Typhoon Tip

Pattern's not really boring if we know where to look ... and, we are not always expecting to be served big model bombs out of convenience to our weird entertainment fixation... But I'd watch that 'little critter' at 108 or so hours. It's a long shot ...repeat, long shot, but the probability is a little higher than nominal/background chances. As is, the impulse ripples through a marginal+ atmosphere, but that mid level wind max is cutting about 1.5 D south of the south coast. That track is both theoretical and climate friendly for UVM max moving along the Pike... I mean, it's at least SOMEthing. Bigger event still has tele support later on -

Ah... I could see that - ya.. To be responsible to the scientific process, I - personally - have never scienced that particular correlation. Come to think of it, that might be an interesting review of warm vs cool NINO's, against the background mode of the (EPO)AO(NAO)... Particularly the latter... Obviously, there is a bit of a correlation et al, but one might think it more coherent in the EPO. Anyway, but the +PNAP that's more favored in warm ENSOs would imply lower heights in the SE - as an intuitive guess ... a deep JB cold anomaly would result less squeezing of the overall flow. For storm enthusiasts, that might mean less storm frequency in lieu of greater storm strength and slow movement - in the means... There may be reason (right there) why west based, -NAO winters appear to be more nickle-dimers ... It's because they cause (or "can" cause rather) the flow to speed up from Montana to the Va Capes so much that system type favors littler critters (so to speak). Then it's west-based deep NAO or west based weak NAO... oy -

spoken like a true prodigy

This series of 12z charts ... I wonder if might prove a reasonable sort of 'micro' analogue for how this season's storm/pattern frequency unfolds... We are entering about a five day stint (or so..) of dominant N-stream... after which, that feature/semi-persistence lifts out ...and the flow left in the wake at mid latitudes is left "baggy" and non-descript..but open to suggestion (so to speak). It's when the flow relaxes often that larger scale cyclogen gets more favorable due to lowering shear in the flow. So, the Pacific answers the call and ejects a decent wave through the west and tries to phase with vestigial S-stream gunk in the TV/Gulf region...and together there's suggestion of storm genesis. ... But anyway, I see that sort of repeating on whole... with bouts of N-stream that relaxes ...setting up our storm chances... The renegade over-achieving Clipper system notwithstanding...

As impressive as this may be for some ... to think, this air mass actually moderated a little in the last two days leading (models) ...taking some edge off the extremeness.

Impressive transitory character to this new pattern ... On the rough it's like... 65 today; 40 if we're lucky tomorrow; 60 Friday/Sat; 40 Sunday ... up down up down... The northern stream tends to relax in the longer term, at which point the thickness tapestry from the NP-Lakes -OV ..NE has shed some 10 to 15 dm and no means to recover ... leaving a much more Novembery look - this whole period symbolically was a rasp to erode the last vestiges of the warm season...

https://phys.org/news/2018-10-arctic-ice-limit-major-ocean.html

there's this really good one, DOUCHE ... It has a really good built in 'cleaner' that filters out bad data as a correction scheme -

Again ...if that happens.. I have seen these turn-around patterns a million times. Cold core comes through at noon to 1pm... and it's actually moving away en masse with a veering wind that same night. It'll cool off - of course.

Well anywho... I agree with the general theme/interest scope for wintry expression - anomalously so ... but to what degree, who knows - during the end days of October through early to mid November. The reason(s) for suspecting that ...isn't really even discernible in the operation versions yet. The mean is heavily clustered around a tandem dive in the AO/NAO ... It is hard to know which is dominant in that relationship, as they only partially over-lap domain space. In fact, the NAO is deeper in the mean SD ...so it may in fact be the NAO "pulling" the AO down. Either way, multi-day cycles have persisted with -SD values exceeding anything we have seen since last late February and Early March. Caveat emptor: ...west vs east based, should this blocking episode succeed? don't know - Last February was balmy ... culminating in a bewildering week of warmth mid to 2/3rds of the way through the month. The warmth breaks/displaces away, and ten days later, the NAO tanks. I am not sure that "relay" is in fact unrelated as it is noted the WAA terminating at high latitudes/altitudes often mark the onset of blocking regimes ... We are passing out of a similar eastern N/A ridge over the last week, while these NAO teleconnector at both the CDC and CPC showing a similar corrective behavior. The other aspect is that the lead phases of the PNA and EPO support cold loading on our side of the hemisphere ... and this at large scales also may parlay at cold delivery/efficiency. It strikes me actually as a bit of a redux to 2011 ...which I don't mean to say that's destined to repeat, but a similar enhancing probability for cold and enhancing QPF is acceptable.

This air mass coming in is deep, with thicknesses plumbing to an unusually deep sub 525 dam in dale - which for mid October is pushing extremeness. That said... yeah, it's possible the wind doesn't actually go calm? The high is slipping SW of us ...different than retreating NE... that may cause the wind to bend back SW, thus keeping the low levels quasi-better mixing with dry warm advection kicking in over night.... Where it does go "calm" would be restricted to decoupling in favored geographies in the deep interior, but most don't.. The wind just starts veering NW --> WNW toward dark --> WSW by 1am Friday morning at 10 kt wooshes... --> SW at dawn on Friday. Meanwhile, the overnight low temperatures nadir near 11:50 to 1:38 ...after which, steady and/or slowly rises. In fact, just looking at that Euro's 12z run, it does show the thickness plume bodily moving away with a diffuse warm boundary moving quickly through 12z Friday. Heh...could be a spectacular day despite.

