Typhoon Tip

Right!

I don't disagree with Scott's observations there; spoke similarly about the unusually rich volatile instability there being "too much of a good thing" yesterday I'll just add that the convection it's self is racing away along the streamlines out there. We're lacking a lot of more typical curvature response to the convection exhaust in the escape orientation of the isohypses. If we had that normalcy in place it would probably help contain and low further W and other feedbacks ... it's just idiosyncratic about this particular event to be missing that. I think the speed of the flow is outpacing that response mechanism's ability to do so.

I spent a whole sermon on this a couple hours ago and of course no one read it ( I don't learn apparently ) but yeah, there's a signal there. However, just like the shenanigans in the models leading up to this ordeal on Sunday, this next one may suffer the same frustrations. so,... it may have legs, but their not the Conan The Barbarian type of legs... They're like the kid with polio waddling around with the help of his arm crutches

daylight adds energy ... the whole conversation is rube-ish

Yeah ... I see more of the same shit propensity continuing, unfortunately. In the objective sense, of course there are 'chances'. I think however we're in troubling trends endemic to this season (probably longer ) I don't see how that's stopping enough to make said chances very good. Scott touched on one of the reason in the compendium of whys, the -NAO needs to be considered as an indication for track behavior as well as possible damping effects (damping in this context is when upstream systems are forced weaker as they come east) But above and beyond that there is this back ground tendency of emerging noise, noise that turns out to be real. Moreover and most importantly, noise that is unknowable at longer leads. It's just simply not being seen very well by the physical processing of guidance out in time these days. Some of that is normal... Chaos/entropy, it gathers out in time in these complex systems of positive and negative synergies. Fine. However, there appears to be more of it than the normal quotient expectation. Speed in the atmosphere manifests in 3 ways: 1, the general winds around all features are faster than normal; 2, the S/W that are born within that maelstrom will inherit the wind and thus via wave physics be faster moving - this is also always been inherently a problem for guidance with fast progressive flow; 3, the rate of emergence and decay et al, these 2ndary and tertiary events .. come into and out of existence faster. All these aspects can be tied together via the Navier-Stokes mathematics. This aspect blindly doomed the current system moving off the SE Coast out into the Atlantic on Sunday. Compared to the guidance portrayal earlier on... 6 or so days ago when this "threat" on the EC was elaborated by the models, this encircled annotation above was retard back upstream, not nearly as coherently influencing matters...in fact, it really was not there... But it has evolved faster as a complete deep trough-ridge couplet up there ... en masse, moving ESE into the domain space of this whopper you see pushed/forced ENE ... I think Brian was mentioning this yesterday. And all this interference crap still fits unfortunately safely inside this type impressive +PNA mode we're in... Anyway, long of the short ... I don't see that model performance is going to be very good moving forward. As in, worse than normal.

Ah... there's multiple reasons why this thing's behaving the way it is in the guidance - not one silver bullet. Having a S/W cresting the western ridge, doing so at a fast rate of speed is giving this thing on the east coast an non-linear negative interference ... ( transitive destructive - ). Some of this is going on, but not the whole story. What Brian was discussing certainly contributes, too. Then there's the convection. It occurs to me that there is an anomalously intense B-C axis in that vicinity down there. There really has to be, when there's been days of -3 SD air mass near-by a hotter than normal SW Atlantic OHE for the past 10 years. Ha. I mean Jesus... the convective potential is so extreme - if that metric were kept track of, it's probably historically volatile. Really, the expression "too much of a good thing" keeps hittin' at me. You can't exceed a threshold of potential in convection. Have you ever heard of the "K Index"? It's number that describes the general convective response once trigger has taken place. For example... in the Plains, a low K index with a very high CAPE and CIN collapse produces low counts of CB but huge super cells. If the K Index is high... the whole region erupts all at once and kills the organized super cells... etc. Something similar - this is where it's supposition but the more I look at this I suspect it to be so ... - is taking place where there is a high potential for convective response, with no inhibition... The whole region is igniting pretty far ahead of the trough... and there is so much potential due to the extremes of air mass over hot water ( relatively speaking) that the convective processing is blowing a hole in the troposphere and creating a new closed 500 surface out ahead of the real tough. That's why we are seeing this shit.. If you follow this 84 hour NAM chart back in time, you can see how the convection is evolving it's own S/W presence and then taking over... It's like a Miller B at 500 mb level.

