destroy mirth on weekend days ... it's own MEX machine numbers are still near 80 from BDL-FIT to ASH-MHT, fwiw We probably have finally graduated to 2026's summer. We'll see what it has in store... After a possible run in with renewed heat middle of next week, there may either be a transient seasonal cool down.. or possibly we evolve a quasi Bahama Blue pattern.

48 was lower than I imagined we would be last night. huh. Considering machine numbers tickle the chode hairs of 90, a 40+ is gonna challenge some delta records for the date.

good line of higher CAPEed convection 21z on Saturday outta do the trick.

Yeah... it's the yellow shit. I think that's pine ?

Anyone that's under a CB negative CAPE is probably getting a 1/2" or more in 20 minutes, tho. Regionally? doesn't look like a soaker for now but there's a couple days

ha... no one is "using" anything. understood - that's not the purpose of the post.

Toasty Euro run

Or at least if/when there are post BDs or N-door boundaries regionally we're going back to 72s instead of 49s yup.

rare satellite image

ICONoclastic model's settin up a blistering heat wave June 9-10-11 ... just like the original non-linear telecon signal had from last week. This is the 12z next Wed ... notice 570+dm with lee side trough? this is 90+ incoming

plus...dogs deliberately seek out and dive slide through garbage ...like dirty diaper and moldy mack and cheese mixed with cigar ash dumpster phage ...

Op ed. I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh. But what's ironic is that there are fantastic summer events to track - this is after all a weather-related forum ( yeah...right). The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. To that I would suggest the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting. But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well. We've had slow summers. Sure. This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, but we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer. More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter. Although lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic. I guess partly I'm driving at the notion that something else is motivating there. This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen. To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness. Okay. To each is his or her own. One's preference is one's preference. And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens. Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf. None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason. But at least it's dark by 4pm

wtf... Firing Pelley from 60-Minutes is like dynamiting the face of Lincoln off the Rushmore of news journalism. CBS? no shit - You know, this, coming so soon after the Colbert debacle. And that bullshit with Trump instructing them a couple years ago and they all but happily obliged. All of which stinks to high heaven of an organization where you 'say what we want you to say else we'll fascistly wield our will' In an idealistic vision, civility en masse boycotts anything that has CBS finger prints anywhere around it or on it, and points their TV and devices toward different antennas. Let CBS' valuations deteriorate right before the kuntitudinal eyes of the organization's leader. It just folds. That's a flux of unemployment I would be just tickled pink in joy knowing was happening. Then, set some other news/entertainment organization journalism on an ongoing investigation into the lives of all those upper management and exec ranked assholes, showcasing their travails in trying to find a toe-hold on anything in a society that knows what they're really about. Welcome to the deserved sewer of society you pieces of shit.

Heh... reminds me of that meme years ago. Very large aquarium wall, 4" of transparent aluminum glass on the other side of which this giant fluffy polar bear yawns and lazily slides off some prop for rocks and submerges itself in water sloshing like a fat kid in a bath tub. The crowd of 4 to 8 year old onlookers together with their skyscraper moms and dads are in unison, oohs and ah chorus at this specter... Just then, the bear's paddling front feet make it look deliberate as it rotated it's equally giant ass axis pointed directly down the collective line of sight of said crowd, whereby it proceeded to all but instantly transform the clarity of the water into this putrid colored anal pall. Beige ass vomit burst forth like that blow out scene in the film "Deep Horizon"... looked remarkably similar in color to that image above. The chorus of ooh and ahs resolved the note of their song in something like ewes and oophs. Put that in your children's book. Welcome to nature, kid -

dunno. I'd a just deferred to AI on that one. Asked it to remove feces smear and re-render it before going for splendor in social media

If it were not for that plume of ass sludge out of a sewage pipe failure out there it's real cradle of life -

This summer looks like it's trying to be 75 or 78F but either way

GFS is fighting warmth like it does ever spring and early summer. This recent series' of runs' technique was to pinch off the bottom the exiting trough into all of a 576 dm height low and act like that's sufficient to drive near gale east chilly flow into the M/A and commensurately destroying the sensible weather up and down the EC all next week. It's been showing all kinds of continuity issues with that scenario tho. 18z yesterday it pinched off almost no planetary scaled turd. Yet a coffee break in model time later it goes and stinks up the whole works with this bs at 00z. We'll see. Both the Euro, CMC and the ensembles of all three, EPS,GEPS and GEFs are less with that ordeal. The only thing going for the GFS typical fuck it up for everyone by inventing physical math is that gee ... this spring has seemed to succeed at doing that anyway. Actually in fairness the 06z GFS was less shitty looking. But therein is an example of continuity issues. I tend to think the GFS is over sensitive to curvature in the flow. In both directions - perhaps an emergent property if not error of it's 'physical machinery'. It seems to conserve too much when troughs are lifting out, and does these nip and tuck jobs too often. On the other end, it ablates the latitude of ridges by fire-hosing polar jet velocities over top of the curvature like a stump grinder. It's subtle with this overall, but it's just enough to be annoying and one cannot unsee it once they get a sense of it happening with this model.

that would be a fascinating look on the 00z operational Euro if it were not 340 hours out ... quasi Bahama Blue pattern with a TC rollin' up inside the conveyor.

From the looks of upstream tomorrow's fucked too. Mostly cloudy and mild weee I dunno. Maybe the shit streak finally succumbs to DVM lol

here it is...300 mb