Typhoon Tip

Theres very likely to be a tropical cyclone their guys .. that’s the least uncertain part.

Just in time for next week ...heh.. . Yeah I dunno though... I'm not a big fan of that huge warm up and haven't been anyway. we'll see..

Typical behavior of a sensitive system at the nadir - it's responding to everything

So long as one is careful not to conflate "surprise" with "destruction" I mean it would only help to get folks under cover. Otherwise, it wouldn't really matter whether there is element surprise... A category 3 hurricane moving that fast, whether seen coming or not is sides the point; it is doing the same consequential shit where ever it decides to encounter land... Like all water access terminals and real-estate ventures spanning the last 70 years from Brownsville to Portland, most of these regions were expanded profligate with only passive concern if awareness at all to the relative rarity of a 1938 ...or a Galveston 1901 ... or a Labor Day bomb... Andrew... Maria ... etc etc... and well, these things are simply going to happen again. The present infrastructure of the upper MA and S. SNE regions is an order of magnitude more valuable/expanded in terms of economic equivalency ... such that proportion to era would make a 1938 redux the superior loss in these modern times. So yes and no... these other relativity make that no sense of ease or comfort even if one gets to know it's coming ...

Assuming it wobbles N up the coast spanning three languid days as the ridge lobes over top like that - big if ... - that flatter correction of the Lakes trough takes New England out of the running anyway. Might be more of a swipe up Nick's way in this type of solution... but, this one ain't stickin' either.

It's not a typical pattern... There's not very much climate -based precedence for getting a hurricane up this far N comparing the totality of the synoptic evolution of either this 00z, the 12z ...or their blended solution(s).

Just think ... There was once a time when it was absurd to think of the world as round. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of contraptions that could fly. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of going to the moon. Just like it is now absurd to imagine any technological reality where weather prediction has become a thing of the past. Why, ...because of the advances in Quantum sciences leading to atmospheric momentum guide technologies... Yes, in addition to circumventing the Light Speed limit as described by General Relativity ... a nifty ancillary "precipitant" ( haha ) ability is the advent of the "weather modification net." A global systemic control that dictates the rain and sun cycles around an idealized application that ( of coure) falls well short of any reason for worry. Completely banal and uninspired garden watering, followed by utterly dependable utopic mixtures of sun, clouds andtepid air. That's what everyone wants. If such a reality were to envelop the world tomorrow - just supposin' for a second. .. - I wonder. About how long do we think this ilk of social media would continue to depot internet pass-time ? Oh... I give it a two years... By then, then, most that sojourn the past will finally have grown tired of reiterating the same sagas. And the newer generations that never knew of a world that weather-mattered, having socialized their interest elsewhere, will no longer matriculate in and interest will have extinguished ... just like everything that exists in a Universe intrinsically limited by finite time - including ... the Universe its self - eventually does.

Not sure what the other Mets feel about this new "Bahama bomber" potential ... but the more I look over things, this appears to be a greater confidence that a TC will be handled, with limited/no confidence should the former actually happen... That is a highly unusual total handling in the larger synoptic scope/evolution ...noooot typically how we get a TC to run the course up the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, not many climate players are really even identifiable. Typology: ...just off the top of memory... 1 .. there is usually a 300 to 200 mb escape jet running ENE over/out of the NE U.S. region 2 .. some form of negative anomaly is settling into the 90W-80W region nearing mid latitudes over eastern N/A 3 .. some form of blocking ridge ( be it anchored in planetary wave and/or nodal cut-off ...) is lingering between 60W and 70 W over the western Atlantic Basin. ... We really only vaguely at best can identify these structures in whole based upon the operational Euro from D3.5 through D8... What the Euro is attempting to do, is pin the fledgling cyclone near the vicinity of the Bahamas and bide time ... waiting to evolve ridging and associate lower tropospheric surface +PP N of the system. This lobes over the top, ...finally, out there in the inherently less likely to even verify time frame ( anyway ) the western side of that configuration at last happens to set up a steering field to finally bring it up the coast. ... I mean, objectively, you see where I'm going...? I'd put this entirety at low likeliness at best. I suppose it is not impossible.. Fact of that matter, the models don't "really" model things that are "im"possible. Perhaps less likely ...sure.. for whatever reason. Anyway, I'd more inclined to suggest that if said ridging does lobe over top like that ...this thing might end up bumped agonizingly slowly into the interior SE somewhere ...

Actually ... to be fair ... every model has at one time or another, depicted a spin up in that region going back some four days- it's just not been very consistent, nor did they have the benefit of having an actual disturbance there to lend confidence in anything other than a phantom - it just makes it hard to know 'what' is the real origin. That's the problem with a fractal factorization running along with any propagated dynamic system - some emergence is legit... others, not so much. Anyway, I've been looking out over the CV traffic in the models and just like every year between late August onwards ... every guidance has instantiated a different TC at different times, both within their own discontinuities ...and with respect to one another - it's that buck shot time of year in the tropics. Every seabird's wake vortice seems to trundle off into the history books - It's been a good teaser year, though, so far.. Because we have this modeling earnest trough carve-out tendency in the extended at least excuse imaginable going on...and every time that happens... if there happens to be a phantom within grasping range it becomes the pen for the posting author.

