Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

No .. I don't think that's cynical at all. I think that's a fair observation. Truth is, there is a reason these early cold snaps are becoming more common year to year. And, guess what? It's more than merely plausible. It has to do with the Pacific thermal ridge/bulge, combined with a permanent geographical circumstance that relates to the orientation of the N/American continent with respect to the west-to-east prevailing winds. Both cause ..or favor, NW flow in western Canada without the help of one another, as a rest/base-line tendency. The rest state of the Perennial North American Pattern features a mountain bulge, a flat ridge, the axis of which is collocated roughly with the Rockies cordillera ( Canada to Mexico).. Immediately down wind of this mean ridge there is a flattening out of the flow that is arguable a coupled trough. That is the geographically induced circulation mode. In present era of Pacific thermal surplus - particularly as we near the autumn and entry times to the cold season - that bulge combines with the ever present geographically induced ridge; superimposition over one another sort of "synergistically" enhances NW flows over western North America. That constructive wave interference than lends to tapping cold earlier and delivering it south toward N/A middle latitudes. As far as Gaia, that was more for science-fiction? A thought experiment. Muse out loud if you will. Though it's an intriguing premise for a book, don't you think? You know what it really hearkens to? I hearkens to the crashing airliner narrative, about how the moment of the accident is actually the end result of a series of events set into motion ... sometimes years in advance as forensics eventually piece together. It's just that with so many moving parts in the machinery of this planets biosphere and all the dependencies and delicate bandwidths of adaptation that need to remain stable, it gets to be so complex that its easier to just refer to it as Gaia. But, the geographic layout of our planetary interface with the prevailing N.H.wind ... causing slightly cooler variance over N/A as far as the GW we experience here, was like the plain wreck... That part of it formulated 10,000,000 years ago. Or if you really want to get outre with it, maybe Gaia set all this up back then.

Ten hours. Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements. This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up. Once the star begins fusing Silicon into Iron ...that's the end of the line. BOOM. That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc. The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. Here is the fascinating part. Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours. In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally. It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking. A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below. When I read articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..). There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe. So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system. We read about polar bear habitats. Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves. And we think we got it? As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it. As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half. But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means, in a lot of ways it is as though we are symbolically existing through our final, proverbial ten hours.

Oh ...geez, I missed the statement in the beginning - yeah, I guess what's relevant to them.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ice-refuge.html

I think it's interesting that these excerpts have an over-arching theme of monetary this and that, and how it will effect commerce ... And guess what? Money means nothing in nature. Nor, to climate change's ability to dwindle species survivability - yes, that includes the conceit of humanity, a fragility that will be exposed. Is this narrative - money vibe some manipulation of the audience? I mean, considering... it is an audience that cannot connect with anything unless they are impacted in their wallets, it's an understandable device. It's the only way to get them to pay attention and take this shit seriously.

I'm less than entirely familiar with the specifics of Australian climatology ... other than exposure to outback heat and dry cinema portrayed through science channel this, or old movie that.. I think it interesting that they are only in their spring .. which concomitantly means, the higher hotter sun and air potential looms, and it seems at a very simple level of consideration that this cannot project very favorably that this is happening this early.

Yeeeup .... Kind of hard to release 3 billion years of geological carbon stows ...back into the reactive chemistry environment in as little as 300 years, and expect all that volatility to go on without consequence... huh? F idiots But oh, wait! When the IR ( Industrial Revolution ) took place, the first thing anyone thought was, "..We're going to make a fortune off this profligate exploitation.." and that's a human failing. The next species that climbs out of the primordial ranks to take over the planet might have some built in checks-and-balances that we never seemed to evolve when our ingenuity outpaced the natural order of ecological limitation on provisions .. Those that always dictated species' populations and their inherent vitality and health and numbers. When we added to our share, these other systems subtracted from theirs. It's all just arithmetic - 8 billion people ( no wonder ) requires a mass extinction of these other species, THEN. That probably really is more than just symbolically what is happening to this world. The earth doesn't care what species it is... but all species can't exceed 20 billion ( say ). So if we occupy 8 billion of that space, something else has to wither away.. I like that, it's a great premise of sci-fiction, probably because like all really good sci-fi, it has plausibility based in fact.

