Typhoon Tip

This event, and it is an "event" in my mind ... has a furtive characteristic to it, that tops everything on the list. The 'SE ridge' that is typically if not more obscured at times, present during these warm episodes in the distant past, is much more than just that in present era. Heights over a vast, disturbingly large circumvallate of the SW Atlantic basin, are over 594 dam ... IN JANUARY... At least in my tenure on this planet.. I have never seen that before. What I believe is happening, which lends to this being something notable enough .. is that the R-wave patterning has happened to come into a superposition with the HC expansion, in a constructive wave interference. The two together are creating a sort of synergistic feed-back and we're seeing a 'rogue-ridge' signal in the atmosphere. Perhaps indirectly/transitively related to that ... in all guidance, we spend the next two days, post this pallid fropa this morning, with a polar high rolling over top (N!) through eastern Ontario, yet the 850 mb 0C isotherm struggles S of a BUF-BOS latitude? In January no less... As an aside, I've opined over in the climate forum upon multiple compositions that are too long for the attention span modern world social media ... how Americans have been living a kind of charmed existence during this entrance era of CC's pernicious effect. In effect, we are affectedly being protected from sensible awareness of it. Oh some of us do sense and observe changes, but those examples are far more subtle than they are gross enough displays, such as burning continents down-under. Which I'm sure the counter-arguing shimmeral "moral" base is currently composing a well-formed paper that it's only happened because of man's prevention of "normalcy" - which in partial truth, allow them to get away with it... We would be rarer to find summer heights over such a vast area of the SW Atlantic Basin persisting so long between 594 to 600 dm; typically getting a circumvallate of say 590 ( which seems like a minor difference to lay-folk but is an important physical sensitivity ) would roast the population mecca, presaging or in tandem, an 88 to 96 heat wave from the els of the eastern cordillera to the I-95 corridor. If this super-position event taking place now, happens May 10 through August 10? ( which I contend merely hasn't ... yet) we're talking 103 to 110 at Logan And don't think that can't happen ( not you per se - the 'royal yous'). There would probably be a historic heat wave that presses the physical ceiling and just parks the dailies at 107, with lows of 90 ...because despite all ..the sun is a constant but etc...etc.. cross that bridge. The low temperatures remaining elevated is where the ballast of GW is being noted, btw/is the point. We are doing a kind of 'perfect storm' R-wave timing over the tapestry of bloated HC, a constructive wave interference event. We are seeing it happen at a time of year that only instills a sense of frolic elation for 90% of society that steps out with a cup of coffee and goes, Ahh. While of course sending the remainder dystopian winter storm zealots like us to distraction ... Neither experience lends very well to "consequence" experience of GW, not in a species that is intrinsically blithe to the point of paralysis at reacting to any crisis that isn't directly appealing to the senses as hardship. I feel pretty highly confident, snark and resentment overtones aside... ( which I'm aware I come of that way about this particular subject matter - but that's for dark humor/entertainment and sarcasm...blah blah ), that this warming event happens in 1900, 1950, 1990, and 2020, but now? It is one that is getting a CC feed-back, and given enough sophistication in re-analysis, would prove that way. I know this is a historic Bermuda ridge for this time of year...and probably is in the top 10 percentile in summer, just existentialism, and probably a-priori. But, nuances in the flow and noise keep us from 70 ... okay... that's part of the furtive way in which we're being spared the burden too often.

Of course ...the Euro tried to signal that a month ago and it didn't happen. So... I think in this case though, there are attendant clues that may lend credence to the broader -scoped paradigm shift.

Take a look at the 12z operational Euro ... and note days 7 - 10 on that run, from SE of Hawaii all the way around to S of Bermuda off the U.S. SE Coast along/within that lower latitude belt. Notice the heights are falling ( finally) ..shedding some +4 + +6 dm anomalies ? That is a recession of the Hadely Cell modeled in the dailies right there... and I suggest the NAO starts to show some signs of switching modes ( or more sustainably/chances in doing so..) if/when that happens, because that in the deep south, in a transitive sense, will couple with a the AO and begin to pull that index down, with relaxing(er) mid latitude flows, and the onset of blocking also over Kamch., Alaska across the polar arc to Scandinavia et al actually... That's the integral. The AO having wended it's way demonstratively positive the way it has, is purely a function of the previous HC invading the lower Ferrel Cell... and guess what, we now see a very robust phase 7-8-1-2 in the MJO from all agency. These phases tend to correlate with the -AO, as they lend to storm/cyclone field activation along the interface of the HC/Ferrel cell latitudes... basically, 40th parallel ( ) ... and that means the Ferrel trade/Easterlies along 60 N are enhanced... and that's also concomitant with -AO. Starting to see the puzzle come together, and when I saw that balloon pop and deflate on the 12z Euro...that was like canary in the coal mine I was looking for - Yeah, February is a whole 'nother paradigm if these signals continue to emerge - they'll parlay into very interesting verifications. And it may happen before the end of this month, too.

