Typhoon Tip

I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some. I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. NAM numbers certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh. But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled. Usually over-assessed. Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification. we'll see -..

Not to be dismissive but ... of more importance to me is not that cold shot. That particular range of ..well, any guidance for that matter, is going to be inherently stochastic - meaning... variable, which for our parlance of weather-related model observance, means it prooobably won't be in the next run.. Certainly, details will vary too much to depend on it.. But the big stem wound "hemibomb" that carves a black-hole through western Onatario has been strongly hinted in multiple guidance sources going back days only getting more prevalent with each passing run cycle (on average). It's not declaration in certitude by any means or intent... but, that's the type of thing I like to look for about now. Laying down big snows in the midriff latitudes of the Canadian shield... It's a good thing for winter enthusiasts should there occur an early season E-based -EPO while/if an antecedent snow pack/cryosphere is established underneath the dump zone of the NE cold loading pattern.

Could also be that we arrived into a new world where warmth pervades like, everywhere ... Perhaps it merely is not "normal" because it has not existed long enough yet to move the 30 year norms... 100 years...etc. If we are comparing a new base-line against an old one, that makes the usefulness less dependable. Remember, we're looking for "anomalies" to define eras of cool and warm ENSO states. Anomaly is generally determined via standard deviation ...in statistical mathematics, which means, find the mean... Subtract the events of the data set from the mean, square each result, ... find that mean, then, determine it's square root. See that word 'mean' popping up in there as the recurrent variable? Just keep in mind .. if the mean is no longer fixed in time, ... Put it this way, it may be useful to ask if those products that display the present states of the ENSO are normalized to account for a changing system. I think one of the papered reasons why the big recent El Nino did not register "as many" more typical global impacts of warm ENSO ... particularly considering it's own extremeness, is related to a system where the warmth/extent may be getting skewed by a steadily less validating comparison

Interesting that autumn of 1995 didn't make that list ... heh, maybe because it was soft Nina that year? I've never looked into myself but ... I've often mused about that syrupy late November thru December we had that autumn into early winter. I recall, somewhere between mid month and January one evening, sloggin' it downtown in Boston ... mesmerized by just how haltingly cold felt to even breathe. A friend and I had just parked ... probably, illegally, but the city sidewalks and thoroughfares were all too inundated for anyone to identify zones ..much less care to do much about it. Plus, it was about 8 o'clock. No parking ban - just clear and bone cold as we climbed over a semi-soft snowbank seeking a narrowed sidewalk, where the snow squeaked under foot - the kind where every step slid backward slightly as though to keep you exposed to the chill just that little bit longer en route to destination. The neon sign just down the way switches, "Temperature 9 F" ... I remember that, clearly, coherently, vividly. 9 ... In 1995, that autumn collapsed with no uncertainty ... I'd say approaching Thanks Giggedy if memory serves. Really, is to this day the ultimate front loaded winter. Perhaps 2003... But, we had snow on the ground in the western suburbs of Boston out there between 128 and 495 prior to the holiday and didn't see the ground again until the equally impressive thaw of late January - to this day... oh what might have been if that thaw never transpired. But long before that interruption, "I'm deamin' of a too much whiiiite, for Christmas" Anyway, I'm not sure if that stretch took any trophies home for minimum anything ... but it sure was damn cold, at times shockingly so - if I had to be honest, I was still just 10 years a new SNE resident up to that time, whereby the steady diet of mundane unimpressive winters since '85 really didn't have a lot of 'early cold' in the best of times. So, when late autumn 1995 wrought cryo-glory it was destined to be indelible in memory. But ...why? Why was it so damn cold so early, so unrelenting. Looking back at teleconnector records...there's nothing in the numerology and/or distribution between the respective indices that really pin-points much. I just remember the "MRF" day 6 thru 10 range at Unisys (mind us, this was a bit before ubiquitous internet weather charts that many are so privileged, if perhaps shouldn't be exposed to heh..) always showing a huge sloped flow from Alaska to the TV... then up along the EC, with these like ...ensemble line perturbation just perfectly placed in space and time, non-interfering. Damn... I wonder if we'll ever see that again before GW finally gobbles up our latitude for good.