I expanded on that... I do that often... write something and then hammer it with afterthoughts -sorry

Not to be snarky but I don't agree that population is the problem in among its self. This may seem totally obvious because, well .. .it is, but, it's what the population does that is the problem - not the population. There is an important distinction. I'm sure those involved in any such debate are aware.. And perhaps there is a 'built in' assumption, one that is cynical where they're musing back and forth within the predilection that humanity is incapable of a non-profligate exploitation way of existence. I could buy that ... I almost like that - almost. Greed first! Evidence certainly seems to suggest so. To that, I have friends directly keyed into the circuit of Boston area university scientists, and they all agree ... the problem is more clearly a sociological one, more so than a geo-physical one. Change attitudes... and the latter takes care of its self. It's still just the population doing it. If there were 8 billion people on this planet all living green - no problem. That can change? But, people need to get burned to believe in the fire. That's the biggest problem with this ... the specter of climate change moves at a pace below the threshold of human senses. People can't feel, see, taste or touch or hear it; though we are seeing that beginning to change with striking video. Still, it's not in people's back yards enough. 'Soon as people feel the nausea, they'll stop sipping the cool-aide that it's okay to profligate - hell, begin to realize that the way we've done this thing since the Industrial Revolution is even profligate in the first place. Generations have now lived and died, tucked inside the IR years since that great Human evolutionary turn begin to usurp Human societies... and their culture knows no other way.

I have a hypothesis growing ... one existentially based/anecdotal, but hey, ideas gotta start somewhere. Basically, we've already lost winters to global warming along the 45th parallel/ E of ORD. Zomb! Firstly, that doesn't mean it can't snow - don't panic just yet. Though such a future is unavoidable some years to decades in the future, for now it just means that the averages are already now breaching a base-line that is too warm to support cryo months. Most run-ins with cold and concomitant snows are going to be more pattern specific...thus, ephemeral in nature. We have to remember, there are no neat and tidy boundaries in the atmosphere. Climate zones are moving N; we know this is true as it is being empirically shown, and, these emergence' fit climate models - both primitive and more recently sophisticated. Be that as it may that does not mean it won't snow and get brutally cold, if perhaps spanning ever shorter duration(s) south of the perceived climate transition "boundaries" - virtual in nature...etc, etc. That all said, my hypothesis is that a climate transition virtual boundary has already shifted north of the Mid Atlantic and New England regions from central latitudes and S. Part of that is formulated by the personal observation that more and more ... we seem to not get cryo-supportive events/air masses S of the 45th parallel across the conus and locally, *unless* there is an antecedent -EPO. It seems to be we are whittling away other teleconnectors that were always capable of doing it. The negative North Atlantic Oscillations seem less effectual in delivering cold - though they are rarefied in recent decade as a separate matter. The PNA can be positive, yet we're throwing up raining coastal storm types along the eastern seaboard, and also...as papers are publishing recently, the mean storm tracks are observed(ing) migrating N; these +PNA's are delivering more "Lakes Cutter" type tracks. Also a warmer trajectory for the TV-eastern OV/NE regions. The East Pacific Oscillation domain space is very high in latitude, up over the Alaskan sector and adjacent lower Beaufort sea and N Pac/ NW Territories of Canada, and in fact, ...overlaps the Arctic Oscillation domain space. When that field is negative ( i.e., blocking heights and or directive cold loading into N/A), it is sort of like "the last of the cold delivery teleconnectors" to go. The larger scale geological/geographical circumstance in the way N/A is situated and immediately relays off the Pacific, "encourages" the EPO to bulge, and tap cold - if we look at the last 240 months of NASA averages, we see a relative cool offset over N/A for this reason. With the PNA and NAO seemingly reducing efficacy, the EPO has become much more the primary effective cold loading Canada and point south over the continent. The PNA and NAO, both seemed to to be less proficient in doing so within their own index correlations. These ladder indices share much more domain space with mid latitudes - particularly true in the PNA. The NAO is similar to the EPO, but ...the western limb of NAO's domain space is over a region of Canada that has been experiencing elevating temperatures even in winter months - so in the means..there's plausibility for research there, that perhaps the -NAOs are not as effective as they used to be at delivering cold to 40 N ( ORD-BOS). I have noticed that we are either partial/below normal temperature distribution/anomalies therein, with -EPOs, or... we seem to go right back to a new rest state that features vastly above normal temperatures. It's like one or the other, with less "normal" days in between. Normal days in climate ...they are almost as rare as any given departure, because they are just numbers that precipitate out of arithmetic means... But, the scatter plots are showing greater departures/extremes - and that is more like the new normal. If we took the EPO's out entirely? I think we have 60 to 70 F winters.