Man... I don't know where y'all find the patience to carry on with this one.. If this was a gf I'd-a done told the bitch to get the fuck out two days ago.

yet another way to metaphor it, we got *!@#ed in the ass

I never had a problem with this winter ..even before this last bigger snow producer. I just figured it for over-achieving on cold alone- I realize the demarcation is based upon snow fall, but that's endemic to these individuals and collective psychology amid this very niche' social media. We had early blocking ... we had snow threats. Some minor ones panned out. But a bigger event eventually transpiring was a parlay when we had/have a cold biased winter pattern persisting the way we did. Notice also ...we didn't get a bigger deal event until after the N. Pacific corruptive variant of the -WPO plaguing Dec was finally fully vanquished. That was a toxic relationship with that giant narcissistic block, LOL. Anyway, we got back to episodic -EPO bursts and allowed the Pacific to undercut for a coffee break and we get a STJ drive snow bomb out of it. Anyway, even if we didn't get this 15 to 20 incher, we probably would have ended up near normal by the end off 2-3" buck shot adding up over the long haul. So there... normal snow in a cold winter. The problem is... that psychology ^ ... people tend to judge the winters based on weather that they get that psychology masturbated or not. So that's really a different discussion entirely..

I wonder if this can be ironed out if that relays weaker up there ... LOL, frankly I've grown weary and tired of even looking at this motherfucker

I actually agree with this sentiment ...wrt to just this 12z run, sure - The system's close 531 dm actually encases the whole region with some E component at that 500 mb initiated. The QPF paint on the actual surface chart looks dubiously broken apart. This is a very large system. It's possible in fact probable that the there'll be an extended quasi CCB arc out farther than the typical size one may be used to seeing. I mean I'm not trying to gaslight anyone into thinking but this arc could be more formed than what we are seeing here - if having the visual example helps ...

Mathematically ... the speed of the flow is absolutely a part and crucial part at that, in the Navier-Stokes momentum of fluid system equations, to which these models are physically responsible for. Propagating a wave through that medium is effected - There may also be other factors involved; I'll just add that I've seen 500 mb progression of Feb 5 1978, and the block decaying was observed as collapsing S - it was in fact what triggers the N/stream to fall S/ subsume scenario. But maybe I don't know what you mean?

I don't know what everyone's written overnight but this is gonna have to be a positive bust at this point. Otherwise it's a saga about a signal verifying, a storm resulting, and we (winter enthusiasts) get porked. Done deal. It just is what it is... It's still odd that the whole bundle/wave space is taking such a parabolic motion and won't obey ( apparently) convention, but .. these things don't always fit into the text book in this business. Anomalies, relative to (as in within) ongoing anomalies, due also happen. There's a logic to it ..it may need reanalysis and whatever to suss that out but ... I would still strongly suggest that the background speed soaked flow is playing around with and stressing standard models into behaving in odd ways.

I doubt that low pressure bouncy ball mess off the southeast coast is legit with the NAM

Looks like switching from positive PNAP to more of an overrunning risk spectrum

Funny at the gym I was considering the Boxing Day Storm and how 48 hrs prior that system had been all but entirely smashed SE off the charts… I think it might have been the NAM that made significant surge from the dead … Of course doubts were going on in here like a whiteout Then one by one … 300 mi yanks out of the grave … every cycle going forward off all guidance. The whole thing waited until there was literally zero hope. Ha ha ha ha Anyway, wasn’t the boxing day pretty high in the list of analogs the other day? It would be kind of fitting if this one came back, although doing it from day four is probably not quite the same scenario

So am I to understand from this that the entire euro system shifted west…like en masse?

This had a hook and latter vibe to it early on too… Sort of got lost, but we may have to go back through that phase of stuff before this ultimately becomes a real deal. Looking ladder storms do happen though.