Mm... I think that has merit, though. I more than less echoed that sentiment a month ago when the extended models ...particularly the GFS, began the seemingly perennial perfunctory winter start date by October 20th ... In other word, I understand where you are coming from and tend to agree... It's almost like a bigger, hemispheric "rushing a pattern" change in the models... almost at a seasonal thing. interesting.. But yeah, it's more or less what I'm thinking... that a "real" pattern is yet to really formulate -

As far as November... Seems more like a "pattern" not committing one way or the other. We may be in wait of hemispheric gradients to steepen up a bit more. Eventually exposing where heat source and sinks are situated ...the resulting/leading to a coherent 'base-line' look. I think what Will says resonates the best, the ensembles are 'flip-flopping,' as perhaps a reflection of models being guided more by noise than by said establishment. Hate to employ a cliche but unfortunately seems apropos ..things can change in a hurry when all that comes into focus... Some point of the several weeks and so on. Until then... about where we should be for this time of year ..give or take. I mean your dailies will never pin-point climate, but all things being equal we seem pretty normal.

tweet 1: contrary to popular defense mechanism .. I like the steady diet of coastals in october. my experience, that tends to parlay better tweet 2: this whole "nor'easter" is turning into much more of a waa push. There's gradient out ahead causing and easterly fetch, but this low cuts west and we end up 10c at 850 and it's not a big deal low at all.

There's a lot of wave interference with this in recent model runs... In fact, there's a discerned trend to really have the deeper whole-scale amplitude take place a day and half later beyond Sunday. These features are coming off the Pacific Basin at a low trajectory - i.e., not as much in the physical soundings. It's not entirely clear to me the models have a firm handle on what material they really want to use in conjunction with the L/W amplification. They could start backing off the lead - they could come back with it.

To be blunt ... what goes on in here is not much better honestly. It was back in Eastern, perhaps. Not here... The standardization and quality shortly after this platformed off Eastern's demise, both relaxed. Sorry they just did. Who knows why... Well, I have my suspicions -

Yeah, that could be it... And agreed - one would think that temps ...and thus, integrated thickness intervals, should be seen prior to adulteration by the artistry of the industry -heh. It just seems awful fast how quickly that's warming... But, the high is also not retreating in the best location... A bit eastward ballast - should impart a pretty hefty long shore fetch and forget it - I dunno... a few things need to happen for cold enthusiasts -

GFS may have warm biases (...or not) but so too does "October" Anyway, ... large scale structural components do have some text-book aspects about them. Literally...the nearer term Maine exit cyclogenesis and backside CAA looks right out of the K.U. catalog derived check-list, because at that time, ...it could be providing subsequent E.C. cyclone with cold air arriving 36 hours thereafter. There are multiple isobars crossing the sub-540 dm thicknesses with this lead system - i.e., deep layer CAA. The problem is then two folds... How much? 2nd, the models appear as though they are moderating that cold too soon - however, by what standards? I'm not sure what the recovery rate on air masses of the -1 or -2 SD in the critical thickness levels ( < 700 mb ) really is in late October. As 2011 demonstrated, sometimes we need to get in tighter to the event before the models "see" the extend/magnitude of that particular component. For that matter ... I'd love to share an email with the moder(s) at NCEP ..whether the global-based numerical guidance 'factors' in climatology prior to release and consumption for the public. I am wondering if that cold complexion recovery speed might be caused because if there is an anomaly the models "might" be working a bit hard to normalize -