I would have loved to have seen... I heard/read about it, but I would have been playing on that like a 10 year old if I was there...

Mm.. Thursday is still on the table in my opinion. As is, the 00z operational mean is a high latitude NJ model solution - which is true, whether it snows in one's backyard or not. This wave is flat, open and potent, and zipping along into and through region with reasonably well-established baroclinicy. There was a coherent, albeit small, adjustment south in the total wave -space translation on this 00z cycle, across the board, which opens the door ( particularly in the GGEM ) for more in the way of column collapse/dynamic to rip a snow burst for several hours in the latter half of this fast mover. In fact, the one 3 ..4 days later that's got folks attention, really is the same sort of scenario. Two NJ modelers ... perhaps taking a slightly biased northerly route, but monitor - Which by the way, shifting storm tracks N is part of the empirical observation spectrum seen around the N. Hemisphere noted over the last 20 years of CC but...we'll let that poke of the hornets nest run it's buzzing denial and rage - Anyway, that doesn't mean Thursday or the one after can't adjust that much more S. The Euro actually doesn't appear - to me - like it can actually get from it's 120 to 144 hour circumstances ( charts ) without at least some column collapse as well. D.E.M. looks good for an event either way. 06z GFS was a distraction, but I'm less concerned for that pending continuity so we'll see... The 00z individual members of the GEFs had some bona fide 10 to 14" looking NJ lows, too. P006, 1, 4 ... 7, 9 all these were getting it done, and I'm pretty sure that is a tick more aggressive compared to what I saw in the 12z suite. So, still on the table... so needs some work, but not a loss yet.

Man, that GGEM solution won't give up on the GOM bomb idea... Really stem wounds that into NS' season defining event.

heh...if today's any indicator, warm wants might consider this warm up to be stunted into a more vertical sounding orientation and not fully realizing the dry adiabats. Maybe... we'll see. There may be a kind of diffused warm frontal boundary in this and getting S of that tomorrow may open things up a bit, but these clouds jammed in seemingly with sun up and despite the already +4 to +6 at 850 mb, we're 44 and struggling to rise in annoying knuckles-cold

OR better yet .... we'll get some lead time frame event that's just not really associated with these large scale changes but just part of the on-going noise of atmospheric parlance...and folks will be like, 'nice ...didn't have to wait that long for the -EPO'

Yeah I was ...but, it could be true in both case, right - It's still beyond D 5 ... I'm/we're talking low probability for excitement here. Hopefully folks know this is just conjecture over what needs to sort of modulate to get to that excitement, more so than predictive determinism. That needs to be parsed out because given enough open philosophical discussion, people begin to conflate the philosophy with actual forecasts, I've sensed/noticed.. It tends to then send folks reeling in a kind of 'extra special sense of personal betrayal' when "things don't work out" ...because ....maaaaybe they shouldn't have 'depended' on said conjecture to begin with quite as prophetically as they did. Even if they don't know they are too...interesting... Anyway, also -EPO ( which that much I am more convinced and prepared to forecast is likely at > 50% hopes and dreams at this point ) onsets sometimes do favor the initial hemispheric fist punching S ... WEST of ORD. That tends to torque the flow ephemerally S/faux warm along the Eastern seaboard. It's probably the systemic sort of roots of why and where the adage, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM" comes from. The cold lays down continental west and from then onward .. as it presses E with gradual lengthening of R-wave, the ambient baroclinic zone spawns storms the run up along it ...each successive one gradually shifts E ...sometimes this whole transition takes place quickly...sometimes over longer periods. That makes using climo stupid and offers the migraines. The thing about this...as the shifting b-c zone and governing favorable cyclogen mechanics move along, they have better productive zones for storm genesis, typically g-Lakes and Eastern/west Atlantic, because those regions have the other environmental factors favoring that are broader than just atmospheric. Speaking of gestalt. Like not having to contend with a mountain wall being in the way of cyclonic motion in the E... and add reason here:

Euro looks ( to me ..) as though it's battling it's own bias tendency for > 5 D modeling behavior on this 00z run last night ( operational )... That wave it passes N of the OV next week, still has a chance to take a slightly more southerly route, ...like the 00z GFS ironically... which with it's bias, would seem to fit the Euro's depiction better. Anyway, the Euro may be digging heights too prodigiously in the broader scope/'gestalt' of the flow out west, which concomitantly rises the same large spacial circumvallate in more tendency rather than actual observation, back east. Ha... It's kind of like creating an arena in the east for "least excuse imaginable" more so than executing it. You can just tell it has a bad attitude about NJ model lows.. Seriously, if it alleviates the flow just subtly enough out west, than the ridge in the E doesn't get that kick-back and force the S/W on that more N route "as much"... It's critical, because there are a few members and recent runs, that had more of NJ model plausibility with that thing. The 00z GFS has flashing over to S/S+ for four hours worth mid day next Thursday.