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions. It's enabling in a way... We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming. I find that fascinating. It's almost like ( being artsy and fun here...) Gaia can't get through to us, so she/he/it is turning up the oven to "Clean" while we are safe here outside the planet incinerating.. Can't sterilize the planet if it's chief asshole constituent toxifiers are in on it, so we get protected while the mass extinction bite species' dust -

Fwiw - https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2913/2019-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-tied-for-second-lowest-on-record/

It's worth it to mention it because when in the weeds of any crisis for that matter, the general human tendency toward histrionic reactionary thinking is primordially driven - in other words, as the individual integrates the society, et al, said society cannot help but react first, then, dust off. Unfortunately, that doesn't lend to seeing the field above the weeds, which is a perspective that happens later, but is one that is needed now. The reality is, there are technologies that can make all these environmental toxicity dilemmas, Earth, Air and Sea a thing of the past. That's incontrovertible ... yet, excuses and rationalism start churning out of the "inability-to-acceptance" engine. And that spin-machine has the advantage in this sorely needed enlightenment battle - they are anchored in the status quo. If people from all walks and ranks of society could be made aware that they really don't have to sacrifice ( that much ...perhaps a little at first) of their current way of life in order for all to achieve the quasi utopic/harmonious coexistence with natural states, ... but they are being blocked from seeing that. It's fascinating "soft conspiracy," and how it is evasively dodging that awareness from even getting a toe-hold. And this soft conspiracy I call it, .. basically when common interests works toward a convergent goal, more so than anything paranoid or orchestrated by fine cigar smoke strata over top posh leathery dens of the cabal, they masterfully make the alternatives scary. You know where the real fear is? The real fear is the owners of big industry ...and next of economic kin peering down the ladder. It's their fear. They fear their gravy boats being emptied by a necessary redress in the the ways and means of a society they've also relied upon ignorance and assumption to exploit. That which they've luxuriously presided over, no longer favors the pot-liquor they'll need to make their gravy. They know that. We really are in some way living the end days of that cinema .. where the opulence realizes it's over, or denies that it must be. That's the infuriating aspect. From A G W, to plastic-ocean paradigms, and blah blah blah ... these are all directly a result of the Industrial Revolution and profligate blithe, all geared together by an ambitions everyone bought into spanning generations. Conned into thinking they, too, could win that American dream... And these are the societies that led the way when the IR occurred; they immediately channeled economic ambition, nothing else. It's not so funny; the proportions are essentially correct. Closed combustion engines and/or the panoply of advancing chemistry ensued zero-gap conclusion: "we are going to make a fortune." It wasn't, we are going to advance medicine in ways that extend human life so long and ubiquitously, we don't need to overpopulate. It wasn't ambitions in science in general, ...discovery truths. You know, I've over heard it expressed that organized religion got in the way of the advancing evolution of society ... I'd say money is just as powerful of a God. Which all that of course took place with zero checks-and-balances - can't have those getting in the way of the mighty dollar. Formulation/projection of ethics in the exploitation of natural resources ( necessary to power the Industrial Revolution ) along the way? That had zero chance of taking place once IR tapped into money-reward-circuitry. I don't even know if this is cynicism toward humanity, either. Honestly, you almost give the page turner generation a pass, because countless generations suffered and died young and tragically through the millennia. Sensing the advantages of the IR, from every day access to basic provisions, to fending off diseases ... and just the gestalt for favoring outlooks in general: it was almost avenging the ghosts of those that never had those advantages. So we leaped, and the party went nuts! These ramification were yet to come, yet be discovered. All there was at the time was improving survival odds. Nature is like that ... it doesn't invent things for the sake of invention, such that we do among our many charms. Nature only emerges out of necessity. What part of the natural setting and Darwinism ever required asking if eating a turkey sandwich when one is starving now, might lead to a some calamity in a year. These so called checks-and-balances, they were always administered by the limitations of the ecology. We come along with these powers of ingenuity, and have really outpaced those limitations. But that's not going to last forever. And once the detrimental discoveries were evidenced and continue to do so, to persist along said detrimental course, I don't know what you call that - "collective sociopathy?" It's both.. There are captains of industry that are completely consumed in self and this mantra that they'll be dead in 100 years so it won't matter - they presently are the ballast of "string puller" movers and shakers, too. They could not be more self-centered and clearly failing baser moral culpability. Yet, because they operate within the confines of the societal norm to do so, they are not perceived that way? That's partial in being the weeds. Then there are those that just don't know any better, because the cause-and-effect of the A in the A G W ...is just too untenable to their comprehension, so it is easier to just rely upon traditional nationalism, toe-the line and listen to the marketing that always gave comfort - that same social force that is put on the captain's cheerleaders and lobbyists, and special interests in general. For the rest of us, we just watch the hands on the Doomsday clock tick closer to midnight, powerless to stop it. Now that humanity is evolved technologically enough ... many of that profligate ways and means used to power the industrial-complex ...and sate the greed-economic engine that generations spanning a time in history got to benefit and live like kings and queens, are no longer necessary. Industry can be motivated by 'green' tech, to the extent that any reliance whatsoever upon the old fossil-fuel model can be so minor that the natural background geological/biological processes of this planet can absorb and make negligible. Yet, we won't do it, or, if we are, that adaptation is most likely too slow. Nope, sate greed first or die - that's the epitaph of Humanity should this "non-sustainability" dictate policy.