Will and I were discussing this a couple weeks ago... the empirical increase in snow occurrences/frequency since 2000 or so - it's been common enough that "fluke" (I know what you were talking about ... I'm just using your post as platform for this opine) is becoming a stressed term to describe snow in Octobers. Since roughly 2002 ( I think we discussed) 8 of the Octobers, so roughly half, have measured. Squalls, synoptic ...whatever cause and flavor notwithstanding, ...white. As for as J.B.'s rip-n-read tweet above ...folks, I don't know if comparing El Nino autumns from prior to 2000 (1977) really apply. Can't rule out a causal relationship - even partial of course. However, something else appears to be driving this as more than a mere handful argues for a systemic change. Logic dictates...larger systemic properties and behavior of the atmosphere may not have been in place in El Nino years of the more distant past. Supposition: Personally I believe that a net positive anomaly in the oceanic heat content over the entire breadth of the Pacific Basin is actually a reasonably fit for the earliest climate-change modeling of the late 1980s ...Those primitive tools suggested that NE Pacific flows would tend to bulge from latent heat fluxing, and that meant ridge tendencies --> NW flows through the western chunk of the continent. Cooling for N/A continent was inferred.. We are witnessing more North American continental cold loading in to the 40th parallel... more frequently in Octobers (autumns for that matter), with more proficiency than we had really seen in the previous 100 or more years worth of climate. Whether that is caused by some artifact of GW or not... cold comes from the N And, this has been occurring regardless of native and/or immediately leading ENSO states.

Mmm... that just looks like the perennial base-line PNAP structure there. Every year this happens ...some one sees height bulge west and a pancake into a shallow trough in the east, and they get excited, when that's the base-line hemispheric pattern that results from a laminar west vector over geographic features.

... I've read some post in here re the October statistics as bearing some correlation with ensuing DJF ... or maybe NDJFM ... whatever. I'll just add this quick opine fwiw - My experience is that there is a 'tendency' for storm frequency/active weather pattern establishment during the cool transition season. In fact, I might be inclined to say pattern tendency ... However, that does not say much about temperature anomaly distribution ( an equally important distinction). But, perhaps most importantly, "tendency" is far from "certainty." In dealing with any public domain, one needs to be careful though... Because even in making that caveat emptor, suppose an active October then happens to not precede an unusually stormy active winter. Any such audacious Meteorologist will then be summarily bent over a ceremonial reputation ram-rod. The qualifiers are missed ... I dunno, in lieu of what filtering wanted to hear: October .... storm ... = DJF, Kleenex and lotion. I just don't have as much of a problem in seeing a stormy year parlay off of an active autumn. I'll leave it at that. As far as this thing ... the problem I am seeing with the GFS operational runs (and I'm not sure upon using the free products, if the Euro is doing the same thing..,) is that there is a leading convective feed-back issue near the latitudes of the Va Capes... The spatial separation (as in distance...) between that early spin up, and the main trough amplitude is shrinking on average across successive runs ... as that gap closes, the model "might" be opting to wait for better forcing to detonate a coastal low. But, if you look at the vorticity products, you really can see small shrapnel seem to spontaneously spawn in the flow there and sort of closes off from the inside out over 18 or so hours once that initiates ... This then feeds back (I believe) on an erroneous early low that even bombs quite a bit... i suspect as we get closer that will continue to correct smoother and any more meaningful coastal cyclogen waits for the main trough amplitude. So...that's long -winded (pun intended...) for describing a look more guided by convective feedback. A storm will likely evolve in the period in question but those details are highly suspect to me.

Heh.. perhaps you're right ... (bold) ... It's one thing about this engagement that does impel eyes to roll from time to time. Seems like 'crowd physics' at times, more so than then the atmospheric stuff that gets sent through the model processing...haha, like there's two model technologies: The ECM, GFS..etc... vs the people's republic of popularity and perception. The 'meme of the day,' they are sometimes like a spontaneous emergent properties of an equally complex system of fractals - this is tongue in cheek, but crowd noise is disconnected from reality at times, yet equally validated ... awesome. I haven't been on here every day as of late so am less privy, but it's just an observation of social-media over the last 10 years.