This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ... now that's one that should be interesting - It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going.

yeah was just gonna say... first face-smack shock and "shawl" whip back day of this early season... Actually reminds me of one of those first warm up attempts in early to mid May, where we get a taste on one day, than pay our geographical curse tax by being back banged by a N/door or otherwise, cool back for two days sharply, before the ridge gets more positioned to fend off the Maritimes ... And we'll see if the biggie warm up in the latter mid/ext range has legs... personally still have my doubts. Already the Euro tries to gut the ridge by shirking a deg C out of the 850 mb guts ... next to go will be the lengh of the ridge... until it whittles down to 18 hours of humid sw mist... Or not... Just sayn', wouldn't shock me

No more or less crazy than this for the same time period..

kind of funny ...all these qualifiers why a day 9 or day 10 is more intriguing cuz - ..of course it is ... heh.. I've give that position/TC there about 10% chance of being real ( intensity notwithstanding..), over the base-line 4%, more typical of at that time range. which of course means there's 90% chance to be excited over just about anything else. ... But, it's a hind-sight 2020 game of 'see' - cuz if it's there, the conclusion of foresight will of course not include the dump luck shit spray factor of models too often having phantoms there at that time range and therefore once in a while will seemingly get dapple right.

I'm wondering if there's some pan-systemic nature to the planetary system of teleconnectors, air, sea and land, that "gestalt" favors those "MJO wave" looks at this time of year(s). Thing is, I'm not ready to doubt those looks out of hand because we've actually hit some of those. Most of the time we end up with something flatter/tamer, more climate-like in terms of autumn amplitude, but there have been some oddities increasing in frequency, too. For example, there have been more October verified patterns either conducive to snow, or supportive of, than I can remember ever occurring through the previous 25 years before 2000. In fact, 1/3 to 1/2 of those years since, and I'd be willing to throw those white thanks givings in recent years into the mix of the "October" distinction - I mean obviously the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about Julian calendar temporal designations when it's cycling through its anomalies... etc.. Obviously if one is concerned with TCs affecting the eastern seaboard, some sort of negative anomaly ivo the OV while there is a western Atlantic Basin subtropical ridge helps your cause. TC gets guided into the key slot region of the outer Bahamas and then the perennial over-zealous PNAP structure completes the relay and there we go. But, seeing as we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time setting that quintessential pattern in the models, it also seems we have one on the D11 charts at all times. So I guess in short .. I wonder if the models are like setting themselves up for over-production of TCs in the east because of their predilection for these pattern orientations.

Seems like that's been depicted in that D6-10 ranges more often than the D2-5's ...i dunno... maybe this time will be different

Occasionally we'll get a click-by shooting by some nimrod troll that's too stupid to realize they aren't making the impact they think they are, and are in fact only sounding like this guy ... But those aren't really the typical forum user. Most of y'all and the regulars in here really are not the target of these moguls and/or celebrities of the denial-sphere. They're targeting their constituencies, telling them what they wanna here. Morality and ethics have nothing to do with it. They have an easily life if their constituencies are happy - and what makes them happy? This clear and obvious logically flawed vomit they spew from their bully pulpits...

ye-heh ... now that summer's back is solidly broken ..here comes the the Euro. Buuut, like I said earlier - can't be trusted. one school is ... it sets in the face of all the summer's back is broken spin doctoring that deludes us closer to the snow coke snort season, so we DEFinitely can't believe a warm pattern now. but... more pragmatically, it's done this all year... and I'll be surprised if that look is there this time tomorrow.