Funny yeah, that’s where the low really should be… I think some of these recent upgrades in the models at all our hypersensitive to convection maybe. Just a thought. Coupling that with a speed flow contaminated atmosphere that’s never gonna integrate well with a low that’s trying to close off and structure itself vertically.

Scott's just tuggin' on minion chode hairs with that. We're in the solar minimum for another 2 weeks. The sharding back of snow banks will begin in earnest after the 8th ..10th. Having said that, there was day light at 5:30 pm today ...I noticed this as I was leaving the gym. That was pitch dark just last week at that same time. We're on the slope - can't be denied. I also thought the sun coming through the S windows felt warmer on the face. It's just a fact of celestial mechanics and life.

welp ... that's taking an anomalous track relative to the larger scale synoptic structure(s) ... but, sometimes weird shit happens. I think the background speed of the flow is a problem. It gets harder to excuse the increasing numbers of these observed idiosyncratic behaviors as just 'bad luck' - luck is really when you don't why something is happening but it does, unexpectedly. I no longer sense this as occurring for no detectable reason, nor see this as unexpected. I keep seeing these events in the late mid and extended range and watching them torpedo as they come into shorter terms. I also suspect this is why we see this attenuation of event profiles during that same relay..it's because organized structures at smaller scales are getting speed stressed. It's no death knell. At some point something will subsume phase, but of all event types there are, subsumers being being the most time-dependent fragile ... there's a reason why we haven't seen subsume types. The odds of those types succeeding has gone down.

man..hahahaha just saw the Euro surface i mean to successfully tease every coast from PWM down to the Va Capes like that 96 hour frame, simultaneously, some 800 miles in one contiguous arc of 'imagine if that was onshore' is really quite an achievement. how the hell did they do that -

oh, it's a failed phase... absolutely that's what that is... What we've been collectively looking at in the runs for the past few days. Seems this was not taking place when these were prior to 2 days ago, but has since... so be it. It's a stream bi-pass... why that is...? Not entirely certain but it looks like the U component of the navier stokes is too fast for the total wave unification to take form/merge... that's the mathematics in how speed fucks up a phase. It's what this looks like - doesn't have to be the final solution. just sayn'

this is the problem with the Euro run ...this is the 96 hour. Go back and trace that through from 84 ..you can see it's spontaneously emerged out of the convection field fanning hugely in advance of the whole trough. so...it may not be real. it may be real. who knows...but that's your problem with this

Well...firstly and foremost that was a tongue-in-cheeking worded for the long of dirty dialogue. Buuuut so long as we're on the subject, like all humor their is point to be had buried in the muse ... The fast atmosphere is screwing things up, and the fast atmosphere ... plaguing seasons most always as a baseline problem in recent decadal time scale(s), is definitely physically connect to a warming planet. That's already been science/papered by several source - although, others in here with open minds and curious speculation, did surmise something was wrong and began posting about it, years and years ago See, there are two ways heat in the atmosphere exists. Human common experience only directly samples how the temperature feel on their actual skin, or makes them feel. Unfortunately for CC, most of it ( so far...) does not appeal that form. Most of CC is absorbed into the background environment .. it does really raise the temperature until there has been 2ndary and tertiary different systemic processes. One of which is the expansion of warm heights ...which then means extremer gradients during winter/seasonal cooling from higher latitudes on down... The Earth becomes like an engine... But instead of converting combustion energy into motion energy, it converts potential energy to motion via the thermal wind component being larger when there is larger gradient. That then bends by coriolis ... and that becomes the base-line geopotential wind velocity. See...not many people know any of this exists in reality. 99% of people don't. And of those that remain... about 10% even get it intuitively That's really the human and humanities biggest problem ... the truth is owned by a tiny fraction of everyone, who benefit off their discoveries ... perhaps irresponsibly for not knowing what's behind it all. But everyone is now using these innovations that have toxic effects on the environment. Small imbalance there, huh. But I'm wildly digressing... anyway, the speeding atmosphere is connected to CC.