I thought last year was decent as far as that whole holiday charm goes... woke up to 8" of powder and still moderate snow globe aggies ending in occasional lowered visibility snow squalls and sun... Icicles were even noted ... I mean was Rockwellian -

Meh... you guys were also pokin' the hornest nest a little on that, too ... The GEFs ...yeah, theirs some subtle positive anomaly there but the flow looks relatively flat all things compared from the Pacific to the west Atlantic. Barring semantic arguments, "retorch" mmm might be construed as a bit strong imho - That said, (now the hypocrisy) ... there was some hint as of two days - not sure if others were aware as the faux early winter-gasm was still flooding dopamine and therefore probably missed... It may be a bit more coherent/obtrustive now, but obviously, continuity would be preferred.

Does anyone have access to 'repostable' products that display the spread of the EPS ...? heh...didn't think so... But, I'd be interested in where the outliers are pointing - my hunch is deeper

Yeah...exactly - it's impressive

Pattern's not really boring if we know where to look ... and, we are not always expecting to be served big model bombs out of convenience to our weird entertainment fixation... But I'd watch that 'little critter' at 108 or so hours. It's a long shot ...repeat, long shot, but the probability is a little higher than nominal/background chances. As is, the impulse ripples through a marginal+ atmosphere, but that mid level wind max is cutting about 1.5 D south of the south coast. That track is both theoretical and climate friendly for UVM max moving along the Pike... I mean, it's at least SOMEthing. Bigger event still has tele support later on -

Ah... I could see that - ya.. To be responsible to the scientific process, I - personally - have never scienced that particular correlation. Come to think of it, that might be an interesting review of warm vs cool NINO's, against the background mode of the (EPO)AO(NAO)... Particularly the latter... Obviously, there is a bit of a correlation et al, but one might think it more coherent in the EPO. Anyway, but the +PNAP that's more favored in warm ENSOs would imply lower heights in the SE - as an intuitive guess ... a deep JB cold anomaly would result less squeezing of the overall flow. For storm enthusiasts, that might mean less storm frequency in lieu of greater storm strength and slow movement - in the means... There may be reason (right there) why west based, -NAO winters appear to be more nickle-dimers ... It's because they cause (or "can" cause rather) the flow to speed up from Montana to the Va Capes so much that system type favors littler critters (so to speak). Then it's west-based deep NAO or west based weak NAO... oy -

spoken like a true prodigy

This series of 12z charts ... I wonder if might prove a reasonable sort of 'micro' analogue for how this season's storm/pattern frequency unfolds... We are entering about a five day stint (or so..) of dominant N-stream... after which, that feature/semi-persistence lifts out ...and the flow left in the wake at mid latitudes is left "baggy" and non-descript..but open to suggestion (so to speak). It's when the flow relaxes often that larger scale cyclogen gets more favorable due to lowering shear in the flow. So, the Pacific answers the call and ejects a decent wave through the west and tries to phase with vestigial S-stream gunk in the TV/Gulf region...and together there's suggestion of storm genesis. ... But anyway, I see that sort of repeating on whole... with bouts of N-stream that relaxes ...setting up our storm chances... The renegade over-achieving Clipper system notwithstanding...

As impressive as this may be for some ... to think, this air mass actually moderated a little in the last two days leading (models) ...taking some edge off the extremeness.

Impressive transitory character to this new pattern ... On the rough it's like... 65 today; 40 if we're lucky tomorrow; 60 Friday/Sat; 40 Sunday ... up down up down... The northern stream tends to relax in the longer term, at which point the thickness tapestry from the NP-Lakes -OV ..NE has shed some 10 to 15 dm and no means to recover ... leaving a much more Novembery look - this whole period symbolically was a rasp to erode the last vestiges of the warm season...