Models doing everything in their power to bully +PNAP though. The signal was warmer over the last two day's of run/blends/means compare to the runs from overnight - I just have seen this all summer, and it is still going on in the models where they struggle away to build a ridges over four days of trend, only to implode them at least excuse in one or two cycles seemingly "inventing" reasons to topple ridges/erode/ablate them, and well, even though they haven't verified in the dailies'/details particularly well, we have been dodging the real beefy heat. It's a hard subject to debate though, because it's textured. We've been above normal It really comes down to saying, 'we could have been much more so relative to failed patterns of mid/exteded ranges' - it's all about that relativity. We're cool relative to the patterns at times, but verifying above normal for the stretch. interesting. Anyway, as we are nearing the equinox and deepening our wade into the transition season, I feel ...well, wonder, if the AO's persistent negative phase state ( and other vestigial signatures for that via observation of higher speed flows from jet suppression ) we've witnessed all summer, might carry over into autumn for some earlier cool snaps. But then it gets blurry with that relativity again. Because, the -AO ( if so ) could merely off-set and brings closer to neutral. It's the expanded Hadley cell that is scienced and documented associated with GW - it's not just me and my protestations, either. This is known and refereed in the ambit of general research. I thought I was the only one noticing this .. but was to find out I was actually late-ish to that party really ( ...but don't feel too badly ... most in society/media never got the invite to begin with ). By subtle measures of DAM depth in the atmosphere, the heights are bloated around the tropical and subtropical "girdle" of the planet. This "presses" N into mid latitudes and what is really almost too subtle to see in summer, becomes a bit more coherently noticeable in winters; and that is steeper mean gradients when the boreal heights fall off and the total geometry of the atmosphere gets sloped unusually so between the mid latitudes and PV latitudes. That's why we've set so many land-speed flight records in the recent decade(s), among many other evidences. But these aren't just interesting observations [ probably/likely ] related to GW. They may be effecting the pattern management/verification of the models, and I also believe it becomes somewhat problematic for assessing storm characterization by deterministic areas of the weather sciences - because a goodly bit of that is based on storm natures that were different 50 years ago/climate in general. It's digressing - I just was going to correct a statement and ended up adding to this post too much. Sorry. But, I'll tale off with, any seasonal outlook that doesn't begin or at least even hint that this above factors in, may be less worthy ( imho ).

You do realize I was being a sarcastic asshole - right ... heh. Will might be a better regular user to ask the latter question. I'm not much of a stat guy but... say, 12 storms threatening the EC > Cat 2 ... that's like what, over the last 100 years ? 100/12 = 8 1/3 years so using the 'dopes linear regression' technique that means we should be threatened on the EC ( some where )a little less than once per decade by a cyclone worth counting/discussion ( lest the models bust! ) ... and I'm not sure those feed in numbers are even right ... Just seemin' like they are Problem with doping studies and then rendering them to the public with mighty turns of "entertaining" phrase and/or convincing pen in general is that we tend to end up with Trumpian presidencies when we do, so we gotta be careful these days... That, and of course we have to keep in mind that hurricane statistical topography is anything but evenly distributed... Some decades in that span had like 6 inside of 7 years and other eras seemed eternally dearthed ... Young doe-eyed Mets were born lived, and died in a drug related vehicular incident before another one repeated ...

This season may set an under-the-radar record ... ... for number of ghost 1938 reduxes in the GFS models - it's a little known distinction kept track of by NHC ... how many times this duck hunt happens every years -vs- how many times it actually does. ... The third column over in the Excel spreadsheet's header read, "Weather-related social-media's buy-in head nodding"

Mmm... The problem with Trump is Trump ... not political in nature; political distinction left the discussion ( or should long have by now ) for anyone with a modicum of intellect and moral/ethical awareness for quite awhile. Wrecking balls of social stability can be red, white, orange, purple, yellow, Democrat, Republican or Libertarian.. Regardless, they are only detrimental, and that is true, with or without the invocation of political orientation - that is the problem. ...end discussion. If you can't stand Republicans or Democrats or Libertarians, fine ... you need to fight for candidates that do not represent what Trump brings to the office of the presidency. Get it? jesus christ. Sorry, this is not directed any one in particular 'cept the straw man. But I do believe that Society is already getting their modes of awareness centered around the above realization as it's becoming clear in a spectrum of ways.

00z and 06z oper. GFS runs finish what Dorian failed to do ...

This thing reminds me of a bigger version of the 2005 Dec bomb that folded the tropopause and blasted SE zones with 90 mph wind gusts... Man...that storm was so unique. 15" of snow fell in 4 hours with almost no wind in interior Metrowest... meanwhile, lightning/thunder sheet rains flipped to snow during a macroburst ( so to speak ) that p-waved under the vort max and basically tarred and feathered everything in white flashing - whole thing was over in 5 hours and rendered to a peaceful undercut red sky sunset ...

Yeeeah, but in your defense ... that's sooo typical of that administration's tact - or has been to date... Fire anyone of rank and file, that offers the mere impropriety of opposition to the perspectives of the cadre, in lieu of hiring anyone that in fact supports said intentions - What do we call that class ? FAscism! Very good - y'all get a A. What? Are we in the weeds - we can't f'n see this happening? Heh... western civilization ( actually, human beings) really now has a substantive reason for doom prophesy. The era of the street-corner sign waving, auto-dismissive cookery is gone. Our species is earmarked for extinction, or in the least ... a population correction, one so magnificent as to be too untenable and therefore ... escaping any affecting/effective meaning - hence the ease in denial. It's easy to deny something that has no meaning - perfect catch-22. So, lets clap hands chew bubble gum and watch porn - cuz as Ebonic wisdom always most succinctly put, we be f'ed anyway.