Intense cold floods in overnight Wednesday, night ... Thursday a.m. dawns head scratching extreme ..relative to present calendar climo. And it's not radiational, either. -8 to -12 C at 850 mb level with 30 mph gusting prior to Halloween is disturbing ... if perhaps not getting the notice it should because we are jaded by extreme-saturation. hm .. Euro not as intense as the NAM ... at the warm end of that, but... either solution are disturbingly early for that sort of depth -

Barring a macro scale permutation ... it's likely to snow between the 25th and the 5th

That GGEM solution was was 2012 on roids'

This Thursday morning is setting up to be an impressive cold blast. 850 mb approaching -10 C with 30 + wind gust routine.

this morning's rains were dappled with blues in the ptypes as it was ... Not hard to imagine that as this pattern only deepens in the coming days and climo too, how/why those typically inflated snow products would flare up like that.

Duh...

I swear ... satellite can sometimes be like an Asher drawing (Esher?) I dunno how to spell that but ... according to high res looping visible, it's sunny - \wrong.. though the image appears this has peeled off and away, it's still cloudy and raining here. f lies man - I need it to be sunny, too, to work on my car out there.

Nice work! yea...sort of echoes my sentiments that it may be more like 'seasonal chill' that's just glorified for having abruptly book-ended such an extended unrelenting above normal -

Where is this relative to normalcy for those elevations zones up there? I'm curious as I'm thinking this air mass down our way is more shock value than actually deeper departures. Relative to the last several months ...and even these early weeks of the autumn, we just have not had this kind of knuckle sensitive chill to the air. Yet, mid 40s ... I wonder where that stands in the annuls of anomalies. Obviously, there are 'historic cold' numbers - but, that can be misleading, if history happened to be kind on a given date. There is also an expression in sensible weather vernacular that reads, "seasonally cold" too. I think this is colder than normal. Perhaps for October it's merely pushing it some... in November this would be more properly seasonally cold - that's sort of how I am leaning on characterizing this ..while I sit here typing with cold hands, wondering if/when I should turn on the heat in this house of mine. Every year it's an October challenge for me... 'can I make it Novie 1' .... I think I have once since living in this place - October 2012... though I was forced to those last couple of days of that month because the early snow nixed power for a week - oy.. Otherwise, I seem cave around the ides of Oct anyway. I may be running the vacuum nozzle along the electric elements here shortly as looking ahead, we aren't exactly in an endothermic weather pattern Anyway, not meaning to launch a semantic crusade over the question, as I'm sure some heads think anything less than 70 is ice box where the others believe anything greater than 32 is an oven. But should common sense prevail ...I'm thinking this is all more along the lines of, "finally...some autumn weather". I bet if it were sunny...we'd still make the low or mid 50s.

Yeah...I knew it was one way or the other ... 1977-1978 should've stopped me from guessing.. But, my point (I feel) cannot be dispensed with, and that is that the polarward index may or may not cooperate with shall we say ...expectations. My personal hunch is that these "polar vortex" (awful) winters are not accidentally associated with solar minima

Mm... maybe a 'and be done with it' in mind? Probably what happens is that attempts at warm ups keep emerging for awhile... say, ever three or four days. The pattern's change - pretty much today is/was the door swing on that. But, what we've ventured into is uncharted waters. That means there's some unknowns. The models are (as you know) not exact, and we could certainly wind up with a trough axis a tad west enough to allow occasional roll-up warm sectors to nick and/or transient brush throw... In fact, that may not be a bad course to go.. We've just dominated the dailies with at least some kind of SE ridge expression most of the time since in the end of May really... It might be naive to think it's just up and merrily departed for our convenience as winter warriors But through it all...plenty of autumn like and then some -

Book-ending/echoing Scott's sentiment ... I believe warm ENSO years tend to be front-loaders... don't quote me. They'd know specifically but I have that recollection. That said, that does not intend to mean that up... it's over January 1 ... I still maintain that the entire (EPO)AO(NAO) arc is a not well understood demonic wildcard that seems to show up in direct proportion to any semblance certainty that is based upon the ENSO - heh So, ..ignore those at one's peril

These municipal offices do the best job they can with the resources that are provided to them… I'm sure that there's been a bit of a talent drain in a lot of these offices. It's too bad… The writing was on the wall. I mentioned in that ought people not to lower their guard based on some historical precedent for systems weakening as they approach coast… I cited reasons why that was the case at the time. When I woke up to a category 4 the other day it was more frustrating than anything else.

There may not be much evidence of it now ... LR operational tenors/blends, or the teleconnectors... But such was also the case when the heat broke last February. A week of high 60s with two days mid stride of 70s to low 80s... and a week later a -NAO movement popped up in the tele's and went onto to an interesting March for eastern N/A... It may not, but this ridge pattern reminds me, in structure, of that Feb deal and always has. The thing is, ... terminating WAA patterns at high latitudes is often a precursor of negative polarward indexes so this ridge breaking down, plus a delivery (to mention...) of Michael's bundle ..one wouldn't be nutty to wonder if some sort of blocking evolves. Transient ...not speaking of the whole winter... but maybe the last 10 days of the month