Yeah, I believe you and I discussed this a bit over a month ago regarding the "thermal residence/memory" - this year seemed to smack of some of that if you recall, in that there was a late 'time-relative' occurrence of the 2019 numbers slipping lower than 2012 post the annual nadir. It's always nice when we see other sources corroborating our own observations.

that's because those right side lines go off the top edge ... i.e., but clearly you studied it for awhile to tried and use your mind, so I say we are making progress.

why... they said the climate science is settled... what do you think that means Look your a either a troll, simply put ( and not even a rankably clever one) or are just not even mentally capable of this discussion so best of luck

Well... that's all I need to hear

An important logical flaw in "the climate doesn't cause " arguments is that it seems the denier is too myopic and linear-dimensional in their cause-and-effect grasping. Perhaps it's a mental capacity ... Or a moral one. "Climate" does not maintain an operational presence in the daily dynamical interactivity that takes place in the environment. There is a population ballast that cannot seem to make the next leap of reasoning. Climate used to simply be 100 day, 100 temps, sum(t)/n-terms = the temperature climate across that hundred days. But here's the rub ... that number doesn't tell you anything about the 'character' of your data, whether those temperatures are trending up, or down .. the nature of the extremes ( anomalies) etc. What climate is now, is a description of those tendencies - and it is patently clear this latter aspect is untenable either by personal choice, or personal limitation is said ballast. Because not only is it rising, that rise is no longer linear.. It's curved upward. IF the frequency of big anomalies in a system is also increasing, and, that increase naturally connotes thus the probability of those events are also, and MATCHES what is presently happening ( yet exceeds) it must therefore be statistical significant. By and large - and this can be at times the writing of the scientist, sure - when one mentions the term climate in deference to wild fires, flood food or famine ...tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards and so forth... they are not saying the climate "caused" the event, they are saying: You are in a climate that favors these things happening - more over ... a NEW one ( ding ding: what do we call that, class!?)