If the GFS and Euro are right ... Sunday is not the warmer day there. That's a contaminated/dirty misty warm sector with light rains and failed convection on radar, with abhorrently elevated DPs ( probably 57 -ish) for this time of year. The products that are supposed to hone in on those metrics may or may not show that, but experience alone...I've seen that look before and the mild day would be Saturday ...when less contaminated warm sector flow is well mixed and b-layers are about as tall as they can get at this time of year. If we get > 75% RH at cloud heights and mist, and 68 F anywhere around here on Sunday, we've definitely CC thresheld and you ain't getting winter ever again Hyperbolic kidding of course

That may be true in the spatial sense of it/orientation but ... the ESRL numerology/bar graphs argued this was beginning yesterday, too - just sayn'. The former observation type - if that's how that was determined of the GEFs, yesterday ... - may have yet hid that onset. But I posted about the ESRL making some nods, then

The better response to that is ... now - now is what can go wrong. It can't go more wrong than right now In other words, any other reality, if change is afoot, is going to be more right - so his statement is logically baseless... in addition to being purely rooted some weird resentment that it's not summer ( we guess... ); or in this case, resenting that appeal being discussed.

Fwiw - the ESRL are a 'little' more robust with -EPO ... One thing I'm noticing, the MJO from the NCEP camp is quite powerful and roaring through phase 5 and 6 over the next 10 days, which is a warm signal for eastern N/A at mid latitudes... It may be that the MJO wave its self, along with it's forcing, are in conflict with the attempted(ing) changes of the N arc of the Pacific. The Euro has a robust wave, but about half the magnitude, and collapses it mid way through Phase 6 ...which in total sort of "synergistic" consideration may be allowing it see more of a dominant WPO-EPO modulation on the our side of the Hemisphere .. comparing to the neggie wave interference of the GEFs. As an afterthought ...maybe that explains some of the GEFs/GFS progressive bias at times ...it tends to wave interference at large scales/integrals ... which would tend to send things on more W-E corrections..

We bandy the euphemism 'nuke' around but man, that GGEM next week ... that is a bomb

That's how you run a -EPO downloading ...

Yeah I was thinking that too ... it might get a cold load into that tuck region but does it have to be 4 degrees above absolute zero ... christ. Might make the optics of that more believable if it wasn't gradating the temperatures so extreme across that interface like that... I dunno - but we've seen plenty of BDs in your hood is similar set up - I think the extremeness in the GFS is tempting me to 86 the whole idea but that would be short-sighted on my part.

I have a feelin' ... this is gonna be a fun f'n run

Probably makes more sense, one way or the other, to either back off on the boob of cold dangling idea, with that 43 F gradient across 5 miles ( ) -vs just having less cold there .. if being more amped gets that done. There's probably a reason why history doesn't have that set up: either it's that rare, or... it can't do that.

The 'wtf' for me isn't the circumstance... it's that we expect any scenario where that bulb of dense air just sits there like that in January of all times while 62 F laze faire flag wavers taunt by and by ... Some times that happens ... said never. I wonder if so though. Like, has it ever been 17 F in PWM and 61 in Lowell... Could be a first ? interesting

Also, looks like somewhere in the area of 4.5 to 5 members of the GEF support the 00z GGEM's idea of something to watch D7/8 next week... One of which ends up like this, and the previous panel shows this clocked eastern New England - P009

That's definitely deeper signaled than the recent ERSL's ...which frankly, they didn't so much reflect an actual -EPO as much as 'appeared' to merely pull down the EPO by shear numerical wave spacing in having that ungodly -PNA ripping underneath. The latter - in other words - was stressing the domain space of the EPO just because it was/is so strong... We see this in the shared domain space of the AO and NAO all the time ... The AO tanks and the NAO drops from positive to modestly negative - that's usually an indication the NAO isn't 'really' neggiee so much as just having part of it's domain space weighted down by the flop over in geographical area..etc..etc.. However, this image above is clearly not that... We're not pulling shit when we're talking -2.5 SD spanning five days ... That's a legit signal. It'll be interesting to see if the ESRL's variation on these reflects - also - the change. Useful comparison for future referral too -

Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members. As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold. I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc. The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct. We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes. But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone. In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks! There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here.

sounds like the same conversation that broke out before the sleet bomb a couple weeks back ...