Typhoon Tip

wow ... just going over all this stuff today... there is sooo much potential in all this I don't even know where to begin. my god The GEFs 18s first off all ..it's actually attempting to parse the 2nd wave/reduce it's interference, such that both events get a shot. There's an emerging -EPO that could be truly historic. 580 dm heights closed over the Alaskan sector is ...well. whatever. This is pretty exotic in the operational run. I mean it's in the long range so it's just eye candy but that's a what-the-fucker up there

well...that didn't take long. moderate impact ... It's not settled. We're not spiking the ball here. just sayn' I'm actually getting caught up.

That lead aspect you annotated there is part of the problem when getting into this ordeal at sub-pattern scale discussion ... it's triggering and then whisking away the dynamics fuel for the lead's engine.

My gut tells me we're getting clipped by a moderate impact - It'll be by a system that "could have" been truly magnificent, but the interference is probably real and will mechanically limit the this lead's ability. It's well on it's way through hour 90 or so... then, it opens up like that - it opens because there's a non-linear offset. Not you, but to the general user: that is not something you can "see" on a chart. It's exposed via behavior - case in point, the unusual opening back up when the totality of the +PNA is still maxing. There's almost no other explanation for why that does that. Here's the thing.. that 2nd wave is entirely assimilated - unless there's been some sort of breakthrough in data gathering that I am less privy to, the source origin of the 2nd wave's guts are out over the Date Line. If that comes in weaker and/or the timing allows for a bigger gap, the lead will almost certainly grow more intense in lockstep with that correction. If anyone bothers, go back to the big hit by the GFS yesterday and compare the gap between the previous runs, you can see the big hit run was wider... anyway... I think when push comes to shove, the models are not that good? not enough to project 90% of reality when in this particularly unique situation with sudden onset +d(PNA) and handling too balls in the nut sack. The lead wave space is sampling now, and there's some GEFs and GFS and implications, so it triggering the physics enough in the model

So does this thread cover both scenarios? perhaps it should if it doesn't because there's a clear binary dependency going on with these

The problems in all guidance could not be any more glaringly obvious ... It's all exceptionally highly sensitive to wave spacing issues. Sorry to keep hitting this aspect; I'm not seeing many of you writing about it. The diving "2nd wave" is bullying into the trough, imparting a polar oriented correction vector to the flow - trying to lift it up; that is directly opposing/offsetting the ability for the lead wave space to intrinsically dig/maintain amplitude. done deal. game over. that all has to iron itself out such that: a, one or the other becomes dominant or b, neither will be very significant. or c, some minoring event transpires perhaps out of both -... but in this case, the 2nd is a wild card. And Scott's right big time. The baroclinic axis is getting swept seaward and is not recovering in some of these guidance. That was magnificently spelled out in the 00z GFS, which showed an explosion of squally -linear convection out over the outer g-string, gobbling up al the moisture dynamics and running away with it. There's no other way in nature to demonstrate that without y'all learning Navier-Stokes

Lot's of negative interference... It's been plaguing the 15/16 wave space, in every guidance really since the get go. Still, the EPS mean has steadily improved - just not a chunk move - yet ... but this at least a middling impact signaled here

I’ve seen this kind of thing before… You get kind of a bowing back west and the pressure field with a lot of cyclone out east at this range, but then as you get closer, the western solution ends up taking over. This is similar to that, but it’s just doing it with a system that’s progressive so it makes it kind of weird looking Take away being that it’s possible this is just the hurry up and wait for the W solution to start winning. But that wall of convection erupting over the g string off. The coast is definitely robbing this thing.

Just posted what I think is related to that limitation it’s… Pretty clear that is stealing a lot of dynamics

You can see this premature ejaculation erupting off the southeast coast prior to the best amplitude/DPVA approaching the M Atlantic… This thing is basically starving because of that blow off going on off the coast That’s just the solution. I’m not sure I believe that.

Not a very good solution… I mean it’s interesting meteorologically but for the purpose of why people are in this forum it’s not very good solution

so ... because of that, the low actually doesn't deepen very much beyond that 120 period ... stuff to iron still ...

Oh that's interesting... okay, little tamer thereafter... It appears the b-c axis may be disconnected from this deep layer evolution. Probably too far E frankly... mm, I think that recovers faster with the native g-string and all that. It's just fuzzy in the model at this range - probably.

wow...this is going to be a long duration nor'easter with probably upper tier impact scenarios in that solution... it's only 120 hrs and already moderate to hvy snow is exploded from DCA BOS and the lows about to get captured still ... may be a season definer ... as is, in this depiction, it would be for the DCA-PHL crew

heh, actually ends up deeper by a couple dm ( 500 mb hgts) when it closes off there ...120 or so hrs.

maybe coming in slightly less amped this run... but still a deep sharp trough

Also useful to point out that the bulging into Manitoba is really critical there. That axial location near Frisco is traditionally too far west, but the idiosyncrasy of that arm rotating S on the heals of the 'Lakes trough is completing the wave space's couplet ...which transitively is favorable for maintaining amplitude that far E of the "real" ridge axis. Synoptic interpretation is a lot harder than folks realize. Just seeing where ridges and troughs are isn't the half of it.

UKMET trended favorably ... It's still not getting it done, but its trough cinema is rotating neutral with an attempt at neg as it curls through our longitude. 00z had the entire scope of it positive and pancaked, with nada. It seems with all this weight (multi source and amp) we have signal here for improvement - probably goes without saying... but, I'd still caution that we need to get some next-cycle continuity.

This snapshot of the EPS mean from Pivotal ... heh... you know, not only is this a huge improvement in the signal, there are members that are actually west of the Del Marva to Logan climatology. that would be f'n hilarious, huh

oh gees. i can't. i'm cooking. like up to my elbows in the kicchen. i'll have to take a break here in a minute

just a little ob. the 12z ICON didn't get it done, however...was a massive correction west with the cyclogenic aspects. huge for that one run cycle. can't correct even half that much more over else there'll be hell to pay

yeah, that's a 'spread alarm' actually. that's a metaphorical equivalent of the model mean going, "oh, wait a sec, tho -"

Yeah, and then looking at the next series in the cinema as the run's rolling out, it's definitely the morphology of the 2nd wave that is backing off the negative interference, and allowing the 1st in the series to do it's thing... The GFS has chosen. Ha...let's see if it changes it's mind in the future

So ...this is the 170 hour position from two nights ago, oper. GFS, on the left. On the right is 12z for that same time 36 to 48 hours worth of runs later.... You can see the morphology in the total handling of each ball in the nut sack of this pattern. This latter run shows the 2nd wave is in fact less coherent ...schism into a couple of more minoring wave spaces, while also, the 1st wave is more potent, and, further along downs stream. These are perhaps subtle but are crucial differences nonetheless. That latter of the two runs is allowing the lead to conserve more in totality and thus is operating more cyclogensis/capable of doing so ..etc. This could be the capitulation ( beginning ) toward one of these areas becoming dominant. Too early to tell... could all be a red herring too

alright.. i'll just add this much quickly. 24 hours from now, the dark circle represents the ballast of the wave space ultimately delivering ...whatever is destined to take place along and off the EC ..circa 15/16. That has to be relayed out of the assimilated sounding domain ( unless that tech state has changed...), then ...it has to interact and/if integrate with Canadian pass-by phasing ... These recent GFS runs are handsome with all that relay - which unfortunately has a lot of 'correct-ability' potential to it. It could be right. or it could be wrong. Particularly, the 2nd wave in that headache ... that can still modulate to less (more ) interference - so there's that too