Let me ask you something, when a given set of statistic that looks sorta like this ... what do you see?

Speculatively ? Yes. Certitude mm ...certainty is a difficult word for scientists. I think last year had some legit bad luck - if you will. We can get a lot of nickle and dime events out of fast flows in an overall speed rich environment, but the storm track last year averaged ever so slightly too far NW - which unfortunately is prescribed in the EXC model.. But, it can slip back SE all of 200 miles and still satisfy both worlds.

As this is a tedious exercise in subjectivity ... I'm sure this will roll-eyes in the same vane, but I agree with that Dr. Dew user. That warm March in particular in 2012 was a truly extraordinary event, considering the preceding some 200 years of both reanalysis and/or empirical-based climate construction(s). That should be on the list, imho - One particular reason that is important for me is that it was one of the few examples spanning the last 20 years ... when mid latitudes of N. America experienced the type of anomalies that have become more common place abroad. I think that's an important distinction. Our above normals seem to not be in the best of the best ... save that event, and perhaps the heat wave in the mid west to mid Atlantic later that summer. I think the specter of 2015's February should also rank highly but it gets and a question for two reason: a, it was more local to SNE and N. M/A.... and b, the snow was a lower pwat anomaly, which sort of 'inflated' depth. From there drill down to specific events... obviously very few using this past-time/social media would probably rank 1953 Worcester Tornado but that's a high ranker. Then, 1978 February... etc etc..

I don't mind a back-loaded winter idea ... Hate it, but can see intellectually why one may assess things that way - if they are considering the latest school of what's happenin' now. The Hadley Cell ( ambient tropical height bulge that extends some latitude N/S of the equatorial trough ...usually terminating in the subtropical band(s) ) has been expanding over recent decades: Birner, T., S. M. Davis, and Dian J. Seidel, 2014: The changing width of Earth’s tropical belt. Physcis Today, 67, 38–44, doi:10.1063/PT.3.2620. Why that is important: It may be over a lot of readers heads in here ? ( seems that way... but I don't know ), but, when you have a surplus thermal energy source in a system that relies upon systemic circulation/integrated with thermodynamics to remove it, that is going to take more time than when/if said region does not have said surplus. This happened last year. As late in the season as early February ... NCEP noted that the atmospheric circulation in the broader scope and scale was not demonstrating that it was coupled to the ENSO state... In simple terms, the El Nino - regardless of its form - was irrelevant. A mild warm ENSO event will not couple to the atmosphere as readily during an expanded Hadley Cell, as it will when said tropical circulation is less expanded. The reason for that is "integrate-ability" ... You need gradient to do that... When the Hadley balloons, the gradient which is where the Hadley Cell kisses the Ferral Cell latitude, slips too far N or S of the ENSO latitudes and that's kinda of a geo-physical ball-game. So,... long about early mid February... the "deflating" processing had elapsed long enough that the gradient crept south and then... boom, we triggered more atmospheric response. The only problem is... February is a spring month already for the kiss-latitudes of the HC and FC circulation eddies of the large scaled general circulation of the atmosphere... Anyway, if a given ENSO event is more intense, that may 'trigger' earlier in this sense.... to which this ain't that. We are supposedly in a modest warm anomaly that is < +.5 and should fit all safe a snug inside the confines of the HC... and the surrounding atmosphere's of the mid levels/latitudes will remain blissfully unaware because of it... I could see that lasting similar to last year... As an after though, it may be why the flow has at times looked more NINA -like despite. But ... this isn't absolute. Anomalies relative to anomalies happen too - we could be right about all this and still clock a 30" juggernaut on December 10, just before going back to the same mildish ennui. And everyone would claim this circuitry of reasoning above isn't true because of that storm ... of course.

how about "notsnowmeggetin ' " does anyone ever have the plumbs to make that call ?